Multi Strategist EA Review (Julian Jäger) - Forex Robot Nation
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With many nations adopting coinage (instead of weight of gold or silver) for trade and with many prominent trade routes crossing through different nations, how did currency exchange happen? Were there medieval versions of forex along the silk/ amber roads/ via maris?
Malaysia, a nation who became a trader in the forex market
I just wanted to share what I've read. It made me realize that anything can happen in the forex market. It was today that I learned that my country's central bank called Bank Negara was involved in forex trading back in 1992. It was all done by the bank Governor and also Finance Minister at that time. Basically the central bank and the government were in cahoots to make a profit trading in the forex market. I've read that they used Bank Negara employee computers as well as their own to execute their HUGE position. In the range of billions of dollars. In the year 1992, they went into the market buying sterling pounds in hopes that they go up. During that time, the Bank of England (BOE) was in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) and was basically playing the cat and mouse game and trying to one up the Deutsche Mark. This resulted in low interest rate and very high inflation in the UK. Enter George Soros, a hedge fun manager at that time who saw that the pound was severely overvalued and decided to short it. His position was fairly large, in the range of tens of millions of dollars. Bank Negara was basically on the other end of that trade, in their mind there's no way some small hedge fund could bring down a CENTRAL BANK. So they kept their long position on the pound until Wednesday September 16th 1992 came when BOE had to pull the pound out of the ERM because of the financial pressure that had built up from within. This made the pound plummet and cemented two things in history. That day is known today as Black Wednesday and George Soros was crowned "The man who broke the Bank of England" by making a profit of US$1 billion in a single day. As for Bank Negara? Investigations were conducted within my country and the estimated loss of that trade was around US$10 billion. In other words, a lot of our nation's money went into Soros' pocket. Bank Negara was also reported to be insolvent after that loss and had to be bailed out by our Ministry of Finance. They did that by selling shares of MAS (national airline company), Telekom (national telecommunications company) and Tenaga (national utilities company). MAS had been struggling in the airline industry ever since. Both the bank Governor and the Finance Minister were relieved of their duties. The losses had since been recovered but the whole incident effectively pushed the advancement and development of the country by a few years. Bank Negara had stopped their trading for profits activities ever since and sticking to only regulating the money supply, as it was intended in the first place. That's a piece of my country's history and how it was tied to the forex trading world and the rest of the world events. Thank you and hope you had a pleasure reading.
I currently live in Europe. I'm really fucking tired of this place and have been fascinated by Rhodesia since I was a kid. Such a strong nation and integrity. Would it be possible for me to move there? How is life in Rhodesia these days? Do Rhodesia's accept foreigners? I'm studying to become a marine engineer. Could I give any value to Rhodesia with my education? Edit: No, I'm not trolling. Firstly, I do understand that Rhodesia as a nation isn't recognized and is called Zimbabwe today. Second, I also get that it's a landlocked country. With a degree in marine engineering I can work in any mechanic shop, even power plants which doesn't require for me to be near a body of water. Also, thanks for all the insight and advice. I will be going through them thoroughly. Edit 2: I also understand that life isn't perfect in Africa. I don't care about having a lower quality of lifestyle as long as I can live a calm and happy life.
Someone posted on here a few days ago asking about forex and forex trading in Kenya, I have gone through the responses and clearly, most people don’t have an idea. It is 3am in the morning and am in a good mood so let me make this post. This will be a comprehensive and lengthy post so grab a pen and paper and sit down. We’ll be here a while. FIRST OF ALL, who am I..? I am a forex trader, in Nairobi, Kenya..i have been actively involved in forex since I found out about it in Feb 2016 when I somehow ended up in a wealth creation seminar (lol) in pride inn Westlands, the one close to Mpaka Rd. Luckily for me, it was not one of those AIM global meetings or I’d be on Facebook selling God knows what those guys sell. I did not take it seriously till August of the same year and I have been active ever since. I don’t teach, mentor or sell a course or signals, I trade my own money. I am also posting from a throwaway account because I don’t want KRA on my ass. What the fuck is forex and forex trading. In simple plain English, forex is like the stock market but for currencies. Stock Market = Shares, forex = currencies. If you want more in-depth explanation, google is your friend. These currencies are pegged on specific countries, united states- dollar, UK- pound, euro zone- euro, Switzerland- Swiss franc, Kenya- Kenya shilling.. you get the point. Now, there are specific events and happenings between these economies that affect the movement and values of the currencies, driving their value (purchasing power up and down). Forex trading exploits these movements to make money. When the value is going up, we buy and vice versa (down –sell) Is forex trading illegal in Kenya? Is it a scam? Illegal, no. scam, no. All the banks in the world do it (KCB made about 4 billion from trading forex in 2019) Have there been scams involving forex in Kenya? Yes. Here is one that happened recently. This one is the most infamous one yet. Best believe that this is not the end of these type of scams because the stupidity, greed and gullibility of human beings is unfathomable. However, by the end of this post, I hope you won’t