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I Can Make You Hot!: The Supermodel Diet (by Kelly Killoren Bensimon) -- Part Two

I hope you all have taken full advantage of the past 48 hours or so to regain some sense of normalcy after our adventures through Part 1 of Kelly Killoren Bensimon's I Can Make You Hot! Without further ado, Part Two:
I resume my journey through the truly incomprehensible mind of Kelly Bensimon with a chapter entitled, "Thursday: Tricks of My Trade." Now that we've learned about the basic building blocks of hotness, Kelly promises to share even more hard-earned advice to help us really kick things up a notch. And, as she reassures us:
I'm actually glad for the mistakes I've made because anyone who doesn't make mistakes doesn't learn, and if you don't learn, you're boring!
And if you're boring, you're not HOT! I think I'm starting to get the hang of this!
One of Kelly's most important life lessons came at her first horse show, when she made an unbelievably devastating misstep: "I decided to have an egg on a bagel from the food-service van." What kind of unimaginable ripple effects did this poor decision set off? I continue on to learn that Kelly "did all right in the competition." And…that's literally the whole story. Kelly legitimately refers to this as "one of my biggest lessons," as it taught her "to never eat more than I normally would." If life-changing breakthroughs were this easily sparked in my own life, I can't even begin to imagine how self-actualized I would be at this point.
At this point in my reading, I have reached the book's first insert, which contains about a dozen glossy color photos from various phases of Kelly's life. Unfortunately, I am far too preoccupied by this picture, in which a carefree, wind-swept Kelly clenches her infant daughter under one arm with all the grace of an NFL wide receiver, to pay the rest of the spread much mind.
We continue on as Kelly introduces new dimensions to the basic tips she's previously introduced. For example, you may have had some vague idea that water was important, but Kelly -- always there to help us learn and improve -- digs into the specifics to make sure we're up to date on the HOTtest tricks of the trade:
Staying hydrated is important no matter what you're doing, so I always try to drink eight glasses or about a liter of water a day. Soda isn't water. Coffee isn't water. Water is water. Drink throughout the day; don't try to get it all down at once. You wouldn't drown an orchid, so don't drown yourself.
I am putting in my formal request for a Public Service Announcement in this format, but using the last line of that passage. Also, Kelly clearly does not know how poorly I tend to my houseplants.
The next page informs us that, "hot isn't just caliente; it's also spicy and sultry." Kelly promptly launches into yet another list of miscellaneous grocery items, this time focused specifically on "red-hot foods." Except it includes entries like "popcorn with sugar and cinnamon," and "Mike and Ike candy," so I'm not convinced Kelly didn't just lose track of the thread entirely by the time we got a few items in. However, this does seem like an appropriate time to introduce this picture, from the book's second photo insert, which clearly depicts the sleep paralysis demon that has haunted my dreams for the past several nights. We're also treated to this chapter's first "hot button issue" panel, in which Kelly pulls back the curtain on the shadowy, pro-salt cabal trying to control us all with their anti-sodium legislative agenda:
We keep reading about how bad sodium is for our health, but if you eat fresh foods that you prepare yourself, you can determine and control the amount of salt you want to use. I, Kelly Killoren Bensimon, am perfectly capable of deciding how much salt I want to put on my food. I don't need anyone else to salt my food for me. I know that the amount of salt I choose to sprinkle on my food is not going to hurt me.
I read on to find a two-page spread in which Kelly expounds, in rhapsodic praise to rival that of Song of Solomon, upon her ardor for her beloved dehydrator -- "I though I was in love with coffee, but now I think my dehydrator is my truest love." Most of the passage is taken up by an unstructured list of the various things Kelly has attempted to dehydrate ("cucumber," "mangoes," "avocado") but she does manage to squeeze in a few infomercial-ready lines -- "Really, you should buy one; I promise you won't be sorry."
Since repetition is the key to reinforcing new concepts, I appreciate that Kelly's next list (of "a few more lean tricks I've learned along the way") repeats a note she originally relayed to us just a few pages ago:
Drink water throughout the day (not all at one sitting).
She's also been thoughtful enough to provide a list of resources for us to use as we soldier on along the perilous journey to HOT. After all, as Kelly says, "I don’t expect you to carry this book wherever you go -- as much as I would love that." As someone who has never before ventured into the wild world of cyberspace, I really appreciated Kelly introducing me to so many fun, useful websites that I might want to check out! In case you, too, just haven't figured out how to navigate this whole Internet thing, I've included a few examples below:
One-stop shopping for just about any book, periodical, or product you might want to read or buy in order to get HOT.
Everything you need to know to stay up to date on any sport.
Useful, up-to-date, trustworthy information on medical and health issues.
Claims to have "every recipe in the world"
Can't wait to check these out later! That Amazon one sounds super cool!
I'm reminded quickly just how inelegant the transitions in this book are as we move directly from that list into the following:
I suggest that you take a picture of yourself every day…Some days when you're feeling your fattest, you may be surprised to see that you really look great.
Okay, so fat is NOT HOT. Except being comfortable in your body is HOT. And trying to be skinny is NOT HOT. But being skinny is HOT. Thank goodness I still have a few more chapters to go -- I clearly still have a ways to go before I truly understand the logic of HOTness. As it stands, I must admit that I'm a bit baffled.
Of course, returning to the previous bit of advice, Kelly doesn't actually have to worry about taking her own pictures like us plebeians -- "Having been photographed so often has provided me with a permanent retrospective catalogue of my life." The chapter closes with these words of wisdom:
The best kind of vanity is being vain about what you put in your body.
Friday's chapter promises to introduce us to the world of "Hot Couture," and I am excited to see what tips and tricks Kelly has managed to accrue over her lifetime in the cutthroat world of modeling . But first, we abruptly transition to a story about Kelly meeting Madonna shortly after both women had given birth. Kelly had "gained a healthy fifty pounds," which I am led to believe, from the context of the anecdote, is NOT HOT. Madonna, on the other hand, was "flat-stomached" and therefore "HOT and cool." Of course, Kelly reassures us hurriedly that she lost all the weight within the following six weeks and was "actually thinner than I'd been prepregnancy." I am at an utter loss as to what the point of this story could possibly be, but -- blessedly -- Kelly is gracious enough to explain:
So what's the lesson here? That Madonna had personal trainers and chefs to whip her back into shape, and I didn't -- and still don’t. I shouldn't have been comparing myself to her in the first place. My advice to you is: don’t compare yourself to anyone else, only to your own personal best.
This is a perfect example of something Kelly does throughout this book, which is to present a completely reasonable piece of advice (don’t compare yourself to others), but couched within such a bizarre and logically disorganized narrative that by the time I reach the ultimate moral of the story, my brain feels like it's been run through a series of meat grinders, and I'm reduced to just nodding along in bemused acceptance.
We get a "Kelly's Cardinal Rule" reminding us to "let your body be what your body is and be happy with what you've got." I'm starting to wonder if there is some sort of Dr. Jekyll / Mr. Hyde thing going on behind the scenes here, in which two versions of Kelly are frantically grappling over control of the book's body-positivity dial. I'm literally don't even have to flip the page to see Kelly commiserating with us that "we all have days or occasions when we feel fat" and quipping about her "go-to fat outfit." But also:
Stop praying for what you don't have and be grateful for what you've got.
This amount of cognitive dissonance is truly proof that Kelly contains multitudes. Or has recently acquired some sort of debilitating short-term amnesia. Nevertheless, we continue:
But whatever your shape, show it off. Don’t try to hide it. Hiding is not hot.
Kelly next walks us through figuring out which "season" we are, based on the wisdom extolled in "Color Me Beautiful, the groundbreaking book that was so wildly successful in the early 80s." It's no surprise to me that Kelly, who earlier encouraged us to make our lives easier by using our PDAs, finds this to be an exciting new trend to share. Also, in case you weren't aware, "hair color is also important. You can lighten it or darken it or cover the gray." Lighten it or darken it? The boundaries of my mental universe are truly expanding.
Some more fashion tidbits:
Scarves are hippie chic, cool, and always HOT.

If you're narrow, show off how narrow you are with a monochromatic palette.

Ankles are the new cleavage!
Narrow ankles only, I presume. Kelly's selfless, giving nature is highlighted yet again in the following passage, in which she explains:
All these celebrities have stylists who pull the clothes, accessories, and shoes that make them look the way they do. They charge a lot of money for what they do, so why not get some free advice based on my experience.
And what, pray tell, is this coveted advice that Kelly is so lovingly sharing with her readers, free of charge?
  1. Save sweatpants for the gym.
  2. Save PJs for the bedroom.
  3. Dress as if you were the boss.
  4. Remember what Carrie Bradshaw says: "Nothing is casual anymore, even when it says so on the invitation."
  5. Manolo Blahniks are a girl's best friend.
Okay, so far be it from me to complain about the quality of free advice. But. Out of the five pearls of wisdom that make up the "KKBStyle Rules," two of them are rudimentary instructions to wear somewhat-situationally-appropriate clothing, and the other three are the kind of cute sayings that you would find on a piece of poorly bedazzled wall art in the clearance aisle of your local TJMaxx. I'm not impressed.
Kelly next tells us how important it is to eat well and exercise, even "when you're premenstrual or having your period." That way, as she continues on, "you'll feel better because your endorphins will be flowing while your body is sloughing off unwanted endometrium and mucus." To be fair, Unwanted Endometrium does sound like a sick band name.
Thankfully, the mental image of Kelly's mucus slough is promptly booted from my mind by a careening diatribe about the color red (HOT!):
I even painted my nails red the minute I started writing this book. I wanted to see my short red nails tapping away on my Macbook Pro. Almost every red dress is smokin' HOT, and I've never met a guy who doesn't think a woman in a red dress isn't hot. He's a liar if he denies it.
To repeat, Kelly says she's "never met a guy who doesn’t think a woman in a red dress isn't hot." Poor dear got a bit carried away with her negatives, but I'm sure she'll redeem herself in no time:
When I was sitting in the front row of a Marc Jacobs fashion show a few years ago, I wore a full, red short skirt, a tight red sweater, and red open-toed shoes. One of the editors from The New York Times was sitting across from me, and as we were waiting for the show to begin I kept crossing and recrossing my legs to make him laugh.
Sure, Kelly. To make him laugh. I can only assume she must have written some kind of hilariously clever joke on the gusset of her underwear to have had this editor so tickled pink red.
It was a long wait and after a while some guy I didn't know who was at the other end of the row, leapt towards me and screamed that he was obsessed with my feet. How crazy is it that red open-toed shoes and red toenails could create such a reaction. Red is HOT, even stalker HOT. Yikes!
I'm not clear where "stalker HOT" fits into this whole complex web, but it's reassuring to know that a wise soul like Kelly has such a nuanced appreciation of all of the different ways to be hot. She also gives us some "HOT tips for heating up your image." Like,
Put on a pair of jeans and a white tee shirt.

Put your hair in a ponytail.

Put on a pair of hoop earrings.
And also
Wear your jeans a size smaller instead of a size larger.
For some reason not entirely clear to me at this moment, wearing jeans in your actual size does not seem to be an option.
The chapter continues with a reminder to "remember what's on top of your head!"
There's nothing hotter than a HOT head of hair (unless it's a hunky bald guy).
Kelly follows up by offering a list of what she calls "HOT healthy options." Based on the preceding paragraph, you might assume that these tips would have something to do with haircare and hair styling. However, you would be wrong. Instead, we're instructed to:
Enjoy as much watermelon as you like.

Pack a picnic lunch of dehydrated fruit, chamomile iced tea, and mini pizzas made with corn tortillas, cherry tomatoes, and mozzarella cheese. Eat your picnic in the park.

Come up with something fun you want to try and do it!
Personally, it seems like a bit of a cop-out to make one of the items on your list of fun things to do "make up your own fun thing to do." But who knows? Maybe cop-outs are HOT!
Before my faith in our fearless leader starts to waver, however, I read on through the end of the chapter, and my surety is promptly restored:
Besides my hair and my legs, the one thing people always ask me about the way I look is how I keep my teeth so white. And yes, that's also a matter of genetics. I'm blessed with the whitest teeth on the planet, and, no, I've never had them professionally bleached.
The weekend begins as I turn the page to the penultimate chapter -- "Saturday: Heat Up Your HOT Image with Healthy Options Today." Saturdays, as Kelly tells us, are for fun activities. For example:
If you're in the mall, go to different stores and figure out which looks will make you HOT. Ask other shoppers for advice.
Parks are great for people-watching. Who looks fit and healthy?
I sincerely hope that any and all of my friends would give me a stern talking-to if I informed them that my weekend plans consisted of going to a park and…pointing out people I think aren't healthy enough?
Kelly then warns us against overindulging on late-night snacks or alcoholic beverages, lest we wake up Sunday feeling "bloating, sluggish, and with deep regrets." Presumably, Kelly then proceeded to rail a massive line of cocaine and hammer out the following frenetic spiel:
You're not going to get fat from having a few drinks a week. You will get fat if your routine is to drink, eat late, and then lie around watching television the next day, eating and making bad food choices. Going out is fun, but when you sacrifice the next day, it's never fun enough. Don't have regrets; enjoy every day. This is a life plan, and yesterday isn't coming back ever again.
The chapter comes to a close with a reminder to "wrap up every day with a great big bow and be ready for your next adventure. But before we close out our week of HOT, we're provided with what I anticipate will be an incredibly useful reference material for us all, the "KKBfit HOT Quiz." If you'd like to take the quiz yourself, you can find it here. However, I'm not entirely sure I would classify it as a "quiz," since it seems to be mostly a set of questions followed by Kelly's feedback on various possible responses. For example:
  1. How Kelly Green are you?
I had a Kelly Green Juice -- Wasn't it yummy?
I had a smoothie from the health food store with a splash of spinach -- Great choice!
I had kale chips, spinach, and quinoa for dinner last night -- I bet you woke up feeling great this morning!
I presume that the lack of response after the "Other?" choice is supposed to represent Kelly staring at me in deranged disappointment for a few painfully protracted seconds. Some questions, like the one above, don't seem to have any wrong answers at all. In contrast, other questions have clear wrong answers, which Kelly wastes no time in making apparent:
  1. Are you getting enough protein? How many days did you eat chicken, fish, or meat for at least one meal?
I had a grilled chicken salad for dinner on three different days -- That's good, but I wish you'd get a little more adventurous in your choices.

  1. How KKBfit are you?
Haven't had a meal since last night, but I'm going to skip breakfast and go on a run. I won't eat anything until lunch. -- Sorry, but starving your body is not KKBfit.

