Alright CYKAS, Drill Sgt. Retarded TQQQ Burry is in the house. Listen up, I'm gonna train yo monkey asses to make some motherfucking money.submitted by dlkdev to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
“Reeee can’t read, strike?” - random_wsb_autistBitch you better read if you want your Robinhood to look like this:
Why am I telling you this?
Because I like your dumb asses. Even dickbutts like cscqb4. And because I like seeing Wall St. fucking get rekt. Y’all did good until now, and Wall St. is salty af. Just google for “retail traders” news if you haven’t seen it, and you’ll see the salty tears of Wall Street assholes. And I like salty Wall St. assholes crying like bitches.
That said, some of you here are really motherfucking dense & the sheer influx of retardation has been driving away some of the more knowledgeable folks on this sub. In fact, in my last post, y'all somehow managed to downvote to shit the few guys that really understood the points I was making and tried to explain it to you poo-slinging apes. Stop that shit yo! A lot of you need to sit the fuck down, shut your fucking mouth and listen.
So I'm going to try and turn you rag-tag band of dimwits into a respectable army of peasants that can clap some motherfucking Wall Street cheeks. Then, I'm going to give you a mouthbreather-proof trade that I don't think even you knuckleheads can mess up (though I may be underestimating you).
If you keep PM-ing me about your stupid ass losses after this, I will find out where you live and personally, PERSONALLY, shit on your doorstep.
This is going to be a long ass post. Read the damned post. I don't care if you're dyslexic, use text-to-speech. Got ADHD? Pop your addys, rub one out, and focus! Are you 12? Make sure to go post in the paper trading contest thread first.
This shit is targeted at the mouthbreathers, but maybe more knowledgeable folk’ll find some useful info, idk. How do you know if you’re in the mouthbreather category? If your answer to any of the following questions is yes, then you are:
Table of Contents:
I. Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS
IV. Busting your retarded myths
V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
VI. The mouthbreather-proof trade - The Akimbo
VII. Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers
Chapter I - Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
I'm not here to rip you off. Every fucking time I post something, a bunch of dumbasses show up saying I'm selling you puts or whatever the fuck retarded thoughts come through their caveman brains.
"hurr durr OP retarded, OP sell puts" - random_wsb_autistSit down, Barney, I'm not here to scam you for your 3 cents on OTM puts. Do I always get it right? Of course not, dumbasses. Eurodollar play didn't work out (yet). Last TQQQ didn't work out (yet). That’s just how it goes. Papa Buffet got fucked on airlines. Plain retard Burry bought GME. What do you fucking expect?
Meanwhile, I keep giving y'all good motherfucking plays:
Chapter II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
Do you really understand what happened? Let's go through it.
I got in puts on 2/19, right at the motherfucking top, TQQQ at $118. I told you on 2/24 TQQQ ($108) was going to shit, and to buy fucking puts, $90ps, $70ps, $50ps, all the way to 3/20 $30ps. You think I just pulled that out of my ass? You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is?
Well, let's take a look at what the fuckstick Kevin Cook from Zacks wrote on 3/5:
How Many Sigmas Was the Flash Correction Plunge?
"Did you know that last week's 14% plunge in the S&P 500 SPY was so rare, by statistical measures, that it shouldn't happen once but every 14,000 years?"
On 3/5, TQQQ closed at $81. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right? That's what fuckstick says:
"Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences.Ahahaha, fuckstick bought TQQQ at $70, cuz that's what you do after a random 5-sigma move, right? How many of you dumbasses did the same thing? Don't lie, I see you buying 3/5 on this TQQQ chart:
Meanwhile, on 3/3, I answered the question "Where do you see this ending up at in the next couple weeks? I have 3/20s" with "under 30 imo".
Well good fucking job, because a week later on 3/11, TQQQ closed at $61, and it kept going.
Nomura: Market staring into the abyss
"The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).Let's see what Stephen Mathai-Davis, CFA, CQF, WTF, BBQ, Founder and CEO of Q.ai - Investing Reimagined, a Forbes Company, and a major fucktard has to say at this point:
"Our AI models are telling us to buy SPY (the SPDR S&P500 ETF and a great proxy for US large-cap stocks) but since all models are based on past data, does it really make sense? "Good job, fuckfaces. Y'all bought this one too, admit it. I see you buying on this chart:
Well guess what, by 3/18, a week later, we did get another 5 standard deviation move. TQQQ bottomed on 3/18 at $32.73. Still think that was just luck, punk? You know how many sigmas that was? Over 12 god-damn sigmas. 12 standard deviations. I'd have a much better chance of guessing everyone's buttcoin private key, in a row, on the first try. That's how unlikely that is.
"Hurr durr you said it's going to 0, so you're retarded because it didn't go to 0" - random_wsb_autistYeah, fuckface, because the Fed bailed ‘em out. Remember the $150b “overnight repo” bazooka on 3/17? That’s what that was, a bailout. A bailout for shitty funds and market makers like Trump's handjob buddy Kenny Griffin from Citadel. Why do you think Jamie Dimon had a heart attack in early March? He saw all the dogshit that everyone put on his books.
Yup, everyone got clapped on their stupidly leveraged derivatives books. It seems Citadel is “too big to fail”. On 3/18, the payout on 3/20 TQQQ puts alone if it went to 0 was $468m. And every single TQQQ put expiration would have had to be paid. Tens or hundreds of billions on TQQQ puts alone. I’d bet my ass Citadel was on the hook for a big chunk of those. And that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to all the other blown derivative trades out there.
Y’all still did good, 3/20 closed at $35. That’s $161m/$468m payoff just there. I even called you the bottom on 3/17, when I saw that bailout:
"tinygiraffe21 1 point 2 months ago
"hurr durr, it went lower on 3/18 so 3/17 wasn't the bottom" - random_wsb_autistIdiot, I have no way of knowing that Billy boy Ackman was going to go on CNBC and cry like a little bitch to make everyone dump, so he can get out of his shorts. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it.
Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything? No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags.
Video of Billy & the Fed train
Here's what Billy boy says:
“But if they don’t, and the government takes the right steps, this hedge could be worth zero, and the stock market could go right back up to where it was. So we made the decision to exit.”https://www.businessinsider.sg/bill-ackman-explains-coronavirus-trade-single-best-all-time-podcast-2020-5
Also, “the single best trade of all time.” my ass, it was only a 100-bagger. I gave y’all a 150-bagger.
So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp.
Chapter III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS
RULE 1. YOU NEVER BUY OPTIONS AT OPEN. You NEVER OVERPAY for an option. You never FOMO into buying too fast. You NEVER EVER NEVER pump the premium on a play.
I saw you fuckers buying over 4k TQQQ 5/22 $45 puts in the first minutes of trading. You pumped the premium to over $0.50 dudes. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. Let me explain simply:
Let's say a put on ticker $X at strike $50 is worth $1, and a put at strike $51 is worth $2.
If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher. If you overpay at $2 for the $50p, the market maker will just buy $51ps for $2 and sell you $50ps for 2$. Or he'll buy longer-dated $50ps and sell you shorter-dated $50ps. Max risk for him is now 0, max gain is $1. You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats.
You need to get in with patience, especially if you see other autists here wanting to go in at the same time. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. If it doesn't fill, AND the price of the option hasn't moved much recently, you can bump the bid $0.01. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all? You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later.
RULE 2. WATCH THE TIME. Algos are especially active at x:00, x:02, x:08, x:12, x:30 and x:58. Try not to buy at those times.
