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[TIMELINE] Analyzing The Past to Predict the Future - Everything We Should Consider on the Road to GTA VI

[TIMELINE] Analyzing The Past to Predict the Future - Everything We Should Consider on the Road to GTA VI
[QUICK MOD NOTE] This post was originally posted by Lenlfc on GTAforums, original post here. ALL CREDIT GOES TO HIM FOR ALLOWING ME TO DO THIS. It's extremely detailed and extensive, but it also gives a full look at previous leaks and speculation about GTA V, RDR 2, and the upcoming GTA VI. It's well worth your read if you're at all interested in speculation and leaks for GTA VI, considering it has a lot of information about how Rockstar has done things in the past, and how they may do things with GTA VI. It also has all of the confirmed information we have for GTA VI, like everyone has been asking for. Enjoy!
LENLFC will also be updating his original GTAForum's post often when new, reliable information comes out that is worth adding to his timeline.
TL:DR: This is very long. Please don't be mean if you think I went too far. I just wanted to be as detailed as possible, and compile as much evidence and proof as possible, so we can work out the most accurate and likely scenario. I've never done anything like this before. So please be kind.
Hi. So, Red Dead Redemption 2 has come and gone. Feels like forever we waited for it. Hard to believe it released almost 4 months ago. It's that time when many of us will start looking forward to the next Rockstar game. I have been on this site since the first leaks for GTA V popped up online. In that time, I have watched fairly quietly, barely getting involved. I've read a lot, and enjoyed it all, but never actively helped out. I want to warn you all that this post will be pretty lengthy, and as I'm not a regular poster, my formating or writing may not be the best. But I'm a big fan of Rockstar Games, and have a weird fascination with remembering small things. So I wanted to try my best to compile everything we know about how Rockstar go about making their games, what they have done in the past and do some crazy conspiracy theory like deducing to try to predict when, where and how we can find clues to GTA VI, and when they may announce or release it.
Firstly, I'd like to credit and thank Dan Dawkins. Many of you may not know who he is, but long story short, he's a journalist, and back in July 2011 he wrote an article in the magazine PSM3. In the article he predicted many things about GTA V (some correct, some incorrect) he researched all the available data and pooled it together, and used that to speculate about GTA V. That was a massive influence on me growing up, on how to speculate responsibly and use common sense to work out where a game or series may go next. So thank you, Dan!

FACTS

Now, onto the main topic. What do we know about GTA VI? Not a lot. Dan Houser recently said that they're thankful they're not releasing GTA VI while Trump is in office. While he's never actually quoted as saying they won't release it while Trump is in office, I think journalists used that for a catchy headline. But the point remains. GTA is heavily based on British satire of USA. The current political climate makes it very difficult for them to do this. If we take it literally, GTA VI won't release until 2021 or 2025, depending on how long he is in office. Unless I have my dates wrong. I'd be willing to bet they had 2021 in mind. However, my personal take on this was that Dan simply meant "thank god we're not releasing GTA VI in 2018" And knowing it'l take them years to even release their next game, Trump will no longer be President.
We also know Rockstar Games will make another GTA. And that is about it. If there is anything else concrete, that we know, that I have missed please let me know.