fall for such silliness. What next how do I make it work..? Am glad you asked. Generally, there are two ways to go about it. One, you teach yourself. This is the equivalent of stealing our dad’s car and hoping that the pedal you hit is the brake and not the accelerator. It is the route I took, it is the most rewarding and a huge ego boost when you finally make it on your own. Typically, this involves scouring the internet for hours upon hours going down rabbit holes, thinking you have made it telling all your friends how you will be a millionaire then losing all your money. Some people do not have the stomach for that. The second route is more practical, structured and smarter. First Learn the basics. There is a free online forex course at www.babypips.com/learn/forex this is merely an introductory course. Basically it is learning the parts of a car before they let you inside the car. Second, start building your strategy. By the time you are done with the babypips, you will have a feel of what the forex market is, what interests you, etc. Tip..Babypips has a lot of garbage. It is good for introductory purposes but not good for much else, pick whatever stick to you or jumps at you the first time. Nonsense like indicators should be ignored. The next step is now the most important. Developing the skill and building your strategy. As a beginner, you want to exhaust your naivety before jumping into the more advanced stuff. Eg can you identify a trend, what is a pair, what is position sizing, what is metatrader 4 and how to operate it, what news is good for a currency, when can I trade, what are the different trading sessions, what is technical analysis, what is market sentiment, what are bullish conditions what is emotion management, how does my psychology affect my trading (more on this later) an I a swing, scalper or day trader etc Mentors and forex courses.. you have probably seen people advertising how they can teach and mentor you on how to trade forex and charging so much money for it. Somehow it seems that these people are focused on the teaching than the trading. Weird, right..? Truth is trading is hard, teaching not quite. A common saying in the industry is “Those who can’t trade, teach” you want to avoid all these gurus on Facebook and Instagram, some are legit but most are not. Sifting the wheat from the chaff is hard but I did that for you. The info is available online on YouTube, telegram channels etc. am not saying not to spend money on a course, if you find a mentor whose style resonates with you and the course is reasonably priced, please, go ahead and buy..it will cut your learning curve in half. People are different. What worked for me might not work for you. Here are some nice YouTube channels to watch. These guys are legit..
After a short period of time, you will be able to sniff out bs teachers with relative ease. You will also discover some of your own and expand the list. Two tips, start with the oldest videos first and whichever of these resonates with you, stick with till the wheels fall off. How long will it take until things start making sense Give yourself time to grow and learn. This is all new to you and you are allowed to make mistakes, to fail and discover yourself. Realistically, depending on the effort you put in, you will not start seeing results until after 6 months. Could take longeshorter so there is no guarantee. Social media, Mentality, Psychology and Books Online, forex trading might not have the best reputation online because it takes hard work and scammers and gurus give it a bad name. However, try to not get sucked into the Instagram trader lifestyle as it is nowhere close to what the reality is. You will not make millions tomorrow or the day after, you might never even make it in this market. But that is the reality of life. Nothing is promised, nothing is guaranteed. Your mentality, beliefs and ego will be challenged in this market. You will learn things that will make you blood boil, you will ask yourself daily, how is this possible, why don’t they teach this in school..bla bla bla..it will be hard but growth is painful, if it wasn’t we’d all be billionaires. Take a break, take a walk, drink a glass of whatever you like or roll one..detox. Chill with your girl (or man) Gradually you will develop mental toughness that will set you up for life. Personally, I sorta ditched religion and picked up stoicism. Whatever works for you. Psychology, this is unfortunately one of the most neglected aspects of your personal development in this journey. Do you believe in yourself? Can you stand by your convictions when everyone is against you? Can you get up every day uncertain of the future? There will be moments where you will question yourself, am I even doing the right thing? the right way? It is normal and essential for your growth. People who played competitive sports have a natural advantage here. Remember the game is first won in your head then on the pitch. Books: ironically, books that helped me the most were the mindset books, Think and grow rich, trading for a living, 4 hour work week, the monk who sold his Ferrari..just google mindset and psychology books, most trading books are garbage. Watch and listen to people who have made it in the investing business. Ray Dalio, warren, Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn. This is turning out to be lengthier than I anticipated so I’ll try to be brief for the remaining parts. Brokers You will need to open up an account with a broker. Get a broker who is regulated. Australian ones (IC Market and Pepperstone) are both legit, reliable and regulated. Do your research. I’d avoid local ones because I’ve heard stories of wide spreads and liquidity problems. International brokers have never failed me. There are plenty brokers, there is no one size fits all recommendation. If it ain’t broke..don’t fix it. Money transfer. All brokers accept wire transfers, you might need to call your bank to authorize that, avoid Equity bank. Stanchart and Stanbic are alright. Large withdrawals $10k+ you will have to call them prior. Get Skrill and Neteller if you don’t like banks like me, set up a Bitcoin wallet for faster withdrawals, (Payoneer and Paypal are accepted by some