RULE 3. YOU USE MULTIPLE BROKERS. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. If you don't have another one, open up a tasty, IB, TD, Schwab, whatever. But for cheap faggy puts (or calls), Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money!", Robinhood is the best. Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays.
RULE 4. YOU DON'T START A TRADE WITH BIG POSITIONS. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you. You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to
RULE 5. MANAGING YOUR WINNERS: Your position going for you? Good job! Now POUND THAT SHIT! And again. Move your strikes to cheaper puts/calls, and pound again. And again. Snowball those gains.
RULE 6A. POUND THOSE $0.01 PUTS:
So you bought some puts and they’re going down? Well, the moment they reach $0.01, YOU POUND THOSE PUTS (assuming there’s enough time left on them, not shit expiring in 2h). $0.01 puts have amazing risk/return around the time they reach $0.01. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? Well it’s the reverse of that.
RULE 6B. MANAGING YOUR LOSERS:
Your position going against you? Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? WRONG DUMBASS. You manage that by POUNDING THAT SHIT. Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around. You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage. The market can only react. That's your edge, so USE IT! Like this:
Initial TQQQ 5/22 position = $5,000. Starts losing? You pound it.
Total pounded in 5/22 TQQQ puts = $10,824. Unfortunately expired worthless (but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads)
Then the autists show up:
"Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?" - cscqb4Wrong fuckface. You see the max pain at SPX 2975 & OPEX pin coming? Sell them some calls or puts (or spreads).
Sold 9x5/20 SPX [email protected], bam +$6,390. Still wanna pin? Well have some 80x5/22 TQQQ $80cs, bam anotha +$14,700.
+$21,090 - $10,824 = +$10,266 => Turned that shit into a +94.85% gain.
You have a downside position, but market going up or nowhere? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit.
5/22, long weekend coming right? So you use your brain & try to predict what could happen over the 3-day weekend. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play. I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play.
Sold some ES_F spreads (for those unaware, ES is a 50x multiplier, so 1 SPX = 2 ES = 10 SPY, approximately). -47x 2955/2960 bear call spreads for $2.5. Max gain is $2.5, max loss is 2960-2955 = $5. A double-or-nothing basically. That's $5,875 in premium, max loss = 2x premium = $11,750.
Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3,014 now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. How?
47x 2960 calls
-47x 2955 calls
Pajama traders getting all up in my grill? Well then I buy back 1 of the 2955 calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over 2980, around 2982-ish. Paid $34.75, initially shorted at $16.95, so booked a -$892 loss, for now. But now what do I have?
46x 2955/2960 bear calls
1x 2960 long call
So the fuckers can pump it. In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make. Each $2.5 move up in the futures covers the max loss for 1 spread. With SPX now at ~3015, that call is $55 ITM. Covers 24/46 contracts rn. If they wanna run it up, at 3070 it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over 3050 if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? well under 2960 it's profit time again. They wanna do a shitty pin at 3000 today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there.
Later edit: that was written yesterday. Got out with a loss of only $1.5k out of the max $5,875. Not bad.
And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position.
RULE 7 (ESPECIALLY FOR BEARS). YOU DON'T KEEP EXTRA CASH IN YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker. But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Why? Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans. Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. Your individual cash probably doesn't make a dent, but a million autists with an extra $1200 trumpbucks means $1.2b. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Even if it's FDIC or SIPC insured, it's gonna take time until you see that money again.
Chapter IV. BUSTING YOUR RETARDED MYTHS
MYTH 1 - STONKS ONLY GO UP
Do you think the market can go up forever? Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr? Do you think SPX will be at 5000 by the end of the month? Do you think $1.5 trillion is a good entry point for stonks like AAPL or MSFT? Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap? Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2? Well, this section is for you!
Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs.
What's your target for the SPX top? Think 3500 by the end of the year? 3500 by September? 4000? 4500? 5000? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables.
Let's say SPX only goes up, a moderate 0.5% each period as a compounded avg. (i.e. up a bit down a bit whatever, doesn't matter as long as at the end of your period, if you look back and do the math, you'll get that number). Let's call this variable BRRR = 0.005.
Can you do the basic math to calculate the value at the end of x periods? Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you.
Let's say our period is one week. That is, SPX goes up on average 0.5% each week on Fed BRRR:
2950 * (1.005^x), where x is the number of periods (weeks in this case)
So, after 1 month, you have: 2950 * (1.005^4) = 3009
After 2 months: 2950 * (1.005^8) = 3070
End of the year? 2950 * (1.005^28) = 3392
Now clearly, we're already at 3015 on the futures, so we're moving way faster than that. More like at a speed of BRRR = 1%/wk
2950 * (1.01^4) = 3069
2950 * (1.01^8) = 3194
2950 * (1.01^28) = 3897
Better, but still slower than a lot of permabulls would expect. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX 4000-4500 by September. Like this dude, David Hunter, "Contrarian Macro Strategist w/40+ years on Wall Street". IDIOTIC.
That'd be 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4000 => BRRR = 1.0257 and 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4500 => BRRR = 1.0358, respectively.
Here's why that can't happen, no matter the amount of FED BRRR: Leverage. Compounded Leverage.
There's currently over $100b in leveraged etfs with a 2.5x avg. leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. TQQQ alone is now at almost $6b in AUM (topped in Fed at a little over $7b).
Now, let's try to estimate what happens to TQQQ's AUM when BRRR = 1.0257. 3XBRRR = 1.0771. Take it at 3XBRRR = 1.07 to account for slippage in a medium-volatility environment and ignore the fact that the Nasdaq-100 would go up more than SPX anyway.
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^4) = $7,864,776,060
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^8) = $10,309,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^12) = $13,513,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^28) = $39,893,000,000.
What if BRRR = 1.0358? => 3XBRR = 1.1074. Take 3XBRRR = 1.10.
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^4) = $8,784,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^8) = $12,861,500,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^12) = $18,830,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^28) = $86,526,000,000
And this would have to get 3x leveraged every day. And this is just for TQQQ.
Let's do an estimation for all leveraged funds. $100b AUM, 2.5 avg. leverage factor, BRRR = 1.0257 => 2.5BRRR = 1.06425
$100b * (1.06^4) = $128.285b
$100b * (1.06^8) = $159.385b
$100b * (1.06^12) = $201.22b
$100b * (1.06^28) = $511.169b
That'd be $1.25 trillion sloshing around each day. And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable.
In the long run, it doesn't matter if the Fed goes BRRR, if TQQQ takes in it's share of 3XBRRR. And the Fed can't go 3XBRRR, because then TQQQ would take in 9XBRRR. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things. Watch (or rewatch) this: Selena Gomez & Richard H. Thaler Explaining Synthetic CDO through BLACKJACK
My general point, at the mouth-breather level, is that Fed BRRR cannot be infinite, because leverage.
And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. TQQQ and SQQQ started out at $8m each. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. When TQQQ made a million, SQQQ lost a million (minus a small spread, which was the bank's profit). Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened. Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular.
And so, TQQQ ended up being $6-7b, while SQQQ was at $1b. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. Long leveraged ETF AUM became disproportionate to short AUM. And it matters a whole fucking lot. Because if you think of the casino, TQQQ walks up every day and says "I'd like to put $18b on red", while SQQQ walks up and says "I'd only like to put $3b on black". And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge. Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself.
