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The future of the NFL and the Dolphins.
The future of the NFL and the Dolphins. Looks very troubled. Both the near future and far future impact of Covid-19 does not look good. In the near future risking player lives and future out breaks by allowing fans in stadiums, in order to make an immediate buck, are risky bets. The latter more so than the former. The long term impact of either of those bets failing would probably not be good. The other side of those bets also does not look great. Who knows when restaurants and plane travel will ever get back to normal. It took years for travel to recover after 9/11. Most fans on this forum are probably more passionate than the average fan. But casual fans exist. If they become accustomed to doing something different on Sunday, if football is completely cancelled, some of them might not come back on Sunday when football returns. It is lose lose. Once upon a time people told me housing prices and internet stocks would always increase in value. That was stupid and wrong. Football is America's sport, but it wasn't always, and it does not have to as popular in the future as it is now. Ratings have still not recovered too pre Kaepernick levels. The NFL looking to appease the woke mob is another risky bet. (And it is craven appeasement these people were wrongly fining players for kneeling during the anthem a few years ago.) You might think anyone who stops watching football because of that appeasement is an inbred, knuckle dragging, white supremacist, moron, but that will not make them watch football. Ultimately, not necessarily immediately, but ultimately revenue and salary cap are determined in large part by ratings. Any team making long term bets on an ever rising salary cap against this back drop will be doing it wrong. That includes our Dolphins.
A Brief History of the Glazer's Failing Ownership of United, and Why the Notion that They Are Not to Blame for the Club's Decline is Beyond the Pale (x-Post from r/soccer)
I posted the following comment in a thread on soccer yesterday, and one of your lads kindly asked me to post it here for the United community to read. First though, a confession: I'm a Liverpool fan (*vinyl screech*). Now, at this point I'm not going to say that "I come in peace" or other such bollocks, nor am I here to gloat at your club's current misfortunes. I wrote this comment because for me this goes far deeper than football rivalries or petty schadenfreude. Manchester United is a proud and historic British institution, and the way that it has been shamelessly exploited, mismanaged and bled dry by the the current regime is a national disgrace that for me exemplifies a lot of what is going wrong with football and in fact this country as a whole at the moment. What's equally galling to me is that there are many people here on reddit and other forums who, either through ignorance of the facts or misplaced allegiances, still defend the Glazers for it. As a Liverpool fan I can relate better than most. Like the Glazers, our previous owners Hicks & Gillett bought our club in the mid 2000s with leverage and then unceremoniously dumped the debt onto the club. A decade ago we were an inch away from administration and ruin until John Henry and FSG saved our arses. If you think that can't happen to your club too, then you've not been properly paying attention. So, without freddy adu, here is a no-bullshit guide to the history of the Glazer ownership saga, warts and all... I see a lot of people defending the Glazers on reddit lately, and usually with the same breath mocking Man Utd fans in a derisive tone for being fickle. "Look how much money they've spent", they'll say, or maybe point to patsy Woodward for orchestrating the on-field shambles. For those of us who have been around long enough to witness the slow-motion train wreck that has been the Glazer's tenure from the beginning however, it has been crystal clear for some time that the Glazers are the authors of their own (or rather the club's) misfortune. For those who are OTL or maybe think the Glazers have done nothing wrong, I'd like to regale you all with a tale of the greatest heist in football history. Like a bad crime novella, it involves intrigue, dirty business practices and, perhaps most bizarrely all, a bucket load of horse cum. First things first though, dear readers, let me reassure you all that this is not a knee-jerk reaction by United fans to their team's current atrocious form, nor is it born of envy as a consequence of the brilliant resurgency of their noisy neighbours in Manchester and Merseyside (heh). In fact, these protests have been going on quietly behind the scenes ever since the Glazers first took over the reigns of the club 15 years ago... Let us go back in time now to the EPL at the turn of this century. Manchester United, guided by the savant-like managerial talents of Alex Ferguson, were dominating English football like never before. A decade of almost unparalleled success on the field had elevated United to the pinnacle of British football, both in fan popularity and, more importantly for our story, financially. The club had built a solid international reputation throughout the 90s as a pioneer of the commercial aspect of the game. As an institution they were THE benchmark that all other clubs in Europe measured themselves by. They were the first footy club in Europe (maybe the world) to become publicly listed on a stock exchange, and by the early 2000s had a market capitalisation on the London Stock Exchange of around £750 million, making it by far the most valuable club in world football. They were a model club in every sense, posting annual profits of upwards of £30m which was faithfully pumped back into Ferguson's squad every summer. The post-9/11 world was in some senses a bleak and uncertain time to live in, but what seemed a sure bet to many of us was that Manchester United would continue to be the richest and therefore most successful team in England for evermore. After all, what was there to stop them? Enter the Glazer family, proprietors of a Florida NFL franchise and a failing shopping mall empire. Beginning in the early 2000s, the reclusive head of the family, Malcolm Glazer, began quietly but diligently acquiring shares in Manchester United. Once he had reached 30% ownership, Glazer senior was obliged by stock exchange rules to make an