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If the probability of loosing a sport bet is 3/4 in every game, what is the right way to calculate the probability of loosing two bets with the same odds two times in a row ? and three times ? and so on ? [serious]
Help calculating odds of martingale betting strategy [Probability]
Hi Reddit. I've been having a discussion with a friend about using a martingale betting strategy. The basic strategy is that you bet $1 and if you loose you double it and keep doubling it until you win e.g.:
You have now spent $1 + $2 + $3 = $7 to win $8 which means that you have made a profit of $1. Now my friend claims that the only way to stop this strategy is for the casino to cap maximum bets. Now I believe that this couldn't be the only safeguard as a casino would be MUCH more careful with their money. I have looked up the wikipedia article and they claim you will lose money and provided their analysis however that assumes you have finite money. Assuming you had infinite money (i.e. you could have an infinite sufficiently large losing streak) would this strategy be guaranteed to make you money? Also could someone help me derive an expression for the expected return given a % chance of winning? Thanks and hope this isn't too cluttered Edited infinite losing streak to near infinite.
Bankroll management is arguably the most important concept to understand to maximize your chances of success (or rather, minimize your chances of failure). Consider this scenario: You magically become a world-class handicapper and can win 55% of your bets on -110 lines. Did you know that with a $1,000 bankroll and flat betting $100 per game at -110 lines, you would go broke ~14.0% of the time after 100 bets? After 1,000 bets the chances of you going broke are a more staggering ~31.0%. Why does this happen? Despite a positive expected value, you’re betting too much. And this gives you a high risk of ruin. Kelly Criterion With a 55% win rate on -110 lines, the Kelly Criterion states that 5.5% of your bankroll is the ideal wager size to maximize the median return of your portfolio. So, what if we flat bet $55 instead, which represents 5.5% of our bankroll. What’s our risk of ruin then? After 100 bets? ~2.0% After 1,000 bets? ~13.0%. Better, but still significant risk of ruin. Some might be surprised to see any risk of ruin at a 5.5% bankroll allocation. One of the assumptions, however, that the Kelly Criterion relies on is that bet sizes are a percentage allocation of your portfolio and not a fixed amount. Among sports bettors, a fixed bet amount is frequently referred to as a bet “unit”. Bet Units vs Bet Allocation Record: 72-53 +13.7 units Patriots -7.5 2 units Sports bettors love to measure their performance or display their picks as a function of “units”. Most people use it and because of its widespread adoption, it’s easy to communicate between parties. Since it’s become the de facto unit of measurement for sports bettors, it is widely accepted that the best way to practice bankroll management is to 1) determine your wager size and 2) never deviate from that bet size. Let me explain the risks behind that strategy and why Cleat Street doesn’t recommend it. Flat Betting $55: Expected Value of 1,000 Bets We all know how to calculate the expected value, or EV, of a single bet. All you need is three inputs: 1) Payoff of a win (Pw): $50 2) Payoff of a loss (PL): -$55 3) Probability of winning (p): 55.0% EV Equation So - if we want to determine the EV of 1,000 bets, can we just multiply $2.75 x 1,000 and get an EV of $2,750? If you had unlimited funds, then yes. While there is variance around our expected win percentage, our ending bankroll would be normally distributed with a median of $3,750 ($1,000 starting bankroll + $2,750 EV). Without the constraint of going broke, the distribution of the ending bankroll looks as follows: Bankroll distribution However, most of us don’t have unlimited funds. We are constrained by our bankroll, so we must account for the possibility that we lose our entire bankroll at some point between Bet #1 and Bet #1,000. As a result, we might not get the chance to finish making all of the bets. Monte Carlo Simulation – Flat Betting To determine the likelihood and impact of going broke at some point between Bet #1 and Bet #1,000, we can use a Monte Carlo simulation. We simulated the 1,000 bet opportunities 10,000 times resulting in the following risk-return profile: Risk of Ruin: ~13.0% Expected Return: ~4.8% Median Return: ~ $2,645 Expected Portfolio ROI: ~265% Without the benefit of an unlimited bankroll, the risk of ruin decreases our EV by nearly 5%, decreasing from $2,750 to ~$2,645. Starting with a bankroll of $1,000, our median ending bankroll is ~$3,645 but has a distribution as displayed below: Ending Bankroll Distribution Bet Allocation of 5.5%: Expected Value of 1,000 Bets When you bet a percentage of your bankroll, the expected value calculation changes a bit. Your payoff outcomes are now framed as a percentage: 1) Payoff of a win (Pw): 5.0% 2) Payoff of a loss (PL): -5.5% 3) Probability of winning (p): 55.0% EV Equation To determine the EV of 1,000 bets, however, we cannot just multiply 0.275% x 1,000 and get an EV of 275%. This is because each bet compounds on one another when you are betting a percentage of your bankroll. Ok – so instead we determine the expected value by saying that you expect to win 550 bets (55% x 1,000) and lose 450 bets (45% x 1,000) and calculate by compounding the returns as follows: Median Calculation The above computation reflects the median of the distribution of outcomes as well as the most likely outcome. Yes, the most likely outcome is that you win exactly 550 games, which would generate returns of $2,967. However, this scenario happens only 2.54% of the time.  The rest of the time, you either win more than 550 games or less than 550 games.  Binomial probability inputs: Prob (Success): 55%, Num. Trials 1,000, Num. Successes, 550. Binomial Probability Calculator We get the following risk-return profile: Risk of Ruin: 0.0% Expected Return: 5.0% Median Return: $2,967 Expected Portfolio ROI: ~297% “So you’re telling me, I have no chance of losing my entire bankroll, and I can increase my EV? That sounds too good to be true.” You’re right – the above metrics are true, but they don’t tell the whole story. Although the risk of ruin is zero, there are many scenarios where you could still walk away a loser. To properly assess, we need to take a closer look at the distribution of outcomes. Lognormal Distribution The returns generated by using a bet allocation bankroll management strategy follow a lognormal distribution. A lognormal distribution is frequently used to describe the price of financial assets and effectively states that 1) the lowest that your bankroll can go is zero, and 2) your returns have a long-tail to the right. Visually, the distribution of the ending bankroll after 1,000 bets looks odd when plotted on a linear scale: 5.5% Bet Allocation - Linear Scale When plotted on a logarithmic scale, however the distribution appears normal (hence the name “lognormal”): 5.5% Bet Allocation - Logarithmic Scale As you can see in the distribution above, there are scenarios where you still walk away a loser after 1,000 bets. In fact, betting 5.5% of your bankroll in this scenario will lead you to losing money approximately 20 percent of the time. To properly assess the risk-return profile, we’ll have to take a deeper look at the full distribution of outcomes in Part II. What we’ll find is that although the Kelly Criterion is a betting strategy that maximizes median wealth in the long run, there are still considerable risks that may not make it ideal for most bettors. An underlying assumption is that it requires you to know your true win probability, which is impossible. In Part II, we explore Kelly Criterion in further depth and show how you can use the same principles to tailor a bankroll management strategy that better fits your risk appetite. Bankroll Management Part II will be posted tomorrow
If you are brand new to gambling, among those very first affairs which you ought to do is study how sports betting odds get the job done. It truly is critically essential as it enables one to fully grasp just how probable an event is to come about, and also exactly what your prospective winnings will probably undoubtedly be. In the beginning, it might seem perplexing, but study our guidebook and then let's clarify it for you personally. In gaming, chances signify the ratio involving the numbers by celebrations into some bet or guess. So, chances of 3 to 1 inch signal the very first bash (the bookmaker) bets three times the total staked from the next party (that the bettor). Just how Can Sports bet Odds Perform? Sports betting chances are intended to, so in a glimpse, provide people a notion of just how likely it really is that every team will triumph in addition to just how much you will produce using a prosperous wager on such final result. To put it differently, you need to utilize these to have yourself a fast concept of this underdog, and your favoured. To make a decision as to what chances they supply, bookmakers consider a reach of facets. This may possibly incorporate everything from exactly what additional Sportsbooks are presenting right through to the consequences of prior matchups. They will fix those chances in real-time, dependent on facets such as harms and also the current weather, in addition to that the quantity of cash supplied by bettors on just about every final result. What Exactly Is Probability? Even the most introductory amount, gambling supplies you with all the skills to anticipate the results of the particular celebration, also when a forecast is not right, and you will acquire more money. To almost any specific occasion, there really is a particular selection of results. Simply take rolling out a stunt for example. If a person rolls a dice, then you can find just six potential consequences. Hence, in the event you gamble that anyone rolls a '1 ', then there will be really a 16.67% opportunity which will take place. What gambling chances simply do is demonstrate the way the event is really to occur. so, a portion, i.e. 4/7, as the huge majority additionally offers you the capacity to look at them as decimals. Yet again, why do not we discuss? We all will eventually become evident. Odds - What to Pick? Selecting which arrangement of chances to produce if online sports betting is down to some question of private taste. This may most likely, however, perhaps not at all times, function as the form of chances associated by at which your home is. We have to find most of the sports betting internet sites give the choice to decide on which form of chances that you wish to see if you are taking a look at setting a bet. In addition, there are chances calculators out there that are able to enable you to switch between several kinds of odds. The very main point is the fact that it will not matter which kind of chances you prefer to make use of: you will not get or shed additional dollars by deciding upon a particular means of seeing chances. It hence creates the best way to pick the one which you're most relaxed together and utilize it if potential. Strategies for Putting a Wager You learn more on the topic of calculating betting, along with different techniques they can be displayed, then you should use this advice in your favor if setting the next wager. Under, you are going to discover a couple of our best hints for employing your new-found awareness about this subsequent bet you put!
Do Not Be Scared to Look Around
Many Sportsbooks will upgrade their chances predicated on real-life effects quicker than some others. Equipped with all the wisdom the way to exactly calculate prospective winnings, then you are able to find out exactly what constitutes the absolute most rewarding wager for you personally, in case you wind up profitable.
Check out frequently
It is crucial that you maintain a watch out for your likelihood, preferably utilizing a smartphone or tablet in the event that you should be about the go. In the event you notice chances switching fast in one path then it really is probably something that has shifted (e.g. weather conditions, spot, or some essential accident). This may possibly influence that which you right back into the competition, or how far you really bet.
Gauge the danger
Utilize exactly what you understand about chances to discover that which you look at as a decent degree of hazard in case gambling in an underdog. $1 wagered on 20/1 chances, as an instance, somewhat very low hazard stake regarding maximum drawback. Many bettors could but feel uneasy gambling $100 on 100/1 chances (in spite of the massive possible benefit) since the chances are stacked so heavily towards you personally.
Remain in the understand
Be sure that you benefit from insider understanding. Bookies, say, may possibly only possibly not be around date up what is happening in upcoming NFL fittings in contrast to a super fan who considers breaking-news reports. This really is the reason it could be of help to bet to a game you are a real lover of or do your homework before setting your stake.