If you were a time traveller, how much money do you think you could make by trading derivatives? Do you think you could make $20 trillion? You know the future prices after all... But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Call it the Time-travelling WSB Autist Paradox.
If you had a bucket with a hole in the bottom, even if you poured an infinite amount of water into it, it would never be full. Because there's a LIQUIDITY SINK, just like there is one in the markets.
And that, my mouth-breathing friends, is the reason why FED BRRR cannot be infinite. Or alternatively, "STONKS MUST GO BOTH UP AND DOWN".
MYTH 2 - YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET
On Jan 14, 2020, I predicted this: Assuming that corona doesn't become a problem, "AAPL: Jan 28 $328.3, Jan 31 $316.5, April 1 $365.7, May 1 $386, July 1 $429 December 31 $200."
Now take a look at the AAPL chart in January. After earnings AAPL peaked at $327.85. On 1/31, after the 1st hour of trading, when the big boys make moves, it was at $315.63. Closed 1/31 at $309.51. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too?
Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. And these days, we have a whole lot of RETARDED FLOW. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Stuff like:
And many many others. Spot the flow, and you get an edge. How could I predict where AAPL would be after earnings within 50 cents and then reverse down to $316 2 days later? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? Well, AAPL earnings (The 8-K) come out on a Wednesday. The next morning, after market opens the 10-Q comes out. And that 10-Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares. But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the 10-Q. And that gives you EDGE. Which leads to
MYTH 3 - BUYBACKS DON'T MATTER
Are you one of those mouthbreathers that parrots the phrase "buybacks are just a tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders"? Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. Second bit:
On 1/28, AAPL's market cap is closing_price x free_float_outstanding_shares. But that's not the REAL MARKET CAP. Because the number of outstanding shares is OLD AS FUCK. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on.
"But ETFs won't change the number of shares they hold, they will still hold the same % of AAPL in the index" - random_wsb_autist
Oh my fucking god you're dumb as fuck. FLOWS change. And the next day, when TQQQ comes by and puts its massive $18b dong on the table, the market will hedge that differently. And THAT CAN BE PREDICTED. That's why AAPL was exactly at $316 1 hour after the market opened on 1/31.
So, what can you use to spot moves? Let me show you:
Market topped on 2/19. Here’s SPY. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines.
Nobody could have seen it coming, right? WRONG AGAIN. Here:
In fact, JPYUSD gave you two whole days to see it. Those are NOT normal JPYUSD moves. But hey maybe it’s just a fluke? Wrong again.
Forex showed you that all over the place. Why? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH. It doesn’t matter why, but remember people pulling cash out of ATMs all over the world? Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means.
But it wasn’t just forex. Gold showed it to you as well. Bonds showed it to you as well.
Even god damn buttcoin showed it to you.
And they all did it for 2 days before the move hit equities.
Chapter V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
You see all these bankruptcies that happened so far, and all the ones that are going to follow? Do you think that’s just dogshit companies and it won’t have major effects on anything outside them? WRONG.
Because there’s a lot of leveraged instruments on top of those equities. When the stock goes to 0, all those outstanding puts across all expirations get instantly paid.
Understand that Feb-March was a liquidity MOAB. But this will end with a liquidity nuke.
Here’s just HTZ for example: $239,763,550 in outstanding puts. Just on a single dogshit small-cap company (this thing was like $400m mkt. cap last week).
And that’s just the options on the equity. There’s also instruments on etfs that hold HTZ, on the bonds, on the ETFs that hold their bonds, swaps, warrants, whatever. It’s a massive pile of leverage.
Then there’s also the ripple effects. Were you holding a lot of HTZ in your brokerage margin account? Well guess what big boi, when that gaps to 0 you get a margin call, and then you become a liquidity drain. Holding long calls? 0. Bonds 0. DOG SHIT!
And the market instantly goes from holding $x in assets (HTZ equity / bonds / calls) to holding many multiples of x in LIABILITIES (puts gone wrong, margin loans, derivatives books, revolvers, all that crap). And it doesn’t matter if the Fed buys crap like HTZ bonds. You short them some. Because when it hits 0, it’s no longer about supply and demand. You get paid full price, straight from Jerome’s printer. Is the Fed going to buy every blown up derivative too? Because that's what they'd have to do.
Think of liquidity as a car. The faster it goes, the harder it becomes to go even faster. At some point, you can only go faster by driving off a cliff. THE SQUEEZE. But you stop instantly when you hit the ground eventually. And that’s what shit’s doing all over the place right now.
And just like that fucker, “I’m standing in front of a burning house, and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.”
Now is not the time to baghold junk. Take your cash. Not the time to buy cheap crap. You don’t buy Hertz. You don’t buy USO. You don’t buy airlines, or cruises, or GE, or motherfucking Disney. And if you have it, dump that shit.
And the other dogshit that’s at ATH, congrats you’re in the green. Now you take your profits and fucking dump that shit. I’m talking shit like garbage SaaS, app shit, AI shit, etc. Garbage like MDB, OKTA, SNAP, TWLO, ZM, CHGG etc.
And you dump those garbage ass leveraged ETFs. SQQQ, TQQQ, whatever, they’re all dogshit now.
The leverage MUST unwind. And once that’s done, some of you will no longer be among us if you don’t listen. A lot of leveraged ETFs will be gone. Even some non-leveraged ETFs will be gone. Some brokers will be gone, some market makers will be gone, hell maybe even some big bank has to go under. I can’t know which ones will go poof, but I can guarantee you that some will. Another reason to diversify your shit. There’s a reason papa Warrant Buffet dumped his bags, don’t think you’re smarter than him. He may be senile, but he’s still a snake.
And once the unwind is done, THEN you buy whatever cheap dogshit’s still standing.
Got it? Good.
You feel ready to play yet? Alright, so you catch a move. Or I post a move and you wanna play it. You put on a small position. When it’s going your way, YOU POUND DAT SHIT. Still going? Well RUSH B CYKA BLYAT AND PLANT THE GOD DAMN 3/20 $30p BOMB.
Chapter VI - The mouthbreather-proof play - THE AKIMBO
Still a dumbass that can’t make a play? Still want to go long? Well then, I got a dumbass-proof trade for you. I present to you THE AKIMBO:
STEP 1. You play this full blast. You need some real Russian hardbass to get you in the right mood for trading, cyka.
STEP 2. Split your play money in 3. Remember to keep extra bankroll for POUNDING THAT SHIT.
STEP 3. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy SQQQ 9/18 $5p, pay $0.05. Not more than $0.10.
STEP 4. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy TQQQ 9/18 $20p, pay around $0.45. Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous, 7/17 $35p’s for around $0.5.
STEP 5. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy VIX PUT SPREADS 9/15 $21/$20 spread for around $0.15, no more than $0.25. That is, you BUY the 21p and SELL the 20p. Only using Robinhood and don’t have the VIX? What did I just tell you? Well fine, use UVXY then. Just make sure you don’t overpay.
Chapter VII - Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers
Quick tips, cuz apparently I'm out of space, there's a 40k character limit on reddit posts. Who knew?
Good luck. Dr. Retard TQQQ Burry out.
I'm going to give an honest look at my DD for this week, show you what I see in the macro landscape, and provide insight into how I'll try and make money. Caution, my last play didn't go well:submitted by kjtocool to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
A Bullish CaseStock market rallies don't simply end because people wake up one day in mass and decide things are over priced. There's a catalyst. Lacking a catalyst, assuming current assumptions around the COVID-19 recovery hold true, it's fair to expect the market to work higher. Sprinkle in FED action, which while down 89% from it's 3/25 peak, still dumped another $65 billion into the financial system.
