Last season Peyton Manning finished 6th in Passing Yards, 4th in TDs, 6th in INT %, and 2nd in Completion %, and took over a team that won a playoff game the previous season and played in the worst division in football, yet finished 2nd in MVP voting to a Running Back. I was so offended by this I decided to take a look at certain perceptions widely held about Manning and Brady and see if they match the reality. . . Myth #1 . Brady's 9-4 record against Manning head to head is simply because Tom has played on better teams . . Belichick's career record without Tom Brady is 52-62. 5-13 as HC of the NEP prior to Brady's first start 1 playoff appearance in 7 seasons as head coach without Brady (1-1 record) . Peyton Manning’s head coaches have compiled a 230-209 career record when they've started another QB. Though Jim "Playoffs" Mora may be something of a punchline now what he did in New Orleans prior to going to Indy was nothing short of legendary. Same with Dungy in Tampa. And of course Fox won a playoff game with Tim Tebow at QB. . . Average NFL Defensive Rank since 2001: . Brady’s teams: 17th Manning’s teams: 15th . That's right. Manning's teams have averaged a better defensive rank than Brady's. When Manning had his huge year in 2004 everyone just says "Pats D" to explain away his 0-2 record vs Brady. But forgotten is that when Brady had his big year in 2007 the Colts had the best defense in the NFL but that didn't stop Brady from hitting two long bombs at the end of the game to win at Indy. Just take last season - the Broncos defense allowed 42 fewer points and 1,320 fewer yards than the Patriots - but that didn't stop Brady's offense from blowing Manning's Broncos off the field for another win. . . The AFC East sucks! . You'll get no argument from me. But how has each QB faired against the other QB's division opponents since 2002? Brady 11-3 including 3-0 in playoffs vs Manning's division opponents Manning 8-5 including 0-2 in playoffs vs rest of AFC East If the AFC East has been such a weak division since 2002 why does Peyton Manning have a 1-4 record against AFC East teams in the playoffs over that span? . . How about the talent on offense? Before Manning began his career the Colts already had Marshall Faulk and Marvin Harrison. Now I love Troy Brown for all he did but was he as good as a WR as Marvin Harrison? Just, no. Was Branch as good as Wayne? After Faulk the Colts got James. So for the 1st 8 seasons of his career Peyton Manning had a Hall of Fame WR to throw to (and got another in Wayne in 2001) and a Hall of Fame running back to hand off to. Do you think anyone from the 2001 Superbowl champion Patriots offense will be going to the Hall of Fame other than Tom Brady? But for over a decade people have just been stating unquestioningly that Tom Brady has played on better teams? Well I'm sure Antowain Smith and David Patten look forward to their Hall of Fame inductions! . Noteworthy that when Brady got his talent, 2007, when he threw for 50 TDs, scored the most points in league history, and didn't lose a game, he was in his 7th year as a starting QB. In Peyton's 7th year as a starting QB he threw 49 TDs and scored the then 3rd most points in league history (and went 0-2 vs Brady). . Let's look at what Vegas thought about these "better teams" Brady played on. If you're like me you're often astounded by how accurately the Las Vegas betting line predicts the outcomes of NFL games. Well how did Vegas predict the 4 meetings, all won by Brady, in the 2003 and 2004 seasons: 2003 Reg Season at Indy: Colts by 3.5 2003 Playoff at New England: Pats by 3.5 2004 Reg Season at New England: Pats by 3.0 2004 Playoff at New England: Pats by 1.0 Don't people say that playing at home is worth 3 points on the Vegas line? So if anything Vegas considered the Colts to be the better team for those years. I realize people might say but the Colts were only thought to be good because of Manning but what I'm saying is everyone knew the Pats had a great D those years but still thought the Colts were as good or better. It's not like the odds makers didn't know the Patriots had a good defense in 2004. Maybe their mistake was thinking the Colts had an advantage at QB. After all when the Pats held the mighty 2004 Colts to 3 points in the playoffs both their starting CBs (Law and Poole) and their All Pro linemen (Seymour) were inactive and Troy Brown was playing CB. Could the Patriots have lost all 11 starters on defense and still Brady been denied any credit for the victory? Troy Brown was the nickle back when the 2004 Pats beat the Colts in the playoffs and all everyone says is Brady's team had the better defense. Seriously? . . Myth #2 . Manning is the far better QB statistically . Seasons leading the NFL: . Yards Brady 2 Manning 2 . TDs Brady 3 Manning 3 . Completion % Brady 1 Manning 2 . INT % Brady 2 Manning 0 . Looks about even to me. How about the big stats? . Yards per game Brady 256 Manning 266 . Completion % Brady 64% Manning 65% . TD% Brady 5.6 Manning 5.6 . INT % Brady 2.1 Manning 2.7 . Over their careers Peyton Manning has completed 1 more pass out of every 100 thrown for 10 more yards per game than Tom Brady. But in doing so he also throws 1 more interception out of a every 100 throws. So basically they're pretty similar statistically. Perhaps more similar than most people realize over their whole careers. . But stats aren't everything. Wins and, for a QB, points are. Well, of course not only is Brady 9-5 vs Manning head to head but Tom Brady has also outscored Peyton Manning overall for their entire careers. That's right. Despite starting his career with cast offs around him while Manning had Hall of Famers, Tom Brady's teams have scored more points per game over his career than Peyton Manning's teams have over his. Add to that that Tom Brady has the highest winning % as a QB in NFL history and I have to ask - why is this even a debate? Must less one that heavily favors Manning? . . Myth #3 . Peyton Manning is clutch . Here's a list of all the instances where Manning trailed Brady's Pats by 1 score in the final minutes but failed to tie or win the game: . 2003 Regular Season at Indy . 1st and Goal from the 2. Trailing by 4. Need TD to win. 4 plays, 1 yard. Turnover on downs. Patriots win. . 2003 AFC Championship . 1st Down at own 20, 2:01 left. trailing by 7, all 3 timeouts remaining 4 straight incompletions. Turnover on downs. Patriots win. . 2004 Regular Season at New England . 3rd Down at the New England 17. Trailing 3 with 50 seconds left. Would be 34 yd FG attempt for most accurate kicker in NFL history Sacked by McGinnest for 12 yard loss. Vanderjack misses from 48 yds. Patriots win. . 2007 Regular Season . 1st Down at own 24. 3:10 left trailing by 4, 2 timeouts renaming. After driving Colts to mid-field Manning stupidly tries to flip the ball away while being dragged down by Jarvis Green. The fumble is caught by Colvin. Patriots win. . 2010 Regular Season . 1st Down at NE 24. 37 seconds left, trailing by 3. 2 timeouts remaining. Already in FG range for the tie Manning stupidly throws a duck into traffic and James Sanders picks it off. Patriots win. . . 5 of the 9 times Manning has lost to Brady he had a chance to tie or win at the end. But all we ever hear about are the 2 times (out of 7 chances!) when he did manage to pull it of. (and of course one of those he only had to go 29 yards thanks to the infamous 4th and 2)
The rumors of our death were greatly exaggerated, here we are! Though we may die if I don't get people signing up as back-ups for:
New York Red Bulls
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Real Salt Like
New York City FC
Please fill these, and rankers please submit by Tuesday night so these can keep coming out at that time. Also today's Tuesday game doesn't count as nobody expected the Tuesday game. 10/20 Rankers Reporting
Seattle Sounders FC
Are you not entertained? No really, Dempsey & Martins are amazing to watch and once again there's reasons to be impressed by our defense (something which feels weird to say).
Columbus came into RFK after blasting two terrible teams (Orlando and Philly) for a combined 7-1 as FAVORITES (according to Las Vegas betting lines) and found out what commentators, pundits and other so called experts are just now realizing. DC is for real and it ok to say so.
Diaz and Castillo are linking up and making the runs that create goals. Our attacking play is once again the scary force Pareja has been building for the past year.
New England Revolution
Overall a dominating performance against a quality team. Agudelo, Davies and Bunbury will be the threat that everyone prepares for, but so far it's been the behind-the-scenes guys in Kobayashi, Caldwell, and most recently, Woodbury, that makes this team so good.
New York Red Bulls
No ranking submitted
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
No ranking submitted
No ranking submitted
Columbus Crew SC
Columbus had a rough night in the nation's capital. Despite controlling the game in possession Columbus gave up two easy goals. The first came from a terrible turnover by Meram which had Rolfe & Espindola off to the races. The second came from a terrible challenge by Clark followed by lazy marking in the box during a DCU corner. Hopefully this is a wake up call for Columbus who have a stretch of easier games coming up. This week Columbus face the rising challenge that is Seattle (and their terrible capos) at home.
Sporting Kansas City
This weekend was a good win against a tough Chicago side. Feilhaber is on another level right now, seeing as he only had 4 incomplete passes in the entire game. It was nice to see Nagamura come off the bench and provide a spark. Dwyer's bad form is still worrisome however, and I'm not convinced if Kevin Ellis should be the de-facto starter at centerback. Tim Melia had a really good game though and helped keep the shutout.