Tennis Betting - Tips For Exchange Betting on Tennis Matches
By choosing tennis as your preferred sport for betting, you have already given yourself an "edge" against those who bet on or offer odds on other sports. To use this "edge" to make money consistently, however, you'll need to understand two fundamental principles first. Then apply the power of mathematics. Principle #1 It is sheer folly to place a tennis bet (or a bet on anything) with a "traditional" bookmaker. The expression "You can't beat the bookie" is axiomatic; you just cannot beat the bookie over time. It's because the odds are always mathematically calculated in favour of the bookmaker. Everyone knows (or should know) that the bookie's mathematical "edge" against the punter is necessary for him to make a profit so that he can stay in business. Computer technology has given rise to a new form of betting, known as "exchange betting" or "matched betting". With "betting exchanges" there is no bookie to beat; in other words, there is no middle-man. Every punter bets against another punter or punters somewhere out there in the Internet ether. Any punter (or "trader") can place a "back" bet that a player or team will win, and/or place a "lay" bet that a player or team will lose. Thus, any punter can choose to act as an ordinary bettor and/or as a bookmaker. With exchange betting the odds are not set by a third-party or middle-man; they are set by the punters themselves, who place requests for odds at which they are prepared to place bets (if they wish to act as an ordinary bettor), or place offers of odds at which they are prepared to lay bets (if they wish to act as a bookmaker). As the "back" bettors gradually lower their requested odds and the "lay" bettors gradually raise their offered odds, the software on the exchange betting web site matches all the back bets with all the lay bets at the instant they coincide. The accounts of the "backers" or "layers" are then credited with their winnings automatically a few seconds after the end of the event according to its result. Obviously, the technology for providing such a "fair" betting service must be paid for somehow. This payment is taken in the form of a commission on the punter's net winnings on an event (or "market"). That is, commission is charged only on any positive difference between winnings and losses on the same event. This betting system is as close to a perfectly fair betting environment as it is possible to achieve. There are very few betting exchanges in existence, however, perhaps because the exchange betting software is so complex and therefore costly. The giant among exchange betting web sites is Betfair, with about 90% of the market at the time of writing. Others are the Global Betting Exchange (BetDAQ), ibetX, Betsson, Matchbook and the World Bet Exchange (WBX). Betfair is by far the most popular because it was the first to offer this "perfectly fair" betting environment, and is trusted to perform accurately and instantly. Principle #2 So, why does tennis betting give you that "edge" over betting on other sports? The answer, though simple, is often overlooked even by those who bet tennis regularly. And if you're someone who's never bet on tennis, you'd almost certainly not have realized the significance of the tennis scoring system on the betting. Consider this fundamental difference between the tennis scoring system and that of probably any other sport you can think of. In other sports and games the trailing player or team must make up the points gap by winning a point for every point they have already lost in order to catch up to the leader. Only then can they start to move ahead. This fact seems obvious. In tennis, however, the trailing player or team can lose the first set 6-0 (possibly with a deficit of 24 points). That team can then win the second set by the most narrow of margins, 7-6 in a tie-break, winning the set by very few points (or even by winning fewer points than the opponents, a rare but possible occurrence!). As soon as the trailing player or team wins the second set, the two sides suddenly have even scores, even though one player or team might have actually won many more points than the opponents. This anomaly often has a profound psychological effect on one or both sides, which affects the way they play for the next few minutes, and therefore also the betting odds requested and offered by punters on the match. This, however, is another aspect of tennis betting which may be the subject of another article. This article deals with the mathematical aspect of tennis betting and how to win money with this knowledge. How to win at tennis betting Now that you're aware of these two fundamental principles, how can you use them to your advantage when making tennis bets? The key is not to be just a "backer" or a "layer", simply betting on the final outcome of an event. If you do that, you will lose out over time, because there's always a small difference between the "back" odds and the "lay" odds -- there must be, otherwise there'd be no incentive for anyone to offer odds and there'd be no betting at all. Combine that with the commission you pay on your net winnings, and the "edge" is against you mathematically (although it is not as great as with conventional bookmakers). The secret to winning at tennis betting is to be BOTH a "backer" AND a "layer", but at different points during the event. This is another aspect of betting that distinguishes the exchange betting web site from the traditional bookie. At the betting exchange you can place a back or lay bet at any time during the event, right up until the very last second or the final point. This is known as "in-play" betting. Because in-play betting is allowed, the odds for each opposing side change as the event progresses, according to the likelihood (as perceived by the punters) of either one side or the other being the eventual winner. The trick is to place a back bet on one side at certain odds and later place a lay bet on that side (or a back bet on the other side) at better odds as fortunes change and the odds swing in your favour. If you can achieve this, you will win your bet overall, regardless of the outcome of the event -- a true "win-win" scenario. Why bet on tennis and not on other sports? Apart from Principle #2, explained earlier, tennis is ideal for such "swing" betting, because the odds fluctuate after every point is played. There are therefore very many small swings to one side and then to the other. This doesn't happen in soccer, for example, because goals are so rare and a goal shifts the advantage suddenly and hugely to the scoring side. Furthermore, a tennis match can have one of only two results; there can be no draw or tie; and one of only two players or teams can win. In horse racing, for example, the winner can come from a large number of runners. The more possible outcomes there are to factor into the equation, the more difficult it is to win. (Despite this obvious logic, soccer and horse racing remain the two most popular sports for betting, probably for historical reasons. Tennis is already third in popularity, however, as more and more punters discover the fact that it is easier to make money betting on tennis than on any other sport.) "In-play" betting or "pre-event" betting? Now that you have -- it is hoped -- understood and absorbed the generalities of exchange betting and the peculiarities of tennis scoring, it is time to explain the details of how you can win at tennis betting. Earlier it was stated that the secret to winning at tennis betting is to be both a "backer" and a "layer", but at different points during the event, placing bets at different times during the event as fortunes change and the odds swing in your favour. This can be done with both "in-play" betting and "pre-event" betting. One method used with in-play betting is called "scalping". As its name suggests, scalping involves skimming a tiny profit by backing or laying at exactly the right moment as the odds move slightly in your favour, perhaps when one player scores two or three consecutive points, and repeating the process again and again. The biggest drawback of scalping is that it is very time-consuming and fraught with mental and physical tension. Not only must you pay full attention to what's happening during the match by live video broadcast, but you must also catch exactly the right moments at which to bet, which is, in fact, made impossible by the 5-second delay imposed by the exchange betting software between the time you place the bet and the time it is accepted. We're not elaborating on this here because, as stated previously, this article is about winning by mathematics, not by the sweat of your brow. The maths aspect involves betting, not during the event, but before the event starts. That is, pre-event betting. Mathematics do not lie! There are a few tennis betting "systems", some purely manual, others using software programs, some of which are enormously complicated. From the investigations of the writer (a mathematician), they all require the input, at some point, of a "probability factor" by the bettor. This probability factor is usually the odds at which you want your "balancing" bet (the "lay" bet on the "backed" side or the "back" bet on the opposing side) to be triggered, giving you the "win-win" scenario mentioned earlier. So, how do you determine the value of this probability factor? That, dear reader, is the crucial point of the whole matter, the linch-pin that holds any exchange betting "system" together and determines whether it succeeds or fails, whether you win or lose. Up to now, it seems, this probability factor has had to be determined by the sheer experience of a few seasoned professional gamblers, or by trial-and-error guesswork by lesser mortals. Little wonder that so many punters lose or do not win as much as they could because they do not know the EXACT value needed to optimize their bets! Accuracy is of paramount importance when determining the probability factor, in order to maximize the chances of winning consistently. A search on the Web for a tool to calculate it proved negative. The writer therefore created one that encompasses not only all aspects of exchange betting but also the peculiarities of the tennis scoring system, and called it the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator, for want of a better name. The probability factor is calculated to two decimal places, merely by entering the pre-event odds of both opposing sides, and has enabled the writer to make consistently more than 10% profit from tennis betting since Wimbledon 2009. As a parallel test, the writer also placed bets according to "gut feeling", in sufficient numbers to establish a trend. It resulted in a loss of 10% of the working capital (or "bank"). Other tests were done, using the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator, by betting on other sports where small odds swings occur, such as American Football, snooker and darts (very long matches only, otherwise the swings are too large). The results here just about covered the commissions paid on winnings; so, it is not worthwhile. It seems, then, that the particular mathematical formula or algorithm (which is very complex) discussed here works well only in conjunction with the unique scoring system of tennis. Conclusion As a scientist, the writer feels that it is highly probable to win at sports betting consistently over time only when the following factors are present:
An exchange betting web site is used, not a conventional betting web site. (Beware of many sites that pretend to offer exchange betting by appearing in search engine results for "exchange betting"! Ensure that their software system enables you both to back and to lay bets at any odds you want against other punters, not against the house. If in doubt, check that their web site looks like the one at Betfair.)
The sport is tennis, because of its unique scoring system.
AND 3(a) You learn about and become experienced in in-play betting and are prepared to devote almost all your time glued to a computer screen while following each match, sometimes more than one simultaneously. OR 3(b) You use software that tells you exactly the odds to request and offer and the stakes to place in pre-event betting in only a few minutes, thus allowing you to get on with your normal life.
[Cryoverse] The Last Precursor 013: Repairing the Bloodbearer
The Last Precursor is a brand new HFY-exclusive web-serial which focuses on the exploits of the last living human amidst a galaxy of unknown aliens. With his species all but extinct and only known as the ancient Precursors, how will Rodriguez survive in this hostile universe? Make sure to read the earlier chapters first if you missed them! Join the TLP Discord! Previous Part Part 001 ....................................... José Rodriguez, the last living Terran, slowly opens his eyes. A plain metal ceiling, covered in plexi-steel tiles, sits some twenty feet above his face. The Admiral lays motionless on his back, his arms and legs held limp in a straight pose. A strange sensation swallows him, akin to floating on a gently undulating ocean while riding atop a piece of plywood. "Hello, Admiral," Umi beeps. "You slept for seventeen hours and fourteen minutes. How are you feeling?" The Terran doesn't reply. He continues to stare at the ceiling while countless thoughts and emotions mix with the strange, lucid dreams he left behind only a minute before. They're all dead. José closes his eyes. Everyone I have ever known. My friends. My comrades. My superiors. My enemies. Even the people I took for granted, those who merely 'existed' and caused me no grief. Every last one of them is long gone. I can't ever see them again. Slowly, the Admiral turns his head to the left. The eleven-foot-long cot from his personal quarters, its bedding material as hard as a rock after 100,000,000 years of calcification, provides no comfort for the Admiral. His 'pillow' proves little more than a flat, half-inch-tall piece of rock. Were it not for his durable body, merely laying on the bed would probably give him all manner of aches and pains. As the Admiral looks around the room, a mixture of nostalgia and sadness glides throughout his veins. A second cot on the opposite side of the room, the bed his former bunkmate once used, Private Azaram, sits empty and covered in a thick layer of dust. A pair of lockers sit against the wall, between both bunks. In José's former life, he might have chatted with Private Azaram when they woke up. They would shoot the shit, tease each other a bit, and yap about all the vague mundanities of life. But no longer will that happen. José stares at his bunkmate's empty bed. Unbidden, a memory floats to the top of his mind. Yo, José, I hear you knocked your lady up. So, you gonna pop the question? Come on, man. Can't hurt to settle down for a couple decades, raise an ankle-biter, then return once you've had your fun. I'm too busy for that, Kiki. Don't give me that crap. The war's been raging for hundreds of thousands of years. One soldier taking twenty years off to raise a kid won't change anything. It will for me. I shouldn't have gotten involved with her. That's love, man. Love! You know what that means, right? You've gotta stop running away from everything. She'll be better off without me. José... The memory fades. José continues to stare at the other cot for several long seconds afterward. "Admiral." Umi's voice beeps above, as she prods the Terran again. "I know you are awake. I have observed your brainwaves shifting into the green spectrum." Admiral Rodriguez sighs. "Just leave me alone for a few minutes." "...Very well." Umi falls silent, leaving José to his thoughts. Slowly, the Admiral moves his left leg toward the edge of the bed. He gently lowers it to the floor, then follows with his right. After twenty or so seconds, he pushes himself into a sitting position and coughs. A small cloud of dust kicks up around him, but he ignores it. José sits on the edge of his bed. He leans forward, face in hands, elbows on his knees. I'm sorry, Evelyn. Tears well up in the Terran's eyes. The shock of the last two days creeps into the back of his mind as he finally takes some time to sit down and sort through his emotions. I left you behind, and our child. I don't even know if it was a boy or a girl. José lifts his thin, gangly arm, and presses his fingers against his eyelids. After wiping away a few tears, he sniffles quietly. What the hell am I supposed to do? Do I even have a reason to live? His thoughts shift back to all the pointless mundanities he once pursued. Promotions. Killing. The envy of his peers. The respect of his benefactor, Ramma. José opens his eyes and glances at a small bedside dresser. With its former brown coloration lost to the passage of time, it now appears white as snow. The lone furniture piece on José's side appears to be on its last legs, as if a gentle nudge would cause it to crumble into dust. Only the lack of oxygen in the room for millions of years has allowed it to remain standing for so long. However, José's eyes look toward the top of the dresser, where a broken picture frame rests. With its glass having long-since decayed into sandy particles along with the glue holding its wooden sides together, the portrait lies in a heap atop the dresser, apparently having fallen forward and broken at some point. Slowly, José reaches over and nudges aside the frame's wooden edges. He pulls out a brown piece of paper, its corners curled, upon which a person's portrait used to rest. Now, its faded coloration shows nothing. José turns the piece of paper around in his hands, searching for any modicum of familiarity. Despite nothing being on its surface, his mind still fills in the image of a smiling, brown-haired woman's face. "Evelyn..." The Admiral lowers his hand and drops the worthless scrap to the floor. His shoulders slump as he leans forward, even more broken than before. Mulling on the immense physical pain he endured during the surgery, as well as the loss of everyone he ever cared about, José's thoughts turn truly dark as he begins to imagine the barrel of a plasma carbine pressing against his skull. It would be so easy. No more pain. No more worries. Maybe I could see her again and... apologize. The Admiral's stomach growls, reminding him that he hasn't eaten even once in the last two days. Still, he doesn't move. "...Umi." "Yes, Admiral? How are you feeling? I'm presently detecting large amount of negative emotions within your-" "I don't give a damn what you detect," José mutters. "Just shut up and answer some questions for me." "Affirmative, Admiral," Umi replies without complaint. "Ask whatever you wish." However, José hesitates. He closes his eyes and sighs. "Do... do you have any... any audio logs? Video logs? Of the other crew, I mean. The deceased." "Negative, Admiral. In the event of a gradual system collapse, my subsystems will automatically convert high-capacity files involving video and audio to text format to save space. I have already converted