Bulls are expecting a quick recovery, and while battered, they haven't been knocked off that position. There's continued discussion around a vaccine, optimism, stage 2 trials, and numerous companies and universities pursuing it. We're north of 300k daily tests, and the positive test rate is declining, states are reopening, we got through Easter, and we found remdesivir effective. P/E is high, but even if you believe that governments are propping equities up, this ponzi scheme still puts US equities at the top, likely to bleed the least and profit the most. It's not to say a dip wasn't warranted, it was just an over-reaction, hope you enjoyed the ride back to appropriate valuations.
Money right now is easy. Interest rates are low, and will remain there, maybe even negative, with a FED heavily accommodating of markets. Liquidity is flowing like rain, banks across the globe are jumping on the QE train. Shorting the market is shorting the governments ability to continue the rally, and as Buffet says, don't bet against America.
Oh, and guess what, Congress is going to hand everyone more money.
A Bearish CaseDespite the optimism, the Fed can't create demand. Consumer spending is not going to come back to where it was. Millions will remain unemployed, the jobs aren't all coming back. The idea of a V shaped recovery is ridiculous, even a U shaped recover is irrational. Given the market expects such a recovery, the theta from news is going to burn bulls, day over day as the recovery doesn't manifest with the expected velocity, gravity of expectations will pull bulls to the ground.
June will see auto delinquencies appear in servicer reports, by end of July extensions 3 month payment extensions run out, auto repossessions will begin again, and the extra unemployment comes to a close. With September comes standard unemployment insurance running out for initial layoffs, followed by the end of our foreclosure moratorium.
Now imagine we never get a vaccine, it's never proved easy for other SARs diseases, why would this one be any different? The market hasn't priced in a significant bounce. States reopening too soon. The US outside NY/NJ/PA still rising in case counts, and people are sick of being quarantined. Oh, and good luck getting the US culture to adopt masks.
The market expects COVID to be beaten, when the reality is it needs to be endured. We've shot most of our stimulus shots, we shot wildly and while some hit, we wasted too much and we will pay in time. This virus will be with us for years, and so will the impacts. The world is heading for a recession, and they'll drag the US right down with them.
My TakeBoth cases above have some FUD, but both also have merits.
First, separate Main Street (consumer and production economy) from Wall Street (financial markets), as they are different. The FED can do wonders for financial markets and in turn Wall Street, but it can't manifest demand. Congress can. Stimulus can.
There likely will be another round of stimulus and it'll boost spending, can kicked down the road. Now it may not come until June, but US equities are strong and as long as the assumption holds, so will the near term impact of it's expected arrival. Sure, the house of cards may fall in time, but what's going to bring it down? We lack a clear short term catalyst.
The bulls ate more straw off our camel's back than bears threw on. States are reopening, there's talk of more stimulus, curves are flattening, positive treatments, vaccine's progressing, and the market is recovering. The bearish news is the unknown, the whispers in the wind, we'll see in two weeks, wait until September, and the reality that so much is wrong with Main Street, that things can't be this positive with Wall Street. Can't say they're wrong, but they don't weigh as much. The market's priced in awful Q2 results, with no guidance, and a market that by it's nature wants to rise, there's little besides whispers to hold it down.
In Search of a CatalystSo what could bring what we feel, and the equity market into better alignment? We need a catalyst, some options:
Right now, my sentiment is short term bull. Medium term uncertain. Long term bear. Unclear on if we've found bottom. This past week has trended bullish across the board.
The Next PlayThe only thing this weekend tells me is: be patient. It's unclear our direction, even in the near term. I could make a case in either direction. This week, is going to be a short term week. I'll avoid holding overnight, avoid going long (barring very clear signals), and will play the swings (up or down) as my TA dictates.
I like to end "plays" when a theme shifts, it helps me avoid chasing losses, so that's what I'm doing and I now consider my prior play done, and failed. I've allocated another $5000 to a new play, I'll call this play "Patiently Waiting". I expect most positions this week to be smaller, in the $500 to $1000 range, in and out, and I'll be surprised if I fully deploy my allocated capital at one time.
I don't have a planned entry. I doubt I do anything before noon on Monday, if Monday at all. I'll create a shorter post once I find my entry, and will track critical TA for the week as well as the profitability of the play in there.
TLDRThere's a bull case, there's a bear case, the bull's had a stronger week. Many links, much news. No clear TA giving confidence in a position, will take short term day trades while waiting for clarity to emerge, will add a post later to track how much I lose.
Updates5/12 @ 7:00 : I said I'd make a new post when I found a move, but also said I didn't think I'd do much Monday. I ended up not doing anything Monday.
We saw a major wedge break on the 23rd of April. As it's downside break failed, a new wedge started forming, which lead to my exit from my prior play. The wedge has continued to hold since. I hesitate to trade it yet, but it's a converging indicator along with the .618 FIB retracement, you can see the two together formed a strong resistance to the upward movement on the 8th and 11th, forming a double top. The wedge says it's time to retest the bottom support, and in theory we should see movement downward today into tomorrow.
I'm not planning to play it, but you could enter some 5/15 290p if you see it bounce top of wedge today. You'd need to exit by tomorrow at latest, exit by EOD may be the best play, really depends on where it goes.
5/13 @ 7:00 : Bummer. Life got in the way of about a 200% gain trade, would have opened around 1.3 and closed north of 4 on a 5/15 290p. I didn't get to play it. The wedge was strengthened by yesterday's movement:
SPY this morning, 200d EMA on 1 HR interval acting as support
ES and the same wedge
Above you'll see SPY and a slight dip out of wedge, open will see us right back in. ES never broke wedge due to lower lows on 5/4. It's a better than average bet we stay in wedge today, which gives us a 6 point 287 to 293 range. SPY closes with support at 287 in wedge, yet on the ES, the wedge supports at 282, truth might be somewhere in the middle.
If we open 286.5 to 287 range, I'll enter a 3-4 contract position of 288c. Be mindful, everyone thinks the FED buying ETFs is a tailwind, I see it as a short term headwind given the outflow of equities to the newfound safety in those bonds as a result. But that's a macro view, and this week, I'm intraday.
5/14 @ 7:00 : Let's start with unemployment. The estimate for claims this week is 2.7m, the smallest gain in 8 weeks, but still pushing us to over 35 million unemployed since early March. Some estimates have ~5m people returning to work in the past few weeks, but the flow is still higher towards layoffs. They've been button on of late with estimates, I expect them +/- 250k, anything with a 2 in the front isn't going to move the needle.
As to market direction ...
.5 FIB Supporting
Bears couldn't break the .5 FIB, it held back on 5/4 and it held yesterday, though saw 15% more volume this go and was a deeper cut at breaking. We have had two straight large red days, we bounced off a support line, and are in oversold territory (that indicator flashed literally right as we bounced off the FIB, trended down since).
A really nice bear case would see us retest the FIB, break it, and thus the neckline, forming a really nice head and shoulders from the 4/5 time frame. I don't see it as likely, but breaking the 280-279 churn sees us down towards 272-273.
Don't trade this as a prediction, lazily drawn example.
A more likely scenario is we track the 5/4 bounce, but don't bounce as high, before regrouping to retest the FIB once more.
Our rising channel from the bottom.
