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[D] CSGO Newbie Investing Guide (2019)


This is the first iteration of a new Newbie Guide to Investing in CSGO, covering most basic issues. Some subjects are in the work and will be added at a later date.

Before we start, THIS is a fantastic overview of CSGO Market History (until April 2019) and a must-have, including timeframes for regular and operation drops, many important events and lots of useful info, made by steamfrag

Which items can be invested in?


Introductionary Note: Discontinued consumables (cases, stickers and basically all containers) are better items for long term investment than non-consumables, since consumables get deleted from the market when used, thus reducing their quantity over time, unlike skins which are only deleted if a user gets banned or if the skins are used in trade-up contracts. Specific skins/knives/gloves could be profitable to invest and to hold long term, if you know exactly what you are doing. But generally skins are better suited for frequent trading and not long term investing, or if you want skins to play with and more or less hold their value with some potential to go up in price. As an example, Here is a video from TDM HeyJesus from last year explaining what I mean. If you are more interested in trading with others, nice knives and gloves, etc. and not mid/long term investing, visit /GlobalOffensiveTrade


List of all CSGO Cases in Chronological Order:

Case Name Release Date Rare or Active Drop
CSGO Weapon Case 14. August 2013 Confirmed Rare
eSports 2013 Case 14. August 2013 Confirmed Rare
Operation Bravo Case 19. September 2013 Confirmed Rare
CSGO Weapon Case 2 08. November 2013 Confirmed Rare
eSports 2013 Winter Case 18. December 2013 Confirmed Rare
Winter Offensive Weapon Case 18. December 2013 Confirmed Rare
CSGO Weapon Case 3 12. February 2014 Confirmed Rare
Operation Phoenix Weapon Case 20. February 2014 Confirmed Rare
Huntsman Weapon Case 01. May 2014 Confirmed Rare
Operation Breakout Weapon Case 01. July 2014 Confirmed Rare
eSports 2014 Summer Case 10. July 2014 Confirmed Rare
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case 11. November 2014 Confirmed Rare
Chroma Case 08. January 2015 Confirmed Rare
Chroma 2 Case 15. April 2015 Confirmed Rare
Falchion Case 26. May 2015 Confirmed Rare
Shadow Case 17. September 2015 Confirmed Rare
Revolver Case 08. December 2015 Confirmed Rare
Operation Wildfire Case 17. February 2016 Confirmed Rare
Chroma 3 Case 20. April 2016 Confirmed Rare
Gamma Case 15. June 2016 Confirmed Rare
Gamma 2 Case 18. August 2016 Confirmed Rare
Glove Case 28. November 2016 Confirmed Rare
Spectrum Case 15. March 2017 Confirmed Rare
Operation Hydra Case 23. May 2017 Confirmed Rare
Spectrum 2 Case 14. September 2017 Active
Clutch Case 15. February 2018 Active
Horizon Case 02. August 2018 Possibly Rare (needs more data)
Danger Zone Case 06. December 2018 Active
Prisma Case 13. March 2019 Active
CS20 Case 18. October 2019 Active
Shattered Web Case 19. November 2019 Active









  1. The Cache Collection
  2. The Chop Shop Collection
  3. The Cobblestone Collection
  4. The Gods and Monsters Collection
  5. The Overpass Collection
  6. The Rising Sun Collection



  1. The Assault Collection
  2. The Aztec Collection
  3. The Baggage Collection
  4. The Dust Collection
  5. The Inferno Collection (The Old One)
  6. The Militia Collection
  7. The Mirage Collection
  8. The Nuke Collection (The Old One)
  9. The Office Collection
  10. The Vertigo Collection


  1. The 2018 Inferno Collection
  2. The 2018 Nuke Collection
  3. The Bank Collection
  4. The Dust 2 Collection
  5. The Italy Collection
  6. The Lake Collection
  7. The Safehouse Collection
  8. The Train Collection






  1. M4A4 Howl (removed due to copyright violation) - The only Contraband item in CSGO
  2. Dual Berettas Retribution (removed due to artist ban)
  3. P90 Desert Warfare (removed due to artist ban)
  4. CZ75-Auto Poison Dart (removed due to artist ban)
  5. MAC-10 Curse (removed due to artist ban)
  6. USP-S Orion (removed due to artist ban)
Note: Some skins were banned from a case, but can be traded up to with trade-up contracts


  1. Sticker Howling Dawn (removed due to copyright violation)
  2. Sticker King on the Field (removed due to artist ban)
  3. Sticker Winged Defuser (removed due to artist ban)
  4. Sticker Harp of War (Holo) (removed due to artist ban)



Other ways to profit on the market than long/mid term investing












FAQ


How many items can I hold in my inventory?
Officially, 1000. You can list excess items on the steam market (for high unrealistic prices) and basically use the steam market as extra space. Note that the price of your listed items on market + your steam wallet cannot exceed $2000 at any given time. You can increase the number of items in your inventory and the amount of steam wallet money through some tricks. It is however recommanded that instead you simply make extra accounts and prepare them for usage as extra space and as storage accounts, if you need more space.

How much is the Tax/Fee on Steam Community Market?
Approx. 13%-15% total for most.
Here is one in Euro by donbernie and Here is one for items under $1 by HwanZike
Yes, if you want to make Gaben really happy, sell for 3 cents and give him 2

What are some real-money marketplaces for CSGO items?
Use all external sites at your own risk

I've personally used skinbaron and skinbay and had no problems so far. There are others out there like cs deals. Update (Oct 2019): I used Bitskins before they changed ownership in Oct. 2019. I am waiting to see who the new owners are (still unknown) and how the site develops, before using them again.
Also note that the most popular one, OPSkins was BANNED by Valve in 2018. Do not use OPSkins if you want to cash out from or cash in to Steam anymore. Their so called VGO Skins aren't actual CSGO skins, even though they look similar. Update (Oct. 2019): OPSkins apparently made a comeback with a P2P system without using Bots. Proceed with caution, because Valve basically sent them a cease and desist letter in the past letting them know that they aren't allowed to be associated with CSGO and use any intellectual property of Valve on their websites at all anymore.

What is the most efficient way to cash out?
Sell the items directly at Bitskins, Skinbaron or another trustworthy site. Depending on the items, this can take a while. As an alternative you can exchange your investments into liquid items (popular skins for frequently used weapons, certain knives, case keys, sticker keys, nametags etc. - spend some time to determine which item gives you the best rate) and sell those liquid items on external cashout sites. The latter method will increase the speed at which you get money but will lose you a larger percentage. Keep in mind that BitSkins/Skinbaron take a percentage (5% to 15%), Paypal takes a percentage (~2%), and that the item values on external sites (real money value) are always lower than in the Steam Community Market. Also, every transaction on the Steam Community Market takes away 15% already. Occasionally the items on external sites are so cheap compared to SCM that it becomes worth it to sell them on SCM instead, buy keys from the in-game store, and then sell those keys on external sites again. When selling on SCM it almost always is correct to sell with an order that's higher than the highest buy order and higher than the lowest sell order if the lowest sell order is lower than recent trends display.