offer for the remaining shares, which no doubt had been his plan all along. The United board led by CEO David Gill were at first resistant to Glazer's attempt at a hostile takeover and rebuffed his advances, making stern recommendations to the shareholders to reject the offer. Of particular interest to keen observers were the positions of two of the major shareholders at the time, Irish racehorse breeders John Magnier and J. P. McManus, who together owned around 30% of the shares. In order to reach 75% ownership and force through a total buyout of the club, the Glazers would need to convince the Irish investors to sell their shares at some point. As fate would have it though, Ferguson had recently fallen out in spectacular fashion with Magnier and McManus over the stud rights of a valuable racehorse, the legendary Rock of Gibraltar, which they had gifted to him for his service to the club. The whole thing inevitably ended in court, and now the manager of Manchester United was in the awkward position of being at loggerheads with two of the club's major shareholders. Whether or not this affair was the catalyst, Magnier and McManus soon decided to go against the board's recommendation and sold their shares to the Glazers. Within weeks, the takeover was complete and the Americans were now in control of the richest and best-run club in world football. It soon emerged, however, that the Glazers had borrowed around £750 million (the full value of the club) in order to buy it, and immediately upon completing the takeover had passed this debt burden onto the club. Manchester United had until that point been completely debt-free and possessed the financial muscle to outspend any club in England and probably the world. Now, under the new ownership, they were hamstrung by a yearly interest bill of around £70m against earnings of £250m, which could only result in stifling the club's ability to compete in the post-Abramovich transfer market. Understandably, many fans were apoplectic at these developments, and demonstrations took place at the last minute to try to stop the deal happening. Famously, the Glazers even required a police escort at their first appearance at Old Trafford, such was the public's disdain. The fans' concerns quickly proved to be well founded, as despite continued success under Ferguson, expenditure on players was sporadic. Fergie famously lamented that there was "no value in the market", but wiser heads understood that the budget was being constrained by the Glazers. More worryingly for United's finances, however, was that the debt wasn't going down, but rather UP. The Glazers had borrowed via a high interest "PIK loan", which stood at almost 20% APR. All of a sudden, Manchester United, arguably the biggest club in the world, was in deep financial distress. There was even talk of selling the stadium and training ground in order to lighten the albatross of debt hanging around the club's neck. In the end, the Glazers fortuitously managed to refinance the debt by first issuing bonds at a low 5% yield and then listed the club on the NY stock exchange, selling 10% of their shares. The club was now out of immediate danger, but the bulk of the debt remained. According to the latest financial results, United spent £20m on interest payments last year and remain around £400m in the red. To date, the club has spent in excess of £1 billion on servicing this debt. Today, thanks mostly to the boom in EPL television rights and the efforts of Woodward in cannily exploiting the commercial opportunities afforded by a vast global fanbase, the club is in sound financial health (for the time being at least) and the debt level is sustainable. However, they certainly rode their luck in the early years and selfishly placed the club in an extremely perilous financial position. During the first eight years of their ownership, the club continued to succeed on the pitch despite the Glazers, not because of them. Regardless of the relative lack of investment in the squad throughout this period, United overachieved thanks simply to the brilliance of Ferguson. But since the great man retired in 2013, the Glazers have been badly exposed as having no obvious talent or understanding of football matters by a never-ending chain of bad decisions. As if to add insult to injury, they draw in excess of £30m in dividends and salaries for themselves from the budget each year. The club's fortunes on the pitch are in a tailspin after the last seven years of mismanagement, and yet the Glazers continue to reward themselves for it most handsomely. And for those of you who still point to the lavish spending spree that United has embarked on in recent seasons, know this: not a PENNY of it has come from the pockets of the Glazer family - it has been entirely self-generated by the club's revenues. In summary then, Manchester United fans' ire is not simply down to poor form on the pitch, but rather the way in which the Glazers bought the club in 2005 with bad debt and the gross mismanagement of it ever since. They relied on the genius of Ferguson for too long and completely bungled his succession. They have proven not only to be poor stewards of the club time after time, but have also badly crippled its finances for decades to come with unnecessary debt. In my opinion, aside from the Munich disaster, the Glazers' parasitic tenure has been the biggest misfortune to ever befall Manchester United.
Type Me Questionnaire • How old are you? What's your gender? Give us a general description of yourself. I’m a 21 year old male.
• Is there a medical diagnosis that may impact your mental stability somehow? Nope
• Describe your upbringing. Did it have any kind of religious or structured influence? How did you respond to it? There was no structured influence in my life growing up. My dad was a pseudo gangster and petty drug dealer while my mom spent most of her time smoking weed. They also fought a lot and would ask the children to take their sides. I learned how to ride the middle so that neither one could be angry with me.
• What do you do as a job or as a career (if you have one)? Do you like it? Why or why not? I’m currently doing summer sales but I make music normally. I’m doing Summer Sales because it can give me a nice cushion of money to sit on while I’m pursuing music with everything I have. I want to do music so I can have great influence over the minds of people and culture.