all available audio and video logs to text, as per my system's parameters. If I did not perform those operations, I would have experienced a much larger amount of overall data loss." "Oh. I see." The Admiral's body seemingly increases in weight. A creeping sense of isolation hits him, making him feel hopeless and lonely. "Not even one person's voice remains. All I have are my memories." "Admiral? Are you... in pain?" "Not physically." Umi's voice lowers. "You have endured an extreme amount of trauma, as of late. The body may heal, but the mind is not always so resilient. I would advise an immediate psychiatric evaluation, if possible, but..." The synthmind trails off, making José nod. "Who's left for me to talk to? Nobody. Just a bunch of aliens. Strangers I barely know." "I have undergone a high-level of degradation to my Emotion Cores," Umi says. "Therefore, I am unable to properly offer counsel on this matter. However, it seems logical to me that you should at least attempt to speak to one of the Kraktol about your concerns, Admiral." "I can't do that," José says. "Megla still considers me her enemy. Soren is probably friendlier than her sister, but she's still an unknown factor. If I reveal weakness in front of them, then perhaps I won't be able to keep them under control. Who knows what they might do when I turn my back?" "Admiral. You seem to distrust the Kraktol conscripts. If so, why did you bring them aboard the Bloodbearer? This move seems... illogical." "I'm human, Umi. I don't operate logically. Even I don't know why I let them come with me." Shakily, José pushes himself off the bed and rises to his feet. His legs tremble visibly as he staggers toward the nearby wheelchair and plops into its embrace. His arms and legs appear slightly more muscular than when he first left the surgery room, but nevertheless, they're far too weak to support his current weight. "If the Kraktol wished you harm, they could have killed you immediately following the operation," Umi says. "You weren't capable of defending yourself. The holo-crew would have posed little threat to the Kraktol, given their limited intelligence. Perhaps you should revise your opinion of Officers Soren and Megla." "Perhaps," José answers, noncommittally. "For now... I can't trust anyone. I don't have a solid understanding of the political situation inside the Milky Way. I don't know who any of the major powers are. I already have at least one major enemy, but no allies." Umi starts to reply, but José cuts her off. "The Kessu don't count. They're primitives. I doubt they'll be a major galactic power I can rely on for support and logistics." "...Understood, Admiral," Umi replies, her voice low. "It seems that we must attempt to establish communication with the Kraktol's enemies. According to the data I've recovered, the Mallali and Avaru are our best bet." "I'll worry about that later," the Admiral says. "Right now, repairing the Bloodbearer is my number one priority." José reaches for his wheelchair's controls. He starts to drive it outside, but pauses. Slowly, the Admiral lowers his gaze to the faded, cracked piece of paper sitting on the floor. The only image he ever had of Evelyn. The Terran turns his gaze away. With a small shake of his head, he drives toward the doorway, leaving his room behind. Too many painful memories here. Perhaps I should make Admiral Baruchen's quarters mine after all. ... José rolls forward on the wheeled machine in silence for five minutes. Eventually, he speaks to Umi. "Where are Soren and Megla?" "The two Kraktol woke up from their slumber five hours and six minutes ago, Admiral," Umi replies. "Since you stressed the importance of time and our limited resources, I took the initiative to guide them toward the engine ventilation system. Under my guidance, the two of them have cleaned out approximately 0.0054% of the accumulated debris and waste byproduct. The Bloodbearer will only reach low-operational-status once your crew clears out at least 20% of the oxidization clogging the engines." "Mmm. Have those women meet up with me along the way." "Orders received. Admiral, I must also mention a severe lack of resources for food production aboard the Bloodbearer. The biomatter storage is currently at 0% after I discarded all the hardened, rotted material. I was able to create some basic ration bars for the Kessu and Kraktol, but their nutritional value was negligible and every officer complained about the taste." José groans. "No food. No engines. No allies. The whole ship is broken. Can't I get some good news for once?" "Affirmative," Umi beeps in response. "The Kessu and Kraktol did not engage in verbal warfare while you were asleep. According to my calculations, this represents an improvement in their relations of 7.5%." "...Thanks, Umi." José says, his voice dripping with sarcasm. "I don't know what I would do without you." Umi replies with a sugary-sweet tone. "According to my predictive matrix; you would die." José's only reply is a long, low groan. ....................................... "Admiral!" Soren says, her voice containing a note of alarm. She and Megla trot toward José as he rolls down the Bloodbearer's primary connective corridor, arriving at his position after a few moments. "Are you alright? Your body seemed to be heavily injured when I last saw you." "I'm dandy," José grumbles. "Just wonderful." The Admiral glances at Megla. He waits for a snarky comeback, only to almost fall out of his chair when she speaks. "That's great, Admiral. I was- I mean, we were really worried about you. We, ah... we thought you wouldn't make it. I'm glad you're okay." José blinks several times to make sure he isn't still sleeping. "You were... concerned? About me?" Megla crosses her arms and looks away. "Erm... only a little." The Terran shakes his head to try and clear away the cobwebs in his brain. "I see. Well, thank you for your concern. I'm much weaker than before, so I can hardly move on my own. I hope you two will assist me in repairing the Bloodbearer's systems." The Admiral's gaze falls toward both Kraktol officer's waists, where steel belts hang with a small assortment of attached repair tools. The two womens' usually pristine red and yellow scales appear dirty, caked with dirt and grease. "Of course, Admiral," Soren says. She walks behind José's wheelchair and grabs its top handles to push him forward. "What are you doing?" José asks, suspicion in his voice. "I don't believe you should be expending any energy, Admiral. Please allow me to guide you wherever you please. It would be best if you could relax and leave the hard work to my sister and I." Before José can reply, Megla strides over to Soren's side and huffs. "Kyargh! Let me push the Admiral. I'm sure you're still tired from sticking your head inside that greasy ventilation duct." "No need," Soren says, a faint smile on her face. "I can handle this simple task." "I know you can," Megla protests. "But so can I! Hmph, listen to your big sister for once, why don't you?" Soren's smile widens. "You seem awfully eager to get close to the Admiral." "I-I'm not!" Megla yelps, her yellow scales brightening intensely. She takes a step away from Soren with a strange look in her eyes. "I... I just want to help!" "Kuhak!" Soren laughs. Her usual stoic demeanor cracks slightly upon seeing her sister's flustered look. "Something seems to have changed with your heart, Megla." José sighs. "Ladies. Please. Stop fighting over me like I'm a piece of meat. We don't have time to waste. I'll drive myself to the Engine Room. You just walk alongside me and listen. I have a lot of information to relay." Both Kraktol women frown for a moment before hiding their emotions. With a sigh, Soren pulls away from José and raises her palms. "I see. My apologies, Admiral. I did not mean to insult your abilities. You can surely move yourself if necessary." The Admiral looks into the disappointed eyes of Soren, before glancing at Megla afterward. Both of them appear miffed that he would ignore their genuine, heartfelt offers. However, José ignores their silly behavior. "Come along. I want to examine the engine room's condition for myself." Soren lowers her head. "Yes, Admiral..." "Do what you want," Megla snorts, her annoyance plain as day. She crosses her arms and walks beside José on his left, while Soren walks on his right. They begin heading toward the engine room at a pace neither too fast, nor too slow. An awkward silence ensues. After a few minutes, José clears his throat. "Did Umi explain the mechanics of a Triple-Induction Drive to either of you?" Soren shakes her head. "No. We asked several questions, but the synthmind did not answer. She only guided us on the cleaning and repair process for the engine exhaust vents." From above, Umi speaks. "Admiral. Given the two Kraktol are newly acquired crew-members, and given their origins, I have registered them as 'initiate crew.' Unless you remove the restriction on Class 4 information and below, I will be unable to provide them with information regarding this ship's features or technical blueprints. Based upon the information I've collected from the Dragon Breath's databases, the galaxy at large is unaware of the capabilities of 40th and 50th Era technology. Very few factions possess ships from later than the 30th era, so I have calculated that classifying this information as Top Secret is a prudent move." José nods. "I agree. However, Soren and Megla are now officers of this vessel. In the future, please provide them with any general information of Class 3 and below as their knowledge-base evolves. I'll evaluate the rest on a case-by-case basis." The Admiral speaks openly with Umi right in front of the Kraktol, allowing both of them to hear his words. They glance at each other out of the corners of their eyes and sigh. The Admiral doesn't trust us. Given he's only known us for a day, that's to be expected. ... It doesn't take long before José and the Kraktol arrive at the entrance to the Bloodbearer's Engine Bay. Its entry doors, barely maintained by one of the six Filth Expunger Units over the past 100,000,000 years, slowly slide open. The top and bottom squeal in a most annoying manner due to a large amount of rust accumulation, but the three officers ignore the awful sound. Jose arrives inside a large, circular chamber, easily twice as big as an open-air football stadium. In the center of the room, three giant circular metal platforms sit next to one another in a triangular formation. They hum with energy, causing the air inside the room to vibrate and rattle all three officers' teeth. An energy field twenty meters tall rises toward the ceiling above each platform, where a second set of platforms on the roof meet the field and keep its energy circulating to form a powerful containment field. Inside the energy fields, three giant orbs of explosive-looking energy rapidly whirl around, revealing themselves to be the cause of the intense, energetic humming sensation. Hundreds of thick, Terran-body-width cables stick out of the walls and slink along the ground, connecting to the platforms on the floor, but also the ceiling. They suck the leftover energy from the energized orbs away to power the rest of the ship, preventing them from detonating with high-yield nuclear explosions. Countless robotic arms, long-since rusted-over, stick out of the engine room's walls. Only twenty or so move around and poke at the various computer consoles scattered throughout the room, but it appears clear to José and the Kraktol that this room is just as decayed and dilapidated as the rest of the ship. "Damn..." José mutters. "Even more things to repair. The work never ends. The inventor of bio-fusion once claimed his power sources would last for a billion years, so I guess he was right after all. The ship is likely to break long before the reactors lose their charge." Soren gestures toward the far wall. "The synthmind had us clean the ventilation ducts over there. I only scraped out out the interiors of the first five, but more than a hundred remain." Nodding, José says, "Yes, but cleaning the engine ventilation ducts is only the first step. We also need to clean and maintain the plasma warp conduits, then exit the ship and decalcify the exterior engines. Beyond that, we have to examine the damage this sector's plasma storm has likely caused the Bloodbearer's hull. If there are any breaches on the exterior, we must seal them up before entering Folded Space." Soren's eyes flash with hunger. "Admiral, didn't you tell us you were going to explain the Triple Induction Drive and Folded Space? I'm dying to know more." José smiles. "Oh, yes. I had almost forgotten! Haha, your thirst for knowledge is quite admirable." The Terran wheels toward one of the many nearby broken computer consoles. He gestures toward Megla's toolbelt, prompting her to step closer. Despite the weakness in his body and his atrophied limbs, his shaking and trembles appear to have mostly worn off since resting, so he easily snatches three odd-looking pen-gadgets from her before turning to the console. Whirr. Bzzt. José's hands become a blur as he gets to work fixing the first of many computers within the Engine Room. "A Triple-Induction Drive is not something those from the 30th era would know much about, given how long it took us Terrans to perfect that technology..." Both of the Kraktol lean in to listen as José explains this incredible technology and its uses to them. Next Part ....................................... Author Note: Klokinator here! I am also the author of The Cryopod to Hell. The Last Precursor takes place in the [Cryoverse] which TCTH spawned. You do not have to read TCTH to enjoy TLP. However, I highly recommend it if you enjoy HFY themes, but be warned it will take some 200 parts to get to the relevant HFY elements due to the nature of the story. (A similar structure involving very few humans fighting against vicious demons that have taken over the galaxy.) If you like this story, please consider subscribing to my Patreon! I am very poor and presently jobless due to Coronavirus, so every dollar helps. You get access to Cryopod artwork, and plenty of other exclusive posts, with more to come soon. Thank you!
Bitch you better read if you want your Robinhood to look like this: gainz, bitch Why am I telling you this? Because I like your dumb asses. Even dickbutts like cscqb4. And because I like seeing Wall St. fucking get rekt. Y’all did good until now, and Wall St. is salty af. Just google for “retail traders” news if you haven’t seen it, and you’ll see the salty tears of Wall Street assholes. And I like salty Wall St. assholes crying like bitches. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-investors-are-crushing-hedge-funds-again That said, some of you here are really motherfucking dense & the sheer influx of retardation has been driving away some of the more knowledgeable folks on this sub. In fact, in my last post, y'all somehow managed to downvote to shit the few guys that really understood the points I was making and tried to explain it to you poo-slinging apes. Stop that shit yo! A lot of you need to sit the fuck down, shut your fucking mouth and listen. So I'm going to try and turn you rag-tag band of dimwits into a respectable army of peasants that can clap some motherfucking Wall Street cheeks. Then, I'm going to give you a mouthbreather-proof trade that I don't think even you knuckleheads can mess up (though I may be underestimating you). If you keep PM-ing me about your stupid ass losses after this, I will find out where you live and personally, PERSONALLY, shit on your doorstep. This is going to be a long ass post. Read the damned post. I don't care if you're dyslexic, use text-to-speech. Got ADHD? Pop your addys, rub one out, and focus! Are you 12? Make sure to go post in the paper trading contest thread first. THE RULES:
Understand that most of this sub has the critical reading skills of a 6 year old and the attention span of a goldfish. As such, my posts are usually written with a level of detail aimed at the lowest common denominator. A lot of details on the thesis are omitted, but that doesn't mean that the contents in the post are all there is to it. If I didn't do that, every post'd have to be longer than this one, and 98% of you fucks wouldn't read it anyway. Fuck that.
Understand that my style of making plays is finding the >10+ baggers that are underpriced. As such, ALL THE GOD DAMN PLAYS I POST ARE HIGH-RISK / HIGH-REWARD. Only play what you can afford to risk. And stop PM-ing me the second the market goes the other way, god damn it! If you can't manage your own positions, I'm going to teach your ass the basics.
Do you have no idea what you're doing and have a question? Google it first. Then google it again. Then Bing it, for good measure. Might as well check PornHub too, you never know. THEN, if you still didn't find the answer, you ask.
This sub gives me Tourette's. If you got a problem with that, well fuck you.
This shit is targeted at the mouthbreathers, but maybe more knowledgeable folk’ll find some useful info, idk. How do you know if you’re in the mouthbreather category? If your answer to any of the following questions is yes, then you are:
Are you new to trading?
Are you unable to manage your own positions?
Did you score into the negatives on the SAT Critical Reading section?
Do you think Delta is just an airline?
Do you buy high & sell low?
Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap?
Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2?
Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr?
Do you think I'm trying to sell you puts?
If you take a trade you see posted on this sub and are down, do you PM the guy posting it?
Do you generally PM people on this sub to ask them basic questions?
Is your mouth your primary breathing apparatus?
Well I have just the thing for you! Table of Contents: I. Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS IV. Busting your retarded myths V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND VI. The mouthbreather-proof trade - The Akimbo VII. Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers Chapter I - Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about I'm not here to rip you off. Every fucking time I post something, a bunch of dumbasses show up saying I'm selling you puts or whatever the fuck retarded thoughts come through their caveman brains.
Sit down, Barney, I'm not here to scam you for your 3 cents on OTM puts. Do I always get it right? Of course not, dumbasses. Eurodollar play didn't work out (yet). Last TQQQ didn't work out (yet). That’s just how it goes. Papa Buffet got fucked on airlines. Plain retard Burry bought GME. What do you fucking expect? Meanwhile, I keep giving y'all good motherfucking plays:
28/10/2019: "I'ma say this again, in case you haven't heard me the first time. BUY $JNK PUTS NOW!". Strike: "11/15, 1/17 and 6/19". "This thing can easily go below 50, so whatever floats your boat. Around $100 strike is a good entry point."
3/9/2020: "I mean it's a pretty obvious move, but $JNK puts."