What is the most efficient way to buy in?
Buy items (not necessarily CSGO only) from trustworthy external cashout sites or from highly reputable sellers with high cash rep if they offer a better deal (you can find some on /GlobalOffensiveTrade) and sell the items on the Steam Community Market. Spend some time to determine which item gives you the best discount compared to Steam Market Price. Be aware that some items such as souvenir skins, certain Stattrak knives, etc. might have a very high discount, but are very very hard to resell back on steam market, avoid these items and stick to popular items. There is a reason why they have such a high discount. Also be aware that some items might be manipulated on steam market, thus showing a very high discount on 3rd party sites when compared, avoid these items and check their market history to be sure. http://csgo.steamanalyst.com/hotdeals is one of the tools that can help you with good deals, or the deals section at BitSkins. The general rule is also the cheaper the items, the higher the possible discount. For instance you could buy very cheap stickers for sometimes 50% off, and resell on steam market. But the downside is that it takes a lot of time and effort than a single expensive item, but gives you more steam wallet money at the end. Make sure that after steam tax, you always get more money than if you deposit the money directly to Steam, otherwise this whole process becomes completely pointless.

What are the case opening odds?

Normal StatTrak
Knives and Gloves 0.26% 0.026%
Covert 0.64% 0.064%
Classified 3.20% 0.32%
Restricted 15.98% 1.598%
Mil-Spec 79.92% 7.992%

Why did item X increase/decrease in price?
Possible reasons: CS:GO updates/balance changes/game changes/market changes (e.g., Tradeup Contract), new cases/operations (both short-term, due to opening frenzies, and long-term, due to increased supplies of skins), a famous streameyoutuber hypes an item, someone tries to manipulate the market, a AAA game is released, a tournament is taking place (CS:GO, DOta 2 etc.), a Steam-sale like Summer sale is going on, a market-bug is ongoing, the ingame drop rate was increased/decreased, legal issues about things related to the CSGO market (e.g., betting/gambling), etc.

If I create a new Steam account, how do I transfer items to that account? How long does this take?
Create a new account, log in (via the thick client), set up your profile, enable Steam Guard, wait 15 days, and transfer the items to the account from your main (double check that it is your account). If you intend to use the thin client (e.g., via Chrome), make sure that you log in from there as well because Steam will impose a 7 day trade restriction on your account when you attempt to create a new transaction from a new device (a device meaning a new browser). Also, if you do not have mobile authentication enabled on the alt account, there will be a 3 day delay for trades. You can use the same phone number & email address for many Steam accounts. Also, Gmail forwards emails addressed to your account even if dots (.) are added in between the username characters of your email address.

If I create a new Steam account, how do I use the Community Market? How long does this take?
Same steps as above, but you need to purchase a game that costs at least $5 or deposit $5 into your Steam wallet (and wait a month) before being able to use the Community Market. Keep in mind that using a new payment method will trigger a weeklong community market cooldown on your account.

After buying a CSGO item from the Steam Community Market, how long do I have to wait until I can sell/trade it?
They are sellable immediately on the Market. You need to wait 7 days until you can trade them to another account. Note that items from some other games, have the 7 days cool down both for trading AND steam market (like Rust).

How do buy orders work?
When you place a buy order, the market first looks for all the cheapest items that can fulfill your order. Then the oldest listing (i.e. the seller who has waited the longest) is selected and purchased. If the items are listed in multiple currencies, the amounts are first converted into your currency before being selected (i.e. a 0.03 RUB listing has no priority over a 0.03 USD listing). If multiple buy orders satisfy a new market listing, the oldest matching buy order will be selected. It used to be different in the past, but was changed in 2017.

How do I create multiple listings at once on Steam Market?
You could use one the addons listed in the "useful sites and tools" section of this guide down below. The current most secure way (since no external extensions are used) is a solution suggested by u/soldture . Simply copy this link: https://steamcommunity.com/market/multisell?appid=730&contextid=2&items[]=Falchion%20Case
Change Falchion%20Case to your desired item name. This solution only works with commodity items. This also works with other games (you have to change the appid and replace it with the appid of that game, for instance Rust is 440.

Item X hyped and is going to moon. Should I Buy?
Usually parabolic moves are followed by a crash (not always but most of the time). It is almost never a good idea to buy when something is mooning because of a video, some news, manipulation, mass hysteria and hype or whatever else. Buy the rumour, sell the news.

Item X is crashing hard. The Market is crashing. I am shaking and panicking. Should I Sell?
Stay calm, take a deep breath and find out what is really going on and what you really think about it. As an example: there was a huge panic when gambling sites were being banned. Many people panicked and sold their items for ridiculously low prices. People were telling eachother that the skin market will crash and never recover if there is no gambling and the world is going to end. And here we are in 2019, and almost everything (including skins) is at its all time high. However, sometimes you just need to sell fast. Let's say you have a skin from a collection which was inactive for a long time, making the prices of the skins go very high, and then suddenly the collection became active again for whatever reason. Or Gaben officially tells us that he is going to do something crazy with the market which will inevitably crash everything. In that case yes, sell fast (just an example)

Useful sites and tools

Use all external sites, tools and addons at your own risk, some are risky to use, some old and not updated


Chrome addons:

Useful Youtube Channels





Credits
Helicobacter: FAQ 2.0 (huge shoutout, copied a lot of stuff from this FAQ, sometimes word by word)
Steamfrag: Very useful graphs and market data

Disclaimer: The information offered here is not financial advice. We, the mod team, are just a bunch of gamers and hobby investors. Do your own due dilligence before investing any real money in to a game and do it at your own risk! Use all external links, sites, tools, addons, etc. at your own risk! Any information in this thread may be outdated at any given time. You should be mentally prepared to lose everything invested in virtual items. Valve could change the rules affecting the market anytime. Third party cashout and trading sites and their BOTS could be banned anytime. External events such as successful lawsuits against Valve, new state laws, new country laws, etc. could also affect the market anytime by forcing Valve to take measures (for instance case opening is now restricted in Belgium and Netherlands, OPSkins got banned, Gambling sites were banned, etc.). Also note that all of your items legally belong to Valve, even if you paid for them.


Suggestions and potential corrections to this guide are always welcomed and will be added if necessary and approved by the mod team. I will try to keep this guide updated.

Last updated: Nov. 2019
submitted by HostileHero to csgomarketforum [link] [comments]

FAQ 2.0

Q: What should I invest in?

