There is a sense of almost detached resignation amid trading desks as we enter the last trading day of a chaotic, volatile week that has whipsawed and stopped out virtually everyone after the Nasdaq saw the biggest intraday reversal since Thursday and pattern and momentum trading has become impossible amid one headline tape-bomb after another.
After yesterday furious tumble and sharp, last hour rebound, US equity futures are once again lower expecting fresh developments in the Huawei CFO arrest and trade war saga while today's payroll report may redirect the Fed's tightening focus in wage growth comes in hotter than the 3.1% expected; at the same time European stocks have rebounded from their worst day in more than two years while Asian shares posted modest gains as investors sought to end a bruising week on a more upbeat note. While stock trading was far calmer than Thursday, signs of stress remained just below the surface as the dollar jumped, Treasuries rose and oil whipsawed amid fears Iran could scuttle today's OPEC deal.
The MSCI All-Country World Index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was up 0.3% on the day, on track to end the week down 2%.
After Europe's Stoxx 600 Index sharp drop on Thursday, which tumbled the most since the U.K. voted to leave the EU in 2016, Friday saw Europe's broadest index jump 1.2% as every sector rallied following the cautious trade in the Asia-Pac session and the rebound seen on Wall Street where the Dow clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. European sectors are experiencing broad-based gains with marginal outperformance in the tech sector as IT names bounce back from yesterday’s Huawei-driven slump.
Technology stocks lead gains on Stoxx 600 Index, with the SX8P Index up as much as 2.3%, outperforming the 1.1% gain in the wider index; Nokia topped the sector index with a 5.9% advance in Helsinki after Thursday’s public holiday, having missed out on initial gains from rival Huawei’s troubles that earlier boosted Ericsson. Inderes said the arrest of Huawei CFO over potential violations of American sanctions on Iran will benefit Nokia and Ericsson, who are the main rivals of Huawei and ZTE. Similarly, Jefferies wrote in a note on Chinese networks that China may have to offer significant concessions to buy Huawei an “out of jail” card and reach a trade deal,
with China’s tech subsidies and “buy local” policies potentially under attack. "For example, why would Nokia and Ericsson have only 20% share in China’s 4G market," analysts wrote.
Meanwhile, energy names were volatile as the complex awaits further hints from the key OPEC+ meeting today. In terms of individual movers, Fresenius SE (-15.0%) fell to the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the company cut medium-term guidance, citing lower profit expectations at its clinics unit Helios and medical arm Fresenius Medical Care (-7.8%). The news sent Fresenius BBB- rated bonds tumbling, renewing fears of a deluge of "fallen angels." On the flip side, Bpost (+7.5%) and Tesco (+4.8%) are hovering near the top of the pan-Europe index amid broker upgrades.
Earlier in the session, Japanese equities outperformed as most Asian gauges nudged higher. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan nudged up 0.2%, though that followed a 1.8 percent drubbing on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.8 percent. Chinese shares, which were up earlier in the day, slipped into negative territory with the blue chips off 0.1 percent.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 also started firmer but were last down 0.4 percent. Markets face a test from U.S. payrolls data later in the session amid speculation that the U.S. economy is heading for a tough patch after years of solid growth.
Will the last employment report released this year (the December report comes out in early January) help markets to continue to form a base? The consensus for nonfarm payrolls today is for a 198k print, following the stronger-thanexpected 250k reading last month.
Average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.3% mom which should be enough to keep the annual reading at +3.1% yoy while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%. DB's economists are more or less in line with the consensus with a 200k forecast and also expect earnings to climb +0.3% mom, however that would be consistent with a small tick up in the annual rate to +3.17% and the fastest pace since April 2009. They also expect the current pace of job growth to push the unemployment rate down to 3.6% which would be the lowest since December 1969.
Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confused traders when late on Thursday, he emphasized the strength of the labor market, throwing a wrench into trader expectations the Fed is poised to pause tightening - arguably the catalyst for Thursday's market-closing ramp following a WSJ article which reported Fed officials were considering whether to signal a new wait-and-see mentality after a likely rate increase at their meeting in December.
While Friday's market has stabilized, for many the recent gyrations are just too much. For Dennis Debusschere, head of portfolio strategy at Evercore ISI, there’s still far too much risk to wade back into a market this riven by volatility. “Overall still untradeable in our opinion, until we get more clarity on trade and we think it will pay to wait this out,”
he wrote in a note to clients Thursday. “That being said, our desk is open for business if you’re feeling up to trading this backdrop.”
Meanwhile, the big question is what happens next year: “The big question mark still is what’s going to happen in 2019” with the Fed, Omar Aguilar, CIO of equities and multi-asset strategies at Charles Schwab, told Bloomberg TV. “The jobs report could easily be the catalyst that will tell us a little more about what the path may be.”
Expecting that a big slowdown is coming, interest rate futures rallied hard in massive volumes with the market now pricing in less than half a hike next year, compared to just a month ago when they had been betting on more than two increases.
Treasuries extended their blistering rally, driving 10-year yields down to a three-month trough at 2.8260 percent, before last trading at 2.8863 percent. Yields on two-year notes fell a huge 10 basis points at one stage on Thursday and were last at 2.75 percent. Investors also steamrolled the yield curve to its flattest in over a decade, a trend that has historically presaged economic slowdowns and even recessions.
The seismic shock spread far and wide. Yields on 10-year paper sank to the lowest in six months in Germany, almost 12 months in Canada and 16 months in Australia. Italian debt climbed as European bonds largely drifted.
The greenback advanced against most of its Group-of-10 peers ahead of U.S. jobs data that are expected to show hiring slowed last month. The pound fell as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May was said to be weighing a plan to postpone the vote on her Brexit deal.
In commodity markets, gold firmed to near a five-month peak as the dollar eased and the threat of higher interest rates waned. Spot gold stood 0.1 percent higher at $1,239.49 per ounce. Oil was less favored, however, falling further as OPEC delayed a decision on output cuts while awaiting support from non-OPEC heavyweight Russia. Brent futures fell 0.5 percent to $59.77 a barrel, while U.S. crude also lost half a percent to $51.19. Cryptocurrencies continued their collapse with fresh losses
after U.S. regulators dashed hopes that a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund would appear before the end of this year. Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- S&P500 futures down 0.4% to 2,680.00
- STOXX Europe 600 up 1.3% to 347.69
- MXAP up 0.2% to 151.21
- MXAPJ up 0.2% to 485.67
- Nikkei up 0.8% to 21,678.68
- Topix up 0.6% to 1,620.45
- Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 26,063.76
- Shanghai Composite up 0.03% to 2,605.89
- Sensex up 0.9% to 35,631.53
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 5,681.49
- Kospi up 0.3% to 2,075.76
- German 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 0.244%
- Euro down 0.05% to $1.1368
- Italian 10Y yield rose 13.9 bps to 2.835%
- Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.46%
- Brent futures up 0.2% to $60.16/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,239.70
- U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.88
Asian stocks saw cautious gains
- The arrest of Huawei Technologies Co. Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou in Canada over potential violations of American sanctions on Iran has triggered a debate in China over whether to carry on with trade talks with the U.S. or link the two issues and retaliate; Meng will have a bail hearing Friday to determine whether she is a flight risk and should remain in detention during proceedings on extradition to the U.S.
