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Why TOK could be as magical as TTYD and 64

Just before I start I want to say that I've never actually played TTYD or 64 (The only game in the series I played was actually color splash) but I have seen extensive footage so I believe I have an Idea of what people are looking for in this game. Please note that I'm not trying to say that TOK will be better than these two since I'm not even in the right to say so since I've never actually played those games before, I just want to reason why this game could truly be magical and maybe could be comparable to the magic of the first 2 (and maybe super paper Mario, i haven't seen much on it so I can't say much on the matter.)

1 The writing and story

The writing and story of the first 2 games are definitely major factors to why these games are held to such a high regard. The story of TTYD is definitely high up there with amazing Mario story's and the arcs of the partners were surprising emotional for a Mario game. There's a reason why in Japan it was originally called Mario's Story. Anyhow my point is is that I'm almost certain that the writing will be great in TOK and perhaps even comparable to the first 2, and here's my reasoning! As we know the same team is behind this game as the team that worked on CS and SS, which may come as a concern to some and rightfully so, BUT atleast in the writing department I'm actually very excited! I've never seen anything on SS and I've heard the writing was just paper jokes so I can't say much on that matter but I will be shifting my focus to CS. I've played CS and I don't think I've laughed during a game more than when I was playing CS. The jokes were constant and we're almost always worth a good chuckle! A lot of people said it was just paper jokes the whole time but even replaying it there were more of a rare occurrence. Sure there was the occasional visual gag but it moved on quickly and didn't dwindle on such jokes. Most of the jokes were genuinely funny and you could tell the writers really had fun with the game (there were even subtle gun control and drug dealing jokes mixed in!) Now to some this may seem like a bad thing, we want a serious story! Not constant jokes! I also want the same thing and I think I can trust this team! Sure CS was a humor filled game but It knew when to take it's self seriously! When talking to a shy guy on the shy guy express he really pours out his heart to Mario and it's honestly one of the most emotional things I've seen in a while in a Mario game! (If you haven't seen the conversation then you have to look it up!) He then says a really heartfelt goodbye and you can even talk to him again if you beat him in a jungle fog level. He says some more heartfelt things before he presumably dies (I mean he literally explodes). There's no jokes or anything mixed in to ruin the moment, it's just a fully heartfelt moment to really get you to think on the perspective of the "bad guys" in bowsers army. Now I am aware that many more heartfelt things are in the original 2 while there's only really this one in CS (If you don't count the ending which I do because it really shows a sweet side to Huey), BUT I believe there's only 1 heartfelt moment because of what the writing team had to work with. There was no partners besides Huey which was really just your guide and it was pretty much the same Bowser kidnaps Peach plot again so they really didn't have much to work with. I'm sure they just added in this heartfelt moment just for fun and it really shows the writing skills! In short I think we can trust the team to write a really good story for this one filled with both comedy and emotional moments because of the new deep plot that we're given, and yes I meant to say deep! Allow me to explain, so King olly the new antagonist captures peachs castle and Mario has to go and save her. Nothing crazy there, but then we see peach and she seems totally off as if she's in some sort of brain-washing cult, which is pretty dark! That's not all, if you didn't know Oliva (your little side buddie seen throughout the trailer) is actually king Olly's sister!!! (Found on the Nintendo paper Mario TOK website) Remember that we found Oliva suck in a wall and we have to get her out... Who put her in the wall though?? Could it have been her own brother??? I mean it would make the most sense, we don't know for sure but either way we know that Oliva is seemingly against her brother which has so much potential for a pretty crazy emotional story and again as stated before I really trust the writers with this one because it really seems they were given alot more free will with this game! Also if you think about it it's almost as if the king is draining his victims of free will, keep in mind we literally see bowsers origami transformed minions drag away a Koopa and even turn against Bowser and presumably will change Bowser into origami next. It may bother people that the whole plot revolves around paper again and I can definitely see the concern but seeing all of the crazy potential with this one I'm definitely seeing a great story unfolding here! I really feel like the paper thing won't have a huge part of atleast the emotional part of the story that seems to be a brewing!
P.S. remember how the trailer opens up, it has this really ominous music with peach asking you to submit!! Then she says goodbye with creepy scattered letters which honestly always gives me chills! It seems like the devs are really taking the story seriously this time! I know that you could argue that peach asking to CREASE yourself and that your lines are PAPER THIN are stupid paper jokes and that they ruin the mood, in my opinion they pull it off surprisingly well, I still feel chills from when she says it and I feel like while still stupid paper puns they deliver a much more ominous tone due to the atmosphere and how out of place they feel...

2 Battling and Partners

(We really don't know much about this topic so I tried stating what we already know and things that are almost 100 percent certainly true.)
The battle system is ring based. You only have a certain amount of time to turn the rings in a strategical way. You also only have a certain amount of ring moves depending on the battle and once you lock in you move it will count as a ring movement. The timer will then disappear as it's only tied to the ring movements. A menu will then appear with the option of a normal jump or a normal hammer which are permanent basic move sets of the battle so far (and these are presumably early on moves as we can see shiny boots in the trailer for a short time in the trailer which I will discuss shortly). When selecting the jump move you will then select a row of enemies that you want to attack and then you will proceed to attack that row of enemies one after the other if the button prompt is pressed at the right time. We have not seen the hammer in action yet so it's unknown if we will attack one enemy at a time or if it will attack a whole row just like the boots. It seems we cannot choose specific enemies in a row but we can choose the row of enemies we want to attack which in my opinion will add alot of puzzle elements in the battle as you will need to set up rows of enemies correctly in that you have hammer only hittable enemies in one row while you have boot only enemies in another. (Just as a small example) While some may be dissatisfied that we don't have the old fighting style back I think this has a chance to be truly interesting or perhaps even better than anything we've had before. (It may seem like a silly claim but hey you never know!) I don't know if I've ever seen a 360 degree battle in an RPG format (Please tell me if there is a game like it because I'm probably dumb and I just don't know the game with a 360 degree system). This game takes this 360 degree battle to another level though by adding a wheel format! Just think of the infinite amount of possibilities in battle, you also would need to think fast and use your wheel turns wisely as you only have so much time and so many moves to make the battle easy for yourself!! One wrong move and you could have yourself in quite the pickle! Now we have no Idea what the difficulty of the game is but it seems they're thinking of older audiences by making the basic battle system very in-depth (atleast compared to CS and SS). There's also an audience and a cheer button which we have no idea what the function of that is yet. We see shiny boots in the upper left corner of one of the battles which may scare some but it's almost certainly an upgrade boot as it has the same icon with some tweaking to make it shiny! It also does more damage than the normal boots so it definitely seems we will have atleast some sort of upgrading move system or buying new moves of some sorts. (This is purely speculation and I know I said I wouldnt get into that but I couldn't help myself! I'm sorry :(, but I think its almost a 99 percent chance to be that but with Games we can never know so you may disregard that statement if you so choose). There's also an items section that you access with the plus button. We have no idea what it could be however. There's a green bag under your health while in the over world which we also don't know what it does. It's almost certain that there's no FP. Sometimes there's a 1-UP above your health, we don't know what that does yet. Now let's move onto partners. We do not know if they have a role in battle so I will not be talking about that. What we can be for certain however is that they're overworld partners/tag alongs. We can see bob-omb with you in the 2nd world and the 4th world of the game (I know it's the 2nd and 4th as you can see different ribbons on the screenshots and those ribbons correspond with pipe colors that take you to different worlds. (We can't know for sure that those pipes take you to the world's or are fast travel places but it seems to be a safe bet, even then we see different ribbons in the gameplay so it's not like your companionship with bob-omb is short). You could argue that you're just jumping around from ribbon to ribbon as in color splash you were jump from area to area pretty often as your path is usually blocked which is definitely possible in this game and probably apart of the gameplay as we can see Mario with 50 health, which is almost definitely the starting health in the red ribbon area, which if we believe the pipe room theory, is the 5th area of the game out of the 6 areas (6 pipes)! All we know is that we see your little bomb partner in way too many screenshots to be a one off gag or something. Again some things here are ALMOST certain which is why I included them as it would be completely silly if it weren't that way but alas the world is a cruel place so we cannot be 100 percent for sure. We also see an explorer toad follow you in a certain stage and even follow you into battle but we don't know if he will have a role or not. We also see Bowser (and he looks like a wet floor sign haha!), kamek and Bowser Jr follow you in screen shots. So we can say for sure that you will atleast almost always have partners that may or may not be changed out every few stages or world. I bring this up because before I said that I trust the writing and I'm especially excited for this writing! Again this is giving alot of potential for emotional and cute interactions between Bowser and his enemies and it may give us a whole new perspective! With what little that they had to work with in color splash they truly made the writing magical so I can't even imagine what they're going to do here (Remember that it's the same team behind this too!) With what little we've seen we've already seen many cute moments between the atleast overworld partners. Now they may not be original designs and have default names which is definitely a disappointment as it's not difficult to implement, but as the writing has some much potential I feel like in the end it will be more of a small criticism rather than a game breaking element, atleast in my opinion.

3 Game Asthetics

This game looks BEAUTIFUL! Some may disagree which is a fair opinion to have but even if you don't like the art style the places to explore look like a joy! Honestly I feel like CS had already some amazing and memorable places to explore but was just held back by the world map! Again almost seemingly 100 percent the world map is gone as it was not shown and seemingly replaced with overworld free reign traveling as seen as in the desert with the goomba shoe and in the ocean with the boat. We can actually see what seen like individual places on this overworld too so it seems much more connected. Just looking through the trailer and screen shots the places we've seen look like they're gonna be the best looking yet, even the basic starting area with the forest looks so beautiful! It's up for debate wether all of the world's them selves are connected as it seems we can just straight up travel where ever we want and the pipes could just be a fast travel, making toad town some sort of hub (all speculation however!)

4 Concerns

While I think this game can truly be magical and I think I trust the devs to make the right decision this time I feel like I must address main issues even if I don't think it'll be a problem! First we don't know if there's any XP system, we see Mario's health increase throughout the game but it could be story tied just like CS. If there isn't an XP system then the whole game could be ruined but even color splash had a tiny XP system so I doubt there will be no XP system. Another concern is partners in battle. We need partners in battle!!! They are so crucial to the game! We do see a toad with Mario in battle which was later taken down by Nintendo themselves which is very odd! Basically all of the concerns are mostly focused on battle as they could make or break the game. From what we've seen we haven't seen anything that makes it look bad, unless you don't like the ring system which to me looks interesting but others may finding it another silly gimmick which is a fair opinion! The trailer was too vague to jump the gun and say it's gonna be another SS or CS but also too early to say it's gonna be amazing. Now that may make me sound hippocratic which is probably true but I looked at the game with only the information we knew or things that are almost a definite possibility. This game has so much more potential than what meets the eye and I think as long as Nintendo doesn't royally screw up it could truly be magical. Now you may say they probably will mess up but look at the switch and what they've done for a lot of series, I would say don't be too down in the dumps but don't over get your expectations too high as it may leave you disappointed. (I can't help but be too excited for this game though! Everything looks so promising)!
Extra
I was gonna talk about the 1000 fold arms but it's too early to tell if they're just a dumb gimmick or if it will be more interesting than what meets the eye. Also keep in mind Nintendo took down a trailer with toad seemingly as a partner by your side in battle, which is super weird and they haven't shown much on battling, as if they're keeping it for a future reveal trailer later this month or in June? I think once more information reveals are shown I will make a new post stating for a fact wether this game with be truly magical or if it's just another paper thin game. (From what we've seen though I think it's heading in a very great direction)!
Conclusion
Are you excited for this game? Do you think it'll be another disappointed or do you think Nintendo could truly turn this sinking ship around? Did I give you more hope in the game? Did I give you even more of a reason to resent this game more? Please share your thoughts below! Remember everyone has a right to there opinion! Do not be rude just because someone thinks differently! I would love to hear your doubts/excitements below!
P.S. I do not think this game will be a true return to form as it's gonna be quite different but I do believe that it has the full capability of being truly magical just like the first 2. My opinion isn't the most valid as my opinion maybe slightly jaded as color splash was truly my only paper Mario experience while the other 2 I just watched so there's no way that I could've fully experience the magic of those games but I definitely saw why people loved those 2 games and I feel like TOK by the looks of it could match up to it! Maybe I'm too optimistic and I'm expecting too much from Nintendo, and since I never truly experienced the original 2 games there's no way I can have a say in how magical they truly are, so please tell me wether you think I'm totally off or may be on the right track! Also remember that all of this stuff is at the very least! I'm sure they will be much more but it's best to set for the lowest possible quality as to not to be too disappointed if something goes a rye.
Also can I just mention how friendly this community looks? Only a few hours in and I already feel so welcome without meeting anyone! It just feels so much nicer than all of the toxicity on Twitter! (I know it must feel like this post will never end haha!) Stay safe out there and I hope to update y'all soon ;)
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Offseason with Cidolfus: Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks

There’s no way to discuss the Miami Dolphins looking ahead to the 2020 season without addressing the elephant in the room. Ever since Ryan Tannehill was shipped off to the Titans, a single question has loomed large over the future of this franchise: who is the long term answer under center? As we head into the 2020 draft with a top-five pick, it’s a question we’re going to be hearing an awful lot over the next few months.
I’ll be blunt from the outset: a great deal of this series this year is going to deal with that question. I understand that this is going to cause contentious debate, just as it has throughout the season and will continue to throughout the offseason. I understand also that some of my takes about our strategy this season are going to be controversial.
I’ve tried to stay out of the pro-/anti-tank arguments throughout the season as much as possible. I have not always been successful. Spoiler alert for those who hadn’t already caught on: Cidolfus was pro tank. I understand that this position makes many of you viscerally angry just as I understand that many who supported tanking were annoyed at those celebrating “meaningless” wins. So before we get going, I want to ask everyone to keep one thing in mind not only in regards to my own commentary to follow, but for any discussion in this series or in the many other posts that are sure to occur over the next several months:
Let people be fans in whatever manner makes them happy.
I understand that we have emotional reactions to this sport. Nevertheless, it bears reminding: football is a sport and watching is supposed to be fun. If someone wants to win every Sunday because it’s just more fun to win? Good for them. If someone is willing to trade losses now for a perceived advantage in the long term and is happy to see us lose now because they think it’ll be better later? Good for them. If someone wants to bandwagon a team because they just like to watch winning football on Sundays? Good for them. If someone wants to pick the Dolphins as their team for the future because they like the animal? Pity the poor fool, but good for them.
It’s not my job, your job, or anyone else’s job to tell someone else how to enjoy watching sports, so we should all just try and live and let live. That’s not to say that we can’t discuss these differing viewpoints. The whole point of this series is to generate discussion. Just keep it respectful.
Like last year, I plan on posting one of these each week throughout the postseason, and then when I can find time as appropriate through the offseason I’ll try to follow up with an additional free agency and draft discussion. I’m expecting a lot of real work to hit me beginning on March, though, so we’ll see what happens. As always, this series will be primarily geared towards team-building with a focus on contract management under the salary cap. I don’t pretend to be any great evaluator of NFL talent and instead rely pretty heavily on other sources for that type of analysis. This analysis is pretty statistics heavy, by which I mean the math part. Disclaimer: I’m not a statistician and I’m pretty far removed from what little stats I took in college at this point, so as far as the real math goes, it’s still going to be pretty rudimentary.
With all that said, let’s start The Offseason with Cidolfus III.

The Quarterback Conundrum

Whether you’re a believer or a skeptic of Flores as the coach to drag this franchise kicking and screaming out of mediocrity, I hope it is not too controversial to suggest that getting a quarterback should be our first priority from a roster-building standpoint.
But of course it is.
Especially due to the recent uncertainty regarding Tua Tagovailoa’s intentions to declare for the 2020 NFL draft, this subreddit has seen enthusiastic suggestions from using any of our three first round selections all the way to not even drafting a quarterback in the first three rounds at all and instead rolling into the 2020 season with Fitzpatrick and Rosen. Some suggest faith that Rosen can still develop into the heir apparent. Others recommend punting to the 2021 draft where we can try our chances at Lawrence or Fields. Still others suggest that first round quarterbacks are overrated and point to successes found in the middle and later rounds.
Those who have read these posts in previous years know that I’m a numbers guy. So I spent a good chunk of my holiday vacation this year compiling statistics on every quarterback drafted since 2000 to see what we can learn to inform a strategy as how to best find your future quarterback in the NFL. The data has mostly been culled from Pro Football Reference cross-referenced with Wikipedia for information on when players were rostered but did not play. Being a numbers guy, I would have liked to get into some more advanced metrics like ANY/A+ (which is useful for comparisons over a long period of time since it’s normalized to the league average over a three year period). Unfortunately, this information, and many other stats (like QBR) were not available going back the full twenty years, and I wanted to be as consistent as possible. Instead, I decided on 12 different values across three broader categories:
Activity: Availability is the best ability in the NFL. How many games did the player start? How many seasons was that player on an active roster? What percent of their possible games played did they start? What was the QB win percentage in starts?
Accolades: How many accolades did the quarterback acquire over their career? A lot of people will make appeals to these accolades when determining a player’s value, and while I find them the least helpful for this discussion, it’s good to know for argument’s sake. How many Pro Bowls, First Ballot All Pros, and MVPs did the player receive? How many Super Bowls did they win?
Stats: Nothing too fancy here. How did the player perform over their career? We’re looking mostly at career completion percentage, touchdown to interception ratio, adjusted net yards per attempt, and passer rating. These are some easily-digestible, high-level metrics on a quarterback’s general passing performance. I intentionally omitted rushing performance from this analysis because it’s so extremely skewed in favor of a small handful of quarterbacks that the data wouldn’t be particularly useful.

Some Caveats and Acknowledgments

I tracked total attempts initially as a metric to exclude or weight individual quarterback stats. For example, when calculating the average ANY/A, I wasn’t satisfied with simply taking the simple mean of the stat across all quarterbacks in a given round. After all, why should Tyrod Taylor’s 5.96 ANY/A on 1362 attempts be weighed just as heavily as Jordan Palmer’s -2.50 ANY/A on a mere 18 pass attempts?
On the other hand, weighing these stats would vastly overinflate the value of any single long-time player to skew the averages of any single round. Tom Brady’s 9959 career attempts, for example, account for more than 50% of passes thrown by sixth rounders drafted in the past 20 years. Tom Brady is obviously an outlier in the dataset: to weigh his 7.08 ANY/A as over 50% of the entire sixth round would dramatically skew the results even further.
As a result, I have not weighted any of the stat averages based on attempts or games player or any other metric of longevity. I admit that this skews the results the other way. Sticking with the sixth round, 26 of the 43 players drafted threw 50 or fewer attempts their entire career. Many of them never threw a pass in an NFL game, which I evaluated as straight 0s across the board. I decided that this is very much the point for this analysis: if a quarterback never throws an NFL pass, that is a completely unsuccessful draft pick.
I do not expect NFL drafting behaviors in general to change. Most sixth-round quarterback selections will never get a legitimate chance to start, so tracking averages in such a way that devalues a sixth-round quarterback by scoring them as straight 0s while allowing even bad first round selections to put up marginally better numbers is at least an acceptable reflection of a team’s actual attempts to draft quarterbacks.
There are going to be variables I can’t account for, at least not with the data available to me. Rules changes and general trends in the NFL have resulted in the bar moving pretty dramatically upwards especially in the past couple years.
With that all out in the open, let’s take a look at the past 20 years of drafting quarterbacks. As a quick note, I’ve made the assumption that Lamar Jackson wins the MVP this season (because obviously), but I’ve not projected a winner of the 2020 Super Bowl.

Round by Round

The quick and dirty: 242 quarterbacks were drafted between 2000 and 2019. Let’s start with a simple breakdown of the averages.

Means by Round

Round Players Drafted Games Started Seasons Rostered Start % Win % Pro Bowls All Pros MVPs Super Bowls Completion % TD:INT ANY/A Passer Rating
7 36 8.44 3.86 5.31% 6.39% 0 0 0 0 22.86% 0.28 1.06 24.87
6 43 15.53 4.58 8.86% 13.87% 0.39 0.14 0.08 0.17 36.67% 0.67 2.34 43.02
5 34 3.50 3.74 4.77% 15.27% 0 0 0 0 27.38% 0.35 1.81 31.80
4 26 16.08 5.35 14.57% 21.05% 0.12 0 0 0 50.07% 0.72 3.17 60.43
3 26 22.42 6.08 19.42% 22.41% 0.35 0 0 0.08 50.17% 0.98 3.64 62.03
2 21 41.38 7.29 30.83% 35.97% 0.48 0.19 0 0.05 53.18% 1.07 4.28 67.06
1 56 70.52 7.38 58.57% 46.68% 0.93 0.11 0.11 0.13 60.12% 1.59 5.50 82.68
ALL 242 28.16 5.41 23.02% 23.96% 0.36 0.06 0.04 0.07 43.10% 0.95 3.18 53.88

Medians by Round

Round Players Drafted Games Started Seasons Rostered Start % Win % Pro Bowls All Pros MVPs Super Bowls Completion % TD:INT ANY/A Passer Rating
7 36 0 3.00 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 43 0 3.00 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 34 0 3.00 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 35.80% 0 0.11 17.05
4 26 3.00 4.50 4.48% 5.00% 0 0 0 0 56.80% 0.59 4.37 63.95
3 26 10.00 5.00 13.28% 22.22% 0 0 0 0 59.00% 0.89 4.45 74.10
2 21 21.00 6.00 26.79% 38.71% 0 0 0 0 58.60% 0.86 4.68 72.70
1 56 50.00 7.00 63.54% 47.54% 0 0 0 0 60.30% 1.43 5.47 81.70
ALL 242 7.50 4.00 93.11% 20.00% 0 0 0 0 56.20% 0.71 4.11 69.00
A couple things to note looking at both of these tables in tandem: accolades are a poor metric by which to judge the worth of a quarterback pick in each round. This is easy enough to explain: the same few players have won the same awards multiple times in the past 20 years and there are also a limited number of each award per season. Only one quarterback can win MVP or win the Super Bowl, but multiple players can post a solid ANY/A over 6.00 each season. This scarcity is reflected by the median where the vast majority of players never win any of these awards. Case in point: Tom Brady accounts for 13.63% of all Pro Bowl nods, 33.33% of all First Team All Pros and MVPs, and 37.5% of all Super Bowl victories in the entire population examined. That doesn’t change that drafting a quarterback in the sixth round is functionally worthless.
Similarly, the number of seasons rostered and games rostered correlates very strongly to draft position. This shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone, as even poorly performing players often get more opportunities to start draft position. The steadily increasing seasons rostered also indicates that the higher drafted a player is, the more likely they are to play a second contract. A median seasons rostered of 3.00 for rounds 5-7 indicates that quarterbacks drafted in those rounds are more often than not cut before completing a standard rookie contract.
At a glance, the data confirms what most probably suspected already: the higher a quarterback is drafted, the more likely it is that the team got it right and the quarterback in question was a successful pick. What can be observed from above is the general trend that all statistical measures trend positively with the round the player is selected. In general, from the data here it should be pretty obvious that a team is not likely to find their franchise quarterback after the third round as the means for nearly every category for all of those are lower than the means of all quarterbacks drafted. Shocker: quarterbacks in the back half of the draft are, on average, worse than the average of all quarterbacks drafted. So the question then becomes: how do the top three rounds stack up?

Completion Percentage

Round Mean St. Dev. St. Dev. of Mean From Mean of All
1 60.12% 3.82% 0.64
2 53.18% 17.81% 0.38
3 50.17% 21.73% 0.27

TD:INT

Round Mean St. Dev. St. Dev. of Mean From Mean of All
1 1.59 0.81 0.42
2 1.07 0.80 0.08
3 0.98 1.02 0.02

ANY/A

Round Mean St. Dev. St. Dev. of Mean From Mean of All
1 5.50 0.98 0.79
2 4.28 2.09 0.38
3 3.64 2.15 0.16

Passer Rating

Round Mean St. Dev. St. Dev. of Mean From Mean of All
1 82.68 9.89 0.79
2 67.06 27.33 0.36
3 62.03 29.78 0.22
Again as expected, the first round selection is, in aggregate, better. Importantly, though, first round selections are better not just because they have higher mean values for the stats we’re tracking here; they are better because they typically have less variance and also because they’re notably better relative to an average quarterback from the entire draft. Not only is the average ANY/A of a first round selection much higher than that of a second or third round, the standard deviation within its own population is dramatically lower. It’s a safer pick. The standard deviations of the mean from the mean of all draft selections also suggest that the average first round pick is, in general, better relative to the average of all picks than the second or third is. Again, that shouldn’t be a surprise given what we’ve already seen and the positive correlation between draft status and performance.
The takeaway from this should not be that you can only find success in the first round of the NFL draft for QBs or that top-selected quarterbacks are locks (more on that later). This is obviously and demonstrably not true. The takeaway should be that in the aggregate, quarterbacks in the first round are more successful than those drafted in any other round, and it’s not particularly close.
This brings me to the first of the draft suggestions proposed that I want to directly address.

But the best quarterback from the 2011 draft was a third rounder!