A: tl:dr: Perhaps some discontinued containers/stickers. This thread lists a lot of interesting plots and on this thread you can check out which items were available on which timeframes. Case investing: Buy cases & sticker capsules when they are at 3c/4c. They can't get any cheaper and once they stop dropping they might rise in price (Be aware of the volume on the market - cases with close to a million currently on the market will take a long time to rise in price.) Popularity of the skins in the cases has an influence. i.e. Vanguard cases are still cheap and will rise in price slowly as the skins aren't as desirable, despite the supply stopping. Huntsman cases are much more desirable and quickly rose in price once they stopped dropping. Sticker Capsules were great investments as once a sticker was used on a skin, it was gone from the market for good. Gun Skins from cases only leave the market if a user is banned or the skin is used during the Trade-Up Contract. Supply for stickers should always drop (note: as of the 2016-06-15 patch, they are most likely rare drops). Some cases are more rare and therefore cost more, for example operation Bravo cases. If you know what you're doing, it is sometimes profitable to buy cases at prices higher than 3-4c.
Sticker Investing: You could buy stickers when you get a sticker offer then sell on market. Check the prices and be aware of the market tax. You might net a few extra cents pretty quickly but you're really not getting much profit here. Buy up on stickers when the capsules have stopped dropping / they are no longer offered as common deals - My guess is the capsules themselves would be better investments and I don't think there's really any way to know if a sticker is no longer offered as deals other than their recent trending. Stickers, are very similar to passes, they are most commonly a long term investment. Team stickers have always gone on sale at the end of valve sponsored tournaments.
Tournament Sticker Investing: Buy stickers at a low price (during the sale towards the end of a tournament is best) and sit on them. You can either sell shortly after the tournament for a quick profit, or wait 6 months+ for a possibly larger profit. As more tournaments are being held and more stickers are released, it is difficult for most stickers to distinguish themselves among the huge mass of other stickers. Only hold on to stickers that you think will appreciate. If you're lucky a team will be banned or split or become successful in the future which is likely to drive up the price of their stickers (see ibuypower). The amount of profit from these stickers depends on how nice they look and how popular they are (if they are too popular, they can be a liability because of overabundance). Katowice stickers look great, Dreamhack not so much, 2014 cologne even less so. This comment and this comment might clarify some Tournament Sticker questions.
Skin Investing: Trickier than the other two and more risk involved. I wouldn't really recommend as it's unlikely to be more profitable unless you really know what you're doing. If a skin goes contraband, for whatever reason, the price will shoot up. Buy early when this happens and you should see profit if you wait. Don't expect it to really happen again. Valve will likely not let any copyright infringing skins through after the Howl. Skins from a case that has stopped dropping or from a collection from an operation that has stopped will rise. How much so will depend on their desirability. This will be a slow process. (example: M4A1-S Guardian). Valve, with the Vanguard Operation, reintroduced some rare skins into the game, such as skins from the Cobblestone collection, Overpass collection, Cache collection and Dust collection which drastically reduced the value of the majority of skins involved. Gun Skins from cases only leave the market if a user is banned or the skin is used during the Trade-Up Contract.
Knife Investing: More or less don't. Knives are fickle things to trend. Maybe you find a knife with a nice pattern going cheap due to an oblivious seller. But it won't be easy to get rid of. As with the skins knives from cases that are no longer dropping should rise in price, knives from current cases (i.e. Falchion) will drop in price until the case stops dropping.
Operation Pass Investing: These are the things that you redeem in order to get access to an operation. After the operation, all it does is give you access to the coin (which some players like to collect). All passes so far have gone on sale at the end of their operation. You can buy passes then sell after the operation has finished. If you want to do this, buy during the sale and wait 4-6 months. You should see profit, but I personally wouldn't bother. Vanguard sold well as it didn't reach as low a discount as people were expecting and wasn't on sale long, so not many were bought. Furthermore, Valve stopped selling the Vanguard Pass before the operation ended, which caused players who wanted to complete the missions to buy it from the market.
Souvenir Case Investing: Research the different cases and their skins. Cases like the Cobblestone case is the most desirable due to the Dragon Lore. During the tournament the supply will be at it's height so buy early and wait. Profit will continue to climb but might be a slow process depending on the case you have and the volume that were dropped.
Gift Package Investing: In the Winter months Valve sells gift packages for $1. If you open a Gift Package on a server, it will award a random player a random regular skin drop. In any given 2 hour period, those five players that open the most Gift Packages are displayed on a leader-board in the beginning of every game of every Valve NA CSGO server. This has been exploited for advertising. In 2013, people didn't anticipate that the Gift Packages are limited to the Winter months and in the following year, CSGO exploded in popularity. This multiplied the price of CSGO Gift Packages until they were sold again in 2014. In 2014, many people expected the same thing to happen, so the supply of Gift Packages increased. CSGO exploded again, but this time the price of gift packages increased much more because gambling sites started to boom and they competed for advertising. It is possible that in 2015, many people and gambling sites will buy many more gift packages than previously, and that the relative growth of CSGO will decrease. Valve announced that they will pull the advertising feature of the gift packages during early 2016.
Tournament pin investing: Coming soon
CSGO game key investing: Coming soon

Q: What items have been (in some cases, virtually) discontinued?

A: Here's what you can only get from the marketplace/trading and absolutely nowhere else:
GUNS
M4A4 Howl (removed due to copyright violation) Dual Berettas Retribution (removed due to artist ban) P90 Desert Warfare (removed due to artist ban) CZ75-Auto Poison Dart (removed due to artist ban) StatTrak MAC-10 Curse (removed due to artist ban and cannot be traded up to) StatTrak USP-S Orion (removed due to artist ban and cannot be traded up to) The Consumer Grade skins of the Assault, Alpha, and Office collections cannot be traded up to and these collections did not return after their initial drop phase.
STICKERS
Note all of these are probably now rare offers in the in-game store:
Sticker Howling Dawn (removed due to copyright violation) Sticker King on the Field (removed due to artist ban) Sticker Winged Defuser (removed due to artist ban) Sticker Harp of War (Holo) (removed due to artist ban) Sticker Windy Walking Club (probably no longer for sale) Sticker War Penguin (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Terrorized (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Stay Frosty (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Fight like a Girl (probably no longer for sale) Sticker CT in Banana (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Chicken Strike (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Bossy Burger (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Blitzkrieg (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Witch (probably no longer for sale) Sticker T on Cat (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Stay Frosty (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Till Death Do Us Part (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Terrorized (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Pigeon Master (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Blitzkrieg (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Windy Walking Club (probably no longer for sale) Sticker War Penguin (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Shooting Star Return (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Nelu the Bear (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Flashbang (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Fight like a Girl (probably no longer for sale) Sticker CT in Banana (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Chicken Strike (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Cat Call (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Bossy Burger (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Trick Or Threat (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Zombie Lover (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Witch (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Trick Or Treat (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Bomb Squad (Foil) (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Work For Ammo (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Warowl (probably no longer for sale) Sticker T-Rekt (probably no longer for sale) Sticker SAS Chicken (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Piece Of Cake (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Pandamonium (probably no longer for sale) Sticker My Little Friend (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Massive Pear (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Ho Ho Ho (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Blood Boiler (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Headless Chicken (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Hostage Rescue (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Wanna Fight (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Witchcraft (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Robo (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Lucky Cat (Foil) (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Baaa-ckstabber! (probably no longer for sale) Sticker CS On The Mind (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Doru The Fox (probably no longer for sale)
Sticker Queen Of Pain (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Eco Rush (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Just Trolling (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Flickshot (probably no longer for sale) Sticker One Shot One Kill (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Chi Bomb (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Dinked (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Awp Country (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Ninja Defuse (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Delicious Tears (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Knife Club (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Doomed (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Don't Worry, I'm Pro (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Pros Don't Fake (? probably no longer for sale) Sticker Firestarter (Holo) (probably no longer for sale) Sticker Phoenix (Foil) (? probably no longer for sale)
CONTAINERS
2013/2014/2015/2016 Souvenir Cases (ceased dropping) Sticker Capsule 1 and 2 (ceased dropping, (note: as of the 2016-06-15 patch, they are most likely rare drops)) Community Sticker Capsule 1 (ceased dropping (note: as of the 2016-06-15 patch, they are most likely rare drops)) 2014/2015/2016 Tournament Sticker Capsules (no longer for sale) Gift Package, Pallet, and Parcel (only available during Christmas)
OTHER
All Operation Passes (no longer for sale) Music Kit Midnight Riders (no longer for sale, probably only available during Christmas) Weapon Case 1 (confirmed rare drop) Weapon Case 2 (confirmed rare drop) Weapon Case 3 (confirmed rare drop) eSports 2013 Case (confirmed rare drop) eSports 2013 Winter Case (confirmed rare drop) eSports 2014 Summer Case Operation Bravo Case (confirmed rare drop) Winter Offensive Case (confirmed rare drop) Vanguard Case (confirmed rare drop) Huntsman Case (confirmed rare drop) Chroma Case (confirmed rare drop) Phoenix Case Breakout Case Revolver Case Falchion Case Shadow Case Wildfire Case Chroma 2 Case Chroma 3 Case Operation Hydra Case (probably a mistake by Valve)
u/steamfrag has posted the drop timeframes for these., created a timeline visualization here, and overlayed price history visualizations here.
The following collections are discontinued when no operation is going on: Cache, Overpass, Cobblestone, Chop Shop, Rising Sun, Gods and Monsters. Consumer tier skins in those collections cannot be traded up to.
The following collections don't drop right now but could reappear in a future operation: Baggage, Mirage, Nuke, Militia, Inferno, Vertigo, Aztec, Dust, and, potentially, Assault, Office, and Alpha.