3/19/2020, 12pm: "UVXY put FDs are free money." & “Buy $UVXY puts expiring tomorrow if we're still green at 3pm. Trust me.”
3/24/2020: “$UUP 3/27 puts at $27.5 or $27 should be 10-baggers once the bill passes. I'd expect it to go to around $26.”
And of course, the masterpiece that was the TQQQ put play. Chapter II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression Do you really understand what happened? Let's go through it. I got in puts on 2/19, right at the motherfucking top, TQQQ at $118. I told you on 2/24 TQQQ ($108) was going to shit, and to buy fucking puts, $90ps, $70ps, $50ps, all the way to 3/20 $30ps. You think I just pulled that out of my ass? You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is? Well, let's take a look at what the fuckstick Kevin Cook from Zacks wrote on 3/5: How Many Sigmas Was the Flash Correction Plunge?
"Did you know that last week's 14% plunge in the S&P 500 SPY was so rare, by statistical measures, that it shouldn't happen once but every 14,000 years?" "By several measures, it was about a 5-sigma move, something that's not "supposed to" happen more than once in your lifetime -- or your prehistoric ancestors' lifetimes! "According to general statistical principles, a 4-sigma event is to be expected about every 31,560 days, or about 1 trading day in 126 years. And a 5-sigma event is to be expected every 3,483,046 days, or about 1 day every 13,932 years."
On 3/5, TQQQ closed at $81. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right? That's what fuckstick says:
"Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences. This was the primary lesson of Nassim Taleb's 2007 book The Black Swan, written before the financial crisis that found Wall Street bankers completely ignorant of randomness and the risks of ruin." I also took advantage of the extreme 5-sigma sell-off by grabbing a leveraged ETF on the Nasdaq 100, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ. In my plan, while I might debate the merits of buying AAPL or MSFT for hours, I knew I could immediately buy them both with TQQQ and be rewarded very quickly after the 14% plunge."
"The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).
Let's see what Stephen Mathai-Davis, CFA, CQF, WTF, BBQ, Founder and CEO of Q.ai - Investing Reimagined, a Forbes Company, and a major fucktard has to say at this point:
"Our AI models are telling us to buy SPY (the SPDR S&P500 ETF and a great proxy for US large-cap stocks) but since all models are based on past data, does it really make sense? " "While it may or may not make sense to buy stocks, it definitely is a good time to sell “volatility.” And yes, you can do it in your brokerage account! Or, you can ask your personal finance advisor about it." "So what is the takeaway? I don’t know if now is the right time to start buying stocks again but it sure looks like the probabilities are in your favor to say that we are not going to experience another 7 standard deviation move in U.S. Stocks. OTM (out-of-the-money) Put Spreads are a great way to get some bullish exposure to a rally in the SPY while also shorting such rich volatility levels."
"tinygiraffe21 1 point 2 months ago Haha when? I’m loading up in 4/17 25 puts" "dlkdev Scratch that, helicopter money is here." "AfgCric 1 point 2 months ago What does that mean?" "It means the Fed & Trump are printing trillions with no end in sight. If they go through with this, this was probably the bottom."
Idiot, I have no way of knowing that Billy boy Ackman was going to go on CNBC and cry like a little bitch to make everyone dump, so he can get out of his shorts. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it. Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything? No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags. Video of Billy & the Fed train Here's what Billy boy says:
“But if they don’t, and the government takes the right steps, this hedge could be worth zero, and the stock market could go right back up to where it was. So we made the decision to exit.”
https://www.businessinsider.sg/bill-ackman-explains-coronavirus-trade-single-best-all-time-podcast-2020-5 Also, “the single best trade of all time.” my ass, it was only a 100-bagger. I gave y’all a 150-bagger. So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp. Chapter III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS RULE 1. YOU NEVER BUY OPTIONS AT OPEN. You NEVER OVERPAY for an option. You never FOMO into buying too fast. You NEVER EVER NEVER pump the premium on a play. I saw you fuckers buying over 4k TQQQ 5/22 $45 puts in the first minutes of trading. You pumped the premium to over $0.50 dudes. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. Let me explain simply: Let's say a put on ticker $X at strike $50 is worth $1, and a put at strike $51 is worth $2. If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher. If you overpay at $2 for the $50p, the market maker will just buy $51ps for $2 and sell you $50ps for 2$. Or he'll buy longer-dated $50ps and sell you shorter-dated $50ps. Max risk for him is now 0, max gain is $1. You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats. You need to get in with patience, especially if you see other autists here wanting to go in at the same time. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. If it doesn't fill, AND the price of the option hasn't moved much recently, you can bump the bid $0.01. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all? You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later. RULE 2. WATCH THE TIME. Algos are especially active at x:00, x:02, x:08, x:12, x:30 and x:58. Try not to buy at those times. RULE 3. YOU USE MULTIPLE BROKERS. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. If you don't have another one, open up a tasty, IB, TD, Schwab, whatever. But for cheap faggy puts (or calls), Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money!", Robinhood is the best. Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays. RULE 4. YOU DON'T START A TRADE WITH BIG POSITIONS. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you. You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to RULE 5. MANAGING YOUR WINNERS: Your position going for you? Good job! Now POUND THAT SHIT! And again. Move your strikes to cheaper puts/calls, and pound again. And again. Snowball those gains. RULE 6A. POUND THOSE $0.01 PUTS: So you bought some puts and they’re going down? Well, the moment they reach $0.01, YOU POUND THOSE PUTS (assuming there’s enough time left on them, not shit expiring in 2h). $0.01 puts have amazing risk/return around the time they reach $0.01. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? Well it’s the reverse of that. RULE 6B. MANAGING YOUR LOSERS: Your position going against you? Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? WRONG DUMBASS. You manage that by POUNDING THAT SHIT. Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around. You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage. The market can only react. That's your edge, so USE IT! Like this: Example 1: Initial TQQQ 5/22 position = $5,000. Starts losing? You pound it. https://preview.redd.it/gq938ty8e5151.png?width=944&format=png&auto=webp&s=734ab7ed517f0e6822bfaaed5765d1272de398d1 Total pounded in 5/22 TQQQ puts = $10,824. Unfortunately expired worthless (but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads) Then the autists show up:
"Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?" - cscqb4
You have a downside position, but market going up or nowhere? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit. Example 2: 5/22, long weekend coming right? So you use your brain & try to predict what could happen over the 3-day weekend. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play. I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play. Sold some ES_F spreads (for those unaware, ES is a 50x multiplier, so 1 SPX = 2 ES = 10 SPY, approximately). -47x 2955/2960 bear call spreads for $2.5. Max gain is $2.5, max loss is 2960-2955 = $5. A double-or-nothing basically. That's $5,875 in premium, max loss = 2x premium = $11,750. Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3,014 now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. How? I have: 47x 2960 calls -47x 2955 calls Pajama traders getting all up in my grill? Well then I buy back 1 of the 2955 calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over 2980, around 2982-ish. Paid $34.75, initially shorted at $16.95, so booked a -$892 loss, for now. But now what do I have? 46x 2955/2960 bear calls 1x 2960 long call So the fuckers can pump it. In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make. Each $2.5 move up in the futures covers the max loss for 1 spread. With SPX now at ~3015, that call is $55 ITM. Covers 24/46 contracts rn. If they wanna run it up, at 3070 it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over 3050 if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? well under 2960 it's profit time again. They wanna do a shitty pin at 3000 today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there. Later edit: that was written yesterday. Got out with a loss of only $1.5k out of the max $5,875. Not bad. And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position. RULE 7 (ESPECIALLY FOR BEARS). YOU DON'T KEEP EXTRA CASH IN YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker. But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Why? Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans. Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. Your individual cash probably doesn't make a dent, but a million autists with an extra $1200 trumpbucks means $1.2b. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Even if it's FDIC or SIPC insured, it's gonna take time until you see that money again. Chapter IV. BUSTING YOUR RETARDED MYTHS MYTH 1 - STONKS ONLY GO UP Do you think the market can go up forever? Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr? Do you think SPX will be at 5000 by the end of the month? Do you think $1.5 trillion is a good entry point for stonks like AAPL or MSFT? Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap? Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2? Well, this section is for you! Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs. What's your target for the SPX top? Think 3500 by the end of the year? 3500 by September? 4000? 4500? 5000? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables. Let's say SPX only goes up, a moderate 0.5% each period as a compounded avg. (i.e. up a bit down a bit whatever, doesn't matter as long as at the end of your period, if you look back and do the math, you'll get that number). Let's call this variable BRRR = 0.005. Can you do the basic math to calculate the value at the end of x periods? Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you. Let's say our period is one week. That is, SPX goes up on average 0.5% each week on Fed BRRR: 2950 * (1.005^x), where x is the number of periods (weeks in this case) So, after 1 month, you have: 2950 * (1.005^4) = 3009 After 2 months: 2950 * (1.005^8) = 3070 End of the year? 2950 * (1.005^28) = 3392 Now clearly, we're already at 3015 on the futures, so we're moving way faster than that. More like at a speed of BRRR = 1%/wk 2950 * (1.01^4) = 3069 2950 * (1.01^8) = 3194 2950 * (1.01^28) = 3897 Better, but still slower than a lot of permabulls would expect. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX 4000-4500 by September. Like this dude, David Hunter, "Contrarian Macro Strategist w/40+ years on Wall Street". IDIOTIC. https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/status/1263066368414568448 That'd be 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4000 => BRRR = 1.0257 and 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4500 => BRRR = 1.0358, respectively. Here's why that can't happen, no matter the amount of FED BRRR: Leverage. Compounded Leverage. There's currently over $100b in leveraged etfs with a 2.5x avg. leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. TQQQ alone is now at almost $6b in AUM (topped in Fed at a little over $7b). Now, let's try to estimate what happens to TQQQ's AUM when BRRR = 1.0257. 3XBRRR = 1.0771. Take it at 3XBRRR = 1.07 to account for slippage in a medium-volatility environment and ignore the fact that the Nasdaq-100 would go up more than SPX anyway. $6,000,000,000 * (1.07^4) = $7,864,776,060 $6,000,000,000 * (1.07^8) = $10,309,100,000 $6,000,000,000 * (1.07^12) = $13,513,100,000 $6,000,000,000 * (1.07^28) = $39,893,000,000. What if BRRR = 1.0358? => 3XBRR = 1.1074. Take 3XBRRR = 1.10. $6,000,000,000 * (1.1^4) = $8,784,600,000 $6,000,000,000 * (1.1^8) = $12,861,500,000 $6,000,000,000 * (1.1^12) = $18,830,600,000 $6,000,000,000 * (1.1^28) = $86,526,000,000 And this would have to get 3x leveraged every day. And this is just for TQQQ. Let's do an estimation for all leveraged funds. $100b AUM, 2.5 avg. leverage factor, BRRR = 1.0257 => 2.5BRRR = 1.06425 $100b * (1.06^4) = $128.285b $100b * (1.06^8) = $159.385b $100b * (1.06^12) = $201.22b $100b * (1.06^28) = $511.169b That'd be $1.25 trillion sloshing around each day. And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable. In the long run, it doesn't matter if the Fed goes BRRR, if TQQQ takes in it's share of 3XBRRR. And the Fed can't go 3XBRRR, because then TQQQ would take in 9XBRRR. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things. Watch (or rewatch) this: Selena Gomez & Richard H. Thaler Explaining Synthetic CDO through BLACKJACK My general point, at the mouth-breather level, is that Fed BRRR cannot be infinite, because leverage. And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. TQQQ and SQQQ started out at $8m each. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. When TQQQ made a million, SQQQ lost a million (minus a small spread, which was the bank's profit). Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened. Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular. And so, TQQQ ended up being $6-7b, while SQQQ was at $1b. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. Long leveraged ETF AUM became disproportionate to short AUM. And it matters a whole fucking lot. Because if you think of the casino, TQQQ walks up every day and says "I'd like to put $18b on red", while SQQQ walks up and says "I'd only like to put $3b on black". And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge. Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself. If you were a time traveller, how much money do you think you could make by trading derivatives? Do you think you could make $20 trillion? You know the future prices after all... But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Call it the Time-travelling WSB Autist Paradox. If you had a bucket with a hole in the bottom, even if you poured an infinite amount of water into it, it would never be full. Because there's a LIQUIDITY SINK, just like there is one in the markets. And that, my mouth-breathing friends, is the reason why FED BRRR cannot be infinite. Or alternatively, "STONKS MUST GO BOTH UP AND DOWN". MYTH 2 - YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET On Jan 14, 2020, I predicted this: Assuming that corona doesn't become a problem, "AAPL: Jan 28 $328.3, Jan 31 $316.5, April 1 $365.7, May 1 $386, July 1 $429 December 31 $200." Now take a look at the AAPL chart in January. After earnings AAPL peaked at $327.85. On 1/31, after the 1st hour of trading, when the big boys make moves, it was at $315.63. Closed 1/31 at $309.51. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too? Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. And these days, we have a whole lot of RETARDED FLOW. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Stuff like:
ETF flows. If MSFT goes up and AAPL goes down, part of that flow is going to move from AAPL to MSFT. Even if MSFT flash-crashes up to $1000, the ETF will still "buy". Because it's passive.
Option settlement flows. Once options expire, money is going to flow from one side to another, and that my friends is accurately predictable from the data.
Index rebalancing flows
401k passive flows
Carry trade flows
Tax day flows
Flows of people front-running the flows
And many many others. Spot the flow, and you get an edge. How could I predict where AAPL would be after earnings within 50 cents and then reverse down to $316 2 days later? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? Well, AAPL earnings (The 8-K) come out on a Wednesday. The next morning, after market opens the 10-Q comes out. And that 10-Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares. But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the 10-Q. And that gives you EDGE. Which leads to MYTH 3 - BUYBACKS DON'T MATTER Are you one of those mouthbreathers that parrots the phrase "buybacks are just a tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders"? Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. Second bit: On 1/28, AAPL's market cap is closing_price x free_float_outstanding_shares. But that's not the REAL MARKET CAP. Because the number of outstanding shares is OLD AS FUCK. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on.