  1. Are you drinking enough?
I drink when I'm exercising but that's about it -- Not good enough! Try harder next week.
The quiz ends, leaving me entirely unsure of whether or not I've actually made any forward progress towards my HOTness goals, but the next page does promise help for those who "still need more inspiration." Here, it seems that Kelly has compiled a loose assortment of quotes, most of which (I have a sneaking suspicion) were found by searching the keyword "hot" on Also, this masterpiece from Kelly's ex-husband, noted fashion photographer Gilles Bensimon:
It is not about the look,
It is not only about the charm,
It is the perfect combination:
Sweet and tough,
Sexy and reserved,
Fragile and powerful,
And definitely smart.
-- Gilles Bensimon
Move over, Rupi Kaur! I hope with every fiber of my being that Gilles Bensimon has published his collected poetry in some kind of volume that I could purchase, read, and have, I'm sure, nothing but positive things to say about. After about a dozen similar quotations, Kelly continues:
Now, as you get ready for Sunday Funday, take a few minutes to think about how you define HOT. Has your definition changed or evolved since you started reading this book? If so, I'm doing my job.
In all honesty, my definition of HOT has definitely been…affected by this experience. So we'll call that a win! Kelly tells us a few stories about times when her friends and family members have come to her for guidance on how to be hot. She explains:
I'm not the food police, but I've made myself the Sven-arbiter (as opposed to Svengali) of what's HOT and what's not.
Case in point:
It's just not hot to belong to the clean plate club.
The chapter closes with a list titled "Why Don't You," which I believe is supposed to be a list of fun activities we can try during a Sunday Funday. Or possibly a list of terrible life hacks for stoned college freshmen:
Use an electric teapot as a clothing steamer.

Make grilled cheese sandwiches or press wraps using a hot clothes iron.
There are very few things sadder to me that imagining someone taking Kelly up on this last bit of advice as a fun way to liven up what must be the most preternaturally boring existence possible. If your idea of fun is white bread and Kraft Singles getting slowly warmed over on your clothing iron, I can only imagine the fit of hysterics that you'd be thrown into by a passable Minions meme.
And that brings us to the end of the week. But not -- lucky you! -- to the end of this book. Au contraire -- the remaining 100 pages or so of I Can Make You Hot! feature dozens of unique recipes from the culinary mind of none other than the indomitable Kelly Bensimon herself. In her intro, however, she makes it clear that
No one on earth would ever call me a chef.
Of course not, Kelly -- they'd call you a cook. Otherwise, it's creepy.
This portion of the book begins, reasonably enough, with Breakfasts. These include such thoughtfully named delicacies as "My Favorite Cereal" and "My Favorite Pancakes." The recipe for the latter begins with the following introduction:
I'm not the greatest pancake maker, and I probably never will be. But what I am very good at is thinking of unusual things and doing them.
Frankly, I can't argue with that. As she continues:
When in pancake doubt, have fun, add fruit, and see if pancakes can be a vehicle for creating great memories for your family.
Next time I'm in pancake doubt, I'll know just what to do! We move right along into the Soups and Salads section, and are promptly introduced to Kelly's "Jimmy Achoo's Chicken Soup." Which is apparently a play on Jimmy Choo and also described by Kelly as "filled with veggie exploitation," which sounds terrifying. Of the next recipe, "Rich and Skinny Cauliflower Soup with Kale Chips," Kelly reflects:
I adapted this recipe from one I found on the Internet. I wish I could tell you exactly where, but I can't.
The recipe calls for kale chips, which Kelly goes out of her way to inform us can be purchased "at health food stores and many well-stocked supermarkets." We also get a few general "HOT salad tips" that can be applied to many of the recipes throughout this book, such as
There are so many different types of lettuces available today! Try different ones to see which you like best
When you order a salad in a restaurant, ask for the dressing on the side. You're a grown-up and you should get to decide how much you want to use.
With that under our belts, the grown-ups among us move on to "Meat, Chicken, and Fish." In her recipe for "Grilled Rib Eye with Herbes de Provence", Kelly tells us about meeting the famous chef who inspired this dish:
When I met Eric, who was still in his thirties at the time, he still had dark hair. I was caught off guard because I thought all chefs were older, had gray hair, and smelled like garlic.
So perhaps Bethenny should have taken it as a compliment? Kelly continues,
He's since invited me many times to go into his kitchen and cook with him, but my fear of losing a finger by being overzealous has prohibited me from accepting.
It's unclear to me exactly what this means or why Kelly would even be particularly worried about this possibility. Does she have habit of excitedly snatching vegetables out from other people's knives? Does Eric have a reputation for slicing anyone who dares to get in his way? Before I make any headway with this particular mystery, we're introduced to the next recipe, the "Pencil-Thin Skirt Steak." As we learn, "Everyone looks slim in a pencil skirt, so it's only fitting that skirt steak is one of the leanest cuts of beef you can buy." We get a recipe for "Sultry Roast Chicken" in which Kelly shares with us that "in fact, chicken without ginger doesn't taste like chicken to me anymore." This would be more believable if we weren't, a mere two pages later, introduced to a notably ginger-free recipe for "Second-Chance Chicken." As Kelly explains,
I hate the idea of leftovers. To me, eating leftovers means you're too lazy to start over, and I've never wanted my girls to think that we weren't starting fresh.
In the introduction to the recipe for "Bad Girl Wings," Kelly gives us yet another poignant insight into her life as a mother:
These chicken wings are Sea's favorite. I'm sure she loves them because she knows I love wings (she's a cutie like that).
It would obviously be ludicrous to assume that Sea actually enjoys chicken wings authentically. Much more likely that she just loves them because Kelly does. HOT! In a segment labeled "hasta la vista taco bell," Kelly recounts a traumatic experience in which she "discovered that my favorite food choices [at Taco Bell] added up to 580 calories." To me, this seems like a perfectly reasonable amount of calories for one daily meal out of three, but according to Kelly, I am embarrassingly off the mark. Rather, she sighs, "I guess that means my Taco Bell days are over -- unless I decide to chance [sic] Sunday Funday into Fatso Food Day." Not HOT.
Kelly tells us about the creative process behind the development of the next recipe, "Spicy Sultry Shrimp and Mango Stir-Fry" (which, for the record, is the second recipe to have the word "sultry" in its title).
This was one of the first dishes I made when I started to cook -- as a science experiment. My "method" was to think of foods I loved and which ones I thought would go well together.
Fascinating! Think of ingredients you like and combine them into a dish that you will then likely also like! The next recipe, for "Kelly's Kalamari," features the following introduction:
I still love fried calamari, but it doesn't love me. Whenever I eat it, it goes right to my stomach and makes a little pooch -- eww!
As a reminder, this is the same Kelly Bensimon who told us that loving our bodies is HOT and dieting is die + t. But also, eww!
We trek along into the next portion of the recipe book, succinctly titled "Pizza, Pasta, Potatoes, Grains, Vegetables, and Sides." We get a recipe for "Pizzzzzzzza!," which instructs the reader to obtain pizza dough, pizza sauce, mozzerella cheese, salt and pepper. Spread out the dough, add sauce and cheese, and cook! This is yet another time I'm glad Kelly told us early on in this book to take detailed notes -- these kinds of nuanced culinary creations can only come from the mind of a true master.
The same kind of true master who would, as we soon learn, conceive of this particular travesty -- "Pink Pizza." Imagine with me, for a moment, that a dear friend invites you over to their house for dinner. I'm making pizza! they implore you. Come over -- we'll hang out, have a couple beers, catch up on old times! Excited for a chance to relive the glory days, you eagerly accept, only to be met -- upon your arrival -- with this abomination. I thought you said we were having pizza? you sputter nervously. This is pizza, your friend intones, as their eyes slowly fade to black and their hands reach out to wrap themselves around your throat.
Kelly goes on to share a recipe for an "Asian-flavored noodle dish" that she has christened (and it truly pains me to type this), "Me Love You Springtime Noodles." Somewhere, the last ember of hope for humanity quietly fizzles out.
The following recipe, for "Pasta with Oddkavodka Sauce" begins with a warning:
When you make this (especially for children) just be sure you cook off the alcohol so that you aren't serving vodka to minors or have to assign a designated driver for your guests.
This seems like reasonable and conscientious advice. Until I read on and learn that the recipe calls for 1/8 cup vodka, and makes four servings. If your guests need a designated driver after consuming a half-tablespoon of vodka each, I would strongly encourage them to seek medical advice forthwith.
I am reminded once again how different Kelly's and my worlds are with the following exclamation:
Try using quinoa in this recipe instead of the rice -- I call that having your cake and eating it too!
Oh, to live a life in which your most selfish indulgence was quinoa. I suppose this should have prepared me for a few pages later, when Kelly remarks:
Both hummus and guacamole make great toppings for steak or fish. They're my version of béarnaise sauce.
I love hummus. Hummus is great. But there is no possible existing parallel universe in which hummus and béarnaise sauce are interchangeable. One of the final recipes in this section is cryptically titled "Have an Impromptu Pepper Party" and instructs the reader to scoop out the insides of a bell pepper and stuff it with "whatever ingredients suit your fancy." Again, I feel like this fails to meet the definition of an actual recipe, per se, but it is supposedly "quick, fun, and satisfying."
We're nearing the book's end (for real this time) with a section on "Breads and Desserts." This includes an inspirational passage in which Kelly shares a personal anecdote:
On Season 4 of the Real Housewives of New York City, I made a mixed fruit pie for my kids with what was left over in the fruit bowl…Don't be afraid to try new things, make mistakes, and have fun doing it.
I can only hope to someday be brave enough and fearless enough to make a mixed fruit pie.
Blessedly, the final section , titled "Beverages", looks like it might have exactly what I need in the aftermath of finishing this book. The "GIN-Ginger Beertail," for example, which "was originally made with gin, but I don't like serving gin drinks because I think it makes people mean." We also get a recipe for something called "Babylove," which (thankfully) seems unrelated to another of my favorite reality TV cesspools.
It only seems appropriate to share the final recipe of I Can Make You Hot! with all of you. I will definitely be downing approximately seven of these tonight, and I hope some of you will be joining me in spirit. Cheers:
Gummi Bear Martini
If you don't have a paper umbrella handy, Gummi Bears are a great way to put more fun in your drink.
Makes 1 Drink
2 parts orange, grape, or other-flavored vodka
1 part Triple Sec
1 part white grape juice
Splash of cranberry juice
Gummi Bears, as many as you like
Combine the vodka, Triple Sec, grape juice, and cranberry juice in a tall glass. Add ice and fill the glass with Gummi Bears.
ETA: I am so disappointed in myself for forgetting to include that Kelly has a ceviche recipe that instructs you to marinate raw fish in lemon juice for exactly two minutes before serving. In the interest of food safety, perhaps it was for the best that this nugget momentarily slipped my mind, but sharing this information with you all is the burden I have been cursed to bear. 🙏🏼
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[Game Preview] Week 16 - Philadelphia Eagles(7-7) vs. Dallas Cowboys (7-7)