Look at Russell Wilson! Look at Dak Prescott! Drew Brees! Tom Brady! They are some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and they were all drafted outside of the first round. Tony Romo was a really good quarterback, and he even went undrafted! You don’t need to draft a quarterback in the first round to find your quarterback of the future.
Let’s look at all the teams in the NFL and who was projected as the team’s starting quarterback headed into the preseason and what round they were drafted in.
Team Quarterback Round
Arizona Cardinals Kyler Murray 1
Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan 1
Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson 1
Buffalo Bills Josh Allen 1
Carolina Panthers Cam Newton 1
Chicago Bears Mitch Trubisky 1
Cincinnati Bengals Andy Dalton 2
Cleveland Browns Baker Mayfield 1
Dallas Cowboys Dak Prescott 4
Denver Broncos Joe Flacco 1
Detroit Lions Matt Stafford 1
Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers 1
Houston Texans Deshaun Watson 1
Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck 1
Jacksonville Jaguars Nick Foles 3
Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes 1
Los Angeles Chargers Philip Rivers 1
Los Angeles Rams Jared Goff 1
Miami Dolphins Ryan Fitzpatrick 7
Minnesota Vikings Kirk Cousins 4
New England Patriots Tom Brady 6
New Orleans Saints Drew Brees 2
New York Giants Eli Manning 1
New York Jets Sam Darnold 1
Oakland Raiders Derek Carr 2
Philadelphia Eagles Carson Wentz 1
Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Roethlisberger 1
San Francisco 49ers Jimmy Garoppolo 2
Seattle Seahawks Russell Wilson 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jameis Winston 1
Tennessee Titans Marcus Mariota 1
Washington Redskins Case Keenum Undrafted
Only 10 of 32 teams planned to start a quarterback drafted outside of the first round at the beginning of this season. Of those teams planning to start a quarterback drafted outside the first, three of them were rostering quarterbacks drafted in the first who were expected to start at some point of this season (Josh Rosen, Dwayne Haskins). A full 75% of NFL teams went into 2019 planning to start a first rounder at quarterback at some point.
Tom Brady is one of 43 sixth rounds who has amounted to anything. Minshew has a chance at being the second, but his head coach won’t even commit to him as the starter for next season despite his solid performance. What Brady and Minshew have in common is that both got their first opportunity to start because the guy ahead of them on the depth chart who had just inked a massive new deal got injured.
Drew Brees had an up-and-down start to his career in San Diego before he started lighting the world on fire in New Orleans. Dak Prescott, like Brady, got the nod to start because Tony Romo got injured. He looked good in pre-season and flashed there, but if Romo doesn’t go down, is Prescott still the heir apparent? Does he survive two seasons on the bench, or do the Cowboys bring in competition when Romo retires?
Even Russell Wilson wasn’t projected to be the starter when he was drafted. The Seahawks had just inked a deal with Matt Flynn and he was expected to be their starting quarterback. Nobody was betting on the undersized guy to beat him out for the starting gig. Wilson came in and started playing extremely efficient football, sure. But without Beastmode pounding away on the ground and the Legion of Boom keeping scores low, how does that story go?
To be clear, I’m playing devil’s advocate here. I’m not saying this to discredit these players, but rather to demonstrate the reality of the circumstances in which they were drafted. The Patriots and the Seahawks didn’t outsmart everyone by drafting Brady and Wilson late. They got lucky. If Bill Belichick really, truly believed that Tom Brady would lead the Patriots to six Super Bowls, he wouldn’t have waited to the sixth round to draft him.
Banking on getting lucky is not a valid team-building strategy.
Tom Brady, Gardner Minshew, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Drew Brees are the only quarterbacks drafted outside of the first round in twenty years to have a completion percentage of 60%, a TD:INT ratio over 2.00, and an ANY/A rating over 6.00. That’s a pretty low bar for franchise quarterbacks these days, and only eight out of 186 quarterbacks drafted outside of the first round qualify.
I’ll say it again for those in the back: banking on getting lucky is not a valid team-building strategy.

First Round Breakdown

So Cidolfus, you might say, what about within the first round? Top quarterback picks are overrated. Look at the past few seasons: the top QB drafted often isn’t the best QB in the draft. This is often true, so let’s take a look at the numbers here, too. I’ve broken down the quarterbacks selected in the first round by those taken in the top 5, those with picks 6-15, and those with picks 16-32.

Means by Pick

Picks Players Drafted Games Started Seasons Rostered Start % Win % Pro Bowls All Pros MVPs Super Bowls Completion % TD:INT ANY/A Passer Rating
16-32 17 50.76 7.41 38.59% 44.77% 0.59 0.18 0.18 0.12 58.99% 1.60 5.12 76.70
6-15 14 55.14 6.07 56.32% 45.94% 0.79 0.07 0.07 0.14 60.19% 1.59 5.45 82.87
1-5 25 92.56 8.08 73.42% 48.39% 1.24 0.08 0.08 0.12 60.85% 1.58 5.74 84.22

Medians by Pick

Picks Players Drafted Games Started Seasons Rostered Start % Win % Pro Bowls All Pros MVPs Super Bowls Completion % TD:INT ANY/A Passer Rating
16-32 17 33.00 7.00 32.64% 41.67% 0 0 0 0 58.10% 1.19 5.12 76.70
6-15 14 33.50 5.00 57.29% 46.22% 0 0 0 0 59.20% 1.40 5.38 78.95
1-5 25 73.00 7.00 76.79% 50.00% 0 0 0 0 61.50% 1.57 5.80 86.10
The first round plays out similarly to the entire draft. In general, quarterbacks taken in the top five (which, in this data set functionally means quarterbacks drafted in the top three, as only Philip Rivers and Mark Sanchez have been drafted at fourth and fifth overall respectively) are better in the aggregate than those selected elsewhere in the round.

Completion Percentage

Round Mean St. Dev. St. Dev. of Mean From Mean of First
1-5 61.50% 3.16 0.36
6-15 59.20% 4.00% -0.24
16-32 58.10% 5.00 -0.53

TD:INT

Round Mean St. Dev. St. Dev. of Mean From Mean of First
1-5 1.58 0.47 -0.01
6-15 1.59 0.91 0
16-32 1.60 1.14 0.01

ANY/A

Round Mean St. Dev. St. Dev. of Mean From Mean of First
1-5 5.80 0.78 0.31
6-15 5.38 1.32 -0.12
16-32 5.12 0.93 -0.39

Passer Rating

Round Mean St. Dev. St. Dev. of Mean From Mean of First
1-5 86.10 7.71 0.34
6-15 78.95 12.45 -0.37
16-32 76.70 10.85 -0.60
Like before, nothing too surprising here. We already knew that first round picks had relatively low variance, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see statistics clustered really heavily here. Only the touchdown to interception ratio doesn’t outright favor the top five picks, and even then the first five picks have the lowest standard deviation and a difference of 0.02 on a touchdown to interception ratio is only one extra touchdown for every fifty interceptions. That the standard deviation of the means for the 6-15 and 16-32 picks are below the mean of the entire first round in general also isn’t too surprising when considering that nearly half of the quarterbacks taken in the first round in the past twenty years have been taken in the first five picks.

What This Means About the Draft

So, to summarize so far: quarterbacks taken in the first round tend to be better than quarterbacks taken in any other round. They generally post better aggregate stats and there’s also a trend of decreasing variance among draft picks the higher you pick. The same applies to the first round itself but on a smaller scale. In the aggregate, a top five pick on an NFL quarterback not only typically yields the highest average performance, it is also the safest place to draft a quarterback as those who are drafted in that position exhibit the lowest variance of their performances. All of these numbers support what conventional wisdom already tells us.
What should definitely not be ignored in this conclusion, however, is that the data also tells us one other very important thing, and it’s yet another thing that conventional wisdom tells us: drafting a franchise quarterback is really, really hard. If we conclude that the average top five pick is the best chance we have in the aggregate, we also have to come to terms with the fact that the average top five pick also isn’t a great quarterback.
A career completion percentage of 60.19%, a touchdown to interception ratio of 1.59, an ANY/A of 5.45, and a passer rating of 82.87 for a player who wins 46.22% of their games and starts for not even three and a half seasons of games is not great. For some perspective: those numbers are worse than Tyrod Taylor’s career numbers.
A top five quarterback pick is obviously not a lock for a franchise quarterback, but it offers the best chance to find your guy.

What About Free Agents or Trades?

All right, so that’s the draft, but that’s only part of how you put together a roster in the modern NFL. What about our options in free agency or on the trade market? Historically speaking, starting quarterbacks who hit free agency or are traded do so for a reason. You don’t have to go back nearly as far as 2000 to demonstrate my point here. Just look at the last several seasons of transactions:
  • Josh Rosen traded to the Dolphins for a 2nd and a 5th
  • Ryan Tannehill and a 6th traded to the Titans for a 4th and a 7th
  • Nick Foles signed by the Jaguars, 4 years, $88 million
  • Joe Flacco traded to the Broncos for a 4th
  • Case Keenum and a 7th traded to the Redskins for a 6th
  • Case Keenum signed by the Broncos, 2 years, $36 million
  • Kirk Cousins signed by the Vikings, 3 years, $84 million
  • Alex Smith traded to the Redskins for Kendall Fuller and a 3rd
Hindsight on most of these has looked pretty bad for the team acquiring the quarterback. Cousins and Tannehill have been the most successful of the bunch, but that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement. Tennessee is obviously glad to have Tannehill this year (as are we all), but in 2019 Tannehill and Derrick Henry had a combined salary cap cost under $4 million. The Titans have $48 million in cap space in 2020 and Ryan Tannehill, Logan Ryan, Jack Conklin, and Derrick Henry are all unrestricted free agents. Cousins hasn’t lit the world on fire in Minnesota, and I don’t think anyone is rushing to call his fully-guaranteed contract the deal of the century, but it hasn't been the worst deal in the world.
Teams do not generally let good quarterbacks go unless they have a clear successor ready to roll in their absence. When you see names like Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota, or Jameis Winston thrown around this offseason, take a look at who’s replacing him on that roster and ask why we would want to pay veteran quarterback money for someone another team is ready to walk away from.

Okay, So What?

That’s all great, but what does this tell us? There are three prime takeaways from this:
In the aggregate, quarterback performance appears to correspond with draft position. The higher the quarterback is drafted, the better the in general he is likely to be. Most quarterbacks drafted aren’t very good. Busts are common even at the top of the draft where a team has the best chance to find their guy. Free agents are free agents for a reason. If a team is willing to let a quarterback go, odds aren’t good that he’ll be someone substantially different with another team.
With all of this in mind, how should it inform our strategy moving forward? The first takeaway suggests that we shouldn’t bet on beating the system by passing on quarterbacks until later in the draft. It takes a special kind of hubris as a general manager to believe that you’re smarter than everyone else and will be able to find your guy that all the other teams slept on. In the hunt to find a quarterback, most teams will have to invest meaningful draft capital into the position. We have the fifth overall pick, and if a guy we think can be our franchise quarterback is available at that position, we’d be foolish to wait until one of our later firsts or even our seconds to draft him. The only reason that we should be passing on a quarterback in the first round this year is if we do not think that guy is there.
The second takeaway suggests that the single most important thing that we can do to maximize our chances to find our quarterback of the future: keep drafting them. Since Dan Marino left, the Dolphins have drafted six quarterbacks:
  • Josh Heupel (2000; Round 6, Pick 177)
  • Josh Beck (2007; Round 2, Pick 40)
  • Chad Henne (2008; Round 2, Pick 57)
  • Pat White (2009; Round 2, Pick 44)
  • Ryan Tannehill (2012; Round 1, Pick 8)
  • Brandon Doughty (2016; Round 7, Pick 223)
That’s fucking scandalous. In the twenty years since Dan Marino retired, the Dolphins have drafted only six quarterbacks, and only one of them in the first round. We’ve relied heavily on free agents and castoffs from other organizations trying to replace one of the greatest pure passers of all time.
Last year we spent a second round and fifth round selection to trade for Josh Rosen, a first round pick only a year removed from being selected 10th overall. He hasn’t been able to supplant the textbook definition of a journeyman quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick this season. There’s no indication beyond wishful thinking that we should be willing to allow Rosen to be the only young quarterback developing on our roster right now. I believe strongly that unless our front office truly, truly believes that our quarterback of the future isn’t in the 2020 draft, we should be spending our fifth overall pick drafting a quarterback. And even if we don’t love anyone enough to take them at five, we should still be open to drafting someone in the second or third if anyone falls.
As mentioned earlier, the hiring of Chan Gailey as our offensive coordinator probably suggests some level of commitment to Ryan Fitzpatrick as a starting quarterback for at least the beginning of the 2020 season, but no sane fan believes that the 37-year-old journeyman is our future. That said, keeping him on does allow us to avoid throwing a quarterback right into the fire. The reality is that quarterbacks drafted in the first round rarely sit for their rookie seasons anymore. Mahomes only played the last game of his rookie season after the Chiefs had already clinched and Rodgers obviously sat behind Favre, but they’re the two notable exceptions in more than a decade. Even though I expect Fitzpatrick to kick the season off, it’s a good bet that he won’t start the full season.
And then, until we are absolutely certain that our young starting quarterback is the future of our franchise, we should continue to draft quarterbacks. Obviously you don’t need to continue to invest high picks every single year, but until a team has committed to a quarterback on a long-term, veteran contract, it’s in the team’s best interest to continue to invest picks in rounds 2-4 on quarterbacks at least every other year.
One of the biggest mistakes the Dolphins made during Ryan Tannehill’s tenure was ignore the quarterback position after drafting him. The front office should have been drafting quarterbacks if not to push him then to have a young, cheap back-up quarterback with upside. When Tannehill went down with an ACL injury, it’s an absolute travesty that our front office made no effort to augment our QB room until Tannehill reinjured the ACL and missed the season and instead overpaid to bring Jay Cutler out of retirement.
Tannehill’s injury not progressing as expected or being reinjured should have been a scenario we planned for, and that we signed Cutler so late suggests that we never had a serious conversation about what a season of Matt Moore would look like. With Tannehill recovering from injury, we should have used that as an opportunity to add a young guy with upside to our quarterback room. Would it have worked out any better? Given the quarterbacks who came out of the later rounds of the 2017 draft, probably not, but that’s something we know in hindsight, and given the results of the 2017 season and the cap cost of Cutler, it’s a move we should have made.
This team shouldn’t make the same mistake again. The Miami Dolphins have pussyfooted around investing in finding a quarterback for the future through the draft for years, and it’s time that changes. I’ll address my specific thoughts on our options in the draft later in this series. Frankly, until Tua Tagovailoa makes an announcement tomorrow, it’s really too early to say anything for sure. Even if you’re skeptical of Tua for whatever reason, his availability likely shifts how other quarterback-needy teams act (including the possibility of jumping us as the Cardinals did to secure Rosen). In the meantime, to sum up my thoughts on general strategy:
We should almost certainly draft a quarterback in the first round of this year’s draft. Probably at fifth overall unless we really, truly, do not believe in any of the guys available. We should continue to spend middle-round selections on quarterbacks in subsequent seasons until we’re absolutely certain we have our quarterback of the future. Even after we have our quarterback of the future, we should continue to invest in selecting quarterbacks in the later rounds regularly (although not every year) to try to develop talent from within.
What are we looking to find? Based on the numbers, in order to meet what most people would expect of a starting quarterback in today’s NFL, expect the quarterback to hit the following benchmarks at minimum:
  • Completion percentage of at least 60%
  • TD:INT ratio of at least 2.0
  • An ANY/A of at least 6.0
Typically, if a player manages to hit all three of those benchmarks, he’s well on his way to being a winning quarterback, although not necessarily an elite one. And as we’ve just seen in the wildcard round, having a quarterback who’s good enough can sometimes be enough.
Next week, I'll be continuing with where I usually start with this series, the season review including thoughts on the coaching staff, player performance, and a review of in-season transactions. Enjoy the rest of wildcard weekend, all.
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[Preview] American League Division Series – Minnesota Twins (101-61) at New York Yankees (103-59)