- Oil extended losses near $51 a barrel after OPEC entered a second day of talks in an attempt to draw up a deal to cut output. Iran sees no possibility of agreeing to reduce its output, Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said Friday
- Theresa May met with her top ministers in London on Thursday to discuss options of delaying the Dec. 11 Parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal to avoid a landslide defeat that would risk a major U.K. political crisis, according to a person familiar with the matter
- EU leaders are poised to turn their next summit into a Brexit crisis meeting, but so far, it doesn’t look like they’re willing to offer her anything that could help to break the deadlock in the U.K. Parliament
- Angela Merkel’s long exit from politics begins Friday when her party gathers in Hamburg to decide whether to appoint her chosen successor as its new leader or break with the legacy of her 13 years in charge of Germany
- Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria has complained that he is the victim of one ambush after another as his future is called into question amid tensions with populist leaders over a spending spree to fund election policies, according to newspaper Il Giornale
with the region getting an early tailwind after the sharp rebound on Wall St, where most majors inished lower albeit off worse levels as tech recovered and the DJIA clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. ASX 200 (+0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.8%) were both higher at the open but gradually pared some of the gains as the risk tone began to turn cautious heading into today’s key-risk NFP jobs data. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp (U/C) were indecisive amid further PBoC inaction in which it remained net neutral for a 5th consecutive week and with the upcoming Chinese trade data over the weekend adding to tentativeness, while pharmaceuticals were the worst hit due to concerns of price declines from the government’s centralized procurement program. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat amid a similar picture in T-note futures and although early selling pressure was seen in Japanese bonds alongside the strong open in stocks, prices later recovered as the risk appetite somewhat dissipated. Top Asian News
- China’s FX Reserves Rose Despite Intervention, Outflow Signs - Hong Kong May Slip Into Recession in 2019, Deutsche Bank Warns - SoftBank Seeks to Assuage Investors on Pre-IPO Mobile Outage - Southeast Asia Reserves Recover a Bit in November as Rout Eases European equities extended on gains from the cash open
(Eurostoxx 50 +1.2%) following the cautious trade in the Asia-Pac session and the rebound seen on Wall St where the Dow clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. European sectors are experiencing broad-based gains with marginal outperformance in the tech sector as IT names bounce back from yesterday’s Huawei-driven slump. Meanwhile, energy names are volatile (currently marginally underperforming) as the complex awaits further hints from the key OPEC+ meeting today. In terms of individual movers, Fresenius SE (-15.0%) fell to the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the company cut medium-term guidance, citing lower profit expectations at its clinics unit Helios and medical arm Fresenius Medical Care (-7.8%). On the flip side, Bpost (+7.5%) and Tesco (+4.8%) are hovering near the top of the pan-Europe index amid broker upgrades. Top European News
- LandSec, Undeterred by Brexit, Makes New Bet on London Offices
- Danske Says It’s Looking Into Selling Its Swedish Pension Assets
- Chinese Group Agrees to Buy Amer Sports in $5.2 Billion Deal
- Bad Air Warnings in London And Paris Peak With Fish And Chips
- DXY- Typically rangebound trade in the run up to US labour data, and with markets also monitoring OPEC+ headlines as a decision on whether to cut output and if so by how much remains highly uncertain. The index is hovering just under the 97.000 handle within a 96.767-96.931 band, and well within nearest technical support and resistance levels at 96.300 and 97.311 respectively.
- GBP- A marginal G10 underperformer as Cable retreats back below 1.2750 from just above 1.2800 at one stage, but this could be more flow-related rather than anything fundamental as EuGbp rallied towards 0.8930 peaks from just under the big figure into the Frankfurt fixing before drifting back again. However, Halifax house prices were much weaker than expected and latest Brexit news is hardly Sterling supportive given more speculation about delaying the meaningful vote to try and avoid a resounding rejection, even though the Government appears to be resolute and standing firm on December 11.
- NZD/AUD- The Kiwi is at the opposite end of a relatively narrow Usd/Major spectrum, and like the Pound also impacted by indirect factors to a degree, if not in the main. Indeed, Nzd/Usd remains capped ahead of 0.6900, but Aud/Nzd is pivoting 1.0500 as the Aussie unit continues to feel the adverse effects of recent bearish impulses, namely softer than forecast Q3 GDP and a more dovish RBA via Debelle. Hence, Aud/Usd is softer between 0.7210-40 parameters and bound to be wary of huge option expiries from 0.7250-60 in 6.6 bn that form a formidable barrier ahead of circa 1.2 bn up at 0.7300.
- EUJPY- In the pre-NFP ‘hiatus’ and awaiting anything further on the Italian budget front, option expiries may also exert directional impetus on EuUsd and Usd/Jpy, as the former faces 2+ bn at the 1.1400 strike and latter is flanked by 1+ bn at 112.50 and 113.00.
- CAD- The Loonie has pared a bit more lost ground from recent lows, albeit partly due to a broad Usd retracement, eyeing OPEC and also Canada’s jobs report given latest BoC guidance indicating even greater data dependency. Usd/Cad currently just shy of the 1.3400 mark vs 1.3440+ at one stage yesterday.
WTI (+0.2%) and Brent (+0.9%) are choppy in what was a volatile session thus far as comments from energy ministers emerged ahead of the key OPEC+ meeting, after yesterday’s OPEC talks ended with no deal for the first time in almost five years. Brent rose after source reports noted that Moscow are ready to cut output by 200k BPD (below OPEC’s desire of 250k-300k but above Russia’s prior “maximum” of 150k) if OPEC are willing to curb production by over 1mln BPD. Prices then fell to session lows following a less constructive tone from Saudi Energy Minister who reiterated that he is not confident there will be a deal today, which came after delegates noted that OPEC talks are focused on a combined OPEC+ cut of 1mln BPD (650k from OPEC and 350k from Non-OPEC). Markets are awaiting the start of the OPEC+ meeting after delegates stated that talks are at deadlocked as Iran appears to be the main sticking point to an OPEC deal, though sources emerged stating that Iran, Venezuela and Libya are set to get exemptions from cuts, adding that OPEC and Russia are looking for a symbolic production commitment from Iran as fears arise that Iran may not be able to follow-through on curb pledges due to US sanctions. In terms of metals, gold hovers around session highs and is set for the best week since August with the USD trading in a tight range ahead of the key US jobs data later today, while London copper rose over a percent is underpinned by the positive risk tone. US Event Calendar
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
- 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 198,000, prior 250,000
- Unemployment Rate, est. 3.7%, prior 3.7%; Underemployment Rate, prior 7.4%
- Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 3.1%
- 8:30am: Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.5, prior 34.5
- 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 0.2%
- 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 97, prior 97.5; Current Conditions, prior 112.3; Expectations, prior 88.1
- 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $15.0b, prior $10.9b
The age of innocence has truly gone in financial markets after a turbulent 24 hours but one that saw a spectacular rally after Europe closed last night and one that has steadily carried on in Asia overnight (more on this below). Before we get to that I’m on an intense client marketing roadshow at the moment on the 2019 Credit outlook and there are a litany of worries out there from investors. Maybe I’m trying to be too cute here but I think the problems we’re seeing in credit at the moment are more of a “ghost of Xmas future” rather than a sign of an imminent disaster scenario.
However my overall confidence that credit will blow up around the end of this cycle has only intensified in the last couple of weeks. Liquidity is awful in credit and it’s been a broken two way market for several years (probably as long as I’ve worked in it - 24 years). However this has got worse this cycle as the size of the market has grown rapidly but dealer balance sheets have reduced. As such you can buy massive size at new issue but your ability to sell in secondary is constrained to a small percentage of this. This didn’t matter much when inflows dominated - as they mostly did in this cycle pre-2018 - but in a year of outflows across the board the lack of a proper two way market is increasingly being felt. As discussed I don’t think this is the start of the crisis yet but be warned that when this economic cycle does roll over or even starts to operate at stall speed the credit market will be very messy and will influence other markets again.