Philadelphia Eagles (7-7) vs Dallas Cowboys (7-7)
The Eagles welcome the Cowboys to the friendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field with the division on the line. A win for Eagles keeps their playoffs hopes alive for another week, while a win for the Cowboys would cliche the division. While it looked the Cowboys hit their stride last week against a tough Rams team, the Eagles struggled against the 3-11 Redskins. The Eagles will need to play better this week week especially on the defensive side of the ball where Jim Schwartz’s Cover-1 scheme has struggled in shutting down opponents passing attacks. If the Eagles can’t put together a complete game from the offense and defense, they could see themselves playing a meaningless game next week and some of the coaching staff could be looking for the jobs in the offseason. Go Birds!
General Information
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Sunday, December 22nd, 2019
Game Time Game Location
4:25 PM - Eastern Lincoln Financial Field
3:25 PM - Central 1020 Pattison Ave
2:25 PM - Mountain Philadelphia, PA 19148
1:25 PM - Pacific Wikipedia - Map
Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 42°F
Feels Like: 39°F
Forecast: Partly Cloudy. Mostly cloudy throughout the day.
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Cloud Coverage: 32%
Wind: Southwest 4 MPH
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Dalaas -1.5
OveUnder: 49
Record VS. Spread: Eagles 5-9, Cowboys 8-6
Where to Watch on TV
FOX will broadcast Sunday’s game to a national audience. Joe Buck will handle the play-by-play duties and Troy Aikman will provide analysis. Erin Andrews will report from the sideline.
TV Map - Week 16 TV Coverage Map
Internet Streams
NFL Streams - Look here 30 minutes before the game for Streams
Radio Streams
Disclaimer: Subscription Based Official NFL Radio Streams available via TuneIn
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability 94.1 Desktop Streaming
Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (42nd season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA WIP-FM 94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA WCTO-FM 96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey WENJ-FM 97.3 FM
Levittown, PA WBCB-AM 1490 AM
Northumberland, PA WEGH-FM 107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA WPPA-AM 1360 AM
Reading, PA WEEU-AM 830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA WEJL-FM 96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WEJL-AM 630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WBAX-AM 1240 AM
Williamsport, PA WBZD-FM 93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE WDEL-FM/AM 101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA WSOX-FM 96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo, Macu Berral and Gus Salazar will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA LA MEGA 105.7 FM
Allentown, PA WSAN 1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ WIBG 1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Dallas Radio
Dallas Cowboys Radio Network Brad Sham returns for his 41st season in the Dallas Cowboys radio booth. Beloved by Cowboys fans, Sham's award winning play-by-play has provided the soundtrack to many of the most memorable moments in Dallas Cowboys history. Babe Laufenberg returns as the Network's full-time color analyst. A fixture on the sideline, veteran reporter Kristi Scales provides instant updates from the field.
National Radio
SportsUSA will broadcast the game to a national audience with Josh Appel on play-by-play and Brandon Noble providing analysis.
Satellite Radio
Station Eagles Channel Cowboys Channel
Sirius Radio SIRI 83 (Internet 825) SIRI 121 (Internet 808)
XM Radio XM 226 (Internet 825) XM 226 (Internet 808)
Sirius XM Radio SXM 226 (Internet 825) SXM 381 (Internet 808)
Eagles Social Media Cowboys Social Media
Website Website
Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
Instagram Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles Snapchat: cowboys
NFC East Standings
NFC EAST Record PCT Home Road Div Conf PF PA Net Pts Streak
Eagles 7-7 .500 4-3 3-4 4-0 6-4 378 288 +90 1W
Cowboys 7-7 .500 4-3 3-4 3-1 5-5 334 328 +6 2W
Giants 3-11 .214 2-5 1-6 1-3 2-8 283 382 -99 W1
Redskins 3-11 .214 1-5 2-5 0-4 2-8 215 347 -132 2L
Series Information
The Dallas Cowboys lead the Philadelphia Eagles (69-52)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
September 30th, 1960 at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX. Dallas Cowboys 25 - Philadelphia Eagles 27
Points Leader
The Dallas Cowboys lead the Philadelphia Eagles (2641-2384)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 2-5 against the Cowboys
Jason Garrett: 11-8 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Jason Garrett: Garrett leads 5-2
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Cowboys: 2-4
Dak Prescott: Against Eagles: 5-2
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Dak Prescott: Prescott leads 4-2
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Cowboys lead the Eagles: 10-6
Record @ AT&T Stadium: Series tied: 6-6
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 12 - Cowboys No. 15
2019 Record
Eagles: 7-7
Cowboys 7-7
Last 10 Meetings
Date Winner Loser Score
10/20/2019 Cowboys Eagles 37-10
12/9/2018 Cowboys Eagles 29-23
11/11/2018 Cowboys Eagles 27-20
12/31/2017 Cowboys Eagles 6-0
11/19/2017 Eagles Cowboys 37-9
1/1/2017 Eagles Cowboys 27-13
10/30/2016 Cowboys Eagles 29-23
11/8/2015 Eagles Cowboys 33-27
9/20/2015 Cowboys Eagles 20-10
12/14/2014 Cowboys Eagles 38-27
Injury Reports Depth Charts
Eagles Eagles
Cowboys Cowboys
2019 “Expert” Picks
Week 16 - "Expert" Picks
2019 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Cowboys Season Stats
2019 Stats (Starters/Leaders)
Wentz 334 527 63.4% 3421 25 7 92.3
Prescott 340 519 65.5% 4334 26 11 99.3
Sanders 150 687 49.1 4.6 2
Elliott 270 1188 84.9 4.4 11
Ertz 84 888 63.4 10.1 6
Cooper 71 1073 76.6 15.1 8
Name Sacks Team Total
Graham 7.5 37
Quinn 9.5 36
Name Total Solo Assist Sacks
McLeod 71 42 29 1.0
Smith 125 78 47 2.5
Name Ints Team Total
Gerry/McLeod/Darby 2 10
Woods/Lewis 2 6
Johnston 22 1039 60 47.2 44.3 12 0 0
Jones 60 1780 61 47.1 42.9 24 4 0
Elliot 21 19 90.5% 53 29/31
Forbath 3 3 100% 50 5/5
Kick Returns
Sanders 14 314 22.4 67 0
Pollard 10 147 14.7 28 0
Punt Returns :-|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-: Name|RET|YDS|AVG|LONG|TD|FC Scott|6|44|7.2|13|0|4 Austin|14|79|5.6|15|0|9
League Rankings 2019
Offense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Cowboys Stat Cowboys Rank
Total Offense 352.9 15th(t) 434.0 1st
Rush Offense 121.4 11th 134.0 6th
Pass Offense 231.5 16th 300.0 2nd
Points Per Game 23.9 12th 27.0 5th(t)
3rd-Down Offense 47.0% 2nd 48.6% 1st
4th-Down Offense 33.3% 28th(t) 38.5% 23rd(t)
Red Zone Offense (TD%) 66.0% 5th 59.2% 13th
Defense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Cowboys Stat Cowboys Rank
Total Defense 329.2 11th 323.6 7th
Rush Defense 90.4 3rd 103.6 12th
Pass Defense 238.8 18th 220.0 8th
Points Per Game 23.4 16th 20.6 12th
3rd-Down Defense 35.4% 9th(t) 34.3% 4th
4th-Down Defense 66.7% 30th(t) 55.6% 22nd(t)
Red Zone Defense (TD%) 61.5% 24th 52.0% 9th(t)
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Cowboys Stat Cowboys Rank
Turnover Diff. -6 12th(t) -1 16th
Penalty Per Game 6.4 8th(t) 6.9 17th(t)
Penalty Yards Per Game 53.6 8th 64.8 25th(t)
Eagles RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai is a native of Haltom, TX and went to Haltom High School. Vaitai played collegiately at TCU in Fort Worth, TX
Eagles S Jalen Mills was born in Dallas and grew up in DeSoto, TX and went to Desoto High School.
Cowboys Safeties Coach Greg Jackson played for the Eagles during the 1994-95 season.
Cowboys DT Justin Hamilton played one season for the Eagles in 2017.
Cowboys PS QB Clayton Thorston was drafted in the 5th round of the 2019 NFL draft, but was released during final cuts.
Cowboys Director of Pro Scouting Judd Garrett was selected in the 12th round of the 1990 NFL Draft by the Philadelphia Eagles but was released before the season began.
Cowboys Assistant Director of Video Stephen Gagliardino began his NFL career in 1995 as a ball boy with the Philadelphia Eagles when he was 16 years old, working training camp and game days at Veterans Stadium. He did that for four seasons before moving over to the Eagles video department in 1999, where he worked full time as an intern for three seasons (1999-2001).
Many Cowboys fans were born and raised in the Greater Philadelphia Area, however have no ties to Dallas nor have ever been to the city.
Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett was born in Abington, PA, located roughly 15 miles north of Philadelphia
Eagles DT Fletcher Cox and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott played together at Mississippi State University when Prescott was a red shirt freshman.
Eagles OT Lane Johnson is from Groveton, TX and has family who are Cowboys fans including his grandmother who was told “Shut up, if you want to see 75” while she was rooting for the Cowboys.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles Cowboys
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter) OT Tyron Smith (starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter) RB Ezekiel Elliott
TE Zach Ertz G Zack Martin (starter)
C Jason Kelce (Starter) C Travis Fredrick
LS Rick Lavato (Starter)
Referee: Tony Corrente
Since 2000, Philadelphia has produced a 21-18 regular-season record vs. Dallas, which marks the highest winning percentage (.538) by an NFC East team against the Cowboys in that span.
Since 2016 (under Doug Pederson), the Eagles are 8-3 (.727) at home against NFC East opponents.
Including playoffs, Philadelphia has the 4th-best home winning percentage (.727, 24-9) in the NFL since 2016, trailing only New England (.857, 30-5) and Minnesota (.774, 24-7).
The Eagles have won 7 of their last 10 contests (.700) at Lincoln Financial Field.
Miles Sanders holds the Eagles rookie records in single-season scrimmage yards (1,120), previously held by DeSean Jackson (1,008 in 2008) and single-season rushing yards (687), previously held by LeSean McCoy (637 in 2009).
Carson Wentz has thrown a TD in 17 consecutive regular-season games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL.
hiladelphia owns the 2nd-best third-down percentage, converting at a 47.0% clip, trailing only Dallas (48.6%).
The Eagles are allowing 90.4 rush yards per game, ranking 3rd in the NFL, behind Tampa Bay (73.3) and NYJ (88.8).
Philadelphia is tied with Houston for the 5th-best red zone percentage in the NFL (65.96%), trailing only Tennessee (73.17%), Green Bay (68.89%), Baltimore (68.42%) and Minnesota (66.00%). The Eagles have converted either a TD or FG on 95.74% (45/47) of their red zone drives this season, which is the highest percentage in the NFL.
The Eagles defense has forced a 3-and-out on 27.4% (45/164) of opponent possessions this season, which is tied with Chicago for the highest percentage in the league.
Among NFL TEs this season, Zach Ertz ranks 2nd in receptions (84), behind Travis Kelce (86) and 3rd in receiving yards (888), behind Kelce (1,131) and Darren Waller (1,001).
Brandon Graham has a team-leading 7.5 sacks and 15 tackles for loss this season.
Since Week 13, Carson Wentz leads the NFL in both red zone passing TDs (8) and third-down passing TDs (5).
Draft Picks
Eagles Cowboys
OT Andre Dillard DT Trysten Hill
RB Miles Sanders OG Connor McGovern
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside RB Tony Pollard
WR Shareff Miller CB Michael Jackson
QB Clayton Thorson DE Joe Jackson
S Donovan Wilson
RB Mike Weber
DE Jalen Jelks
Notable Offseason Additions
Eagles Cowboys
WR Desean Jackson WR Randall Cobb
DT Malik Jackson DE Kerry Hyder
DE Vinny Curry TE Jason Witten
S Andrew Sendejo DT Christian Covington
LB Zach Brown DE Robert Quinn
DT Hassan Ridgeway
QB Josh McCown
RB Jay Ajayi
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles Cowboys
QB “Big Dick” Nick Foles WR Cole Beasley
DE Michael Bennett WR Cole Beasley
DE Chris Long RB Rod Smith
S Chris Maragos WR Terrance Williams
RB Jay Ajayi DT David Irving
RB Josh Adams TE Geoff Swaim
RB Wendell Smallwood DE Taco Charlton
WR Jordan Matthews OLB Damien Wilson
DT Haloti Ngata
Eagles TE Zach Ertz (30) needs 1 TD to move up to 11th on the Eagles all-time receiving TD list all-time tying WR Jack Ferrante and Brent Celek and he needs two TDs to move up to 10th all-time tying WR Ben Hawkins.
Eagles TE Zach Ertz (5193) needs 171 yards to most up to 7th on the Eagles all-time receiving yards list passing Eagles TE/HB Bobby Watson.
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (34) needs 2 TDs to move into a tie for 7th on the Eagles all-time receiving TD list tying Jeremy Maclin.
Eagles WR Desean Jackson (6271) needs 194 yards to move up to 3rd on the Eagles all-time receiving yard list to moving ahead of Mike Quick.
Eagles S Malcolm Jenkins's (4) needs 1 more Interception for a TD to tie CB Eric Allen (5) for most Interceptions for a TD by an Eagles player.
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (78) needs 2 TDs to move into a tie with Dallas QB Craig Morton for 6th on the Cowboys all-time passing TD list.
Pro Football Focus Matchup Charts courtesy of PFF Edge (
WDB Matchups (CAPS = expected shadow coverage)
Stats to Know
Randall Cobb
Of all qualifying WRs, there is only one other receiver--including RBs and TEs--more exclusively utilized in the Slot than Dallas WR Randall Cobb (91.5% of snaps). There is also only one more purely Slot receiver with a lower target percentage than Cobb (16.0%). When looking at overall target share across Cowboys players, Cobb sits at about 14% target share, as compared to Cooper (21%), Gallup (19%), Witten (15%), Elliott (12%), and Jarwin (8%). Cobb is 2nd among Cowboys in Yards After Catch per Reception (6.0) to Zeke (8.1). He is also tied for 43rd among all qualifying WRs in PFF Receiving Grade (71.1).
Matchups to Watch
Cowboys Pass Defense vs Eagles Passing Attack
The Eagles patchwork passing offense is the key matchup for Philly in this contest. No one should expect the Eagles revolving door of suck in the secondary to hold up well against one of the most talented and efficient passing attacks in the NFL. Cooper, Cobb, and Gallup will be too much for Philadelphia to handle – and that doesn’t include Jarwin and Zeke. The most logical path for the Eagles to win this game is to keep pace and outscore Dallas in a shootout. Dallas will enter Sunday’s contest with the 22nd ranked defense by DVOA – 23rd passing, 18th against the run – which presents an opportunity for the beleaguered Eagles passing attack. Fumbles aside, Carson Wentz had a pretty good game against the Redskins and a good second half against the Giants to end the 3 game skid they were on previously. The Cowboys defense is better than their previous two opponents but not by much. This is a secondary that can be exploited, especially at safety. Additionally, the Cowboys will likely be without LVE again. Sean Lee is a capable back up now and shouldn’t be ignored, but that is a hit the Cowboys have had to deal with on the season. This receiving group is bottom of the barrel and isn’t improving any time soon. JJAW is still a limited receiver they need to lean on; maybe the Eagles should have given him reps early in the season so he could be more ready now? Greg Ward has been a decent contributor to the offense all things considered. Then what? Alshon is out. Agholor will probably be out, fortunately. Desean has been out. The receivers the Eagles have at their disposal is bleak. This is a passing attack that flows through the TEs and RBs. While they have had some success the last two games, they’ll need to be creative in their approach to avoid being predictable as it is not a sustainable path to victory. Teams have shown a willingness to do all they can to eliminate Philly’s best receiver, Ertz, and Dallas is no different. The Eagles need to leave everything out on the field from a coaching and execution standpoint to take back the East.
Cowboys Passing Offense vs. Eagles “Secondary”
Despite perception, the Eagles still have a very good pass rush despite challenges in that area this year. They just don’t have a secondary that can a) cover and b) cover enough to force QBs to hold onto the ball long enough for the pass rush to get home. What has been the theme against the Eagles secondary in their last 3 games? The answer would be a quick time to throw from the opposing QBs. The Eagles cannot play man coverage as they don’t have the personnel to do it. They struggle with single high coverage as they don’t really have good enough safeties to cover. The answer is, and always was, through against this substandard secondary quickly to defeat the rush… plays will be made. This doesn’t change on Sunday with the strong receiving group the Cowboys enter Sunday with, Dak shoulder injury be damned. Amari Cooper has done nothing but roast Philadelphia since he became a Cowboy. Cobb is a quality slot receiver and Gallup is a young receiver that is rapidly improving on a weekly basis. All 3 of these receivers get open against man and zone coverage. All 3 of these receivers are able to consistently make plays on the ball that Philly absolutely cannot. In addition to the 3 receivers, the Cowboys still have Zeke out of the backfield to go along with the plodding, but reliable Jason Witten. Blake Jarwin is growing into a good tight end that is a capable blocker and receiver. Simply put, the Cowboys have a pretty loaded offensive core for Dak to throw to. This is a matchup that leans strongly the Cowboys way. Any stops or turnovers generated by the secondary will go a long way to determining the winner of this contest. Lastly, in terms of Dak’s injury, his effectiveness will be key to Dallas’s success on Sunday. It’s just hard to project what they’ll look like at this point in time.
Cowboys Offensive Line vs Eagles Defensive Front
The Cowboys handily won in the trenches in this area in their first matchup this year. The Eagles defensive front is playing better at this point of the season than they were earlier in year which should help, but the pass rush isn’t as prolific as it once was. The first matchup had the Eagles missing Nigel Bradham and a few days removed from cutting Zach Brown; Dallas took every opportunity to pound the Eagles substandard linebacking room into the dirt. This is a strength v. strength matchup that each side will have wins, but the winner will likely help win the war. The good news is Nigel Bradham will be available Sunday. The bad news: KGH is done for the year and Derek Barnett is unlikely to play. Losing Barnett hurts the defensive line but they are deeper there than they are at LB. Nate Gerry is certainly a player, just not a good one. TJ Edwards is everyone’s favorite good player that’s actually bad. Bradham alone makes a big difference, but guys around him need to step up in a big way. The defensive line needs to control the line of scrimmage and keep Dallas out of favorable looks. This is a team that has proven they’ll turtle up in less than advantageous situations; they cannot make it easy for them. Last time, Zeke had his way on the Eagles. That can’t happen this week. There are already more favorable matchups for Dallas to exploit on the backend for the defensive line to get run over or fail to pressure Dak.
Special thanks to MikeTysonChicken and abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.
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I Wrote The Playoff Gambling Manifesto For 2020