• If you had to spend an entire weekend by yourself, how would you feel? Would you feel lonely or refreshed? Wouldn’t actually mind it too much. As long as I could still call all of my good friends and family, I’d be pretty relaxed. Otherwise, I would feel kind of empty by myself.
• What kinds of activities do you prefer? Do you like, and are you good at sports? Do you enjoy any other outdoor or indoor activities? I like discussing people’s personal lives and gossip a bunch. Other than that, I like shopping, video games, music, reading, writing, and debating hot button topics. If I’m doing a sport, I prefer an outdoor sport like American Football but MMA is also awesome to do. I do run everyday but it’s not my favorite thing.
• How curious are you? Do you have more ideas then you can execute? What are your curiosities about? What are your ideas about - is it environmental or conceptual, and can you please elaborate? I’m really curious. I hate not knowing things or feeling like I’m out of the loop on anything. I may even feign knowledge until I can piece together what’s going on and act on that. I don’t have more ideas than I can execute, I totally can get them done but not all at once. My ideas are just for influencing people and gaining status so that I can get what I want from the world around me. I get ideas on what and how to say something so that people will see my perspective on things. I also get ideas on how I can apply their talents to achieve my goals and bring out the best version of themselves.
• Would you enjoy taking on a leadership position? Do you think you would be good at it? What would your leadership style be? I have wanted a leadership position for as long as I can remember. I think that I would excel at it. My leadership style would be me giving people a concept and allowing them to figure out how to create it themselves. I don’t care how it’s done, just as long as it’s done without bringing bad attention.
• Are you coordinated? Why do you feel as if you are or are not? Do you enjoy working with your hands in some form? Describe your activity? If I really focus, then I can box and play sports with the best of them. If I’m relaxed, I’ll probably trip on cracks and run into a low hanging light.
• Are you artistic? If yes, describe your art? If you are not particular artistic but can appreciate art please likewise describe what forums of art you enjoy. Please explain your answer. Art is one of the things I am most passionate about. My art is all made with the intention of leaving a lingering feeling within other people. I want people to come to me for emotional and mental support. I can create whatever art is needed to influence my target audience. No matter genre or theme.
• What's your opinion about the past, present, and future? How do you deal with them? Past affects the present which create the future. I learn from past mistakes of myself and those around me so that I can shape my future the way I need it to be.
• How do you act when others request your help to do something (anything)? If you would decide to help them, why would you do so? Sure, it’s a chance to get on their good side. Help people band then they feel connected to you, even if only slightly.
• Do you need logical consistency in your life? Not in the sense of my life reading like a straightforward story. I need logical consistency to keep myself grounded and not look like a hypocrite though.
• How important is efficiency and productivity to you? Even though I want to say I value those highly, I tend to gravitate towards whatever is the most poetic way of getting things done. For example, I leave jobs a lot because a big part of me believes that it’s cooler when an artist bets like everything on succeeding in their craft rather than pursuing it as a hobby.
• Do you control others, even if indirectly? How and why do you do that? All the time. I generally influence people emotionally so that they can help me achieve an outcome I want. I don’t do it on purpose all the time but it definitely eventually starts to happen once I wanna do something. I can use public opinion to support my statements whether my statements were actually backed by other people.
• What are your hobbies? Why do you like them? Listed them already. MMA, singing, writing, fashion, rapping, reading, debating, studying history, and self improvement. Other things I could list but those are the main ones. I like things that make me stand out from the rest of the crowd around me. All together, I am hoping to create a unique blend.
• What is your learning style? What kind of learning environments do you struggle with most? Why do you like/struggle with these learning styles? Do you prefer classes involving memorization, logic, creativity, or your physical senses? I learn best when I can read up everything on a subject and then be free to improvise off of it on my own. I don’t learn well with other people around because I’m too focused on their reactions to what I’m doing. I prefer classes involving creativity, memorization, and physical senses. Math and science sucked so I guess I’m not too much of a fan of logic which is weird to say.
• How good are you at strategizing? Do you easily break up projects into manageable tasks? Or do you have a tendency to wing projects and improvise as you go? I do plan out most of my projects and have a process that I go through. It just very easily devolves into improv because it depends on how I’m feeling. So I’ll definitely wing things much better than I plan them out.
• What are your aspirations in life, professionally and personally? To be a person that is never forgotten in his industry and most of all, the world. I want people to feel understood and connected with me after meeting me. Leave a legacy for my future kids that my parents were never able to give to me.
• What are your fears? What makes you uncomfortable? What do you hate? Why? I fear being forgotten as if my existence never even mattered. I understand that everyone gets forgotten eventually but I want some staying power. It makes me uncomfortable when people challenge me to things that I’m not already good at. I hate people who try to get me to give up on my goals and pursue happiness their way.
• What do the "highs" in your life look like? I’m super charismatic and everyone loves me. I can relate to both nerds and gang members alike depending on who I’m hanging out with.