brokers, just check with them.) How much money can I make..? I hate this question because people have perceived ceilings of income in their minds, eg 1 million ksh is too much to make per month or 10,000ksh is too little. Instead, work backwards. What % return did I make this month/ on this trade. Safaricom made 19.5% last year, if you make 20% you have outperformed them. If you reach of consistency where you can make x% per month on whatever money you have, then there are no limits to how much you can make. How much money do I need to start with..? Zero. You have all the resources above, go forth. There are brokers who provide free bonuses and withdraw-able profits. However, to make a fulltime income you will need some serious cash. Generally, 50,000 kes. You can start lower or higher but if you need say 20k to live comfortably and that is a 10% return per month, then you can do the math on how big your account should be. Of course things like compound interest come into play but that is dependent on your skill level. I have seen people do spectacular things with very little funds. Taxes..? Talk to a lawyer or an accountant. I am neither. Family? Friends? Unfortunately, people will not understand why you spend hundreds of hours watching strangers on the internet so it is best to keep it from them. Eventually you will make it work and they will come to your corner talking about how they always knew you’d make it. The journey will be lonely, make some trading buddies along the way. You’d be surprised at how easy it is when people are united by their circumstances (and stupidity) I have guys who are my bros from South Africa and Lebanon who I have never met but we came up together and are now homies. Join forums, ask questions and grow. That is the only way to learn. Ideally, a group of 5-10 friends committed to learning and growth is the best model. Pushing each other to grow and discovering together. Forex is real and you can do amazing things with it. It is not a get rich quick scheme. If you want a quick guaranteed income, get a job. And now it is 5am, fuck. This is oversimplified and leaves out many many aspects. Happy to answer any questions.
US national looking to forex to offset exchange AUD/USD rate risk while abroad - missing anything?
I've been offered a job in Australia that is quite compelling to me. But as I'm sure most of you here know, the AUD has been trending downward and faces further potentially sharp declines in the next couple years due to:
Weakening economy and plummeting housing prices potentially forcing a RBA rate cut
Weaker Chinese demand for commodities reducing exports
Potential raise in USD rate by the Fed (seems unlikely at this point but you never know)
General recession sending money into stable currencies like USD (happened during 2008)
I've seen estimates that pose as much as a 25-30% drop from .72 to .5. in the next 1 to 2 years. I'm paid in AUD and don't plan to stay in Australia for a long period of time so this would be a huge drop to my salary. I used to mess around with forex and TA back in the day, not successfully, of course, but then again, I was day trading and it did give me familiarity with the trading platforms. I was thinking of setting a hedge position via forex to offset some of the currency risk. I have probably 2k I can set aside, and my hypothesis is that the AUD/USD rate will not rise more than 6% from .72 to .76 (probably much lower than that, but still) , so I should set my leverage to be stopped out at that point, and this would give me 8-10k (minus 33% as tax rate) protection should the worst happen and there's a 25% to 30% drop. I realize that if the currency spiked up (as it spiked down recently) it could wipe out my position and then still go down anyway. Also if were to make 100k for example, then a 5% upward move is just about $400 a month in salary gained, so even if it went up for a while and came back down two months later, I would have lost my 2k position while just increasing my salary by $800. Is this foolish or very high risk? Am I setting myself up failure? Is there some smarter way I could be approaching this?
US national looking to forex to offset exchange AUD/USD rate risk - missing anything?
I've been offered a job in Australia that is quite compelling to me. But as I'm sure most of you here know, the AUD has been trending downward and faces further potentially sharp declines in the next couple years due to:
Weakening economy and plummeting housing prices potentially forcing a RBA rate cut
Weaker Chinese demand for commodities reducing exports
Potential raise in USD rate by the Fed (seems unlikely at this point but you never know)
General recession sending money into stable currencies like USD (happened during 2008)
I've seen estimates that pose as much as a 25-30% drop from .72 to .5. in the next 1 to 2 years. I'm paid in AUD and don't plan to stay in Australia for a long period of time so this would be a huge drop to my salary - or perceived salary anyway. I used to mess around with forex and TA back in the day, not successfully, of course, but then again, I was day trading and it did give me familiarity with the trading platforms. I was thinking of setting a hedge position via forex to offset some of the currency risk. I have probably 2k I can set aside, and my hypothesis is that the AUD/USD rate will not rise more than 6% from .72 to .76 (probably much lower than that, but still) , so I should set my leverage to be stopped out at that point, and this would give me 8-10k (minus 33% as tax rate) protection should the worst happen and there's a 25% to 30% drop. I realize that if the currency spiked up (as it spiked down recently) it could wipe out my position and then still go down anyway. Also if were to make 100k AUD, for example, then a 5% upward move is just about 400 USD a month in salary gained, so even if it stayed at that rate for two months and then went back into decline. I would have lost my 2k USD position while just increasing my salary by 800 USD. Is this foolish or very high risk? Am I setting myself up failure? Is there some smarter way I could be approaching this? I've worked overseas before but never had to look at currency risk cause I got paid in USD.