Edit: Just saw the article in The Outline about this sub. As I worked on this for the better part of an hour, I'm gonna leave it up.
It's been nearly two years since the last Gambling Manifesto was posted to And while I hope Bill is enjoying retirement, I am enough of a degenerate gambler and pop culture consumer that I feel able to make a copy of a copy of Bill's classic work. Even more importantly, I'm a person who misses Bill's writing so much, that I decided to be the Vladimir Lenin to Bill's Karl Marx and take someone else's well-thought-out-but controversial manifesto, run with it and ultimately end up creating something that will horrify much of Western civilization.
So please enjoy the 2020 edition of the Gamblers Manifesto version 5.0, written by me, u/IReviewFakeAlbums
RULE NO. 1: Beware the "Looked a Little Too Good the Previous Round" team
Both favorites on the NFC Wildcard side of the bracket are unlikely to fall into this category. The lines for both games feel a little low. I realize that Doug Pederson is still the coach of the Eagles, but when you are starting Corey Coleman and Sammie Coates in a playoff game, you should be a bigger home dog than 2 points. Neither Coleman nor Coates are starting for the Eagles, but the fact that you probably didn’t double-check that lie says all you need to know about the Eagles’ current WR corps. Should the Eagles keep the magic alive against the Seahawks (they won’t), they would be an automatic “Looked a Little Too Good” team.
As for the Saints, I fully anticipate they will come out looking to right so many postseason wrongs this season. And it begins with a revenge game against the team on the winning side of the Minneapolis Miracle. The Saints will be so sick of hearing “DIGGS! SIDELINE! TOUCHDOWN!” that they will do everything in their power to make people forget that ever happened. Even still, the Saints could still win this game 31-13 and that would fall in line with my expectations. Therefore, they wouldn’t look “too good.”
Nothing about Houston or Buffalo looked good in Week 17. I am willing to wager that Josh Allen and Devin Singletary, while great against middling-to-bad squads, won’t be able to keep up with Houston, despite Bill O’Brien’s best effort. The Bills went 1-4 this year against playoff teams, with two losses coming to inter-divisional rival New England and making The Bills this years Good Bad Team. While both contests with the Pats were competitive, their failure to win either ultimately swung the division (and a first-round bye) to the Patriots. Houston, meanwhile, rested many of their starters in preparation for this opening-round game. Bill O’Brien will never be confused for Bill Belichick, and his postseason record reflects as much, at 1-3. Outside a 2-touchdown win by either team, there is really no way anyone leaves Houston looking a little too good.
That leaves us with Tennessee and New England. Either of these teams could easily be the “Looked A Little Too Good” Team. The Patriots are limping into the playoffs. After starting 8-0 against one of the easiest schedules in living memory, the Pats finished the season 4-4, with two wins and three losses coming against playoff teams (Eagles and Bills for the wins, Chiefs, Ravens and Texans for the losses). However, their other two wins were an ugly victory against the erratic Cowboys and a tanking Bengals. One of the losses isn’t bad as it came at the hands of the Super Bowl favorite Baltimore Ravens. However… the final game of the season, with a first-round by on the line, the Pats were playing at home against a Dolphins team who were a 16-point dog with nothing to play for... And the Pats promptly pooed all over themselves. We might easily look back on the 2019 season and say with certainty that it was the time that Brady fell off the map, but it was masked by a hot start. This game is a perfect opportunity to throw everyone off the current Brady scent. Cover the spread against a hot Tennessee team and the Pats will definitely move the line a point or 1.5 against the Ravens. It might even drop the line against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to single digits. But it won’t be enough. Stay away from whichever team comes out of Foxboro, no matter what.

RULE No. 2: Don't bet against God, puppies or gambling theories from Pakistan.
Tim Tebow has been out of the league since 2015. Kurt Warner doesn’t want his sons to play football. Nick Foles has been banished to The Bad Place with the Jacksonville Jaguars. No obvious teams to avoid, except perhaps, based solely on their name, the Saints.

RULE NO. 3: Don't try to talk yourself into a "Nobody Believes In Us" team
I originally had a whole section typed up for this, but that was before the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles were LEFT OUT OF ALL OF THE NFL’S PROMOTIONAL PLAYOFF MATERIAL. When even your own league forgets about you, then you can claim the “Nobody Believes In Us” mantle. However, the Eagles are part of my section on why they can’t be the “Nobody Believes In Us” team, so I will keep that in (see below) and award the title of “Nobody Believes In Us Team” solely to the Minnesota Vikings with Philly as an honorary mention.
This is a rule that is part science, part art. So I will do my best to quantify some sub-rules that should be considered for this rule.
  1. If you have 12 wins or more, people automatically believe in you. That rules out Baltimore, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco, Kansas City and New England
  2. If you’ve played in a Super Bowl in the last three years, people will remember those wins and therefore believe in you. That rules out New England (again) and Philadelphia
  3. If your quarterback has won an MVP in the last decade, your team is never really out of it and therefore, people believe in you. That rules out the Patriots (again again), The Packers and Chiefs (again).
Despite playing against each other in the Super Bowl only two years ago, the most likely “Nobody Believes In Us” teams this year are the Eagles and Patriots. This is also insane considering these two teams account for four of the last five Super Bowl titles. A crazier stat, 8 of the last 10 Super Bowl champions and 4 of the last 10 runners-up are playing in the postseason. But with New England clearly struggling and the Eagles players forming lines to get into the medical tent, these are the two teams most likely to have nobody believe in them. You too should not believe in them.
RULE NO. 4: Beware of any team that might use a major off-field distraction as a galvanizing force leading up to a big playoff game.
The Patriots could have qualified for this had the Antonio Brown story broke around Thanksgiving, but we’re now 3 months and 14 games since Mr. Big Chest left New England. By NFL standards, all the playoff teams are relatively tame. Either players are wising up and not behaving quite as badly, or players are wising up and are getting better at hiding their naughty behavior. Either way, no real team really falls into this camp.
RULE NO. 5: Beware of the “Everybody Believes In Us” team.
Lamar Jackson will undoubtedly win MVP. Anything else would be a travesty. But unfortunately, with that comes the expectation that everyone believes in you. After starting the season 2-2, Baltimore ripped off 12 straight wins, with five coming against playoff teams. Needless to say, the Baltimore Ravens are above and beyond the “Everybody Believes In Us” team.
RULE NO. 6: Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe that it has a chance to win.
Miraculously, Seattle is only a 2-point favorite so the easiest choice for this rule is Philadelphia. I know that they also get some juice for being an also-ran in the Nobody Believes In Us team, but playing at home is an enormous advantage. And while it’s not the early game, west coast teams traveling East have struggled. I don’t believe strongly enough in the Eagles winning outright so I’d advise betting the Hawks.
RULE NO. 7: Beware of all dome teams playing outdoors, especially in cold weather.
I have no idea what this means, but 10 of the 12 playoff teams play outdoors. That’s 83% of teams in the playoffs that play outdoors, while 75% of NFL stadiums are outdoors. I’m guessing this is just statistical noise, but I already typed this out and did the research so I’ll leave it in. In this postseason, only the Saints and Vikings play indoors. And if the Saints win, they’ll be off to… oh… oh no…. Well let’s just not be surprised if the Packers waltz into the Conference Championship game after Drew Brees is frozen in carbonite like Han Solo at the end of The Empire Strikes Back (If Bill were still alive, he would hate that a Star Wars reference was being used in his manifesto). I have an update to this stat from the last manifesto, and can confirm: Dome teams are 4-25 in the playoffs when they’re outdoors and it’s 35 degrees or colder. Now, if Minnesota pulls off the upset, play in Santa Clara. This rule doesn’t apply nearly as much as the current temps are in the 60s. That’s like August for Minnesotans. Feel free to discard this rule for the first round at least.
RULE NO. 8: Beware of any and all aging QBs in cold weather unless they drink half their body weight in water every day, get 10 hours of sleep, master every conceivable pliability exercise, have lots of sex with a supermodel wife, don’t drink alcohol, don’t eat inflammatory foods, don’t smoke or do drugs, improbably become faster in their late 30s and basically behave like an alien.
I think Bill sometimes writes these rules specifically with his team in mind.
RULE NO. 9: Severely discount anything that happened in the first five to six weeks of the regular season.
This is where I remind you that the Pats started the season not only 6-0, but 8-0 and then I think Bill sometimes writes these rules unintentionally with his team in mind. I also should remind you that the Bills started the season at 4-1 with their only loss coming against the aforementioned Pats. Since then, they are 6-5 and have put up 20 points or fewer in 6 of those games.
Meanwhile, since back-to-back losses to the Texans and Colts - as well as a lucky come-from-behind win against the Lions in one of the weirdest three-week stretches any team had this season - the Chiefs have been ON FIRE. The defense has steadily improved and Mahomes has the offense firing on all cylinders. They’ve scored at least 23 points since week 6.
RULE NO. 10: When in doubt, gravitate toward one pick that (a) would screw over the most gamblers and experts, and (b) would definitely go against the single worst gambler you know.
I don’t have an Adam Carolla in my life but I do have a few friends who thought that Oklahoma was gonna cover against LSU. And they seem to be picking the Chiefs. I’m quickly discovering this whole manifesto is a way for me to talk out of both sides of my mouth. No idea why Bill gave it up, it’s a blast!
RULE NO. 11: Don’t ever talk yourself into a terrible QB, ever, for any reason.
This season isn’t a truly TERRIBLE QB that is in the playoffs. No, Kirk Cousins isn’t a world-beater like his predecessor Case Keenum (I can sense some eye twitching coming up from the Super Dome) but he’s probably the closest thing to a terrible QB this postseason. But compared to past years of Conner Cook, TJ Yates and Andy Dalton, Cousins is a shining star of competence and consistency.
It’s an incomplete proxy to NFL ability, but 9 of the starting QBs in this postseason finished the season in the top 15 in fantasy points-per-game. Only Cousins (18), Tom Brady (17) and Jimmy Garoppolo (22) fall outside that range. I see Cousins as simply one more of a reason to stay away from betting Minnesota than I see him as the one negative that is stopping me from picking them.
RULE NO. 12: Beware of any team that celebrated the previous weekend’s victory like it had just won the Super Bowl.
Five of this year's playoff teams have backed into the postseason. Seattle lost to San Francisco, Houston lost to Tennessee, and we already mentioned New England. This rule really applies to wildcard teams because teams in the top 2-3 seeds definitely have higher aspirations and aren’t just happy to be here. The Bills, Vikings and Texans all lost but had nothing to play for. They most certainly don’t feel like they just won the Super Bowl.