• What do the “lows” in your life look like? I’m withdrawn and very critical of the world around me. I get really silent and all the emotion dies. Leaving just a cold blank stare.
• How attached are you to reality? Do you daydream often, or do you pay attention to what's around you? If you do daydream, are you aware of your surroundings while you do so? I understand what’s doable and what’s not. While I have my dreams, I can see which ones would require an inhuman amount of work to accomplish and therefore won’t be accomplished. When I daydream, I am unaware of my surroundings and I do it whenever I’m not interacting with people.
• Imagine you are alone in a blank, empty room. There is nothing for you to do and no one to talk to. What do you think about? About my loved ones back home who need me around for motivation. If I die in this room without reaching my goals, I have failed at life and deserve to lose it all. Kind of revel in that pain in a dark manner.
• How long do you take to make an important decision? And do you change your mind once you've made it? A pretty good minute and my mind can change the moment I receive information that requires me to change it. There’s no reward for being stuck in my own ways. It can make my belief systems hop all over the board though.
• How long do you take to process your emotions? How important are emotions in your life? Instantly but they never go away. They are always lingering and I can tap into them whenever I feel the urge. Emotions are very important to not just my life but everyone’s in general, it’s what makes you feel alive.
• Do you ever catch yourself agreeing with others just to appease them and keep the conversation going? How often? Why? Not really. I’d probably just get really quiet dL and let them talk but I wouldn’t completely flip flop on my position mid conversation. If you believe something to be true, it should be able to hold up to a little scrutiny. I would only agree if the person was in a higher position of authority because I don’t wanna get squashed by the bigger bug.
• Do you break rules often? Do you think authority should be challenged, or that they know better? If you do break rules, why? I break rules all the time because I get the feeling to. Authority should always be challenged until they prove themselves to be valid. Though I prefer when other people lead the charge, I prefer to mingle other both sides without fully committing to either one. I break rules that I find to be stopping me from being myself or restricting my freedom. If your rules are preventing me from expressing myself in the way I want, I don’t need them.
Madden Ultimate Team 20: Series 5 Reveal Brings Theme Diamonds 2.0 (With Night Train Lane Master), Pat Tillman Upgrade, Eric Dickerson Nerf, And Much More
It is a while since something in Madden Ultimate Team has utterly thrilled me. EA's reveal of Series 5, which drops Friday in MUT, qualifies as that. It's not just the arrival of a new Series, which resets the XP grind again, or its accompanying drop of new Challenges (these tied in with a new Journey, which is itself tied to Theme Diamonds 2.0). It's not even just the rejuvenation of the much-loved Theme Diamonds program, which had been tipped off since basically the drop of the original round and partially revealed by Madden Mobile's inclusion of some of the selected players. Really, it's what seems like a holistic approach to MUT and what it needs being executed on, with smallish touches complimenting a massive content drop, and vice versa. Let's run things down, starting with that content.
Theme Diamonds 2.0: Back And Even Better
Theme Diamonds 2.0 arrives Friday, with 33 new cards — one 94-95 OVR card per NFL team, and a 98 OVR Night Train Lane as the program's Master — that almost all represent new additions to MUT. Here's the list, grouped by division because that's how EA revealed them. AFC East
Bills - Eric Wood
Dolphins - Olindo Mare
Jets - Joe Klecko
Patriots - Logan Mankins
Bengals - Taylor Mays
Browns - Joshua Cribbs
Ravens - Jamal Lewis
Steelers - Joey Porter
Colts - Edgerrin James
Jaguars - Tony Boselli
Texans - Brian Cushing
Titans - Derrick Mason
Broncos - Rod Smith
Chargers - Antonio Cromartie
Chiefs - Will Shields
Raiders - Nnamdi Asomugha
Cowboys - Erik Williams
Eagles - Brian Westbrook
Giants - Victor Cruz
Washington - Doug Williams
Bears - Mike Brown
Lions - Johnnie Morton
Packers - Gilbert Brown
Vikings - Daunte Culpepper
Buccaneers - Simeon Rice
Falcons - Alge Crumpler
Saints - Tracy Porter
Panthers - Kris Jenkins
Cardinals - Anquan Boldin
49ers - Garrison Hearst
Rams - Mike Jones
Seahawks - Marcus Trufant
At first glance, I don't see any players that don't really fit or teams whose fans should be incensed except maybe for the Dolphins, who could obviously use any number of legendary or beloved players (Larry Csonka, Zach Thomas, Mark Duper) more than a kicker to fill out their theme team. That doesn't mean there aren't selections I'd quibble with: Eric Wood doesn't stand out as much as most of the players, but he did have a long career with a single team; Will Shields is the second lineman the Chiefs have gotten from Theme Diamonds (after Brian Waters), and Derrick Thomas is obviously a white whale worth pursuing from that franchise; Garrison Hearst isn't really going to play for 49ers theme teams that now have a Raheem Mostert at RB1, and he said some really ugly things about the prospect of gay teammates (before later apologizing). I think there will also be some significant frustration about what the Theme Diamonds 2.0 sets require, as they appear to be following in the stead of the Team MVP cards