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FIRE and Kids – The cost of raising children in Australia

This post has been inspired by this recent podcast featuring three of the biggest names in the Aussie FIRE blogging community, and the follow on discussions in the Aussie Firebug Facebook group about how much it costs to raise kids in Australia. As all three acknowledge they don’t have kids so it’s not something they really have any experience with.
As someone who has two young kids I thought it would be useful to write about it from my perspective. Obviously my situation isn’t the same as everyone else’s, there are plenty of people who would be horrified with how much we’ve spent, and others who would wonder how we manage to spend so little. Everyone’s situation is different, so what works for my family wouldn’t necessarily work or others.
My oldest child has only just started school this year so I can’t really speak from experience beyond the 0-5yo age range, but I’ll talk through some of the typical costs, what we have and haven’t spent money on so far, and what we’re anticipating in the future.
The costs people actually talk about The first two things that almost always come up when people start talking about the cost of babies are prams and carseats. Yes, you can spend a lot of money on these things if you want to, prams in particular. From a quick look at Baby Bunting the most expensive pram there is nearly 3 thousand dollars, and I’m betting that with a few accessories you can easily get over that mark.
No, you do not need to spend that much on a pram. Yes you can probably pick one up on the cheap from Kmart or Target etc for well under a hundred bucks, but it’s probably not going to be as sturdy or hold much of the gear you take with you. Happily a pram is also the sort of thing where you can pretty easily and safely pick one up secondhand or get a hand me down from someone else.
We bought a Babyzen Yoyo, which is basically a small sized pram although it still has enough storage room for us. It folds up so that you can take it on a plane as carry on luggage, is quite light, extremely maneuverable and very sturdy. I’ve taken it running plenty of times, it’s even got a Parkrun PB of 22:06!
This thing is absolutely gold. Unfortunately it’s priced as though it’s made of it as well. There wasn’t an option to get one second hand because it had only just been released so we had to pay full whack. I think we spent over a thousand dollars on it including all the accessories and the lie flat and sit up seats etc.
It was worth every cent. It’s been going for 5 years and 2 kids and is still in great shape, we’ve never had a problem with it at all. My wife tells me it is one of the best things I have ever bought her, although we both use it obviously.
And at the end of the day a one off cost of $1,000 for us as a family is going to have basically zero impact on when we hit FIRE. Plugging the numbers into a compound interest calculator and using 7% annual return over 30 years I miss out on $8,000, which is about a month worth of returns on my target portfolio. I can live with delaying retirement one month for about 5 cumulative years of having a really good pram that works great for us.
Similarly you can spend a fair chunk of money on car seats. This is one of those things that I wouldn’t want to get second hand because you can’t see if they’ve been broken or not and safety is a huge priority for us and presumably everyone else.
Happily car seats don’t tend to cost that much, you can pick one up for a couple hundred bucks or less pretty easily. If you do that it tends to be one for a much shorter age range, say 0-2yrs whereas I think you can get ones which will take your kid from 0-8 but they cost a lot more. In any case per kid you’re probably looking at a thousand bucks total, and this could easily be a lot less.
Again it’s not going to make any appreciable different to us reaching FIRE. So as easy as it is to point at this sort of stuff as being ridiculously expensive and over priced etc, it’s really not going to make much of a difference to most people. Sure you don’t want to spend any more money than you have to, but you also want to make sure you’re getting something that works for you.
The other one off costs There are also a bunch of one off costs for babies and young kids like cots, beds, mattresses, baby carriers etc. From what I’ve been told you want to buy a baby mattress new, but that’s only about a hundred bucks at Target, potentially cheaper elsewhere. We have an Ikea cot which cost about the same, you could easily get one second hand or likely for free just by asking around your friends who will probably be delighted to get it out of their house.
Some people do co-sleeping in which case you don’t need the cot and mattress although you may like to kid yourself that your baby will actually sleep in their own bed, maybe even through the night. It’s nice to pretend sometimes!
As kids get older you’ll need a proper bed for them, again you can probably pick this up second hand pretty cheap and a mattress can be easily had for a couple hundred bucks. So none of these things are really going to have much of an impact so long as you’re a decent saver already.
The big costs you see When you don’t have kids it can be great to live in a studio flat or one bedroom apartment in the inner city close to all the bars and restaurants and all the rest of it. You can stay in your local area and have plenty to keep you entertained, there is probably a supermarket nearby and plenty of public transport so you may not need a car either.
Once you have kids, it’s likely going to be a different story as your priorities change. It may be that you’re happy renting with kids, but lots of people tend to prioritise stability and security when they have kids and that means owning your own home in most cases. I’m not saying everyone will want this, but a lot of people will.
So now that you have kids you almost certainly want a second bedroom and if you’re planning on having more kids maybe a third or fourth etc. Obviously kids can share bedrooms for a while at least but sooner or later they will probably want their own space, as will you.
You’ll also be wanting parks with playgrounds nearby and somewhere you can easily take your kids for a walk or kick a football around, ideally in a good school district which can add a couple hundred thousand dollars to the cost all by itself if you’re in Sydney or Melbourne. And if you want to live somewhere cheaper but send the kids to a good private school, well that can cost anywhere from the low thousands to multiple tens of thousands per year.
Similarly if you didn’t have a car before, you will very likely want one now. I’ve mentioned before that we drive a base model Corolla which works just fine for us so far, but you’re still probably looking at $20k plus if you buy one new, mid teens if you want one used. If you want an SUV or a luxury model car, be prepared to fork out a lot more.
In the same vein if you were previously going on lots of holidays and plan to keep doing so, well you now have at least one more plane ticket to buy, might need a bigger hotel room etc. As I talked about in this post about big ticket items, that all comes at a real cost. We bought land and built a house, so I can say that we spent roughly $100,000 more on that than we would have otherwise.
The ongoing costs There are also a bunch of ongoing costs for kids as well. They need to be fed, they need clothes and shoes, they need medicine, and a bunch of other stuff that costs money. I wrote here about a bunch of things that we do to keep costs down, but the reality is that you still have to fork over a decent chunk of change.
On top of all that contrary to what you might have been told public school is not free, there are a bunch of things that you have to chip in for here as well. We’re not at the stage that we’re forking out a fortune in extra utility bills etc but we certainly use the washing machine a lot more than we would if we didn’t have kids, there are extra lights and tvs etc on so there are extra costs there as well.
There are also a bunch of extra items that you don’t really need to spend, but probably will. For us this includes stuff like swimming lessons, some sports like AusKick (AFL) and Junior Blasters (cricket), occasionally taking them to a theme park or zoo etc. They also get birthday and Christmas presents, and if they get invited to other kids parties they take a store bought gift with them.
The above is about what I think our 5yo costs us at the moment based on our spending, our 2yo is probably about two thirds of that due mostly to her not eating as much and not getting swimming lessons yet, as well as not being in school or doing sports.
I’ve left the holiday line blank because this is hugely variable. Last year we did a trip to the UK and it probably cost us about $3,000 extra between the two of them, next time it will be another couple thousand dollars more because the youngest one will need her own seat rather being on someone’s lap for the flights.
So our spending for our eldest is about two thirds of the costs quoted in this article for a 6yo girl, I would assume that apart from a boy maybe eating a bit more the costs should be fairly similar. The main difference compared to our costs seem to be education and transport.
Also, it was somewhat shocking to me just how expensive swimming lessons are! This is actually at our local council aquatic centre and is the cheapest in town. We do get to use the pool whenever we want, but that only tends to be once or twice a week at most. At least the lessons will hopefully only be for a few years for each child, although after that we may be forking out for something else instead.
The hidden cost of kids The biggest cost is often actually one that doesn’t show up as an expense, the opportunity cost of one parent giving up paid employment entirely for a while or doing part time hours (I’ve used the phrase giving up paid employment here because looking after kids and a house is definitely work!).
If we say that you’re giving up a full time paid job that’s at minimum wage of roughly $20 an hour for 40 hours a week, 48 weeks a year, then that’s $38,400 a year ($33,605 after tax and medicare levy) that the family is giving up for however long this goes on for. If you’d otherwise be earning more than that, then the opportunity cost each year is even higher. On top of that there is the hit to your career and future earnings, because those are definitely going to be impacted as well.
If you’ve got two kids that are separated by two or three years and you as a family want a parent at home until they go to school, well that’s 7 or 8 years of missing out on that money which works out as around $250k based on a full time minimum wage job. I’m pretty hopeful that my wife would be earning more than minimum wage as well so for us it’s even more than that. On the plus side, she gets to spend more time with the kids although that probably feels like a mixed blessing some of the time!
Alternatively if both parents want to keep working then there will likely be childcare costs for the first 4 or 5 years and then before and after school care, as well as missing out on spending time with their kids. Because we haven’t gone down this route I don’t know exactly how much it costs, I do hear plenty of stories about it being $100 a day minimum around where I live and it’s a lot more in capital cities. There are subsidies available for this, but you can pretty easily be spending tens of thousands each year on childcare while they’re young and then once they’re old enough before and after school care.
You may be lucky enough to have grandparents or other family nearby that are happy to help out with this if they live nearby, but that won’t apply to everyone and it’s unlikely to reduce the cost entirely.
The costs that are yet to come At the moment our kids are still young and fairly inexpensive. Between the two of them they tend to eat roughly what a grown adult eats, but from what I’ve been told that will change fairly dramatically as they get older. They’ll need new clothes more frequently, more shoes, potentially play more sports, go on more school excursions, you get the idea.
Education could be another factor. There is a public high school that will be built in the next few years quite close by, and assuming that it’s decent our kids will likely be going there. But if it’s not, then we’ll have to look into private schools which can cost anywhere from a few thousand dollars to tens of thousands.
There will be extra curricular stuff as well. Given my wife and I are both horrible at music it seems unlikely that our kids will be doing extra lessons there, but there are plenty of other areas like sport or extra educational activities that we’d be considering. I know a few parents who have kids who are in elite sports programs (as in regional or state teams) and the costs here can very quickly add up, likewise if extra education is needed or wanted then that’ll be an extra expense.
Government and other assistance I know that depending on your circumstances that there can be government assistance in the form of Family Tax Benefit, childcare subsidy and possibly other programs as well. We don’t get any of these which is fine, we don’t need them and they are presumably meant to be for those who do. If you’re not sure if you should be getting any of these then Centrelink does have this payment finder.
We did get the one day a week Kinder program for 3yos and 3 days a week Kinder program for 4yos, although these both also came with costs of roughly $1,500 a year so it actually cost us money, again this is fine, just a reminder that it isn’t actually free.
Depending on your employer you may also be able to get parental leave for a while, and there is a minimum payment which they have to make so long as you’ve met some requirements. Some employers may also have some continuing support with subsidised childcare and the like. None of this was applicable to our situation but at least some of it will likely be available for others.
So what’s the bottom line? For us the biggest actual one off cost so far has been the bigger house and land that we purchased because we wanted our kids to be able to have plenty of space inside and outside the house. That cost about a hundred thousand dollars more than we would have paid if it were just the two of us. All the other stuff like a pram, car seats, cots/beds, mattresses and all the rest of it have been maybe $5,000 total, which is tiny by comparison.
The opportunity cost has been bigger than this though. When we had our first child when we were in Hong Kong my wife wasn’t working much anyway as there just weren’t that many jobs she could do and my wage easily supported both of us so she was doing some very casual part time work and so not doing that work afterwards didn’t impact us much.
In Australia though she probably would have been earning at least $40,000 a year after tax, so we’ve foregone almost $200,000 on an after tax basis there. Which as I’m sure you can imagine has a pretty big impact on when we will hit FIRE, particularly given we’ve got another few years or her not being in paid employment at all and then likely only working part time after that. So I would guess we’ll be looking at forgone earnings of at least $500,000 by the time all is said and done, and it could quite easily be a lot more.
The actual ongoing costs of the kids so far haven’t been too bad. Between the two of them it’s about $8,000 a year at the moment, although we would anticipate that this will go up a fair bit over time as they start eating more and getting into more extra curricular activities. I get that this is spending that isn’t a necessity, but do I really want my kids to miss out on a bunch of fun stuff so that I can retire a year or two earlier? No, no I do not.
So far the total costs look something like this. You can see that by far the biggest cost has been the earnings that we’ve missed out on because my wife has been at home looking after the kids and doing the household stuff (yes I do some of it because I think it’s important that we share the jobs and to role model stuff for the kids, but the reality is that she is at home a lot more than I am and does more of it). Buying a bigger house and land is next, and the actual costs of feeding and clothing and all the other one off stuff for the kids is a tiny proportion of the actual cost.
All up I’m hopeful that we can keep the ongoing costs to somewhere between $125k and $150k per child from birth through to age 18, although if private school is necessary then that will push up the costs a fair bit. This is less than half of what this article suggests, so although it sounds like a lot of money it’s actually fairly frugal by comparison.
To put it in perspective, it’s basically spending about 7 or 8 grand a year on each child. There are plenty of people out there who spend more than that on food alone, let alone the rest of their living expenses.
As I said earlier travel costs are on top of this, and this can increase the costs quite a lot! Travel is a huge part of the reason we’re pursuing HIFIRE, and we want to be taking the kids on plenty of holidays while they’re growing up.
That’s obviously discretionary spending to a large extent, but we do have close family living overseas who we want to see every couple of years or so, and it’s not fair to expect them to always be the ones travelling. I would guess that we’ll be looking at about $50k per kid in travel costs by the time they turn 18. That’s about 3 grand a year, which doesn’t sound wrong based on the cost of international travel. It may be less than that which would be great, but could also be a fair bit more.
So all up for the two kids we’re looking at about a million dollars from birth to age 18. About half of that is the foregone wages from not working, which is by far the biggest impact. The actual cost of the kids is about another 30%, then travel is 10%, another 10% for the bigger house and land. And then right at the end is less than 1% for the one off stuff like prams and baby seats and cots etc.
How could we spend less? Obviously there are other things we could be doing instead to keep the cost down. The biggest expense is the wages that aren’t being earned because my wife is looking after the kids and the household stuff. We could have chosen to have her work and instead pay for childcare and after school care etc.
If we did though then she wouldn’t get to spend as much time with the kids (which she tells would be welcome some of the time!) and there would be a lot more house work and shopping that would need to be done after work or on weekends for both of us, we’d potentially eat out more often as it’d be more of a hassle cooking meals each night, as well as a bunch of other tradeoffs.
So having her stay at home was our preferred method, and thankfully we’re in the financial position where we can afford to do it that way. Other people make different choices, or they’re unfortunately not in a position to make a choice, they need both partners working or if they’re a single parent have to do it this way.
We could have also gone with a smaller house and less of a backyard. I shared a bedroom with my brother for part of our childhood and we both managed fine. It’s not ideal, but it’s certainly doable, and we could have saved a lot of money by having a smaller house. Again we chose not to because we wanted a bigger house and a decent sized backyard for them to be able to run around in and we can afford it.
We don’t have to travel, although it’d be a bit rough expecting family to travel overseas to see us every year or two and then not reciprocating. Still, that would save a fair amount of money.
It’s pretty hard to say how things will work out with the actual costs of raising the kids. I know roughly what we’ve spent so far, but it’s pretty difficult to know what we’ll be spending in future as they get older. They’re likely to be eating a fair bit more food, s they grow they’ll need new clothes and shoes, they’ll presumably be playing sport and doing other extra curricular stuff which will all cost money.
$150k per kid from 0 to 18 seems like it’s a lot less than what it costs most people, but then we already live a fair bit more cheaply than most others so maybe it’s about right.
At the end of the day we’re happy with the choices that we’ve made so far, but there has certainly been some room to have spent less money than what we have, or to have had more money coming in through both of us being in paid employment. Obviously it has an impact on when we will hit our FIRE number, but I’d rather take a little bit longer to get there than to make different tradeoffs along the way.
Have you got kids or are thinking about having them? How do you think it will impact on your FIRE journey?
Original post with pretty charts, pictures, tables etc is here.
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Leveraging Optionality: Applying financial theory in the sportsbetting markets