Minnesota Twins (101-61) at New York Yankees (103-59)
The Minnesota Twins, baseball’s most improved team from 2018, travel to the Bronx to take on the powerhouse New York Yankees. For the Twins, this series represents their second trip to the postseason in three years — they lost the 2017 AL Wild Card Game to the Yankees — and first ALDS appearance since 2010. For the Yankees, this is their third consecutive trip to the postseason — they lost the 2017 ALCS to the Astros and the 2018 ALDS to the Red Sox — and seventh in the last decade. The ALDS represents the first step in each club’s pursuit of the World Series. Minnesota is looking for its fourth World Series title, and first since 1991, while New York is chasing its 28th World Series title, and first since 2009.
Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
Friday, October 4 Saturday, October 5 Monday, October 7 Tuesday, October 8 Thursday, October 10
7:07 pm ET 5:07 pm ET 8:40 pm ET TBA TBA
Yankee Stadium Yankee Stadium Target Field Target Field Yankee Stadium
Where to Watch/Listen
TV: FS1, MLBN
Streaming: FOX Sports app, MLB.TV
Radio: ESPN Radio, WFAN 660/101.9 FM, TIBN
Weather Forecast
Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5
Temperature: 66 F Temperature: 63 F Temperature: 60 F Temperature: 64 F Temperature: 71 F
Precipitation: 20% Precipitation: 10% Precipitation: 10% Precipitation: 10% Precipitation: 20%
Humidity: 61% Humidity: 49% Humidity: 57% Humidity: 62% Humidity: 55%
Wind: 14 mph Wind: 10 mph Wind: 10 mph Wind: 11 mph Wind: 7 mph
Betting Odds
Minnesota: +210
New York: -245
Who are the Twins?
Season Expectations: After a deflating 78-win season in 2018, expectations were tempered for the Minnesota Twins heading into 2019. The team had not won the AL Central Division since 2010 and had taken a step backward from its 85-win campaign in 2017. Attendance too had deflated from over 3 million in 2011 to under 2 million in 2018. Projection systems saw the Twins as a mediocre team with an outside shot at a Wild Card spot — Fangraphs predicted 82 wins while 538 predicted 84 wins. But the Twins shrugged off the doubters, blew away expectations, reached 100 wins for only the second time in franchise history, and saw attendance reach its highest level in five years.
Roster Moves: At the end of 2018, the Twins said goodbye to future Hall of Famer Joe Mauer and then fired Hall of Famer Paul Molitor from his position as manager. After hiring newbie Rocco Baldelli as manager (perhaps Manager of the Year?), the Twins grabbed first baseman C.J. Cron off waivers from Tampa Bay and signed second baseman Jonathan Schoop, designated hitter Nelson Cruz, and infielder Marwin Gonzalez in free agency. Analysts were skeptical of the Twins decision to pass on pitching upgrades, but Minnesota’s front office was convinced they had the ingredients in place to build a championship caliber team. The Twins added relievers Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson before the midseason trade deadline to bolster the pen.
Offense: Boy howdy can this Minnesota team hit. Nelson Cruz (163 wRC+) was a slam dunk free-agent success, catcher Mitch Garver (155 wRC+) decided to hit like Ken Griffey Jr., third baseman Miguel Sano (137 wRC+) stayed healthy enough to make a huge impact, rookie jack-of-all-trades Luis Arraez (125 wRC+) had a quietly solid year, and right fielder Max Kepler (121 wRC+) and shortstop Jorge Polanco (120 wRC+) had career years at the plate. The Twins had an incredible eight players hit 20 or more home runs (all of the above aside from Arraez plus left fielder Eddie Rosario, Cron, and Schoop), and overall, the club smashed 307 home runs, the most in all of baseball.
Defense and Baserunning: The Twins ranked dead last in team stolen bases (28 SB) by a large margin, and their only player with more than five stolen bases on the year was center fielder Byron Buxton who is out for the postseason with a shoulder injury. Defensively, the Twins grade out as a solid, if unspectacular, defensive unit. The aforementioned Buxton is the team’s true defensive superstar, though Gonzalez and Kepler are standouts as well. Sano, Rosario, and Arraez at second base grade out as below average.
Pitching: The Twins starting rotation is stronger than you think — the rotation ranked 7th in fWAR, 11th in ERA, 8th in FIP, and 13th in K-BB% in 2019. Comfortably above average. The 25-year-old Jose Berrios led the way (3.68 ERA/3.85 FIP), and the veteran Jake Odorizzi (3.51 ERA/3.36 FIP) was quietly excellent behind him. Kyle Gibson, Martin Perez, and the now-suspended Michael Pineda rounded out the rest of the rotation with varying degrees of success. Minnesota’s bullpen was even better, ranking 3rd in fWAR, 10th in ERA, 1st in FIP, and 3rd in K-BB%. Taylor Rogers (2.61 ERA/2.85 FIP), Trevor May (2.94 ERA/3.73 FIP), Tyler Duffey (2.50 ERA/3.06 FIP), Zack Littell (2.68 ERA/3.62 FIP), and Sergio Romo (3.18 ERA/3.35 FIP) have proven very difficult to score against.
Record: At no point were the Twins under .500 this season. They took the division lead on April 20 and held it for all but one day the rest of the way. Minnesota’s best month was May, in which they went 21-8 (.724), and by June 2, they found themselves 11.5 games up in the division, their biggest lead all year. The Twins cooled off a bit in June and July, while the Indians got hot, and by August 11 the AL Central Division was all tied up. But the Twins pulled things together and when the season ended, they were a cool eight games up on the second-place Indians.
Wrap Up: The Twins are one of baseball’s elite power teams with a deep lineup that is perilous to navigate. They also feature an underrated pitching staff, anchored by two legit quality starters and a group of very effective relievers. While the history of Yankees vs. Twins playoff battles is very one-sided, there’s no reason for past failures to haunt this young, confident group.
Who are the Yankees?
Expectations: For the second year in a row, the Yankees entered the season as a World Series favorite. Coming off a 100-win campaign (and quick postseason exit), the Yankees looked to replicate their recent regular season success, while reaching the World Series for the first time in a decade. Some analysts questioned the team’s decision to pass on top-tier free agents — such as outfielder Bryce Harper, infielder Manny Machado, and starting pitcher Patrick Corbin — but consensus found that the Yankees were likely to once again play in October. FanGraphs and 538 both projected 97 wins for the Bombers. The Yankees met and exceeded those lofty predictions.
Roster Moves: Despite passing on the top-tier free agents, the Yankees had a busy offseason. They re-signed left fielder Brett Gardner, reliever Zack Britton, and starters CC Sabathia and J.A. Happ. They traded for starter James Paxton and signed reliever Adam Ottavino and second baseman D.J. LeMahieu in free agency. Once the season started, the Yankees added outfielder Cameron Maybin.
Offense: Unsurprisingly, the Yankees were one of the best offensive teams in baseball, enjoying excellent hitting seasons from expected and unexpected sources. Right fielder Aaron Judge (141 wRC+) anchored the lineup while healthy, first baseman Luke Voit (126 wRC+) had a successful first (almost) full season in the majors, second baseman Gleyber Torres (125 wRC+) built off his fantastic rookie season, LeMahieu (136 wRC+) crushed expectations, and Gardner (115 wRC+) had a bounceback year at the plate. Third baseman Gio Urshella (132 wRC+), outfielder Mike Tauchman (128 wRC+), and Maybin (128 wRC+) came out of nowhere to deepen the lineup.
Defense and Baserunning: While the Yankees (55 SB) more than doubled the Twins’ stolen base total this year, that number was only good for 24th in baseball. No Yankees player stole more than 10 bases on the season, though infielder Tyler Wade stole seven bases in just 43 games. Much like the Twins, the Yankees are a middle-of-the-road defense. Judge, Gardner, the now-injured Tauchman, and LeMahieu were the team’s top defenders, while Torres, Voit, and Urshela received below-average grades for their glove work.
Pitching: James Paxton (3.82 ERA/3.86 FIP) led a rotation that struggled for large parts of the season. The recently suspended Domingo German (4.28 ERA/4.92 FIP) and Masahiro Tanaka (4.45 ERA/4.27 FIP) were good at times, but bad at others. And veterans Sabathia and Happ closed out the rotation with disappointing seasons. Fortunately for the Yankees, their bullpen helped carry the slack. The four horsemen — Ottavino (1.90 ERA/3.44 FIP), Britton (1.91 ERA/3.74 FIP), Tommy Kahnle (3.67 ERA/3.33 FIP), and Aroldis Chapman (2.25 ERA/2.31 FIP) — delivered the goods, while Chad Green was excellent after a weird April mechanical issue was straightened out.
Record: Things started slowly for the Yankees as they went 5-8 through the first few games of the season and found themselves 5.5 games back in the division race on April 18. But as things settled in, the Yankees’ talent emerged and by May 17 they were in first place. For a month, they battled the Rays for the division lead, taking the lead for good on June 13 and never looking back. The Yankees played .550 ball or better in every month of the season and never had a losing streak longer than four games.
Wrap Up: With a potent offense top-to-bottom, an army of elite relievers, and enough quality starters (perhaps) to get through October scheduling, this club looks like a team built for one purpose — to win a championship. Their lineup punishes opposing pitchers, and their bullpen cuts down opportunities to rally. And after a season in which they set the all-time record for team injuries, the Yankees are already used to adversity.
Head-to-Head Regular Season Matchups
All-time: Yankees are 1125-768 (.594)
Last 10 years: Yankees are 46-21 (.687)
Last 3 years: Yankees are 13-6 (.684)
2019: Yankees are 4-2 (.667)
Postseason Matchups
2003 ALDS: Yankees won 3-1
2004 ALDS: Yankees won 3-1
2009 ALDS: Yankees won 3-0
2010 ALDS: Yankees won 3-0
2017 WCG: Yankees won 1-0
Notable Position Players
2019 All Stars in bold. Players on the Injured List (or suspended) are in italics.
Twins Player Stats Yankees Player Stats
C Mitch Garver 155 wRC+/-0 DRS C Gary Sanchez 116 wRC+/-2 DRS
C Jason Castro 103 wRC+/-7 DRS C Austin Romine 95 wRC+/1 DRS
C Willians Astudillo 76 wRC+/-2 DRS 1B Luke Voit 126 wRC+/-6 DRS
1B C.J. Cron 101 wRC+/2 DRS 1B Mike Ford 134 wRC+/-1 DRS
2B Jonathan Schoop 100 wRC+/0 DRS 2B Gleyber Torres 125 wRC+/-6 DRS
2B Luis Arraez 125 wRC+/-8 DRS 2B Tyler Wade 88 wRC+/3 DRS
SS Jorge Polanco 120 wRC+/1 DRS 2B DJ LeMahieu 136 wRC+/5 DRS
SS Ehire Adrianza 102 wRC+/-2 DRS SS Didi Gregorius 84 wRC+/-5 DRS
3B Miguel Sano 137 wRC+/-5 DRS 3B Gio Urshela 132 wRC+/-5 DRS
RF Max Kepler 121 wRC+/4 DRS RF Aaron Judge 141 wRC+/19 DRS
CF Byron Buxton 111 wRC+/10 DRS CF Aaron Hicks 102 wRC+/-1 DRS
LF Eddie Rosario 103 wRC+/-6 DRS LF Giancarlo Stanton 139 wRC+/-1 DRS
OF Jake Cave 113 wRC+/-2 DRS OF Brett Gardner 115 wRC+/5 DRS
OF Marwin Gonzalez 93 wRC+/7 DRS OF Mike Tauchman 128 wRC+/16 DRS
OF LaMonte Wade 98 wRC+/-2 DRS OF Cameron Maybin 128 wRC+/1 DRS
DH Nelson Cruz 163 wRC+/-- DH Edwin Encarnacion 121 wRC+/--
Notable Pitchers
2019 All Stars in bold. Players on the Injured List (or suspended) are in italics.
Twins Pitcher Stats Yankees Pitcher Stats
SP Jose Berrios 3.68 ERA/3.85 FIP SP James Paxton 3.82 ERA/3.86 FIP
SP Jake Odorizzi 3.51 ERA/3.36 FIP SP Masahiro Tanaka 4.45 ERA/4.27 0FIP
SP Michael Pineda 4.01 ERA/4.02 FIP SP Luis Severino 1.50 ERA/2.13 FIP
SP Kyle Gibson 4.48 ERA/4.26 FIP SP J.A. Happ 4.91 ERA/5.22 FIP
SP Martin Perez 5.12 ERA/4.66 FIP SP CC Sabathia 4.95 ERA/5.66 FIP
SP Devin Smeltzer 3.86 ERA/4.58 FIP SP Domingo German 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP
SP Randy Dobnak 1.59 ERA/2.90 FIP RP Aroldis Chapman 2.21 ERA/2.28 FIP
RP Trevor May 2.94 ERA/3.73 FIP RP Adam Ottavino 1.90 ERA/3.44 FIP
RP Taylor Rogers 2.61 ERA/2.85 FIP RP Zack Britton 1.91 ERA/3.74 FIP
RP Tyler Duffey 2.50 ERA/3.06 FIP RP Chad Green 4.17 ERA/3.34 FIP
RP Ryne Harper 3.81 ERA/3.66 FIP RP Tommy Kahnle 3.67 ERA/3.33 FIP
RP Zack Littell 2.68 ERA/3.62 FIP RP David Hale 3.11 ERA/3.32 FIP
RP Sergio Romo 3.18 ERA/3.35 FIP RP Luis Cessa 4.11 ERA/4.87 FIP
RP Cody Stashak 3.24 ERA/3.01 FIP RP Nestor Cortes 5.67 ERA/5.57 FIP
RP Brusdar Graterol 3.86 ERA/3.43 FIP RP Jonathan Holder 6.31 ERA/4.45 FIP
RP Lewis Thorpe 6.18 ERA/3.47 FIP RP Jonathan Loaisiga 4.55 ERA/4.95 FIP
RP Kohl Stewart 6.39 ERA/6.06 FIP RP Cory Gearrin 4.50 ERA/4.79 FIP
RP Fernando Romero 7.43 ERA/5.17 FIP RP Stephen Tarpley 6.93 ERA/5.69 FIP
ALDS Rosters
Twins Roster TBA
Yankees Roster TBA
Team Offense Rankings
Category Twins Stat Twins Rank Yankees Stat Yankees Rank
BA .270 2nd .267 4th
OBP .338 6th .339 4th
SLG .494 2nd .490 3rd
wRC+ 116 3rd 117 2nd
wOBA .347 2nd .346 3rd
ISO .224 1st .222 2nd
K% 20.9% 4th 23.0% 12th
BB% 8.2% 20th 9.1% 12th
BsR -8.2 25th 0.4 15th
Team Rotation Rankings
Category Twins Stat Twins Rank Yankees Stat Yankees Rank
ERA 4.19 11th 4.51 15th
FIP 4.09 8th 4.74 18th
xFIP 4.34 10th 4.38 12th
K% 22.4% 13th 23.8% 9th
BB% 7.1% 9th 7.3% 11th
H9 1.22 6th 1.76 28th
WPA 2.06 7th 0.80 9th
Team Bullpen Rankings
Category Twins Stat Twins Rank Yankees Stat Yankees Rank
ERA 4.17 10th 4.08 9th
FIP 3.92 1st 4.15 9th
xFIP 4.16 6th 4.15 4th
K% 25.0% 10th 26.4% 3rd
BB% 7.5% 1st 9.4% 11th
H9 1.21 9th 1.30 15th
WPA 4.23 4th 3.77 5th
Team Defense Rankings
Category Twins Stat Twins Rank Yankees Stat Yankees Rank
FanDef -7.2 21st 4.8 13th
DRS -9 19th -16 22nd
UZR -8.0 20th 4.8 13th
Connections
Yankees reliever David Hale pitched for the Twins in 2018.
Yankees third base coach Phil Nevin played for the Twins in 2006.
Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks played in the Twins minor league system from 2008 to 2012 and for the Twins from 2013 to 2015.
Twins starter Michael Pineda pitched for the Yankees from 2014 to 2017.
Twins reliever Zack Littell played in the Yankees minor league system in 2017.
Twins infielder Ronald Torreyes played for the Yankees from 2016 to 2018.
Twins outfielder Jake Cave played in the Yankees minor league system from 2011 to 2017.
Twins bench coach Derek Shelton played in the Yankees minor league system from 1992 to 1993.
Twins hitting coach James Rowson played in the Yankees minor league system in 1997.
Things to Watch
Youth at the Top: Twins manager Rocco Baldelli is only in his first year as MLB manager, while Yankees manager Aaron Boone is in his second. Baldelli was the winningist rookie manager in Twins history, while Boone had a fantastic second season guiding an injury-plagued club. These guys could finish no. 1 and no. 2 in the AL Manager of the Year race, but how will they hold up in October?
Bombs Away: The two premiere home run hitting ballclubs meet up in the 2019 ALDS. They are the only two teams to cross the 300 HR mark in baseball history, and just one home run separated the Twins (307) and Yankees (306) this year. If recent history is any indication, these teams could hit home runs at an even higher pace in the postseason.
My Kingdom for a Stolen Base: The Yankees (24th in MLB) and Twins (30th) didn’t steal many bases in the regular season, so who will they turn to if they need a bag swiped in a crucial playoff moment? For the Yankees, Tyler Wade (7 SB/0 CS) is probably that guy, though Cameron Maybin (9 SB/6 CS) may be another option. Things are much bleaker for the Twins. With Byron Buxton on the shelf and Jorge Polanco and Eddie Rosario penciled into the starting lineup, their best stolen base threat may be rookie Luis Arraez (2 SB/2 CS).
Home is Where the Heart Is: The Yankees are 57-24 (.704) at home, one of the best marks in baseball. They’re also 7-2 (.778) at home in the last two postseasons. But the Twins actually play better on the road (.679) than at their home ballpark (.568), so they may be exactly the team to dissolve this New York advantage.
A Tale of Woe: The Twins are 2-13 (.133) in postseason games against the Yankees. But the 2019 team has little to do with those past versions, and they’re eager for a chance at postseason redemption against their persecutors. “Organizationally, I just say it’s time to slay the dragon, right?” team president Dave St. Peter told the NY Post on Saturday.
Rotation Problems: With Domingo German on administrative leave and CC Sabathia and J.A. Happ moved to the bullpen, the Yankees head into the postseason with a rotation of James Paxton, whose last outing was shortened by a glute injury; Masahiro Tanaka, who is sporting a 5.26 ERA in the second half; and Luis Severino, who only made three starts this year due to injury. With Michael Pineda suspended for PED use and Kyle Gibson moved to the bullpen, the Twins enter the postseason with a rotation of Jose Berrios, who has a 4.64 ERA in the second half; Martin Perez, who is carrying a 6.27 ERA in the second half; a combination of rookies Devin Smeltzer and Randy Dobnok, who have a total of 11 career MLB starts between them; and Odorizzi. Not quite how the organizations drew this up in the offseason.
Lean on Me: Both teams are likely relying on similar battle strategies: get what you can out of the rotation, hope your offense goes nuts, and lean on your key relievers in big moments. Minnesota’s Rogers/Duffey/Romo/May/Littell group (2.73 ERA/3.28 FIP) and New York’s Chapman/Ottavino/Britton/Kahnle/Green group (2.80 ERA/3.25 FIP) are on a collision course.
Staying Healthy: Twins infielder Luis Arraez suffered a grade 1 ankle sprain on Saturday, jack-of-all-trades Marwin Gonzalez is trying to work his way back from right oblique tightness, and right fielder Max Kepler has missed about two weeks worth of games with a rhomboid muscle strain. Yankees designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion is recovering from a left oblique strain suffered on September 12, starter James Paxton says he’ll be fine after leaving Friday’s game with a nerve irritation in his glute, and third baseman Gio Urshela is nursing a left ankle sprain described as “mild.” These six players hope to be ready to go by ALDS Game 1, but there’s no guarantee they’ll be at 100 percent.
submitted by Constant_Gardner11 to NYYankees [link] [comments]