from a year ago in requiring a number of cards from previous programs. The set for Mare was the only one shown on stream, and it required Dolphins players from Flashbacks, Team of the Week, MUT Heroes, Harvest, Football Outsiders, and Zero Chill as well as Core Elites that were already used once for the original Theme Diamond; a pack with players needed for these Theme Diamonds sets also revealed that NFL Playoffs players will be required for some sets. If you really want a Theme Diamond 2.0 player at program launch, do your best to collect a bunch of program Elite players from the team you're looking to get one from, and you might get lucky enough to have half or more of the required pieces on hand tomorrow. If you're not willing to pay what will now be inflated prices, too bad: These prices are going to remain inflated, and the Diamonds themselves overpriced, for some time to come. Despite that inevitability, and without even experiencing the release tomorrow, it's impossible to deny that Theme Diamonds has been a grand slam of a program, one that has seemingly opened the floodgates for EA in terms of spending the money to obtain licensing rights to players both integrally important to teams and deeply loved by fans and players. While there's no single player in either Theme Diamonds pool who was new to MUT and a knockout addition on his own, a few players (Edgerrin James, Nnamdi Asomugha, Brian Westbrook) come close, and the breadth of the program is breathtaking: The 50ish new-to-MUT players included in Theme Diamonds is essentially a match for the Legends crop EA has rolled out for several years, and yet it didn't stop EA from also including new players in the Legends pool, churning out a robust NFL 100 program, or dropping surprising big names (Dante Hall, Kordell Stewart) out of nowhere. And these 2.0 Diamonds are all coming out at competitive OVRs, and with theme teams prebuilt to accept and boost them. That wasn't really the case for all of the original ones, some of which required then-expensive Training to get to competitive levels. MUT 20 is by far the best MUT for players with even a bit of a historical sense of the NFL based on the work EA has done to obtain as many licenses as it has, and Theme Diamonds is at the heart of that. While there are ways to improve the program going forward, any critique of it at present is nitpicking.
EA Finally Gets a Nerf Right on the Specs
As exciting as Theme Diamonds 2.0 is, though, my single favorite reveal from the stream was what EA is doing to nerf the most overpowered part of the MUT metagame, Eric Dickerson's on-from-kickoff NFL 100 X-Factor. That X-Factor has served as a get-out-of-tackle-free card for about three months now, and its end condition — a tackle for loss — was difficult to satisfy, as Dickerson would consistently shed that first tackle for loss attempt. Per Kraelo's explanation on stream, telemetry told EA devs that this was being used enough that it merited a nerf, so it got hit with a soft bat: Instead of turning off after a first tackle for loss, it will just turn off after five plays, including special teams. I think that compromise is perfectly fair: Players who were abusing Dickerson for entire games by grinding out runs based on him breaking tackles won't be able to do that, even if players who run stretch plays with Dickerson hoping to break them for touchdowns, only to find trouble, spin back inside, run into their own offensive lineman, break a tackle, and somehow keep their X-Factor on no gain will still get five chances to do just that — which is probably about as many as they were getting in the first place. And the compromise offered to players who have obtained Dickerson (likely specifically because of the ability) is also very generous: For a week, there will be trade-in sets available that allow players to swap an auctionable Dickerson for any auctionable NFL 100 player, or an NAT Dickerson for any NAT NFL 100 player. Even if you don't have or care about Dickerson, that presents one hell of an opportunity: Having an auctionable NFL 100 Centennial Edition fantasy pack on hand for the inevitable release of Ultimate Legends that will exceed some of those NFL 100 players is going to be worth hundreds of thousands of Coins at the proper moment. I'm preparing for that, and suggest you consider doing the same.
Series 5 Changes
In addition to a massive new program and a meta-shifting nerf, Series 5 is also bringing some of the changes that we've come to expect from Series changeovers in the last two years of MUT The rundown of what you'd more or less expect:
The MUT Level Cap is being raised to 90.
New Store pack offers, packs, Level Challenges, and Power Up Passes will unlock as you level up.
A new Journey is coming, with deep integration with Theme Diamonds 2.0.
Torry Holt is getting an OVR bump to 97; the Level Master Tokens will show up where they usually do in the MUT Level path.
Pat Tillman is getting an OVR bump to 97, and players will be able to get it either with extra cards already earned for him (the superfluous Image and Border Tokens you would have gotten for either Challenge Star accumulation or H2H wins) or with Training.
The Series 5 Master is a 97 OVR Joey Bosa.
New sets allowing players to acquire Super Bowl players in exchange for Elite players are coming.
New 93-94 OVR exchange sets (requiring 91-92 OVR cards) are also coming.
Those changes will come in addition to the unmentioned but critical update of pack odds, which is the most important reason that the market should be set to crash on Friday — even with Theme Diamonds 2.0 providing some ballast to many parts of it.