Option Pricing Theory
Stock options are equity derivatives that are frequently used for employee compensation or speculation within the finance realm. Anyone who spends more than 5 minutes on /wallstreetbets should know what I’m talking about. A typical plain vanilla call option provides the upside of capital appreciation with capped downside risk.
The upside potential provided by options frequently holds considerable value. Stock option are frequently valued using the Black-Scholes option pricing method, using variables such as the price of the underlying asset, the exercise price of the option, time to expiration, volatility and a risk-free interest rate.
For our purposes, we’re going to simplify things a bit by using a simple binomial option pricing model which determines option value by assuming the price of an asset can either increase or decrease by some estimated amount with some estimated probability.
Quick example: let’s assume Tesla is trading at $700 per share and they report earnings tomorrow. We assume that depending on how many cars they sold, the price will either be $800 or $600 tomorrow with 50/50 probability. If one of your friends said “Hey, I’ll sell you my share for $700. Just let me know tomorrow if you want it” what should your reply be?
My reply would be, “Sure I’ll let you know tomorrow.” And then I would wait to see how earnings went. If Elon sold a lot of cars (and the price increased to $800) I would go ahead and buy my friend’s share for $700. If earnings crap the bed, I would pass on my friend’s offer and not buy the share. Basically, you have no downside, only upside.
To value this option that our friend gave us, we would simply multiply the payoff in each scenario by the probability of each one occurring:

Scenario Option Value
A) $100 Increase Max($800-$700, 0) = $100
B) $100 Decrease Max($600-$700,0) = $0
Value of Option 50%*$100 + 50%*$0 = $50
In this hypothetical scenario, our friend gave us a free $50 worth of option value.[1]
Optionality in Sports Betting
A key advantage that sports bettors hold is deciding when to bet. We have covered this in a previous post, but it’s important to recognize that lines are dynamic and frequently vary across sportsbooks. Sometimes the lines differ considerably across books and sometimes they are very similar. In the former scenario, bettors can get tremendous value from shopping lines. In the latter, bettors might hold significant option value.
Let me demonstrate with an example.
This season, the New York Jets hosted the New England Patriots in a divisional clash on Monday Night Football. Let’s assume that your model suggests that there is value to betting the Jets on the moneyline (lol). You got your paycheck on Friday and you want to fire off your bet at one of your two sportsbook accounts that evening. Book 1 offers the Jets at +345 and Book 2 offers the Jets at +344. You should go ahead and place your bet at Book 1, right?
Not necessarily.
With odds that are nearly identical, your option value is worth more than the one penny in price difference (on a huge dog). If the line at either book moves up, you can get a better number. If the line at either book moves down, you bet at the book that didn’t move. This is option value. The value of that optionality depends on 1) if the books generally move in tandem, 2) the expected magnitude of the line movement and 3) the amount of time remaining until the game starts.
With the historical lines of each book, you can determine the average discrepancy between the lines to figure out what the likely magnitude of a future line move. In the table below, you can see that there was often a considerable difference between the lines offered at these two books.
Time Series of Odds between Two Books
From line release until 6pm ET on Friday night, there was an average difference of 10 cents between the books. Let’s assume that a 10-cent move is a reasonable estimate for the expected magnitude of the next line movement.
At this point, we don’t know if the next line movement will be in our favor or against us. Let’s assume that there is a 50% likelihood of the next line movement will be -10 cents and a 50% likelihood of the next line movement being +10 cents (on Book 2). [2]
Optionality Example
If the line at Book 2 moves down 10 cents, we bet Book 1 at +345. If the line at Book 2 moves up 10 cents, we bet at Book 2 at +354. By waiting for a line move, we can increase our expected odds from +345 to +349.5.
Value of Optionality
Now, we assume you are betting on the Jets ML because you believe there is an edge and that your expected win percentage exceeds the breakeven win percentage. As an example, let’s assume your expected win percentage is 24.0%. We can now determine your expected profit by 1) betting the odds at +345 or 2) waiting and getting expected odds of +349.5.
As calculated below, the expected profit for a $100 bettor increases from $6.80 to $7.88 by preserving your optionality and waiting to bet. As a result, the indicated value of the optionality is $1.08.
Option Value Calculation
Now – a common critique might be that “hey, we can’t predict the future and there is a chance that both lines move down simultaneously” or that “the lines were volatile early in the week but since reached efficiency”. Certainly, it’s possible that lines move in lockstep, but given the historical spread between the lines, I wouldn’t count on it.[3]
The argument that the lines have settled (and are thus less volatile) can be disproved by the line movement from 6pm ET on Friday until kickoff. If lines have settled, we would expect a negligible difference between the lines going forward. This, however, is not the case as the average difference between lines averaged 11 cents from 6pm ET Friday until kickoff, frequently exhibiting a 20-cent difference and peaking at a difference of 30 cents around midnight on Monday.
Time Series of Odds between Two Books Continued
So - what can we learn from this?
Big picture: if you have multiple sportsbooks with the same line, you’re generally better off waiting for one of the lines to move rather than pull the trigger. This especially holds true when there is a considerable amount of time before kickoff/first pitch/etc.
[1]We’ll ignore some of the technicalities of discounting that you would typically do with financial assets as the term (one day) is negligible and U.S. treasuries are yielding next to nothing.
[2] Doesn’t matter which book we assume will move next. The math is the same.
[3] Let’s also not forget that you’re contemplating placing a wager 72 hours before kickoff. If there are only 5 minutes to kickoff, that’s a different story(clearly not as much option value).
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Basic foundational metrics for measuring your relative sports betting performance

Measuring Returns
Understanding how to measure your performance is a crucial element of being a successful sports bettor. With varying odds and bet allocations, it’s not as simple as just counting your wins and losses. You can win 80% of your wagers, but if those bets were made at poor odds or you had poor bankroll management, you could still have disastrous results.
What you need to measure is your return on investment (“ROI”). In the finance world, ROI is defined as a measurement of the gain or loss generated on investment, relative to the amount of money invested. For example, if you bought Amazon stock at $1,000 per share and it’s currently trading at $1,900 per share, you would say that investment has an ROI of 90% (($1900 - $1,000) / $1,000). Pretty straightforward calculation.
In sports betting, however, there is often confusion regarding how to measure ROI.
Wager ROI
In the 2019 MLB season, Aaron and I wagered around $1.39 million across approximately 800 games. When it was all said and done, we had made approximately $113 thousand. If you divide $113 thousand by $1.39 million, you get 8.1%. Is this our ROI?
If you ask the average sports bettor, they would say yes. If you ask the average finance professional, they would probably ask you “well, how much money did you start with?”
We’re going to define that 8.1% (Net Win / Wagered Amount) as our Wager ROI. For every dollar that we wagered, we made around 8.1 cents.
Wager ROI = [Net Win / Wagered Amount]
Portfolio ROI
We didn't start the 2019 season with a bankroll of $1.39 million, however.
We started with $130 thousand. And we ended with $243 thousand.
Yes, we wagered significantly more than our bankroll. But we started this endeavor with an investment of $130,000. Thus, by the financial definition of ROI, we had an ROI of approximately 87%. To avoid confusion with Wager ROI (and an unnecessary argument from sports bettors), we will define this as our Portfolio ROI. Calculations as follows:
Portfolio ROI = [Ending Investment / Starting Investment – 1]
Cash Turnover Ratio
So how did we wager $1.39 million when we only started with $130,000? Well one of the beauties of sports betting (besides futures) is that the outcome of a wager is determined quickly (~24hrs for MLB, a week for NFL). When you win a game, your sports betting account is credited, and you can then use those proceeds to bet on something else.
How efficiently we use our bankroll is something we’re going to call Cash Turnover Ratio. The Cash Turnover Ratio is the amount of wagers placed, divided by the average portfolio balance over the measurement period. For simplicity, it’s best to calculate your average portfolio balance as the average between your starting and ending bankroll.
Cash Turnover Ratio = [Wagered Amount / ((Starting Portfolio + Ending Portfolio) / 2)]
Our Cash Turnover Ratio for the 2019 baseball season was 7.4x as calculated below:
7.4x = $1.39 million / [($130k + $243k) / 2]
The Cash Turnover Ratio is a measurement of how efficiently we are using our capital. If we had an average portfolio balance of $10 million and only wagered $1.39 million, that would be a very inefficient use of our capital. The only way to increase our Cash Turnover Ratio is to 1) increase our wager size or 2) place more wagers. Of course, increasing our wager size increases our risk and methods such as at Kelly Criterion give us the framework to optimize our bet allocation.
Performance Objective
So what should be our objective? To maximize our Wager ROI? To maximize our Portfolio ROI? Each person is different, but we prioritize Portfolio ROI over Wager ROI.
There’s always going to be a tradeoff between Wager ROI and the number of wagers you play (and therefore your Cash Turnover Ratio). Let’s say you only bet the most select wagers and are able to hit 60% against -110 lines. You would be sporting a very impressive 14.5% Wager ROI, but you could likely improve your Portfolio ROI by being less selective and betting the games that you may only win at a 55% clip. Your Wager ROI would decrease, but the increased volume would increase your Portfolio ROI.
So maximizing Portfolio ROI is a better strategy than maximizing Wager ROI, but is it our performance objective?
Risk Adjusted Returns
Simply, no. What we haven’t addressed yet is the riskiness of a betting strategy.
For example – Bettor 1 has $10,000 and decides to make five $2,000 wagers at -110 over the course of a week. Bettor 1 wins three and lose two, winning a net $1,455, which is good for a Wager ROI of 14.5% and a Portfolio ROI of 14.5%.
Alternatively – Bettor 2 also has $10,000 and makes 50 wagers of $200 instead, winning 30 and losing 20 over the same one-week period. Bettor 2 also has a Wager ROI of 14.5% and a Portfolio ROI of 14.5%.
Do Bettor 1 and Bettor 2 do have equally strong betting strategies? Absolutely not. Bettor 2 was able to achieve the same returns as Bettor 1 but assumed a lot less risk in the process. We can borrow another concept from the financial realm to assess risk-adjusted performance.
The Sharpe Ratio
I’ll save you the boring history and definition of the Sharpe Ratio, but it is essentially a measurement of investment performance compared to a risk-free asset, after adjusting for risk. The Sharpe Ratio represents the additional return generated for an incremental unit of risk. Risk is generally measured as the standard deviation of returns.
For our purposes, we will assume the risk-free asset to have a return of 0.0% given that these bets are short-term securities (and Treasuries are yielding next to nothing).
We can use the Sharpe Ratio to assess the performance of each Bettor. In the table below, we’ve compared Bettor 1 with Bettor 2.
Comparison of Strategies
The big difference between the two bettors is that Bettor 1 assumed a lot more risk with 1) larger bets and therefore a higher standard deviation. As a result, Bettor 2 has a much higher Sharpe ratio than Bettor 1.
You can download a workbook with the above calculations along with a more realistic example of differing betting strategies. Simply replace the shaded cells with your own data to calculate your own Sharpe Ratio. PM me if you want the workbook, or we can migrate it to a google sheet if enough people are interested.
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Tips, Insights, & Things to Look Out For w/ Live Betting

For those who don't already know, I've worked in this industry for 20+ years on both sides of the counter: top level street bookie, sportsbooks manager, worked with gambling syndicates, data analyst for sports information services & still working in the industry.
\*taken from a discussion within my sportsbetting community***
I've discussed the topic of live in-game betting in the past but for new members and the increase in general popularity of LIVE in-game betting I wanted to post an actual lesson. As always I’m not trying to be the fun police here I just want to make sure everyone is aware of where the sports books hold a significant edge.

LIVE BETTING LESSON

Just this past week I’ve read several comments like “I’m just going to wait and get a better number in-game”. Yes you may be getting a better line than the pregame posted line, but you aren’t increasing your edge. The reason you are able to get a better line is likely related to the opposing team performing better or above projections. The odds are changing because new information has been factored in, such as the score. So although you are getting a better line your odds or the all important expected value (EV) hasn’t improved.
When you attempt to place a Live-in-game bet you may think you are accepting the sportsbook's offer, but you aren't. You're really just asking them for a bet. They then wait a fixed period of time (8 secs is common) and IF after that 8 seconds they still think the bet is good FOR THEM they accept it.
This creates substantial adverse selection bias, which in English just means you will get nearly 100% of the bets you try to place that are bad for you (mis-clicks, bad logic, change in game circumstances etc) but a much smaller percentage of the bets you try to place that are good for you (you found a good number, change in game circumstances etc). The odds aren’t conveniently changing in the books favor every time you place a bet, that spinning wheel or loading symbol is a computer deciding if the bet is better for them or you. You have to be nearly perfect to overcome this adverse selection bias. The power to reject bets at will turns live sports betting into a carnival game. You can't beat a book that has a 5% PLUS hold percentage and a smart human/algorithm selectively rejecting all your good bets that may have an edge, unknowingly or not.
Most regulated sports books have an insanely fast live feed in order to change odds. In fact some major sports books have the ability to get information faster than what’s shown on TV. Especially Fan duel or Draftkings, check it out for yourself. They will change odds quicker than events played out on TV. So don’t ever think you will be able to beat the sports books to a line move, they have that covered. It’s actually amazing how fast they’re able to get information in real time with no delay.
Lastly, most books charge -115 or -120 for in-game wagers. Over time this juice will add up in comparison to the standard -110 you lay pregame. Many recreational sports bettors will think, “it’s just 5 or 10 cents” but that is absolutely the wrong thinking. Sports betting is about the long term results. Making decisions in the present that will benefit you in the future. Once you start thinking along those lines you have made a major step, one that many bettors don’t ever get too.