No ranking submitted
San Jose Earthquakes
Here it is: the seesaw that is the SJ Earthquakes finally balanced itself, as we get our first draw of the year, 1-1 vs RSL. Though technically SJ did not allow a single RSL player to score. This team is looking like a borderline playoff one. Look for them to make it as the West's fifth or sixth seed. Once/if this happens, who knows what could happen next?
Real Salt Lake
No ranking submitted
No one could be happier than Diego Valeri is back in the saddle with another disappointing scoreless draw on the books. Timbers fans are keeping their fingers crossed that Valeri finds his form again with a trip to Montreal scheduled for next weekend.
No ranking submitted
No ranking submitted
Orlando City SC
Orlando, despite not playing in MLS, had goods and bads this week. The good: First win at home this year against Brazillian side Ponte Preta. The bad: Kevin Molino goes down for the season with an ACL injury.
The Rapids had three straight 0-0 draws, a loss, a win, a loss, then now three straight 1-1 draws. I am now expecting a win, loss, win, then three straight 2-2 draws. Other than one explosion against Dallas, the Rapids just can't win. Forwards are missing finishing attempts, and the past two games the Rapids blew a lead. At least we're getting points...
New York City FC
No ranking submitted
Back in 1976, the Philadelphia Atoms were sold to a few Mexican clubs, including CD Guadalajara. They fielded a mainly Mexican squad and finished near the bottom of the standings. So in a way, Philadelphia had Chivas USA before Los Angeles did - and now with the Goats gone, it appears Philadelphia has reclaimed the mantle in terms of playing ability. Another loss for the Union as they dropped a 1-0 decision to Toronto FC. It hurt not having C.J. Sapong who apparently learned a bit too much from his ex-coach, and got an indefinite suspension for it. Next up, a trip out to the West Coast to take on Vancouver Whitecaps FC, and this redditor has his doubts that the Boys in Blue will be able to capture a point, much less all three.
Montreal returns to league play this weekend against Portland. But before that, they will have another non-league match against Toronto on Wednesday in the semi-final first leg of the Canadian Championship. If Montreal wants to pursue another CCL finals run next year, it all starts on Wednesday.
At Pro Football Winners, they do the job to give Indian players the best advice and bonus offers for Money Line Betting Online Las Vegas and finding the best online betting sites. #MoneyLineBetting #LasVegas
Enjoy The Sheer Fun of Placing Bets with Money Line Betting Las Vegas
Complexity is never fun when you are going to place the bets. So play the Money Line Betting Las Vegas, which will be simple even for the beginners. You just need to predict which team or person will win the game coming up shortly.
You are invited to the /r/NFLstatheads Battle of the Bots pick-'em challenge
http://i.imgur.com/3gJJ2R5.png /NFLstatheads will be holding a pick-‘em challenge we are calling the Battle of the Bots. Competitors are encouraged to create their own statistical pick-‘em tool (a bot), but you can also participate in the human category if you pick games the old fashioned way. If you win:
You will become world-famous on a subreddit of 600 people.
Your parents might love you again.
Attractive people will throw themselves at you sexually.
The entry form for your picks is here. Picks start in week 3, so get number crunching! Rules for humans and bots
Picks will start week 3 and go through week 16. If there is interest, we can do a playoff pick-‘em as well.
Instead of just choosing a winner, you will have to give a confidence level in your pick. The page will ask, e.g. “How likely is it that the home team will win in GB @ HOU?” If you think GB has a 70% chance of winning, you will enter “0.30” (because HOU has a 30% chance).
Each competitor will submit their picks for the week before the kickoff of the first game. A Google Docs form for your entries will be stickied on /NFLstatheads. Any games that are missed or screwed up will be considered as if the contestant entered p = 0.5.
Scoring will be based on a “cost function.” A correct pick has cost –log(p). An incorrect pick has cost –log(1-p). Your total cost is the sum of the costs from each game. High scores are bad. (I explain the benefits of this cost function approach below.)
After the last game of the week has been played, everyone’s picks will be made public and a scoreboard will be posted.
Additional rules for bots
Each contestant should give some sort of write-up of their methodology and post it to /NFLstatheads at some point early in the season. In addition to being a fun competition between fans, I envision this as a competition between ways of thinking about football analysis. The success and failure of the different models should provide some insight into which statistical techniques are worthwhile and which are not. And for all of this to happen, everyone needs to know what everyone else did.