THE PAST

GTA V TIMELINE
Here's where we start digging and look to the past, what Rockstar has done before and try our best to work out their timelines and how they go about things. Now, in order to do this, I'd like to begin with GTA V, as that is when Rockstar Games transitioned into the one big game every 5 years, as opposed to the game every year studio.
April 20th 2009 the first ever build for GTA V was created. I'm not sure if this is when development officially began, or just the date of the first build. Either way, I doubt there is much difference. They were busy working on TBoGT at that point, having just released TLaD 2 months prior. This was discovered from the Build Log. I will go into detail on this later. However this wasn't discovered until 2014, I just thought it was worth putting here to stamp the timeline.
The earliest rumors for GTA V began on July 26th 2010, with reports of Rockstar researching locations in and around Hollywood. Rockstar declined to comment on this, saying they don't comment on "rumors and speculation". To this day we still don't know if this was legit, or otherwise. However the game did end up being set in Los Santos. So it was either true or coincidentally correct.
Next came the domain name leaks on February 25th 2011. That date might be off by a couple of days, but the original GTA V Leak Topic has it dated to the 25th. (Fun fact, this is the leak and topic where I signed up to GTAForums!) Very GTA sounding website names. After GTA IV introduced the internet to us, it was no surprise to think GTA V would expand on that, and the domain names registered sounded right out of a GTA game. This was proven true, as the websites did appear in game.
On March 8th 2011 more fuel was added to the GTA V fire, when the codenamed "Rush" casting call was leaked online. Like the website, they sounded like something out of a GTA game.
This was further expanded on the 29th of March when Take Two put out a private casting call, further hinting at development on GTA V being well underway.
October 5th 2011 In an Asked & Answered article, 2 users asked about the next GTA, with Rockstar replying with the following
“When are we going to see a new GTA????? #bestgameever” - received via Twitter“When's the new grand theft auto coming out?” - received via Twitter
Big, big shout to all Grand Theft Auto fans worldwide who we know are anxious to hear about what’s next for the franchise but we don’t have any news at this time.All we can say is, right now, we’re focused on our next upcoming releases which are Max Payne 3 as well as L.A. Noire for PC, Red Dead Redemption Game of the Year Edition and Max Payne for mobile devices. When and if we have anything to report regarding the Grand Theft Auto franchise, you know that we’ll do so here at the Newswire or on our Twitter or Facebook.
And then it happened. GTA V was officially announced on October 25th 2011 at 12pm BST, linked below.
https://twitter.com/RockstarGames/status/128788090969001984?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E128788090969001984&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fgtaforums.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FRockstarGames%2Fstatus%2F128788090969001984%3Fs%3D20
This announcement came only 20 days after saying the above on October 5th 2011
This goes to show that Rockstar can say one thing, then surprise us weeks later.
The first trailer then debuted on November 2nd 2011
Everything past this point, until release I feel is not relevant to this discussion. It is more to do with post announce schedules and marketing, and when to expect news or updates or trailers for an already announced major game. If this topic does well, I could add it, or put it in a spoiler box so it's optional detail. Otherwise the next points worth talking about come into play upon release, and where Rockstar go after this.
September 17th 2013 GTA V finally releases. We rejoice.
October 1st 2013, two weeks after the launch of GTA V GTA Online launches.
This is where it gets interesting and complicated. We know now that their next game was Red Dead Redemption 2. However, Rockstar weren't finished with GTA V. Many people claim that Rockstar stopped caring about their fans and gamers, citing images like these
You can actually pinpoint the year Rockstar discovered microtransactions.
Now, I bring these up, as it is important to understand just how Rockstar now operate. Love it or hate it, but GTA Online has allowed Rockstar to not release games as often. Allowing them to work on one game as Rockstar Studios, where they all work together, instead of separate teams, like Rockstar North (GTA) and Rockstar San Diego (RDR) for example. The income from GTA Online has seemingly allowed them to spend 5 years working on Red Dead Redemption 2, perfecting a masterpiece. Allowing them to make the game they wanted, and allowing them to take all the time necessary to innovate and make a living breathing world even more so than GTA V did.
Some time in January 2014 the GTA V Build Log was found. Apparently it was on the game disc, and dedicated fans dug into the files and found it. I bring this up, as it reveals some key interesting details. such as the date of the first GTA V build/when GTA V development began. This is important as we can use this information later to try to work out when they may start their next project.
Throughout 2014 Rockstar were hard at work developing the PC, PS4 & Xbox One versions of the game. I don't know how much work that would be, but they weren't simple upres versions of the game. They included new features and plenty of big enhancements. The PC version was delayed into 2015 for added polish. And leslie Benzies took a sabbatical on September 1st, for 17 months.
The next key detail to note is from January 2016, I think. Leslie Benzies leaves Rockstar North. I feel this is important to note, as it could have delayed a lot of Rockstars plans, as a lot of staff left with him, Rockstar would go on to deal with a lawsuit which could only be an unnecessary distraction. There was a topic here on GTAForums discussing it. Needless to say the whole situation was pretty shady and the details don't really matter too much.
Rockstar had also planned single player DLC for GTA V, multiple datamines suggested 3 packs, as well as Ash735 on Neogaf confirming this. We can take this with a grain of salt, but if it were made up, then it's a pretty dull and uninteresting thing to make up.
They had also promised Heists for GTA Online, which was quickly becoming very popular. I personally believe (And this is where speculation begins) that the SP DLC was the unfortunate victim in all of this. They HAD to get the next gen versions out, as if you're launching an online game, you can't rely on players sticking with old consoles when the next gen consoles launch only 2 months after GTA Online launches. They had to get Heists out, which were promised before the entire game even released. More so than the SP DLC, which was just a closing line on a Newswire article, albeit multiple times. And development on their next game ramping up, going into full production, combined with the restructuring of Rockstar North due to Leslie Benzies leaving... SP DLC may have been an unfortunate victim.
Article 1
Article 2
Article 3
GTA V launches on PS4 & Xbox One on November 18th 2014
PC version launched on April 14th 2015
Rockstar Games are now done with development on GTA V, now solely focusing on GTA Online updates, in terms of Grand Theft Auto
April 3rd 2014 Thanks to @EVOLUT7ON for bringing this to my attention. In a Q&A with DJ Whoo on BallerStatus, he allegedly reveals he will be in the next GTA, which will be in Liberty City again. BallerStatus. And thanks to iNero for his topic.

RDR2 TIMELINE

August 2013 Roger Clark's first day on set, for Red Dead Redemption 2
Roger Clark: "My first day on the project was in August of 2013. With the context of this particular installment, I was the first to come on, apart from Rob and Ben who worked on the previous chapter."
4th September 2014 Rockstar San Diego start hiring for next gen consoles. They allegedly went on a hiring spree for an upcoming project. Which we would later find out to be Red Dead Redemption 2.
December 11th 2014 Actor Jorge Consejo posts a selfie on Instagram, wearing a typical mocap or performance capture suit. However it doesn't match the one used in GTA V
September 2015, [Original Source] Rockstar started hiring for more jobs. They seem to relate to a stealth based game, but so far they haven't released anything that would indicate what they were hired for.
Then the leaks start happening...
November 29th 2015 An ex Rockstar employee hints that RDR2 is their next project. The infamous “Really, Dumbass. Really? Two“ comment by Danny Ross, on Reddit. Archive of actual post
April 13th 2016 the map for RDR 2 leaks on NeoGaf. This was unprecedented. The map for a huge open world Rockstar Games game has never leaked online 6 month before the game was even announced. Link to the map.
October 18th 2016 Rockstar finally announce Red Dead Redemption 2, after teasing in the days leading up to the 18th.
July 27th 2017 Stuntman, Tim Neff's online resume leaks that he worked on RDR2 and GTA VI. He denied involvement in RDR2, but claimed he worked on GTA V, and that it was a mistake. He also had personal instagram photos from Rockstar San Diego, with captions strongly suggesting he was there for work. He denied it, saying it was just a photo taken outside that anyone could take. He quickly removed them. He was not credited in GTA V, but by RDR2's release he is indeed credited in RDR2.
Friday September 29th 2017 A reddit user posted a thread mentioning a recent leak which had been deleted. I do not know the date that it was originally posted. But it was over a year before the game released. And was entirely accurate. these leaks will serve a purpose later on.
December 25th 2017 GTAForums User @Jabalous brings to our Attention the actor Jorge Consejo, his previously mentioned Instagram selfie, and his CV/Resume. Which mentions min being in GTA 6, playing the role "The Mexican" (Featured).
CGI meaning motion capture work, etc.
In April of 2018, I'm not sure of the date, maybe the 18th? The article has since been removed. But I copied the article into a notepad file. Trustedreviews.com published an article based of a memo and some notes about the game. They claimed to have received this information in August 2017, but didn't post it due to fears it was fake. It wasn't until Rockstar released a screenshot that matched one that they had also received that they decided to publish this information, now believing it to be genuine. Here is an image of the text copy of the article (reddit formatting issues)
November 1st 2018 Rockstar sue TrustedReviews for £1M Essentially proving the leak to be true. Although the game itself proves it to be true, it's interesting that Rockstar sued for that much. Or sued at all.
January 6th 2019 Rockstar start hiring for next generation
Rockstar's career opening page - Credit to @el carlitos for that one!
-----------------------------------------------Unconfirmed Speculation-----------------------------------------------
January 30th (Specific date still debatable) Film Florida have guest Leah Sokolowsky on their podcast. She briefly mentions a recent change in her work
Recently as you're aware we've had a change in the types of productions that are coming to our state. So I've also been very fortunate to get a large client that has hired me to arrange basically site tours and visits. It's uh digital media company. And I've signed an NDA so I can't disclose who it is. But they've been exploring various areas of our state, and of other states in the south east. And I've been planning and arranging those visits for their personnel and that's been kind of a very interesting expansion of what I normally do, as well.
Here's the link to that quote.
It's suggested this is Take Two Interactive/Rockstar Games, as a reddit user claimed on October 6th 2019 scouts were looking around his area, and asked for permission to take photographs of the building. Which was later followed up by a photograph of an alledged document/contract as proof on October 8th 2019
-----------------------------------------------End of Unconfirmed Speculation-----------------------------------------------
February 13th 2019 VP of product development Jeronimo Barrera departs Rockstar Games after 20 years. This might not seem anything significant, but it's one of his quotes that I think it very important.
"If I had stayed at Rockstar it would have been more GTAs, more RDRs and less of this other stuff going on out there right now." While that is nothing concrete. It does indicate that Rockstar will be working on Red Dead and GTA for the foreseeable future. That won't surprise many of us, but it's just a little detail that gives us hope that GTA is next, and not another franchise like Bully, L.A. Noire or Max Payne, for example.
April 18th 2019 a former Rockstar India employee has mention of creating vehicles for GTA V and upcoming GTA 6 in his artstation resume Thanks to ApolloThunder's post.
Now those are the most important details I feel. Now I may have missed some other details people might find important. In August of 2017 the stunt actor Tim Neff was involved in a alleged leak for RDR2 & GTA 6. It was quickly 'debunked' Although many believed there were holes in the methods used to debunk it. And his removal of Instagram photos taken at Rockstar San Diego was suspicious to many users. I do not believe it holds enough water to use it as any evidence. But we can use it to speculate.
July 9th 2019 Jorge Consejo likes and quotes a tweet about him being in GTA 6