Ultimate Legends and More on the Horizon
That is a lot for Friday, and marks it as one of the most exciting days of the MUT calendar. But Saturday, the beginning of the Ultimate Legends cycle, might be even more exciting. Kraelo confirmed on stream that Ultimate Legends begins Saturday, making clear that all of the speculation that it would drop the weekend after the Super Bowl was correct. He didn't give any more details, except to say that the first reveal of Ultimate Legends would come through Muthead's Friday Night Football Twitch stream, but we don't really need details to get excited for Ultimate Legends. EA's pool of possible picks is unfathomably deep this year, too, so I would expect a large crop of ULs to begin with, perhaps as many as 10 or 12, and I would consider it an upset if there isn't a major offensive player and a major defensive player in that first batch. A Calvin Johnson at WR would fill the most significant hole in the current spectrum of available Legends and historical players, and top-tier defenders like Brian Dawkins and Ed Reed have been out for months. And Ultimate Legends, too, is a guaranteed market crash, with players often liquidating binders to scrape together the Coins to nab a few shiny new players. But that's not all: While running down the last few NFL Honors players who got LTD cards on Thursday (MVP Lamar Jackson, Fantasy Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey, and Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore), Kraelo let slip that there was no Comeback Player of the Year Ryan Tannehill "because he was being saved for another program." Now, if I were a betting man, which I am not, I would consider the lack of a 96-97 OVR Tannehill card in NFL Honors and explanation that he's being saved for another program pretty good indication that said other program will include such a card and be released fairly soon. Would I bet on that being this year's version of the well-received Team Builders program from MUT 19? I don't think so: There's enough that the MUT team could do that Team Builders might not be the next thing on the hit list. But I also wouldn't bet against that specific prospect.
I would have never guessed that Ethan would talk about my left nut.
I’m the guy that made fun of the #teamtree proof. Timestamp of the podcast. Emotions got the better of me and when I heard Ethan quoting me, I was taken a bit aback that I wrote something so… bad… As a big h3 fan I need to clarify some stuff. AndI'mashamedthatIwrotesuchahatefulcomment EDIT march 2020. After posting here, I took this post and made it in a comment format. It was the most awarded comment of december 2019 100+ awards And it is also on medium It is easier to share I know it may be a bit boring but please bear with me 5 minutes. You wait 5 minutes for the coffee to be done. 5 minutes is eating a nice salad. It took me hours and hours to write the below. So go, make your coffee, take your salad and please read the following. And please read it with an open mind. I’ll try to sum up why planting trees is a marketing stunt and we are past the saving point. Everything in here is backed by sources and not some “doomsday” fantasy stuff. Here you have an image of the likelihood of SHTF events of happening. So we are not talking about some alien stuff, war or EMP, but global warming. I’m the same age as Ethan and I’m a Ph.D. in int.relations with a specialization in climate conflicts(I have other masters too). If you look at my top comments on reddit most of them are well researched. Bear in mind, English is not my mother tongue. 10 years ago I was the guy chained up to a tree, 5 years ago I was the guy blocking the street trying to get your attention to stop eating meat. I was arrested, ridiculed and "roughed up". Now I’m just resigned and I’ll try to present you with some graphs and news and then sum it up at the end. Most people don’t want to read white papers because they are too boring. On the other hand, journal articles are backed by private corporation’s money and they try to minimize global warming. nconvenientnews created a great post about the latter, on how the billionaires are discrediting the climate activists. Good GQ article on how the billionaires caused the climate change and in here you have 20 firms behind 1/3 of CO2 For all you white paper junkies, here you’ll find 30,000 scientific papers about how F*cked we are. For all audio lovers here you have a 30 minutes talk about why everything must collapse. "There's no infinite growth"
Let’s get to it.
5 years ago there was a tv show called The Newsroom. It was mostly a serious tv show with some comedic tones about the world of media. There is a famous 5 minutes clip about climate collapse. It was "comedic" back then however now it is the reality.
Why tree-loss prevention is more important than planting them.
This used to be the point at which scientists thought we were OK. In 2018 the IPCC wanted to stop global warming at this temperature predicting we will hit it with a 10% chance by 2023. At this temperature, heatwaves across the globe will happen every single year, and these 'new' heatwaves will be as hot as the Sahara Desert. There will be massive crop destruction, 70% of coral in the ocean will be bleached, and drought will affect 360M people. source. Guess whataccording to the month-old IPCC 2019 report we are at 1.5C already . The number of loss events (Tsunamis, storms, flood, wildfire) between 1980-2015 has QUADRUPLED. Historically, every climate summit missed their target of limiting GHG emissions by a lot. Another angle.