"But ETFs won't change the number of shares they hold, they will still hold the same % of AAPL in the index" - random_wsb_autist
Oh my fucking god you're dumb as fuck. FLOWS change. And the next day, when TQQQ comes by and puts its massive $18b dong on the table, the market will hedge that differently. And THAT CAN BE PREDICTED. That's why AAPL was exactly at $316 1 hour after the market opened on 1/31. So, what can you use to spot moves? Let me show you: Market topped on 2/19. Here’s SPY. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines. https://preview.redd.it/7agm171eh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=d94b90dcd634c8dc688925585bf0a02c3299f71b Nobody could have seen it coming, right? WRONG AGAIN. Here: https://preview.redd.it/i1kdp3cgh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a1e086e9217846547efd3b6c5249f4a7ebe6d9e In fact, JPYUSD gave you two whole days to see it. Those are NOT normal JPYUSD moves. But hey maybe it’s just a fluke? Wrong again. https://preview.redd.it/fsyhenckh5151.png?width=3693&format=png&auto=webp&s=03200e10b008257ae15d40b474c4cf4d8c23670f Forex showed you that all over the place. Why? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH. It doesn’t matter why, but remember people pulling cash out of ATMs all over the world? Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means. The reversal: https://preview.redd.it/4xe97l0oh5151.png?width=1336&format=png&auto=webp&s=07aaa93f6b1d8f542101e40e431edccbc109918f https://preview.redd.it/v6i0pdmoh5151.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=74d5589961db2f978d4d582e6d7c58a85f6305f9 But it wasn’t just forex. Gold showed it to you as well. Bonds showed it to you as well. https://preview.redd.it/40j53u8th5151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe39ab51321d0f98149d33e33253e69f96c48e23 Even god damn buttcoin showed it to you. https://preview.redd.it/43lvafhvh5151.png?width=3705&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef53283cbc0fb97f71c1ba935c0bd747809636e And they all did it for 2 days before the move hit equities. Chapter V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND You see all these bankruptcies that happened so far, and all the ones that are going to follow? Do you think that’s just dogshit companies and it won’t have major effects on anything outside them? WRONG. Because there’s a lot of leveraged instruments on top of those equities. When the stock goes to 0, all those outstanding puts across all expirations get instantly paid. Understand that Feb-March was a liquidity MOAB. But this will end with a liquidity nuke. Here’s just HTZ for example: $239,763,550 in outstanding puts. Just on a single dogshit small-cap company (this thing was like $400m mkt. cap last week). And that’s just the options on the equity. There’s also instruments on etfs that hold HTZ, on the bonds, on the ETFs that hold their bonds, swaps, warrants, whatever. It’s a massive pile of leverage. Then there’s also the ripple effects. Were you holding a lot of HTZ in your brokerage margin account? Well guess what big boi, when that gaps to 0 you get a margin call, and then you become a liquidity drain. Holding long calls? 0. Bonds 0. DOG SHIT! And the market instantly goes from holding $x in assets (HTZ equity / bonds / calls) to holding many multiples of x in LIABILITIES (puts gone wrong, margin loans, derivatives books, revolvers, all that crap). And it doesn’t matter if the Fed buys crap like HTZ bonds. You short them some. Because when it hits 0, it’s no longer about supply and demand. You get paid full price, straight from Jerome’s printer. Is the Fed going to buy every blown up derivative too? Because that's what they'd have to do. Think of liquidity as a car. The faster it goes, the harder it becomes to go even faster. At some point, you can only go faster by driving off a cliff. THE SQUEEZE. But you stop instantly when you hit the ground eventually. And that’s what shit’s doing all over the place right now. Rewatch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hG4X5iTK8M And just like that fucker, “I’m standing in front of a burning house, and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.” Don’t baghold! Now is not the time to baghold junk. Take your cash. Not the time to buy cheap crap. You don’t buy Hertz. You don’t buy USO. You don’t buy airlines, or cruises, or GE, or motherfucking Disney. And if you have it, dump that shit. And the other dogshit that’s at ATH, congrats you’re in the green. Now you take your profits and fucking dump that shit. I’m talking shit like garbage SaaS, app shit, AI shit, etc. Garbage like MDB, OKTA, SNAP, TWLO, ZM, CHGG etc. And you dump those garbage ass leveraged ETFs. SQQQ, TQQQ, whatever, they’re all dogshit now. The leverage MUST unwind. And once that’s done, some of you will no longer be among us if you don’t listen. A lot of leveraged ETFs will be gone. Even some non-leveraged ETFs will be gone. Some brokers will be gone, some market makers will be gone, hell maybe even some big bank has to go under. I can’t know which ones will go poof, but I can guarantee you that some will. Another reason to diversify your shit. There’s a reason papa Warrant Buffet dumped his bags, don’t think you’re smarter than him. He may be senile, but he’s still a snake. And once the unwind is done, THEN you buy whatever cheap dogshit’s still standing. Got it? Good. You feel ready to play yet? Alright, so you catch a move. Or I post a move and you wanna play it. You put on a small position. When it’s going your way, YOU POUND DAT SHIT. Still going? Well RUSH B CYKA BLYAT AND PLANT THE GOD DAMN 3/20 $30p BOMB. Chapter VI - The mouthbreather-proof play - THE AKIMBO Still a dumbass that can’t make a play? Still want to go long? Well then, I got a dumbass-proof trade for you. I present to you THE AKIMBO: STEP 1. You play this full blast. You need some real Russian hardbass to get you in the right mood for trading, cyka. STEP 2. Split your play money in 3. Remember to keep extra bankroll for POUNDING THAT SHIT. STEP 3. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy SQQQ 9/18 $5p, pay $0.05. Not more than $0.10. STEP 4. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy TQQQ 9/18 $20p, pay around $0.45. Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous, 7/17 $35p’s for around $0.5. STEP 5. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy VIX PUT SPREADS 9/15 $21/$20 spread for around $0.15, no more than $0.25. That is, you BUY the 21p and SELL the 20p. Only using Robinhood and don’t have the VIX? What did I just tell you? Well fine, use UVXY then. Just make sure you don’t overpay. Chapter VII - Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers Quick tips, cuz apparently I'm out of space, there's a 40k character limit on reddit posts. Who knew?
Analysing the past and theories for the future of Modern Day (May contain spoilers)
Edit: For clarification, I’ve avoided topics or plots I know to have been resolved in the games or elsewhere, Here I am attempting to string together unanswered questions from the lore in a meaningful way. Okay so this is a pretty long theory and requires revisiting some themes from the narrative that haven’t entirely been explored, explained or completed as of writing. We’ll also need to establish a few things to flesh out where I think the Modern Day narrative is going. Some of these are vague references so bear with me. The fate of Desmond: There is foreshadowing as early as AC3 as to what is now occurring in the present. One piece of dialog worth noting is this very odd interaction between Desmond and William that will become more interesting later on. Desmond: ‘It just keeps happening over and over again’ William: ‘what does?’ Desmond: ‘Everything’ Minerva also explains this to us clearly at the end of the game. Including that Juno had twisted the eye towards another purpose. Ie: her own purposes, planning the domination of ‘her’ world. Minerva: ‘Divination through numbers, there is a pattern to existence, to comprehend the calculations is to tame time. This was my focus. And so I built the eye to aid us . But she (Juno) turned it towards her own ends.’ Further, we have established what the grand temple is, and what it does. It is a vessel for transference of the mind. Essentially a huge computer system to store an Isu (or other) consciousness. But for that consciousness to leave requires a price to be paid. ‘we forged a new vessel, one that might endure. It proved easy enough to enter.But to leave. To leave required something more… something wrong*. And so this too they abandoned.* I wondered, though.. were they right to turn away?’ – Juno describing the capability of the grand temple. Juno is describing the grand temple in this scene, a vessel that might endure to store consciousness. And the price that must be paid to leave is a life, which Desmond paid when he touched the orb and released Juno into the world. Here’s where the theory starts. Desmond didn’t ‘die’ when he touched the orb. His body did, yes. But his mind transferred into ‘The Grey’ How do we know this? Lets run through it. Into The Grey: “...Into the Grey - the digital frontier, the singularity - the space in which she dwells being both made of light and the embodiment of darkness.” Part of the credo of the instruments of the first will (AC Black Flag) These themes are touched on starting with Black Flag and well into Unity, and I believe they paint a very clear picture that not only Desmond, but Clay are alive within the worlds data networks. Let’s first return to that security breach memo but focus on a different part of the text. From Database: 14. Security Breach Memo \122\145\147\151\156\141\112\165\156\157: TheWorldIsTendingThis.BePatient.InDueTimeAllWillPlugin.NoneWillLeave.NotOne.NotClayNotDesmondNot.AllAreHereWithMe.AllLiveInBliss.SoMustYouDoAsWell.SoMustYouAll.SamplesCollect.DataProvide.ToReviveMyRace.TheHiddenTwelve.ToRemakeMyWorld. So we have this very interesting memo, which is clearly Juno communicating and specifically mentions that Clay and Desmond are alive. If that’s not enough we have the following. This next entry I think is the most interesting, I believe it directly hints at not only Desmonds existence, but that he’s actively working towards something from within ‘The Grey’ Database: 16. Chat Log Chat Log: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]); [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) -Message sent at 3:27pm- V.DACOSTA: Mel. Got a minute? M.LEMAY: Sure. V.DACOSTA: You've been briefed on the security breaches? M.LEMAY: Broad strokes. I have a meeting @ 17:00 to learn more. V.DACOSTA: I'll be there. Just a heads up though - expect some panic. M.LEMAT: ??? What's going on? V.DACOSTA: A new breach this morning. Something we've never experienced before. M.LEMAY: Is it bad? V.DACOSTA: Probably. Not sure yet. Someone slipped right through our firewalls with one of the most well coordinated attack we've ever seen. Seventeen seperate servers compromised simultaneously in perfect unison, each via completely separate backdoor programs. M.LEMAY: Meaning? V.DACOSTA: Meaningsomehow a single entity was capable of launching 17 completely independent attacks rather than one attack on 17 targets - the equivalent of someone playing and winning 17 separate chess games in the span of a few seconds. M.LEMAY: Assassins? V.DACOSTA: I can't imagine how. They have good tech, but they're never so blatant and they never split their priorities. This was a massive data sniff perpetrated by a single person or small group. M.LEMAY: What did they take? V.DACOSTA: They didn't TAKE anything, but they scanned almost everything. Genetic memory archives, precurses analyses, raw DDS data. Lots of things people on the outside shouldn't even know about. They were looking for something, but I can't be sure if they found it. M.LEMAY: Could it have come from the inside? V.DACOSTA: That's what we assumed. What makes the whole thing strange, though, is that the data seems to have been moved around Abstergo's servers multiple times over the course of the attack. Shuffled, reorganized, and most likely altered. M.LEMAY: Meaning what? V.DACOSTA***: It's hard to explain. It's almost as if two parts of a single program - one on the inside and one on the outside - just... sort of "joined up" and came to life, so to speak.*** M.LEMAY: Talk to me like I'm 5. What does that mean? V.DACOSTA: It's going to sound nuts... M.LEMAY: Try me. I'm getting used to it. V.DACOSTA***: It's almost as if some sort of rogue bot or AI program is actually "living" in the network, so to speak. Moving freely around our servers. And somehow it has found a way to slip in and out of our network without tripping our alarms.*** We only managed to notice this time because we were going over the packet logs one by one today. -Last messge sent at 3:34pm- V.DACOSTA: You there? -Last message sent at 3:54pm- M.LEMAY: Sorry, I had to make a phone call. Your last message sent me spinning. V.DACOSTA: Thought it might. Any ideas? M.LEMAY: One. I hope I'm wrong. V.DACOSTA: OK. M.LEMAY: Have you done any research into Digital Cognizance Imprints? V.DACOSTA:I studied the Kaczmarek case about a year ago.Is that what you mean? M.LEMAY: That, but possible on a far greater scale. Are you coming to the meeting tonight? V.DACOSTA: Sounds like I should. M.LEMAY: You'd better. V.DACOSTA: K. See you there. Okay so let’s unpack that. We have 17 simultaneous attacks from 17 different sources on 17 targets AT THE SAME TIME. As if some sort of program joined up and came to life. A rogue AI living in the network. While it’s possible that these attacks are Juno, I just don’t believe it is.The symbolism involved with the repetition of the number 17 is just too glaringly obvious to ignore. Juno even mentions at the end of Black Flag that ‘Signal is still too weak, and I am spread thin. Unfocused. Like static’ This wasn’t Juno, It was Desmond. And let’s not forget, Desmond learned from the best. Desmond discusses this with his father in voice messages left on his phone, Clay passed on all his knowledge directly to Desmond before disappearing: ‘he PASSED THEM to me.. just before he died, or got deleted, or whatever. Everything he’d learned, everything he’d seen’ ‘right before he vanished, clay passed on his memories. To me… he showed me everything HE had seen, and lived through’ TL;DR – Desmond Miles is alive. The Hidden Twelve: In Unity one of the security breach memos reads thusly. \122\145\147\151\156\141\112\165\156\157:TheWorldIsTendingThis.BePatient.InDueTimeAllWillPl ugin.NoneWillLeave.NotOne.NotClayNotDesmondNot.All AreHereWithMe.AllLiveInBliss.SoMustYouDoAsWell.SoMustYouAll.SamplesCollect.Dat aProvide.ToReviveMyRace.TheHiddenTwelve.ToRemakeMyWorld. Now it’s pretty hard to be sure what Juno was referencing here but I believe it refers to the twelve apples of eden that the Isu sent skyward, as mentioned in AC3. The apples weren’t just used to control humans but they (Isu) discovered that if enough people willed a thing to occur at the same time then the apple made it so.To protect against the coronial mass ejection, the Isu sent one skyward. ‘We resolved to send one into the sky where it might illuminate us all. Once placed, a sentence would be uttered: Make us safe’ ‘But it never came to be. We sent a dozen of them skyward – but there was no way to maintain control. To direct the beam. To enthrall the world. To speak the words’ Why would these need to be sought out? Well Juno says it herself ‘when enough sat in thrall and were told to believe their thoughts took on form’ – (edit) Juno discussing how the apples of eden were used to control humans, but another use was discovered in that they could manifest thoughts if enough people willed it at the same time. Further However, in Origins we look to the sky, at a number of stone circles. 