Here Are My Tips:


If a book posts a line during a game and you click in the bet, you should get the bet. Don't settle for less. There are books out there that play it fair and with all these sports books jockeying for share of the market let’s make sure the books that are doing right by their customers rise to the top and the crooked thief’s go under

Hope you all enjoy this information! Ask me comments in the comment section, I'm happy to answer and provide some value.
Cheers 🍻
submitted by bettingnetwork to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

Lines and Coefficients Bwin

Lines and Coefficients Bwin
Bwin is an undeniable leader among gambling facilities. On average, more than 30,000 bets are made daily on more than 90 sports (soccer, basketball, biathlon and others). Website is available in different languages, so everyone will be able to feel comfortable on the company's website. The site interface Bwin https://esportsbetting.pro/bwin is available in 22 world languages, including Russian. For users the bookmaker offers a wide choice of action lines, it allows to make bets not only on the premier leagues but also on amateur leagues matches outcomes.
  • Users can:
  • Bet on sports;
  • Bet on eSport;
Play in casinos and enjoy exciting slot machines, and even play poker.
Casino and bookmaker are located on the same website. Developers tried well to make the playground as comfortable as possible for customers. The most popular games at the casino are Party Poker Bwin and the Premium Poker Bwin.
The betting service will definitely please any gambler, no matter whether he is a rookie or an experienced player. Forecasts are recorded instantly after the application is made. The Administration is making it clear that there is no delay or undervaluation.
The live section will be a pleasant surprise, as the company provides access to the biggest number of events in live mode among the competitors. In addition to single bets, you can make express bets on several types of systems. Some of them can only be found in this bookmaker 's office.
You can make forecasts not only online, but also by calling operators via the phone. The freephone number is listed in the Contacts section on the official website. The minimum bet is 10 cents, and a maximum gain can make $10 per bet.
An attractive option for visitors is a special betting calendar, which allows you to select events that take place on a specified day. Authorized users have the opportunity to enjoy watching matches of their favorite teams via live broadcasts.
After registration and replenishment of the account, users receive a pleasant reward - a free bet. It makes 100% of the amount of the first loss; thus the company attracts even more clients. Freebet is not subject to winnings tax.
Bwin launched a bot telegram named Max, which provides subscribers with detailed statistics on 11 football tournaments. It makes forecasts for the main outcomes of matches. Loyal players receive an invitation to the closed Bookmaker Premium.

https://preview.redd.it/kjsvkydaqg151.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=58169d734e49c85fef45be1a187f235ddf3c54d0
submitted by veronikasova to u/veronikasova [link] [comments]

Today's Pre-Market News [Tuesday, February 11th, 2020]

Good morning traders and investors of the wallstreetbets sub! Welcome to Tuesday. Here is your pre-market news this AM-

Today's Top Headlines for Tuesday, February 11th, 2020

STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:

(CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!)

YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!)

TODAY'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!)

YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!)

THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)

EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)

YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!)

YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!)

TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #2!)

THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING TICKERS:

  • MYO
  • FB
  • UAA
  • UBS
  • MA
  • MSFT
  • NVDA
  • WORK
  • HAS
  • TMUS

THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:

(source: cnbc.com)
Under Armour (UAA) – The athletic apparel maker reported an overall loss for the quarter, and warned of a negative sale impact from the coronavirus. The company also said it is assessing a possible 2020 restructuring.

STOCK SYMBOL: UAA

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
AutoNation (AN) – The nation’s largest car retailer beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines for the fourth quarter, with results boosted by higher demand for pre-owned vehicles.

STOCK SYMBOL: AN

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Hasbro (HAS) – The toymaker reported a quarterly profit of $1.24 per share, well above the consensus estimate of 91 cents a share. Sales fell short of Street forecasts, however, but Hasbro’s bottom line got a boost from toys related to Disney’s “Frozen 2” and “Star Wars” movies.

STOCK SYMBOL: HAS

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Hilton Worldwide (HLT) – The hotel operator earned $1.00 per share for the fourth quarter, 4 cents a share above estimates. Revenue also beat forecasts. Hilton’s 2020 earnings outlook was below analysts’ forecasts, however, and the company said the outlook does not include possible coronavirus impact.

STOCK SYMBOL: HLT

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
T-Mobile US (TMUS), Sprint (S) – The mobile service providers are expected to win the approval of a federal judge for their $26 billion merger deal today, according to sources. That would end an effort by state attorneys general to block the combination of the third- and fourth-largest wireless carriers.

STOCK SYMBOL: TMUS

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

STOCK SYMBOL: S

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Slack Technologies (WORK) – Slack said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that IBM (IBM) had been the messaging platform’s largest customer for several years and had expanded its use of Slack over that time. The statement was issued in response to an earlier report that a new deal had been struck that made IBM Slack’s largest customer, which had sent the stock surging in the regular session Monday.

STOCK SYMBOL: WORK

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
*Callaway Golf (ELY) *– Callaway lost 26 cents per share for its fourth quarter, wider than the 23 cents a share loss that analysts were expecting. The golf club maker reported better-than-expected revenue but said the coronavirus will have a negative impact in terms of both sales in Asia and on supplies.

STOCK SYMBOL: ELY

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
ViacomCBS (VIACA) – ViacomCBS unit CBS Sports has struck a deal with sports betting company William Hill, allowing William Hill to seek new customers among the CBS Sports audience. William Hill would seek to get CBS Sports users to download its app and deposit money in betting accounts.

STOCK SYMBOL: VIAC

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
XPO Logistics (XPO) – XPO beat estimates by 10 cents a share, with adjusted quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share. The transportation and delivery company’s revenue came fall below analysts’ forecasts, however. XPO also announced the appointment of a new chief financial officer.

STOCK SYMBOL: XPO

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Boston Beer (SAM) – Boston Beer was upgraded to “outperform” from “neutral” at Credit Suisse, which points to the company’s increasing involvement in the hard seltzer market. Credit Suisse also increased its price target on the beer brewer’s stock to $525 per share from $400.

STOCK SYMBOL: SAM

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

DISCUSS!

What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at wallstreetbets?

I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Tuesday, February 11th, 2020! :)

submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Correlative Parlays in the MLB Futures Market - Create +EV from O/U Win Totals

Correlated Season Win Totals
TL;DR: Parlaying divisional teams in MLB Win Total O/Us can create +EV bets
The outcomes of season win totals for teams are not independent of each other. Because there are a finite number of wins available, we know that it would be impossible to bet and win 100% of under wagers. In fact, we can come up with a distribution of possible outcomes by simulating past seasons, but that is something for another day.
What we’d like to focus on is the correlation of win totals between specific teams in the MLB. The MLB schedule is designed such that a team plays each of its four divisional opponents 19 teams each (76 games). That team also plays 66 games against the 10 other league rivals and plays 20 interleague games.
The concentration of divisional games, however, gives us a situation where there is a significant correlation between win total outcomes between divisional rivals. For example, if the SF Giants go 19-0 against the LA Dodgers, the Giants have a good chance of hitting their win total “over” while the Dodgers have a good chance of hitting their win total “under”. Thus, if you were betting these two teams, their win totals are clearly not independent of one another.
If win totals between different teams were truly independent of one another, we would expect each instance to have a 50.0% chance of happening (assuming no win inflation) and we’d be able to simply multiply the probability of each outcome to determine the probabilities associated with the outcome matrix as shown below.
https://imgur.com/de1Y7EW
As displayed above, the odds of the Team A going over their win total (50.0% likelihood) and Team B going under (50.0% likelihood) would be 25.0% (50.0% x 50.0%).
However, we know that these events aren’t truly independent of one another. In fact, we can measure the correlation between divisional rivals’ win totals by simulating the season using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. After 50,000 simulations, we have determined that on average, when one divisional rival goes over their win total, a divisional opponent would go under their win total approximately 54.0% of their time. That gives us the following outcome matrix:
https://imgur.com/u2hpkvB
As you can see, the probability of both teams going under their win totals decreases from 25.0% to 23.0% when we acknowledge the correlation between the two.
How to Incorporate Into a Betting Strategy
If you parlay two -110 wagers, you will typically get odds of +264 (+264.46 to be exact). These odds are determined by multiplying the breakeven win probability on each leg of the parlay. With each leg priced at -110, you need to hit each leg at 52.4%, and therefore win 27.4% of the time (52.4% x 52.4%) to breakeven at +264 odds. These calculations are displayed below.

Parlay Pricing Odds Breakeven %
Wager 1 -110 52.4%
Wager 2 -110 52.4%
Parlay Breakeven % 27.4%
Parlay Odds +264
The pricing on parlays implicitly assumes that each leg of the parlay is independent of each other and you therefore only have a 25.0% of hitting that parlay. As a result, the expected return for a randomly selected parlay is approximately -8.9%.

Outcome Probability Payoff
Win 25.0% +264.5
Wager 2 75.0% -100
100% -8.9
Parlay EV -8.9%

A correlated parlay is not random, however. In fact, due to the correlation between season win totals for divisional rivals, if we were to parlay one divisional over with one divisional under, our win probability would be approximately 27.0% The difference between 27.0% and 25.0% may not seem like much, but it increases our EV from -8.9% to -1.6%.

Outcome Probability Payoff
Win 27.0% +264.5
Wager 2 73.0% -100
100% -1.6
Parlay EV -1.6%

Still -EV but getting close. In fact, this edge is so small now, it only takes some basic line shopping to move into +EV territory. Let’s say one book offers the Dodgers at Over 101.5 -110, and one offers Over 101.5 -105. Just having that one leg at -105 increases our EV from -1.6% to +0.6%.
Where Can I Bet on Correlated Parlays?
Unfortunately, most sportsbooks are wise enough to recognize the correlation and don’t offer parlays on season win totals. A few do, however.
5Dimes is one of the offshore books that allows parlaying of season win totals for divisional rivals in the MLB (and other sports). Below we’re sharing a couple (significantly) +EV parlays that you can hit on 5Dimes. While most people have a single go-to sportsbook, this is another instance where having multiple sportsbooks at your disposal gives you a long-term advantage.
Plus-EV Parlays at 5Dimes
Parlay #1: Phillies Over 84.5 (-105) and Marlins Under 64.5 (+115)
Odds: +320
Breakeven %: 23.8%
Est. Win %: 27.2%
Expected Value (%): 14.3%
Analysis: Across six different sportsbooks (offshore and U.S.) the next-best odds to be found on Marlins U64.5 is +104 (FanDuel and Pinnacle). 5Dimes is 11-cents better than the next best offering on the Marlins. Most books are offering the Phillies at 85.5 with odds between -110 and +110. We’d rather take the 5Dimes line of Over 84.5/-105 and spend the 15 cents to cross the 85 instead of taking Over 85.5/+110 based on our assumed push probability of 4.5% for win totals. With the correlative properties increasing our win % an addition ~2%, we find there to be considerable value with this parlay.
Parlay #2: Cubs Over 85.5 (+100) and Cardinals Under 86.5 (+110)
Odds: +320
Breakeven %: 23.8%
Est. Win %: 28.0%
Expected Value (%): 17.7%
Analysis: This one is more about the value on the Cardinals that the Cubs, to be honest. The offshore books are sitting at a heavily juiced 87.5 for the Cardinals under (Pinnacle U87.5 -158). FanDuel is the only other book offering Under 86.5, and they are offering -110. At +110, there is tremendous value on the Cardinals leg. The Cubs leg isn’t as profitable, but still approximately 7-cents better than consensus.
Conclusion: Using this framework can lead to endless correlative parlay possibilities with +EV, but it is critical to have multiple sportsbook accounts - finding the right sportsbook to take your bet is a key blocker from extracting value.
submitted by cleatstreet to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Today's Pre-Market News [Tuesday, February 11th, 2020]

Good morning traders and investors of the StockMarket sub! Welcome to Tuesday. Here is your pre-market news this AM-

(CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE FULL SOURCE!)

Today's Top Headlines for Tuesday, February 11th, 2020

STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:

(CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!)

YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!)

TODAY'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!)

YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!)

THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)

EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)

YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!)

YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!)

TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #2!)

THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING TICKERS:

  • MYO
  • FB
  • UAA
  • UBS
  • MA
  • MSFT
  • NVDA
  • WORK
  • HAS
  • TMUS

THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:

(source: cnbc.com)
Under Armour (UAA) – The athletic apparel maker reported an overall loss for the quarter, and warned of a negative sale impact from the coronavirus. The company also said it is assessing a possible 2020 restructuring.

STOCK SYMBOL: UAA

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
AutoNation (AN) – The nation’s largest car retailer beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines for the fourth quarter, with results boosted by higher demand for pre-owned vehicles.

STOCK SYMBOL: AN

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Hasbro (HAS) – The toymaker reported a quarterly profit of $1.24 per share, well above the consensus estimate of 91 cents a share. Sales fell short of Street forecasts, however, but Hasbro’s bottom line got a boost from toys related to Disney’s “Frozen 2” and “Star Wars” movies.

STOCK SYMBOL: HAS

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Hilton Worldwide (HLT) – The hotel operator earned $1.00 per share for the fourth quarter, 4 cents a share above estimates. Revenue also beat forecasts. Hilton’s 2020 earnings outlook was below analysts’ forecasts, however, and the company said the outlook does not include possible coronavirus impact.

STOCK SYMBOL: HLT

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
T-Mobile US (TMUS), Sprint (S) – The mobile service providers are expected to win the approval of a federal judge for their $26 billion merger deal today, according to sources. That would end an effort by state attorneys general to block the combination of the third- and fourth-largest wireless carriers.

STOCK SYMBOL: TMUS

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

STOCK SYMBOL: S

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Slack Technologies (WORK) – Slack said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that IBM (IBM) had been the messaging platform’s largest customer for several years and had expanded its use of Slack over that time. The statement was issued in response to an earlier report that a new deal had been struck that made IBM Slack’s largest customer, which had sent the stock surging in the regular session Monday.

STOCK SYMBOL: WORK

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
*Callaway Golf (ELY) *– Callaway lost 26 cents per share for its fourth quarter, wider than the 23 cents a share loss that analysts were expecting. The golf club maker reported better-than-expected revenue but said the coronavirus will have a negative impact in terms of both sales in Asia and on supplies.

STOCK SYMBOL: ELY

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
ViacomCBS (VIACA) – ViacomCBS unit CBS Sports has struck a deal with sports betting company William Hill, allowing William Hill to seek new customers among the CBS Sports audience. William Hill would seek to get CBS Sports users to download its app and deposit money in betting accounts.

STOCK SYMBOL: VIAC

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
XPO Logistics (XPO) – XPO beat estimates by 10 cents a share, with adjusted quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share. The transportation and delivery company’s revenue came fall below analysts’ forecasts, however. XPO also announced the appointment of a new chief financial officer.

STOCK SYMBOL: XPO

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Boston Beer (SAM) – Boston Beer was upgraded to “outperform” from “neutral” at Credit Suisse, which points to the company’s increasing involvement in the hard seltzer market. Credit Suisse also increased its price target on the beer brewer’s stock to $525 per share from $400.