Now We Use All This Information to Speculate

The first clues we should look for are reports of Rockstar scouting locations. We know from articles and or interviews that Rockstar take thousands of photographs when creating their worlds, so any reports of Rockstar Staff i researching locations should be a very good indication. However, they can be very secretive.
Same goes for Rockstar or Take Two registering domain names or sending out casting calls. So far we've heard nothing of the sort. again, we don't always hear these things. I don't recall hearing anything about casting for RDR2 at any point between 2012 & 2016.
Combined with the fact that Rockstar only just released RDR2 4 months ago. I think it's pretty safe to sat development on their next game hasn't fully begun yet, or will do very soon. If we look back to the build log for GTA V, they created the first build on April 20th 2009. pretty much one year after GTA IV released. By that logic the first build for GTA VI would have been created in September 2014, right? Well, considering they had to work on the next gen and PC versions for so long. I'd wager they started much, much later. We know that these days Rockstar operate as Rockstar Studios, all working together on one game at a time. But if the NeoGaf user is to be believed, pre production for GTA VI began in 2012, which is actually entirely believable. As Rockstar began work on RDR2 almost immediately after RDR1. "In early 2011, Dan began chatting with Rockstar San Diego about how Red Dead Redemption 2 would look and who the characters would be. Late that summer, he says, he had a “broad outline and rough flow of the game defined.” By fall 2012, his team had completed rough scripts for many of the game’s missions and started doing read-throughs on video conference calls with directors of game play, art design, and animation from Rockstar offices around the world. " Source
Now, unlike Red Dead Redemption, Grand Theft Auto is not a game about specific characters, like RDR is with John and Dutch's gang. So It's safe to say after GTA V, the Housers did not sit down and come up with scripts or ideas for GTA 6 revolving around those characters. But never say never. They could use this as an opportunity to bring back Michael Franklin & Trevor, working of some of the ideas for the Story DLC for GTA V, instead of scrapping it entirely. For the first time ever, GTA could be a direct sequel using the same protagonists. This however, I believe to be incredibly unlikely. But I thought it was worth mentioning.
So, they've finished RDR2. What Are Rockstar doing now? I believe they're hard at work on the PC version of the game. Many people don't believe it will release on PC, citing the fact that RDR1 never released on PC as evidence. I don't believe that is fair, as we know RDR1 was a mess, and was in such a bad state that they were lucky to release it at all. Rumours and alleged leaks stated the game was a coded mess, and they weren't willing to go through all the hassle of porting it to PC. We also know PC games typically have a high paracy rate, and Rockstar aren't fond of spending all that development time and cost on such an effort for little reward. Here's a clip of Lazlow talking about releasing their games on PC, and joking wanting to make their money back first. It's from 2010, right before RDR1 released. I think he was making a joke, but hiding the truth in there. Which leads me to believe that RDR2 could come to PC, but in order to make their money on that, also release it on PS5 & the Next Xbox, like they did for GTA V. Considering the gap between GTA V on PS3 & 360 and GTA V on PC (19 months) we could see a similar gap with RDR2 on PC. If that is the case, we could see a PC release in May 2020. At which point next gen consoles would likely have been announced, assuming Sony repeat their February reveal as they did with PS4. Or soon to be revealed at E3 a month later. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that they re release on Next gen with native 4K on PS5, higher frame rates, or other enhanced features. Next gen consoles will be backwards compatible, but if they want to keep RD Online going, a newer version with higher player counts could be a good option.
Speaking of next gen consoles, until specs are set in stone, I don't think Rockstar will announce anything. Dev Kits are allegedly being sent to some developers right now. Sony first party studios are already working on PS5 games. Guerilla, for example. I'd wager Sony's relationship with Rockstar is a good bet to think they have them, too. So, what does this mean?
Well, let's look at when Rockstar announced RDR2. 18th October 2016. 18 months after the PC release of GTA V, 3 years, 1 month after the initial release of GTA V. Lets assume they stick to a similar pattern, both GTA V & RDR2 were announced in October. It could be a good bet for what month to expect an announcement. However, GTA IV was announced in May 2006, with Peter Moore's infamous Tattoo. So...
Now let's look at when Rockstar started hiring for RDR2, which was September 2014. It took them 2 years to announce their next game. And they had the base map planned out within 19 months. We just don't know when the photo of the map was taken, just when it was leaked to the public (april 2016). But we do know Rockstar always start with the world. For GTA V, that discussion started as GTA IV was wrapping up – almost five years ago – although the latest game has been in full production for just three years.
“It comes from the idea first,” Benzies tells us in his office at the studio.
Where is it going to be set is the first question. Then that defines the missions; you’re doing different things in LA than in New York or Miami. The map and story get worked up together, and the story is a basic flow of how it works out so you can layer the missions in. Source
I think we can safely say that Rockstar already know where the game will be set, and Aaron Garbut is already hard at work at creating a concept of a map. If he hasn't already.
Based of that information, I'd say Rockstar are hiring for their next game, which will be PS5 and Next Xbox exclusive, Likely to be GTA 6, and will need 2 - 3 years of development before they are able to reveal it with a trailer. Putting the game at a 2021 - 22 reveal, with a 2023 - 24 release. I do believe the upcoming generation, and Rockstars desire to outdo themselves every time will only slow them down. Their games take so long to develop, and I can't see them putting out GTA 6 in the same timeframe as GTA V, from GTA IV. More likely to be similar, if not longer than GTA V to RDR2.