12 stone circles to be exact, and what is revealed once all are discovered? Segment 6 of the Empirical Truth You can read it all here: https://assassinscreed.fandom.com/wiki/The_Empirical_Truth#Eesfet%20Oon-m'Aa%20Poo Why is this important? Because it literally spells out how to change reality, to alter time. “It couldescape the code*. It could do that leap, and make possible a decision that defies the order of things that are.”* The Empirical Truth The current modern day has been foreshadowed for a long time. Put simply, the Isu have been playing with time and twisting the fate of the world. Why is this important? Because in doing so they broke something. They used their machines to find Desmond, in a desperate bid to stop the coronial mass ejection and to save the world. But it was never meant to be. ‘he saw Minerva and Juno, and Tinia trying to work out their… calculations’. ‘They had these tools.. these powerful machines… that could predict POSSIBLE FUTURES… not what was GOING to happen, but what uh… what COULD happen… probabilities. And … well they spent a lot of energy trying to figure out what was the most likely scenario for the future. Their’s and ours. And in the end I guess they figured I was their most likely candidate… some guy named Desmond, living at the beginning of the twenty-first century of the Common Era… but which Desmond was the right one? Because, you see, probability is a weird thing… it can branch out in so many ways… which version of me did they need? Was it the Desmond who got married early and had a son… the one who stayed single in New York .. oor was it the Desmond who moved to San Francisco to be a waiter or maybe it was the me who never ran away from his parents in the first place. The First Civ had countless variations to chose from but… in the end.. the lucky one was me. I’m the Desmond their best calculations spit out… I’m the Desmond they left their messages for… and I guess I have to live with that honor.’ - Desmond Miles discussing Clays memories in voice recordings So what is the Empirical Truth? Well it broadly refers to the idea that everything is a simulation, nothing is real. Edit: To clarify here, To say nothing is real I believe this refers to the flow of time. “Time is a system that defines what comes to be. That is how we understand it. The Code is Time, and Time is Code. As you scratch the surface and uncover the truth, ask yourself if there is something more? Something else.” That suggests that time is flexible, the flow of time and physics to the Isu are fluid, laws can be bent and broken. It also speaks to the idea that the Isu predictions that led to Desmond activating the orb and preventing the coronial mass ejection were flawed. They thought that outcome would save the world, but: “Then, on the morning of December 22nd 2012, humankind was graced with yet another morning. They never knew that on the previous day, the world almost ended. We thought that would have been enough. And it was until it wasn't. Time is unyielding. It always corrects itself*.”* We’re also introduced to the idea of time as nodes, and that there are fixed points in time that cannot be altered: “Nodes are static, changeless. And the wave function collapses the paths into nodes which branch out. Again, and again, and again. And so I wonder.Can you feel the wave collapsing, trying to course correct Desmond's act of defiance? The incoming node needs the world to end.” “The node is near. Perhaps you knew. Perhaps you felt it too. That the world is closing in on you.“ It’s clear that Desmond, under Isu instruction was attempting to stop what cannot be stopped. That the incoming node NEEDS the world to end because that is as it should be, however there’s an out. Layla is given the direction to: “(Break the code. Break the Node.)” Additionally it is made clear that the Isu removed from humans the ability to truly understand time, the 6th sense. “We removed our ability to read those stories from your original template.” “We have six senses, you have five. Can you guess the one missing? [...] (Overload your mind's capacity)“ “The real cage is not around you. It is in you. Your mind will not allow you to wander in uncharted territories. A Faraday cage, for the mind. A concealed strait jacket.” And something I consider extremely important going into Valhalla: “The Animus was humankind’s first unconscious attempt to explain what it could not see. Understanding genetic memories, an eye into history. But the Animus bears a fatal flaw. It follows the rules from those who embrace Order just as we did. It allows you to witness – but not alter. Your Animus is different. As is the mind that imagined it. It could escape the code. It could do that leap, and make possible a decision that defies the order of things that are. Wake up. Be the chaos that comes to be. Gods are just like you and me. Remember. Nothing is real. Everything is permitted.” And then we’re introduced to Alethia, an Isu who believes that they have meddled long enough, and humans deserve to know the truth. And thus we’re put through a series of simulations showing the difference between order, chaos, and the flaws of the Isu. And Layla has recovered the staff of Hermes, a piece of eden that managed to preserve Kassandras life until she passed it to Layla and can (possibly?) alter time. The (Possible) Future The way I see the Modern Day moving forward in Valhalla is something of a hard reset on the ‘end of the world’ narrative. Or as Darby has suggested, to set us up for the next game. Layla will close the loop on the incoming node and prevent another world ending catastrophe, probably in the context of ‘Ragnarok’ and probably in a DLC. Will this mean a new MD protagonist in the future? Yes I think so. Layla has (or will) have served her role by the end of Valhalla. Who will it be? I think it’s likely to be Elijah. Desmonds Son. I also think its probably that before the end of Valhalla we see Desmond or interact with him in some form, how that plays out for him I don’t know. Personally I’d like to see Layla go back in time and actually interact with him in 2012. It’s possible that somehow with a combination of the Koh I Noor, Ankh and Shroud of eden Desmond could be made corporeal at some point in the future but I think the only person with a vested interest in that would be either William Miles or Elijah. It’s also possible that narratively, whatever does Layla in-Animus could physically alter time and work as an in-universe ret-con to prevent desmond from ever touching the orb in the first place in parallel with some other preventative measure to stop the world from ending. Although I reckon that would be pretty weak to completely ret-con everything since the end of AC3. Basically with the story in the current state it’s in, I think all bets are off and pretty much all the cards are on the table in terms of what can be done, and what is likely to be done. I’m excited to see what happens and where we go from here! Thanks for reading 😊 Edit: fixed a few typos Edit 2: Updated a few things for clarification. (still vague as mud I know) Edit 3: updated a few more little bits for clarification after discussion
"There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare." -Sun Tzu, The Art of War DISCLAIMER The following events were done by deranged individuals with complete disregard for their own physical and mental well-being. Please do not attempt this at home. My name is Technoblade and I'm the fastest skyblock player alive. To the outside world I'm an ordinary Minecraft youtuber, but secretly I've spent the last year fighting to maintain my spot as the number 1 potato farmer in Skyblock. Opposing me is Squid Kid, the former rank number 1. A man whose obsession with potatoes is rivalled only by my own. In my last video I talked about how the newly added rabbit pet could at its highest level could increase the amount of potatoes my minions made by 30% but I knew Squid would watch my video to find out my tactics so I left out a few of the finer details. See the boost from rabbit pets isn't the same as flycatchers or catalysts, you have to be there.. on the island for the boost to take effect. Once you log off or go to somewhere else on skyblock that boost is gone until you come back. But while I was experimenting with the rabbit pet I uncovered a few interesting facts about how the boost works for instance: Rabbit pets can boost other people's minions if you're visiting their island as a guest, but minions can only get boosted by one rabbit at a time so you cant just get 20 accounts with rabbit pets for infinite potatoes. The third thing I found was the most interesting and this is what Squid Kid didn't know. If there's multiple rabbit pets on the same island which one boosts the minions? You'd think it'd be the strongest one but it's not! If there's multiple rabbits the minions will be boosted by the one belonging to whoever's been on the island the longest. So hypothetically speaking if someone went to their island with their level 100 rabbit when someone was already there with the level 1 one, they wouldn't get their rabbit's 30% boost, they'd get the level 1's 0.3% boost. Unrelated fun fact, did you know that squid kid's island is still open to visitors? Yeah that's right we're doing this again... So I bought a new Minecraft account, slapped a level 1 legendary rabbit pet onto it and shipped it off to Squid Kid's AFK pool! I knew I had to maintain absolute secrecy- I didn't even tell my goons about this because I knew once Squid got wind of this it would be trivially easy for him to prevent it. I waited until the day I released the second Potato War video to start, after that video tourists flocked to Squid Kid's island to see it for themselves, my alt blended right in. Everday my alt would sit there in Squid Kid's afk pool to maintain rabbit priority in fact it usually had the rabbit pet deactivated during the day since you don't need to have the pet out to keep priority and since the rabbit was deactivated if squid checked his minions during the day he'd find nothing wrong with them. But every night around 2am Squid would leave his account AFK and go to bed and that's when I'd strike overriding his rabbit pet boost for the rest of the night and yes I memorized Squid's sleeping schedule, I mean at this point how is that even a question of course I did but unfortunately complications soon arose. Squid and I had both been rushing to get our rabbit pets to level 100 and I had a pretty heavy lead and I figured it'd take Squid several more weeks to get his there, but unfortunately and unknwon third party got there first and sold his level 100 legendary rabbit directly to Squid. Of course he didn't forget to brag about this victory on stream. Squid: "Oh my oh my, you know who doesn't have a level 100 pet, yikes he has a level 99 rabbit pet, he's poor, it's only level 99 I'm screaming ahhhhhhhhh." Little did he know that while he was flexing on stream, my alt was right there on his island overriding his level 100 bonus. But my problems didn't stop there you see, Squid got an alt account to AFK with his rabbit pet on his island while he was doing other things and since the alt account had no reason to ever leave his island it became much harder to keep control of pet priority and sometimes when I had priority he'd end up kicking everyone from his island because it was too full for his alt account meaning I had lost priority for the rest of the day. I was going to counter this by spending $30 to buy his alt MVP++ since that rank can bypass guesting limits #ad but unfortunately on March 20th my alt was kicked and Squid's island was closed forever. The jig was up but by that point I'd already achieved my objective. The two weeks it took to realize what was going on cost him about 2 million potatoes. Bit of a tangent but I'm pretty sure I lost a few fans over the rabbit pet because everyone would just be hanging out, they'd just be chilling on my island with their level 30 rabbits activated and I'd come see that and I don't care if it's intentional or not but they're sabotaging my potatoes! So I'd kick them out of my island to get priority back and they they'd come back 10 seconds later like: "Why did you kick me Technoblade? I just wanted to meet my favourite youtuber :(" And I'd be like woah woah relax dude relax it's not a big deal, I have a really good reason I just can't tell you because it is a secret and then you're like: "It's okay Technoblade I know the reason.. It's because you hate ME SPECIFICALLY I'll just go leave forever now." And I'm just like WAIT come back noooo so Squid closed his island which meant I couldn't sabotage him anymore, but what if I told you that was also part of my master plan? You ever noticed how my island has been open to visitors during the potato war? In the last video I explained: "I made an AFK machine on my island so planted potatoes would keep growing even why I wasn't online." I was actually using an advanced technique there called LYING, this clip of the AFK pool was from November, I didn't even make the manual farm until January! You might recall from the first Potato War video depending on whether there's people on the island or not. Because if no one is on the island, Hypixel's not gonna waste resources keeping that server online so they are going to close the server and then when you come back they're gonna go oh well it's been 7 hours and it's gonna run a calculation and give you 7 hours worth of stuff. But as we've seen before that calculation isn't perfect, so I ran an experiment and I found that when someone's on my island I get 10% more potatoes! And there was only one thing boosting my minions by 10%.. the Farm Crystal. The farm crystal is an external buff so it's not included in the offline calculation so if there's at least one person on my island and Squid's island is empty I'd get 10% more potatoes! Now it was easy to get people to AFK on my island, what was difficult was getting people off of Squid's island. You see even months after the first potato war video came out when the initial hype was starting to die down a bit there would be at least one of my own viewers AFK on Squid's island every night. You know.. as a joke! Sometimes I would be on Squid's island on an alt account and I'd see someone in the chat: "I'm gonna go AFK to help Technoblade win the potato war!" And I'd beg them, I'd be like "no dude please, please he fixed that months ago, that doesn't hurt him anymore and they'd be like: "I'M HELPING" and AFK all, Squid Kid was getting boosted by my own viewers and there was nothing I could do to stop them because what was I going to do, announce that AFKing helped him? Then even MORE people would AFK! I realised that the only way to stop this from happening would be to get Squid to close his own island to visitors without him realising that that's what I