We've been in a rising channel for some time, quickly bounced into the churn zone, decided we were bullish, and started tracking the upper segment with support holding all the while. Of late we're fading, and there are signs it's time to give our supports a good test. The natural rise in the channel paired with fading momentum could cause us to naturally coil for a while before enough energy returns for a strong move.
I'll be watching today, might look to enter a 5/15 283c position, not something that would look to track the full height of the rebound, rather the initial velocity and bounce, which should occur today into AH assuming we confirm that as our direction.
5/14 @ 7:30 : On 5/12 we saw the wedge, and thought it's likely it bounces off the top and test support. On 5/13 it did just that. On 5/14 we expected a bounce off the .5 FIB, and that's what we got:
Blue are yesterday's expectations, green what we got. Don't trade that second bounce yet.
5/4's bounce was 115 points, current was 96. The 5/4 pullback was 68 points or 54% of bounce, current is 37 points or 39% of bounce (though still forming, assuming 2824 holds as support). 5/4's continuation bounce was 121 points or 105%, let's assume we get 83% of that bounce (same as initial comparatively), that would see us to about 2924. You'll notice that aligns with my hastily drawn bounce chart yesterday.
If gravity is taking hold, you'd expect our second bounce on the second test of the FIB to be smaller, the second dip could go either way:
A head and shoulders that I don't quite believe in.
There's a weak head and shoulders that strengthens with a downturn. I don't put much stock in it, but fun to watch anyways. For whatever reason, I just can't get on board with a really bearish short term outlook.
Our general channel
Instead, my gut tells me we stay in this rising channel, trending towards the middle chop zone. That leaves the market very sideways, with energy continuing to coil, for what could then break either direction, though which my gut says breaks downward. Feels like a roller coaster just being released after riding up, yet we're in the front car, and the back car hasn't been set free.
Possible plays: Day trade scalping ... Wait for us to bottom, into calls for rebound ... AAPL calls during rebound ... or given 2824 doesn't seem to have held (for now) go permabear and jump into puts! I'm probably staying cash today. If I had the time, I'd wait for the dip to bottom, then day trade scalp the upward momentum until it stalls (which is the same thing I did yesterday).
submitted by extriniti to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
Cineplex (TSX: $CGX)
CINEPLEX INC (TSX: $CGX ) STOCK OPPORTUNITY
Another great medium risk but high potential return stock. The stock has taken a beating because of Covid19 & movie theater closures.
Investors think Cineworld's C$34/share buyout offer will be cancelled, yet Reuter's reported, "Cineworld Says No Change In Co's Position On Cineplex Takeover Since March" on April 7. That's double your money at C$11.69 (at post) if it goes through.
Investors also think Cineplex will cancel their monthly $0.15 per share dividend in their next ER that they delayed until June 29, 2020.
Investors are discounting Cineplex's possible rise of online movie rentals to offset their onsite losses.
The odds don't get better than this but do your Due Diligence before investing.
The Motley Fool described Cineplex as having a "virtual monopoly" over the cinema market in Canada.
#StockPick $CGX -- #ShakingTheTree with #Shorts hitting all the #Bulls #StopLoss down. Easy double or triple opportunity here. Do your #DueDiligence. Good luck to all.
#StockPick #CGX $CGX $CGX.TO
MY DUE DILIGENCE:---------------------------------------------
52 Week Range:
Low: C$6.30 (Coronavirus Crash)
High: C$34.39 (Buyout Offer)
CGX Stock Performance
Cineplex Inc., formerly known as Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund and Galaxy Entertainment Inc. is a Canadian entertainment company headquartered in Toronto, Ontario. Through its operating subsidiary Cineplex Entertainment LP, Cineplex operates 165 theatres across Canada. The company operates theatres under numerous brands, including Cineplex Cinemas, Cineplex Odeon, SilverCity, Galaxy Cinemas, Cinema City, Famous Players, Scotiabank Theatres and Cineplex VIP Cinemas.
On December 16, 2019, Cineplex announced a definitive agreement to be acquired by the British cinema operator Cineworld Group, the second-largest film exhibitor worldwide, pending shareholder and regulatory approval. Cineworld would be paying $34 per-share—a 42% premium over Cineplex's share price prior to the announcement, valuing the company at CDN$2.8 billion. Cineworld planned to pay US$1.65 billion, and to fund the remainder by taking on debt.
The sale was approved by Cineplex shareholders in February 2020. Activist shareholder Bluebell Capital Partners called for the Canadian government to block the sale, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. which in turn led to the temporary closure(s) of all Cineplex movie theatres across Canada since March 16, 2020, and up until further notice.
Browse from over 8500 HD movies including the latest releases and earn SCENE points every time you rent or buy. Watch online or look for the Cineplex Store.
ESPORTS: WorldGaming Network (WGN), formerly Virgin Gaming (now owned by Cineplex), is an online video gaming platform that hosts head to head matches, tournaments and ladders for consoles and PC gamers. WorldGaming has had over 3 million gamers register for its platform worldwide which makes it one of the most robust and dynamic global eSports communities. There have been over 6.7 million matches played over 20,000 tournaments held on WorldGaming.com since 2010.
Newzoo: Global esports will top $1 billion in 2020, with China as the top market (Feb 25, 2020):
Global esports revenues will surpass $1 billion in 2020 for the first time — without counting broadcasting platform revenues, according to market researcher Newzoo.
Globally, the total esports audience will grow to 495.0 million people in 2020, Newzoo said. Esports Enthusiasts (people who watch more than once a month) make up 222.9 million of this number.
In 2020, $822.4 million in revenues—or three-quarters of the total market—will come from media rights and sponsorship.
“As the esports market matures, new monetization methods will be implemented and improved upon,” said Remer Rietkerk, head of esports at Newzoo, in the report. “Likewise, the number of local events, leagues, and media rights deals will increase; therefore, we anticipate the average revenue per fan to grow to $5.27 by 2023.”
On September 13, 2018, Cineplex announced that it would acquire a stake in VRStudios—a Seattle-based provider of virtual reality installations, and utilize its equipment for as many as 40 VR centers across the country.
Playdium is a family entertainment centre chain owned by Cineplex Entertainment through its subsidiary Player One Amusement Group. The flagship location in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada launched as Sega City @ Playdium near Square One Shopping Centre on September 7, 1996. The 11 acres (480,000 sq ft) centre cost CA$17 million to build and included an arcade, batting cages, go-karts and mini-golf. A partnership with Sega GameWorks, it featured many arcade games from that company such as Daytona USA, and eight-player racing setups for Indy 500 (as Virtua Indy) and Manx TT Super Bike. Indy 500 remains available today. In 1999, the centre was renamed to Playdium. The company opened up two more locations in Brampton and Whitby in late 2019.
The Rec Room
The Rec Room is a Canadian chain of entertainment restaurants owned by Cineplex Entertainment. First opening in Edmonton in 2016, its locations feature entertainment and recreational attractions such as an arcade, driving simulators, recreational games, and virtual reality, as well as restaurants and bars, and an auditorium with a cinema-style screen, which can be used for concerts and other live events.
The Toronto location features The Void virtual reality attraction. In July 2018, Cineplex announced that it would become the exclusive Canadian franchisee of The Void and add additional locations (such as the Mississauga and West Edmonton Mall locations).
SCENE (loyalty program)
SCENE is a Canadian loyalty program established in 2007 by Cineplex Entertainment and Scotiabank.