Required Knowledge and Strategies for Sexual Self-control

Required Knowledge and Strategies for Sexual Self-control
Below is a practical post, created to help people abstain from pornography and/or masturbation. It is broadly divided into two sections. The first section is what Christianity and the Scriptures say about sexual matters, and the second section is short term and long term strategies to overcome PMO.
I will say it at the start, true victory comes through Christ. What does this mean? It means that you must be willing to change your ways and then believe upon the Lord Jesus, who died on the cross two thousand years ago to forgive you of your sins. To fight the 'flesh', the carnal nature that you have, you need the Spirit of God, and this only comes through faith in Christ, a Christ who saves us from our sins, yes, even our sexual sins.
May God use the information below to impact the soul in ways glorifying unto God.
N. B. the full and updated version of this post can be found here. Feel free to share this post in other communities and to those in need. The more people helped, the better.

Christian Sexual Ethics and Morality

Sex has become an obsession in the world, and particular, western society, today.
It is estimated that 30 percent of all data transferred across the Internet is pornography. Many films produced by Hollywood contain nudity and soft-core pornography. Children are taught Sex Education in our schools, with the curriculum widening each year. Media networks write articles and report on it. 64% of young people, ages 13-24, actively seek out pornography weekly or more often. (Barna Group)
A hundred years ago, in Protestant and Catholic Europe, things were not as they are now. Much has changed, but "sexual obsession" is nothing new.
For example, in Ancient Rome, prostitution was "legal, public and widespread." Pornographic paintings were featured among the art collections in respectable upperclass households. Pederasty was practised.
After WWI in Berlin, prostitution arose, initially as a means of survival for desperate women, but and became normalised in the 1920s, including youths of both genders. The German army issued coupons for sexual services at approved brothels. Thrill-seekers came to Berlin to frequent the erotic night entertainment venues. Berlin even had a museum of sexuality during the Weimar period.
Are there any dangers to a sexually-obsessed society?
Definitely.
Pitirim Sorokin, a Russian sociologist, found that virtually all political revolutions that brought societal collapse were preceded by a sexual revolution in which marriage and family were devalued.
J. D. Unwin, author of Sex and Culture (1934), is quoted as saying; "in human records there is no instance of a society retaining its energy after a complete new generation has inherited a tradition which does not insist on pre-nuptial and post-nuptial continence."
How does an unhealthy preoccupation with sex endanger individuals and the collective?
  • People become distracted and therefore blind to the external threats to their society e.g. infiltration and subversion, foreign armies, environmental degradation etc.
  • People care less about what goes on within their society e.g. injustices, liberties being lost, disease, education etc.
  • Sex overloads the dopamine receptors which causes less people to enjoy the small pleasures in life in the way they used to. Academic studies and athletic pursuits all suffer for the sexually-obsessed.
  • Increased sexual activity almost always leads to the outbreak of new venereal diseases, which can wreak havoc on a society's population
Clearly, a pornographic culture is evident in the West today, but how should we respond to this?
Only by repenting and believing upon Jesus Christ, can the chains of sexual sin be truly loosed.

Sexuality in Scripture

The Bible was written by men who transcribed the revelation of God. To understand the views of God in regards to His finest creation, man, one must have a good knowledge of His Scriptures.
The apostle Paul is the most prolific writer on sexuality, but Jesus also talked about lust and adultery. The Patristic Fathers followed in their footsteps, advocating chastity and sexual self-control.