Philadelphia (who I’ve already warned you about) fit this category pretty well. They not only won their fourth straight, but did it against all interdivisional rivals. That’s a pretty great way to do it, right? Not only do you win, but even better, your enemies lose.
In that vein, there’s one other team I’d worry about falling victim to this rule. I would worry juuuust a little about the 49ers. They didn’t simply lock up a playoff spot, they beat their divisional rival to take the 1-seed. With time off the field, is it possible that the 49ers lose their edge? It is, but I don’t even buy this cold take.
RULE NO. 13: Before you wager on a team, make sure “Marty Schottenheimer, Herm Edwards, Wade Phillips, Norv Turner, Andy Reid, Dan Quinn, John Fox, Jason Garrett, Anyone Named Mike, Anyone Described As Andy Reid’s Pupil and Anyone With the Last Name Mora” isn’t its head coach.
Andy Reid, you old so-and-so! Bill’s article was written back in January of 2018. Over a year before the AFC Championship game where, with 2:03 left in the fourth quarter, the Kansas City Chiefs drove down the field, scored the go-ahead TD and we as a collective footballing body said in unison “Oh they’ve scored too early.”
You all remember what happened next. Brady ran ANOTHER 2-minute drill, scored the TD and reminded everyone why they love and hate Brady like they love and hate Walter White “HE CANT KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH IT!” we all screamed at our televisions after the touchdown. Yes the Chiefs tied it to send it to OT but Brady just re-did exactly what he did at the end of the 4th quarter and banished Andy Reid to another year of NFL Bridesmaidery.
Andy Reid has learned his lessons. That is something we’ve all been saying since 2004.
And while Mike Zimmer (EDIT: And Mike Vrabel) both meet the “Mike” portion of this rule, Zimmer is like the Kirk Cousins of coaches. Merely another factor to sit the Minnesota game out and not some unknown variable. You know you’ll be glad you stayed away from Minnesota when it’s 10 minutes left in the first half, the Saints are up 20-3 and Joe Buck says “Let’s see if Kirk Cousins has a little bit of Case Keenum’s secret stuff”. And you’ll smile at your television because you know he does not. As for Mike Vrabel, I think he can keep it close in New England, having spent so much time there. He could win and cover the spread.
RULE NO. 14: Before every playoff game, rate the coaches and quarterbacks from 1 to 10, add up their scores, then make sure you’re OK backing a team with said score.
I wanted to tweak this rule just slightly. Instead of doing an arbitrary 1-10 valuation, I wanted to rank the coaches and the QBs 1-12 and then total up their scores, with low number being an indicator of a better combo. This may not work well, because you could say Lamar Jackson and Pat Mahomes both deserve that 1-spot. Or maybe you’d say both Kirk Cousins and Josh Allen deserve the 12 spot. But look at me. I’m the Sports Guy Now. So let me experiment.
Here are the results:
  1. Lamar Jackson (1) John Harbaugh (3)
  2. Drew Brees (4) Sean Payton (2)
  3. Pat Mahomes (2) Andy Reid (5)
  4. Russell Wilson (3) Pete Carroll (6)
  5. Tom Brady (8) Bill Belichick (1)
  6. Jimmy Garoppolo (7) Kyle Shanahan (4)
  7. Aaron Rodgers (6) Matt LaFleur (9)
  8. Carson Wentz (9) Doug Pederson (7)
  9. Deshaun Watson (5) Bill O’Brien (12)
  10. Ryan Tannehill (10) Mike Vrabel (8)
  11. Josh Allen (11) Sean McDermott (11)
  12. Kirk Cousins (12) Mike Zimmer (10)
This was a surprisingly difficult exercise. A quarter of the coaches on the list are first-timers: Vrabel, Shanahan and LaFleur. These are all Known Unknowns. Who knows what Jimmy G and Shanahan in the postseason are capable of together. Same for Tannehill and Vrabel. For teams like the Packers, coaching doesn’t much matter. Aaron Rodgers is going to give you a boost no matter who's calling the plays. You want to believe the 1-seed is safe, but going through this manifesto, I’m feeling like going to end up staying away from the 49ers, except for one bet. Right now, a George Kittle MVP futures bet is sitting at +3,300. If the 49ers have any chance at a Super Bowl, they're going to be leaning on Gronk 2.0. Put $10 on it and enjoy your $330.
After the Known Unknowns, we have the Unknown Knowns. This is Pete Carroll, Doug Pederson, Sean McDermott and Mike Zimmer. All have had some level of success but all have left the postseason feeling disappointed. Pete Carroll is one Marshawn Lynch run away from a second Super Bowl. Doug Pederson is so much a wildcard that who knows who he is. Sean McDermott has one other playoff appearance so he’s not entirely known, especially with Josh Allen, but having watched the Bills play the last 4 weeks of the season like it's the playoffs, I feel like I know McDermott’s Bills. Mike Zimmer is a perpetual yo-yo vacillating between euphoria with a touch of good luck (DIGGS! SIDELINE! TOUCHDOWN) and sheer horror with a pound of bad luck (we’re only a few postseasons removed from when Blair Walsh missed a field goal from the 10-yard line! I know it’s unfair to criticize kickers. They have an outsized role in games and they are often the first target of ire for fans. They’re kinda like refs in that you know they’re there and an integral part of the game, but you hate how hugely important they are). Have these men learned past lessons? It’s unknown.
Lastly, we have our Known Knowns. Led by the leader of the Known Knowns, Bill Belichick, this group also includes Sean Payton, John Harbaugh, and for less jubilant reasons, Andy Reid and Bill O’Brien. It would not surprise me if any of these coaches won the whole thing (with one obvious exception). They are all at their peak, and that is a compliment (with one obvious exception) and all have QBs that fall into one of two lists: He is either so incredibly talented that he can win you the game single handedly or he was once so incredibly talented and has been around long enough that while he’s become slightly less talented, he’s far more intelligent than the opposing defense.
As for the QBs, there are some of the same issues. 8 of these QBs have some postseason experience. Wentz, Tannehill, Allen and Garoppolo have not played a postseason game before. So these four are easily Known Unknowns.
Our Unknown Knowns:
Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson & Kirk Cousins. All three have played in, and lost, one playoff game in their careers. While we think we know Lamar after his MVP 2019 season, anyone who watched the Divisional Round game last year against the Chargers will know that NOBODY was putting big bucks down on a Lamar-for-MVP futures bet. This will be Cousins first postseason game since 2015 when he played for the Washington Professional Football Franchise. I’ve already discussed his known quantities, but he is such a high-variance play, he’s still unknown in the postseason. Watson has shown since college that he can win, but what does Bill O’Brien have hidden up his sleeve?
The Known Knowns:
Pat Mahomes is what Lamar and Deshaun will be next year at this time. He’s already had his incredible playoff run that was turned sour by an inferior Pats team (it’s the fate that awaits all who challenge Vader and the Emper- sorry, Brady and Belichick). Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers round out the Known Knowns. To paraphrase the late Dennis Green: THEY ARE WHO WE [Think] THEY [are]! Each has the pedigree and tenure to lead their teams to a title and each (aside from Brady) can benefit their legacy greatly by winning one more ring, or in Mahomes’s case, a first ring.
RULE NO. 15: Don’t try to be a hero, just try to win money.
This article is getting long and has given me a new appreciation for the sheer volume of content that Simmons put out. In honor of that, I am taking his passage from the 2018 manifesto and simply updating the names for 2020. Back then, he wrote:
Take it from the guy who talked himself into Miami’s backup QB in Pittsburgh last January. My case included tidbits like “Could Adam Gase put himself on the map as this year’s Hot New Coach?” and “Could [Matt] Moore manage the game, avoid turnovers and make a couple of big throws?” before I ultimately and hilariously decided, “I’m grabbing the 10 points even if it violates about four different Playoff Manifesto rules.” The Dolphins lost 30-12. Don’t be a hero.
So I will just say:
Take it from the guy who talked himself into CHICAGO’S STARTING QB in CHICAGO last January. My case included tidbits like “Could MATT NAGY put himself on the map as this year’s Hot New Coach?” and “Could MITCH TRUBISKY manage the game, avoid turnovers and make a couple of big throws?” before I ultimately and hilariously decided, “I’m LAYING the 6.5 points even if it violates about four different Playoff Manifesto rules.” The BEARS lost ON A DOUBLE DOINK. Don’t be a hero.
We're just living in parallel universes.
RULE NO. 16: Take one last look at the quarterbacks.
I’m OK taking any of the Known Knowns and Lamar. The rest? We just don’t know enough. See rule 15
RULE NO. 17: There’s plenty of time to bet against any QB or coach.
Whoever comes out of that AFC 4-5 matchup between Houston and Buffalo either has to go to an amped-up Baltimore or Kansas City in the dead of winter. Sit the wildcard game out and put whatever you would’ve bet on that game, put it on Lamar + John Harbaugh or Mahomes + Andy Reid in the Divisional round.
My picks for Round 1 …
(All picks losers or your money back)
(Home teams in CAPS.)
SAINTS (-8) over Vikings
New Orleans is going to do everything possible to have people forget about the 2018 Divisional Round game. And while that won’t happen, people might remember the 2009 matchup where the Saints came out on top and forced Brett Favre into retirement. Minnesota will need Dalvin Cook healthy. If he’s not ready, Stefon Diggs, Mike Boone and Alexander Mattison are basically the MadCatz GameCube controller version of Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Latavius Murray’s PS2 controller. As the game goes on and New Orleans puts up points by land and by air, the Vikings will be forced to make riskier and risker moves; which is NOT what this Vikings team was built on. As they do, the Saints secondary picks apart Cousins and Dalvin is pulled midway through the 4th. Saints win in a blowout 31-13 and it’s never close
Titans (+4.5) over PATRIOTS
Some day, Tom Brady will be done. He’s already looked done in the regular season. But Brady doesn’t care about the regular season. To him and the undying machine that is the New England Patriots, the postseason is the only time that matters. He will drag this Pats team kicking and screaming to one more victory. I can feel it in my bones. Pats win 24-20, and we take this as a sign of Brady’s mortality. Because good teams win, but great teams like Tennessee cover.
TEXANS (-2.5) over Bills
AKA The Shakeys Game. I have no idea what to think about this one. Both teams gave us nothing the final week of the season. In theory, there is lot of offensive firepower on the Houston side versus a stout Buffalo defense. And on the other side, a middling Buffalo offense against a so-so Houston defense. In the end, give me the team with Deshaun and Nuk over Josh Allen and John Brown and I’ll lay the points. Texans win, 23-16
Seahawks (-2.5) over EAGLES
This game will swing on one thing: Carson Wentz. He is the Three-Six Mafia of quartebacks: The Most Known Unknown. His wide receivers are actually unknown unknowns because we can’t be certain 1) he has any receivers and 2) that they’ve ever played professional football before this weekend. Yes Seattle is limping into the postseason (1-3 in their last 4), but with Marshawn back and a few more practices under his belt (and also, is it possible that Travis Homer is actually good? 62 rush yards and 30 receiving yards against SF is nothing to joke about) this team is ready to make a surprise run. But they can’t risk overlooking the Eagles, who they already played in Philadelphia and beat. I predict the Eagles will jump out to a hot start only to be let down by their anemic defense and near-dead wide receivers. Seahawks pull away late in the 4th and win 28-23.
If you’ve made it this far, I commend and appreciate you. I hope you enjoyed this iteration of the manifesto. If you do decide to take any of my stupid recommendations, In the words of Hill Street Blues (a show I only know about because of previous Gambling Manifestos), let’s be careful out there.