The main reward is a free movie ticket, starting at 1,250 points for a regular or 3D ticket. Over the years, the program has expanded to include a greater variety of rewards, including restaurants and sporting goods.
FOOD & BEVERAGES
Cineplex has an Outtakes (French: Restoplex) restaurant in 94 theatres, some which replace previous restaurant partners (Burger King, KFC and New York Fries) and others which introduce restaurants at locations which did not previously feature one. VIP Cinemas and some Xscape locations feature a licensed lounge with more premium offerings compared to Outtakes. Poptopia is a flavoured popcorn restaurant offered in a full-service format at 22 locations. Other Cineplex theatres may feature Poptopia at the concession stand, but only in the caramel corn and/or kettle corn flavours.
Ice cream at Cineplex locations debuted with Baskin-Robbins and TCBY. Beginning in December 2007, Yogen Früz became the preferred partner. On January 1, 2014, Cineplex acquired a 50% stake in Yoyo's Yogurt Café. As of January 2017, 77 Cineplex theatres feature Yoyo's restaurants, while Yogen Fruz is still available in 23 Cineplex theatres while TCBY is available in 16 locations. Cineplex also manages Melt Sweet Creations, an in-house dessert bouqtiue brand targeted at women ages 19-35 debuted in December 2017 at Cineplex Cinemas Queensway and VIP. Melt is available at 13 locations.
Beverages are available in both cold and hot formats. Cold beverages include the Coca-Cola lineup, which replaced the Pepsi lineup used at locations formerly owned by Famous Players. 12 locations feature Coca-Cola Freestyle. Hot beverages include Starbucks as the incumbent provider with 105 locations, all which offer Pike Place Roast coffee (regular or decaf) and Tazo tea. Select locations also offer premium drinks such as caffè mocha or caramel macchiato. Tim Hortons is available as a full-service restaurant in five locations, with Brossard being the only location to offer both Tim Hortons and Starbucks.
In most theatres, Cineplex offers sale of alcohol to 19+ guests in Ontario (18+ in Alberta) similar to the VIP theatres albeit from a selection of beer or cider beverages.
If Aurora Cannabis (ACB) & Cineplex (CGX) partnered up to offer CBD & THC infused Cannabis 2.0 edibles in movie theaters, especially the IMAX & 3D ones, it should do very well. Canadian Cannabis Industry stocks should also do well as I posted earlier Cannabis Stocks Opportunity.
Cineworld to buy Canada's largest movie theatre chain in $2.8B deal (Dec 16, 2019):
Cineplex’s stock had been trading close to the Cineworld offer price of C$34 per share through early 2020, but has since plunged 40% following the virus outbreak.
Cineplex could lose a potential lifeline if its outstanding debt exceeds more than $725 million. As of December 31, 2019, the debt level was $625 million. The debt might balloon past the threshold with a further lockdown extension.
Cineplex shares fall after short seller raises concerns about Cineworld deal (March 5, 2020):
Cineworld Dives After Cineplex Activist Urges Rejection of Deal (March 16, 2020):
Cineplex closes locations, provides Cineworld acquisition update (March 17, 2020):
Cineplex Inc. cuts salaries of full-time employees after part-time layoffs (Mar 23, 2020):
P/T employees laid off in Canada & USA. F/T employees take reduced base salaries & senior executive team takes 80% reduction in pay.
Cineworld halts dividend and says will 'monitor progress' of its buyout of Cineplex (April 7, 2020):
Staggered seating, nostalgic films: Cinemark offers a look at movie going post-coronavirus (Apr 15, 2020):
Cinemark, the third-largest movie theater chain in the U.S., hopes to reopen at least some of its doors to the public in July.
With no major movie release until mid-July, theaters could play “library” movies, which are movies that have already previously been released in cinemas, for several weeks.
If social distancing restrictions are still in place the company said it would either sell every other reserved seat in the theater or suspend reservations and just sell 50% of the tickets per theater.
“Even at peak periods of time in a normal environment, our occupancy levels range from 20% to 30% and we can operate profitably during those scenarios...” - CEO Mark Zoradi
He added that Cinemark has seen attendance as low as 10% and still was able to turn a profit.
North Vancouver's Park & Tilford Cineplex permanently closed (May 20, 2020)
The company closed all 165 theatres across Canada in March due to COVID-19, but the 1,382-seat Brookesbank Avenue location won’t be among those reopening, Cineplex has confirmed.
With Cineplex closing its Lower Lonsdale theatre in 2019, it leaves Park Royal as the only place to catch a big screen flick on the North Shore.
“We thank the community for their patronage over the years, and look forward to welcoming them at neighbouring Cineplex Cinemas Park Royal and VIP,” said Sarah Van Lange, executive director of communications. “I’ll note that our intent is to repurpose the Park & Tilford theatre space, which we’ll have more details on at a later date.”
OTHER NEWS & RUMORS:Why Amazon’s Rumored Buyout of AMC Entertainment Makes Sense (May 12, 2020):
If Amazon can buy AMC, they can most certainly by CGX & dominate & control most of North America's movie theaters. Amazon would then control Hollywood! Why stop there, they should buy Cineworld too.
AMC Entertainment Surges 56% on Report of Talks With Amazon (May 11, 2020):
Alert: Cineplex (TSX:CGX) Could Be Acquired by This Incredibly Unlikely Source (May 12, 2020):
Despite Cineworld maintaining its commitment to buy Cineplex, the market has a different opinion. Remember, Cineplex agreed to be acquired at $34 per share. As I type this, the stock trades at $14.44. There’s no way the spread would be that wide, unless investors were writing off the acquisition completely.
Fortunately for beleaguered Cineplex shareholders, a new suitor could very well come along — one virtually nobody sees coming.
Although I think there’s potential for a private equity group or some other deep-pocketed investor taking a run at Cineplex’s cheap assets, there’s a much more interesting suitor on the horizon.
That acquirer is Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN).
AMC says it will no longer play Universal Studios films (Apr 28, 2020):
“AMC believes that with this proposed action to go to the home and theaters simultaneously, Universal is breaking the business model and dealings between our two companies,” AMC Chief Executive Officer Adam Aron said in a letter addressed to Universal Studios Chairman Donna Langley.
Universal added that the company looked forward to having “additional private conversations” with AMC but was “disappointed by this seemingly coordinated attempt ... to confuse our position and our actions.”
Cineworld joins AMC in banning films from Universal Studios (April 29, 2020):
Cineworld, the world’s second largest cinema chain, has followed its rival AMC in banning Universal Studios films from its cinemas when they reopen, after the Hollywood film-maker released Trolls On Tour direct to streaming platforms.
“There is a certain system of windows which are a custom in the market and this sets the time difference between the theatrical market and other ancillary markets, among them streaming. Any movie that will not respect this window will not be shown in Cineworld group,” Mooky Greidinger, Cineworld’s chief executive, said on Wednesday.
Odeon bans all Universal Pictures films as studio skips cinema releases (Apr 29, 2020):
AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.
AMC Theatres (originally an abbreviation for American Multi-Cinema; often referred to simply as AMC and known in some countries as AMC Cinemas or AMC Multi-Cinemas) is an American movie theater chain headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, and is the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Cineworld and Cinemark Theatres.
Cineworld Group PLC
Cineworld is the world’s second largest cinema chain, with 9,518 screens across 790 sites in 11 countries: the UK, the US, Canada, Ireland, Poland, Romania, Israel, Hungary, Czechia, Bulgaria and Slovakia. The group’s primary brands are Regal (in the US), Cineworld and Picturehouse (in the UK & Ireland), Cinema City (throughout Europe) and Yes Planet (in Israel).