The statistical method should be “objective” (free of all subjective human manipulation) from start to finish.
Obviously the entry should be original research. It can be inspired by previous work, but it can’t be copy-pasted.
Any football statistics are fair game to use. Please don’t use the results of other people’s work as a starting point of your own. E.g. Don’t use Las Vegas betting lines or Generic Win Probability from Advanced NFL Stats.
A technical note about the cost function being used The logarithmic cost function has two major advantages:
The expected value of the cost is minimized if your estimate p is equal to the true probability. Therefore, it punishes both overconfidence and underconfidence. Higher and lower values of p both give you high costs. Thus, unlike “confidence point” pick-‘em leagues, this scoring system will force you to accurately assess your confidence levels if you want to win. E(cost) = p_true * -log(p_estimate) + (1-p_true) * -log(1-p_estimate)
Therefore the minimum value of the cost occurs if the estimate of p is equal to the exact value of the true probability.
If you say that a certain outcome is impossible and that event happens, you get cost = infinity, thus losing the entire season. Extreme overconfidence is punished severely. I know my model is going to produce very few confidence estimates above 80% - if yours does much better than that, you better be sure your predictions are actually that good and not just blind overconfidence.
A sample of example costs is provided in the table below.
I'm a pretty active sports bettor and have bet on a few CS:GO matches (with no luck). I had seen lines on Bovada for the CWL last year but never got the chance to bet them. Here are the initial lines for the winner of the event, teams to reach the finals, and one single bet for Team vs. Field...but the only team you can bet on is OpTic. (Meaning this is essentially the same bet as the event winner bet, if you decide to take OpTic, but with worse odds). If I recall correctly, last year Bovada gave action on individual matches, as well. I guess we'll have to wait until the event for those. Personally, the way OpTic has been playing makes me want to take them +150 to win (and perhaps at +135 in the Team vs. Field). However, OpTic at -250 to reach the finals just isn't enough value for me to pull the trigger. Since the bet is about which two teams make the finals, and thus you can win both bets you place on this, I'll likely use the "reach the finals" odds to hedge the OpTic win bet. I think any combination of eUnited at +170, 100T at +200, and Red Reserve at +200 are the best options, but I think Luminosity could potentially be undervalued here at +700 so that looks interesting, too. That being said, who do you have for these? How much would you/are you wagering? What team looks over or undervalued?
Las Vegas oddsmaker makes line on 2020 presidential election Nevada sportsbooks aren’t allowed to take bets on the U.S. presidential election, but South Point oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro announced Vegas Odds And Betting Lines For The 2020 Presidential Election. After a previous unprecedented election cycle that included one of the most jaw-dropping Presidential campaign seasons in history and that has unilaterally redefined politics in America, it would take a lot to shock us at this point. Get real-time scores, betting lines, and betting odds for all your favorite sports. Las Vegas Betting Odds & MLB Expert Predictions Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets. Saturday, July 25, 2020. Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros MLB Sports Betting Odds & Parlay Predictions. Saturday, July 25, 2020. Las Vegas Betting Lines & Free MLB Predictions Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics. Let’s take a look at an imaginary line the way you’d read it off the board sitting in a Vegas sports betting lounge or on the screen at your online book. Let’s imagine a game between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys. Your book’s NFL betting line might look something like this: DAL -7.5-110 -405 NYG +7.5-110 +300 56.5 ov-110
Sports Betting 101 with Steve Stevens - Money Management
VIP Sports Las Vegas 41,732 views. 5:26. Extra: The $3.5 million bet - Duration: ... Sports Betting Tips: Understanding Fake Line Moves (Sharp Money vs Square Money) - Duration: 4:14. Learn how to read Vegas basketball betting lines. Find our how to use over/under, totals and point spread for your basketball betting predictions. ... How To Read Las Vegas Odds Board - Duration ... In this video I show you how to read a Las Vegas sportsbook betting odds board. First time bettors can be intimidated by all of the numbers up on the board, but once you understand what they mean ... The "Sports Betting Whale" who won tens of millions of dollars betting on sports reveals the inside scoop on how the Las Vegas sportsbooks determine and set the lines, odds, and point spreads for ... The VIP Sports Las Vegas podcast features Steve Stevens in a raw and unfiltered conversation. ... How Are Betting Lines Created? ... Sports Betting 101 with Steve Stevens - Las Vegas Sportsbooks ...