TL;DR: I miss Bill Simmons the writer. If you're gonna gamble, don't pick the Vikings with their sub-par (by playoff standards) QB. Don't pick the Saints to get much past round 2 when they have to go Green Bay in round 2. Everyone believes in the Ravens. Therefore, you shouldn't. The Eagles are too much of an unknown to be trusted. Andy Reid should never be trusted. The Pats will probably win it all, despite no one thinking they will.
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[Game Preview] Week 17 - Philadelphia Eagles(8-7) at New York Giants (4-11)

Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) at New York Giants(4-11)
While I think Godfather 3 is a terrible movie, I think a line from Al Pacino’s Michael Corleone sums up my feelings best with his line in the movie, “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!”. And much like that scene it may give me a heart attack in the end, but right now the Eagles control their own destiny. The only thing standing in their way is their division rival the 4-11 New York Giants. While the Eagles have won their last six meetings against their division rival, many of those games have come down to the final minutes and seconds, I think we can expect the same this week as the Eagles will be without Zach Ertz this week and Carson Wentz will once again be throwing to backups. He will get some help in the backfield with Jordan Howard returning to the lineup for the first time in a couple weeks giving the Eagles a true powerback to compliment Miles Sanders. Don’t be surprised to see the Eagles rely on the run this week to get the win against their division rival on the road. Go Birds!
General Information
Posting Rules and Guidelines
Remember to Join us on Discord during the game!
New to the Eagles? Take a look at our New Fan Page!
Sunday, December 29th, 2019
Game Time Game Location
4:25 PM - Eastern MetLife Stadium
3:25 PM - Central 1 MetLife Stadium Dr
2:25 AM - Mountain East Rutherford, NJ 07073
1:25 AM - Pacific Wikipedia - Map
Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 44°F
Feels Like: 42°F
Forecast: Mostly Cloudy. Partly cloudy throughout the day.
Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Cloud Coverage: 84%
Wind: South Southeast 3 MPH
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Philadelphia -4
OveUnder: 45
Record VS. Spread: Eagles 6-9, Giants 7-8
Where to Watch on TV
FOX will broadcast Sunday’s game to a regional audience. Thom Brennaman will handle play-by-play duties and Chris Speilman will provide analysis. Shannon Spake will report from the sidelines.
TV Map - Week 17 TV Coverage Map
Internet Streams
NFL Streams - Look here 30 minutes before the game for Streams
Radio Streams
Disclaimer: Subscription Based Official NFL Radio Streams available via TuneIn
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability 94.1 Desktop Streaming
Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (42nd season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA WIP-FM 94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA WCTO-FM 96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey WENJ-FM 97.3 FM
Levittown, PA WBCB-AM 1490 AM
Northumberland, PA WEGH-FM 107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA WPPA-AM 1360 AM
Reading, PA WEEU-AM 830 AM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA WEJL-FM 96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WEJL-AM 630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WBAX-AM 1240 AM
Williamsport, PA WBZD-FM 93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE WDEL-FM/AM 101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA WSOX-FM 96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo, Macu Berral and Gus Salazar will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA LA MEGA 105.7 FM
Allentown, PA WSAN 1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ WIBG 1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Giants Radio
Giants Radio Network Bob Papa (play-by-play), Carl Banks (analyst), Howard Cross (sidelines).
National Radio
Sports USA will broadcast the game to a national audience with Eli Gold on play-by-play and Doug Plank providing analysis.
Satellite Radio
Station Eagles Channel Giants Channel
Sirius Radio SIRI 138 (Internet 825) SIRI 83 (Internet 822)
XM Radio Internet 825 XM 226(Internet 822)
Sirius XM Radio SXM 381 (Internet 825) SXM 226 (Internet 822)
Eagles Social Media Giants Social Media
Website Website
Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
Instagram Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles Snapchat: newyorkgiants
NFC East Standings
NFC EAST Record PCT Home Road Div Conf PF PA Net Pts Streak
Eagles 8-7 .417 5-3 3-4 4-1 6-5 351 337 +14 3W
Cowboys 7-8 .462 4-3 3-5 4-1 6-5 387 305 +82 1L
Giants 4-11 .267 2-5 2-6 2-3 3-8 324 417 -93 2W
Redskins 3-12 .200 1-7 2-5 0-5 2-9 250 388 -38 3L
Series Information
Philadelphia Eagles lead series (87-86-2)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
October 15th, 1933 at the Polo Grounds in Upper Manhattan, New York, NY. New York Giants 56 - Philadelphia Eagles 0
Points Leader
The New York Giants lead the Philadelphia Eagles (3393-3351)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 6-1 vs. the New York Giants
Pat Shurmur: 0-4 vs. the Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs. Pat Shurmur: Pederson leads 3-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Giants: 5-1
Daniel Jones: Against Eagles: 0-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Daniel Jones: First Meeting between QBs
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead the Giants: 11-6
Record @ MetLife Stadium: Eagles lead the Giants: 6-2
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 11 - Giants No. 28
Eagles: 8-7
Giants: 4-11
Last 10 Meetings
Date Winner Loser Score
12/9/19 Eagles Giants 23-17
11/25/18 Eagles Giants 25-23
10/11/18 Eagles Giants 34-13
12/30/17 Eagles Giants 34-29
09/24/17 Eagles Giants 27-24
12/22/16 Eagles Giants 24-19
11/06/16 Giants Eagles 28-23
01/03/16 Eagles Giants 35-30
10/19/15 Eagles Giants 27-7
12/28/14 Eagles Giants 34-26
Injury Reports Depth Charts
Eagles Eagles
Giants Giants
2019 “Expert” Picks
Week 17 - "Expert" Picks
2019 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Giants Season Stats
2019 Stats (Starters/Leaders)
Wentz 365 567 64.4% 3750 26 7 93.4
Jones 256 412 62.1% 2726 23 11 88.9
Sanders 170 766 51.1 4.5 3
Barkley 200 911 75.5 4.6 5
Ertz(not playing) 88 916 61.1 10.4 6
Goedert 54 542 38.9 10.0 5
Slayton 44 690 53.1 15.7 8
Name Sacks Team Total
Graham 7.5 39
Golden 10.0 35
Name Total Solo Assist Sacks
Jenkins 72 55 17 2.5
Bethea 104 76 28 0
Name Ints Team Total
Darby/Gerry/McLeod 2 10
Jenkins(no longer on team) 4 10
Connelly 2 10
Johnston 64 2989 61 46.7 42.6 25 4 0
Dixon 63 2921 62 46.4 42.3 26 2 2
Elliot 24 20 83.3% 53 31/33
Rosas 16 11 68.8% 45 33/37
Kick Returns
Sanders 14 314 22.4 67 0
Latimer 20 472 23.6 50 0
Punt Returns
Scott 6 43 7.2 13 0 4
Jones 8 12.0 60.0 2
League Rankings 2019
Offense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Giants Stat Giants Rank
Total Offense 358.1 13th 334.6 23rd
Rush Offense 121.2 12th 104.2 20th
Pass Offense 236.9 12th 230.4 19th
Points Per Game 23.4 15th 21.6 19th
3rd-Down Offense 46.7% 2nd 37.8% 18th
4th-Down Offense 31.8% 28th 44.4% 19th(t)
Red Zone Offense (TD%) 66.0% 4th(t) 60% 11th
Defense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Giants Stat Giants Rank
Total Defense 327.3 9th 375.8 24th
Rush Defense 88.0 3rd 112.7 19th
Pass Defense 239.3 17th 263.1 26th
Points Per Game 22.5 16th 27.8 29th
3rd-Down Defense 34.4% 4th 40.8% 21st
4th-Down Defense 64.3% 30th 58.3% 24th(t)
Red Zone Defense (TD%) 58.5% 19th 56.0% 12th
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Giants Stat Giants Rank
Turnover Diff. -5 21st(t) -15 30th
Penalty Per Game 6.2 7h 5.7 3rd
Penalty Yards Per Game 52.1 8th 49.1 5th
Giants HC Pat Shurmur previously worked for the Eagles in two stints from 1999-2008 as the OL/TE coach and QB coach and again as the the OC/interim HC from 2013-2015.
Giants LB Coach Bill McGovern previously worked for the Eagles from 2013-2015 as the outside linebacker coach.
Giants FS Sean Chandler was born in Camden and played at Temple.
Eagles OL coach Jeff Stoutland (New York, NY) and S Malcolm Jenkins (Piscataway, NJ) are from the New York/New Jersey region
Giants DL Coach Gary Emmanuel was born in Philadelphia, PA.
Eagles RB Miles Sanders and Giants RB Saquan Barkley both played RB together at PSU with Sanders backing up Barkely.
Giants WR Golden Tate played half a season with the Eagles in 2018 after being traded by the Lions.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles Giants
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lavato (Starter)
Referee: Alex Kemp
Philadelphia has won each of its last 6 regular season games against the Giants.
Since 2000, Philadelphia has produced a 26-13 regular-season record vs. NYG, which marks the highest winning percentage (.667) by an NFC East team against the Giants in that span
The Eagles are ranked 2nd in the NFL in time of possession (32:53).
Draft Picks
Eagles Giants
OT Andre Dillard QB Daniel Jones
RB Miles Sanders DT Dexter Lawrenece
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside CB Deandre Baker
WR Shareff Miller LB Oshane Ximines
QB Clayton Thorson CB Julian Love
LB Ryan Connelly
WR Darius Slayton
LB Cory Ballentine
OT George Asafo-Adjei
DT Chris Slayton
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles Giants
WR Desean Jackson SS Antoine Bethea
DT Malik Jackson FS Jabrill Peppers
DE Vinny Curry G Kevin Zeitler
DT Hassan Ridgeway OT Mike Remmers
QB Josh McCown LB Keion Adams
TE Isaiah Searight
LB David Mayo
DE Chris Peace
LB Deone Bucannon
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles Giants
QB “Big Dick” Nick Foles WR Odell Beckham Jr.
DE Michael Bennett S Landon Collins
DE Chris Long DE Olivier Vernon
S Chris Maragos LB Nate Stupar
RB Jay Ajayi RB Jonathan Stewart
RB Josh Adams G Jamon Brown
RB Wendell Smallwood DE Mario Edwards Jr.
DT Haloti Ngata DE Kevin Wynn
DE Josh Mauro
CB B.W Webb
LB BJ Goodson
Eagles QB Carson Wentz needs 4 passing TDs for 100 career passing TDs.
Eagles QB Carson Wentz needs 250 yards to become the first Eagles QB to throw for 4000 yards in a season.
Eagles QB Carson Wentz needs 167 yards to break Donovan McNabb’s record for most passing yards in a season by an Eagle.
Eagles QB Carson Wentz needs 82 yards for a new career high in passing yards in a season.
Eagles QB Carson Wentz needs 15 completions to break his Eagles record for most completions in a season.
Eagles S Malcolm Jenkins's (4) needs 1 more Interception for a TD to tie CB Eric Allen (5) for most Interceptions for a TD by an Eagles player.
Eagles DE Brandon Graham (50) needs 1 sack to move up to 5th on the Eagles all-time sack list passing DE Greg Brown.
Giants RB Saquon Barkley need 89 yards for 1000 yards on the season.
Stats to Know
Deep Passing
On the season, these two teams have been rather unimpressive in the deep passing game, although there should be a distinction made between Manning and Jones at the helm for the Giants. In his 4 games this season, Eli has actually been near tops in the league of deep passing % (8th, at 13.6%), 5th in Adjusted Completion % (50%)—which accounts for drops—but 18th in Passer Rating at 89.6, which is to say that the fault has largely been on the receivers. Meanwhile, Jones falls at 26th in Deep Passing % (10.2%) 26th in Adjusted Completion % (35.7%), and 23rd in Passer Rating on Deep Balls (77.1). For the Eagles, Wentz comes in at 20th in Deep Passing % (12.0%), 12th in Adjusted Completion % (44.1%), and 26th in Passer Rating on Deep Balls (71.9), where the disparity between AC% and Passer Rating would indicate receiver fault, as well.
Matchups to Watch
Daniel Jones vs the Eagles Pass Rush
Last time these two teams faced off it was Eli Manning at the helm due to Jone’s ankle injury, but Jones returned last week to lead the Giants to a victory over the Redskins. The final game of his rookie season will be his first introduction to Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham whom have been a thorn in the side of Eli Manning since each have entered the league. Manning has responded by getting the ball out quickly and frequently checking the ball out to safety valves. It will be interesting to see what Jones does in his first game against the Eagles. Jones holds the ball a full .2 of a second longer than Manning on average and the 11th longest in the league tied with Josh Allen who the Eagles terrorized and sacked 4 times in their meeting earlier this season. If the Eagles pass rush starts getting to Jones early it could be a long day for the rookie especially if he starts turning the ball over.
The Giants secondary vs the Eagles Passing attack
The Eagles will again be out their top 3 wide receivers again as Jeffrey and Jackson are on the IR and Nelson Agholor has been ruled out again. This week Wentz will also be without his top target Zach Ertz who has been ruled out with a chest injury. Wentz was able to carry the team last week against another division rival in the Cowboys throwing for 319 yards and a TD passing to backup TE Dallas Goedert who was Wentz’s top target with 91 yards. Look for Wentz to lean on Goedert again along with Greg Ward who has been become a favorite and reliable target for Wentz since being brought up from the Practice Squad. The Giants have the 26th ranked passing defense and Wentz was able to pick them apart 3 weeks ago when he threw for 325 yards and 2 TDs in a similar situation with backups. He should be able to have a similar performance this week especially if he can get some help with the return of power back Jordan Howard, to help keep the Giants pass rush honest.
Jim Schwartz vs himself
Last week the Eagles defense was superb in shutting down Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Schwartz went away from many of his tendencies. Rather than leaving his corners in cover-1 the entire game he mixed up coverages and utilized some stunts on the DL along with some well timed blitzes to keep Prescott uncomfortable. If Schwartz can employ a similar game plan against Jones it should lead to a win for the Eagles. However, time and time again after putting up a good game plan one week Schwartz slips back into his affinity for Cover-1 and hoping his DL can line up and beat their guys. If Schwartz falls back to this like he did in many of the losses this season Jones may end up with season highs in yards just like Fitzpatrick did this season for Miami where he picked apart Schwartz’s Cover-1 scheme. Let’s hope that is not the case and he and put the Eagles defensive players in the best position to make plays and win the game.
Special thanksabenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.
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Week 15 Matchup Strategy Guide - Part 3 (DFAroto)

Part 3 of 3

Part 1 Right Here:

Part 2 Right Here:


DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6.5)

Jaguars ATS: 5-8-0 Raiders ATS: 6-7-0
Projected Team Totals: Jaguars 19.5 Raiders 26


Opp (OAK) Pass DVOA: #31
Opp (OAK) Run DVOA: #27
Opp (OAK) Weighted DEF: #31
Injuries to Watch DEF (OAK): LB Marquel Lee (Q) LB Kyle Wilber (Q) CB Daryl Worley (Q) S Erik Harris (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (JAX): WR DJ Chark (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): D.J. Chark (20%) Leonard Fournette (19%) Dede Westbrook (17%) Chris Conley (14%) Seth DeValve (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Leonard Fournette (77%, 18, 6) Ryquell Armstead (23%, 2, 2)

QB/WTE Breakdown

The Jags got blasted at home against the Chargers last week, and Gardner Minshew (2QB stream) did little to instill confidence that he is an upgrade over Nick Foles. While last week was a struggle, Minshew gets an extremely vulnerable Raiders secondary this time around. Oakland has the 31st ranked pass defense by DVOA, and has given up the 2nd most FPPG to QBs on the season. While it would be unwise to trust the rookie signal caller in a 1QB league, he makes for a possible streamer in 2QB or superflex leagues, and should be considered a mid-range QB2 with some upside in Sunday’s matchup. The loss of one of his top weapons does downgrade his outlook slightly, however..
DJ Chark has been ruled out for Week 15 with an ankle injury, leaving the Jags without their most explosive offensive playmaker. That should provide Dede Westbrook (upgrade) with an opportunity to see a high volume of targets against this leaky Raiders secondary. Oakland has allowed the 13th most FPPG to WRs, but their 31st ranked pass DVOA portrays a team that is quite vulnerable through the air. Chris Conley (upgrade) should also see a bump in usage, but he has been extremely boom or bust this season, and is reliant on big plays. Consider Westbrook a borderline WR2 under the circumstances, while Conley can be viewed as risk-reward WR3/4, just know his floor is extremely low. Keelan Cole will step into 3-WR sets with Chark on the sidelines, but he isn’t a realistic fantasy option at this point. None of the Jags TEs have been able to stand out after dealing with so many injuries, but Nick O’Leary did snag a TD last week. O’Leary is a hail mary TE2, although he does have a favorable matchup against a defense ceding the 4th most FPPG to TEs.
RB Breakdown
The running game didn’t have any more success than the passing game against the Chargers, as Leonard Fournette (auto-start) was held to 63 total scoreless yards. The Raiders are less vulnerable to the run than the pass, but have given up the 9th most FPPG to RBs, so Fournette remains a volume based RB1. He’s especially valuable in PPR leagues, as he is consistently among the RB target leaders each week. Ryquell Armstead (stash) is the clear handcuff to Fournette, so roster him if you want to have insurance through the playoffs.


Opp (JAX) Pass DVOA: #21
Opp (JAX) Run DVOA: #31
Opp (JAX) Weighted DEF: #29
Injuries to Watch DEF (JAX): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (OAK): WR Hunter Renfrow (OUT) OT Trent Brown (Q) RB Josh Jacobs (Q, expected to play) WR Marcell Ateman (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Tyrell Williams vs. A.J. Bouye (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Darren Waller (19%) Hunter Renfrow (18%) Tyrell Williams (14%) Jalen Richard (11%) Zay Jones (10%) DeAndre Washington (8%) Josh Jacobs (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: DeAndre Washington (63%, 20, 7) Jalen Richard (38%, 9, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
A nightmare second half of the season continued for the Raiders last week in a blowout loss to the Titans, but Derek Carr (2QB only) was able to finish with a serviceable final fantasy line. Carr has gone over 21 points just once this season, so his ceiling is not something to get excited about. The Jags have given up the 11th most FPPG to QBs, so Carr has a reasonable floor, but can’t be viewed as anything more than a mid-range QB2. Leave him on the wire in most leagues.
A battle with plantar fasciitis might help to explain Tyrell Williams’ (drop) extreme dropoff over the second half of the season, but it appears the wideout will continue playing through the pain this week against the Jags. He hasn’t been a worthwhile starting option in quite some time, and the Jags surrender the 13th fewest FPPG to WRs, so consider him a TD or bust WR4, and keep him on your benches outside extremely deep leagues. Darren Waller (volume upgrade) is the real WR1 on this team, and his high weekly target floor makes him an attractive TE option at a position that is so heavily TD-dependent. The Jags have given up the 11th fewest FPPG to TEs, but Waller is too involved to be anything less than a top-6 TE1. Get him fired up this week to ensure you get a stable floor from that spot on your roster. No other Raiders pass catcher has emerged as fantasy relevant, so Waller is likely the only player that should be near a starting lineup this week.
RB Breakdown
Stud rookie RB Josh Jacobs (upgrade if healthy) was unable to play through his shoulder injury last week, leading to a workhorse level role for DeAndre Washington (stash). Jacobs currently plans to play on Sunday, so owners should put Washington on benches, and continue to leave Jalen Richard on the waiver wire. The Jags are an exploitable matchup on the ground - 4th most FPPG to RBs - so if Jacobs is active he needs to be in all lineups as a solid RB2. Washington should remain rostered as a solid handcuff.
Score Prediction: Raiders 21, Jaguars 20

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Browns ATS: 5-7-1 Cardinals ATS: 7-5-1
Projected Team Totals: Browns 25.5 Cardinals 23