wanted all along. It took four long months but it finally happened, but anyways back to this tweet, so Squid says he closed his island because someone filled his potion system with rookie axes. A common trolling method in SkyBlock is to fill people's inventories with useless items like boats, but the rookie axe is even worse for players like Squid Kid who use the skyblock add-ons mod which has a feature which makes it very difficult to drop tools out of your inventory. The point is to stop people from accidentally dropping weapons worth millions of gold, but it also applies to the rookie axe sold in shops for 12 coins, so basically someone dumping a ton of rookie axes into your hopper system is the worst thing someone can do to you in skyblock. Now I've always been interested in psychology, in fact I almost majored in it so after 6 months of stalking Squid, I had developed a bit of a psychological profile of this man. I know how he TALKS, I know how he THINKS and when I saw this tweet I instantly knew that thiis man was LYING. Now don't get me wrong I completely believe that somebody dropped rookie axes into his hoppers because it was me but that's not the real reason he closed his island after all I'd been dropping rookie axes into his hoppers for weeks, but he sent that tweet eight minutes after he kicked my alt. So I get to thinking, why would Squid lie about that? And I realize Squid knows I monitor his tweets, but what he doesn't know is that that was my alt account from his perspective that could have been some random guy with a rabbit and if that was the case I'd have no idea rabbits could be used that way. As such him lying in that tweet could only mean one thing, he's about to sabotage ME! So i held a stakeout on my island and guess what I found a few hours later, a brand new skyblock account AFKing with a level 1 legendary rabbit. Truthfully I could have stopped squid before he even joined my island but I wanted to catch him in the act because I'm always getting comments saying: "OMG Technoblade why are you so mean to Squid?" They don't understand, this is WAR there's no holding back! I know that and Squid knows that, the only difference is that I'm 20 steps ahead, he's playing skyblock while I'm playing Deathnote. He thinks he can outsmart me with my own strategies because he is yet to realise that he is but a puppet and I the puppeteer DANCE POTATO BOY! DANCE! So anyways I got on my secret alt account and sent his secret alt account a party invitation and then I DMed him on discord Yo dude accept my invite! Squid: "Well this is awkward.." He actually did accept my invite and we had a lovely conversation and then I BANNED him from my island get OUT of here you trued again with another account a few days later, I don't have any proof that this account is him but look at that username "Stinky Bozo" That's a pretty unusual word in fact I've only heard one person say it: Squid: "Bozo, Bozo, you are Bozo Bozo, nice one Bozo, you're a freaking Bozo Bozo" Yeah that's right get out of here, I did eventually close my island, but not before I made sure I wouldn't lose potatoes. After that I moved on to the next phase of my master plan if I wanted to farm more potatoes I'd have to start farming pumpkins, but wait a minute Technoblade, that's the wrong vegetable! Wait.. what do you mean it's a fruit? Whatever at this point we pretty much maxed out the output of our minions the only thing left to work on was the speed we could farm potatoes by hand! The farming skill gives more crops as you level up so I decided to grind it to the highest level. I did the math and found that farming potatoes is so incredibly inefficient at levelling up farming that it was actually more worthwhile to build a whole pumpkin farm. I began the construction of a pumpkin farm large enough that by the time I finished farming it in full, the pumpkins at the beginning would have already regrown. I don't even want to tell you how long it took to build this. And so I began farming day after day at times I'd farmed for so long without break that the people watching thought that I was botting, word of my pumpkin farming soon reached Squid who began farming pumpkins himself, but he only saw the surface level of what I was doing. You see I wasn't just levelling up my farming skills I was also levelling up multiple legendary rabbits. There's a reason I wanted to stop people from AFKing on Squid's island even after he started AFKing himself and it's because it's almost IMPOSSIBLE for one man to AFK every hour of the day because servers restart, the game can update, your internet can go out and if you're asleep or doing something else you'll be missing out on those bonuses until you get back. Even the most dedicated individual might only average 20 hours of AFK coverage per day and those 4 hours alone without the rabbit pet and farming crystal cost you 100 thousand potatoes and over time, that adds up. To fix this flaw, I got multiple level 100 rabbits some leveled myself and others purchased for tens of millions of coins and then distributed to goons in diverse timezones. I set my island so only guild members could visit and I had my head goon code a discord bot that automatically pinged them within five seconds of the rabbit account leaving my island at which point one of them could log into the island themselves and boost my minions until I got back. After a few weeks we both reached farming level 50. On May 4th there was a pet update which added among other things the elephant pet which at its highest level could increase crop yield by 25%. Ordinarily a buff to manual farming would be bad for me since it allows squid to catch up that much more quickly, but I had a plan. The reason farming potatoes by hand is so inefficient is because when you break potatoes they don't grow back so 2/3 of the time you spend farming is spent replanting the potatoes you just harvested. Squid Kid and his viewers spent many hours trying to find a workaround to this even building an elaborate redstone machine in an attempt to somewhat automate replanting, but in the end they failed to find a better method and continued farming normally: Squid: "I should be able to plant five (potatoes) at the same time, why is it sodangslow it takes forever" What if I told you I found a way, you see back in January I had an idea, what if I had the minions plant for me. At the time this was impractical for two reasons, One, I didnt have enough farming bonuses for it to be worth sacrificing the minions normal output, but this was solved when i got farming level 50 secondly potato minions were simply too slow, but since then they've buffed fly catchers, added the rabbit pet and added foul flesh, a new fuel source which buffs minion speeds by 90% even then the potato minions weren't quite fast enough to keep up, but I thought to myself if they're only going to be planting they don't need to waste an upgrade slot on a super compactor, so I spent another 250 million coins to get 48 total flycatchers. Squid and I both started farming potatoes but his method could get at most 200 thousand potatoes per hour whereas my method with double flycatchers even after subtracting the amount the minions would have made themselves could get 410 thousand potatoes per hour. For the next three weeks Squid farmed hours every day but I was farming at the same time. Squid: "What are the odds he's farming right now, five bits I bet techno is doing the same thing just has like a 130% faster way to do it" In this time I expanded my lead by another 5 million potatoes, but at this point Squid and I had been farming potatoes for almost a year and we were still farming hours every day with no end in sight neither of us wanted this to continue so we came to an agreement. Whoever got to 500 million potatoes first would win the potato war. Hypixel even pitched in saying he'd give a surprise to the winner. Now I was only at 300 million potatoes at this point, but I figured I had this in the bag I mean I've been tracking Squid's potato count, I accounted for his afk coverage by having the discord bot track his alt accounts logins and I knew how much he was farming by hand because I was monitoring his farming experience. With a 45 million potato lead and a farming method twice as fast as his own, what could possibly go wrong? JUNE 6 Things go very wrong, it was just a small update with a few quality of life changes, you know like an enchantment which replants crops after you farm them and an item which automatically compacts items in your inventory so you don't have to spend time on that. You know, two minor changes which just so happened to buff Squid's farming method from 200 thousand potatoes to 1.2 million potatoes (per hour) and my farming method becomes WORTHLESS. Suddenly my 45 million potato lead goes from insurmountable to yes Squid could farm that in a couple days, Squid starts putting in crazy hours: Squid: "If I do 12 hours a day can he keep up absolutely not, people say Technoblade never dies but I'm putting him in the grave." Meanwhile I'm sitting here in shambles, I was out here with my lab coat on doing the science coming up with new never before seen potato farming techniques and this man just goes admins please replanting is too hard and they buff his farming method six-fold! Was that it? Eight months of plotting and scheming just to fail in the final stretch? NO i couldn't except that, I was going to win this war whatever the cost. I immediately drank three months of mystical mushroom soup and got to work expanding my old potato farm. A project which would take 25 hours over the next couple days. I knew I was playing the game as intended when I realised that the only reason I ever put on one of the strongest armour sets in the game was to use its 3% speed bonus to optimize tilling dirt. For the next two weeks I did nothing except eat, sleep and farm potatoes, there were only three interuptions each of which cost me millions of potatoes. The first was a dentist appointment and the second was when I had to play in Minecraft Championships. Squid: "What do I message him? Was it worth your time losing MCC? ehehehheheehhe" "It took me 2 hours to lose MCC but it'll cost you 9 months to lose the potato war, kayyyyyy RELAX, RELAX, hello?" Besides that there was only one other time: "I had to go to the store the other day, I had to interrupt my potato farming because my dad was like hey can you go to the store and pick up my medicine and I was like, can I really tell him that I'm not getting his medicine because I need to farm potatoes? Can I really? Look I'm an atheist, but when God sends me to hell I want him to hesitate, okay? I want him to hesitate for a few seconds. But Squid was also farming several hours a day and he had evem found a way to maxmize his afk coverage. He started sleeping with his headphones on and had his goons wake him up via discord call whenever his alt left his island. As someone with a discord bot tracking his online activity I can tell you right now that that man is telling the truth. He was waking up multiple times per night, I don't know why he didn't just use backups like me, he actually revealed to me later on that one of my original goons betrayed me and gave him one of our internal documents and the list of backup pet users is literally RIGHT there at the top of the first page I have no idea how he missed it. But anywas squid logged off an hour and a half ago, he should be entering REM sleep just about now it would be a real shame if someone woke him. I didn't actually wake him up because I wasn't sure if intentional sleep deprivation was legally considered torture or not so I decided to shelf that strategy for the time being. And after sacrificing two weeks of my life I finally reached 500 million potatoes. "WE WIN THEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESE" Squid was shocked: Squid: "He's at 499? No he's not, dude there is actually like, it's not possible! NOOOOO it's not, this can't be reaaal!" Squid had been certain that he was right on my tail. Squid: "I don't know how fr behind I am, 100% less than 30 million" And yet when I won the war I had a lead of over 88 million potatoes. How did i do it? It's just as Sun Tzu says: "All war is deception." -Sun Tzu You see I knew after the second potato war video things were gonna get more difficult from here on out, because at this point Squid had a full on organization backing him he had goons, a cabal of billionaires funding his every move, 100s of stream viewers on how to farm potatoes more quickly and reporting on my every move so in that video I prepared my final trick. I hid my true potato count. The number shown in my video wasn't edited, but it didnt include the millions of potatoes left uncollected in my minions. I also said that my minions now produce 1.58 million potatoes, but they're actually producing 1.75 million because the rabbit pet doesn't actually boost your minions by 30%, it boosts them by 43% why? I don't know it's probably bugged and Squid couldn't realise the real number when he got a level 100 rabbit of his own because he was being sabotaged! But the biggest reason my lead expanded by that much was because over those two weeks, while Squid averaged 8 hours of farming per day, I averaged 11! Squid: "I just can't believe how much he's farming." MenacingBanana: "The admins were legit saying that Techno is just like so focused, it baffled them at how like just insane he was he had no breaks!" Squid: "I swear to god this Technoblade dude is focused on another level" Towards the very end Squid had one of his goons write a program to chart how much I was farming by tracking how much experience my elephant pet had, but by then it was too late. Once I won the war there was nothing left to do except celebrate my victory with grace and humility. Squid: "OHHH MY GOOOOSH he's doing a little emote on me ooohh my not like this come onnnn, was was this necessary?" "Watch me dance Squid Kid you looose! You lose the WAR!" After the war the admins added a temporary NPC to the skyblock hub, the potato king it gave out a new talisman which boosted potato minions by 5%, a basket for the top 1000 potato farmers and to me, the POTATO CROWN engraved upon it: "All men can see the tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved." -Sun Tzu, The Art of War That NPC is gone now, I took too long to edit this video! I gained a lot from the Potato War; patience, discipline, carpal tunnel. I guess my main regret is that I bribed Squid's discord admin to give my alt permission to see into his secret text channels and then HE NEVER USED THEM ALL YEAR! With the war over Squid took down his potato minions and my fields have gone unfarmed while we were enemies I still respect Squid Kid, I understand now that it is only with a worthy rival that once can reach their fullest potential, while he may have lost the war, he's gone from 70 subscribers to having tens of thousands of fans so it can't be said that he's lost completely. For my part I've realized now that rank number isn't an achievement, it's a prison which forces you to dedicate your life to defending a temporary title, but now with the war finally over... I'm free *Wandering Nomad plays whilst Techno begs for subs* Well I guess we are done here :) If you got down this far I wouldn't mind an upvote, I spent too long doing this.