Q: What currently drops ingame and what are the case opening probabilities?

A:
All mainstream cases outside of the cases listed in the "other" section above drop. u/qsulphurous: The currently dropping weapon collections during non operation times are: Dust 2, Train, Bank, Italy, Safehouse, Lake. Mirage used to be in the drop Pool but was replaced by Bank when the Huntsman case was released. Here are the case opening probabilities

Q: What are some ways I can make a profit on the market, other than investing (long-term)?

A:
Note that a lot of these are automated already with bots (which can hurt your profitability) and that some are more scalable than others (e.g., through multiple accounts).
Weekly Operation fluctuations (hotshowerscene) - With the new "1 drop per week" for the operation we're seeing big fluctuations in some skins on the market . As the drop resets everyone levels up then most sell their skins more or less immediately. This massive influx drives the prices down. As the supply of skins slows throughout the week the price climbs back up, usually peaking just before the drop resets. If you play this right you can make a bit of profit by buying and selling on the market at the correct times for the correct prices. This can be a gamble as there's not really much certainty on the price. My advice here: research the skins and their trends. Skins that can be used in tradeups to highly desirable skins are the best, but it's hard to judge what will happen and what the price peak will be. If you do this, make sure you're happy with any profit and don't get too greedy. (example: Skins that tradeup to M4A1-S Icarus Fell) Random fluctuations - Keep an eye on mid price skins that there isn't a huge volume of (see Deagle Blaze) and if you manage to pick one up at a low price and sell at a peak price then you can net a few bucks profit. Do your research and hope you get lucky.
Wide daily seasonality: Some items peak every day at around noon and tank after midnight (EST). If the difference tends to offset the Steam tax (15%), it can be taken advantage of. Usually, this requires a large volume to be reasonably profitable. If you engage in this technique, keep in mind that there is a scalability limit for the profitability.
Expansion and contraction: After a popular game/operation/case/tournament/Steam-sale/market-bug is introduced, players try to dump their items on the market to buy whatever is hot. At the same time, buyers tend to also go for what's hot. Old investment supplies increase, and demand lessens. It is usually wise to do the opposite of the general market behavior and buy on these market crashes. When you want to sell something, it's usually best to wait until the market has fully recovered. Further, during some crashes, it might be better to wait until the end to buy-in as many investors try to buy in early.
Trade up items by starting from undervalued items - Start with an inexpensive item (snipe undervalued items from Opskins or CSGOlongue) and make a lot of profitable trades. This usually requires a lot of work. Also, most questions in this arena are better suited for globaloffensivetrade (and if you're trading game gifts /gametrade).
Trade up contract arbitrage - Determine if a certain weapon can be traded up to profitably (consider Steam tax). If so, buy the lower level skins, and sell the traded-up to skin on the market until it becomes unprofitable. This is probably already being done by bots. Note that the float value of the traded-up-to weapon is a function of the average float value of the traded-up-from skins.
Tournament sticker capsule opening arbitrage: During a period of time of the Cologne 2015 sale, it was actually profitable to buy capsules from the market, open them, and then resell them on the market (in the average case).
Smart/educated betting - Bet on teams where the betting odds are inefficient. Most questions in this arena are better suited for csgobetting.
Wide bid/ask spreads - Take advantage if the daily bid/ask spread is larger than the Valve tax. Buy commodities that are being demanded at a much lower price than they are being listed at, then sell them back. Don't do this en masse before an expected downturn.
Snipe undervalued items from the markets - In the Steam Community Market, this doesn't work well for the more expensive/rare items as the bots close to the Valve data-center (working serially and randomly) are likely to be faster. For OPSkins you can sort the items according to price and find undervalued items. Some sites compare the prices across sites, which allows arbitrage. There's also an extension that shows how discounted different items on OPskins are. Nonethewiserer: For CSGOlongue you can create quick buy order (on auto-bump) and offer fewer keys than an item is worth, and the order can go through on market crashes (quicksell listings).
Salvaging the junk yard of gambling sites (barnyard303): Cases can be acquired from CSGOskins for 1 cent as they are trying to liquidate them quickly. Decent skins are overvalued on gambling sites and can be used to cash in.
Watch a tournament and hope for souvenir drops: During tournaments, link up your twitch account to your Steam account and keep the twitch stream running in order to potentially get a Souvenir case.
Grinding operation missions or weekly drops: It is often the case that paying for the operation pass early is profitable if you get the mission drops and sell them on the market. When a new case is released it can be worthwhile to accumulate in-game time in order to get the new highly-priced case.
Sticker flipping: Sometimes it is profitable to buy stickers from the store and then flip them for a profit (after the 15% Steam tax) on the community market.
Hunting for sub-variations of items: Some items on various markets have specific sub-patterns/properties that are more valuable than the usual ones (ex., 5-7 Case Hardened blue pattern, Black Pearl pattern of Doppler knives, KennyS Cobblestone Packages, skins with the Howl sticker) and they are sometimes undervalued (especially during market downturns).
Item gambling: If done kosher, a -EV proposition because of the rake. Over many trials, a guaranteed loss due to the law of large numbers. That being said, some people have developed shady schemes where it can become profitable (e.g., via market manipulation). However, these schemes are risky.
Currency arbitrage: If a particular conversion is highly skewed and Valve's adjustment is slow, it can become profitable for a certain country to buy items in the store or Community Market and resell them off the community market to another country. You can use a VPN and Paypal to pretend you live in another country, although it's pretty risky.
Sell high and hope for a market bug/manipulation: List items for a higher price than their market value and hope that a Steam bug will occur where sellers temporarily won't be able to create new listings, while buyers can still buy the items (or hope that someone engages in market manipulation of your item).
Create high buy orders to items priced out of SCM: Some items (e.g., Kato 14 Holos and Dragon Lores) have a market value greater than can be listed in the SCM. Some uninformed owners will still list these items on sale on the SCM (way below market value) every few months, and their sell order gets matched with the highest buy order. Therefore, a profitable strategy is to create the highest buy orders on these items. Check this FAQ for how you can create these buy orders. Note that you actually need to have the money in your Steam wallet, and that it needs to stay there for a while (you can make buy orders for 10x the amount in your wallet). Having a large Steam wallet is already associated with hidden costs (inflation, illiquidity, Valve's fickle nature etc.); determine for yourself whether you deem these costs worth it. You also need a way to check if your buy order is the highest every now and then.