On the positive side and despite a very steep mid-session selloff, US markets ultimately closed well off the lows. The DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ finished -0.32%, -0.15% and +0.42% respectively, though they traded as low as -3.14%, -2.91%, and -2.43% respectively, around noon in New York. At its lows, the S&P 500 was on course for its worst two-session stretch since February, and before that you’d have to go back to August 2015 or 2011 to find the last episode with as steep a two-day drop. The DOW and S&P 500 dipped into negative territory for the year again, but clawed back and are now +0.92% and +0.84% YTD (+3.16% and +2.69% on a total return basis). The NASDAQ has clung to its outperformance, as it is now up +4.13% this year, or +5.20% on a total return basis, though of course the difference is narrower in the low-dividend paying, high-growth tech index.
Unsurprisingly, the moves yesterday coincided with higher volatility with the VIX climbing as much as +5.2pts to 25.94 and pretty much back to the October highs, though it too rallied alongside the equity market to end close to flat at 21.15. Meanwhile, the price action was even uglier in Europe as the US lows were around the close. The STOXX 600 plunged -3.09% and is down -4.22% in two days – the most in two days since June 2016. Nowhere was safe. The DAX (-3.48%), CAC (-3.32%), FTSE MIB (-3.54%) and IBEX (-2.75%) all saw huge moves lower. The DAX has now joined the Italy’s FSTEMIB in bear market territory, as it is now -20.49% off its highs earlier this year. The FTSEMIB is down -24.04% from its highs. European Banks – which were already down nearly -27% YTD going into yesterday – tumbled -4.29% for the biggest daily fall since May and the third biggest since immediately after Brexit. The index is now at the lowest since October 2016 and within 17% of the June 2016 lows all of a sudden. US Banks fell -1.87%, though they had dipped -4.3% at their troughs to touch the lowest level since September 2017.
As for credit, HY cash spreads in Europe and the US were +8.5bps and +14.8bps wider respectively. For context, US spreads are now at the widest since December 2016 and this is the best performing broad credit market over the last couple of years. In bond markets, 10y Treasuries rallied-2.4bps but was as much as 9bps lower intra-day. Thanks to an outperformance at the front end (two-year fell -3.7bps), the 2s10s curve actually ended a shade steeper at 13.0bps (+1.3bps on the day). However that move for the 10y now puts it at the lowest since September at 2.89%, and only +48.6bps above where we started the year. The spread on the Dec 19 to Dec 18 eurodollar contract – indicative for what is priced into Fed hikes for next year - is down to just 16bps. It was at 60bps in October. This certainly appears to be too low, though a Wall Street Journal article yesterday seemed to signal a willingness by the Fed to moderate its pace of rate hikes. Finally, in Europe, Bunds closed -4.1bps lower at 0.236%.
Quite amazing moves with Bunds continuing to defy all fundamental logic and trading instead as a risk-off lightning rod. There was some talk that the sharp moves lower at the open yesterday were exaggerated by the unexpected midweek close for markets in the US which resulted in futures systems failing to be programmed to adjust and orders backing up. However the combination of a -2.25% drop for WTI (-5.2% at the lows) post the OPEC meeting (more below) and the Huawei story that we mentioned yesterday certainly aided to the initial malaise. There was some talk that both the Chinese and US authorities would have been aware of the arrest before last weekend’s talks and as such this story shouldn’t be necessarily a threat to the truce, though Reuters reported last night that President Trump did not know about the planned arrest. The implications of this are unclear, since it could mean that Trump has less direct control over the arresting agency, but it could also indicate that the move is not part of trade policy. Either way, how this development will be key for the market moving forward, especially any response from Chinese officials.
This morning in Asia markets are largely trading higher with the Nikkei (+0.60%), Hang Seng (+0.21%), Shanghai Comp (+0.08%) and Kospi (+0.51%) all up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (-0.11%) are pointing towards a flattish start. Meantime crude oil (WTI -0.39% and Brent -0.60%) prices are continuing to trade lower this morning. It wouldn’t be an EMR worth it’s place in the daily schedule without an Italy and Brexit update. As we go to print Italian daily La Stampa has reported that the Italian Premier Conte and Deputy Premier Di Maio are in favour of the resignation of Finance Minister Tria while Deputy Premier Salvini is against his resignation. So signs of tension. In the U.K. a few press articles (like Bloomberg) are suggesting that PM May is considering postponing Tuesday’s big vote. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of substance to the story at the moment but it mentions going back to the EU for concessions on the Irish backstop as one possibility. How the EU will feel would be the obvious question.
As mentioned earlier, oil had a difficult session yesterday, falling back to its recent lows with WTI touching a $50 handle and Brent trading back below $60 per barrel. The first day of the OPEC summit did not appear promising for the odds of a new production deal, as the ministers apparently discussed a 1 million barrel per day cut, below the 1.5 million needed to balance the market.The Libyan oil minister abruptly left before the day’s meetings concluded, and the organization canceled their scheduled press conference. The Russian delegation will join the OPEC contingent today in an effort to finalize a deal, but Saudi Energy Minister al-Falih said that “Russia is not ready for a substantial cut.” Watch this space today.
Overnight, the Fed Chair Powell delivered an upbeat message on the US economy and the Job market ahead of today’s payrolls release. He said, “our economy is currently performing very well overall, with strong job creation and gradually rising wages,’’ while adding, “in fact, by many national-level measures, our labour market is very strong.’’ Elsewhere, the Fed’s John Williams said yesterday that the biggest challenge which the policy makers are facing is achieving a soft landing. He said, “we have a pretty strong economy -- unemployment pretty low, inflation near our goal -- it’s just managing a soft landing, keeping this expansion going for the next few years.”
So will the last employment report released this year (the December report comes out in early January) help markets to continue to form a base? The consensus for nonfarm payrolls today is for a 198k print, following the stronger-thanexpected 250k reading last month. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.3% mom which should be enough to keep the annual reading at +3.1% yoy while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%. Our US economists are more or less in line with the consensus with a 200k forecast and also expect earnings to climb +0.3% mom, however that would be consistent with a small tick up in the annual rate to +3.17% and the fastest pace since April 2009. They also expect the current pace of job growth to push the unemployment rate down to 3.6% which would be the lowest since December 1969.
Going into that, yesterday’s ADP employment change report for November was a tad disappointing at 179k (vs. 195k expected) while more interestingly the recent tick up in initial jobless claims held with the print coming in at 231k. The four-week moving average is now 228k and the highest since April having gotten as low as 206k in September. So the climb, while not yet at concerning levels, is certainly notable and worth watching now on a week to week basis. As for the other interesting data points yesterday, the October trade deficit was confirmed as reaching a new cyclical wide. The ISM non-manufacturing print for November was a relative positive after coming in at 60.7, up 0.4pts from October and ahead of expectations for a decline to 59.0. Worth noting is that the three-month moving average of non-manufacturing ISM is now the highest on record which is a fairly reliable lead indicator for private nonfarm payrolls. US durable goods orders for October were revised slightly higher to -4.3% mom from -4.4%, though the core measures stayed at 0.0% mom. Factory orders declined -2.1% mom, though both were nevertheless higher year-on-year.