Romans 13:13 - 13 Let us walk properly as in the daytime, not in orgies and drunkenness, not in sexual immorality and sensuality, not in quarreling and jealousy.
Galatians 5:19-21 - 19 Now the works of the flesh are evident: sexual immorality, impurity, sensuality, 20 idolatry, sorcery, enmity, strife, jealousy, fits of anger, rivalries, dissensions, divisions, 21 envy, drunkenness, orgies, and things like these. I warn you, as I warned you before, that those who do such things will not inherit the kingdom of God.
1 Corinthians 7:1-2 - 1 Now concerning the matters about which you wrote: “It is good for a man not to have sexual relations with a woman.” 2 But because of the temptation to sexual immorality, each man should have his own wife and each woman her own husband.
1 Corinthians 6:18 - 18 Flee from sexual immorality. Every other sin a person commits is outside the body, but the sexually immoral person sins against his own body.
Matthew 19:8-9 - 8 He said to them, “Because of your hardness of heart Moses allowed you to divorce your wives, but from the beginning it was not so. 9 And I say to you: whoever divorces his wife, except for sexual immorality, and marries another, commits adultery.”
Matthew 5:27-28 - 27 “You have heard that it was said, ‘You shall not commit adultery.’ 28 But I say to you that everyone who looks at a woman with lustful intent has already committed adultery with her in his heart.
Leviticus 18

The Bible is clear. Pre-marital sex, pornography, lustful looking, adultery, orgies, etc. are all sins, transgressions of God's Law. The Law, the Old Testament, shows us that we have failed to live up to God's standard, but fortunately, God sent His Son (a Person of the Trinity), Jesus Christ to die on a cross 2000 years ago for yours and my sin, so that if we have faith in Him, our sins might be forgiven and we may have eternal life! Now that is a love that lasts.
Though we obtain salvation through faith in Jesus Christ, we are still tempted by the Devil to return to former ways. God will sanctify us and make us more like Christ but we have to cooperate in this sanctification process.
Below is some information and a plan of action, to help you find relief from the temptations of the flesh. I pray a prayer, that we all might be released from the grip and slavery of the vice of pornography and sexual immorality.

N.B. if you are using a mobile smartphone, when you reach the tables below, you may have to scroll left to see all the columns.

SHORT TERM KNOWLEDGE

In the fight against sexual immorality, I believe it is helpful to break the fight down into short term and long term knowledge and strategies.
1. Learn about the Addiction Cycle
https://preview.redd.it/jh5rxumcrfq41.png?width=246&format=png&auto=webp&s=002f690a373a8abb77ec97ec07ae265d8f83f5ac
2. If you suffer from porn-induced OCD, learn some management techniques
  • The Schwartz OCD 4 Steps Rule: https://hope4ocd.com/foursteps.php
  • When compulsions arise, recognise that nothing happens if you refuse to act. Nothing dreadful is going to happen to you. Just allow the thought to pass over your mind, through one ear and out the other. It may help to visualise this.
3. Recognise that you are NOT alone in your struggle
1 Cor. 10:13 - 13 No temptation has overtaken you that is not common to man. God is faithful, and he will not let you be tempted beyond your ability, but with the temptation he will also provide the way of escape, that you may be able to endure it.
  • "In terms of basic results, they found that 73 percent of women and 98 percent of men reported internet porn use in the last six months, for a total of 85 percent of respondents. For porn use within the last week, the numbers were lower: 80 percent of men and 26 percent of women." Psychology Today
  • "Thirty-seven percent of male clergy of various faith traditions report Internet pornography as "being a current struggle," and 57 percent of that group report compulsive Internet pornography use, according to a paper, "The Internet and Pornography,"" NCR Online
  • Know that there are many testimonies of people that have overcome their dependency to internet pornography. These can be found on YouTube or websites through a simple Google search.
4. Recognise that you have been born into a cultural war. The Sexual Revolution, starting in the 1950s, has gathered pace and forced our parliaments to change its laws so that we, later descendants, would be burdened down by sexual immorality and vice. Despite previous generations allowing this sin, we must take responsibility for our own actions. A brief overview of the key events in the Sexual Revolution:
https://preview.redd.it/2pl55tc2sfq41.png?width=544&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1af06aba49fd1e9062104900bf44c4440cf452b
5. Tell and involve a trusted friend, church member? Although this is not a necessary step, many people have found this a healthy thing to do. Your friend may also struggle with the same problem and both of you may benefit be confiding in each other. Older church members may be able to give you good advice, however, it should be noted, that few of them will understand totally your predicament as porn was not so readily available back then and people did not really talk about sexual matters. Church counsellors are a safer bet, as they won’t attend your church and are likely to have no barriers when it comes to talking about sexual matters.
6. Recognise that you are most at risk when you are H.A.L.T. – Hungry, Angry, Lonely, Tired
7. Research the Allen Carr Method – PMO EasyWay book download - https://www.pdfhost.net/index.php?Action=Download&File=1be79b10d1b533c2030f2ee2f2e65405
Introduction to the method (applied to smoking in the video, but it is equally applicable to PMO) can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TL2Vh7goJc
Myth Truth
“PMO’ers need willpower to quit” Allen Carr's EasyWay requires no willpower
“PMO relieves stress” PMO increases stress
“PMO helps me to concentrate” PMO impedes concentration
"PMO helps me sleep" PMO worsens the quality of sleep
“PMO relieves boredom” PMO increases boredom
Stress, lack of concentration, sleep deprivation and boredom are, according to the Addiction Cycle above, all triggers for PMO.
The realisation of Allen Carr is that the act of smoking/PMO/drug taking etc. creates the symptoms with which the next cigarette/orgasm/injection etc. relieves. Therefore, the best time to stop is not tomorrow or next week, but rather today. Stop creating symptoms that you will then relieve through PMO.

Strategy

  1. Register using an email
  2. Create a Custom Goal e.g. NoPMO, NoFap etc.
  3. Set the length of the goal e.g. 7, 14, 21 days etc. (above 27 the better)
  4. Set a stake e.g. £50/goal or £5/week
  5. Set a daily reminder on your phone e.g. "stickK - nofap - £5"
  6. Optional: get someone to become your Accountability Partner (AP)
  7. Use the Journal Log to document your progress
  8. When the goal is completed, consider starting a new one, that is much longer
  • Install blockers on internet browsers e.g. Foxfilter, Blocksite, Adult Blocker
  • Leave seductive social media e.g. Instagram, Snapchat, Tumblr, Tinder, etc.
On Streaks:
The success of a streak is not the length but rather the quality. During a streak, you should occupy yourself as much as possible, either in work, studies, outdoors etc.
Isaac Newton; "The way to chastity is not to struggle directly with incontinent thoughts but to avert the thoughts by some imployment, or by reading, or meditating on other things"
  • Never put faith in the length of your streak as pride will follow. "Pride commeth before a fall."
  • Expect relapses early on. The pleasure-centre of the brain takes time to recover.
On Relapsing
  • Pray and ask for forgiveness but appropriate the forgiveness that comes through Christ. Emotion is understandable but don't give way to wallowing in self-pity (this will only allow Satan to gain a foothold). Upon confession, try not to dwell upon the setback again, trusting that God really has forgiven you, as His Word declares He will.
  • Read through Psalm 51 and meditate on its truth. Psalm 51 is one of the penitential psalms and it is traditionally claimed to have been composed by king David as a confession to God after he sexually sinned with Bathsheba.
  • Do not be tempted to think that because you have relapsed that you can do so again; when you get into a damp and stinky trench, you climb out as soon as you can.
  • Do not think too much about the length of the streak: if you can, focus on the general trend of greater control over your sexual impulses, as evidenced through longer and longer streaks.
On nocturnal emissions (wet dreams)
As the length of the streak grows, the chance of a nocturnal emission increases.
I am of the opinion that such an occurrence is not a relapse, as it is involuntary, regardless of whether is was accompanied by a lustful dream or not.
One must be careful not to allow such an occurrence to tempt one to a deliberate relapse. After a few days, the immediate memory of it will pass, setting back on course again. However, if you are not married, and will not be for some time, you will have to learn to live with these happenings.

LONG TERM KNOWLEDGE

To truly stay away from the evils of pornography and masturbation, one needs a deeper understanding of the problem.

1. Meditate on the Western concept of nudity. This may seem an odd remark but I believe this thought may prove of use. In more primitive societies, especially ones that are hot, women tend to not wear many clothes, therefore exposing their legs, arms and breasts. Now, because this was and still is their cultural norm, the men in those societies were and are less stimulated by the images of female nudity, than we are in the West, where the norm is where women cover the bodies, thus creating a taboo out of nudity. Now, I am neither endorsing one or the other, because clothing is often solely linked to the environmental climate in which people live, but I am saying that our Western reaction to nudity is somewhat socially and cultural constructed.
2. Meditate on the loneliness of the act. If this were a normal behaviour, why does one feel uncomfortable doing it in public? Why does one do it often in the dark, away from others? Is it because our subconscious knows that it is wrong? This rule can apply to most things: if you would not be willing to do it in the open, do not do it.
3. Contemplate the evils of the industry. Many people think that the porn industry and the sex trafficking industry are completely separate, however, this is not true. By watching pornography, you are generating demand, through your views, for more underage women to be exploited in horrific ways (note, we acknowledge that not all porn is non-consensual). As Christians, we should run a million miles away from industries that make profit from devaluing any humans, who are ALL made in the image of God, and who all deserve a chance at life, where they don't have to carry sexual guilt and shame around for the rest of their life, not to mention, the disease they could contract.
Additionally, porn can costs childhoods. Studies show a 1-in-14 chance of a child typing in a misspelled URL and stumbling upon a porn site by accident.
4. Consider the owners and producers of hard-core pornography
Have you ever wondered who produces the content that many consume? Have you ever wondered why it is hard to track down the owners of pornography sites?
Below is a list of some not-so-pleasant people who are owners of the top global pornography sites. Investigate and read for yourself if you want, what kind of people they are and whether you want to be under their influence.
Have you ever wondered why it is offered for free?
It is because porn is a "weapon", a tool of perception. By warping minds, sexual dysfunction can split relationships apart and stop men reaching their full potential: stop men turning the tables on the sexualised society.
If it is made free, more people will consume it, and more people will be weakened and not live their best life. Do not believe that these individuals have your best interests at heart. They want to use you, to make themselves rich and famous, regardless if your life is ruined or damaged.
5. How pornography warps our perceptions of intimacy
Peggy Orenstein: “Porn is much more accessible, and at much younger ages. Because there’s so much of it, and because it’s trying to be competitive with itself to get more viewers, it becomes more extreme. It presents an image of sexuality that is about as realistic as pro-wrestling and an image of women and women’s bodies and women’s pleasure that is about as accurate as ‘The Real Housewives’ is to marriage… Everything in porn is a performance, and it’s encouraging girls to see sex as a performance and boys to see girls’ sexuality as a performance.”
Exploitation:
Organisation Findings
International Labor Organization (ILO) 4.5 million people are trapped or forced into sexual exploitation globally.
Thorn In one survey, 63% of underage sex trafficking victims said they had been advertised or sold online.
ILO While only 22% of global trafficking victims are trafficked for sex, sexual exploitation earns 66% of the global profits from human trafficking. The average annual profit generated by each woman in forced sexual servitude ($100,000) is estimated to be six times more than the average profits generated by each trafficking victim worldwide ($21,800)
Rescue:Freedom In 9 countries, 49% of sexually exploited women said that pornography was made of them while they were being sold for sex.
Below are some scientific and scriptural reasons, backed up by evidence, that show pornography to be a menace to our bodies, minds and souls.
Scientific
Reason Evidence
It will lead to escalation in genre and potentially to acting out https://fightthenewdrug.org/why-consuming-porn-is-an-escalating-behavio
It increases social anxiety and weakens your confidence https://www.yourbrainonporn.com/rebooting-porn-use-faqs/is-porn-making-my-social-anxiety-confidence-depression-anxiety-ocd-bipolar-worse/
It will ruin intimacy in marriage https://www.verywellmind.com/is-pornography-destroying-your-marriage-2302509
It can triggeaggravate depression, particularly if the content is traumatic to the viewer https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/blog/inside-porn-addiction/201111/can-pornography-trigger-depression
It increases the concentration of DeltaFosB in the brain, leading to dependency and mental impairment https://www.nhs.uk/news/neurology/watching-porn-associated-with-male-brain-shrinkage/
It may decrease your testosterone levels which could cause erectile dysfunction, reduced bone mass, hair loss etc. https://www.yourbrainonporn.com/rebooting-porn-use-faqs/any-connection-between-orgasm-abstinence-and-testosterone-levels/has-too-much-masturbation-decreased-my-testosterone-levels/ and https://www.healthline.com/health/side-effects-of-low-testosterone
It may cause ‘sex headaches’ https://www.jonbarron.org/article/pornography-headaches
Scriptural
Reason Evidence
It can lead to other sins Romans 1:28-31
Your inheritance in the kingdom of God is at stake Galatians 5:19-21
It will rob you of your peace Psalm 119:165
It will diminish your assurance of faith 2 Cor. 13:5
You sin against your own body 1 Cor. 6:18
You will grieve the Holy Spirit Ephesians 4:30
It will sear your conscience 1 Timothy 4:2