Are China and India engaged in a cold economic and information war?
Note: This is resubmitted after making edits to better fit the quality requirements of this sub. While most media attention on China focuses on China’s relationship with the US, one player that rarely gets mentioned--at least in mainstream Western media--is India. In an October 2019 analysis by Deborah Brautigam that explored the origin of the term "debt trap diplomacy" for Chinese investments, she revealed the following:
On 23 January 2017, a Chinese debt-trap diplomacy meme was born in a think tank in northern India and was furthered by a paperwritten by two Harvard University graduate students who called it Chinese ‘debt book diplo-macy’.
A recent thread on china revealed some surprising data (non-academic, I know, but it's a good barometer for general sentiment on China as many of the more critical stories regarding China has first emerged on that sub, and then slowly propagated out towards more mainstream subs/media). Namely--by analyzing 449 tweets with the hashtag of #TweetforTaiwan, it found that 49% of the tweets originated from India. Most recently, Times of India has also advocated for Taiwan's participation in the WHO by interviewing the foreign minister of Taiwan--which has since drawn an official statement from the Chinese embassy in India. But most importantly, India has recently announced that it is setting aside nearly half a million hectares of land to entice foreign firms into leaving China. PM Modi has also emphasized that he had little desire for India to play second fiddle to China. While some can argue that this is due to him pandering to the Hindu nationalist base that makes up his supporters, it's not a statement to be taken lightly because the BJP--by taking a supermajority in the Indian Congress--is in a position to enact its policies at will without regard for the opposition.
The Trade Reality of India vis-a-vis the United States
The United States has actively sought bilateral and multilateral opportunities to increase access to India’s market, and the government of India has pursued ongoing economic reform efforts. Nevertheless, U.S. exporters continue to encounter significant tariff and nontariff barriers that impede imports of U.S. products into India.
Other points raised in the document:
India maintains very high tariffs on a number of goods--some as high as 150%.
India has increased tariffs in 2018 key U.S. exports in the agricultural, information and communications technology, and automobile parts sectors, with no warning or public consultation process.
India maintains several export subsidy programs to boost production in domestic sectors
India remains on the Priority Watch List due to weak protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights
The Indian government maintains strong ownership presence in major services industries such as banking and insurance.
Foreign investment in businesses in certain major services sectors, including financial services and retail, is subject to limitations on foreign equity.
The document goes on to list additional trade barriers that India has put up against the United States, and they are far too many to list here. But taken as a whole, the overall summary seems to be this: India--from a trade policy perspective--is not that much different or even that advantageous compared to China. Yet in the face of greater US-China economic rivalry, India has emerged as a seemingly viable alternative to China despite data suggesting the contrary. This is due to the major advantage India has over China, which I will discuss in the next section.