And Action! All the Movies We Can't Wait to See in Summer 2020 and Beyond (May 22, 2020):
Fingers crossed that it’ll be safe to step into a theater this summer. If they open, there will be plenty to watch. “Summer hits are the popcorn movies,” says film historian, author and podcast host Leonard Maltin. “They can be the biggest box-office hits of the whole year.”
Rest of 2020:
THE 65 MOST ANTICIPATED MOVIES OF 2020 (May 20, 2020):
Nothing beats watching a great movie on the big screen in premium format:
Younger people are not afraid of Covid19 like the older crowd. When theaters open, they will rush in to see their favourite movies.
Betting that people won't want to go to movie theaters when they re-open, is like betting the same against live sporting events or music concerts.
No home movie theater can match a real movie theater, even the smaller discount ones, unless you're Bill Gates or Jeff Bezos etc.
With Cineplex's Canadian Monopoly & diversification into other entertainment arenas like eSports & Virtual Reality, as long as they don't go bankrupt & social distancing restrictions are loosened, the stock should increase 2 to 3 times by end of 2021 in my opinion -- especially if the Cineworld Buyout goes as planned or another company like Amazon buys them out for a strong presence & control in Canada.
If a Coronavirus Vaccine is discovered sooner than later, then this stock will rebound accordingly & rapidly -- especially if they don't cancel or even if they do, resume Dividend payments in the future. At current prices, Dividend yield is about 13% per year.
Social distance cinema: drive-in theatres boom – in pictures (May 5, 2020):
We are all social creatures & want to go to movie theater as a social activity, to see & be seen; otherwise, why would Drive In Movie theaters boom during Covid19?
If no one goes out to be seen anymore, then all the Vanity Goods & Services will go under too & we will all dress in sweat pants & T-Shirt -- no need for designer suits & dresses working & staying at home. LOL ;p
Internet Bandwidth Requirements:
Online streaming remains the biggest source of 4K content, led by Netflix and Amazon’s growing selection of original series. But many consumer broadband connections aren’t fast enough to allow reliable 4K streaming.
Home Theater Movie Resolutions:
Venmo: icartcsubmitted by frenchbullfrog to RobinHoodPennyStocks [link] [comments]
If my chart(s) helped you make bank, please send a buck or two my way. P.S. if you’re a broke college kid or only investing like $40, I don’t want your money but I appreciate it 😂 keep your money, you need it more than I do!
8 hours of research Saturday, 3 more today. Plus 4-5 hours each on Wed & Thur. I'm beyond done with this lol. There honesty isn’t THAT much different between yesterday and today. I rearranged the order I liked them, added 1 new one, and added some relevant news that came out in the past 24 hours. It’s largely the same though, just tweaked a little.
If you have information I missed, or if you see I got something wrong, or if you strongly disagree with me on any of my entries and can back it up, or can offer additional analysis on something in here, PLEASE post it in this thread.
A reminder: I AM NEW TO STOCKS. I don't know how to analyze, I can't offer any advice outside of what you see on these sheets. This is all I know, and I don't know shit. I appreciate everyone's interest, but the pm's and the chat requests for further advice is getting to be a bit too much (I've gotten a LOT). Everything I know is on this chart. If you want analysis or advice beyond what you read here, I'm not the one to ask. Post your questions on this thread, and hopefully someone more experienced than I am can help you out. I am just doing a metric shit-ton of research for a few reasons: a) I want to be rich, b) I like taking advantage of shitty situations because I'm a bad person, c) I enjoy researching and making spreadsheets because I'm a huge weirdo, and d) I've got some serious real life shit happening and this is a wonderful, much-needed distraction to take my mind off of my very sick dad. Ok, enough of that, onto the information:
The image attached is the quick & dirty version. The PDF is MUCH better.
FULL CHART ON GOOGLE DOCS Tab 1 is the chart, tab 2 are links to notable news stories linked to specific stocks.
PDF version of the FULL chart THIS IS BETTER THAN THE ATTACHED IMAGE. LOOK AT THIS UNLESS YOU DON'T LIKE WORDS.
Noteworthy articles - You REALLY SHOULD READ ALL 3 OF THESE:
Breaking news almost certain to help test kit companies go to the moon
A pretty comprehensive list of drugs being tested for CV treatment, includes drug name, company behind it, status, and details.
WHO list of companies as vaccine candidates (NOT the ones meeting at the White House as I previously wrote. I was misinformed. There IS a meeting Monday at the White House with some pharma companies, but I'm having trouble identifying who they are exactly I did not add every single company to my chart. There are too many. But I did identify which companies already on our radar are on this list, they are highlighted in yellow on the chart.
A couple of quick articles warning against betting it all on CV-related stocks, just to bring us back down to earth a little bit:
A great write-up on warnings on IBIO from u/hchiyan0925 Be sure to read further down in the comments when he makes an update with some positive news. Just read this thread, it won't take long and it's worth it IMO. It's worth 2 minutes of your time if you have a lot invested in IBIO or are thinking about it.
An article calling all of us investing in IBIO "dumb money" and that we're all about to get wrecked
Here's Why Hype Around Companies Working on Coronavirus Treatments Is Overblown
And a quick note regarding RTTR: I think it's (mostly) hype. People are questioning me on it. I don't know, and I'm kind of just done researching so do what you will with this information. It's very likely I'm wrong, and just tired, and not seeing what everyone else is seeing. Plus, it's cheap, so throw some in on it if you want. Read these links and make your own decisions on this one:
Good, in-depth post on RTTR with lots of comments
2/28 article about why RTTR is a good stock to buy
recent post from another user with a new article on RTTR
And I thought someone made a long response to me why RTTR is a good buy, but I can't seem to find it anymore?
Anyway, that's it. If you have anything to add, let me know!
Edit: TLDR this shit is about to escalate. Buy puts.submitted by TheTrueVanWilder to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
Edit 3: I'm just a dude on the internet people, not a fucking swami or professional. I have no clue what you should do with your positions.
I've seen too fucking much speculation lately on just how bad this COVID-19 shit is. Some say its the sniffles. Other say its the start to World War Z. More specifically I've seen this referenced as the next big "Black Swan" event because this sub is a bunch of fucking amateurs (myself included) and they just regurgitate whatever bullshit movie or book they read and used to self-proclaim themselves the next Michael Burry (see what I just did there? I'm speaking your language).
I've read my fair share of shit too assholes. The Big Short, Liars Poker, Flash Boys, Chaos Monkeys, Zero To One, the new /WallStreetBets book (which doesn't come in a fucking hardcover and looks like a fucking disgrace in my library). What I have come to realize is there is no fucking science to stocks. [Yes there is, you claim. Stonks only go up. Science duh].
However there is science to a virus works and how a pandemic spreads. So I've thrown together some half-assed research that you can disregard at your pleasure. This includes charts that we are all so fond of reading. Full disclosure, I am not a biologist, doctor, or any expert in the field of virology. I just did some internet readings and used that data to apply my own logic. Undoubtedly there are errors in what lies ahead. Let's begin.
COVID-19 Coronavirus is caused by SARS-CoV-2, a incestuous relative of our old friend SARS (we'll get to him shorty). Depending on what you believe this has been caused by some starving Chinese peasants seasoning their soup with bats or the result of a Chinese bioweapon escaping its lab. Long story short its the flu that really fucks you up.