STOCK SYMBOL: SAM

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

FULL DISCLOSURE:

bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk. bigbear0083 is an admin at the financial forums Stockaholics.net where this content was originally posted.

DISCUSS!

What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at StockMarket?

I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Tuesday, February 11th, 2020! :)

submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Closing Line Value Pt 1

Alright gang – today I’m going to talk about Closing Line Value (CLV): 1) what it is, 2) how to measure it, 3) why it’s useful and 4) ultimately why it’s flawed. This seems to be a polarizing topic so I’m expecting some disagreement and backlash.
I’ll cover 1) and 2) in today’s post and 3) and 4) tomorrow in Part II.
Closing Line Value
For those of you who are new to sports betting, the “Closing Line” is the line/odds of a game when the market for a game closes (i.e. just prior to kickoff/first pitch/tip off, etc.). Closing Line Value (CLV) is simply a comparison between 1) the line/odds that your bet was placed at and 2) the Closing Line.
The theory behind CLV is that if you’re getting a line better than what is offered at the close of the market, that’s generally a good thing. Simple example: you bet the Yankees at -125 and they closed at -150. You got positive CLV. Congrats!
Measuring CLV
Unfortunately, there is no standard approach to measuring CLV.
The Casual Approach: Casually, folks would say you got “25 cents” of CLV. Clearly this is a good thing, as a $100 bet at -125 would win $80, while a $100 bet at -150 would only win $67.
The Win Probability Approach: To get slightly more technical, we can compare the breakeven win probability of your bet at -125 vs the closing line of -150. The breakeven win probability of -150 is 60.0% while the breakeven win probability of -125 is 55.6%. The difference of 4.4% in breakeven win probability is another way to quote your CLV.
The Expected Value Approach: A third approach is to measure CLV based on the expected value of the bet. If you made a bet at a breakeven probability of 55.6% and the closing breakeven probability is 60.0%, you could say that “price” of your bet increased from 55.6% to 60.0% (increase of 4.4%). Therefore your “return” (increase in value) was 4.4% / 55.6% = 8.0%.
Removing Vig
Some people prefer to review their CLV absent the book’s vig. To make this adjustment, we simply remove the half of the vig for that bet (we assume half the vig is charged on both sides of the bet).
Assuming a standard 10-cent baseball line (+140/-150) we would have a closing vig of 1.6%. Our no-vig CLV measurements would be as follows:
The Casual Approach: With a closing line of +140/-150, we estimate that the “fair” price of the favorite is -145. Thus, a comparison of your bet at -125 and the fair price of -145 would only yield “20 cents” of CLV.
The Win Probability Approach: Subtracting half the vig from our breakeven win probability yields a no-vig CLV of 3.6% (4.4% - 0.8%).
The Expected Value Approach: The closing breakeven probability of -145 is 59.2% so the “price” of your bet increased from 55.6% to 59.2% (increase of 3.6%). Therefore your “return” (increase in value) was 3.6% / 55.6% = 6.5%.
While you’re free to measure CLV however you feel like it, theoretically the no-vig expected value approach should best estimate your long-term return based on CLV.
CLV for Point Spread and Totals
To measure CLV for points spreads or totals using the Win Probability Approach or the Expected Value Approach, you need to estimate the push probabilities of the numbers that were crossed (i.e. if you bet -2.5/-110 and the market closed at -3.5/-110, you crossed the 3). You can then compare your bet with the implied “fair” moneyline of your bet based on the closing line. Referencing our NCAAB half point price of 9 cents on the 3, we estimate -2.5/-128 to be the equivalent of -3.5/-110. You can then calculate your CLV just as you had before.
Tomorrow's discussion: how CLV can be useful, but is ultimately a flawed metric
submitted by cleatstreet to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Today's Pre-Market News [Tuesday, February 11th, 2020]

Good morning traders and investors of the stocks sub! Welcome to Tuesday. Here is your pre-market news this AM-

Today's Top Headlines for Tuesday, February 11th, 2020

STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:

(CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!)

YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!)

TODAY'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!)

YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!)

THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:

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EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:

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YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:

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YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:

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TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:

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THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING TICKERS:

  • MYO
  • FB
  • UAA
  • UBS
  • MA
  • MSFT
  • NVDA
  • WORK
  • HAS
  • TMUS

THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:

(source: cnbc.com)
Under Armour (UAA) – The athletic apparel maker reported an overall loss for the quarter, and warned of a negative sale impact from the coronavirus. The company also said it is assessing a possible 2020 restructuring.

STOCK SYMBOL: UAA

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AutoNation (AN) – The nation’s largest car retailer beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines for the fourth quarter, with results boosted by higher demand for pre-owned vehicles.

STOCK SYMBOL: AN

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Hasbro (HAS) – The toymaker reported a quarterly profit of $1.24 per share, well above the consensus estimate of 91 cents a share. Sales fell short of Street forecasts, however, but Hasbro’s bottom line got a boost from toys related to Disney’s “Frozen 2” and “Star Wars” movies.

STOCK SYMBOL: HAS

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Hilton Worldwide (HLT) – The hotel operator earned $1.00 per share for the fourth quarter, 4 cents a share above estimates. Revenue also beat forecasts. Hilton’s 2020 earnings outlook was below analysts’ forecasts, however, and the company said the outlook does not include possible coronavirus impact.

STOCK SYMBOL: HLT

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T-Mobile US (TMUS), Sprint (S) – The mobile service providers are expected to win the approval of a federal judge for their $26 billion merger deal today, according to sources. That would end an effort by state attorneys general to block the combination of the third- and fourth-largest wireless carriers.

STOCK SYMBOL: TMUS

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STOCK SYMBOL: S

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Slack Technologies (WORK) – Slack said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that IBM (IBM) had been the messaging platform’s largest customer for several years and had expanded its use of Slack over that time. The statement was issued in response to an earlier report that a new deal had been struck that made IBM Slack’s largest customer, which had sent the stock surging in the regular session Monday.

STOCK SYMBOL: WORK

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*Callaway Golf (ELY) *– Callaway lost 26 cents per share for its fourth quarter, wider than the 23 cents a share loss that analysts were expecting. The golf club maker reported better-than-expected revenue but said the coronavirus will have a negative impact in terms of both sales in Asia and on supplies.

STOCK SYMBOL: ELY

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ViacomCBS (VIACA) – ViacomCBS unit CBS Sports has struck a deal with sports betting company William Hill, allowing William Hill to seek new customers among the CBS Sports audience. William Hill would seek to get CBS Sports users to download its app and deposit money in betting accounts.

STOCK SYMBOL: VIAC

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XPO Logistics (XPO) – XPO beat estimates by 10 cents a share, with adjusted quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share. The transportation and delivery company’s revenue came fall below analysts’ forecasts, however. XPO also announced the appointment of a new chief financial officer.

STOCK SYMBOL: XPO

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Boston Beer (SAM) – Boston Beer was upgraded to “outperform” from “neutral” at Credit Suisse, which points to the company’s increasing involvement in the hard seltzer market. Credit Suisse also increased its price target on the beer brewer’s stock to $525 per share from $400.

STOCK SYMBOL: SAM

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DISCUSS!

What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at stocks?

I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Tuesday, February 11th, 2020! :)

submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]