As for the day ahead, the aforementioned November employment in the US will no doubt be front and centre, however, prior to that, we’ve October industrial production prints in Germany and France, along with Q3 labour costs in the former, and the final Q3 GDP revisions for the Euro Area (no change from +0.2% qoq second reading expected). We’ll also get the monthly inflation reporting for November in the UK. Also due out in the US is October wholesale inventories and trade sales, the preliminary December University of Michigan survey and October consumer credit. November foreign reserves data in China is also expected out at some point. Away from that the OPEC/OPEC+ meeting moves into the final day while the ECB’s Coeure and Fed’s Brainard are scheduled to speak. Today is also the day that Germany’s ruling CDU party elects a new chair to succeed Merkel. Our FX strategists noted yesterday that according to polls, the result should be a close call between general secretary Annegret Kramp-Karranbauer (AKK) and Friedrich Merz
. Broadly speaking, AKK stands for a continuation of the Merkel-era strategy of positioning the CDU at the centre of the political spectrum, whereas Merz stands for a sharpening of the party's traditional profile as a centre-right party. Last night our German economics team put out a piece explaining the event and suggesting that Merz would be good for the DAX and AKK good for the Euro.
BREAKING: TRUMP to delay UK trip -- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Aug. recess in jeopardy -- ISENSTADT: MITT shows signs of political revival -- SPOTTED at Mike Shields/Katie Walsh engagement party -- B’DAY: Greta van Susteren
by [email protected]
(Daniel Lippman) via POLITICO - TOP Stories
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- WE HEAR … There is a chance Congress will stay in session for part of August. There has been political pressure from some members of the House and Senate to stay in town and try to get some things done instead of take a five-week recess. The pressure will only increase if the Obamacare repeal and replace isn’t done in the next few weeks. Congress has just 27 days in session until the summer break. Maybe it's a blessing in disguise: many lawmakers have had to face angry constituents on trips home.
STATEMENTS FROM PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP from Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey -- at 8:22 a.m.: “The #FakeNews MSM doesn’t report the great economic news since Election Day. #DOW up 16%. #NASDAQ up 19.5%. Drilling & energy sector......way up. Regulations way down. 600,000+ new jobs added. Unemployment down to 4.3%. Business and economic enthusiasm way up- record levels!” … at 8:29 a.m.: “I believe the James Comey leaks will be far more prevalent than anyone ever thought possible. Totally illegal? Very ‘cowardly!’” … at 8:49 a.m.: “The Democrats have no message, not on economics, not on taxes, not on jobs, not on failing #Obamacare. They are only OBSTRUCTIONISTS!”
-- TWO QUICK THINGS: Many Democrats will privately agree with Trump that they oftentimes lack a coherent message. But Trump’s presidency has unified Democrats for the first time in a long time … Trump has majorities in the House and Senate, and he’s blaming Democrats for obstructing him.
**SUBSCRIBE to Playbook:http://politi.co/2lQswbh
BREAKING OVERSEAS -- TRUMP PUTS OFF U.K. VISIT -- THE GUARDIAN: “Donald Trump’s state visit to Britain put on hold: U.S. president told Theresa May he did not want trip to go ahead if there were large-scale public protests”: “Donald Trump has told Theresa May in a phone call he does not want to go ahead with a state visit to Britain until the British public supports him coming. The U.S. president said he did not want to come if there were large-scale protests and his remarks in effect put the visit on hold for some time. The call was made in recent weeks, according to a Downing Street adviser who was in the room. The statement surprised May, according to those present.” http://bit.ly/2reskVQ
Good Sunday morning. Jake will be on Steve Hilton’s new Fox News show “The Next Revolution” live from Los Angeles tonight at 9 p.m. East Coast time.
TRUMP stopped by a wedding at his country club in New Jersey last night. http://bit.ly/2t98Uhy
YOU’LL HEAR THIS QUOTE A LOT -- Donald Trump Jr. on Fox News, via the Washington Post: “‘When he tells you to do something, guess what? There’s no ambiguity in it, there’s no, ‘Hey, I’m hoping,'’ Trump said. ‘You and I are friends: ‘Hey, I hope this happens, but you’ve got to do your job.’ That’s what he told Comey. And for this guy as a politician to then go back and write a memo: ‘Oh, I felt threatened.’ He felt so threatened -- but he didn’t do anything.’ Trump also said that Comey’s testimony ‘vindicated’ the president and that everything in it was ‘basically ridiculous.’” http://wapo.st/2t9eJf5
ALEX ISENSTADT in DEER VALLEY, UTAH -- “Romney stokes speculation he’s weighing another political run: The 2012 GOP nominee is plotting how to help Republicans in the midterms, and he’s being coy about his own political future”: “Mitt Romney is once again testing his political power — critiquing President Donald Trump, raising money and campaigning for fellow Republicans, and not ruling out another run for office for himself. The 2012 GOP nominee is returning to the spotlight, six months after Trump -- the man Romney once savaged as unfit for the presidency -- nearly picked him to be secretary of state. …
“Spencer Zwick, a longtime Romney adviser and political gatekeeper, said he’d been inundated with appeals from Republican candidates asking the former GOP nominee to help them. Last week, Romney held his first fundraiser for a 2018 hopeful, an event benefiting Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, a Republican who has been fiercely critical of the president. Over the coming days, Romney is also expected to release a robo-call boosting Georgia Republican Karen Handel, who has been losing ground in a high-stakes June 20 special House election she had once been favored to win.
“‘All I can tell you is that the number of requests that Mitt has gotten in the last month to come to a district or to come to a state for a sitting senator — it’s like he’s a presidential candidate again, which I was surprised by,’ said Zwick, who doubles as a top political aide to House Speaker Paul Ryan. ‘There are only so many people in the party that can headline these things.’” http://politi.co/2rZkZ9X
-- THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE between Republicans wanting to take advantage of Romney’s fundraising prowess, and his running for office and garnering the support he needs to win.
SUNDAY BEST -- JOHN DICKERSON speaks with SEN. JAMES LANKFORD (R-OKLA.) on CBS’S “FACE THE NATION” -- DICKERSON: “On the question of influencing the investigation, again, thinking about the scale, on the one hand the president might have done something that was a little bit crossing a line but he’s a new guy to the job all the way to this question of obstruction of justice. Where do you put, knowing what you know about the president’s behavior, where do you put what he did on that scale?” LANKFORD: “I would say it’s very inappropriate. As Jim Comey said, it’s awkward to be able to have the president of the United States sitting down with someone in the F.B.I., the leadership of the F.B.I., to be able to have direct questions. And for the issue to come up about the Michael Flynn investigations, inappropriate. But the way that it was handled, with no follow-up, with no other press, with no other return to that topic, it looks like what I called a pretty light touch. If this is trying to interfere in a process of any investigation, it doesn’t seem like it was number one, very effective, and number two, came up more than once in a conversation. So this looks more like an inappropriate conversation than obstruction.”
-- SEN. JACK REED (D-R.I.) tells CHRIS WALLACE on “FOX NEWS SUNDAY” that Trump needs to be deposed on all Russia-related questions -- “[T]he deposition is not just about his conversations with Mr. Comey. There are issues with respect to his conversation with director of national intelligence Dan Coats, Admiral Rogers, the NSA director, his relationships with Manafort. By the time the special prosecutor Mr. Mueller is ready to depose or ask the president to speak under oath, there are a myriad of questions. So what I don’t want to see is simply, we’ll I just said I talk about Comey, I’m not talking about anything else. To resolve this situation he has to be prepared to speak on all these matters.”