The Leaks

Remember when I said the leaks would serve a purpose later on? I find it highly suspicious that Rockstar had leaks as substantial as they had for RDR2, when they never had anything to that level before. They are usually incredibly watertight. So let's speculate as to why...

The Benz.

Isn't it strange how such a long time influential figure at Rockstar North was fired, and then leaks start popping up for their next game? It's no secret that there was more to his firing that we initially thought. Things went really bad between The Benz and The Housers. I think when he left the company, and many of his staff left, too. A lot of disgruntled employees may has decided to spill the beans on their next game out of spite. The entire game map leaking 6 months before the game was even announced, Epilogue spoilers down to finite details such as building a house or birthing a foal? Way too specific, and that's never happened for a Rockstar game before. I just find that suspicious.
So, why is that relevant to GTA 6? Well, it may end up not being relevant at all. But then I remembered the leak from last year, that stated GTA 6 was set in Vice City. Back then, I didn't believe it at all, as it was way too detailed for a game that wasn't even announced, and wouldn't be announced for at least 2 more years. Likely double that. Plus why did they choose The Know? And an anonymous source is always suspicious. But hey, nobody would be dumb enough to give their actual identity if it were legit.
But then I started thinking a while ago, at how detailed the RDR2 leaks were, and maybe, just maybe the person who tipped off The Know was legit, and the info was based of what was in pre production from 2012 [Unofficial Source]. The more I thought about it, I realized that Vice City, with the concept of crossing the border to South America is a simple enough concept that could have been decided upon during pre production (the world is the first thing they decide, remember?)

Why Vice City

2 reasons why it's starting to feel like a likely location. Reason one, GTA Online. They introduced businesses and gunrunning into GTA Online, and a lot of people enjoy that stuff. Vice City would be a great location to create content around that concept. I don't believe Rockstar would pick a location based on what would make Online popular, but after GTA Online's huge popularity after GTA V, they'd be stupid to ignore it. Reason 2 was the quote Dan Houser gave about not releasing GTA 6 during Trumps presidency. Again, I believe it's taken a little out of context, but it's his words about satirising America is what caught my eye.
"Both intense liberal progression and intense conservatism are both very militant, and very angry. It is scary but it’s also strange, and yet both of them seem occasionally to veer towards the absurd," Houser said. "It’s hard to satirize for those reasons. Some of the stuff you see is straightforwardly beyond satire. It would be out of date within two minutes, everything is changing so fast." Source
Then there was this quote from Leslie Benzies, also covered in The Knows video:
IGN Source
Any chance that Vice City might return in a future GTA?
It is always a possibility. There are a few references to the city in our current-gen GTAs so it is part of that HD universe, and it is certainly somewhere we would love to revisit. However Vice City, perhaps more than any other GTA game, was as much about the era as the setting. Miami in the 1980’s is so iconic it would feel strange to revisit the city in a different time period.
exploring grand theft auto vice citys lasting impact on gamer culture with rockstars leslie benzies city cover. Of course at some point we would like to have one big world containing all our cities and let the player fly between them and revisit their favorite areas, and in that context reimagining Vice City would be very interesting.
So according to Rockstar, albeit someone who is no longer at Rockstar, it would be strange to go back to Vice City in a modern day setting. If you combine that with what Dan Houser said about parodying America today, and how difficult that would be, is it possible that the next game could be set in the past? Again, combining those quotes, with alleged leaks, and the possibility for fun and exciting gameplay and Online experiences... Vice City is an incredibly likely setting.
The only problem is GTA 6 going into pre production in 2012. If the location was decided upon then. It would either be a happy coincidence, or they may have changed the location. Or, it never was Vice City, and this speculation is clever, but ultimately wrong.
One key piece of information is the Neogaf user, who allegedly states that it WON'T be Vice City. Citing that production notes going around when he still worked there stated possible locations and concepts. And that it is likely one of the 4 options listed in the quoted thread.
Small town gta - tight stories, scheduled characters, ridiculous levels of ambience, every home interior modelled. Every building enterable. More realism - if your wanted you are on the run for a while.
Vegas 1970s- CASINO?
Somewhere snowy - chicago/detroit
Mexico City
You have to consider that what they may have decided in 2012 changed, due to the popularity of GTA Online. They could have chosen a smaller, more detailed interactive world. But due to Online, decided they needed a larger world. Or the location wasn't right due to modern politics and ability to satarise, etc.
I do think GTA could return to the past eventually. Sam Houser has an incredible knowledge of pop culture, and is very intelligent. It would work well for them to go back to an older setting for a GTA game again. That isn't proof of that, or even a solid reason for them to do a prior setting. His knowledge can be used in any setting, past or present. But it's an interesting piece of information to think about.
Another possibility is Dan's words were as simple as GTA 6 won't release while Trump is in office, and therefore GTA 6 will be set in the present day, but by then the political climate may have settled down, or they think/hope things will be different by then, and what they choose to parody will be easier. i don't know.