Biomass and 6th extinction
Earth appears to be undergoing a process of "biological annihilation." Up to half of the total number of animal individuals that once shared the Earth with humans are already gone. A 2017 study looked at animal populations across the planet by examining 27,600 vertebrate species — about half of the overall total that we know exist. They found that more than 30% of them are in decline. Some species are facing total collapse, while local populations of others are going extinct in specific areas. Moreover humans wiped out 60% of animal populations since 1970 Source Insects are dying off at record rates. Roughly 40% of the world's insect species are in decline, according to one study. Insects aren't the only creatures taking a hit. In the past 50 years, more than 500 amphibian species have declined worldwide — and 90 have gone extinct — due to a deadly fungal disease that corrodes frog flesh. Source And Plants are going extinct up to 350 times faster than the historical norm On the other side, Look at the explosion of domesticated animals between 1950 and 2000. Cattle is one of the causes of global warming. Ie. The Amazon is being cut down not for lumber but to make room for cattle SourceOur hope in her is all the Beyondmeat, Impossible burger which are not using animal protein and are way better for the environment.
The steep steep curve of population. If our numbers grow by 228,000 on an average day, then in one week, we will have added about 1,589,000 extra persons to world population. And five days after that we will add another million and then another and another, and we are on track to continue this way repeatedly into the foreseeable future. Never before in human history have we asked our governments, infrastructure, social institutions, earth's environment, and the social fabric of our civilizations to respond to and accommodate such mammoth increase numbers in such compressed periods of time. Source. To prepare for it Humanity must produce more food in the next four decades than we have in the last 8,000 years But we are wasting so much food and losing so much water in irrigation that taking all this into account Society will collapse by 2040 due to catastrophic food shortages. The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. Source
2.0 degree of warming:
Permafrost and Methane
At this level we expect 6.6 million square kilometers of permafrost to thaw. And create a feedback loop of releasing a lot of methane which means that melting ice caps and permafrost becomes a self-accelerating extinction. Already boiling with Methane But that is also terrifying because we know that there are pathogens frozen in that permafrost - pathogens like anthrax. Zombie antrax.
We are running out of topsoil Source, by 2055 we will have none of it video. That's the warning of "Surviving the 21st Century" author Julian Cribb to an international soil science conference in Queenstown, New Zealand on Dec 15, 2016. "10 kilos of topsoil, 800 litres of water, 1.3 litres of diesel, 0.3g of pesticide and 3.5 kilos of carbon dioxide – that's what it takes to deliver one meal, for just one person," Cribb says.. And it takes 2000 years to form 5cm of topsoil If ecosystems start to break down, that means bees will eventually die. Which means that we will stop having pollination. Which means plants will die. Which means our crops will die. If you don't think this will affect you...just you wait until food becomes the rarest commodity on Earth. If you think you have seen human barbarity, just wait until those same humans are starving and desperate for food. This won't mean millions starving. It will mean billions starving. Including you.
A Blue Ocean Event means that huge amounts of sunlight won't get reflected back into space anymore, as they previously were. Instead, the heat will have to be absorbed by the Arctic. As long as the Arctic Ocean has sea ice, most sunlight gets reflected back into space and the 'Center-of-Coldness' remains near the North Pole. A Blue Ocean Event will not only mean that additional heat will have to be absorbed in the Arctic, but also that wind patterns will change radically and even more dramatically than they are already changing now, which will also make that other tipping points will be reached earlier. This is why a Blue Ocean Event is an important tipping point and it will likely be reached abruptly and disruptively by 2022.source The arctic ice volume over the years in one chart. It is a Death spiral. Oh, and rising seas could affect three times more people by 2050 than previously hought
The ice sheet feedback loop
And when it comes to rising ocean levels its becoming increasingly difficult to predict because not only are we heating the air, heat is getting trapped in the oceans too which means that ice sheets in the Arctic circle and Greenland are melting from above and below - meaning they're melting much MUCH faster than we estimated even in our most extreme estimates. Vice news video about it. This will mean that Florida and New York could be completely underwater. If you're worried about refugees from Central and Latin America or Africa, you'll want to start thinking about the tens of millions of people that will be fleeing inland as climate refugees to escape the inundation of their homes. Warming oceans doesn't just mean rising ocean levels either - it means more ocean water gets evaporated, which means larger, faster and deadlier hurricanes and torrential disastrous downpours.
Extreme heatwaves that kill even healthy people within hours will strike parts of the Indian subcontinent unless global carbon emissions are cut sharply and soon, according to new research. Even outside of these hotspots, three-quarters of the 1.7bn population – particularly those farming in the Ganges and Indus valleys – will be exposed to a level of humid heat classed as posing “extreme danger” towards the end of the century. The new analysis assesses the impact of climate change on the deadly combination of heat and humidity, measured as the “wet bulb” temperature (WBT). Once this reaches 35C, the human body cannot cool itself by sweating and even fit people sitting in the shade will die within six hours. There are already part of thw world above 32-33
oceans are absorbing a large portion of the CO2 emitted into the atmosphere—in fact, oceans are the largest single carbon sink in the world, dwarfing the absorbing abilities of the Amazon rainforest. But the more CO2 the oceans absorb, the more acidic they become on a relative scale, because some of the carbon reacts within the water to form carbonic acid. If acidification decreases marine emissions of sulfur, it could cause an increase in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth’s surface, speeding up warming—which is exactly what the Nature Climate Change study predicts. Researchers estimate that the pH of the ocean will drop by 0.4 pH units by the end of this century if carbon emissions are not stopped, or by 0.15 units if global temperature rise is limited to 2C. source And plankton and all fishes are plunging. There is a mass extinction in the oceans right now
We have at most 30 years if we stop completely CO2 emissions. Every powerplants needs to stop today. Today. Not tomorrow, not by 2025, not by 2030. I know it is impossible that’s why we have at most 30 years. But the sooner we accept it the sooner we may make peace with it. By continuing on this path, we are creating more feedback loops that are out of our control and forest fires, migrations, wars may happen sooner than expected.