Q: What are some good sites and tools for market information, outside this subreddit?

A: http://www.steamanalyst.com/ - Moving averages http://steamcompanion.com/ - Historical supply numbers http://csgostash.com/ - All items categorized and visualized https://steamcommunity.com/market/ - The official Steam Community Market http://wiki.teamliquid.net/counterstrike/Main_Page - Historical info like operation dates
http://195.154.110.156/charts/items/ - Aggregate level stats per item http://csgobackpack.net/- Value of inventories http://steam.tools/itemvalue/ - Value of inventories http://csgo.exchange/ - Value of inventories, item prices, quantities of items http://www.goaggro.com/ - Price info http://steamcharts.com/app/730 - CSGO Player Base Stats http://beta.csgro.com/ - Track items http://www.hltv.org/ - CSGO news https://www.csgozone.net/ - Quantities of items http://blog.counter-strike.net/ - Official CSGO blog csgro.com - Market statistics, trade tools, inventory tracking (not yet available) Software: Steam Market Watchlist - Track investments http://counterstrike.wikia.com/wiki/Container#Weapon_Cases - Retired collections Steam Inventory Calculator - Track investments over multiple accounts (takes work to setup) Software: Steam inventory Helper - Automated selling of a lot of items in bulk Software: Better Buy Orders - See all the buy orders of an item in the Steam Community Market Steaminvestor (and Excel Formulas, see comments) - Track investments Automatic Account Creation - use software at own risk [Steam Desktop Authenticator for mass confirm listings - use software at own risk](www.google.com)

Q: How many items can I hold in my inventory?

Officially, 1000. You can list excess on the market, but after around 200 items listed, the Steam Community Market homepage wont load any longer; the specific item pages, will load, however. I'm not sure after how many items those pages will fail to load. levitating_cucumber and el_vper: You can also reach over 6000 items in your inventory by listing items on the market, buying more items, then cancelling the listed items (4000 2000 is the maximum safe amount). Note that your listing volume+Steam Wallet cannot exceed $500 at any given time. Konstaduck: If you have 999 items in your inventory, you can also accept a trade with at most 1000 items for a total space of 1999. u/MikeR0tch: Apparently, the trade trick doesn't work any longer, unless you follow some specific rules.

Q: How much does Steam charge in tax/fees when I sell an item on the Steam Community Market?

This thread show the exact formula, while this thread shows the values for cent values in the range $0.01 to $1.

Q: What is the most efficient way to buy in?

A: Buy items (not necessarily CSGO only) from trustworthy sellers (e.g., Opskins) that you can sell on the Steam Community Market. Spend some time to determine which item gives you the best rate (http://csgo.steamanalyst.com/hotdeals is one of the tools that can help you with that, there's also an extension out there that displays the discount% on each item loaded). Alternatively, Steam gift cards are sometime on sale. If someone is selling the investments you want off market at discounted rates, that could be an even more attractive option. When you buy from the SCM, it is almost always correct (unless you are dealing with something timing-sensitive) to place a buy order that's lower than the cheapest sell order.

Q: What are some real-money marketplaces for CSGO items?

A: Use at your own risk (use this one at your own risk)

Q: What is the most efficient way to cash out?

A: Sell the items directly on Opskins/Bitskins (or a trustworthy competitor with small fees). Depending on the investment items, this can take a while. As an alternative you can exchange your investments into liquid items (popular skins for frequently used weapons, certain knives, case keys, sticker keys, nametags etc. - spend some time to determine which item gives you the best rate) and sell those liquid items on OPskins. The latter method will increase the speed at which you get money but will lose you a larger percentage. Keep in mind that OPskins takes a percentage (5% or 10% depending on your membership - there are coupon codes btw), Paypal takes a percentage (~2%), and that the values on OPskins are lower than in the Steam Community Market. Also, every transaction on the Steam Community Market takes away 15% already. Occasionally the items on OPskins are so cheap compared to SCM that it becomes worth it to sell them on SCM instead, buy keys from the in-game store, and then sell those keys on OPskins. When selling on SCM it almost always is correct to sell with an order that's higher than the highest buy order and higher than the lowest sell order if the lowest sell order is lower than recent trends display.

Q: Why did item X increase/decrease in price?

A: Possible reasons: CS:GO updates/balance changes/game changes/market changes (e.g., Tradeup Contract), new cases/operations (both short-term, due to opening frenzies, and long-term, due to increased supplies of skins), a famous streamer hypes an item, someone tries to manipulate the market, a AAA game is released (short-term loss and long-term losses), a tournament is taking place (CS:GO, DOta 2 etc.), a Steam-sale is going on, a market-bug is ongoing, the ingame drop rate was increased/decreased, legal issues about things related to the CSGO market (e.g., betting) etc.

Q: If I create a new Steam account, what do I have to do in order to transfer items to that account? How long does this take?

A: Create a new account, log in (via the thick client), set up your profile, enable Steam Guard, wait 15 days, and transfer the items to the account from your main (double check that it is your account). If you intend to use the thin client (e.g., via Chrome), make sure that you log in from there as well because Steam will impose a 7 day trade restriction on your account when you attempt to create a new transaction from a new device (a device meaning a new browser). Also, if you do not have mobile authentication enabled on the alt account, there will be a 3 day delay for trades. You can use the same phone number & email address for many Steam accounts. Also, Gmail forwards emails addressed to your account even if dots (.) are added in between the username characters of your email address.

Q: If I create a new Steam account, what do I have to do in order to use the Community Market in that account? How long does this take?

A: Same steps as above, but you need to purchase a game that costs at least $5 or deposit $5 into your Steam wallet (and wait a month) before being able to use the Community Market. Keep in mind that using a new payment method will trigger a weeklong community market ban on your account.

Q: After buying an item from the Steam Community Market, how long do I have to wait until I can sell/trade it?

A: They are sellable immediately on the Market. You need to wait a week until you can trade them to another account.

Q: How are buy orders prioritized once someone sells an item with a price in the buy range?

A: See answer here: Price -> currency -> datetime of order. Apparently, there is some controversy over this. There's the hypothesis out there that this ruleset only applies to weapon listings and that sticker listings work as follows: Price (order qualifier) -> some combination of currency and datetime of order (quantifier)

Q: How do I add over $400 to my Steam Wallet?

A: Buy keys and games with your wallet funds and then create refunds on all those purchases. Redeem Steam Wallet codes. Perhaps you have to use the Steam API to create buy orders with these large amounts of Steam money (u/ursoos). It's needless to be said that this is quite risky.

Q: How do I mass sell items without having to list and confirm them one-by-one?