The Advantages India Holds Over China
ADVANTAGE 1: ONLINE PRESENCE The biggest advantage that India holds over China in an economic cold war has little to do with any underlying economic strength, nor does it have anything to do with how easy it is for foreign companies to enter India. Instead, the biggest advantage India has over China is its online presence in the Western internet. With 560 million internet users, India is the second largest online market after China. But unlike China, India’s internet is not locked behind a government imposed barrier. The lack of such a barrier has given rise to a sophisticated disinformation/propaganda arm for Indian political parties—most notably the BJP—on Western internet channels such as Twitter and Facebook. The Centre for International Governance Innovation think tank has done the following analysis of how the BJP’s propaganda arm makes use of Western social media to set the narrative: - The grassroots workers share hyperlocal information about development activities — for instance, a beneficiary getting access to services offered under a government scheme — and work done by their party with voters in their area. They click images and videos as proof and circulate to demonstrate that the party cares about local issues. - The party foot soldiers broadcast their mobilization efforts to their superiors in the party, earning praise and encouragement from the leadership. - The networked system allows the party command to centrally share information through the chain of WhatsApp groups being operated — bypassing the editorial filter of news media. - On Twitter, an army of online warriors takes part in the narrative-setting game. Even though Twitter usage is largely restricted to the country’s elites, journalists and influencers hang out on the micro-blogging platform, meaning the sentiment smoothly seeps into the wider information ecosystem. Basically, India has coopted the Western internet and used it to their advantage, while China has taken the approach of shutting out the Western internet altogether in favor of cultivating its own walled garden. This means that China's closed off internet ecosystem is incapable of effectively competing with India's online presence. Moreover, Chinese netizens who do manage to overcome the barriers can find themselves facing state suppression and persecution. This limits Chinese disinformation methods to either state media, or state-sanctioned individuals who often must be vetted for political loyalty before they are set loose. This level of political control and loyalty that China demands has severely limited its ability to project its message outside of the Chinese internet. The ability for India's different political parties to set the narrative gives India a crucial advantage when it comes to either spreading pro-Indian messages or smearing potential adversaries. ADVANTAGE 2: MAINTAINING A SUPPORTIVE DIASPORA Indian Americans maintain a high degree of connection to their motherland (for lack of a better term), and this data is supported by India being the top remittance-receiving country in 2018. While Chinese immigrants maintain a similar level of connection to their motherland (China ranks second after India in the top remittance-receiving countries in 2018 from the same Times of India report), a prevailing attitude of Chinese diaspora has been one of pride for their homeland but suspicion for the government:
Many overseas Chinese have shown pride in the considerable economic achievements China has made over the past four decades, allowing it to become the world’s second largest economy. On the other hand, they also harbour deep-rooted suspicion and disapproval of the party’s authoritarian approach and its intolerance towards dissent or media freedom. Hence, when talking politics, those overseas Chinese like to highlight that their love of country is in no way related to a love of the Communist Party.
As the CCP increasingly demand that supporting China be intertwined with supporting the CCP—a message that the party can control and foster only within its walled garden—it is more likely to drive overseas Chinese further away from supporting the party’s policies. In 2019, the "Howdy Modi" convention in Houston, Texas drew a crowd of 50,000. It's difficult to imagine a similar number of supporters if a CCP politician were to announce a similar trip. The popularity Indian politicians like Modi can expect in the West, coupled with an effective propaganda wing from within India that has a massive presence on social media to set the narrative gives India a tremendous advantage in maintaining a high degree of loyalty in its diaspora population. This diaspora can later prove to be a useful tool in advancing Indian foreign policy by amplifying the messages from within India. Disclaimer: this by no means implies that Hindu Indian Americans are acting as a fifth column to advance India's goals, but merely suggests that Hindu Indian Americans are likely to share and disseminate Indian propaganda--with or without realizing that they are doing so.
Can China Counter this?
In the current information war, China is losing. Badly. By building a caged garden, China's information warriors are largely clueless as to how to effectively spread their propaganda. Two examples come to mind. The first example was during the recent Hong Kong protests. China's attempt at controlling the narrative fell apart almost as quickly as it began, as many of its messages included support for party control, casting the protesters as Hong Kong independence provocateurs, or suggesting CIA influence rather than focusing on specific instances of targeted violence and xenophobic attacks on Mandarin speaking individuals (including attacks on Taiwanese media). Another example is how China has been incapable of finding a way to reduce the influence of Falun Gong media such as the Epoch Times and New Tang Dynasty TV in the West. These channels can operate unimpeded from Chinese state repression on the Western internet, and when China does try and respond to them, the results often come across as clumsy and ham-fisted because attempts at control tend to follow Chinese internet control strategies. However, from experience, China can ill afford to relax its internet controls: both the 2008 Tibetan protests and the 2009 Urumqi attacks were organized through Facebook. Relaxing internet controls would also see the internet, both within and without China, be flooded with Chinese nationalists--a faction that Beijing has simultaneously encouraged and suppressed depending on the needs of the state. If China were to go on the information war offensive against India to retain its economic advantage, it must take a two-pronged approach:
On the world stage, it would highlight the unfair trade practices of India to portray India in the same light as China in terms of negative trade practices.
Within India, it would find local partners to sow the idea that India will be treated the same way as China by the West once it has developed enough.
On highlighting the unfair trade practices of India: The advantage that China holds in this regard is that the world has already formed a negative opinion on Chinese trade practices, therefore creating a situation in which China only has something to lose if other countries can offer a more attractive alternative. By depriving the world of seeing India as a viable alternative, China can join in international pressure to force the Indian economy to open up further without giving India the opportunity to develop an industrial base capable of protecting its fledgling industries. In such a scenario, China would be able to leverage its massive industrial capability into India and gobble up local Indian partners, or otherwise choose to support companies that would adopt pro-China practices. In essence, by attacking India before it can build an effective industrial base, China can enact a a softer version of the colonialist methods that the British used to subjugate India in the 19th century. This may possibly explain why the term "debt trap diplomacy" first emerged from an Indian think tank. On Using Local Indian Partners to Sow Ideas: By partnering with local voices in India and sowing the idea that once India becomes developed enough, it would also face the same trade scrutiny that China has faced, China can attempt to pivot India away from developing friendlier ties to the West and return it towards its Non-Aligned status it adopted during the Cold War. However, these efforts can largely be stymied by government policy--and in fact, the Modi government has required that Chinese investment into India be approved first. There is still a lot of room for the rivalry and/or partnership between China and India to continue developing in this coming decade. But it's clear that at the current moment, India seems to have a distinctive advantage.