Strategies

1. Cultivate a practice of Spiritual Thoughtfulness
  • Think of your hour of death. Will you be pleased with yourself for doing such actions? Will you want to look back on your life, and wish you had lived a life of obedient faith more?
  • Think of yourself stood before Christ, to receive reward for the deeds done in the body. Are you positively contributing positively towards your treasures in Heaven?
  • Think upon the power of God and the forgiving power of Christ and how greater they are when compared to the power of darkness and Satan
  • Consider the physical and social consequences of such actions
  • Consider the immediate spiritual consequences of such actions
  • Consider that we may be close to the return of Christ and how we should want to receive Him and be received by Him as a holy people
2. Memorise relevant scriptures
  • Romans 8:1
  • 1 Corinthians 6:18
  • 1 Corinthians 6:11
  • John 6:37
  • Hebrews 2:18
3. Exchange lies for truth
Lie Truth
“God is stingy” God is good – Deuteronomy 10:12-13
“Sinful pleasures are filling” Sinful pleasures are fleeting – Hebrews 11:24-26
“People are objects” People are image bearers – Genesis 1:27
“Sexual sin is harmless” Sexual sin is defrauding – 1 Thessalonians 4:3-6
“I can turn back to God whenever I want” You may harden your heart to such a point that you don’t want to turn back – Hebrews 3:13
“My past defines me” Christ’s blood defines you - 1 Corinthians 6:11
“I have no option but to give into temptation” God provides a way of escape – 1 Corinthians 10:13
4. Join online communities that encourage you in your faith
e.g. Facebook groups
5. Make a ‘covenant with your eyes’
  • Job 31:1-4 - 1 “I have made a covenant with my eyes; how then could I gaze at a virgin? 2 What would be my portion from God above and my heritage from the Almighty on high? 3 Is not calamity for the unrighteous, and disaster for the workers of iniquity? 4 Does not he see my ways and number all my steps?
6. Make a practice of prayer and confession
  • Relationship with Christ, is developed and cultivated through prayer and confession. Although Christ has forgiven every sin at the Cross, we still need to confess our sins before Him (1 John 1:9). You will feel so much better after giving the burden of sin to Christ.
7. Individuals who struggled with lust but gained victory:

Summary

  • If one is to live, one should live a peaceful and clean life
  • Sex is not our god, but rather we serve the creator God, I AM
  • One is not alone in this struggle, and your struggle with sin is a good sign
  • We are in the midst of a cultural war, that started probably before we were born. And this cultural war is really the earthly manifestation of a battle in the heavenlies.
  • Willpower is not required to defeat this "learned habit". Once one realises that relapse creates the symptoms for the next relapse to "relieve", one realises the game and trick that has been played on them, and can then gain victory.
  • Hunger, anger, loneliness and fatigue are possible vulnerable states.
  • NEVER place pride in one's streak.
  • Recall the evil of the industry. Does one want to contribute towards this?
  • Recall the Addiction Cycle. Recognise the reality of this.
  • Recall the health consequences, mental and physical: depression, lower self-esteem, guilt, escalation in content, loss of intimacy, loss of peace, diminishing of faith etc.
  • Exchange lies for truth, using scripture as a standard.
  • Use StickK and ALWAYS put a money stake up. If money is used, you are more likely to achieve your goal.
  • Recognise that many believers in the past struggled with such lust, overcame it, and became famous believers, with a close relationship with God.
  • Believe Christ really is the bread of life: “whoever believes has eternal life. I am the bread of life” (John 6:47-48).

Concluding Quotes:

"Sex was designed by God to be linked to procreation and marriage. It was not meant to be a full-time obsession nor hobby."

"Sex is the mysticism of materialism and the only possible religion in a materialistic society" Malcolm Muggeridge

"If God is dead, somebody is going to have to take his place. It will be megalomania or erotomania, the drive for power or the drive for pleasure, the clenched fist, or the phallus, Hitler or Hugh Hefner." Malcolm Muggeridge

Pornography. Literally, the writing of harlots; the depiction of erotic behaviour intended to cause sexual excitement. Since sex is of almost universal interest, allusions to it are legitimate and necessary if dramatic or literary descriptions of human life are to be truthful or educative; but an enormous market exists for those who exploit sex for gain. Psychologically, the over-stimulation of imagination by sexual images renders the whole personality oversexed by disproportionately concentrating thought and desire, often to the point of pornographic addiction; it coarsens feelings and attitudes toward the other sex as tools for sexual indulgence, unrefined by affection, tenderness, or respect; it inverts the sex drive into sterile, self-absorbed, physical pleasure alone - "mental masturbation"; and because over-stimulation brings diminishing effects, it leads readily to mental indulgence in increasingly coarser, sadistic perversions - "hardcore" pornography.
Socially, the problems are protection of the immature and unstable; the danger that the emotions stimulated may erupt in antisocial sexual aggressiveness; the tendency to devalue women (mainly) and marriage; and the effect of sensualist displays and opportunities on the whole tone of society. Legally, suppression of "obscenely offensive" materials has been difficult to enforce because of variable public taste and the unanswerable statement, "The offensiveness is all in the viewer's mind".
Christians acknowledge the obligation to preserve purity of mind and heart. Jesus condemned the lustful look as equivalent to adultery, and declared the only defilement was that which comes from within (Matt. 5:28; Mark 7:20). The NT abounds in warnings concerning lust of the flesh, lust of the eyes, concupiscence, uncleanness, following the inclination to sensuality, and "the cravings of our sinful nature" (Eph. 2:3) on the principle that as we think, so we are. The Christian response to pornography is: "Clothe yourselves with the Lord Jesus Christ, and do not think about how to gratify the desires of the sinful nature. ... Whatever is pure, whatever is lovely, whatever is admirable - if anything is excellent or praiseworthy-think about such things". The Concise Evangelical Dictionary of Theology, R. E. O. White on Pornography
submitted by southernenglishbede to ChristianManliness [link] [comments]

How to Make a ______ Build: a guide to not using guides

Most build advice I see ranges from ungeneralized to bad, and most questions regarding builds aren't very well articulated. So in light of that, here's a general guide on how to make an optimal build all by yourself, starting from how stat pages work and then backtracking all the way to starting class selection.

DEFENSE, DAMAGE, AND SPLIT DAMAGE:

A weapon's attack rating (AR) is essentially the amount of damage it would do to an enemy with zero defense. Meanwhile, defense stats are essentially the amount of damage you can deduct from something with infinite damage. However, you'll notice that a 200 AR weapon still deals nonzero damage to people with 200 defense. This is because defense deducts less damage against lower amounts of AR (see here/here). It's a safeguard against achieving invincibility. But as you can see, while it deducts less actual damage, it will still deduct proportionally more damage against smaller attacks. For example, while 350 defense might remove up to 350 damage from 1000 AR and only 200 damage from 250 (a larger number in the first case), 350 is only 35% of 1000, whereas 200 is a whole 80% of 250.
To understand why the second scenario is a bigger deal, try counting out the actual swings. The 1000 damage weapon would have done 2000 damage in two attacks, but because of defense, it actually has to swing three times to deal just 1950, if not another time to finish the job. You've gone from two attacks to three or four. But with the smaller 250 damage weapon, you originally could deal 2000 damage in eight pokes; by lowering the damage to just 50, you go from eight pokes to a whole FORTY. Pitting those setups against each other, the large build originally needed to land an attack every four pokes or so to keep pace, but once defenses come into play, it can instead afford to only land a blow every ten pokes and still beat the smaller weapon. Maybe it loses more damage per swing, but it's losing much less damage per fight since it didn't use as many swings to begin with.
For weapons which deal multiple damage types at once this effect is very important, because the types are not added together; they're like separate attacks. If you have 250 physical, 250 magic, 250 fire, and 250 lightning AR all on one weapon, that's like four little 250 AR attacks, not a single big 1000 AR one. Per the first paragraph's numbers, you're going to lose 80% of each quarter—which adds up to 80% of the whole—instead of just 35%, meaning that while a pure 1000 AR might deal 650 damage, a four-way cosmopolitan 1000 AR would only get you 200 damage on the same swing. Even just 500 pure AR is probably better than that. So, when the giant blacksmith offers to split your AR into physical and lightning for a higher total, don't be surprised if your damage output actually goes down: two-way split weapons usually only deal about three-quarters what their total AR suggests.
Bear in mind that attack modifiers will multiply your attacks before they hit defenses though, not after. Take dark bead as an example; it fires seven separate projectiles that're split into two damage types each: physical and magic. So, that's a whopping fourteen way split. Using just the ivory catalyst, it'll only deal 546 damage to Quelaag, but once you multiply that by 1.2 with bellowing dragoncrest, 1.2 with the dusk crown, 1.4 with power within and 1.5 with the red tearstone for a net 302.4% total AR, you'll deal 3598 damage instead, which is far more than the 302.4% mod would suggest: it's instead 659%, all because you're climbing out of the defense curve. Backstabs, ripostes, and even strong attacks in some cases can modify your damage enough to make split options better, hence the popularity of the chaos rapier etc.
See here for footage of a split weapon dealing less on R1 despite having higher AR, as well as more on R2 despite having the weaker R1. This roughly proves this is how defenses work, as well as where modifiers come into play.
As a final note, shields don't work like defenses do; they just remove a percent of the incoming damage. A dark hand will remove 80% of the incoming damage no matter what type it is or how many types it is, except for stamina damage, which it removes only 30% of via its stability. 100 in stability or defense is essentially immunity to the given type.

WHAT TO LEVEL:

"UHHH WHAT STAT DO I LEVEL FOR THIS?"
Sit down at the bonfire (or soulsplanner).
Go to the level up menu (or soulsplanner).
See that number beside the text "R Weapon 1"? That's total AR of your first righthanded weapon.
You can raise it by leveling strength, dexterity, intelligence, or faith.
You can check each stat's benefits individually by ticking the stat upwards, looking at the AR, and then ticking it back down. You can even check twohanded damage by twohanding your weapon before sitting down at the bonfire. Try and check levels two at a time while doing this though; weapons receive an extra 50% more levels of strength while twohanded, which gets rounded down, so only on every even numbered level of strength will get you a bonus level.
Now with weapons that have C/D or C/E ranks in stdex scaling, you'll reach 27 strength and then the stat you choose after will come down to personal onehand/twohand preference. With weapons like Grant, you might not want to onehand at all. But beyond that, every weapon pretty much has one ideal damage path. C/C weapons will expect you to hit 20 strength, then 20 dex, then 26 strength, and then reach 27/40 for the fastest AR gain. And pretty much everything else... just expects you to level one stat. Pretty simple.
That's four stats out of the way, but consider the following: if I gave you the option to deal double the damage, or have double the health, which would be better?
If player 1 picks damage and player 2 picks health, then first player will deal damage twice as fast, but they'll also need to deal twice as much to win. So, it cancels out; you're just dividing one player's damage per second by the other player's health per life, so if when put the same factor on each side, nothing in the matchup changes. In other words, a bonus of X% more HP is generally as good as X% more damage.
That means you can compare vitality to the four offensive stats by just converting both of their gains into percents. Tick the stat upwards, see how much it increased, divide by the original, and you've got your % gain. Or, if you'll allow me to generalize for you:
These are AR gains though, and not damage gains. That makes them underestimates/minimums. With a small enough attack against a high enough defense, the increase in real damage might even be twice what these suggest, tops. However, when you look at health...
YIKES. And those first 30 levels get bigger as you go too, further incentivizing the climb. Once they peak at 30, they'll drop back down and decline; the next 20 will then give you 36% more HP, or just the first 10 of them will give you a 20% boost. To compare, a weapon with a B in strength is going to gain around 24% AR going from 16 to 26 while twohanded. Onehanded it's 16%, assuming onehanding is an option.
Besides AR gains being an underestimate, there are a couple of other issues to this kind of reasoning though. The blue and red tearstone rings, for example, both provide 50% boosts, one to defense and the other attack. This might make them sound equal (or even make blue sound better, since removing 50% of 150% drops you to just 75), but the rings don't actually work until you're at 20% health or less; by that point, the blue tearstone probably won't save you from another hit, whereas with the red tearstone ring you might land multiple or kill someone a hit earlier. If the red tearstone only activated when your opponent were at 20% HP then the comparison would hold, because then they'd both run into the same overkill problem. But the player whose damage intake is being changed isn't the same as the one who needs to be at 20% in the case of the red tearstone's, making it much better despite looking the same.
There are also niche cases like power within, which drains 1% of your health per second for 100 seconds. If you can get your health low enough, you can lower this drain enough to have sanctus's regeneration counteract it, allowing you to hang out in the red tearstone's range without dying after 20 seconds like usual. And much like how regen rates won't scale up or down with vitality, the poison and toxic statuses won't scale with your weapon damage either; bleed actually scales with the target's max health, making vitality useless as a counter. More importantly, all of the healing options that scale with HP (humanities, divine blessings, anything that maxes health out) aren't available to invaders in the remastered version of the game; you only get estus flasks, which heal 800 HP tops with no vitality scaling. If you check the HP gain going from 10 to 30 vitality again, but add an 800 to the denominator, the 94% HP boost up to 30 vitality becomes just 44% or so. And that's just with one flask.
The problem is you're not going to heal at all if you die in a single 1000+ damage chaos rapier backstab. Not to mention we ignored alternatives like the chaos/lightning infusions entirely when looking at the AR gains earlier. While claymore gains 32% more AR by slapping 20 levels on it (which might manifest as 64% more damage for all I know), that's just the % gain from a standard 16/10 claymore. You aren't going to use standard at 16/10; you're going to use chaos, because it gives you a bunch of damage for no strength or dex at all. Standard might even be worse at 26/20, despite chaos's lack of scaling:
20 levels and your onehanded strong attack isn't even dealing more damage. Even with 20% more damage from twohanding and 20% more damage from counterhit (compared to chaos's mere ~8% counterhit, since it's mostly fire), chaos is still dealing 75% of the damage. And that was the lowest it ever got: backstabs, ripostes, plunging attacks and, well, jumping attacks, all dealt MORE damage with chaos, plus you get chip damage through 100% physical block shields. But even if we assume it's just 75% all the time, a 30 vitality build with those 20 points in offense will not even have 75% of the health a 50 vit chaos build has anyways, so without items you're better off with 50/16/10 than 30/26/20.
Now, I would guess that Havel's defenses are a little unfairly biased against physical damage. And, if you can manage to sip two estus flasks unharmed, the health difference between the chaos and standard setups isn't so terrible anymore—hence why PvE players always neglect vit. You also can't put resin on chaos weapons. But the fact that this is even a question means (TL;DR):
  1. Get vitality in the 30's before considering offense (unless you're making a min health powermode build).
  2. Don't level in offense unless you plan to put over 20 levels towards one damage type (or just hit 27 strength with a B scaling weapon or greater).
This holds up for spell damage as well. To actually see the AR of a spell, you'll need to use soulsplanner; the AR on the stat page is just for when you literally hit people with your spelltool. While you can't chaos infuse a spelltool, the ivory catalyst and thorolund talisman are still the same sort of thing; for no investment at all they'll have nearly the same amount of damage as whatever the next best tool would at 27 int or faith, respectively. Plus, the ivory catalyst grants a little extra physical damage to dark sorceries (it matches that of a 19 dex tin banishment catalyst, but compared to intelligence it's only worth maybe 2 levels). The pyromancy flame doesn't scale with anything at all, or even have an alternative. The 35th through 45th levels of dexterity will increase your casting speed with attack spells though, which is significant enough to make kick-into-blackflame a true combo, but your damage is nonscaling whether you like it or not.
The remaining stats to discuss are attunement, endurance, and resistance:
  1. Attunement isn't very comparable to anything. Going for 23 attunement with 14 faith for six casts of great heal excerpt is a level more expensive than just going for 12 attunement and 24 faith for two copies (six casts) of great heal though, and it's less versatile since you have less faith to use for weapons and because the following attunement slots will cost more. But, you'll never really want that many casts of great heal, so it's not a great measure. The levels 10, 12, 14, 16, 19, 23, 28, 34, 41 and 50 are the only ones which grant slots.
  2. Endurance does a lot of things. The extra equipload it grants can be used for heavier armor, which makes it seemingly comparable to vitality. At low levels, the defense from heavy armor can make you seemingly invincible. But, hornet ring chaos rapier backstabs will do at least 900 damage either way, and if you're actually leveling the stat to try lightrolling with heavy armor, you won't be low level anymore anyways. It's used more for stamina and for gaining poise from heavy armor instead. Some of the higher, heavier poise setups people use actually have a little less defense than the lower ones: the lightest way to hit 61 poise with an open headslot has less physical defense than the same for 36 and 32 poise. So, much like attunement, endurance is a rather apples-to-oranges stat. It stops granting stamina at level 40 but is still used for equipload beyond that point.
  3. Resistance does virtually nothing, never level it. The only meaningful change is that you become harder to poison. It's so terrible that the levels of resistance each class starts out with don't even count as real levels: if you put all your stats to the maximum of 99, classes that started with more resistance will have a lower level in total, since the early levels don't count. They're free! Free pennies, that is. Don't spend a dime on them.
As a final note, a weapon weight's is linearly related to its strength requirement, ignoring bows and things of the like. So, if you're trying to pick between making a great scythe build and an uchigatana build: surprise! They're the same build. Same weight, same strength. Same goes for the chaos blade with any 16 strength dexterity weapon, such as the lifehunt scythe, silver knight weapons, and the flamberge if you don't mind the lack of reach it has compared to the claymore. You can also trade the weight over to your left hand and use a 16 strength shield like the black knight shield or eagle shield alongside an estoc or balder side sword, which themselves match the weight of crest shields and things of the like that can be used with the heavier weapons. Knowing this can help you make some really versatile setups: check the wikidot page for strength for a nice organized list.

WHAT TO EQUIP:

"UHHH WHAT'S THE BEST WEAPON IN THE GAME?"
It would be rather unfun of me to just tell you what weapons and spells are meta, but armor and rings are pretty passive/quantitative, so I'll go over those:
...and those are probably the four most stand-out armor pieces in the game. Honorable mention goes out to the gargoyle helm, which has a great poise to weight ratio but is, unfortunately, a helmet and unable to compete with MoM past earlygame. Another honorable mention goes out to the set of thorns: the damage they deal while rolling into someone might seem pitiful, but scratching someone can disrupt their backstab attempts despite not flinching them, just due to how the netcode works. Technically the legs have the best effect of all since they also add damage to kicks, but they aren't worth using over the hollow soldier waistcloth, so generally the gauntlets see more use despite being identical otherwise.
POISE is something I've mentioned quite a bit but haven't explained. How it works is each attack has an amount of poise drain; if you still have more than zero poise after being hit, then the attack won't flinch you. After about four seconds, your poise will reset. The notable breakpoints are:
The lightest ways to hit these poisebreaks with an open headslot for mothechild/dusk are:
Except, the giants setup isn't really the lightest. But at endgame level, it'll reduce incoming physical damage by around 15% compared to the previous combination. However, as a lightroller with only the ring of favor on, it takes another 35 levels of endurance to accommodate the extra 10.5 units of weight it has.
I'd also like to note that the difference in weight between the elite and regular knight chest is the same as the difference in weight between the mother mask and crown of dusk; if you're putting dusk on, you can change your knight chest out for an elite knight chest for the same poise, a little extra defense, and minimal change to your appearance. Not that it makes much of a difference.
And last, for rings, I'm gonna list one ring:
RING OF FAVOR AND PROTECTION is generally a better ring than Havel's ring, for reasons similar to why mask of the mother is better than father. Equipping Havel's and leveling vitality is almost always worse than equipping favor to compensate with endurance. Even in scenarios where Havel's saves a few levels at matched health and equipload, favor will give you significantly more stamina. At 50 vitality, Havel's will take another 35 levels to match favor's health, while at 40 endurance favor will only need 20 more to match Havel's equipload, a net savings of 15 levels and with the 20% extra stamina bonus too. You'll have even more if Havel's is beneath the stamina cap.
There is the fact that favor breaks upon removal, but Havel's ring can't be removed without messing up your roll anyways, so this is moot; switching from Havel's to the dark wood grain ring won't even work unless you rearrange your other equipment as well. It's inadvisable to wear favor and Havel's together as well, as by occupying your last ringslot, you're basically picking Havel's over the option to use any other ring in the game on the fly. The wolf ring, while sometimes less efficient, is a much more flexible way to swap poise onto your character as needed.
None of this is to say you should always use the ring of favor, but the only time I can think of not to is stacking red tearstone with another damage ring like bellowing, leo or hornet on what's likely a low HP powermode build. Something like bellowing's 20% damage increase might sound no better than favor's 20% bonus to health, but with how defenses work, bellowing can provide over a 40% increase to actual damage in the right context (which is, you guessed it: red tearstone powermode caster).

HOW TO START:

Boot up the game.
Spend two and a half hours making a face.
Delete it and mash the random button.
And then, you have to pick a starting class.
Equipment and starting gift aren't really important since you can find all of that stuff anyways, although the master key will let you sequence break to get some stuff early/with fewer bosses slain. All that really matters is your stat allocation.
Your matchmaking with other players is dependent on your total level, or soul level (SL). So, if your stat allocation wastes a bunch of points on a stat you aren't using, then the players you fight against are effectively going to be that many points higher than you, on average. But, if a stat you are using is too low at the start, that's fine; you can just level it up. Also, the levels of resistance your starting class comes with won't count towards your SL for whatever reason (probably because they're bad). You can see that the pyromancer and cleric have the same amount of starting levels, but the pyro is SL 1 while the cleric is SL 2 because it had one less level in resistance. This holds true for all classes. With that all in mind, the best classes are:
Those, usually, are your best bets. The warrior can appear to tie the bandit class in some cases, but the bandit's 8/10 int/faith distribution can provide a little more magic defense than warrior's 9/9 for some reason. At most, 9 intelligence will get you a smidgen more damage with the titanite catch pole or stone greatsword, the former of which is terrible (outright worse than a chaos halberd even at 40 intelligence AND dex) and the latter of which only has an E in int (but a rather nice twohanded R2). Levels 10 and under also add less AR for some reason. If you want to minimize vitality, there's also the sorcerer, which also comes with minimal resistance if you'd like to poison yourself into red tearstone range too.
As far as specifics go, finalizing your level on a multiple of 10 is a popular thing to do. You can invade up to 20 levels higher than your own and summon 10 levels in either direction, plus 10% of your own level in either direction which gets rounded in; this means multiples of 10 give you the most matchmaking width per level of your own. The covenant rings will go 20 levels plus 20% downward, so multiples of 5 are good for them; every multiple of 25 will reach down to a multiple 10 (or 20, specifically). Landing on an odd one can help reduce your 10% upward range too if you like.
For competition, level 125 is generally considered best. It allows you to get 50 vitality and 40 endurance with either 40 strength and 40 dex, or 40 dex, 30 faith, and four attunement slots. These builds suffer beneath this level, and beneath 110 or so magic and dexterity pyros start to suffer as well. You'll only be left with chaos weapons beneath SL 70. You're better off going to 125 if you want diversity. And, in the original game, 125 also allowed you to invade level 50's with the blue eye orb, which is perfect for the darkmoon covenant area. 125's can also get infected by SL 150 gravelords, which isn't really a pro, but, now you know.
The remastered edition will also match you based on weapon upgrade level, but the ranges are pretty generous. +5 can still match with 0, +11 can still match with 5, and +15 can match with 9. You probably want to have +11 at level 30, +13 at level 40, and +15 at level 50 or so. You need to keep it at +5 if you want to invade +0 players though, so don't pick up mimic weapons if that's your goal. They count as +10. And unique weapons—any that upgrade with twinkling or demon titanite, or dragon scales—will start at 5 and go up two per level instead; this includes the dark hand Kaathe will stick into your inventory before you get the red eye orb from him. Unique shields typically start at 0 and go up 3 per level otherwise though: check the wikidot.
Also see here/here for typical soul levels by area, or the wikidot. I'd only add that darkroot has some serious variance, but 50 for Anor Londo and 30 for the depths is pretty normal. Something like 60 will work fine in Anor Londo if you don't want to invade outside though. From there, the game gets pretty split up.
submitted by TheDamnDaimyo to darksouls [link] [comments]

How to Calculate Football Square Odds : Algebra, Geometry & Other Math Tips Guide to Reading Betting Odds: What they Mean & How to Use Them To Tell the Truth - Gambling odds expert; Burlesque dancer (Apr 7, 1960) PGA Tour Betting Odds & Picks - The Memorial Tournament How To Bet On Boxing & win.

Total pool: $900 Amount bet on horse No. 1: $300 Take amount: 15 percent $900 minus 15 percent equals $765 $765 minus $300 equals $465 $465 divided by $300 equals $1.55 Round this amount off to $1.50 for breakage and you get odds of 1.5-1 or 3-2, as it would normally be written, which yields a payoff of $5 on a wager of $2. For example, at -150, Joe Biden’s implied probability to win the 2020 election would be 60.00 percent and President Trump’s at +135 odds would be 42.55 percent. Trump had -180 odds, or 64.29 percent implied probability, to win the election during the last week of February. Based on the odds of -110 for a straight football or basketball bet a handicapper only need to be right 52.38 percent of the time to break even however many sports bettors cannot achieve that percentage of winning over the long run. The chart below shows the break-even points for the various odds you will encounter when you make a bet on the For example, the exact mathematical equivalent of decimal odds 30 is fractional odds 29/1. However 29/1 is not used in betting markets, instead 30/1 is used, so that is what appears in this converter. For an explanation of the odds types on this table see decimal, fractional and American odds. Calvillo is seeing 64 percent of tickets and a hefty 86 percent of money bet on the main event. UPDATE 3 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Alan Berg, senior oddsmaker for Caesars sportsbooks, said sharp bets are

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How to Calculate Football Square Odds : Algebra, Geometry & Other Math Tips

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