WORK In prog

On our MTV Challenge Accepted podcast (link in bold) we have a segment where we discuss this question. Whose stock went up? Whose stock went down? Here were our winners and losers this week.
STOCK UP
The GOAT
A no brainer and "too obvious" pick, but Johnny Bananas deserves some love anyway. Did he actually need the 7th win to secure his place as the Greatest of All Time? Not really, no. There's no rival that's even close in terms of that overall resume. Still, that's what the great ones do -- they invent reasons to have a chip on their shoulder and to stay locked in and motivated. Michael Jordan did that, Tom Brady does that, and Bananas followed suit. His emotional investment in this season felt genuine. Losing the last few seasons has taken a toil on him, but he found redemption here. Kudos to him.
Jenny
Again, we won't dwell on the winner, but Jenny needs some praise. She doesn't have the resume to be in the GOAT discussions herself yet, but we couldn't help but wonder: where does this particular season stack up on the greatest of all time? Jenny dominated two eliminations, and handedly won the finals as well. She kicked ass from top to bottom this year. It reminded us of Emily (Schromm), who looked a notch above the female competitors on some of her seasons.
Of course, Emily hasn't made The Challenge a career, which opens the door for a female GOAT to break through. Rachel (Robinson) and Cara Maria have an argument based on longevity and resume. Emily and Evelyn have an argument based on peak performance. Now, Jenny can start to make her case. She legitimately has GOAT potential if she comes back again and again and again and rattles off 3-4 title wins. In a sense, she's The Challenge's version of Patrick Mahomes. She got her first ring, and the sky is the limit from here.
Cory
Cory didn't win -- and he didn't even finish 2nd either. That said, no one surprised us more than Cory in this Final.
Coming into the Final, we pegged Cory as the biggest underdog among the men. We'd simply seen him fade too many times before -- presumably as a result of lower-leg injuries in the past. Yet, here he was, performing well throughout. He claimed he was born and raised in the snow a la Bane in the Darkness, and he delivered on that. He won the first leg, and came on strong in the season leg as well. The math checkpoint threw him off a little, but in terms of the pure speed challenges, he ranked right up there at the top. Overall, Cory won $0, but he fared well and gave us hope that he's going to be a legitimate contender in the future.
STOCK DOWN
Fessy
Fessy had been an absolute beast all season long, but we all knew this Final would be the wild card. The great unknown. After all, we've seen these big dogs go in different directions come Final time. Which version would Fessy be? Could he finish the job and dominate throughout -- a la Landon? Or would he gas out a la Zach or early season Laurel?
Turns out: he gassed out. Badly. Out of the 4 men who ended the Final, he finished dead last.
To be fair to Fessy, it's not easy to be a bigger guy in these endurance challenges. Muscles actually utilize a lot of oxygen, so big dudes tend to wear down (especially at high altitudes.) There's a reason that marathon runners don't look like Hulk Hogan, after all.
I'd also wonder whether Fessy's football background came back to bite him here. Football players are great athletes, but they train for quick BURSTS of speed -- going 10 yards, 20 yards a time -- with breaks and huddles in between. They don't have to train in long-distance endurance the same way a marathon runner, or cyclist, or even a boxer would. The Challenge Final always puts such an emphasis on endurance (too much so, in my mind) that it makes it very difficult for a bulky football player to win.
Still, that's going to be a hard hurdle for Fessy to overcome. He can try to slim down like Zach has, but it's always going to be an uphill battle for a naturally big dude to compete with the types of Jordan Wisely and other slimmer and smaller runners.
Dr. Bayleigh
Unlike Fessy, Melissa and Bayleigh came into the Final as severe underdog. They were a few notches below Kaycee, and about a thousand notches below Jenny. With no prize for 2nd or 3rd, they really had no motivation to try hard and finish (aside from, ya know, pride.)
Melissa broke, and quit. And given what we know about her circumstances, it's hard to blame her. There was probably a reason that she didn't feel at her best and didn't think she could tough it out through the Final. But in a way, we give her credit for that. She knew her limits, and didn't apologize for them. As she said, she simply didn't have it in her to win.
Meanwhile, Bayleigh did the same, without the same culpability and self-awareness. Certainly, there's a chance that she legitimately sprained her MCL, but it's hard to imagine that she could diagnose that herself. Time and time again, we saw the medics give her the go-ahead to continue, unless she wanted to quit. It felt like her choice. And sure enough, she did. As Cory mentioned, she quit only after learning that she couldn't sleep inside the compound, which made her decision (and sudden MCL flareup) feel less genuine.
[OC] Which awards are locked in? Which are still up for debate? a glance through the odds and campaigns in each category
It feels like it's been 5 years since we've seen actual NBA basketball, which may make awards debates and campaigns more difficult. Wait, who was playing well again...? Dennis Schroder? Seriously? Huh. Okay then.
As we soldier back into the bubble, there's a risk that awards voters will forget about that early part of the season (aka the vast majority) and fall victim to recency bias. Given that, we wanted to glance through the major races and determine which -- if any -- awards may still be in debate.
For this exercise, I'm using the current odds as listed by an online betting site (bovada). Note: the percentages do NOT add up to 100% because online betting sites like your money.
MVP
Giannis Antetokounmpo: - 3500 (97%)
LeBron James: +600 (14%)
is the race over?
This betting site heavily favors Giannis Antetokounmpo, although some other metrics have it closer than that. Basketball-reference's MVP tracker lists Giannis at 50.7% and LeBron at 17.3%.
I'm more inclined to believe the latter and that LeBron James would be closer to 15-20% odds. No doubt, Giannis is a worthy MVP. He's been a dominant force (again) for the top statistical team in the league (again.) He's racking up 30-14-6 in only 30.9 minutes per game. In most circumstances, he'd win this award in a walk.
That said, you can never discount "narrative," and LeBron James has a few of those going for him. The Lakers have vaulted up to the # 1 seed in the West, outperforming preseason expectations. James has played exceptionally well, and even led the league in assists. Partly because of that, James' camp has successfully gotten the media to buy into the storyline that he made a sudden transition to point guard (ya know, because he had always deferred to his point guards like Mo Williams and Mario Chalmers in the past...)
More than that, James may benefit from this strange corona-bubble. He's been a leading advocate for continuing on, and as always, players tend to follow his lead. I can see more than a few media members giving James an MVP vote for "saving the season." All in all, I expect this vote to be closer than it should be (and I expect poor James Harden to finish well behind where he should as well.)
So James will get some votes, but can he actually win the award? I wouldn't rule it out. The Lakers are currently 3 games behind the Bucks for the # 1 overall seed. It's hard to imagine Milwaukee losing enough to slip, but it's not Wallace Shawn inconceivable either. If the Lakers somehow manage to catch them, then I actually think LeBron will win MVP. Of course, it's more likely the Bucks will hang onto the # 1 seed, and Giannis will hang onto MVP. But again, I don't think it's a stone cold lock -- yet.
Rookie of the Year
Ja Morant: - 3500 (97%)
Zion Williamson: +850 (11%)
is the race over?
It should be. Zion Williamson is freakin' amazing, but he's played 19 games so far. That's 40 less than Ja Morant, who has played stellar ball for a rookie from a small school, and somehow led the Memphis Grizzlies to the 8th seed.
Still, we can't rule out the risk of recency bias and a wild overreaction from the media. Williamson has a chance to lead the Pelicans up to the 9th spot, at which point they'd play Morant's Grizzlies. If Williamson can lead New Orleans to two victories over Memphis in a row -- and thus leapfrog them in the standings -- then it's very feasible the media would throw their vote his way. The media (and the league as a whole) tends to like this Zion fella, if you haven't noticed.
Sixth Man
Dennis Schroder: - 220 (69%)
Montrezl Harrell: +190 (34%)
Lou Williams: +450 (18%)
Derrick Rose: +3000 (3%)
is the race over?
Simply put: no. It's still a three-man race in my book. The Clippers' Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell finished 1-2 last season, and are right back in the thick of things this year. Among the two, it's harder to justify Williams' winning for the third season in a row. He hasn't played as well as last year, and hasn't been as big of a focal point for the Clippers' game plan. He hasn't looked as engaged this season, and even debated missing the bubble.
With Sweet Lou taking a slight step back, it's opened the door for Dennis Schroder. He's having a career season in terms of efficiency. In fact, it's hard to understate his jump this year. In his six previous season, his career high TS% was only 53.3%. This season? He's vaulted up to 57.3%. The question is: have enough voters noticed? OKC has been a feel-good story this year, but Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tend to get the most credit for that.
Overall, I wouldn't be surprised if voters get lazy and just fall back on the highest scorer among the three. And even by those standards, the race is wide open. Schroder is at 19.0 PPG, Williams is at 18.7 PPG, and Harrell is at 18.6 PPG. A strong (or bad) week or two in the bubble may tilt this race in any direction.
Defensive Player of the Year
Giannis Antetokounmpo: -500 (83%)
Anthony Davis: +200 (33%)
Rudy Gobert: +2800 (3%)
is the race over?
Even among savvy and analytically-inclined media members, "defense" is still something of a mystery to quantify. We see a lot of herd mentality emerge for DPOY voting, with candidates needing to stake their claim early on and campaign all season long.
In terms of storylines and narratives, it felt like Anthony Davis had the early momentum. He's a wrecking ball (1.5 steals, 2.4 blocks) who helped improve the Lakers' defense from # 12 to # 3 this season. Still, Giannis Antetokounmpo has steadily built his case for a double MVP + DPOY, and currently ranks as the betting favorite on this site.
Personally, I believe it's a closer race than these numbers suggest. At the same time, I'm not sure what their play in the bubble is going to do about it. More likely, it'll be an influential media piece (like Zach Lowe pushing for Marc Gasol) that may get voters ushering on one side or another.
Most Improved
Bam Adebayo: -150 (60%)
Brandon Ingram: +250 (29%)
Luke Doncic: +500 (17%)
Jayson Tatum: +900 (10%)
Devonte Graham: +1000 (9%)
is the race over?
Again, this race feels "too close to call" to me. John King and David Chalian may be tallying up the counties all night long.
Earlier this season, I looked back at previous Most Improved winners and tried to find some common threads. On average, the winner improved from 11.7 PPG to 19.6 PPG (roughly +8 points.)
Historically speaking, Brandon Ingram and Jayson Tatum fit close to those templates. Ingram has swelled from 18.3 PPG to 24.3 PPG in his first season in New Orleans (+6). Tatum has made an even bigger leap, going from 15.7 PPG to 23.6 PPG (essentially our exact +8). Of the two, I may lean more to Ingram myself. Tatum's taking more shots and more threes, but he was already considered a proven star prior to this. Ingram had been more of a question mark before, but has now established himself as a potential max player. The key for him has been an improved FT%. In his first three seasons, he shot 62%, 68%, and 68% from the line. This year, he's up to 86%. That's major progress, and represents a massive difference in his efficiency "floor." Still, you wonder if Ingram's momentum peaked too early. Ever since Zion Williamson came back, it feels like Ingram has been an afterthought in the media.
Conversely, Bam Adebayo's reputation within the media is still surging. He's been a major reason for the Miami Heat's success this year, nearly doubling from 8.9 PPG to 16.2 PPG (+7.3 overall.) He's also doubled his assists (from 2.2 to 5.1). If you wanted to nitpick Adebayo's candidacy, you may suggest he was pretty darn good already. A lot of the statistical upswing comes from an increase in minutes, from 23.3 to 34.4 this year.
Overall, I'd say Abebayo is the favorite, but I wouldn't lock it in yet. A player like Brandon Ingram could get hot and have a few 40 point games, at which point the momentum may swing back in his favor.
When anthropology professors
99 cent store free agents: Point Guards
The NBA offseason is always filled with exciting storylines like star free agents and blockbuster trades.
But rather than dwell on the obvious, this series intends to do the opposite: focus on the lower-profile free agents who may have some value to teams. No NBA player is actually "99 Cents," of course, but these are all players who may be bargains based on their perceived market.
This "99 Cent Store" series has been open for business for the last two offseasons. In the past, we've highlighted names like Fred VanVleet (pre breakout), Christian Wood, and Davis Bertans. Not all of the items turn out to be gems (is Nerlens Noel still not a DPOY candidate yet?), but the returns have been largely positive so far. Let's see if we can keep that momentum going this season.
99 cent store
Langston Galloway, Detroit Pistons, UFA, 28 years old
In last year's 99 Cent Store, we hyped up Seth Curry (Steph's brother) as a possible value free agent. Seth didn't have the size and skill set of a traditional point guard, but the NBA isn't always craving traditional point guards these days. A lot of star SGs, SFs, PFs, and even Cs have the ball in their hands, so teams need to fill the court with a supporting cast that can complement them and provide spacing. Effectively an undersized SG, Seth's excellent shooting appeared to be a perfect complement to a ball-dominant superstar. Seth ended up going to Dallas on a moderate contract, and had a strong season for them in that role.
For those same reasons, we'd recommend Langston Galloway as a potential bargain add. We're not going to suggest that Galloway is as good as Seth Curry as a player or as a shooter, but his skill set is related. He's not Steph Curry -- he's not Seth Curry -- he's on the opposite side of the family tree. He's like the random third cousin who shows up at the barbecue and hogs all the mac n' cheese. Still, if he got the address, then he must have some relation to the family we know and love.
Galloway would share some DNA in the sense that he's also a "point guard" who's more of an undersized shooting guard by nature. He doesn't have the ball skills or playmaking to run an offense. At all. However, he can be effective if operating as a 3+D guard. Players like Patrick Beverly and George Hill are the premium prototypes of that skill set, and Galloway is the 99 Cent store generic brand. He's an above-average as a shooter (36.7% from three for his career), and above-average as a defender, where his 6'8" wingspan helps his cause. And while it feels like Galloway has been around forever, he's still only 28 years old. He probably has 2-3 years left of usefulness in his role. There may be 1 or 2 teams that would start Langston Galloway (in a limited role), but almost every team could use him as part of the rotation.
possible fits
HOU. Russell Westbrook and James Harden are ball dominant and salary-cap dominant players, making depth a constant struggle for the team. Backup PG Austin Rivers can probably get more money than he's due on his player option ($2.4M) even in a COVID-market, possibly creating another hole. Galloway would make sense as a replacement here, seeing as how he'd be able to play in a lineup with either Westbrook or Harden.
LAL. Avery Bradley may be skipping the playoffs, but there's still a chance the Lakers can win the title with some combination of Alex Caruso and Rajon Rondo at PG anyway. But what happens if it doesn't work out? What happens if Bradley and Rondo (both of whom have player options) get shuffled out? In that case, Galloway and Caruso could tag-team and provide a decent and low-cost 3+D guard spot for next year.
MIN. The Timberwolves tried the "no PG offense" for a majority of the season, and it didn't work out so hot. Now, they'll be handing the reins over to D'Angelo Russell full time. Galloway could be a nice backup for Russell; the two would have enough size to play some minutes alongside each other as well. You have to figure Gersson Rosas will prioritize shooters like Galloway as well. The team wants to play MoreyBall (top 3 in 3PA), but doesn't have the personnel yet to pull it off (bottom 3 in 3P%).
Yogi Ferrell, Sacramento Kings, UFA, 27 years old
He may be fairly anonymous now, but there was a time when the name "Yogi Ferrell" was a big deal in college basketball. The bluechip recruit immediately stepped into the starting lineup for Tom Crean's Indiana Hoosiers, helping to lead the team to a # 1 seed that first year on campus. But then a funny thing happened: the college star actually stayed in college. Ferrell would go on to play all 4 years (starting 137 of 137 games) for Indiana.
Through it, Ferrell developed the negative narrative that he was a "college player." Only 6'0" with average length and athleticism, he didn't have the look of a future pro. The NBA dismissed him, leading him to get undrafted. He's hung around since then, but his buzz has dwindled and dwindled. He played this past season as Sacramento's 3rd PG, only logging 11 minutes per game. Maybe they were right -- maybe he was never cut out for the NBA.
Then again... are we sure about that? Ferrell may not be the prototype, but he still has some virtues. Among those strengths: "basketball." He's a savvy, steady field general who has an above-average shot. He's hit 36.5% from three and 83.8% from the line over the course of his NBA career. He's not going to carry the load (14-4-4 per 36 minutes), but he's not going to rock the boat either. In fact, he only averages 1.5 turnovers per 36.
The concern with a player like Ferrell would be his limited size and athleticism, a combo that tends to translate into awful defense. But again, we haven't seen much evidence of that. Effort and basketball IQ can help overcome athletic weaknesses, and that appears to be the case with Ferrell. Limitations and all, Ferrell has registered only a -0.2 defensive box plus/minus.
Overall, this profile doesn't suggest any huge upside or any hidden "star" potential. But at the end of the day, this store isn't about star potential -- it's about value. Ferrell is a high-end third PG who can potentially be a true # 2. He'd make sense on a team like Orlando as a potential replacement for their own steady eddie backup D.J. Augustin (also a free agent.)
clearance rack
Gary Payton II, Washington Wizards, UFA, 27 years old
On paper, you may wonder why Gary Payton II wasn't a bigger deal entering the NBA Draft. After all, we're talking about the son of an NBA superstar who had been productive in college. In his last season at Oregon State, he averaged 16.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, 7.8 assists, and 2.5 steals (!) How the heck did someone with that pedigree go undrafted?
Unfortunately for Payton, two factors worked against him. For one, he was a poor shooter. Second, he was "over-aged." After spending some time in community college with Jeff Winger and Dean Pelton, Payton would be a 24-year-old rookie, a major knock against him and his perceived upside. That criticism may have proven apt; Payton has not improved as much as a young pup may have. His three-point shooting has sagged around 25-30%, a major problem in today's NBA. In general, he's a below-average offensive player, averaging just 10-6-4 per 36 minutes.
That said, Payton does have some virtues on the other end. He's not quite "The Glove" (basketball-reference even dubs his official nickname "The Mitten"), but he's definitely a good defender. He's 6'3" with a 6'8" wingspan, and has proven to have sticky hands himself. After averaging 2.8 steals over two years at OSU, he's at 2.2 per 36 in the NBA. He makes some sense when paired together with a ball-dominant SG like a James Harden or Devin Booker or Bradley Beal. No, we're not talking about as a starter, or even as a lead backup, but as a 3rd PG who can add a different skill set to a bench. In that context, he's worth a roster spot. Is a 13th man not worth reading about to you? Well then, get the F out of our store, ya snob! This is what the 99 Cent Store is all about.
featured item
E'Twaun Moore, New Orleans Pelicans, UFA, 31 years old
Collectively, NBA fans scratched their heads in confusion when the New Orleans Pelicans doled out $8.5M a year for anonymous E'Twaun Moore. After all, this was an unheralded a player, a R2 draft pick, a player who hadn't cracked 10 PPG in any of his first six seasons in the league. For all we knew, he was an NBA2k generated player.
Three years later, the contract doesn't look much better. Moore got buried this past season in a crowded Pelicans lineup, averaging only 18.8 minutes per game. He doesn't appear to be a part of the franchise's future plans at all. Moore will be tossed out into the darkness, left with no home, and perhaps no chance of matching that $8M salary ever again.
However, we have to be mindful as NBA fans not to lump in an "overpaid" player as a synonym for a "bad" player. Someone like Tobias Harris may not be worth his salary, but he's still a good starter. On a lower level, E'Twaun Moore may be the same way. Perhaps he's not worth $8-10M a year, but he's actually a solid addition to a rotation (even if the Pelicans squeezed him out.)
Moore's primary virtue is as a 3+D wing. At first glance he's not big enough for that role at 6'4", but he's aided by a pelican-like wingspan that stretches to near 6'10". He's not a great defender (now at age 31), but he's passable at both the SG and SF spots. Offensively, he'll help you as a spacer. He's hit on 39.0% of his threes for his career, and had actually gotten up to 42% and 43% the prior two seasons before he lost some rhythm this season.
That combination of skills makes Moore a good rotation player, and perhaps even a low-end starter on the right team. I wouldn't expect him to get "overpaid" again, but that's precisely what earns him a place in our store. He's a potential bargain buy right now.
possible fits
BKN. SG Joe Harris is an excellent shooter, but he's also a free agent. Will the Nets pony up to keep him around? Or will he be jettisoned like others from the pre KD-Kyrie era? If he is, then E'Twaun Moore makes sense as a cheap replacement.
MIL. The shooting guard spot is the biggest question mark for the Bucks, and this offseason may add to the murkiness if Wes Matthews (player option) or Pat Connaughton (UFA) leave town. E'Twaun Moore would be a sensible filler, and platoon with Donte DiVincenzo.
SA. Do Gregg Popovich and the Spurs want to contend for the playoffs in 2020-21? Do they want to blow it up? TBD. But if their intention is to go for that 8th seed again, Moore may be an upgrade on smaller Bryn Forbes, who struggles on the defensive end.
99 cent store
Shaquille Harrison, Chicago Bulls, UFA, 26 years old
Coaches and front offices love to tout that "defense is half the game!" That is, until it's time to actually pay a defensive player. Or draft a defensive player. Or even invite a defensive player onto the roster for a fully guaranteed contract.
Shaq Harrison has been dealing with that struggle for his entire professional career. Coming out of Tulsa, Harrison always had the chops defensively. He's long and agile enough to guard 1s and 2s and even some 3s. The trouble is: shooting was never his strong suit. Even as a senior, he only hit 19.5% from deep in the NCAA. Yikes. That's a surefire recipe to go "undrafted," which is exactly what Harrison did.
Since then, Harrison has been trying to improve his shot, the key for him to stick on an NBA roster. This past season, we've started to see some glimmers of progress there. He shot a career-high 38.1% from three, and a career-high 78.0% from the line. Now to be fair, those were both extremely small sample sizes (16-42 from three, 39-50 from the line), but it's still encouraging nonetheless. Because if Harrison can become a passable shooter, then his defensive abilities give him inherent value. He's legitimately one of the better perimeter defenders in the league. ESPN's real plus/minus listed his impact as a +2.5 on defense, which ranked as the 9th best player in the entire NBA (out of 503 qualifiers.) If a coaching staff feels confident in their player development and their shooting coaches, then Harrison would be an intriguing investment to make.
clearance rack
John Konchar, Memphis Grizzlies, 24 years old
Last year, I included Philadelphia PG-SG Shake Milton in this column, causing Sixers fans to riot and demand that I mention the team had the right to extend his two-way contract if they wanted. The team did, and Milton will prove to be a bargain for them over the next few years. Similarly, the Memphis Grizzlies will have that opportunity to keep two-way player John Konchar on the team should they want. But if they don't, I'd be eyeing Konchar as a possible roster addition.
No doubt, there are reasons to doubt John Konchar's NBA prospects. He comes from a school that's so small that they didn't even know what to name it (shifting a few times before settling on "Purdue Fort Wayne"). And at the risk of being politically incorrect, we should also mention that he's white. NBA GMs don't exactly sit up and salivate when they see an undersized (6'5") white wing player walk into the gym.
All that said, Konchar has been productive time and time again. As you'd expect, he can hit the three pointer. But what's most intriguing about Konchar is his playing strength. He may be only 6'5" (6'7" wingspan) but he plays much bigger than that. As a college senior, he grabbed 8.5 rebounds a game and blocked 0.9 shots to boot. He also converted 62.9% of his field goals in two-point range. It may have been low level competition, but he flat-out bullied his opponents.
Naturally you'd presume: there's no way he can do that in the pros! But so far, so good. Konchar put up similar numbers in the G-League this season, hitting 56.5% from the field and grabbing 8.3 rebounds per game (in 30 minutes a night.) From there, you'd presume: there's no way he can do that in the actual NBA! Well, in his 160 minutes of NBA action, Konchar shot 65.7% from the field and averaged 9.9 rebounds per 36 minutes.
Clearly, it's too early to take this as gospel. But eventually, we're going to have to presume something else: maybe this dude is actually good. If I ran an NBA team, I'd want to run that experiment with Konchar in our uniform and not someone else's.
99 cent store
Josh Jackson, Memphis Grizzlies, UFA, 23 years old
Like most of us on this sub, I have moments when I watch the NBA, watch the roster moves, watch the draft, and think: I could do that. Not play, of course, but perhaps build a team and winning roster. I've had a long and successful career in fantasy sports, so naturally a GM job would be the logical next step.
The 2017 NBA Draft was one of those moments for me. Prior to the draft, I wrote a few posts on here, explaining why consensus top prospect Markelle Fultz wouldn't have been my personal # 1 pick. Clearly, I am a genius operating on a higher plane than the Bryan Colangelos of the world. Unfortunately, the alternative prospect that I advocated for wasn't Jayson Tatum. Or De'Aaron Fox. Or even Lonzo Ball. Instead, I thought the # 1 prospect in the class was... Josh Jackson. Whoops. Turns out, Jackson became an even bigger bust than Fultz (for his original team), causing the Phoenix Suns to dump him and wash their hands clean. Turns out: I have no clue what I'm talking about after all.
But while I may have given up on my hidden genius, I'm still not ready to give up on Josh Jackson as a player. After all, no one expected Jackson to be a finished product. Back at Kansas, his shot looked funky and in need of an overhaul. Still, he had athleticism, defensive tenacity, and flashed some ball skills and passing ability. All in all, I thought he may develop into a player in the mold of a Jimmy Butler in time.
Unfortunately, his NBA career stumbled out of the gates. If you're going to be the next Jimmy Butler, you need to work at it. Jimmy Butler may be a polarizing media presence, but he's undoubtedly a hard worker. In contrast, Josh Jackson had some issues off the court that made you doubt his dedication. His shooting hadn't improved much either. Even now, he hit on only 31.9% of his threes (29.8% career.)
Still, if you're a stubborn Jackson optimist like I am, then you can see some flashes of progress here. After being humbled by a trip to the G-League and a trade to Memphis, Jackson has started to be effective again. This past season for the Grizzlies, he averaged 19.0 PPG, 5.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 steals, and 0.9 blocks per 36 minutes. He's never going to be Kawhi Leonard as a shooter, but there are ways he can be effective offensively. He converted 77.5% of his field goals inside (0-3 feet), which was up from 55% in the past, showing how improved strength and bulk may aid his game. He also shot 34.8% on corner threes -- still below-average, but better than before.
So where do we go from here? What can Josh Jackson become? If he continues to work on his craft without any problems behind the scenes, he looks like a good prospect again. After all, this is a kid who's still 23 (younger than rookie teammate Brandon Clarke.) Maybe it's too optimistic to think he can be the next Jimmy Butler, but maybe he can be a solid starter in the mold of a young Wilson Chandler. There's still some risk involved here, but it's worth an investment and gamble in the right circumstance (and for the right price.)
possible fits
MEM. Jackson staying in Memphis is the most likely scenario. While the Grizzlies are in the 8th seed right now, they're still a young team. Ja Morant is 20. Jaren Jackson in 20. Jackson can fit into their timeline. The only question here is whether they already have a similar (and better) player in house in Justise Winslow.
CLE. The Memphis Grizzlies are a good young team. The Cavs are a bad young team. They need to add some more talent, especially at the wing. In theory, Jackson would be a nice complement to their undersized bomber guards like Darius Garland and Collin Sexton.
CHA. The Hornets need to find a star, somehow, some way. It's unlikely Josh Jackson becomes that star, but it's worth a shot. He's comparable to current forward Miles Bridges in terms of his worth/upside.
Daulton Hommes, San Antonio Spurs, 23 years old
Marial Shayok, Philadelphia 76ers, 24 years old
NBA general managers have a lot in common with Chris D'Elia: they like 'em young! They tend to dismiss college veterans as "over-aged" and salivate over teenagers instead. And to be fair, there's some logic there. A 22 or 23-year-old rookie likely doesn't have as much upside as a 19 or 20 year old. At the same time, not every NBA players needs to ooze with Giannis Antetokounmpo upside. Sometimes, you set the bar lower; you're just looking for a serviceable role player.
To my eye, Philadelphia's Marial Shayok is trending in that direction. He spent 5 years at college (gross!) -- the first 3 at Virginia, before transferring and playing for Iowa State in 2018-19. That last season, Shayok looked solid -- averaging 18.7 PPG with great shooting splits (50-39-88). The 6'6" wing also sported a 7'0" wingspan, which naturally makes you consider him as a potential 3+D prospect.
Still, the "age" issue prevented Shayok from going high -- landing at pick # 54 last season and earning only a two-way deal. That leverage puts the Sixers in the catbird seat here; they can bring Shayok back on a team-friendly deal, and likely will do just that after he played very well in the G-League. In fact, he averaged 27-7-5 per 36 minutes, hitting 36% from three and 89% from the line. Teams don't just let players like that go, especially when their depth is an issue already. However, if the Sixers decide to cast him aside, then Shayok should wash ashore on another team in a hurry.
Marvin Williams, Milwaukee Bucks, UFA, 34 years old
Chris Boucher, Toronto Raptors, RFA, 27 years old
Frank Kaminsky, Phoenix Suns, 27 years old
Bonzie Colson, 24 years old
Back in college at Notre Dame, Bonzie Colson felt like an anomaly. Here was a stocky 6'5" player who largely played as a smallball 5. He utilized his strength and wingspan (7'0") to bully opponents, averaging 19.7 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks as a senior.
Still... a 6'5" PF/C? You didn't play like that in the NBA.
Or do you...? The Houston Rockets are changing the paradigm with heavy minutes for P.J. Tucker (also 6'5") at center. Zion Williamson (6'6") will likely play a good amount of center as well for New Orleans. It may not ever be the norm, but it's not a ridiculous concept anymore. If you're an NBA team, it makes sense to at least have a lineup like that in your back pocket to break out in case of emergency.
Colson can capably fill that role (on the back-end of a roster) due to his natural savvy and his passable shooting (34% from 3 in the G-League.) Better still, he'd be dirt-cheap after some G-League and overseas stints. In fact, he may not cost much guaranteed money at all. If he shows up at camp in good shape, then there's a chance he sticks around. And let's be honest, the NBA -- and all of our lives -- are better off when there's at least one Bonzi/e around.
Nerlens Noel, Oklahoma City Thunder, 26 years old
Jakob Poelte, Mason Plumlee
Ekpe Udoh, 33 years old
Ivan Rabb, 23 years old
Langston Galloway, Detroit Pistons, UFA, 28 years old
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Today's Pre-Market News [Tuesday, February 11th, 2020]