Opp (ARI) Pass DVOA: #29
Opp (ARI) Run DVOA: #13
Opp (ARI) Weighted DEF: #26
Injuries to Watch DEF (ARI): CB Kevin Peterson (Q) LB Joe Walker (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CLE): C JC Tretter (Q) OT Chris Hubbard (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Odell Beckham vs. Patrick Peterson (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Jarvis Landry (30%) Odell Beckham (23%) Kareem Hunt (17%) Antonio Callaway (12%) David Njoku (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Nick Chubb (70%, 16, 1) Kareem Hunt (62%, 11, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Cleveland won the battle of Ohio last week, it wasn’t pretty, and it wasn’t without drama. Baker Mayfield (upgrade) was inconsistent yet again, throwing for only 192 scoreless yards, with two interceptions. He’s sandwiched two serviceable fantasy outings with three that weren’t over the last five, so a bounce back seems likely. Arizona has proven time and again they can’t guard anyone, ranking 29th in Pass DVOA and 26th in Weighted Defense - ceding 24.5 FPPG to QBs, and 25.4 to WRs. Mayfield becomes an appealing matchup based QB1 this week, consider him a top-10 option.
The Cleveland passing game has been a wasteland all season, with Jarvis Landry (upgrade PPR) being the only solid fantasy asset. Odell Beckham is having the worst season of his career, and is reportedly playing through a sports hernia. His expected shadow matchup with CB Patrick Peterson isn’t imposing, as Peterson has struggled against No. 1 WRs (Rotoworld). A viable fantasy day isn’t out of the question, yet OBJ is far from trustworthy at this point in the season, especially since we know now he’s been playing through injury. That being said, Arizona cedes explosive pass plays (20+yards) at a 12% clip, 3rd worst in the NFL (sharpfootballstats). Consider him a boom-or-bust WR2 in the great on-paper matchup. Landry on the other hand, has vacuumed up at least seven targets in every game over the last five weeks, clearing 10 targets in three out of five. He’s seeing monster usage, and there’s no reason to expect it to slow down. He’s a borderline WR1, and needs to be in all lineups. David Njoku returned last week, splitting time with fellow tight ends Stephen Carlson, and Ricky Seals-Jones. This is a smash spot for the position - ARI hemorrhages 13.1 FPPG to TEs, league worst - but with Njoku popping up on the injury report again with a knee issue, plus the timeshare at tight end, there really isn’t a viable fantasy play here.
RB Breakdown
Like many other backfields in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns are now utilizing a committee, to the dismay of Nick Chubb (upgrade standard) owners everywhere. Fortunately, both Chubb and Kareem Hunt (upgrade PPR) are seeing solid touch counts, and having both on the field at the same time has become a regular occurrence since Hunt became available. Arizona possesses a much better Run DVOA than Pass DVOA, but game-script and scoring opportunities should work in favor of the Cleveland backfield. Arizona plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the NFL, so there should be plenty of opportunities to go around. Consider Chubb an RB1, and Hunt a borderline RB2 play in PPR settings - ARI cedes 19.5 FPPG to the position.


Opp (CLE) Pass DVOA: #13
Opp (CLE) Run DVOA: #25
Opp (CLE) Weighted DEF: #19
Injuries to Watch DEF (CLE): DE Olivier Vernon (OUT) CB Eric Murray (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ARI): WR Andy Isabella (Q) OL Justin Pugh (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Christian Kirk (24%) Larry Fitzgerald (19%) Kenyan Drake (16%) Pharoh Cooper (11%) KeeSean Johnson (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Kenyan Drake (65%, 14, 3) David Johnson (37%, 5, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Cardinals season has taken a downward plunge in recent weeks, and Kyler Murray and company have only managed to score 24 combined points in back-to-back matchups (Rotoworld). Murray has made some downright silly mistakes, and while some of it can be chalked up to being a rookie, some mistakes shouldn’t be seen at the NFL level. His O-line isn’t doing him any favors either, he’s the most-sacked QB of 2019 ( At home against Cleveland is the easiest matchup he’s seen in recent weeks, but it’s no cakewalk - Cleveland has a sturdy secondary, ranking in the top-half for Pass DVOA - and cedes just 18.2 FPPG to QBs and 20.6 to WRs. Still, Murray has demonstrated a high-floor through multiple tough matchups, and warrants every week QB1 consideration. Just be aware that although he always has boom potential, this week projects more as a floor performance.
Although he’s done little since his Week 10 explosion, Christian Kirk’s (upgrade volume) 8.8 targets per game rank 13th among wideouts this season (Rotoworld). Again, the matchup doesn’t scream boom week, but Cleveland has been inconsistent at best this season, and Kirk’s volume should keep him in the WR3 ranks. Larry Fitzgerald, after turning back the clock in the beginning of the season, has bottomed out over the second half. He shouldn’t be considered anything more than a low-end WR4, so look elsewhere. The auxiliary passing options shouldn't be considered for Arizona.
RB Breakdown
Like the Cleveland backfield, the Arizona backfield is devolving into a two man RBBC. Unlike Cleveland, it’s not bearing fruit in the way of fantasy points for either running back. Kenyan Drake has ceded snaps to David Johnson since the bye week, and at this point neither can be fully trusted. Drake is the preferred option, and the matchup is good on paper, but due to DJ’s involvement, he’s no more than a back-end RB2. DJ is a big-balls dart throw; it can’t be recommended. CLE cedes 18.6 FPPG to RBs.
Score Prediction: Browns 24, Cardinals 21

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)

Falcons ATS: 5-8-0 49ers ATS: 8-4-1
Projected Team Totals: Falcons 18.75 49ers 29.25


Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #2
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #9
Opp (SF) Weighted DEF: #2
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): DE Dee Ford (OUT) DT DJ Jones (OUT) CB Richard Sherman (OUT) S Jaquiski Tartt (OUT) DT Jullian Taylor (OUT) CB K’Waun Williams (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ATL): OG James Carpenter (OUT) OT Ty Sambrailo (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Julio Jones (22%) Calvin Ridley (20%) Russell Gage (16%) Austin Hooper (16%) Devonta Freeman (11%) Christian Blake (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Devonta Freeman (67%, 21, 4) Brian Hill (19%, 9, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Atlanta’s second half resurgence continued against a rudderless Carolina team last week. Matt Ryan (downgrade) has returned to form of late, posting back-to-back solid fantasy performances. His ankle injury may have been the reason for the mid-season stumble, but either way, against a ferocious 49ers defense and without offensive weapon Calvin Ridley (OUT-IR), just isn’t the time to chase points. While the argument can be made that the San Francisco defense is banged up, they still possess most of the pass rushers that have carried them this season. Atlanta has struggled to keep Ryan upright, he’s been sacked the 5th most in the NFL (teamrankings). He’s no more than a back-end QB2 in a tough matchup - SF gives up just 15 FPPG to QBs and 17.9 to WRs.
Ridley’s injury vacated 20% of the target share to Atlanta’s pass catchers, and Russell Gage is the best bet to assume his snaps and some of his target share. Yet, he still projects as a distant third option to Julio Jones (upgrade volume) and Austin Hooper (upgrade volume). The remaining receivers split snaps evenly last week, and aren’t realistic options in the tough draw. Julio should be peppered with targets san Ridley, and should be treated as an every-week WR1 regardless of matchup. Same goes for Hooper, both should be active in most lineups.
RB Breakdown
Since returning from injury, Devonta Freeman (upgrade volume) has accumulated 20+ touches in two of three games. As long as he’s operating as the clear lead back and receiving the bulk of the touches, he’ll continue to be a floor-play RB2. The matchup is imposing - SF cedes just 12.2 FPPG to RBs - but Freeman’s volume should stabilize his floor, just don’t expect a big day.


Opp (ATL) Pass DVOA: #26
Opp (ATL) Run DVOA: #16
Opp (ATL) Weighted DEF: #23
Injuries to Watch DEF (ATL): DE Allen Bailey (OUT) CB Isaiah Oliver (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): George Kittle (23%) Deebo Samuel (20%) Emmanuel Sanders (17%) Kendrick Bourne (12%) Ross Dwelley (12%) Tevin Coleman (8%) Raheem Mostert (5%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Raheem Mostert (60%, 12, 2) Matt Breida (18%, 7, 1) Tevin Coleman (16%, 3, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The 49ers won the game of the year last week, in an exciting shootout on the road against the New Orleans Saints, 48-46. Jimmy Garoppolo (upgrade) showed critics a side of him many thought he didn’t possess, by not just managing the game, but gun slinging his way to victory when facing a deficit. He may be more than an elite game manager, rolling up 349-yards passing, with four touchdowns and an interception. On tap is an exploitable secondary that has been dissected by opposing signal callers routinely - ATL cedes 22.1 FPPG to QBs and 24.3 to WRs - Jimmy G is a very attractive QB1 streaming option in the plus matchup.
The addition of Emmanuel Sanders (upgrade) and Deebo Samuel, with the emergence of Kendrick Bourne, has created an explosive receiving corps for the 49ers. The three have settled in as the fulltime wideouts, clearing up what used to be a mess of a rotation. Sanders and Samuel are both solid fantasy plays against an Atlanta team that boasts a true pass funnel; ranking much higher in Run DVOA than Pass DVOA. Adding to that, CB Desmond Trufant has been placed on IR, creating an even softer matchup. The concern is volume. Positive game-script early could erase the need for passing, so hopefully the injuries to San Francisco’s defense allow Atlanta to stay in the game. Consider Sanders a WR2, and Samuel an upside WR3. Kendrick Bourne is a no more than a DFS dart throw. George Kittle is an every week top-3 option at tight end. Fire him up - ATL cedes 7.5 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
Two camps exist when it comes to the 49ers backfield. There are those that think Raheem Mostert has completed a hostile takeover, and is now the lead back. And there are those that think a Kyle Shanahan offense takes the hot hand approach, and that Matt Breida or Tevin Coleman could be next in-line to have the big week. Kyle Shanahan has stated that Mostert has “earned” his role as the lead ball-carrier, but we’ve seen that talk before from coaches, just look at Ronald Jones. Either way, Mostert has earned every-week RB2 consideration, but be warned, this backfield can change in an instant. Breida and Coleman are much riskier propositions, and can’t be started as more than desperation dart throws. They’ll likely still be involved in some capacity, but it’s not worth betting on.
Score Prediction: 49ers 30, Falcons 17

LA Rams (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Rams ATS: 9-4-0 Cowboys ATS: 7-6-0
Projected Team Totals: Rams 25.25 Cowboys 23.75


Opp (DAL) Pass DVOA: #24
Opp (DAL) Run DVOA: #19
Opp (DAL) Weighted DEF: #21
Injuries to Watch DEF (DAL): LB Leighton Vander Esch (OUT) LB Sean Lee (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAR): TE Gerald Everett (OUT) OT Rob Havenstein (D)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Robert Woods (30%) Tyler Higbee (19%) Cooper Kupp (16%) Gerald Everett (15%) Josh Reynolds (10%) Todd Gurley (9%) Brandin Cooks (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Todd Gurley (80%, 27, 4) Malcolm Brown (20%, 5, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
After his first blow-up week in a long time, Jared Goff (streamer) returned to his mediocre 2019 levels in Week 14’s win over Seattle, at least in terms of fantasy points. The positive is that the Rams offense suddenly looks at least partially back to its old ways, scoring 28 and 34 points the last two weeks, albeit against questionable defenses. This week, Goff will take aim at the Cowboys - 24th ranked pass DVOA but allowing the 13th fewest FPPG to QBs. Dallas got lit up by Mitchell Trubisky last week, and are on a downward trend overall, so this actually sets up as a favorable matchup for Goff. Consider him on the QB1/2 borderline, and ride him if you are thin at QB as he should be able to produce a point total that lands somewhere in between his last two performances.
What started as a year for the record books has turned into a disappointment in a hurry for Cooper Kupp (start). Despite the Rams being without their top TE Gerald Everett (out again this week) the past few weeks, Kupp hasn’t gone over 70-receiving yards since Week 8. He snagged a TD last week to salvage his day, and could be on the verge of a breakout day with the Rams offense starting to hum again. The Cowboys have given up the 8th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this isn’t an ideal matchup, but Kupp should still be viewed on the WR2/3 borderline and be in most lineups this week. The only consistent producer over the last month at WR for the Rams has been Robert Woods (auto-start). Woods has gone over 90-yards in 4 straight games he’s played in, and looks to be Goff’s #1 target at this point in the season. Consider him a borderline WR1 this week. Brandin Cooks (volume downgrade) just hasn’t seen much volume since returning from his multi-week concussion absence, and played about a third of the offensive snaps last week. He can break a big play at any time, but his role is too tough to trust as more than a WR3/4 at this point. If you have the depth, Cooks should likely be on your bench as only a part-time player in a difficult matchup. With Everett out again this week, Tyler Higbee (volume upgrade) will resume his role as the clear pass-catching TE for the Rams. He’s won a lot of matchups for owners the past two weeks, and should continue to thrive as long as Everett is sidelined. The Cowboys have given up the 10th most FPPG to TEs, so there’s no reason to view Higbee as less than an elite TE1 this week.
RB Breakdown
Perhaps part of the reason that the Rams have looked re-energized the last two weeks is the commitment to the run game with Todd Gurley (volume upgrade). The offensive line and entire team are getting healthier, and Gurley is getting the volume necessary for an RB1 valuation. The Cowboys have given up the 16th fewest FPPG to RBs and have the 19th ranked rush defense by DVOA, so the matchup is basically a wash. Consider Gurley on the RB1/2 borderline, and get him locked into your lineup for a game the Rams absolutely have to win to remain in the playoff race. Malcolm Brown makes for a worthwhile handcuff.