In 1947, India had just Rs 1500 crore cash. Today, we are about to cross $500 billion in foreign reserves. We have come a long way
In 1947, when India got independence, we had just Rs 1500 crore in cash with us, and even paying Rs 55 crore to Pakistan was a big deal. Mahatma Gandhi had to keep a day's fast to convince Vallabhbhai Patel to transfer Rs 55 crore to Pakistan. Then we started storing foreign reserves to the calamity and emergency. In 1960, India had foreign reserves of $1.46 billion, which could have lasted just 8 weeks of import. In 1980, India had foreign reserves of $7 billion In 1991, India's foreign reserves dipped to an alarming level of just $1.2 billion, which could have lasted just 3 weeks of imports. RBI had to pledge 46.91 tonnes of gold with the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, and raised $400 million to deal with the unprecedented crisis In 2004, for the first time, we achieved foreign reserves of $100 billion Due to solid performance of our foreign reserves, we somehow navigated the recession of 2009, and our foreign reserves stood at $270 billion And now, for the first time in our history, India will have $500 billion of foreign reserves. As of now, we have $493 billion, which is enough to sustain 17 months of imports. We are right now world's 3rd biggest nation with foreign reserves, after China and Japan. India has indeed come a long way from having just Rs 1500 crore in cash to pledging Gold to sustain the economy, to crossing half a trillion-dollar of foreign reserves. Sources: 12345
Now's a good time for to get a lesson in the greeks you fucking retards. This document outlines the relative risks and rewards of certain trading strategies and how to manage risks along with some basic math and econ. This should be basic for most of you. Why do stocks go up? Because capital growth has a diminishing returns to scale. In the long run capital is used to create more capital generating growth until it balances with capital depreciation which is linear. You can increase the equilibrium capital accumulation by increasing savings rates essentially trading off short run consumption for long run consumption. The implications of this are that less capital intensive economies grow at faster rates than developed because developed economies are very close to hitting the equilibrium point and have to rely on technological advancements for long run growth. Not every economy is equal though, all have differences in economic institutions, government effectiveness and political norms which will also affect their long run effectiveness. Long story short if the government engages in ineffective policies like protectionism, price manipulation, overly burdensome regulations, underregulation, or inefficient redistribution programs the short run micro/macro picture will be hurt and reflected in the long run picture. The US has had a thriving stock market despite having relatively low growth because it has taken the first mover advantage in many industries. Global Tech, higher education, finance, and pharma are all centered in the US because the US policies have made doing business in the US the optimal choice for these industries. For as long as the US is a capitalist nation you can be sure that the stock market will go up in the long run. This is not necessarily the case for commodities or forex as higher growth has typically led to investments in productive efficiency outweighing increased demand in raw materials and exchange rates do not have a long run trend. Fundamentally, the stock market is a good place to invest savings into in the long run. Stocks and exponential returns. Stocks go up so you want to capture the value of price increases. Stocks have a delta of one and a gamma of zero resulting in a linear return to movement of the stock price. Long run capital accumulation, although diminishing, is still exponential and in the long run will return an exponentially increasing return to investment on stock. Linear gains * exponential increase in underlying = exponential gains. But what if things go down? In the short run stocks decrease in value at exponential rates which is absolutely fantastic for investors because exponential declines are diminishing in scale. 10% of 100 is 10, 10% of 90 is 9, 10% of 81 is less and so on and so forth. You may get linear returns from movement but you receive increasing returns to scale gains on the upside and decreasing returns to scale losses on the downside. Delta and Gamma Long options have even better fundamentals than stocks because they amplify the exponentiality through gamma. As an option moves into the money its delta increases creating exponential gains in value. As an option moves out of the money delta decreases, lowering losses. Thus options while having more risk per dollar than stocks have far superior risk returns in the short run. Theta and Vega The opposite is true of selling a call and you're put into the position of wanting to sell when times are most dire and hold when times are good. In exchange you get benefit from theta decay but if you can reasonably predict the movement of the market that's pretty much nothing compared to the gains from delta you could get investing the same amount of money into long calls. Selling also requires way more money further reducing its risk to return. But what about vega? When markets crash, volatility skyrockets. Long calls gain and the opposite is true once again for selling them. Mathematically, buying longs has the best return on risk of any option strategy but higher absolute losses when delta doesn't move in your favor. Selling longs or spreads has a way worse return to risk but you'll lose less money when delta moves against you and it's harder for any one position to lose all of its value. Theta gang isn't more profitable than bullgang, it's less risky per dollar spent. The reason market makers don't play like WSB retards is because they play on margin and the 20-30% losses we typically take and make back buying longs would cause their investors to flee bankrupting them. Strategy implications Longs
If you can reasonably predict positive price movement these should be your go to position to capture delta and gamma. Otm has better delta to price but comes at the cost of worse theta to price. I recommend getting slightly OTM options to balance collecting gamma with exposure to theta risk.