Good morning traders and investors of the smallstreetbets sub! Welcome to Tuesday. Here is your pre-market news this AM-

Today's Top Headlines for Tuesday, February 11th, 2020

STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:

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YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:

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TODAY'S MARKET MAP:

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YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:

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TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:

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TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

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THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

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THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:

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THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:

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THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

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EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:

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EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:

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YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:

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YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:

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TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:

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THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING TICKERS:

  • MYO
  • FB
  • UAA
  • UBS
  • MA
  • MSFT
  • NVDA
  • WORK
  • HAS
  • TMUS

THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:

(source: cnbc.com)
Under Armour (UAA) – The athletic apparel maker reported an overall loss for the quarter, and warned of a negative sale impact from the coronavirus. The company also said it is assessing a possible 2020 restructuring.

STOCK SYMBOL: UAA

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AutoNation (AN) – The nation’s largest car retailer beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines for the fourth quarter, with results boosted by higher demand for pre-owned vehicles.

STOCK SYMBOL: AN

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Hasbro (HAS) – The toymaker reported a quarterly profit of $1.24 per share, well above the consensus estimate of 91 cents a share. Sales fell short of Street forecasts, however, but Hasbro’s bottom line got a boost from toys related to Disney’s “Frozen 2” and “Star Wars” movies.

STOCK SYMBOL: HAS

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Hilton Worldwide (HLT) – The hotel operator earned $1.00 per share for the fourth quarter, 4 cents a share above estimates. Revenue also beat forecasts. Hilton’s 2020 earnings outlook was below analysts’ forecasts, however, and the company said the outlook does not include possible coronavirus impact.

STOCK SYMBOL: HLT

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T-Mobile US (TMUS), Sprint (S) – The mobile service providers are expected to win the approval of a federal judge for their $26 billion merger deal today, according to sources. That would end an effort by state attorneys general to block the combination of the third- and fourth-largest wireless carriers.

STOCK SYMBOL: TMUS

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STOCK SYMBOL: S

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Slack Technologies (WORK) – Slack said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that IBM (IBM) had been the messaging platform’s largest customer for several years and had expanded its use of Slack over that time. The statement was issued in response to an earlier report that a new deal had been struck that made IBM Slack’s largest customer, which had sent the stock surging in the regular session Monday.

STOCK SYMBOL: WORK

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*Callaway Golf (ELY) *– Callaway lost 26 cents per share for its fourth quarter, wider than the 23 cents a share loss that analysts were expecting. The golf club maker reported better-than-expected revenue but said the coronavirus will have a negative impact in terms of both sales in Asia and on supplies.

STOCK SYMBOL: ELY

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ViacomCBS (VIACA) – ViacomCBS unit CBS Sports has struck a deal with sports betting company William Hill, allowing William Hill to seek new customers among the CBS Sports audience. William Hill would seek to get CBS Sports users to download its app and deposit money in betting accounts.

STOCK SYMBOL: VIAC

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XPO Logistics (XPO) – XPO beat estimates by 10 cents a share, with adjusted quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share. The transportation and delivery company’s revenue came fall below analysts’ forecasts, however. XPO also announced the appointment of a new chief financial officer.

STOCK SYMBOL: XPO

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Boston Beer (SAM) – Boston Beer was upgraded to “outperform” from “neutral” at Credit Suisse, which points to the company’s increasing involvement in the hard seltzer market. Credit Suisse also increased its price target on the beer brewer’s stock to $525 per share from $400.

STOCK SYMBOL: SAM

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DISCUSS!

What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at smallstreetbets?

I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Tuesday, February 11th, 2020! :)

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MEGA GUIDE to The International 2019 in Shanghai, China!

Comprehensive Guide for Shanghai TI9 Visitors

Heya /dota2, your resident bilingual Dota fan here, who brought you Chinese memes and interview translations over the past few TI's. With the advent of The International 9, many fans who are looking to attend the event live but have never visited Shanghai would understandably have many questions and concerns regarding the city. This guide was painstakingly written by yours truly to give ya'll an idea of what to expect during your visit and answer some common questions and concerns. Be warned that this is a REALLY long guide (9k words, no biggie) aimed towards first timers in Shanghai, if you’re a ticket holder and this is your first time visiting, make sure to read the whole thing as a fair few parts are interconnected.
 
If you have any specific questions that this guide doesn’t cover, feel free to ask any questions in the comments section or via the Shanghai TI9 Discord.
 

Introduction

Shanghai is one of the largest cities in the world, with a population of more than 24 million. Situated along China’s eastern coastline, Shanghai has a warm temperate climate, with July and August being our hottest months averaging 25-35 degrees Celsius. Rainy season usually ends by late June so we would expect typical hot summer weather during the event period, so dress accordingly.
 
Air pollution in Shanghai has seen a drastic reduction since 2010 in an effort to improve the city's image. Despite this improvement, it is still considered fairly polluted by global standards, and sensitive people might experience respiratory irritation, though if you’re from a developed city you probably won’t notice much difference. Also, indoor smoking has been recently banned in Shanghai, so smoking is only allowed in open-air environments or designated smoking areas.
 
In terms of commodity costs, China isn't as cheap as it used to be, and Shanghai’s definitely on the pricey end of the scale. That being said, you can always find a good deal on accommodation and food if you’re resourceful enough, though you might need a local friend to help you with that.
 
Compared to other parts of China, Shanghai has one of the highest overall prevalence of English speakers. Younger generations have at least a rudimentary grasp of English, and there’s a fairly large number of proficient users. Communication for basic things like directions and purchases shouldn’t be an issue.
 
One thing to note is that Shanghai isn’t just a tourist location for you, it’s a tourist hotspot for the rest of China as well. There’s easily a couple million domestic tourists in Shanghai on any given day, and to them, YOU are a tourist attraction, so try not to be bothered by the looks and attention. People in China are generally very welcoming and friendly towards foreigners, so if you’re in a pinch, just ask for help from passer-bys (particularly younger folk).
 

Preparations

1. Visa
Before one books a flight to Shanghai, first thing you will need to do is look up the Visa application process to obtain a tourist visa to China. China’s visa application process is pretty straightforward without any particular hurdles, just fill up the relevant forms and attach the required documents. The main items you will need to prepare for the application would be your flight itinerary and hotel booking. Please note that in some countries, you may have to submit the application form in person or via mail to specific visa application centers, so make sure you do your research on the due process beforehand.
 
[Cost]
Visa cost may vary between countries, usually ranging between USD$90 – 110, though I’ve seen some places pricing it at 150. Agency fees will apply if you apply through a travel agent, but that may be preferred to simplify the process if you find it hard to navigate through the embassy resources.
 
[Duration]
Officially, visa processing time is slated to be 10-14 days, but it can often be processed as quickly as 2-3 days, depending on how busy the embassy is. Again, check with your country’s authorities, you may have to return to the visa application center to pick-up your passport/visa.
 