How about Las Venturas?

For the past few months, I've been thinking about the possibility of GTA 6 being set in Las Venturas. It's one of the locations mentioned as a possibility by @Ash_735 It's also a location that would be quite large, although not hugely diverse. However creative freedoms could solve that. If they return to a past setting as theorised. Then Las Venturas in the 70's or 80's could be seen as a pretty cool option. Like a lot of people, I'm a fan of Joe Rogan. Recently he had a guest on his podcast, Bob lazar. Whether you believe him or not is irrelevant. But he tells some interesting stories about working near Area 51, and working on alien UFO's. that really got me thinking... Wouldn't that be a perfect location for Rockstar to have some fun with? GTA V and RDR2 both featured UFO easter Eggs. There was a lot of mysteries tied to Mt. Chiuliad and Fort Zancudo. Can you imagine Area 69 returning, and what Rockstar may do with that? Now I fully understand that saying they may do a certain location, based of nothing other than easter eggs is a bit silly, but what else do we have? However, it does tie in with the notes (Vegas 1970's Casino?). Before RDR2 we never believed Rockstar would create a game, and build of a previous games map. After RDR2, we now know it's possible. I'm still not convinced they'd do it with GTA, as the GTA series is always an island, whereas RDR1 was a landlocked location. However, it is possible, however unlikely that they could build of Southern San Andreas and go east to Las venturas.
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MeWe: A trip report

Among the more frequently mentioned G+ alternatives at the Google+ Mass Migration community, and others, is MeWe with over 250 mentions. The site bills itself as "The Next-Gen Social Network" and the "anti-Facebook": "No Ads, No Political Bias, No Spyware. NO BS. It is headed by professed Libertarian CEO Mark Weinstein.
As the site reveals no public user-generated content to non-members, it's necessary to create an account in order to get a full impression. I thought I'd provide an overview based on recent explorations.
This report leads of with background on the company, though readers may find the report and analysis of specific groups on the site of interest.

Leadership

Founder & CEO Mark Weinstein.
Co-Founder & Chief Scientist, Jonathan Wolfe (no longer with company).
Weinstein previously founded SuperFamily and SuperFriends, "at the turn of the millennium". Weinstein's MeWe biography lists articles published by The Mirror (UK), Huffington Post, USA Today, InfoSecurity Magazine, Dark Reading, and the Nation. His media appearances include MarketWatch, PBS, Fox News, and CNN. He's also the author of several personal-success books.
His Crunchbase bio is a repeat of the MeWe content.

Advisory Board

Ownership & Investment

MeWe is the dba of Sgrouples, a private for-profit early-stage venture company based in Los Angeles, though with a Mountain View HQ and mailing address, 11-50 employees, with $10m in funding over five rounds, and a $20m valuation as of 2016.
Sgrouples, Inc., dba MeWe Trust & Safety - Legal Policy c/o Fenwick West 801 California Street Mountain View, CA 94041
Crunchbase Profile.
Founded: 2012 (source)
Secured $1.2M in seed funding in 2014.
2016 valuation: $20m (source]
Backers:
Despite the business address, the company claims to be based in Los Angeles County, California and is described by the Los Angeles Business Journal as a Culver City, CA, company.

Business

Policy

In an August 6, 2018 Twitter post, Weinstein promotes MeWe writing:
Do you have friends still on Facebook? Share this link with them about Facebook wanting their banking information - tell them to move to MeWe now! No Ads. No Spyware. No Political Agenda. No Bias Algorithms. No Shadow Banning. No Facial Recognition.
MeWe provide several policy-related links on the site:
Highlights of these follow.

Privacy

The privacy policy addresses:

Terms of Service

The ToS addresses:
Effective: November 6, 2018.

FAQ

The FAQ addresses:

Values

This emphasises that people are social cratures and private people by right. The service offers the power of self expression under an umbrella of safety. It notes that our innermost thoughts require privacy.
Under "We aspire...":
MeWe is here to empower and enrich your world. We challenge the status quo by making privacy, respect, and safety the foundations of an innovatively designed, easy-to-use social experience.
Totalling 182 words.

Privacy Bill of Rights

A ten-item statement of principles (possibly inspired by another document, it might appear):
  1. You own your personal information & content. It is explicitly not ours.
  2. You will never receive a targeted advertisement or 3rd party content based on what you do or say online. We think that's creepy.
  3. You see every post in timeline order from your friends, family & groups. We do not manipulate, filter, or change the order of your content or what you see.
  4. Permissions & privacy are your rights. You control them.
  5. You control who can access your content.
  6. You control what, if anything, others can see in member searches.
  7. Your privacy means we do not share your personal information with anyone.
  8. Your emojis are for you and your friends. We do not monitor or mine your data.
  9. Your face is your business. We do not use facial recognition technology.
  10. You have the right to delete your account and take your content with you at any time.

Press

There are a few mentions of MeWe in the press, some listed on the company's website, others via web search.

Self-reported articles

The following articles are linked directly from MeWe's Press page:
The page also lists a "Privacy Revolution Required Reading" list of 20 articles all addressing Facebook privacy gaffes in the mainstream press (Wired, TechCrunch, Fortune, Gizmodo, The Guardian, etc.).
There are further self-reported mentions in several of the company's PR releases over the years.

Other mentions

A DuckDuckGo search produces several other press mentions, including:

Technology

This section is a basic rundown of the user-visible site technology.

Mobile Web

The site is not natively accessible from a mobile Web browser as it is overlayed with a promotion for the mobile application instead. Selecting "Desktop View" in most mobile browsers should allow browser-based access.