This isn't the first virus we've seen rapidly rise to fame. We've got a few historical examples we can look to for comparison.
1) 1918 H1N1 aka Spanish Flu
The big bad granddaddy of them all, this is the shit doomsdayers point to when they want to really incite some fear. Firs appearing in January of 1918, this fucker infected almost 500 million and killed anywhere between 40 million to 100 million. ~28% of the United States was infected with a 2%-3% case-fatality ratio.
2) 1956-1958 H2N2 Influenza A aka Asian Flu
A bad nickname since most of these could be called Asian Flu. This gets the crown since it was first. Originating in our dear friend China, this spread to Singapore by February of 1957, Hong Kong by April, and the US by June. 69800 deaths in the US with 1-4 million worldwide (WHO estimates 2 million).
3) 1968-1969 H3N2 Influenza A aka Hong Kong Flu
Arriving on the scene July 13th, 1968, this hit Vietnam and Singapore by the end of July and was widespread in the US by December of 1968. Case-fatality ratio of 0.5%, it killed 33800 people in the US alone.
4) 2002-2003 SARS
Probably the last real panic over an Asian virus, this was declared in November 27th of 2002. There apparently still is no cure. That said, only 8098 cases with 774 deaths occurred (however that is a fatality rate of 9.6%). There were only 27 US cases.
5) 2009 H1N1/09 variation aka Swine Flu
What looked to be the sequel to SARS but really was just a lame prequel, this had a case-fatality of 0.01%-0.08%. WHO statistics as of July 2010 attributed 18000 deaths to the virus, but later revisions estimate somewhere around 284,500 deaths.
All of these have led to COVID-19 and speculation is rampant as to it's impact on the globe. More specifically for the retards here, it's impact on their portfolios.
Unfortunately we don't have a ton of good data on how any of these affected markets. For starters, the stock market today is quite different from 20 years ago, and the global economy is much more entangled. News travels faster, and we have a way of sensationalizing everything. We can look at the markets during each of the aforementioned virus' (minus the 1918 Spanish Flu. If this happens there won't be a stock market).
The most recent two virus', H1N1/09 and SARS, both have unusable market data. Why? Because when both virus' struck, we had just popped two of the largest bubbles in history. H1N1/09 struck in March of 2009, right in the midst of the Great Recession. The market had already bottomed, the Feds were writing blank checks, and the economy was already in triage. SARS came to fruition in November of 2002, one month after the NASDAQ hit bottom from the DotCom bubble. What impact these virus' had on the world market is tainted by the preexisting financial landslides.
In January of 1957 the S&P 500 was valued around ~418 (inflation adjusted). When the virus hit the US in June, the S&P 500 was actual up to ~434.86. By December of 1957 the index value was 363.23 points.
I feel however, that the 1968 Hong Kong Flu is our best comparison to COVID-19 and any impact the virus could have on the overall market. Just look at these numbers.
S&P 500 (inflation adjusted)
July 1968 722.49 (virus reaches Singapore and Vietnam)
December 1968 754.75 (widespread in the United States)
February 1969 707.12
August 1969 665.90
June 1970 483.52
H3N2 struck a year before the Recession of 1969-1970, a recession that ended the third longest period of economic expansion in US History. According to Wikipedia:
"At the end of the expansion inflation was rising, possibly a result of increased deficit spending during a period of full employment. This relatively mild recession coincided with an attempt to start closing the budget deficits of the Vietnam War (fiscal tightening) and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates (monetary tightening). During this relatively mild recession, the Gross Domestic Product of the United States fell 0.6 percent. Though the recession ended in November 1970, the unemployment rate did not peak until the next month. In December 1970, the rate reached its height for the cycle of 6.1 percent."
However I would once again argue this is a poor example, as the market didn't seem to rock much during the actual outbreak, and some of the surrounding factors of the recession were different than those of today.
So what does this mean? In my opinion we are facing a somewhat unknown scenario. Markets don't like unknowns. And there is a lot of fear being tossed around regarding this virus. Markets don't like fear either. So is this unknown fear worth panicking about?
Let's look a pair of charts. Some really unhappy charts.
This first one graphs all the cases of COVID-19 since its inception on December 31st, 2019, the day China contacted WHO and let them know shit was about to get fucked.
For the first month of that chart, you don't really see much. Then you see one really big fucking line go parabolic in a hurry, and more recently a bunch of little tiny lines that don't seem to be doing anything. That first line is the number of total COVID-19 cases, dominated by primarily China (>95%). China has had a runaway explosion of cases that *tentatively* seems to be slowing down. Already the panic from this has caused our recent markets to approach/enter correction territory in the matter of a week.
Now lets go zoom in on those tiny lines:
Holy shit, they are fucking going parabolic too. After a rough incubation period of about a month, we start seeing an explosion of cases in infected countries. South Korea has especially been taking it through the teeth. These are fucking exponential jumps. If these were stocks, they'd be memed to death already. If you were investing in virus outbreaks in countries, you can bet your fucking ass most of this sub would be buying calls on every fucking one of these nations with new cases.
So lets see, we have an economy that is nonsensical, in a trade war with a nation who is ground zero for a sweeping health crisis. We have recession indicators blowing up everywhere, fucking Twitch streamers jumping into stocks, markets getting spooked to death over this virus, global supply chains being interrupted, the Feds pumping the markets desperately, and now this virus has decided to start going apeshit?
WHO declared this an international health emergency on January 22nd. WHO has YET to declare this a pandemic. We overtook the SARS death toll on February 9th, three weeks ago. People went nuts about SARS. According to Wikipedia in regards to Swine Flu, "Critics claimed the WHO had exaggerated the danger, spreading "fear and confusion" rather than "immediate information". The WHO began an investigation to determine whether it had "frightened people unnecessarily"'. So if WHO took flak for overselling Swine Flu in 2009, I would wager they are underselling COVID-19 now.
Did you watch that speech last night people? What about any of this is inspiring confidence? I don't want to imagine what the presser would be if the number of US cases went parabolic. Hell it might already have done so. This wouldn't be the first time the current administration has fudged numbers.
In just the last week:
Denmark, Estonia, Greece, North Macedonia, Georgia, Norway, Pakistan, Romania, Croatia, Austria, Brazil, Switzerland, Algeria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Israel all reported their FIRST cases.
Iran and Italy have gone parabolic. South Korea looks like its gonna hit China numbers from a month ago soon.
We have outpaced almost every historical example of a major pandemic BESIDES the 1918 Spanish Flu. Also this virus is matching the %2-%3 case-fatality ratio.
I'm buying puts out the ass across the next two months. Could this thing fizzle out and blow over in two months? Yes of course. Could this entire post be full of shit and age incredibly poorly by next week? Absolutely. But this sub isn't about investing its about white collar gambling. You have to take the odds when they are in your favor. An overextended market gets hit by an unprecedented external force? The odds have titled. It's time to lay down some fat fucking bets while it exists. Or keep throwing money stupidly at meme stocks and hoping SPCE moves 2 fucking points.
Edit 2: In the mere hours since I posted this gibberish, Kuwait, Switzerland, Iran, the UK, South Korea, Iraq, Finland, and Lebanon have reported more cases and deaths. Australia says pandemic inevitable, the US has its first case of unknown origin who wasn't tested for days, and Saudis Arabia just cancelled the fucking pilgrimage to Mecca and Medina. After a few hours sleep I feel even more confident in this assessment.
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