Costs of going green are insane and the global economy is unable to bear the brunt of this mass switch. Going 100% green energy is not possible with the current consumption. Earth lacks enough metals to produce solar panels, batteries and ways to distribute energy around the globe. Building one wind turbine requires 900 tons of steel, 2,500 tons of concrete and 45 tons of plastic. Solar power requires even more cement, steel and glass—not to mention other metals. Global silver and indium mining will jump 250% and 1,200% respectively over the next couple of decades to provide the materials necessary to build the number of solar panels, the International Energy Agency forecasts. World demand for rare-earth elements—which aren’t rare but are rarely mined in America—will rise 300% to 1,000% by 2050 to meet the Paris green goals. If electric vehicles replace conventional cars, demand for cobalt and lithium, will rise more than 20-fold. That doesn’t count batteries to back up wind and solar grids. SourceA periodic table of elements that we are running out of And China controls 90% of all rare minerals source A single electric-car battery weighs about 1,000 pounds. Fabricating one requires digging up, moving and processing more than 500,000 pounds of raw materials somewhere on the planet. The alternative? Use gasoline and extract one-tenth as much total tonnage to deliver the same number of vehicle-miles over the battery’s seven-year life. The new green deal is not enough. The Developing World Is Increasing Emissions At Such A Rate That Any Emission Reduction By The Developed World Will Be Offset. Even if we imagined that the political will could be found in both the United States and the European Union to spend trillions on a Green New Deal, and we made the somewhat generous assumption that these plans would be successful in achieving net zero emissions by 2030, it would really have no meaningful impact on global carbon emissions. The rapidly industrializing developing world is increasing emissions at such a rate that even if the US and the EU achieved zero emissions by 2030, it would be entirely offset. Same with a meat tax. We can impose a tax on meat in the developed countries but China, India or South america are eating more and more meat by the day. According to Asia Research and Engagement's report "charting Asia's protein journey", meat and seafood consumption in Asia will rise 33# by 2030 and 78% from 2017 to 2050
An international team of researchers has looked at the material demands and pollution that would result from a push to get the globe to 40 percent renewables by the middle of the century. The analysis finds that despite the increased materials and energy demands, a push like this would result in a dramatic reduction in pollution. And for the most part, the material demands could be met, with the possible exception of copper. 40% Green Energy requires 200% more copper 100% green energy requires 500% more copper. We move some 3 billion tons of earth per year to get 15 millions tons of copper. We cannot recycle it into existence. Substituting aluminum for copper takes 5X the energy and is less safe. And there is no substitutes for the metals
We have increased fossil fuel use more this century than in the last two decades of the 20th century. More than half of all fossil fuel emissions released over the previous 25 years are more than was released in all of recorded history before 1990.
Even though we have had over 21 international conferences on fossil fuel reduction, and we had international treaties since at least 1993 pledging we would reduce global warming, we still are about 67% higher in carbon emissions than the early 1990s. (Atmospheric carbon emissions is probably the best way to measure future global warming.)
In 2018 carbon emissions increased another dramatic 2.7% and they are projected to rise once again in 2019.
Edit2: Someone asked me what’s the most crazy SHTF thing that may happen but is backed by science? My personal favorite a Carrington-level solar storm. “A Carrington-level, extreme geomagnetic storm is almost inevitable in the future. The total U.S. population at risk of extended power outage from a Carrington-level storm is between20-40 million, with durations of 16 days to 1-2 years “ Source. According to unpublished FEMA documents obtained by Government Attic, a FOIA database and non-profit organization, the Department of Homeland Security agency once mapped out a disaster plan for the occurrence of another geomagnetic "superstorm," noting that the rare—yet "high-consequence"—scenario has "the potential for catastrophic impact on our nation and FEMA's ability to respond." Source Edit3: What can you do to prepare for collapse?
buy land, build a community around it and enjoy life. (nearly impossible as you need a lot of money)
become a prepper, learn skills, stockpile food and water.
EDIT4: thank you for the plat, gold and special (?) award! For any future donator, instead of gilding please donate to Cool Earth link. They try to save the rainforest, David Attenborough supports them and they are the most cost-effective charity to date which works on mitigating climate change through direct action. Thank you! (And my response to the anonymous note with the plat award - I'm a member ;) )
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