-- PREET BHARARA speaks to GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS on ABC’S “THIS WEEK” -- STEPHANOPOULOS: “The president’s defenders, like Alan Dershowitz, say there’s no grounds for obstruction. You talked about that. And he, in fact, says that presidents have the constitutional right to fire FBI directors and investigations as much as they want. One of the president’s attorneys, Jay Sekulow, is coming up next. He says there’s no there there, no basis for obstruction. You’re a former prosecutor. Are -- is there evidence there ... to begin a case for obstruction?” BHARARA: “I think there’s absolutely evidence to begin a case. I think it’s very important for all sorts of armchair speculators in the law to be clear that no one knows right now whether there is a provable case of obstruction. It’s also true I think from based on what I see as a third party and out of government that there’s no basis to say there’s no obstruction.”
-- SEN. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) talks to BRIANNA KEILAR on CNN’s “STATE OF THE UNION” -- KEILAR: “I want to ask you about something the president has been cagey about, and that is these tapes, of course. So, I wonder if you would support issuing a subpoena to the White House. Right now, it’s just a request coming from Congress. Would you support issuing a subpoena for the recordings or any documents that might come from that?” COLLINS: “This is an issue that the president should have cleared up in his press conference. He should give a straight yes or no to the answer -- to the question of whether or not the tapes exist. And he should voluntarily turn them over not only to the Senate Intelligence Committee, but to the special counsel. So, I don’t think a subpoena should be necessary. And I don’t understand why the president just doesn’t clear this matter up once and for all.”
THE NEXT MAIN EVENT -- “Sessions will testify before Senate in Russia investigation,” by Kyle Cheney and John Bresnahan: “In a letter to his former colleagues in the House and Senate, Sessions canceled a planned appearance before Congress’ appropriations committees. Sessions said he instead plans to appear on Tuesday before the Intelligence panel to respond to questions stemming from FBI director James Comey’s bombshell testimony last Thursday. …
“If this is an open session ... Sessions will likely face a barrage of questions over his role in Comey’s dismissal, his independence from President Donald Trump, and allegations of additional unreported meetings with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak. Sessions has already recused himself from the Russia probe after failing to tell the Senate Judiciary Committee during his confirmation of two meetings with Kislyak, and there have been reports of additional sessions.” http://politi.co/2rOVc5P
-- SEN. DIANNE FEINSTEIN (D-CALIF.) told Brianna Keilar on “State of the Union” that she didn’t know if the hearing will be open.
INQUIRING MINDS WANT TO KNOW -- “What’s next for Comey? Maybe law, corporate work, politics,” by AP’s Eric Tucker: “So what’s next for James Comey? The former FBI director boldly challenged the president who fired him, accused the Trump administration of lying and supplied material that could be used to build a case against President Donald Trump. But after stepping away from the Capitol Hill spotlight, where he’s always seemed comfortable, the 56-year-old veteran lawman now confronts the same question long faced by Washington officials after their government service.
“His dry quip at a riveting Senate hearing that he was ‘between opportunities’ vastly understates the career prospects now available to him — not to mention potential benefits from the public’s fascination with a man who has commanded respect while drawing outrage from both political parties.” http://apne.ws/2sQlkMb
EYE-POPPING NUMBERS FROM WAPO’S KAREN TUMULTY in SANDY SPRINGS, GEORGIA -- “Trump looms over Georgia special election, a proxy battle for 2018”: “It is an arms race of money and organization. The latest fundraising report, filed Thursday, showed Ossoff raising an additional $15 million in the past two months, nearly quadruple what Handel brought in. With outside groups weighing in, the race has thus far cost more than $40 million -- far outpacing the previous record for a congressional race of nearly $30 million for a Florida contest in 2012.
“Polls indicate there are few voters still undecided. ‘The next 10 days are about turning out the base. There are more of us than them in the district. The more people who vote, the better,’ said Corry Bliss, who heads the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC affiliated with House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.). That organization alone plans to spend about $7 million in the race.” http://wapo.st/2rjhPM4
FASCINATING READ -- “Palantir goes from Pentagon outsider to Mattis’ inner circle,” by Jacqueline Klimas and Bryan Bender: “The Trump era has brought a change of fortune for a Silicon Valley software company founded by presidential adviser Peter Thiel — turning it from a Pentagon outcast to a player with three allies in Defense Secretary Jim Mattis' inner circle. At least three Pentagon officials close to Mattis, including his deputy chief of staff and a longtime confidante, either worked, lobbied or consulted for Palantir Technologies, according to ethics disclosures obtained by POLITICO. That’s an unusually high number of people from one company to have such daily contact with the Pentagon leader, some analysts say.
“It also represents a sharp rise in prominence for the company, which just months ago could barely get a meeting in the Pentagon. Last year, Palantir even had to go to court to force its way into a competition for a lucrative Army contract. Thiel was one of the only Silicon Valley titans to openly support Trump during the campaign, a role that gave him a prime speaking slot at last summer’s Republican convention. He has since acted as a key adviser arranging meetings among the president and other tech executives. While there's no evidence he had a direct hand in these specific Pentagon hires, analysts say they absolutely show his growing influence in the administration, where he holds no formal role.” http://politi.co/2sqMdbS
DEMOCRATS’ NEW PLAYBOOK -- “Democrats bet on Trump in Virginia governor’s race,” by Kevin Robillard: “Virginia’s Democratic primary on Tuesday is shaping up to be the first real test of liberalism in the Trump era, with both candidates lurching for increasingly leftward policies to position themselves in contrast with President Donald Trump. …
“Virginia’s gubernatorial elections often develop into contrasts with a new president, but there’s a stark difference between now and how Republican candidate Bob McDonnell handled then-President Barack Obama in 2009. While critical of the Obama's economic record, the future governor also regularly praised Obama for supporting school choice, straddling the partisan divide. The Democrats have felt no need to do the same with the less popular Trump, whose approval rating was at 36 percent in a recent Washington Post-George Mason University poll of Virginia.” http://politi.co/2rjHzYJ
THE LATEST ON HEALTH CARE -- “Fate of Planned Parenthood funding tied to Senate moderates,” by Jen Haberkorn: “Two female Senate Republicans could stop the anti-abortion movement from achieving its most significant win against Planned Parenthood in decades. Most Republicans want to eliminate the group’s $555 million in federal funding as part of their bill to repeal Obamacare. But as Majority Leader Mitch McConnell tries to solve the legislative Rubik’s Cube of finding 50 votes for repeal, he may have to drop the Planned Parenthood cut to win the support of the two Republican moderates, Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.” http://politi.co/2sbbpTf
WHAT SILICON VALLEY IS READING -- “Uber Board to Discuss CEO Travis Kalanick’s Possible Leave of Absence: Board also set to vote on recommendations from a report of an investigation into workplace issues,” by WSJ’s Greg Bensinger: “Uber Technologies Inc. Chief Executive Travis Kalanick will discuss taking a possible leave of absence when the board of directors of the embattled ride-hailing company meets Sunday morning, according to a person familiar with the matter.
“Also on the agenda when the seven-person board convenes is a vote on a series of recommendations from a report prepared by former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder regarding its workplace. It was uncertain whether Mr. Kalanick would ultimately take the leave or whether the board would approve of such a measure, which would require finding a temporary replacement in short order.” http://on.wsj.com/2r7Ram8
THE JUICE …
-- SPOTTED at Mitt Romney’s E2 Summit in Deer Valley, Utah: New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, Spencer Zwick, Matt Waldrip, Corry Bliss, Speaker Paul Ryan, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Kristen Soltis Anderson, Ron Kaufman, Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), Anthony Scaramucci, Bianna Golodryga, Will Ritter, Mary Bono Mack, Lanhee Chen, Leah Malone and Andrew Liveris.