Opp (LAR) Pass DVOA: #9
Opp (LAR) Run DVOA: #3
Opp (LAR) Weighted DEF: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAR): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (DAL): None
Key WCB matchups: Amari Cooper vs. Jalen Ramsey (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Gallup (20%) Amari Cooper (19%) Randall Cobb (15%) Jason Witten (15%) Ezekiel Elliott (10%) Blake Jarwin (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Ezekiel Elliott (99%, 21, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
While the Cowboys have been a huge disappointment overall, they remain firmly in the playoff race due to the antiquated NFL seeding rules, and their QB Dak Prescott (auto-start) has shown he is deserving of a huge contract extension. The Rams have given up the 12th fewest FPPG to QBs, and have the 9th ranked pass DVOA, but Prescott will be needed for a big day if Dallas is to get a win at home. Their solid projected point total, and Dak’s consistent presence as a top-5 QB in fantasy, means that Prescott should be a fixture in fantasy lineups in the second week of fantasy playoffs. He’s a solid QB1.
Amari Cooper (slight downgrade) may not like the term “garbage time”, but it’s hard to argue that’s not the scenario in which he caught his TD pass and salvaged his day against the Bears. Regardless, Cooper was able to produce despite looking less than 100%, and isn’t on the injury report this week. However, he’s likely to face Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage this week, which is a concern considering just how good Ramsey has been since landing in LA. Cooper has been more effective against shadow coverage this year than in previous years, and his role in the offense combined with his individual talent make him tough to bench. View him as a high-end WR2 that is capable of breaking Ramsey’s coverage, but could also finish with a disappointing 2-30-0 type of day as well. Michael Gallup (upgrade) has been relatively productive over the last month, and he could benefit from Ramsey’s focus on Cooper. The Rams overall cede the 15th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this is a spot for Gallup to potentially come through for owners. Consider him a mid-range WR2 with upside this week in a game the Boys will likely need to throw heavily to win. Randall Cobb has benefitted from the high volume of passing in the Cowboys rough last five games, but will likely see a lot of highly-graded CB Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot (PFF). Consider Cobb a low-end WR3 whose ceiling isn’t extremely high, but whose floor makes for a useful asset in deeper leagues. Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin have rendered each other relatively unstartable this season, and both should be viewed as low-volume TE2s. Neither is worth starting this week against a Rams squad giving up the 7th fewest FPPG to TEs.
RB Breakdown
The Cowboys were without Tony Pollard last week, but that didn’t serve to change their game plan much as Ezekiel Elliott (auto-start) has been a workhorse all year long. Pollard is expected to return on Sunday, but Zeke will get his 20+ touches again this week regardless. The Rams are stout on the ground - 3rd best DVOA and 10th fewest FPPG to RBs- but Zeke is an easy RB1 due to his volume and talent. Get him locked into your lineup, and keep Pollard rostered as a feel-good insurance policy.
Score Prediction: Rams 21, Cowboys 17

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at LA Chargers

Vikings ATS: 7-6-0 Chargers ATS: 4-7-3
Projected Team Totals: Vikings 24 Chargers 21.5


Opp (LAC) Pass DVOA: #20
Opp (LAC) Run DVOA: #23
Opp (LAC) Weighted DEF: #18
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAC): LB Uchenna Nwosu (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN): RB Alexander Mattison (Q) WR Bisi Johnson (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Stefon Diggs vs. Casey Hayward (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Stefon Diggs (20%) Dalvin Cook (15%) Kyle Rudolph (13%) Irv Smith (13%) Bisi Johnson (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Dalvin Cook (47%, 20, 2) Alexander Mattison (37%, 16, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Last week was a game that fantasy owners always fear; the home favorite Vikings so outmatched the injury riddled Lions that none of the offensive weapons were needed for a big day to capture the win. Kirk Cousins (low-end QB1) was solid as a game manager, but finished with only 242 yards and 1 TD. This week he’ll likely be in a more competitive game with the Chargers, who have given up the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs. While this should lead to higher volume for Kirk, the matchup concern is a legitimate reason to consider keeping him on the bench. Getting Adam Thielen back from injury should help to establish his floor, but his ceiling isn’t as high considering the Chargers are not often involved in shootouts. Owners can view Cousins as a low-end QB1, and throw him in lineups if they don’t have a safer and higher upside option.
Cousins will have stud receiver Adam Thielen (downgrade) back on the field this week, and that means owners will have a tough decision to make with their lineups. Stefon Diggs (start) is likely to see Casey Hayward in shadow coverage this week, which would leave Thielen with more positive matchups, but Diggs is easier to trust given his body of work throughout the year. The Chargers have given up the 3rd fewest FPPG to WRs this year, giving both receivers a slight downgrade in outlook. Consider Thielen a WR3, and Diggs a WR2. Both have a solid case to be in starting lineups this week, but Diggs is the slightly preferred play. Kyle Rudolph (downgrade) gets a tough potential individual matchup with stud safety Derwin James, and needs to be pushed just outside the TE1 ranks this week. The Chargers have given up the 9th fewest FPPG to TEs, and Rudolph is quite TD-dependent, so consider your options before plugging him in. Irv Smith simply isn’t seeing the volume to be trusted at this point, so he should be viewed as a low-end TE2 in a tough matchup.
RB Breakdown
Fantasy superstar Dalvin Cook (auto-start, upgrade) was subject to the same issue as Cousins, as he saw an uncharacteristic 47% snap share, but still was able to save his line with a few nice runs and a short TD plunge. This week sets up much better for Cook, as the game should be competitive throughout, and the Chargers are more vulnerable to the run than the pass. They’ve given up the 13th most FPPG to RBs and have a bottom-third run DVOA, so get Cook fired up as an elite RB1 once again. Keep Alexander Mattison (stash) rostered as a top-3 handcuff, even if he ends up being ruled out. If Cook were to suffer a setback or pick up a minor injury, Mattison would be an elite RB1 for the fantasy finals assuming he’s healthy.


Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA: #11
Opp (MIN) Run DVOA: #7
Opp (MIN) Weighted DEF: #9
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN): S Jayron Kearse (OUT) CB Xavier Rhodes (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAC): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Keenan Allen (23%) Hunter Henry (20%) Austin Ekeler (17%) Mike Williams (13%) Melvin Gordon (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Austin Ekeler (49%, 12, 5) Melvin Gordon (46%, 17, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Chargers came a bit out of nowhere last week to drop 45 points in their win over the Jags. Philip Rivers (slight downgrade) eclipsed 25 points for the first time this season, and was dealing all game long. He’ll face a stiffer matchup from the Vikings - Minnesota cedes the 11th fewest FPPG to QBs and has the 11th ranked pass DVOA. Consider Rivers a mid-range QB2; his ceiling isn’t extremely high but his weapons should establish his floor as a solid asset in 2QB or superflex leagues.
Still not producing at levels owner are accustomed to, Keenan Allen (start) has at least returned solid value over his past 4 games with good yardage and 2 total TDs. Mike Williams (downgrade PPR) FINALLY scored his first TD of the year, after getting 10 last year, and continues to make impressive contested chunk catches week in and week out. The Vikings have given up the 8th most FPPG to WRs, and Xavier Rhodes is no longer a shutdown shadow corner, so both WRs are worth starting consideration. Consider Allen a WR2, with upside in PPR leagues, and view Williams as a WR3 with an upgrade in standard leagues. The Vikings pass rush is impressive, and the Chargers O-line has struggled to keep Rivers upright against top defensive lines, so having the time to throw downfield might make Allen more productive than Williams this week. Hunter Henry (start) found the end zone last week, and despite some low yardage totals the last month remains a solid TE1 this week. The Vikings have allowed the 14th most FPPG to TEs, so this isn’t a shy-away matchup by any means. Get Henry active unless you have a top-3 alternative, as he might benefit from additional short throws due to Rivers needing to get the ball out quick.
RB Breakdown
Perhaps the most important player to the Chargers this year has been the explosive and dynamic all around back, Austin Ekeler (auto-start). He put up a career-high 213 scrimmage yards in the win last week, which was buoyed by an impressive 84 yard catch and run TD. Melvin Gordon (PPR downgrade) got in on the action by rolling up 84 total yards and a TD, and should continue to handle a slight majority of the carries. Ekeler’s role is slightly more valuable, however, as his looks in the passing game often give him room to make plays in the open field, and give him a higher floor in PPR leagues. Consider Ekeler on the RB1/2 borderline, especially in PPR formats, and Gordon can be viewed as a solid RB2. Both should be in lineups this week, despite the Vikings giving up the 6th fewest FPPG to RBs, but Ekeler is a bit safer as he doesn’t require rushing lanes up the middle or goal-line opportunities to be able to rack up the points.
Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Chargers 16

Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)

Colts ATS: 6-5-2 Saints ATS: 8-5-0
Projected Team Totals: Colts 18.75 Saints 27.25


Opp (NO) Pass DVOA: #10
Opp (NO) Run DVOA: #10
Opp (NO) Weighted DEF: #7
Injuries to Watch DEF (NO) Friday Report: LB Kiko Alonso (DNP) S Vonn Bell (DNP) CB Patrick Robinson (DNP) DE Cameron Jordan (LP) LB AJ Klein (LP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (IND) Friday Report: WR TY Hilton (LP) OL Le’Raven Clark (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): T.Y. Hilton (24%) Zach Pascal (20%) Jack Doyle (15%) Parris Campbell (15%) Nyheim Hines (12%) Deon Cain (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Nyheim Hines (56%, 8, 5) Marlon Mack (41%, 13, 0) Jordan Wilkins (14%, 1, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
This season has gone south fast for the Colts, dropping five of their last six games, and Jacoby Brissett (downgrade) has been much less effective in the second half of the season. He was able to take advantage of the Buccaneers ridiculously bad secondary last week in a close loss, but will face a stiffer challenge this week. The Saints give up the 10th most FPPG to QBs, but have the 10th best pass DVOA, and Brissett may be without his top WR again this week. Consider him a low-upside QB2, and don’t look his way unless desperate in a 2QB or superflex league.
TY Hilton (injury downgrade) is currently listed as a game time decision for MNF, making him a risky starting proposition due to the fact that most of the alternative options in your lineup will have already played by the time we get final clarity on his status. Unless there is a report stating definitively he will suit up, it’s best to avoid him this week. If you own Zach Pascal (start only if Hilton sits), you could also use him as a pivot option in case Hilton is ruled out before kickoff. If that’s the case, it would leave Pascal in position to soak up another high target total. He’s been extremely productive the past two weeks, and the Saints give up the 3rd most FPPG to WRs, so if he’s the #1 option this week he should be in your lineup. However, it’s hard to bank on this as Hilton likely won’t be declared active or inactive until just before kickoff, so it’s tough to bench more established studs for him during Sunday’s games. Consider Pascal a borderline WR2 if Hilton sits, but he’s no more than a boom-bust WR3/4 if Hilton plays. It’s likely best to avoid this situation entirely if you can, and either player could potentially see Marcus Lattimore in shadow coverage if the Saints decide to go that route as well. With Eric Ebron out for the year, Jack Doyle (upgrade) has shown flashes, but put up a 2-27 dud last week. Brissett likes throwing to his TEs, and Doyle is a great red-zone threat, so with the scarcity of quality options at the position Doyle is a mid-range TE1. The Saints are middle of the pack against TEs, so get him in your lineups this week unless you have a higher floor elite option.
RB Breakdown
Another tough draw is on deck for Marlon Mack (volume upgrade). He played 41% of snaps in his return from injury, receiving only 13 touches. Still, he looked healthy, and was clearly the lead back. The Colts will likely increase his workload moving forward, and he should see closer to 20 touches this week, game-script permitting. New Orleans has only ceded 14.2 FPPG to the position, but Mack’s projected volume keep him in the RB2 ranks. Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins are merely afterthoughts in this offense with the return of the Mack, and both can be safely dropped.


Opp (IND) Pass DVOA: #14
Opp (IND) Run DVOA: #20
Opp (IND) Weighted DEF: #15
Injuries to Watch DEF (IND) Friday Report: CB Kenny Moore (DNP) CB Pierre Desir (LP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NO) Friday Report: OT Terron Armstead (LP) OL Will Clapp (LP) OG Andrus Peat (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Thomas (30%) Alvin Kamara (22%) Jared Cook (15%) Ted Ginn (10%) Tre’Quan Smith (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Alvin Kamara (76%, 17, 6) Latavius Murray (33%, 9, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Lamar Jackson broke Michael Vick’s single-season rushing record for a quarterback on Thursday Night Football this week, so it would be fitting for Primetime Drew Brees (upgrade) to break the all-time passing touchdown record on Monday Night Football in the same week. Brees is sitting at 537 career touchdown passes, just two shy of Peyton Manning. However, Tom Brady is at 536, so it’s possible that going into MNF, Brees will be chasing both Manning and Brady ( Indianapolis has been fading of late, Jameis Winston just posted 456-yards and four touchdowns against a usually solid secondary. Monday feels like it’ll be a special moment for Brees, he’s a top-5 QB option, fire him up.
Michael Thomas (upgrade) is also chasing greatness, going after Marvin Harrison’s single-season reception record of 143. Thomas is just twenty-three catches shy with three weeks left to go ( Indy’s zone defense should provide plenty of underneath windows for the stud wideout, he’s an every-week elite WR1. The other wideouts are riskier: neither Ted Ginn or Tre’Quan Smith can be relied upon, and should be treated as boom-or-bust dart throws. Jared Cook has emerged as the No. 3 passing option since Brees returned from injury, vacuuming up a 15% target share in the last six weeks. He’s expected to suit up Monday, after a concussion knocked him out of last week's barn burner. He’s an every week TE1 - IND cedes 7.3 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
It was extremely disappointing to watch the Saints roll up yards and points in the shootout last week, while Alvin Kamara (upgrade) busted on 17 touches. Latavius Murray was given fewer snaps and touches than Kamara, but was able to parlay his limited opportunity into a successful fantasy outing. Unfortunately, that’s just fantasy football sometimes; a plethora of variables exist and many cannot be predicted. Kamara owners that managed to survive the opening round of playoffs, despite his unfortunate bust week, need to renew their faith for this one. Indy cedes just 14.4 FPPG to RBs - but they are bottom-12 in Run DVOA. Additionally, we may be back to a reality in which the Saints score 30 a week in The Big Easy. I’m not betting against the positive game-script the home matchup should provide; Lat “Pulldown” Murray can be considered a viable, albeit slightly unpredictable, flex option as well.
Score Prediction: Saints 35, Colts 20
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NFL Week 6 Picks (2019)  Expert Football Betting Predictions  ATS, O/U & Pick’em  DFS Injury Info Raymond Report NFL Sports Betting Show #6 - 2020 Carolina Panthers Betting Preview Week 8 NFL NJ Sports Betting Odds NFL Betting Advice: Week 1, 2018 - Against the Spread (ATS), Picks, Over/Under Point Spread Betting Explained: Sports Betting 101

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NFL Week 6 Picks (2019) Expert Football Betting Predictions ATS, O/U & Pick’em DFS Injury Info

Learn how to bet ATS, or against the spread, with this informative breakdown. These Sports Betting 101 videos are meant to help you learn and start winning today. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 8,729 views 33:41 NBA Picks (1-23-20) Pro Basketball Expert Predictions & Daily Betting Lines Vegas Odds Analysis - Duration: 11:41. Johnny C. explains how he got started in sports handicapping, and how he has been so successful at NFL Picks and College Football Picks against the spread for over 30 Years. 2018 NFL Football Sports Betting Handicapping System, Strategy & Model - Duration: ... What is the "Spread" in Sports Betting - Duration: 2:24. Kev's Picks 122,528 views. 2:24. Language: ... Today on the Raymond Report NFL Sports Betting Podcast Show #6, in this segment, Sports Handicapper Ron Raymond and Ross Benjamin break down and preview the 2020 NFL Carolina Panthers from a ...