A: Steam Inventory Helper and Steam Desktop Authenticator (here's how to avoid a 7 day trade ban while transfering the authenticator).

Q: Approx. what fraction of bought containers are actually opened?

A: For all listings, approx. 35%. ~ Two thirds (with a large variance) for sell order prices higher than current buy order prices, while the follow-up indicates 60% of high sell orders. For sell listings that are fulfilled immediately: unknown, but probably much lower. If we assume that they are 0, and that the number of either type of fulfilled sale is equal, we get 33%. This study predicts 20-25%

Q: Help! I listed to many items and my Steam market page won't load any longer. How can I access the listed items?

A: Try to give it some time to load. If that doesn't work, this might work. Additionally, try to load the specific item page of the item that you've listed so many of. If all else fails, perhaps you can access/cancel the items with a Javascript script. As a last resort, you can wait six (or 12?) months until the listings are automatically cancelled or contact Steam support.

Credits

bluechops: FAQ 1.0 hotshowerscene: Item categories 1.0 Steamfrag: Discontinued items 1.0

Changelog

2016-05-24 Added changelog, referenced a thread with interesting stats in the first section 2016-05-24 How many items can I hold in my inventory? Linked the quick trade trick. 2016-06-15 Added FAQ element on SCM market page not loading. 2016-06-16 Changed references saying that Sticker Capsules do not drop. Added reference to Javascipt source which is potentially able to remove listings in case pages do not load. 2016-06-22 Added http://195.154.110.156/charts/items/ to websites 2016-06-24 Added more information to How do I add over $400 to my Steam Wallet? 2016-06-28 Added revolver case to rare drops 2016-07-03 Added more info to "Why did item X increase/decrease in price?" 2016-07-04 Minor formatting 2016-07-05 More info added to the question about listing and confirming items to sell on SCM 2016-07-07 Grammar 2016-07-17 Added the Q&A on Steam tax 2016-07-21 Added more clarification to Why did item X increase/decrease in price?, added Falchion to rare drops, added all kinds of references to OPskins-SCM arbitrage opportunities, and an extension that shows discount% on OPskins items 2016-07-22 Added Q&A regarding what currently drops. 2016-08-27 Qualified the tl:dr in the first question, added Shadow Case to rare drops, added tips for SCM buyin/cashouts at the respective questions. 2016-09-06 Added http://beta.csgro.com/ to links 2016-09-18 Create high buy orders to items priced out of SCM, added more realistic warning at the bottom of thread 2016-10-04 More clarifications to Create high buy orders to items priced out of SCM 2016-10-25 Added indications that retired in-game sticker offers returned as rare offers 2016-10-25 Added Wildfire case as rare drop 2016-12-06 Added more software links 2016-12-10 Case opening probabilities 2017-01-14 Added link to steamfrags item availability chart 2017-03-16 Added Chroma 2 to rare drops 2017-09-23 Added Chroma 3 to rare drops 2017-09-23 Added Operation Hydra Case to discontinued drops
Please notify me of potential corrections and suggestions. Any of the information in this thread may be outdated at any given time; invest at your own risk. You should be psychologically prepared to lose everything invested in CSGO items. Valve is very fickle with regard to rules and regulations that could affect the SCM, the CSGO game, general Steam item management, and anything related.
submitted by Helicobacter to csgomarketforum [link] [comments]

A gambling exchange is refusing to honour my bet, resulted in £4,400 loss.

Firstly I should probably explain a bit more about what I do before I get stuck into what exactly happened. I am a hobbyist sports trader and hedge bets on correct scores in game as well as benefiting from arbitrage betting in which you bet for and against a team at the same time to take advantage of the potential profit in the difference in odds. It is a form of gambling but with very little actual risk i.e. the risk of adding extra digits or not “backing” or “laying” the correct bet. I am very careful and have until this incident made a consistent profit.
In my case I backed (bet for) Man united with £4,500 at odds of 2.05
&
Attempted to lay (bet against) Man united on the exchange with £4,400 at odds of 2.0
I’ve done this hundreds of times before and my bet showed as was matched in the top right hand box of the user interface on Smarkets; however the site started having difficulties and my account information was not accessible. Yet my bet continued to show as fully matched and the liquidity and odds when I placed it were what you’d expect and what other exchanges offered.
I was still worried though as Smarkets continued to go on and offline and I tried multiple times to contact them to confirm my bet was definitely matched. If at any time they’d replied to me I would have been able to lay the team off (at a huge loss admittedly) at another exchange.
The bet appeared as matched and so I thought that’s all that matters- until several hours later when (I was finally able to get access to my account information) that I found it wasn’t.
https://imgur.com/4t7NeBQ
The information in my account info showed that the bet was placed and then cancelled (by the exchange) twenty minutes into the game (market halted). This is very odd as the odds I placed the lay at were the going lay rate at all exchange and the market would have been halted normally within seconds on the match having started.
I won’t talk about how it feels to lose £4500 (remember I backed the team at a bookie) it’s pretty shit, but now I just need to know whether I’ve a hope in hell of getting even a penny of it back.
I contacted Smarkets the same day and over the last week they’ve slowly responded to everything I’ve said with some copy and paste crap about how sorry they are and how they want to improve the site. The only time I ever got anything semi related to my case was when I showed them how my bet was matched and they responded that the bet is only definitely matched if it appears in your account information.
My argument against them would be several-fold:
  1. Firstly the information in my account info was not available until that evening and the only information I had to go on was the active bets section that clearly showed my bet as having been fully matched.
  2. The bet I placed should have been matched at those odds all the exchanges offered similar odds to lay the bet and Smarkets in an email to me confirmed that the odds available were the same as what I had layed.
  3. Smarkets had huge issues that day and refunded numerous other users for the exact reason as me. Surely this is precedent? They acknowledged that the site had difficulties,that members lost money and choose to refund some of us.
  4. Smarkets were negligent in keeping their website online knowing that members could be misled by their user interface. They also did not reply during the several hours I attempted to contact them regarding this issue when I still had time to salvage the problem.
But I am really not sure if any of this will be good enough. Smarkets refuses to help and I am not sure if the gambling commission will be much use either. But with such a huge lose I’d be prepared to pay legal fees to even recover even a fraction of it.
Also I know that some people will no doubt berate me for what they see as gambling my money and yes there’s always some risk involved but this is similar to paying money into an overdrawn bank account, that bank account showing that it’s in credit but then finding a few days later that you’ve been charged huge overdrawn fees as the money wasn’t added. I did everything right but still lost money.
Sorry this was such a long post! If anyone manages to trawl through that and can offer any help or advice it’d really mean alot to me.
submitted by HelpwithSmarkets to SoccerBetting [link] [comments]

A gambling exchange is refusing to honour my bet, resulted in £4,400 loss.