RIP -- @SecondLady: “Rest in peace Oreo. You touched a lot of hearts in your little life. Our family will miss you very much.” http://bit.ly/2sgQOxR
‘WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT WEEK’ AT THE WHITE HOUSE -- “Donald and Ivanka Trump head to Wisconsin for jobs push,” by ABC News’ Jordyn Phelps: “President Donald Trump and his daughter Ivanka Trump are set to travel to Wisconsin Tuesday to join Gov. Scott Walker to tour a technical college, as the administration puts a renewed focus on its goal of job creation. The trip is just one event in a week full of activities built around promoting technical skills training and apprenticeships. [They are d]ubbing it ‘workforce development week’ ...
“The president is expected to make what the administration is billing as a ‘major policy speech’ at the Department of Labor on Wednesday, in which he’ll lay out steps the administration will take to encourage workforce development and also call for Congressional action. Ivanka Trump will also lead a roundtable with some 15 CEOs. On Thursday, the president will also host a roundtable discussion, where he will welcome eight governors from states with successful workforce development programs to the White House.” http://abcn.ws/2r7tOwT
THE NEW U.K. POLITICAL REALITY -- “For Britain, Political Stability Is a Quaint Relic,” by NYT’s Steven Erlanger in London: “In a little more than two years, Britain has had two general elections and a nationwide referendum. Each time, the politicians, pollsters, betting markets, political scientists and commentators have got it wrong.
“Once considered one of the most politically stable countries in the world, regularly turning out majority governments, Britain is increasingly confusing and unpredictable, both to its allies and itself. Far from settling the fierce divisions exposed by last year’s referendum on Britain’s exit from the European Union, or Brexit, the election on Thursday only made them worse.” http://nyti.ms/2shhy1i
-- THE POLITICO EUROPE TICK TOCK: “How Theresa May lost it: A reluctance to delegate, hubris and campaigning ineptitude ruined British prime minister’s grand plan to secure a mandate,” by Tom McTague, Charlie Cooper and Annabelle Dickson in London: “Halfway through Britain’s seven-week snap election campaign, some in Theresa May’s team came to the conclusion that they had a problem — the candidate. At a gathering of senior staff in Conservative campaign headquarters in central London, one of May’s top operatives told the sitting prime minister that she risked crashing and burning like Sarah Palin did in 2008. ... To the operative, May was overly controlling and her inexperience would tell during a short, intense campaign. May listened with good grace ... [but] changed nothing.” http://politi.co/2t8VuSG
ACTUAL FAKE NEWS – NYT A22, “A Pro-Trump Conspiracy Theorist, a False Tweet and a Runaway Story,” by Jeremy Peters: “A pro-Trump activist notorious for his amateur sleuthing into red herrings like the ‘Pizzagate’ hoax and a conspiracy theory involving the murder of a Democratic aide, Mr. Posobiec wrote on May 17 that Mr. Comey, the recently ousted F.B.I. director, had ‘said under oath that Trump did not ask him to halt any investigation.’ …
“But as the journey of that one tweet shows, misinformed, distorted and false stories are gaining traction far beyond the fringes of the internet. Just 14 words from Mr. Posobiec’s Twitter account would spread far enough to provide grist for a prime-time Fox News commentary and a Rush Limbaugh monologue that reached millions of listeners, forging an alternative first draft of history in corners of the conservative media where President Trump’s troubles are often explained away as fabrications by his journalist enemies.
“In this fragmented media environment, the spread of false information is accelerated and amplified by a web of allied activist-journalists with large online followings, a White House that grants them access and, occasionally, a president who validates their work. The right-wing media machine that President Bill Clinton’s aides once referred to as ‘conspiracy commerce’ is now far more mature, extensive and, in the internet age, tough to counter.” http://nyti.ms/2sbduPm
DEEP DIVES -- NYT A1, “Opioid Dealers Embrace the Dark Web to Send Deadly Drugs by Mail: Anonymous online sales are surging, and people are dying. Despite dozens of arrests, new merchants — many based in Asia — quickly pop up,” by Nathaniel Popper (print headline: “Drug Trade Rises in Dark Corners of the Internet”): “As the nation’s opioid crisis worsens, the authorities are confronting a resurgent, unruly player in the illicit trade of the deadly drugs, one that threatens to be even more formidable than the cartels. The internet. In a growing number of arrests and overdoses, law enforcement officials say, the drugs are being bought online. Internet sales have allowed powerful synthetic opioids such as fentanyl — the fastest-growing cause of overdoses nationwide — to reach living rooms in nearly every region of the country, as they arrive in small packages in the mail.” http://nyti.ms/2t91CdL
--“China’s New Bridges: Rising High, but Buried in Debt: China has built hundreds of dazzling new bridges, including the longest and highest, but many have fostered debt and corruption,” by NYT’s Chris Buckley: “The eye-popping structures have slashed travel times in some areas, made business easier and generated a sizable slice of the country’s economy, laying a foundation, in theory at least, for decades of future growth. But as the bridges and the expressways they span keep rising, critics say construction has become an end unto itself. Fueled by government-backed loans and urged on by the big construction companies and officials who profit from them, many of the projects are piling up debt and breeding corruption while producing questionable transportation benefits.” http://nyti.ms/2t9er7I
BONUS GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Daniel Lippman:
--“Bob Dylan’s Nobel Lecture”: “Some of these same things have happened to you. You too have had drugs dropped into your wine. You too have shared a bed with the wrong woman. You too have been spellbound by sweet voices with strange melodies. You too have come so far and have been so far blown back.” http://bit.ly/2rULMnO
--“How the D-Day Invasion Was Planned” – in the August 1944 issue of Popular Mechanics: “Every one of the thousands of men landed in France required about 10 ship tons of overall equipment, and an additional ship ton every 30 days. The number of separate items needed was about a million. Some of these million items had to be accumulated in millions, resulting in astronomical totals.” http://bit.ly/2smaY97
--“Eternal Champions,” by Sam Borden in ESPN: “Seven months ago, Brazilian underdogs Chapecoense boarded a plane to play in the game of their lives. Instead, their biggest moment turned into a tragedy no one can forget.” http://es.pn/2r9Y3aB
--“Inside Trump’s secretive immigration court: far from scrutiny and legal aid,” by The Guardian’s Oliver Laughland in Jena, Louisiana: “[T]he remote LaSalle detention facility is part of Trump’s attempt to fast-track deportations. A visit reveals a hastily arranged setup beset by flaws.” http://bit.ly/2scNvHQ