[Misc]
Singapore, Brunei and Japan passport holders can enter China without a visa for a stay no more than 15 days. For those of you from countries with powerful passports, you may be unused to the paperwork to fill out, but it’s pretty simple to handle and shouldn’t take more than 15 minutes of your time.
 
2.Flight
For flight booking, simply use your preferred website, skyscanner, booking, etc, to find the lowest fare available.
Shanghai is a cosmopolitan city so there wouldn’t be any problems booking flights there, Pudong Airport is one of the busiest airports in the world. Note however that there are two airports in Shanghai, Pudong International Airport (PVG) and HongQiao International Airport (SHA). Nowadays, HongQiao Airport is mostly for domestic flights, but if you’re flying from Eurasia, your flight may transit via another major inland city in China, which will possibly land you in HongQiao. If you’re travelling with friends via different flightpaths, make sure everyone’s booking to the right airport, because the two airports are pretty far apart on opposite ends of the city.
 
Should the air tickets to Shanghai be in short supply, alternative flight routes include flying to Hangzhou or Nanjing and taking a high speed rail to Shanghai. The high speed rail service in China is world-class and easy to navigate (do inquire if you’re going for this option, I’ll add another section if it’s in high demand), and it’s less than 2 hours travel time via the rail to Shanghai. If you wish to take this chance to tour around China a bit, this would be a good choice as you can visit multiple cities and see their unique history, culture and attractions (such as West Lake in Hangzhou).
 
3.Venue:
Before we get to the hotel and accommodations, the venue needs to be looked at since I’m sure a lot of you will be looking to stay somewhere nearby. First off, here’s a google map of the venue and its surroundings.
The stadium is conveniently located right beside a Metro station, China Art Museum Station. You will see the iconic Mercedez Benz Arena (MBA) building immediately when you step out of the station via exit 4 (I've personally verified it), and it is a mere 30 second walk to the stadium.
 
Located along the bank of the Huangpu River, the MBA is part of the expo grounds developed during the 2010 World Expo in Shanghai. It boasts spectacular views of the city and the river, has a gorgeous park right next to it where you can go for a leisurely stroll, stunning architecture in every direction and rows upon rows of restaurants available in the adjacent River Mall Area 5. The entire area was developed for event purposes and its facilities are specifically constructed to cater to those needs.
 
HOWEVER, this also means that there are no hotels or residences within the immediate vicinity, since the district was entirely purposed as exhibition grounds. The nearest available accommodation would be budget hotels approximately 1km away, with decent hotels (4-stars) at least 1.5km away. Given how efficient the Shanghai Metro is, it is strongly recommended that you widen your hotel search radius and take advantage of the Metro system.
 
Please also note that food and drinks are not allowed to be brought into the Arena. While there is some leeway for small finger foods and mineral water, it is up to the discretion of the organizers/guards (i.e. if the venue ends up being a mess on day 1, they might enforce a stricter ban day 2 onwards. Keep the venue clean everyone!). Things like a Mcdonalds takeout bag are definitely not allowed. Food and drinks are available for sale inside the Arena, but at a hefty premium compared to standard local retail prices. For reference, a bottle of water sold inside would be about 15-18 rmb (2.50 USD), a grilled sausage is 10rmb (1.50 USD) etc.
 
4. Hotels/Accommodation
In a city of 24 million, hotels are aplenty around Shanghai, with options available across all prices. As a reminder, your passport is mandatory for checking into any public accommodation in Shanghai, be it hotels or AirBnB. Also, while AirBnB is rising in Shanghai, unless you have a local friend helping you out, you may encounter communication issues with due processes during your stay, hence I would recommend sticking to hotels where formality is assured.
[Edit] I've been informed that due to the new recycling laws enacted in July, budget and mid-range hotels no longer provide bathroom amenities by default, but are available on request. Please remember to ask for them before flaming them!
 
[Location Selection]
The main priority you would have when choosing a hotel for the TI event would be the ease of commute to the venue. It is highly recommended that you search for a hotel that is close to a Metro line. To recap for those who skipped straight to this section, it is due to these main reasons:
 
The Arena’s station lies on Line 8 (blue line), which runs vertically through the city. You can reduce the hassle of changing lines by selecting accommodation solely along this metro line, but it would limit your options. I recommend that you use the map view when booking your hotels on your booking site of choice and try to find hotels within walking distance of a metro station (which honestly isn't hard because of the extensive metro coverage - see transportation section).
The main locations where hotel prices are higher would be in the strip stretching from People’s Square to LuJiaZui (highlighted in yellow in the above link), due to their premium location in the heart of Shanghai’s iconic tourist hotspots. Beyond these areas, hotel prices are generally fairly uniform across the city.
 
[Hotel Grades & Chains]
i.Budget hotels (USD 35-70)
While there are even cheaper options, I would not recommend them as they run the risk of being sketchy motels or hostels with nothing but a bed. Most of them likely won’t have English-speaking staff either, and honestly you likely won’t find them on international booking sites, so don’t worry.
There are a few budget hotel chains in Shanghai, such as HANTING and JINJIANG. These are typical budget hotels offering a simple room with standard utilities and daily room service, but likely do not include breakfast nor any sort of catering service (they might on the upper price end). Note that even within the same hotel chain, the quality of the hotel may vary significantly, so keep an eye on the photos when booking. In some low-budget cases, the room might not have an exterior window, but gaming addicts don’t need sunlight anyway.
 
ii.Midrange Hotels (USD 70-120)
This is where you’ll find some international brands like Holiday Inn. These hotels are generally 3-4 star caliber, and would match international standards in terms of room quality. Typical hotels, not much to comment about them.
 
iii.Luxury Hotels (USD 120+)
As a cosmopolitan city, Shanghai sports luxury hotels from all international hotel chains, such as Mariott, Ascott, Intercontinental etc. Beyond the luxuries these hotels offer, they are usually situated in shopping hubs or tourist hotspots, and you can be assured that they would have staff proficient in English. A personal recommendation I would make is the Jumeirah Himalayas Hotel, which is absolutely stunning and located right next to Metro line 7, taking a mere 25 minutes to arrive at the Mercedes-Benz Arena.
 
If you have any queries or questions about the hotel you’re booking, feel free to ask on Discord where Shanghai locals (myself included) will be able to answer you.
 
5.VPN and Data Plans
Due to censorship laws and the Great Firewall of China, many commonly used social media platforms and search engines are blocked and/or throttled in China. Facebook, Google, Snapchat, Twitter, Youtube are all completely blocked. Google translate and maps are usable (via its Chinese platform translate.google.cn and maps.google.cn), Whatsapp is kinda-sorta banned but messages do go through occasionally (pictures and media definitely can’t). Reddit’s in the same boat, it’s banned but… sometimes it’s not? Anyway, bottomline is, if you want to access the internet as you do back home, there are two options:
  1. Your home country’s local carrier has global roaming, and you’re fine with coughing up the dough for usage abroad. Check with your service provider to see if this is available. If you’re visiting for a short duration (i.e. main event only), this would be a good choice and price would vary based on your mobile plan. Because you’re using the network provided by your own country’s carrier, the global roaming is NOT subject to the firewall and you’d retain full access to the internet, which saves a lot of hassle.
  2. If you use a network in China, such as connecting to local wifi/using a local sim card you purchased, you will have to utilize a VPN to access the blocked content. Contrary to popular belief, VPNs are NOT illegal to use in China. (What is illegal is if you sell a VPN service as a corporate entity without approval granted by the authorities). There are tons of VPNs available on the market, however the GFW is no slouch and do periodic banwaves that kills of a bunch every now and then. Make sure you do careful research on which ones are reliably usable before purchasing; the free ones tend to be either shady (data selling) or unreliable (unusable/poor connection). If you use a VPN service, make sure to install and ensure that it is working first before arriving in Shanghai, as those service providers’ websites might be blocked.
 
Protip: If you’re a University student, look up your university’s tech resources to see if they have a uni-access VPN for students abroad, particularly if your university has a strong Asian demographic. Given the large number of Chinese students abroad and the endemic problem of being unable to access University resources whilst on holidays back home, many Unis have set up official VPNs for use by their Chinese students, which you can make use of in this instance. Most US/CA/UK/AU institutions have this function and you can look it up.
 
6. Apps to prepare
  1. Google Translate: Your best buddy if mandarin is basically moonrunes for you. Helps with basic communication which should cover most things you’ll encounter on your trip.
  2. Pleco: Your second best buddy to help with communication, comes with voice functions, optical character recognition functions (when you see a signboard and have no clue what it means and you can’t type it out either), handwriting input (you can draw moonrunes into it) and many other functions that helps you overcome the language barrier
  3. Didi: Basically Chinese Uber. Allows foreign credit card payment so one of the rare few apps that foreigners can work with. Visa/Mastercard/UnionPay only, not sure about AMEX.
  4. Wechat: Chinese Whatsapp and Facebook rolled into one, you should set it up beforehand. This is THE most used app in China, just about everyone uses it and it is an essential means of communication. If you meet anyone you want to stay in touch with, add them through Wechat and you’re good to go. Perhaps someday you might even discover the fabled meme trove of China that is Wechat Stickers…
 
7.Money
This warrants a special section because Shanghai has a unique case of being an essentially “Cashless” city. E-commerce is the predominant form of transaction in Shanghai, with virtually everyone making payments and transfers via wallet apps such as Alipay and Wechat. This has resulted in much lower amounts of circulated cash, and oftentimes small retails and cabbies may not hold enough spare change since barely anyone uses cash these days. While highly convenient, this becomes a challenge for foreign visitors as the process for linking the wallet app to a credit card requires verification from a local bank.
There are a few ways one can make payments in China:
  1. Domestic payment platforms such as Wechat/Alipay, if you are able to complete the verification process. This may be possible for some SEA nations with banks that are partnered with Unionpay.
  2. Some international payment platforms such as ApplePay, SamsungPay are also accepted at larger chains (Starbucks, Mcdonalds etc)
  3. Credit Cards are accepted at most large retail outlets, stores and restaurants, but some cards may not be accepted (Visa/Mastercard/Unionpay are fine)
  4. Cash – ATM’s around the city do cater to foreign cards but there are transaction costs and withdrawal limits, I believe it’s around 2000 RMB per transaction (300USD) for foreign cards.
See also the section on transportation below for further information regarding travel payments.
 

Arrival in Shanghai

Once you have made the necessary preparations for your trip to Shanghai, next comes the part where you plan what to do while you’re here.
 
1.Airport Services
There are a few things to take note of when you arrive at the Shanghai Airport. Security is pretty standard per international standards, and you won’t be subjected to TSA-style unsolicited colonoscopies. You may be requested to open your bags for a brief inspection, so please do not attempt to smuggle contraband (see section on China Law). If the border officer asks the purpose of your visit and doesn’t understand e-sports, just tell them you’re here to attend an exhibition.
PSA due to recent bs on worldnews: No, you will NOT be asked to hand over your phone or electronic devices. No, you will not have any bullshit spyware forcibly installed on your phones, apple/google already did that for you. No, security doesn’t give a shit if you have porn on your devices. These measures are only applied to specific border crossings in one specific part of western China that is prone to conflict, and do not apply to 99% of China’s ports.
Once you leave the gates, there might be a swathe of tourist peddlers asking if you need a cab, do make sure to ignore them and just follow the signs to the public transport facilities. The information desks at the airport all have English assistance so you can look to them for help. There are 3 main transportation options from Pudong Airport to the city – Cabs, Metro and the Maglev, as follows:
1. Cabs/Uber: The fare from Pudong Airport to the venue is approximately 150RMB (22USD), subject to variation based on time (night rate, peak hour jams etc). Depending on where your hotel is, you can approximate what your fare would likely be. I recommend that you print out the hotel address (In Chinese characters) for easy navigation with the driver.
2. Metro: Metro lines are available in both HongQiao and Pudong Airports, and easily accessed after exiting the gates. This is by far the cheapest option, costing a mere 3 – 5 RMB a trip (45-75 cents), though you will likely be facing a rather packed train. If you’re looking to minimize costs or if your hotel is near a metro line, this is the recommended way, though you will have to navigate your way through the metro map to the right station.
3. Maglev: The Shanghai Magnetic Levitation Rail, available only in Pudong Airport, is a short-distance rail that takes you from the Airport to Longyang Station, a transport hub close to the city. Costing 40 RMB (6 USD) for a ticket, the Maglev is a state-of-the-art transport that goes up to 430+ kph, covering the 30+ km (19miles) between stations in 7 minutes (which the metro line would otherwise take 40 minutes to traverse). If this is your first time in Shanghai, I highly recommend taking it at least once for the experience, not just for the speed but also that surreal /futurology moment when the magnets hum to life and you feel the train levitating.
 
2.Currency Exchange
Next thing you might worry about is currency exchange. In the case that you did not prepare local currency, there is a currency exchanger in the airport; however the airport rates tend to be pretty pricey. In China, currency exchange is government controlled, which means there are no private retail currency exchangers as one might find in other countries. Instead, all currency exchange are performed through the banks. The bank’s rates all uniformly follow the central bank’s rate, which is highly competitive, and in most cases the exchange rate will likely be far better than in your own countries due to regulations against banks placing a premium on currency exchange. You may have to bring your passport to prove your identity, but beyond that you won’t need to worry about any procedural obstacles. A yearly exchange cap of US$50,000 per person applies for foreign cash exchange (does not apply to credit card transactions), but I don’t think that would apply to most of us attending the event.
 
3.Transport
A. UbeDiDi
Didi, which is basically Chinese Uber, is the go-to app in Shanghai for vehicular transport. There are other alternative apps but Didi is the most integrated in terms of english availability and, more importantly, allows use of international visa/mastercard credit payment.
While Didi is a very convenient mode of transport around Shanghai, do note that it may not be the best choice for the event, as you’re looking at over 15,000 people leaving the venue at the close of each day, of which a sizable portion will be hailing private fares. If you rely on Didi/Uber, you might find yourself placed 200+ in the queue with an estimated wait time of over 2 hours… which is why I recommend seeking public transport to the venue.
 
B. Public Transport – Metro
The Shanghai Metro is the most convenient form of transport in the city. With a huge network spanning across the city, there are few places in the metropolitan area that are beyond a 15 minute walk from any given station. One of the most efficient systems in the world, the Metro runs at intervals of approximately 3 minutes, down to 30 seconds during peak hours (commuters wanted more but safety concerns limited the frequency), so you don’t have to worry about missing one. Most lines operate between 5am to 11pm, with Line 2 (which connects to the airports/railway stations) running as late as 1.30am. During the late hours though, taxis/didi would be your only option.
 