Mobile App

There are both Android and iOS apps for MeWe. I've used neither of these, though the App store entries note:
Crunchbase cites 209,220 mobile downloads over the past 30 days (via Apptopia), an 80.78% monthly growth rate, from Google Play.

Desktop Web

Either selecting "View Desktop" or navigating with a Desktop browser to https://www.mewe.com your are presented with a registration screen, with the "About", "Privacy Bill of Rights", "MeWe Challenge", and a language selector across the top of the page. Information requested are first and last name, phone or email, and a password. Pseudonymous identities are permitted, though this isn't noted on the login screen. Returning members can use the "Member Log In" button.
The uMatrix Firefox extension reveals no third-party content: all page elements are served from mewe.com, img.mewe.com, cdn.mewe.com, or ws.mewe.com. (In subsequent browsing, you may find third-party plugins from, for example, YouTube, for videos, or Giphy, for animated GIFs.)
The web front-end is nginx. The site uses SSL v3, issued by DigiCert Inc. to Sgrouples, Inc.

Onboarding

The onboarding experience is stark. There is no default content presented. A set of unidentified icons spans the top of the screen, these turn out to be Home, Chats, Groups, Pages, and Events. New users have to, somehow, find groups or people to connect with, and there's little guidance as to how to do this.

Interface

Generally there is a three panel view, with left- and right-hand sidebars of largely navigational or status information, and a central panel with main content. There are also pop-up elements for chats, an omnipresent feature of the site.
Controls display labels on some devices and/or resolutions. Controls do not provide tooltips for navigational aid.

Features

Among the touted features of MeWe are:

Community

A key aspect of any social network is its community. Some of the available or ascertained information on this follows.

Size

Weinstein claims a "million+ following inside MeWe.com" on Twitter.
The largest visible groups appear to have a maximum of around 15,000 members , for "Awesome gifs". "Clean Comedy" rates 13,350, and the largest open political groups, 11,000+ members.
This compares to Google+ which has a staggering, though Android-registrations-inflated 3.3 billion profiles, and 7.9 million communities, though the largest of these come in at under 10 million members. It's likely that MeWe's membership is on the whole more more active than Google+'s, where generally-visible posting activity was limited to just over 9% of all profiles, and the active user base was well under 1% of the total nominal population.

Active Users

MeWe do not publish active users (e.g., MUA / monthly active users) statistics.

Groups

MeWe is principally a group-oriented discussion site -- interactions take place either between individuals or within group contexts. Virtually all discovery is group-oriented. The selection and dynamics of groups on the site will likely strongly affect user experience, so exploring the available groups and their characteristics is of interest.
"MeWe has over 60,000 open groups" according to its FAQ.
The Open groups -- visible to any registered MeWe user, though not to the general public Web -- are browsable, though sections and topics must be expanded to view the contents: an overview isn't immediately accessible. We provide a taste here.
A selection of ten featured topics spans the top of the browser. As I view these, they are:
Specific groups may appear in multiple categories.
The top Groups within these topics have, variously, 15,482, 7,738, 15,482 (dupe), 7,745, 8,223, 8,220, 1,713, 9,527, 2,716, and 1,516 members. Listings scroll at length -- the Music topic has 234 Groups, ranging in size from 5 to 5,738 members, with a median of 59, mean of 311.4, and a 90%ile of 743.5.
Below this is a grid of topics, 122 in all, ranging from Activism to Wellness, and including among them. A selected sample of these topics, with top groups listed members in (parens), follows:
To be clear: whilst I've not included every topic, I've sampled a majority of them above, and listed not an arbitrary selection, but the top few Groups under each topic.

Google+ Groups

The Google Plus expats group seems the most active of these by far.