--“Rolling Stone at 50: How Hunter S. Thompson Became a Legend,” by Patrick Doyle in Rolling Stone – per The Browser’s description: “Sports Illustrated asked Hunter S. Thompson for 250 words about a Las Vegas motorbike race. He gave them 2,500 words — and when they spiked the piece he took it to Rolling Stone, which wanted more. The result was Fear And Loathing In Las Vegas, published in 1971. Thompson’s coverage of the 1972 presidential campaign ‘reshaped what it meant to write about politics’. But ‘getting work out of him was becoming difficult”. Editing him ‘was a bit like being a cornerman for Ali.’” http://rol.st/2smiHEk
--“Weddings of the 0.01 Percent,” by Julia Rubin in Racked: “Cristal! Caviar! Chris Martin! How the rich (and sometimes famous) get married.” http://bit.ly/2smtvCz
--“The truth about tarot,” by James McConnachie in Aeon Magazine: “Whether divining ancient wisdoms or elevating the art of cold reading, tarot is a form of therapy, much like psychoanalysis.” http://bit.ly/2sL1XDY
--“The Worst Ever First Day on the Job -- Punching In: My Life as a Long Haul Trucker,” by Finn Murphy in Literary Hub: “Moving companies perform four categories of moving work: local, commercial, long-distance, and international. Callahan’s work was mostly local moving, loading up someone’s house in the morning and then unloading in the afternoon at the new house. It takes the greatest toll on the body because you are handling stuff every working day. It’s the local stuff that eventually kills you or drives you to drink; more commonly, both.” http://bit.ly/2s4Nuoy
--“There Were Once Jews Here,” by Lucette Lagnado, author of “The Man in the White Sharkskin Suit: A Jewish Family’s Exodus from Old Cairo to the New World,” in Tablet Magazine: “During the Six-Day War, some of the Arab countries at war with Israel -- Egypt, Tunisia, Libya -- treated their Jewish populations terribly, causing them to leave en masse.” http://bit.ly/2t92OOk
... $10.01 on Amazonhttp://amzn.to/2sbmAeT
--“Dear Brazilian Government, Thanks for the Contracts,” by Michael Smith, Sabrina Valle, and Blake Schmidt on the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek: “There’s graft, and then there’s the graft machine perfected by Odebrecht, one of the world's biggest construction companies.” https://bloom.bg/2rOEHqr
… The coverhttp://bit.ly/2rjKL6H
--“‘Kill them, kill them, kill them’: the volunteer army plotting to wipe out Britain’s grey squirrels,” by Patrick Barkham in The Guardian: “The red squirrel is under threat of extinction across Britain. Their supporters believe the only way to save them is to exterminate their enemy: the greys. But are they just prejudiced against non-native species?” http://bit.ly/2re8OE6
--“This County Switched From Backing Obama to Trump. Here’s What Happened,” by Josh Siegel in The Daily Signal: “In 1980, manufacturing jobs comprised 38 percent of all jobs in Coos [New Hampshire]. In 2014, only 7 percent of jobs in the county were in manufacturing. Payroll wages from manufacturing have dropped from 49 percent to 9 percent since the mid-1980s.” http://bit.ly/2sL2A0v
SPOTTED: Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly enjoying “DHS Night” Friday night at the Nats game along with members of DHS’ workforce – pic http://bit.ly/2rjyfUM
... Anson Kaye, partner at GMMB, in New Orleans last night, accepting a Gold ADDY award (and also a Mosaic Award) for the ad “Mirrors” (http://bit.ly/2sbAIEM
) he created for Hillary for America
SPOTTED at State Department senior White House adviser Matt Mowers’ birthday party at Wet Dog Tavern last night (which coincidentally also hosted RNC alum Anna Epstein’s birthday party at the same time): Cassie Spodak, Ryan Williams, Zeke Miller, Ben Sparks, Jill Barclay, Phil Elliott, Ethan Zorfas, Ben DeMarzo, Maren Kasper, Michael Kratsios, Kailani Koenig, Tom Dickens, Elise Dietsch Dickens, Eric Jones, Alan He, Andy Polesovsky, Corey Ershow, Kelly Klass, Britt Carter.
SHIELDS/WALSH ENGAGEMENT PARTY -- THE BRITISH EMBASSY hosted an engagement party last night for Mike Shields, former RNC chief of staff and founder and partner at Convergence Media and Katie Walsh, former WH deputy chief of staff and former RNC chief of staff who is now senior advisor at America First Policies. Amb. Kim Darroch toasted the pair and called them the “ultimate political couple” and told the crowd how the couple got engaged in the Cabinet Room at 10 Downing Street, where the prime minister has met with his or her cabinet every week for 250 years. He also needled Mike, who has a British mother and is a big soccer fan, for supporting Ipswich, who he cast as much inferior to Chelsea in the Premier League. The food at the party included: herb-crusted fillet of lamb, goat’s cheese and beetroot, terrine of pork, and chili shrimp while desserts included mini Bakewell tart, strawberry tartlet and passion fruit mousse. Pics of the couplehttp://bit.ly/2sbk3Bp
… Reince Priebus taking a pic of the couple as they thanked friends for coming http://bit.ly/2rOGmfz
… The crowdhttp://bit.ly/2rOzjDs
SPOTTED: Reince and Sally Priebus, Sean and Rebecca Spicer, Steven Mnuchin and his chief of staff Eli Miller chatting on a walk around the gardens of the embassy, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Rob and Cindy Simms, Cara Mason, Jessica Ditto, Sarah and Dave Armstrong, Tim Pataki, Richard Walters, Rob Jesmer chatting with Sean Cairncross (Sean and Rob have been friends since they were 5 years old growing up in Minnesota), Brian O. Walsh, Josh Pitcock, Mike’s 15-year-old son Aidan Shields-Eads, Molly Donlin, Steven Law, Sam Feist, Mike Allen, Andrew Bremberg, Lew Eisenberg, Madeleine Westerhout, Johnny DeStefano, Renee Hudson, Michael Hoare, Lindsay Walters, Vanessa Morrone and Mike Ambrosini, Zach and Mallory Hunter.
ENGAGED --Andrew Feldman, principal of the progressive communications firm Feldman Strategies, proposed to his longtime girlfriend Megan Salzman Saturday night during Country Music Fest in Nashville. Megan is a communications manager at the early education advocacy group The First Five Years Fund. “Andrew and Megan met on OKCupid nearly four and a half years ago. Andrew points out that the ring has extra significant because the center stone was Megan’s mother’s engagement stone and she is no longer with us.” Pics http://bit.ly/2r7KrIZ
… The ringhttp://bit.ly/2rjzLGh
-- Jessica Huff, social media director for McClatchy in Dallas and a Politico alum, and Spenser Walters, an area sales rep for Duvel USA, got engaged on Friday night in Austin, Texas. She emails us: “We met in college at UT-Austin after he came back from Afghanistan. He was serving in the Marines. We had the same group of friends but I hadn’t met him yet since he was overseas. Once he was back, one of our first dates was at a restaurant in the hill country in Texas overlooking the lake, and so while visiting Austin he took me back there and proposed during sunset. It’s a very special place to us so it was perfect!” Picshttp://bit.ly/2shqCmX
… The ringhttp://bit.ly/2t9rnKO
WEEKEND WEDDINGS -- Travis Considine, communications manager at Uber Texas and a John McCain and Rick Perry alum, married Morgan Smith, a reporter with The Texas Tribune, on Saturday evening at the San Antonio Museum of Art. Guests enjoyed a bluegrass band and flawless weather at the outdoor ceremony and reception. Pichttp://bit.ly/2t9jc1c
… Travis’ speechhttp://bit.ly/2sQLqi2
SPOTTED: Tucker and Alexia Bounds, Brittany Bramell, Trevor Theunissen, Chris Miller, Allie Brandenburger and Ryan Mahoney, Kevin Benacci, Emily Ramshaw, Matt and Jen Hirsch, Evan Smith, Perrylanders Rob Johnson, Mark Miner, and Andy Hemming.