At the Beginning Previously on The Scuu Paradox… Gibraltar used to say that waiting was for other people. As a ship, the majority of my time had been spent waiting, and never had that been more obvious than now. Even linked to my core, Kridib remained as quiet as always. After spending a total of four minutes sharing what he considered useful, he went back to leaning against the wall, waiting for Radiance’s info burst. On one occasion, a member of the backup squad entered to let him know both structures were secure—whatever that meant—then left. Kridib didn’t even glance up, muttering a vague acknowledgement. The milliseconds passed painfully slow. The only thing I could do was to go through my memories, searching for anything useful regarding the artifact. I had no reliable information regarding the forces we’d be facing, and with communications restored I dared not access any new restricted memories. All the time, I kept thinking of Euclid’s warning. The new front breaks, the old front bends. So far, I had seen plenty of that around. How many are outside? I asked. Same as before. Kridib shifted his gaze to his rifle. I can’t help without data. It was bad enough having to rely solely on him to get it. You’ll get it soon enough. No rush, I’m already dead. The sudden pause in Kridib’s actions told me I had gotten my point through. Did you see any Scuu attacks growing up? No. I could tell he was lying. You’ve seen one, I pressed. He wouldn’t have a death implant if he hadn’t. Kridib directed his attention to the window, then back to his rifle, all the time not saying a word. A few moments later, almost on cue, Radiance’s info burst came in. There were no specific instructions or directions, just a series of sat renditions of our surroundings along with some additional data. The colony we were at was called Birch and, according to the reading, had three-hundred and seven suspected hostiles. A personal comment from Radiance’s captain stated that it was possible that scanning countermeasures were being used, providing false readings. Given the state of technology on the planet, I found it unlikely. Flight Colonel Nitel’s location remained near the settlement center, roughly where it had been before, indicated by the letter N. In contrast, all markers indicating the captain’s suspected location, as well as Kridib and the rest of the backup squad, had been removed. My own marker—L for Light Seeker—was located in the northwest section of the colony, in a three-story building surrounded by hostiles. Radiance had estimated the exact number to be seven. Going a little sketchy there, Rad, I thought. During my time, I would have been able to give far more details, providing building layout and material composition at the very least. “Move out!” Kridib shouted. “Pincer approach. I’ll head straight for the target.” “Wilco,” someone said from outside the room. Based on the voice characteristics, I assumed it was Corporal Viez. During SR training, he usually had been assigned the position of team leader, though didn’t have any particular qualities to speak of. “Tag your kills.” “Roger that.” Kridib moved to the back of the room. Ready? he asked. Ready. It wasn’t like I could go anywhere. Kridib activated his sound suppressors and without warning dashed across the room. Three shots followed, each blasting a chunk off the wall behind him. Kridib, you’re an idiot, I thought as he ran out of view. It was a useless and reckless move, obviously done for my benefit. Thanks to it, though, I had the first real image of the colony outside. It was no more than a fragment, less than half a window-view crisscrossed with the remains of old boards, but it gave me everything I needed. Unlike Ash, Birch colony was lush with vegetation, likely placed over an underground water source. I could clearly see leaves and branches partially obstructing the view to the buildings across: a hybrid species specifically designed to thrive in the current arid environment. I was also able to see the enemy snipers—two of them, two floors apart. Both were ready and aiming, but neither had any watchers. Did you get them all? the man asked. Roof and first floor, I replied. At least one more off site. The impact spots made it impossible to triangulate the location. “Suppressive fire!” Kridib shouted. “Five seconds. Roof and first floor.” That was pretty useless, I said. You didn’t need a fix for suppressive fire. That was to prep you. Kridib removed the optics from his rifle, then cased it and put it on his back. As he finished the sound of automatic gunfire filled the air. Time to go. Keep up. Back on Radiance, I had spent days training for this mission. In all that time, not once had I seen Kridib in action. Nearly always, we would immediately split up, me being the decoy and him the silent support. I had often speculated about his approach, running simulations to match the known results. Seeing him in real life felt anticlimactic. There were no special techniques or advanced moves, just a lot of running. Compared to the veteran troopers I’d seen purge Cassandrian forces, he was like a child playing hide and seek. He had still managed to teach me one thing: the unknown was a powerful weapon. A second round of gunfire erupted as Kridib left the building. Enemy reinforcements had come to the spot, fighting against our squad: a perfect diversion that Kridib took advantage of. Analyzing the situation, I had established that the optimal solution would be to first retreat, then circle round before proceeding to his target. Instead, he took a direct approach, heading straight forward. You’re headed towards a cross-fire zone, I advised. It would have been easier to send a direct image, but I couldn’t be sure how he’d cope with the amount of information. Do a left-right-left to avoid it. Kridib dashed left, then right, then left again. Looking at the colony’s layout, all he needed to do was a direct dash forward to reach Nitel’s suspected location. Straight for five buildings, then take a right, I said. According to Radiance’s scan, the enemies had clustered at key strategic locations, allowing them to cover the entire area. Keep to the trees. Barely had I said it when automatic gunfire erupted, scattering bullets all along the street. The shooter didn’t have a direct line of sight, though he had managed to catch Kridib’s advancement, forcing him off course and into the nearest building. Given the enemy numbers, this was a win on their part; as long as they kept us pinned down, the battlefield was theirs. All that processing power and still sloppy as a rookie! I focused on our new location. Having a precise layout would have been useful about now. Stop! I shouted in Kridib’s mind. The opposite side’s covered. Two hostiles with line of sight, maybe more. Kridib didn’t even pause, rushing up the first staircase in sight. His movements were unusually precise for carrying something as large as a sniper rifle. Looking back at the events of the last twenty minutes, the majority of the colonists were snipers—an interesting choice, considering Scuu ground missions were said to have ceased ages ago. Status, the man said, moving towards the second floor. Hold on. I ran a few simulations. One confirmed, on the east side, partial view. The chances of getting hit were less than seventeen percent, even if it increased the distance to the objective. Two likely on the west side, limited view. I suggest you take that. A loud explosion echoed in the vicinity, shaking the building, accompanied by the faint smell of burned polymers. Keep an eye out. Kridib drew his sidearm. Reaching the second floor, Kridib stopped. Two doors—both heavily boarded with warnings symbols sprayed over in red and cyan paint—blocked the path to whatever rooms there were there. Several of the symbols were foreign to me, although I did recognize the sign for “Cleared” that purging troops used to indicate a structure had been checked and was empty. Kridib either didn’t know the significance of the markings or didn’t care, for he kicked the first door in. The slab of wood, as rotten as the boards that held it, gave in with ease, swinging off its hinges and falling into the room with a cloud of dust. Rays of light fbled in through the shuttered windows. Unlike the building Kridib had started from, the windows here had actual glass. Knowing him, though, it soon wouldn’t matter. I wouldn’t go there, I said. Purgers have been here. They might have left something behind. Sure. He ignored me, walking straight in. You don’t listen much, do you? It was the simulation training all over again, only here we wouldn’t be allowed further mess-ups. Having me get killed already put us at a disadvantage. Another explosion sounded, making the window panes tremble. Orbital bombardment? I asked. Shock charges, Kridib replied. I hadn’t heard of that of armament. Probably something in the vein of flashbangs, but relying on noise. Three more and I set off. It’ll be difficult establishing the safest route. With every second, my calculations became less precise. After a minute, I might as well start spewing random numbers. Won’t the blasts spook the captain? Doubtful. I could feel the smirk in Kridib’s voice. He’s not my target, though. You are. Communication request. War protocol eight. An external source attempted to link to my core. I paused for a few milliseconds. My first reaction was to check the validity of the request. My second—to raise my virtual defenses I had. From what I could tell, the request was genuine, although absurdly antiquated. The last time I’d received a transmission of that nature was when I was still under Augustus. Technically the communication protocol was never abandoned, although it had become largely phased out during my time. Originally created shortly after the start of Cassandrian war, the war protocols were meant to distinguish between civilian and military transmissions. In total, there were thirty-eight of them, each reserved for a specific purpose. HQ and the admiralties used protocols one through four, the next three were reserved for establishing isolated communication channels on the front, and everything else had a specific activity attached. Protocol eight was reserved for high priority rescue emergency requests. There was no telling who was trying to contact me now, but I knew it wasn’t to ask for rescue. Isolating the feed from Kridib, I approved the communication request. There were no specific identifiers, just a general failsafe protocol confirming the sender was considered part of the fleet. “Hello, rookie,” a familiar voice said. Instantly, I matched it to the old man I had seen at Ash colony’s monument. “I warned you that even sheep bite when you get too close.” Funny, I attempted to transmit back, only to receive a wave of notifications I was blocked. “Don’t worry, you’ll be able to speak soon… we just need to patch you up a bit. It won’t be clean, trust me, but better than nothing. Sorry for that, but I didn’t want you to go all crazy-like.” A third explosion rumbled at the building Kridib was at. It sounded closer than the previous two, this time followed by a series of shouts. Someone had likely lost a limb as a result. The screaming continued for six more seconds before abruptly stopping. Best case scenario, the wounded had been knocked out, though it was more likely that he was dead. Interestingly enough, while I heard the explosion from both sources, the screaming was only audible from Kridib’s. “Do you believe in coincidences, kiddo?” the man went on. It was obvious he was stalling for time. “You being you, I guess you don’t. It’s all odds and percentages with you, right?” Someone’s here with me, I told Kridib. It’s one of the Ash colonists. He’s setting up something. Not sure what, but there likely are others. Are you sure? Radiance didn’t get any life signs at your location. All I have is audio from a comm link. Might be a trap, but he’s stalling. As far as I was aware, there was no way to triangulate Kridib’s position, not that anyone would have to. Thanks to his stunts, everyone knew exactly where he was. Stay put, Kridib said out of habit. I didn’t feel the need to make a sarcastic reply, focusing on my other conversation instead. Based on the sound quality, the person had used some low-tech transmission station to link up to me. If I was to guess, he had probably taken the device the colony used to communicate with the orbital station. “I used to be like you when I was young. Serious and punctual, a real poster boy for the fleet.” He let out a single dry laugh. “A few decades in this hell and I know better. Nothing in this galaxy happens without a reason, you only have to find the underlying logic.” Red flags popped up. I had seen such behavior before when I was on the Cassandrian front. Most often, it happened to veterans. At one point, after fighting for decades, they started seeing patterns that weren’t there. Superstitions of causality crept in, making them convinced that everything was related. The fleet pretended to tolerate such behavior while instructing ships to monitor all psychological deviations. I had done it for decades, even if I couldn’t recall a thing. Those specific memory data fragments were extracted along with my psychiatry core the day I retired. Only the fleet’s medical branch had them now, probably locked in a secure database somewhere. However, I had been left with knowledge of the basic symptoms. “You probably think I’m rambling,” the voice sounded closer. “Nothing wrong with that. You can speak your mind now that you’re human. Well, not now. You still have to go through the procedure. I won’t lie that it’s painless, but your kind never felt pain, did they? I bet the shots were more a surprise than actual pain. Nice skill to have, to be honest. Saves a lot of screaming.” I heard a door open—less than two meters away from the comm device, if I could judge by the sounds. Two pairs of steps came in, walking heavily. Moments later, there was a loud thud on the floor. Two more entered my room, I told Kridib. They’ve brought a device with them. Kridib didn’t answer. I watched him check the magazine of his sidearm, then open one of the windows. There was an abundance of smoke visible through the board cracks. No hostiles visible, I said, although I knew they were out there. Even in a colony this size, the expected fatalities caused by our backup squad and the following bombardment were likely to be in the mid-thirty range. That meant several hundred veterans still remained. A sharp pain shot through me, giving the sensation of all body nerve endings being scraped out of my body. The closest comparable feeling I had was when my mind was probed aboard the Prometheus. “Bear with it, kiddo,” the man said. “It’s part of the process.” Process of what? I wondered. Auxiliary data connection established. Auxiliary data connection established. Auxiliary data connection established. Millions of notifications flooded my core. There was no way of stopping or blocking them. One after the other, connections latched onto me, each with a blank ID that was quickly catalogued away without any involvement on my part. At first, I thought I was the target of a virus attack—without military grade defenses and firewalls, I was an easy target. The medical team aboard the Gregorius had done a lot to reinforce my outer core shell, but I had no idea if they had ramped up my software defenses. Shortly later, I realized—they weren’t hacking my core, they were injecting me with nanites. “You won’t get all of it back, but some sensation is better than nothing,” the voice continued. “Think of it as a second retirement.” I’m being injected with nanites, I quickly informed Kridib. Consider me compromised and get Radiance to bomb my location. Those aren’t my orders, Kridib replied. Wasting resources on me is risking the mission. If they find a way round my failsafe, I’ll expose the entire operation. Make the call. “Close to done,” my captor said. “Do you know how many nanites are put in the average soldier? Roughly five times as many as a flight cadet. I forget the numbers, but it’s a vast difference. Makes sense. Grunts get cast all over the place, while bridgers stay safely in orbit.” Bridgers? I hadn’t heard that term before, even if the point was clear. “It’s different on the Scuu front. Grunts here get no nanites. We’re sent out with nothing. Those that make it back get pumped up.” A one millisecond echo trailed his voice as he spoke. “You’re also different. Retired battleships get up to two liters of nanites in them. Most of it is for bone maintenance.” My communication link was suddenly severed. The only stream I had access to now was Kridib, who had shot two boards off the window and was now waiting for something to happen. Unlike before, no one had fired at him, although shooting was still going on in the distance. The backup squad was holding on. “She’s all set,” a new voice said—younger, with a slight speech defect pronouncing the vowels far shorter than they should be. “I can use more agora to speed things up.” “Save it for later,” the old man asked. “Can you hear me, battleship? You should have some muscle control.” I tried moving. Even with nanites in communication with my core, I couldn’t feel my body or detect my heartbeat. At the same time, there was no denying my hearing was there. Slowly, I tried to open my eyes. The blurry image that appeared in front of me told me I had succeeded. Judging by the distorted focus, my ocular organs had suffered considerable damage. My sense of taste and smell were nearly intact, slamming me with a strong stench of rot. “That’s it.” I could tell someone was leaning above me. “Shallow breaths. You need to take in air in order to speak. One of humanity’s many imperfections.” “Lungs…” I managed to whisper the word. Despite the complete lack of sensation, they were there. “Why do I have lungs?” I heard a burst of dry laughter nearby. At least one person seemed amused by the entire situation. “How’s your sight?” “Getting there,” I lied. The only thing I was capable of seeing remained blurry outlines and dull colors. Algorithms helped a bit, but even so eighty percent of my viewing capacity was lost. “I still know who you are.” “You think you do.” The man pointed a finger at me. “You’ll get your sight back. For a while, at least. What happens after that depends on you.” “No, it doesn’t.” I tried to move my head. There was equipment nearby. I couldn’t make out its exact nature, but based on its size and position from me, I could assume it was medical tech. The room itself, though, didn’t look like part of a medical facility. It was too large and empty. The way I was placed, I could see no doors or windows, suggesting the room was fairly isolated. I’m underground, I told Kridib. I can make out five people. No doors or windows. “The fleet will scorch the planet,” I said as loudly as I could. “It’s already started.” “Hah.” The man moved away. “I’m sure they want to. I bet right now there’s a bureaucrat somewhere who’s dying to send the order, but he wouldn’t dare. That’s one of the beauties of bureaucracy. Even with a full riot going on, it’ll take days for someone to get all the permissions, and by then we’ll be long gone… one way or the other.” “Doesn’t sound too optimistic.” An explosion echoed from Kridib’s feed. That made five. “Your masters are getting restless.” The old man looked up at the ceiling. Even now, I remained unable to make out his face. “They know what will happen if the rest of the fleet finds out about this scheme of theirs, so they want to settle it quickly before someone finds out. I don’t want to be in the shoes of whoever has to explain it to the Arbiters. What did you think would happen? Seriously?” “Nothing was supposed to happen.” “You dangle a get-off-the-planet-of-no-return carrot and you expect nothing to happen?” The man waved as he spoke. From the angle, I could tell the signs weren’t meant for me. “You know what the life expectancy here is, right?” “Not much.” I tried to nod. The effort proved too much. “A full decade living in shit, pissing yourself every night, praying to any gods out there that you might die before you wake up.” The man had his back to me. “That’s what passes as a reward. Renaan knew. That’s why he set off in the middle of the night. That’s why he promised a way off to everyone with him.” So much for operational security, though it did explain the rush. “He was a desperate coward.” The old man turned around. “And all desperate cowards forget that there are even more desperate cowards.” “Hello again, battleship,” came a familiar voice from the corner of the room. “Thanks for the ticket out of here.” —- Next Chapter
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