Political Groups

It's curious that MeWe make a specific point in their FAQ that:
At MeWe we have absolutely no political agenda and we have a very straightforward Terms of Service. MeWe is for all law-abiding people everywhere in the world, regardless of political, ethnic, religious, sexual, and other preferences.
There are 403 political groups on MeWe. I won't list them all here, but the first 100 or so give a pretty clear idea of flavour. Again, membership is in (parentheses). Note that half the total political Groups memberships are in the first 21 groups listed here, the first 6 are 25% of the total.
  1. Donald J. Trump 2016 - Present (11486)
  2. The Conservative's Hangout (8345)
  3. Qanon Follow The White Rabbit (5600)
  4. Drain The Swamp (4978)
  5. Libertarians (4528)
  6. United We Stand Trump2020 (4216)
  7. The Right To Self Defense (3757)
  8. Alternative Media (3711)
  9. Hardcore Conservative Patriots for Trump (3192)
  10. Bastket Of Deplorables4Trump! (3032)
  11. Return of the Republic (2509)
  12. Infowars Chat Room Unofficial (2159)
  13. Donald Trump Our President 2017-2025 (2033)
  14. Berners for Progress (1963)
  15. Sean Hannity Fans (1901)
  16. The American Conservative (1839)
  17. I Am The NRA (1704)
  18. Tucker Carlson Fox News (1645)
  19. We Love Donald Trump (1611)
  20. MAGA - Make America Great Again (1512)
  21. Q (1396)
  22. ClashDaily.com (1384)
  23. news from the front (1337)
  24. Basket of Deplorables (1317)
  25. Payton's Park Bench (1283)
  26. Convention of States (1282)
  27. Britons For Brexit (1186)
  28. MoJo 5.0 Radio (1180)
  29. MeWe Free Press (1119)
  30. The Constitutionally Elite (1110)
  31. Libertarian (1097)
  32. WOMEN FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP (1032)
  33. AMERICANS AGAINST ISIS and OTHER ENEMIES (943)
  34. #WalkAway Campaign (894)
  35. ALEX JONES (877)
  36. The Lion Is Awake ! (854)
  37. We Support Donald Trump! (810)
  38. The Stratosphere Lounge (789)
  39. TRUMP-USA-HANDS OFF OUR PRESIDENT (767)
  40. Official Tea Party USA (749)
  41. Mojo50 Jackholes (739)
  42. Yes Scotland (697)
  43. "WE THE DEPLORABLE" - MOVE ON SNOWFLAKE! (688)
  44. Judge Jeanine Pirro Fans (671)
  45. Anarcho-Capitalism (658)
  46. Ted Cruz for President (650)
  47. No Lapdog Media (647)
  48. Q Chatter (647)
  49. Daily Brexit (636)
  50. Tucker Carlson Fox News (601)
  51. The Trumps Storm Group (600)
  52. QAnon-Patriots WWG1WGA (598)
  53. 100% American (569)
  54. Ladies For Donald Trump (566)
  55. Deep State (560)
  56. In the Name of Liberty (557)
  57. Material Planet (555)
  58. WikiUnderground (555)
  59. Trump NRA Free Speech Patriots on MeWe Gab.ai etc (546)
  60. Magna Carta Group (520)
  61. Constitutional Conservatives (506)
  62. Question Everything (503)
  63. Conspiracy Research (500)
  64. Bill O'Reilly Fans (481)
  65. Conservative Misfit's (479)
  66. Canadian politics (478)
  67. Anarchism (464)
  68. HARDCORE DEPLORABLES (454)
  69. Deplorable (450)
  70. Tampa Bay Trump Club (445)
  71. UK Politics (430)
  72. Bongino Fan Page (429)
  73. Radical Conservatives (429)
  74. RESIST THE RESISTANCE (419)
  75. The Deplorables (409)
  76. America's Freedom Fighters (401)
  77. Politically Incorrect & Proud (399)
  78. CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICA ! (385)
  79. Political satire (383)
  80. RISE OF THE RIGHT (371)
  81. UK Sovereignty,Independence,Democracy -Everlasting (366)
  82. The Patriots Voting Coalition (359)
  83. End The Insanity (349)
  84. Coming American Civil War! (345)
  85. Constitutional Conservatives (343)
  86. United Nations Watch (342)
  87. A Revival Of The Critical Thinking Union (337)
  88. The New Libertarian (335)
  89. Libertarian Party (official ) (333)
  90. DDS United (Duterte Die-hard Supporters) (332)
  91. American Conservative Veterans (331)
  92. Anarchism/Agorism/Voluntaryism (328)
  93. America Needs Donald Trump (326)
  94. The UKIP Debating Society (321)
  95. Coalition For Trump (310)
  96. Egalitarianism (306)
  97. FRIENDS THAT LIKE JILL STEIN AND THE GREEN PARTY (292)
  98. 2nd Amendment (287)
  99. Never Forget #SethRich (286)
  100. Green Party Supporters 2020 (283)
It seems there is relatively little representation from the left wing, or even the centre, of the political spectrum. A case-insensitive match for "liberal" turns up:
Mainstream political parties are little represented, though again, the balance seems skewed searching on "(democrat|republic|gop)":
The terms "left" and "right" provide a few matches, not all strictly political-axis aligned:
Socialism and Communism also warrant a few mentions:
And there are some references to green, laboulabor parties:

Conclusion

Whilst there may not be a political agenda, there does appear to be at least a slight political bias to the site. And a distinctive skew on many other topical subjects.
Those seeking new homes online may wish to take this into account.

Updates

submitted by dredmorbius to plexodus [link] [comments]

So you're going to London to watch the Yankees. A novel, by Jackpot777.

Warning. Great Wall Of Text ahead.
So you've decided to head across the Pond to London for the two game series at the end of June. You're an absolute legend, following your team across an ocean, and we should have a suitcase statue in Monument Park for dedicated people like your good self.
The only problem is, you don't know what you're going to do with yourself. Maybe you already have a game ticket, maybe you're hoping to snag one outside the stadium in the Stratford area of London, maybe you just want to visit London and having the Yankees there gives you an excuse to check things out. But all you have right now is a vague notion that you want to make a memory of a lifetime and the clock is ticking.
You don't want to stick out like a newbie. Thankfully, you've got an old pro helping you out. Fifteen years working on the railway, including working at Kings Cross and St. Pancras stations, and a thorough love of finding out the best way to do anything quick and cheap and easy. Jackpot777 at your service with a brain full of London.
I've broken this down into sections with bold headers. Look for what you need to know, get prepped, get excited… let's shag it, people. Oh, and I'm using a hotel that one person is actually staying at as my examples. Thanks to Fantasysage for that. I already gave him four musical things to find in his own area, four pieces of musical rock & roll history that would take just a short afternoon to do, but if you're near Leicester Square / Piccadilly Circus / Oxford Street and you love music you can check out those yourself too by reading this from my announcement thread.
Yada yada yada, here we go. And apologies for mentioning the iPhone a lot, the examples I'm giving use it because that's what I have.

Getting over there. What do you mean you're waiting for inspiration?