OBAMA ALUMNI – Meredith Carden, head of partnerships at Sidewire, got married this weekend to Micah Fergenson, law clerk at U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, in a small ceremony at Four Follies Farm in Tiverton, Rhode Island. The couple first met in 2009 when they were working for President Obama. Micah worked in the WH Counsel’s Office, and Meredith worked for FLOTUS in the East Wing. They lost touch, but were reintroduced by a mutual friend in 2015. Pichttp://bit.ly/2sb3PIq
--“Lily Rothman, Elihu Dietz” – N.Y. Times: “Ms. Rothman, 31, is the history and archives editor at Time magazine, overseeing its history coverage, Life.com and the magazine’s digital archive. She also wrote ‘Everything You Need to Ace American History in One Big Fat Notebook.’ She graduated magna cum laude from Yale and received a master’s degree in journalism from the City University of New York. ... Mr. Dietz, 32, is a candidate for a master’s degree in environmental management at the Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke, where he studies the integration of renewable energy into the grid. He graduated from St. John’s College in Santa Fe, N.M. ... The groom is a great-great-grandson and a namesake of Elihu Root, who was President Theodore Roosevelt’s secretary of state and the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 1912. He is also a direct descendant of President Ulysses S. Grant. The couple met on a blind date arranged by friends in Brooklyn in 2011.” With pic http://nyti.ms/2rZpO2N
--“Alison Kenworthy, Michael Koenigs”: “The bride and groom work at ABC News in New York, where they met. She is a news producer for ‘Good Morning America.’ He is a senior coordinating producer, creating content that is used on-air and on the website. He was also the host of ‘Election Cycle,’ a series in 2016 that featured him bicycling through swing states and interviewing voters along the way. The bride, 33, graduated from Rutgers. ... Mr. Koenigs, 30, graduated cum laude from Harvard.” With pichttp://nyti.ms/2t8GB2L
--“Julia Pudlin, David Wishnick”: “Ms. Pudlin, 32, worked until earlier this year at the United States Treasury Department as a deputy executive secretary in the chief of staff’s office and a senior adviser to the general counsel. On July 10 she is to begin working as the assistant deputy general counsel for government investigations at Comcast in Philadelphia. She graduated summa cum laude from Yale, and received a law degree magna cum laude from the University of Pennsylvania. ... Mr. Wishnick, also 32, was until recently an associate in the Washington office of Jenner & Block, a Chicago law firm. On July 12 he is to begin a fellowship, conducting research in contract law, at the University of Pennsylvania Law School. He graduated magna cum laude from Brown, and received a law degree from Yale. ... The couple met in April 2013 through the dating app Hinge.” With pichttp://nyti.ms/2rOZSIV
--“Victoria St. Martin, Richard G. Jones”: “The bride, 36, is a general assignment reporter on the local desk of The Washington Post. She graduated from Rutgers and received a master’s degree in journalism from American University. ... The groom, 46, is to become the director of the journalism program at Notre Dame. Until recently, he was an associate editor in news administration for The New York Times, as well as the director of the newspaper’s Student Journalism Institute. He graduated from the University of Delaware and has a master’s degree in journalism from Columbia. ... The couple were introduced in 2006 by a mutual friend in Yardley, Pa.” With pichttp://nyti.ms/2rOtYMA
BIRTHDAYS: Greta Van Susteren, the pride of Appleton, Wisconsin (hat tip: Tammy Haddad) ... Tad Devine, the pride of Providence who lives on Block Island, is 62 ... Kim Oates of the House Radio/TV gallery … Carrie Budoff Brown’s older sister, Jennifer Budoff, budget director for the D.C. City Council ... former Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) is 87 … Lindsey Williams Drath ... Jennifer Rubin ... Michael Timmeny, SVP for government and community relations at Cisco ... Jeremy Ben-Ami, president at J Street (h/ts Jon Haber) ... POLITICO’s Reid Pillifant, Emily Dobler and Juliette Medina ... South Dakota Gov. Dennis Daugaard is 64 ... Treasury alum David Cohen ... TJ Adams-Falconer, associate director of external affairs at Axios ... Rep. Mike Conaway (R-Tex.) is 69 ... Cesar Gonzalez, COS for Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart ... former Rep. Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.) is 59 ... DNC comms staffer and former HRC campaign media booker Lucas Acosta (h/t Crystal Carson) ...
... Will Rahn, managing editor for politics at CBS News digital, is 3-0 ... Jessica Franks, gov’t affairs representative for Halliburton ... Politico Europe’s Tanit Parada Tur ... Chris Campbell, Republican staff director at Senate Finance ... Kristina Edmunson ... Rachel Ruskin ... Obama alum Jonathan McBride, now a managing director at BlackRock … Mike Schoenfeld, the Blue Devils’ master of public affairs/Duke’s other Mike … Betsy Gotbaum, former NYC public advocate, is 79 ... Matt Chaban, policy director at Center for an Urban Future ... Mary Kate Cunningham ... Salesforce’s Tom Gavin, an Obama WH OMB alum … Michael Froehlich ... Caroline Barker ... Matthew Campbell ... Vanessa Chan, corporate comms. at Facebook ... Kelly Danielka Peirson ... Google’s Ramya Raghavan ... Tom Alexander, COO at 1871 Chicago and a Rahm alum ... Jacque Vilmain, the pride of Eagle Grove, Iowa(h/t Teresa) ... animal rights activist Ingrid Newkirk is 68 ... Power Playbooker Dr. Oz is 57 ... actor Hugh Laurie is 58 ... Shia LaBeouf is 31 (h/ts AP)
If you want to know who will win the election, ask a gambler Betting markets are more reliable than polls at predicting the outcome of a national vote, says Leighton Vaughan Williams Other British Politics Outrights. Next Conservative Leader View all odds; Year Of Next General Election View all odds; Boris Johnson Exit Date View all odds; Exit Dates - Jeremy Corbyn View all odds; Next SNP Leader View all odds; 15 Of Conservative Mps To Write To The 1922 Committee To Ask For A Vote Of Confidence In Boris Johns View all odds; Basic Pay For Nurses In England To Increase From Exit Polls at 10pm Tonight 2017 vs 2015 Election Market Nightmare for Labour UK General Election Spread Betting Markets As we head towards the last UK budget before the general election, Alastair McCaig from IG discusses the trading options available for those looking to take a position. The exit poll is released on the stroke of 10:00pm as polls close in the UK. It will then be at least an hour before there are any official results, and around three hours before the vast bulk of A woman walks past a general election display in the window of a betting shop in Camden on June 7, 2017 in London, United Kingdom. Britain goes to the polls tomorrow, Getty Images
The UK election 2015 explained for non-Brits General election 2015 - Duration: 4:29. The Guardian 94,640 views. 4:29. BBC: 2015 General Election (Part 2 of 2) - Duration: 5:21:54. Exit polls show Conservative Party leader and current Prime Minister Boris Johnson leading in the United Kingdom's general election. Mark Phillips and Amanda Sloat joined "Red & Blue" to explain ... UK election exit polls project victory for Boris Johnson's party - Duration: 4:18. Fox News 234,511 views. 4:18. Labour blame their loss on everyone but themselves - Duration: 2:40. Published on May 8, 2015 CNN's Nick Glass looks at the U.K. election roller-coaster, from the first exit poll predicting the outcome to the unexpected triumph by the Conservative Party. Category BBC Exit poll 1992-2017 - Duration: 9:57. ... John Oliver - UK Election 2015 - Duration: 4:44. Bob Pablo 156,871 views. 4:44. Robert Harris reports on the 1983 general election ...