All stations have signs in both English and Mandarin so you shouldn’t have many issues navigating your way around, though you should take note of which exit you want to take as some major stations can have over 20 exits and span a long distance. The metro can be really packed during peak hours – while not at Japan levels of sardine packing, you may find yourself queueing and missing a few trains before being able to board one yourself. Peak hours is usually 8am-9:30am and 5pm-6:30pm.
 
To use the Metro, you will need to purchase a Public Transport Card which looks like THIS. The card can be purchased at any metro station including the airport and costs 20 RMB (3 USD) that can be refunded upon return. You can then top up the card with whatever value needed. Do note that the Public Transport Card is usable across all official public transport (Metro, Buses, Official Taxis, Maglev) which makes it particularly convenient as you won’t have to worry about spare change, you can pay by just scanning the card, so keep that in mind when topping it.
When refunding the card at the station upon leaving the country, do note that there will be a 5% surcharge on refunds above 10 RMB when returning the card.
 
C. Public Transport – Taxi
There are a few different taxi companies in Shanghai, but the main reputable ones are 大众 (Cyan colour), 强生(Yellow or Red colour). The main taxi companies are affiliated with the Department of Transportation, allowing them to accept payment via the public transport card as described above. It is highly recommended to obtain a card for this purpose as many Taxi drivers might not keep much spare change for cash transactions, given the cashless city phenomenon. You can also book a taxi directly using Didi, which may sometimes be faster than finding a dedicated driver.
 
Change Taxi's if the taxi does not have a meter or if the driver asks to keep the fare off-meter. Do note however that it is customary for the driver to not activate the meter immediately out of courtesy to the passenger – they usually activate it after driving a few meters or after completing a u-turn, so don’t be alarmed. You shouldn't have to bargain for your fare, and never pay up-front. Some drivers may prefer not to pick up foreigners due to bad experiences with past passengers (drunken fare-skipper incidents etc) and many cabs are pre-booked via booking apps, so don’t be surprised when an empty cab appears to ignore you.
 
Unfortunately, most taxi drivers will not understand the slightest bit of English, so if you don't speak Mandarin, it's very useful to have a 'taxi card'. Most hotels will provide you with one, which contains the hotel's address for your return trip. It's best to keep small bills or change for taxi's, as taxi drivers won't usually have change. Taxi drivers do not expect a tip, nor will they ask for one, but they do appreciate if you round up the bill / forego the change.
 
D. Relevant Traffic laws and customs:
Shanghai is notorious for its cutthroat driving etiquette where many drivers don’t use blinkers and the right of way goes to whoever gives less fucks. While the traffic culture has improved over the years with increased traffic police oversight, there are still many things that may take visitors for a surprise. If in doubt, stick to a crowd and you’ll be fine.
First off is the right-turn rule in China, where cars can do a right turn (small turn) on a red light. So if you’re at a traffic junction, don’t assume safety of passage once the pedestrian light turns green, take note of your surroundings for ignorant drivers to ensure it is safe to cross. Alternatively, stick to a crowd and you’ll be fine.
Secondly, there are a lot of cyclists/scooterists in Shanghai, and they have a tendency to think themselves above traffic laws with their maneuverability. I can’t count the number of times I’ve had a close shave with some asshole on a scooter blatantly ignoring a red light. There are bicycle lanes on most roads around Shanghai, so keep an eye out there when crossing roads, or just stick to a crowd and you’ll be fine.
 
4.Food
Being a cosmopolitan city, Shanghai caters to all sorts of tastes and preferences when it comes to food. Local signature dishes include steamed soup dumplings, pan-fried buns, soysauce braised pork, baked sweet potato, drunken chicken and many others, while also sporting some of the best hotpots around. There are also innumerable restaurants serving foreign cuisines, ranging from Japanese, Korean, Western, Indian and various Southeast Asian cultures. There are restaurants that cater to vegetarians and halal requirements, and if all else fail, we have the bastions of American nutrition, McDonalds/KFC/Burger King.
 
[Food Hygiene and Sanitation]
One might be understandably concerned about the sanitary conditions of food in China. Shanghai’s town council has aggressively tightened hygiene regulations over the past years, particularly after major food scandals which pretty much killed the street food business due to public fear (unethical assholes ruining things for everyone as usual). While there are definitely seedy places out there with questionable sanitation, you would be perfectly safe sticking to larger establishments. As a rule of thumb, find places with a decent crowd and you’re good to go. Largefancier restaurants are very safe as they do have a reputation to maintain, and most expat/tourist areas are closely vetted; generally if the restaurant has a budget for English menus it’s pretty safe.
 
[Water]
Tap water in Shanghai needs to be boiled before consumption. Your hotel should have complementary drinks (you can always ring the reception for more, though budget/midrange hotels might limit it at two per day) and there is no shortage of convenience stores across the city where you can purchase drinks.
 
[Exotic Foods]
Shanghai’s on the moderate end of the scale when it comes to exotic foods, so you won’t be finding some of the more extreme foodstuffs that shows up on fear factor. If you’re feeling adventurous during your stay however, you can try some of the local delicacies which oftentimes involve parts considered unusual in western culinary cultures. Braised chicken feet (called Phoenix Claws) is a hugely popular dish, along with pork liver, blood pudding, pork ears, ox tail soup and many more. China has a rich culinary culture with many recipes passed down over innumerable generations, and many dishes have some sort of background story behind them.
 
[Tipping]
Some restaurants refuse tips, mostly because they’re unused to it and are accustomed to fully returning your change. However, tipping is becoming more common in the city, but mainly in high-end restaurants where a 10-15% service charge may be added to the bill. Elsewhere it is not expected.
 
[Misc]
While food in Shanghai’s metropolitan area is quite clean by international standards, it is recommended that visitors bring some diarrhea medication along just in case of upset stomachs. For allergies, there are over-the-counter medications available in local pharmacies, but anything with adrenalin or corticosteroid (epipens etc) will require a doctor’s prescription at the hospital. (See section on Medical Services)
For street food/small eateries, unless you have a Chinese E-wallet app, you will likely have to use cash payments as vendors may not have SWIFT payment available, so keep some loose change on you.
 
5.Alcoholic Beverages
The legal drinking age in China is 18, and the Chinese are no strangers to the world’s favorite poison. Most restaurants serve beers which tend to be local brews like Tsingtao pale lager, priced around USD$1.5-3 a bottle. If you prefer western drinks, there are also several western bars in Shanghai, usually clustered around expat areas. A quick google search of shanghai bars will give you a rough idea of where they are, these places tend to be streetfront and very popular so you don’t have to worry about seedy joints. Keep in mind though that imported drinks will have a hefty premium tagged on them if you’re buying from a bar, so don’t expect cheap prices in this regard.
 
If you’re feeling adventurous, you can try the local Baijiu (White Wine or Chinese Vodka), which is a spirit typically around 52% alcohol content (though some brands go as low as 38 and as high as 64). Keep in mind that Baijiu has a different “role” compared to western liquor - despite also being served in small glasses (about half a standard shot), it is usually consumed during a meal, as a complement to your course rather than a standalone beverage, though it also can be consumed that way.
 
Buyers beware, however, as Baijiu comes in many different varieties and grades, ranging from thousands of dollars a bottle to 4 dollars for a 5 Litre drum. Just like how vodka’s cheaper than water in Russia, some of the lower end brands are ridiculously cheap. However you get what you pay for, and I honestly cannot recommend the cheap brands in good faith, as they’re considered “fake wine” by locals (just a shitty alcohol mix, not a savory brew), so unless you’re really motivated to abuse your body and taste buds, I’d advise to stick to the more mainstream brands recommended by your Chinese peers or stores. For reference, a decent bottle would typically have a retail price of around 400+ RMB (60+USD), with more popular brands going past 800 RMB (120USD).
 
6.Sightseeing
Shanghai, being a highly developed city, has a skyline predominantly filled with skyscrapers and vast expanses of concrete jungle, so sightseeing here is a pretty similar experience to say, New York City. I’ll briefly list a few popular tourist hotspots here – there are already many tourist guides out there for Shanghai that gives you a wealth of information, so I’ll keep this section simple.
  1. The Bund - Pretty much the iconic heart of Shanghai, a must-see.
  2. Lu Jia Zui/Oriental pearl Tower – The financial center on the opposite coast of the Bund, with most of Shanghai’s iconic skyscrapers and buildings.
  3. Nanjing Road – The quintessential shopping avenue, stretching from the Bund to People’s Square (Note: You can directly take the metro from the Mercedez Benz Arena to People’s Square, then tour via People’s Square – Nanjing Road – The Bund. It’s a easily navigated path following one main road, and particularly beautiful at night. Highly recommended.)
  4. Yu Garden – Classical Chinese Garden and tourist hotspot
  5. Shanghai Museum / Shanghai Science and Technology Museum
  6. Shanghai Wild Animal Zoo – I highly recommend a visit if you can spare the time, as they feature a safari-like experience where you travel in a bus directly through an open pasture where tigers roam freely. Oh and you can purchase a live chicken to feed the tigers with.
  7. Zhujiajiao* – A classical old Chinese town with traditional Dynasty-era architecture. A fair distance away from the city center but worth a visit.
  8. SheShan* – A thematic tourist area with a huge park, golf courses, and the recently opened Intercontinental Wonderland Hotel – the hotel that is built within an abandoned quarry, featuring a unique “pit” environment as well as underwater rooms. Highly recommended for Underlord spammers.
*: As these places are fairly far from the city center, it is recommended that you seek a tour guide or tour group when visiting, if only to help with communication and navigation.
 
7.Chinese Law
This is probably the section that will attract the most memetic responses so I’ll keep it straight and simple – please be a responsible adult, as you would be when visiting ANY country. You’re here to attend an Esports event and have a good time watching some top-notch dota with the rest of the world. This enjoyment is similarly shared by everyone in the stadium regardless of race, country or culture. Everyone is here to celebrate something we all enjoy in equal measure, so please don’t let any political or cultural disagreements get in the way, because it doesn’t belong here.
That being said, there are certain laws that a visitor should keep in mind:
 
1. Drugs & Contraband
All narcotic substances are a BIG no-no here in China, and this includes marijuana. China has a zero-tolerance policy towards drugs after being subjected to massive narco-terrorism campaigns by colonial powers, which inflicted grievous damage to the nation and resulted in deep social and cultural enmity towards substance abuse. Please do not attempt to bring any narcotics into the country, even if they are legal in your home country. If caught in possession of drugs, you will be arrested on the spot, with penalties ranging from 15 days imprisonment (smoking weed) to capital punishment (trafficking heroin). This is the one line you REALLY do not want to fuck around with while in China, so don’t do it.
 
2. Censorship of politically sensitive topics
I’ll first clarify one thing: It is NOT illegal to engage in discussions about certain politically sensitive topics in China, unlike what popular opinion on /worldnews claims. However, broadcasting it would put you at risk of getting in trouble with authorities (looking at you edgelords who wants to put dumb political discourse on camera at a Dota event), as it can be considered public disruption or even instigating public unrest, which may get you detained for a couple days while your embassy sorts you out.
If you are particularly concerned about this for some reason, the below links provides a pretty good picture of what you can expect when discussing sensitive topics in China:
Link 1 Link 2
 
If it is your first time in Shanghai, you may well find the local populace to be very different from your preconceived notions, especially for younger generations who are generally more connected and well-informed of international news. I recommend that you keep an open mind coming into this beautiful city, and enjoy some awesome dota with the local fans.
 
[Cont]Nightlife/Safety/Police/Hospital
 
Due to hitting the 40,000 character cap on reddit, the remaining sections are posted in the link above. Please make sure to read them as well!
 
Again, if you have any questions, you can ask me in this thread or via PM, or through the Shanghai TI9 Discord where several locals are available constantly to answer any queries you have. You can also find more information through a quick google or youtube search, there are many resources that explains things you might encounter on a visit to Shanghai. One thing though, don’t ever use /China as a source of info, it’s a heavily biased (if not openly racist) cesspool.
 
To close things off, I hope this guide would be helpful to those of you visiting Shanghai, and it wasn't too much of a bore to read. This guide ended up being far lengthier than I predicted when I started it as a voluntary work, but it'd be worth it if it can help dota fans who are coming over from all around the world enjoy TI9 just a bit more. Shoutout to David from Newbee for keeping me on track over the past weeks and Icefrog for nerfing Doom to the point that I stopped playing Dota and could actually pump this guide out. Can you unnerf him now please?
P.S. If any team orgs would like assistance in setting up a social media presence in China on chinese platforms (to perhaps connect with and build up your chinese fanbase), do drop me a message via reddit DM!
submitted by trollogist to DotA2 [link] [comments]

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You must "lay" $150 in order to win $100. If New York loses, you lose $150. However, you could bet on Colorado , in which case you would lay $100 in order to win $140 (10 cent line). If Colorado loses, you only lose $100, and if Colorado wins, you would win $140. SportsBetting.ag offers both money line and point spread options on most sports. MLB dime lines refer to the difference in the line between the favorite and the underdog. The baseball line would qualify as a dime line if there’s a 10 cent difference between the two lines. The sportsbooks make their standard 10% juice on dime lines. Bettors may not realize it, but just about every point spread would qualify as a dime line. 10 cent line (house advantage 2.38%): Cubs -140 Brewers +130. 15 cent line (house advantage 3.49%): Cubs -143 Brewers +128. 20 cent line (house advantage 4.54%) Cubs -145 Brewers +125. As you can see, regardless of whether you are betting on the favorite or the underdog, the odds are always going to be better with a dime line. One of the best ways to locate sharp action is to follow Reverse Line Movement (RLM): when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. (both dogs and favorites) getting less than 35% moneyline bets with RLM of at least one cent have gone 3706-4733 (43.9%), +28.6 units won. If you raise the RLM to 10 cents or SportsLine Pro Sports Picks & Odds. I give the Red Sox a 15-cent advantage on offense for this game. In the pitching department, I have an extremely low rating on Michael Wacha and, after watching the performances of Rick Porcello and Corey Oswalt, I feel good about my rating on Wacha. When Line was -130 to -100. 0-0, 0 (%) When Line

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Moneyline parlays on big favorites

Sports Handicapper Ron Raymond has released his free Belmont Park Picks for Thursday, June 25, 2020. Today's Free Pick comes from the 1st race at Belmont Park, where the favorite in Race #1 is the ... What Marine Recruits Go Through In Boot Camp - Earning The Title - Making Marines on Parris Island - Duration: 25:36. Military Videos Recommended for you Betting Strategy That Works Make an Income Betting on Sports - Duration: 5:28. Caan Berry Pro Trader 85,990 views. 5:28. Night School 3 - Horseplaying A to Z 3.17.13 - Duration: 1:02:10. Tim Bennett explains what spread betting is and how a spread bet works. Don't miss out on Tim Bennett's video tutorials -- get the latest video sent straight to your inbox each week, before it's ... Sports Betting, Money Line, Spread, Total Hi! This is part of a series of videos on How to Become a Bookie. ... This is a bet to either win or lose, and it is based on a ten-cent line.