Firstly I should probably explain a bit more about what I do before I get stuck into what exactly happened. I am a hobbyist sports trader and hedge bets on correct scores in game as well as benefiting from arbitrage betting in which you bet for and against a team at the same time to take advantage of the potential profit in the difference in odds. It is a form of gambling but with very little actual risk i.e. the risk of adding extra digits or not “backing” or “laying” the correct bet. I am very careful and have until this incident made a consistent profit.
In my case I backed (bet for) Man united with £4,500 at odds of 2.05
&
Attempted to lay (bet against) Man united on the exchange with £4,400 at odds of 2.0
I’ve done this hundreds of times before and my bet showed as was matched in the top right hand box of the user interface on Smarkets; however the site started having difficulties and my account information was not accessible.
Yet my bet continued to show as fully matched and the liquidity and odds when I placed it were what you’d expect and what other exchanges offered.
I was still worried though as Smarkets continued to go on and offline and I tried multiple times to contact them to confirm my bet was definitely matched. If at any time they’d replied to me I would have been able to lay the team off (at a huge loss admittedly) at another exchange.
The bet appeared as matched and so I thought that’s all that matters- until several hours later when (I was finally able to get access to my account information) that I found it wasn’t.
https://imgur.com/4t7NeBQ
The information in my account info showed that the bet was placed and then cancelled (by the exchange) twenty minutes into the game (market halted). This is very odd as the odds I placed the lay at were the going lay rate at all exchange and the market would have been halted normally within seconds on the match having started.
I won’t talk about how it feels to lose £4500 (remember I backed the team at a bookie) it’s pretty shit, but now I just need to know whether I’ve a hope in hell of getting even a penny of it back. I contacted Smarkets the same day and over the last week they’ve slowly responded to everything I’ve said with some copy and paste crap about how sorry they are and how they want to improve the site.
The only time I ever got anything semi related to my case was when I showed them how my bet was matched and they responded that the bet is only definitely matched if it appears in your account information.
My argument against them would be several-fold:
  1. Firstly the information in my account info was not available until that evening and the only information I had to go on was the active bets section that clearly showed my bet as having been fully matched.
  2. The bet I placed should have been matched at those odds all the exchanges offered similar odds to lay the bet and Smarkets in an email to me confirmed that the odds available were the same as what I had layed.
  3. Smarkets had huge issues that day and refunded numerous other users for the exact reason as me. Surely this is precedent? They acknowledged that the site had difficulties,that members lost money and choose to refund some of us.
  4. Smarkets were negligent in keeping their website online knowing that members could be misled by their user interface. They also did not reply during the several hours I attempted to contact them regarding this issue when I still had time to salvage the problem.
But I am really not sure if any of this will be good enough. Smarkets refuses to help and I am not sure if the gambling commission will be much use either. But with such a huge lose I’d be prepared to pay legal fees to even recover even a fraction of it.
Also I know that some people will no doubt berate me for what they see as gambling my money and yes there’s always some risk involved but this is similar to paying money into an overdrawn bank account, that bank account showing that it’s in credit but then finding a few days later that you’ve been charged huge overdrawn fees as the money wasn’t added. I did everything right but still lost money.
Sorry this was such a long post! If anyone manages to trawl through that and can offer any help or advice it’d really mean alot to me.
submitted by HelpwithSmarkets to UKPersonalFinance [link] [comments]

A gambling exchange is refusing to honour my bet, resulted in £4,400 loss.

Firstly I should probably explain a bit more about what I do before I get stuck into what exactly happened. I am a hobbyist sports trader and hedge bets on correct scores in game as well as benefiting from arbitrage betting in which you bet for and against a team at the same time to take advantage of the potential profit in the difference in odds. It is a form of gambling but with very little actual risk i.e. the risk of adding extra digits or not “backing” or “laying” the correct bet. I am very careful and have until this incident made a consistent profit.
In my case I backed (bet for) Man united with £4,500 at odds of 2.05
& Attempted to lay (bet against) Man united on the exchange with £4,400 at odds of 2.0
I’ve done this hundreds of times before and my bet showed as was matched in the top right hand box of the user interface on Smarkets; however the site started having difficulties and my account information was not accessible. Yet my bet continued to show as fully matched and the liquidity and odds when I placed it were what you’d expect and what other exchanges offered.
I was still worried though as Smarkets continued to go on and offline and I tried multiple times to contact them to confirm my bet was definitely matched. If at any time they’d replied to me I would have been able to lay the team off (at a huge loss admittedly) at another exchange.
The bet appeared as matched and so I thought that’s all that matters- until several hours later when (I was finally able to get access to my account information) that I found it wasn’t.
https://imgur.com/4t7NeBQ
The information in my account info showed that the bet was placed and then cancelled (by the exchange) twenty minutes into the game (market halted). This is very odd as the odds I placed the lay at were the going lay rate at all exchange and the market would have been halted normally within seconds on the match having started.
I won’t talk about how it feels to lose £4500 (remember I backed the team at a bookie) it’s pretty shit, but now I just need to know whether I’ve a hope in hell of getting even a penny of it back. I contacted Smarkets the same day and over the last week they’ve slowly responded to everything I’ve said with some copy and paste crap about how sorry they are and how they want to improve the site. The only time I ever got anything semi related to my case was when I showed them how my bet was matched and they responded that the bet is only definitely matched if it appears in your account information.
My argument against them would be several-fold:
  1. Firstly the information in my account info was not available until that evening and the only information I had to go on was the active bets section that clearly showed my bet as having been fully matched.
  2. The bet I placed should have been matched at those odds all the exchanges offered similar odds to lay the bet and Smarkets in an email to me confirmed that the odds available were the same as what I had layed.
  3. Smarkets had huge issues that day and refunded numerous other users for the exact reason as me. Surely this is precedent? They acknowledged that the site had difficulties,that members lost money and choose to refund some of us.
  4. Smarkets were negligent in keeping their website online knowing that members could be misled by their user interface. They also did not reply during the several hours I attempted to contact them regarding this issue when I still had time to salvage the problem.
But I am really not sure if any of this will be good enough. Smarkets refuses to help and I am not sure if the gambling commission will be much use either. But with such a huge lose I’d be prepared to pay legal fees to even recover even a fraction of it.
Also I know that some people will no doubt berate me for what they see as gambling my money and yes there’s always some risk involved but this is similar to paying money into an overdrawn bank account, that bank account showing that it’s in credit but then finding a few days later that you’ve been charged huge overdrawn fees as the money wasn’t added. I did everything right but still lost money.
Sorry this was such a long post! If anyone manages to trawl through that and can offer any help or advice it’d really mean alot to me.
submitted by HelpwithSmarkets to LegalAdviceUK [link] [comments]

WhOaMi's "Tips + Tricks" (repost from 2014).