Optimal position size: The total size of spy correlated longs should not exceed 25-50% of your account balance. Only double down on a losing position if your longs get blown up. Your risk return from delta gets better the more blown up your contracts get and exponential gains can bring you back to green.
When to sell? Sell when you think there's a chance risk from theta or vega might outweigh delta gains. Also sell when the underlying moves against you but that should be obvious. Delta goes up the more you go into the money so its better to hold winners than profit take early when possible.
Profit taking: If you don't want bail from a position completely when you profit take consider selling a call to lock in most of your profits while retaining some delta risk with a debt spread.
You will take losses buying tons of longs but if you do it right your winners will outweigh your losers easily.
Selling naked longs
If you're doing wheel, go for it. Selling naked longs shouldn't be done otherwise unless you want to park your cash somewhere and bond yields are too long for your liking or you anticipate a IV decrease. The tradeoff is receiving gains from theta, smaller delta per dollar spent(lower risk) and less options leverage.
For all intents and purposes OTM credit spreads are like selling naked with more leverage.
Edit: The prior statement was kinda wrong. Selling a wide credit spread is like selling a long. There's still a tradeoff with reduced gains from theta and reduced delta.
When deciding between debt or credit make a prediction about whether IV will increase or decrease and whether you want risk up front or later.
Absolutely do not buy OTM debit spreads in any situation where you wouldn't buy the same position as a credit spread. Compared to a long call you're reducing your delta and vega in exchange for the possibility of theta gains as you reach the short leg of your spread. If you actually managed to reach the short leg of your debt spread before expiration a long call would have made many times more money and now you're stuck sitting on your debt spread waiting for theta to decay it to its maximum value at expiration. Every youtube resource I've seen on debt spread pricing is wrong, if your spread goes completely in the money you will not have something worth max value, you will have something that decays towards max value akin to a close to the money credit spread.
The best usage for OTM debt spreads is as hedges where you think the price will reach a certain point at some specific point in the future and you're worried about adverse movements in delta or IV between now and then.
Edit: For what to do with your cash position, you could put it into gold, bonds, bond etfs, non spy correlated stocks or whatever. Low risk theta gang strats are fine in bull markets but don't expect to make real money from them. I'm cash since volatility is high, u do u.
Demographic:International Grades:GPA 4.0(expected since I am taking A levels and exams scores are predicted) Subjects 1.Economics 2.Mathematics
4.language SAT:1570 Not giving SAT 2 due to corona-virus Attended Military School Brief EC list 1.Ted x Chapter Curator and Speaker(Founder Chapter)-Invited and Attended Tedx Conferences Internationally representing my country 2.Founded two very successful cryptocurrency companies(Not mentioning name to protect privacy)
Trading in Financial markets(more than 40k dollar account value)
-mainly trade Forex on margin through interactive brokers -Trade on Trader workstation software by Interactive brokers (also used by hedge funds) -Also trade stocks(Highest gain was investing in Carnival Corp when it was brink of bankruptcy and Saudi Fund invested) Average Returns of 14 percent on Stocks -Chess National Champion U18-Natioanlly ranked 23 overall as of 2020 -Captain Basketball Team(Regional Champions Junior Level) -Chess Club-Collaborated with national chess federation to organize events in regional events at School -National Astronomy magazine writer ---- Awards; 3 national level awards for Astronomy Represented Country Internationally at Spacecraft design Competition Won multiple Investing Competitions ------------------
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The outside trade showcase is otherwise called FX or it is likewise seen as alluded to as the FOREX. Each of the three of these have a similar significance, which is the exchange of exchanging between various organizations, banks, organizations, and governments that are situated in various nations. The money related market is one that is continually changing leaving exchanges required to be finished through representatives, and banks. Numerous tricks have been rising in the FOREX business, as remote organizations and individuals are setting up online to exploit individuals who don't understand that outside exchange must occur through a representative or an organization with direct support associated with outside trades. Money, stocks, and cash is exchanged through the outside trade markets. The FOREX market will be available and exist when one money is exchanged for another. Consider an excursion you may take to a remote nation. Where are you going to have the option to 'exchange your cash' for the estimation of the cash that is in that other nation? This is FOREX exchanging premise, and it isn't accessible in all banks, and it isn't accessible in every single money related focus. FOREX is a specific exchanging condition. Private venture and people in many cases hoping to bring in enormous cash, are the casualties of tricks with regards to finding out about FOREX and the remote exchange markets. As FOREX is viewed as how to make a fast buck or two, individuals don't scrutinize their cooperation in such an occasion, however on the off chance that you are not putting cash through an