9/19/2015
Researching sports betting strategy on the Internet is akin to dipping a cup into the Atlantic Ocean – millions of words of advice exist for people looking to gain an advantage when placing bets on sporting events. You’re just as likely to read bad advice as you are to find solid sports betting strategy, at least without some kind of guidance. Every gambler with a website or a Twitter account seems to have a unique sports betting system, some which work, some which don’t. How can you dig through the pages and pages of material written about sports gambling and find the nuggets of wisdom that will actually help you turn a profit? What should you look for in a good sports betting strategy? Broken down into its most basic parts, good sports betting strategy is defined as any system that improves your chances of beating the bookmaker
TLDR
No one will tell you anything except what is and has been public knowledge. You're here because you want information spoonfed (no judgement), however, this is a hobby, profession, addiction, way of life, etc... There is no "right" answer to this question; other than results.
Tips
  1. You can make easy "profit" through "arbitrage betting".
  2. Do not Max Bet (x6 furys/hooks) without understanding, FULLY, how returns are prioritized at the site you're betting. Yes, there can be "easy" "profit" .. however, that is usually washed away quickly with an upset.
Topic Context Summary Link
+EV Explained "" Link
Advice from experienced bettors who have huge profits? My Advice 3+ months ago Link
BO1 SEA DOTA My first post in /d2lb from this username link
"Line Shopping" I elaborate on "line shopping". Link
Will add more later.
The Guide (August 2014)
  • Disclaimer and Basic Information
  1. This is a summary of my initial "Tips and Tricks" submission posted 12+ months ago (aka 2 "TI's" ago). I consider it dated, to an extent. I have studied and learned more on sports betting than I ever imagined. Looking back, when I wrote this guide, I believe my short-term success (3-4 months), was primarily from having a deep understanding of DOTA at the highest level, luck (fanboy betting my favorite team whom had a 64-75% win rate during that time and again, LUCK.
  2. I am not a professional gambler. Everything I write is my opinion. You are responsible for how you bet, no one else.
  3. If you're expecting a rags to riches story from gambling - get real with yourself. Making money, in the long term, requires hard work, an understanding of mathematics (above high school algebra).
  4. I HIGHLY, HIGHLY, suggest looking at gambling as strictly recreational - for fun.
  5. If you "tilt" easily, and are not great with Money Management, this is not for you. Get the fuck out now, before you become another statistic.
  • My Daily Routine
(NOTE: 9/19/2015) - Understand this guide is a year old I have completely changed my approach, however, I still stand by what I wrote for the casual-intermediate "puntebettor".
  1. I bookmark or "follow" every team + players - Twitter, Facebook, gosugamers, dotabuff/flame, google search, and anything else I feel is relevant for data mining. I have a different system, now, which involves a simple programing language in Excel. I will elaborate in another topic.
  2. I check ALL bookmakers odds, handicaps, and watch how the change from when the bookmakers allows bets to be placed. Understanding how bookmakers work, odds, probabilities, statistics, are a few important pieces to the puzzle.**
  3. I almost never max bet BO1's with +EV (estimated value). This can be confusing. What I am trying to say is I have a different approach than the vegas flavor of the year (kelly edge, +EV, and 1-5% max of your bank).
  4. I only bet more than 5% of my bank when I feel my data is superior to the public.
  5. I categorize teams in "tiers". This Is a great read for understanding how to categorize a players tier.
  • Ranking Teams (tiers)
  1. Are a team's mechanics better than the majority.
  2. Do they have a deep hero pool, resilience, resolve, resolution, and determination to grind out long tournaments?
  3. Can they set and or adapt quickly to the meta? Past TI winners have either been able to set the metta during TI or adapt quickly
  4. Is their teamwork decision making one of the best in pro dota? This I cannot emphasize, enough IMHO, NaVI did not make it to 3 T.I. Grand Finals by being the best at their positions, save puppey (imho) and Dendi, at times. They got to 3 Grand Finals, and won one by being the best or one of the best TEAMS and executed as a team on a higher skill than their opponents.
  5. I place the teams into Tiers. Tier 1 is the best of the best and are a down right contender for TI5. Tier 1.5 -Something needs work, but they're a damn good team and can easily take games off anyone. Tier 2 - Sketchy dota from here on down. I usually avoid betting on these matches - especially in small prize pool tournaments.
  6. I have 5 tier 1 teams at the moment, though, this is subject to change as we see more teams develop / slide off in upcoming patches, etc.. If a team cannot adapt to change, or set the change, they will not win a International, imho.
  7. I evaluate the tournament the teams are playing in, and how important this match/series is to the teams. Most Tier 1 teams will experiment and do funky drafts that end up losing as heavy favorites. As we get closer to TI, expect most tournaments pre-T.I. as experiments for top teams.
  • I watch dota, and can think for myself. Now what?
  1. READ THE RULES AND UNDERSTAND THEM - WHEREVER YOU BET Don't be that guy bitching about lost items/money because you refused to read the fine print of the bookmaker you're willing to deposit money or items.
  2. I advise setting a "bank". Depending on how you prefer to operate, a weekly amount you're willing to spend or a TOTAL amount (bankroll) for betting. Once it's gone, it' gone.. walk away.. Trust me on this! If nothing else.
  • It takes money to make money. Betting is gambling. There is a reason the box you enter your $bet amount is labeled "risk". If you like get rich plans, with little to no work involved.. GL, cause you're gonna get taken for everything, or until you wake up and stop.
I will edit this throughout the next week. PM me any suggestions on content I should remove, add, or re-word. This is strictly a copy/paste from my post in /dota2lougebets (after I edited it in my own sub).
submitted by Bizarro-aka-WhOaMi to Dota2Betting [link] [comments]

What is the Best Arbitrage Betting Software in 2019 ? Simple Arbitrage Betting Strategy [Followers Q & A] Sure bets strategy to win bookmakers every time. Arbitrage Betting Tutorial Round 2: Easy RISK FREE $£$£ using FREE Software Sure Bets - bet on sports and win every time!  Arbitrage Guides

4. BetConnect. BetConnect allows experienced, restricted sports bettors (pro gamblers) to place stakes — that they couldn’t possibly get away at Bookmakers — via its network of Punters.. A Pro requests a bet along with the stake they want, and BetConnect distributes it out to logged-in Punters to match, and/or copy for themselves. Thus on the surface of it BetConnect serves as a Bet Arbitrage betting requires no luck, statistics or knowledge of the sport you’re betting on. But despite this, thousands of people are using the arbitrage betting method to guarantee a profit on sports bets day in, day out.. It sounds way too good to be true! but it’s incredibly easy to get started and the opportunity is there, ready for the taking. Arbitrage betting is a risk-free approach to betting that guarantees a profit. It involves placing proportional bets on every possible outcome of an event (with different bookmakers) so regardless of what happens, you will make a profit. If you enter the Odds for any two-way or three-way market in the Arbitrage Calculator above, it will work Arbitrage involves placing bet simultaneously (I.e. you place that team A will win with a bookmaker and placing an opposing bet that team B will win with another site). There are discrepancies between bookmakers, the basis of arbitrage betting is to find those discrepancies and place a bet on opposing outcome. Another factor is the amount of arbs you are capable of finding, as well as their sports betting arbitrage percentage. If you are devoted to this, and you manage to find arbs each and every month, you can expect to get returns of about 15% to 25% of the supply of money you have.

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What is the Best Arbitrage Betting Software in 2019 ?

Sports Betting Tips: Arbitrage and Scalping in Baseball - Duration: 7:15. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 2,758 views. 7:15. Best Sports Betting Strategies (feat. Sure betting (Sports Arbitrage) with RebelBetting - Bet on sports and win every time - Duration: 1:13. RebelBetting - Turn gambling into investing 135,598 views 1:13 Arbitrage sports betting is a low risk strategy for winning money by placing bets in bookies. This strategy is very easy in use and every bettor may use it even since of first betting day. What is arbitrage betting? An arbitrage bet arises when bookmakers have different opinions on the outcome of a sports event. This is reflected in the odds they provide and because the odds are so ... Sports Arbitrage betting Software varies in price quite substantially but the majority of arb betting software have the same features (with some exceptions). Pricey options are Rebelbetting ...