agent in the FOREX showcase, you could without much of a stretch wind up losing everything that you have put resources into the exchange. Tricks to be careful about A FOREX trick is one that includes exchanging however will end up being a cheat; you get no opportunity of getting your cash back once you have contributed it. If you somehow happened to put away cash with an organization expressing they are engaged with FOREX exchanging you need read near learn in the event that they are allowed to work together in your nation. Numerous organizations are not allowed in the FOREX advertise, as they have cheated speculators previously. Over the most recent five years, with the assistance of the Web, FOREX exchanging and the consciousness of FOREX exchanging has become extremely popular. Banks are the main hotspot for FOREX exchanging to occur, where a prepared and authorized merchant will finish exchanges and necessities you put forward. Commissions are paid on the exchange and this is the standard thing. Another kind of trick that is common in the FOREX markets is programming that will help you in making exchanges, in finding out about the outside business sectors and in rehearsing so you can set yourself up for following and making exchanges. You need to have the option to depend on a program or programming that is truly going to have any kind of effect. Talk with your budgetary specialist or your bank to become familiar with FOREX exchanging, the FX markets and how you can abstain from being the person in question while putting resources into these business sectors. #Future Academy
Is there any reason to be worried about potential hyperinflation or weakening of the USD in the near future? What steps can I take if yes?
From what little financial knowledge I do have, I can only suspect that COVID-19 as well as the various federal relief efforts may have an effect on inflation. But I don't actually know, can they? Is there any reason to worry as an average Joe? I have a little around $20k in savings; I was initially thinking of investing half of that into market indexes but I'm not entirely sure if that's a good idea right now, and if the economy is going to stay positive considering how piss poor the national situation is. Now I'm wondering if it may be better to go for a safe haven like gold or JPY instead? I'm not even sure about how the JPY is doing right now, actually. Also not entirely related to the topic question but I am due to move to Japan for business, hopefully sometime this year, if that will even be possible. If there is reason to believe that the USD will be getting weaker, maybe it would be a better idea to exchange now? It's kinda risky since I actually have no guarantee anymore if the move will even happen, ever. I'd like to stay out of Forex if possible but still, maybe there's a benefit here? Any relevant advice is appreciated.
Foreign Exchange Market Is Different From The Stock Market
The remote trade showcase is otherwise called the FX advertise, and the forex advertise. Exchanging that happens between two areas with various monetary forms is the reason for the fx advertise and the foundation of the exchanging this market. The forex advertise is more than thirty years of age, built up in the mid 1970's. The forex advertise is one that did not depend on any one business or putting resources into any one business, however the exchanging and selling of monetary forms. The contrast between the financial exchange and the forex advertise is the immense exchanging that happens on the forex showcase. There is millions and millions that are exchanged every day on the forex showcase, just about two trillion dollars is exchanged day by day. The sum is a lot higher than the cash exchanged on the every day securities exchange of any nation. The forex advertise is one that includes governments, banks, monetary establishments and those comparable sorts of foundations from different nations. What is exchanged, purchased and sold on the forex showcase is something that can without much of a stretch be sold, which means it very well may be turned around to money quick, or in many cases it is really going to be money. Starting with one money then onto the next, the accessibility of money in the forex advertise is something that can happen quick for any speculator from any nation. The distinction between the securities exchange and the forex showcase is that the forex advertise is worldwide, around the world. The securities exchange is something that happens just inside a nation. The financial exchange depends on organizations and items that are inside a nation, and the forex advertise makes that a stride further to incorporate any nation. The financial exchange has set business hours. For the most part, this will follow the business day, and will be shut on banking occasions and ends of the week. The forex showcase is one that is open commonly twenty four hours every day in light of the fact that the huge number of nations that are engaged with forex exchanging, purchasing and selling are situated in such a significant number of various occasions zones. As one market is opening, another nations advertise is shutting. This is the consistent technique for how the forex advertise exchanging happens. The securities exchange in any nation will be founded on just that nations money, state for instance the Japanese yen, and the Japanese financial exchange, or the United States securities exchange and the dollar. Be that as it may, in the forex advertise, you are associated with numerous kinds of nations, and numerous monetary standards. You will discover references to an assortment of monetary forms, and this is a major contrast between the securities exchange and the forex showcase. #future Academy
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