First off, a saying that'll make it sound like you backpacked around the world since you were two months old and this is the norm for you. The best time to book your tickets was four months ago. The second best time is right now.
As we get closer to the date, the less likely you are of getting a flight on the cheap. Even closer still, you're not likely to get a seat at any price. Get onto Kayak or Travelocity and book the flight. Now. Read this section first, book your flights, then come back and read the rest. You're flying to London in summer, you're coming back to America around the 4th of July when SO MANY PEOPLE plan to come back, so if you can go for ten days and return when most of the firework displays and family shindigs are happening you'll save an absolute packet.
Airport time.
If you're able to go from JFK (you may have noticed that every passenger airport in the world has a three letter code), those are probably the cheapest flights. London to JFK is like a cheap pipeline with airlines competing for your money. After that, flights are relatively cheap from Newark (EWR). All those flights will get you either to Heathrow (LHR) which is technically within the London Zones area or London Gatwick (LGW) which is just south (more on those Zones in the TfL section). Right now, round trip flights are around $600 but prices might even creep up if enough of you keep searching for the same dates and same routes. It's all supply and demand, so searching can raise the price. Be wary of that.
If you're in upstate New York or you're a RailRiders fan in the Scranton area, one cheap option is to fly from Stewart (SWF) with a connecting flight at Dublin to London Stansted (STN) which is east of London or London Luton (LTN) which is north of London. That will cost a little more than the previous options, but it's a lot cheaper than flying out of Wilkes-Barre Scranton (AVP) and changing at Detroit or Charlotte or Philly. Drive up I-84 as if you're going to Poughkeepsie for 90 minutes and you're there.
Think of those outside-of-London-Zones airports as being like Newark, by the way. Technically not in the city, not even in the same county, but a short ride on public transport to the middle of everything.
If you can wiggle your departure and return dates, especially because there are going to be a LOT of people wanting to visit family for the 4th or (more probably) the Saturday after when all the fireworks displays are, I heartily recommend it. Use the functions on the websites to compare prices and book accordingly. Here's an example from Kayak of a RailRiders / Yankees fan going on that flight via Dublin and then arriving in either the county of Essex or Bedfordshire (Stansted and Luton airports respectively) and coming back around the 4th. It's actually cheaper to fly back ON the 4th because most people don't want to split the actual holiday with a day of travel. And coming back to surprise the family on the 6th is where the dollars pile up. The tools are available on the travel booking sites. Use them. Figure out of staying an extra day actually saves more than you'd earn working.
OK. You got your flight. Now you want to think about a hotel room or something. Where in London should you stay?
This is a very simplified Tube (the subway system is called the London Underground but locals all call it The Tube) map of central London. There are also above-ground trains run by rail companies, and bus routes, but I'm keeping it simple here. The more astute of you might notice there's a shape to central London that looks like a milk or stubby beer bottle on its side with the yellow line. When the games happen, the stadium is going to be a bit further off to the right of this map, so if you want to still be in the middle of things for the touristy stuff but still have a short-ish journey time to the London Stadium, I recommend staying to the middle or right hand side of this milk bottle based on what your nearest Tube station is.
A more complex version: the British equivalent to Zip Code +4 (the bit across the Gerard Avenue from Yankee Stadium is in the Bronx area of 10452, and the offices at 901 Gerard Avenue are 10452-9992) is called a post code. With the London Stadium, site of the two games, the post code area is E20 (for East London region 20) and the part of "East 20" that has the stadium is 2ST, so their version of the Zip+4 is E20 2ST. Just as with 10452-9992 where the important part is the 10452 bit, the important bit of E20 2ST is the E20 bit. London East postal district 20. So you want to be more in the east than the west, and E20 is in the north part of east London so north of the River Thames is preferable to south. Anywhere with a Central (EC or WC number) is still good. Other places outside of London get postcodes based on a nearby big city (like LS for Leeds of M for Manchester) or the nearest large town (LU for Luton Airport because Luton's the biggest town in the area or CM for Stansted because Chelmsford is the big nearby urban area) but London is big like New York so it gets North and West Central and -- you know what? I'm getting sidetracked. With London post codes, east rather than west and north rather than south for accommodation.
In Fantasysage's case, he's staying in a hotel in W1. Didn't I say east rather than west? I did, but his area of W1D (West 1 D) is right on the border, two minute walk away, from WC2H (West Central 2 H). He got a great deal in Soho just north of Chinatown, close to the lights of Piccadilly Circus (it's like Times Square, there's even an M&M Store nearby but don't go to London just to visit that) in a hotel with great review scores. NW1, W1, and SW1 postcodes are good areas because they're basically joined to the Central codes.
And yes, like with the 212 area code and Zip Code snobbery here, the same thing exists in London too. East End boys and West End girls, as the Pet Shop Boys once sang about. It's good to know a bit about that so you stay in a good area, just like any big city.
This is a lot and we've only just got the flight and hotel room booked. Now what?

Prepare to hit the ground running before you get there. Your smartphone helps SO much (even with no connection)

You probably know that your Verizon or AT&T plan isn't going to just transpose over to a UK network. AT&T has a deal where you can pay $10 a day to use your phone in London, and you're only charged for the day you use it like a traditional cellphone for example, but be aware that your data limit per month is still the same. Personally, I like traveling over there and leaving my iPhone in Airplane Mode so it doesn't ping cellphone towers and you don't inadvertently run up a horrendous bill. What good is that? Well, like in any big city, there's free WiFi all over the place. Fast food places or Starbucks, in your hotel room, some areas of London provide free connection like the N1C area of Kings Cross because Google have an office there (so that means anywhere with a postcode beginning with N1C just became very desirable). There are black phone boxes that are hotspots.
You can arrange to communicate via Facebook Messenger or Skype or iMessage and FaceTime (video or just audio) on an Apple device. If there's some reason for you to remain connected with someone back in the US of A, agree on the method, download the relevant apps, and try it out before you travel to make sure it works for you.
Some people swear by getting a region-specific pre-paid SIM card and popping that in the phone for their stay. It's cheaper than the AT&T option I mentioned earlier: an O2 provider card giving 8GB of data with 2,000 talk minutes and 5,000 texts for a whole month costs less than $30 and you don't have to worry about looking for a WiFi signal. But, like your mother says, put the WiFi on when you get home so you're not eating up all that data watching Fortnite flossing videos or whatever it is you kids do. Get off my lawn.
Apps. By the GODS, there are some great ones. The best one I can recommend is CityMapper for Apple or Android. Every decent travel website and YouTube travel video urges you to get it, and I agree. I used it in London and Paris last year, planned journeys before I got there, and if you're connected to WiFi or decided to connect with the SIM card you bought it'll update travel info in real time.
If you use Google Maps, you can download areas and access them offline. I still have a HUGE area of London saved on my phone and it takes up less than 100MB of space because it's just vectors, just colored lines and a font or two. You don't need a cellphone signal to use them because your phone navigates via orbiting GPS satellites and that uses 0% of your data or cellphone signal. And like any Google map, you can pinch and zoom and search in that area as if you were online.
Also remember that you can store PDFs and other documents on your phone. If you save a PDF map of the entire Tube system, an iPhone puts it in your iBooks. You can store all types of maps that can be enlarged for details in there. In fact, here's a link to one of those maps now. Save it to your iBooks or whatever the other phone equivalents are.
Just take another look at that bigger map. You can still see the milk bottle on its side in the middle, in Zone 1. And you can see the other Zones spreading out like concentric ripples. The Tube lines are color coordinated: the Central Line is always red, the Northern Line is always black, the Piccadilly is always dark blue and the Victoria is light blue.
Now would be a good time to start with how to get around.

Transport for London. That's what TfL stands for.

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ANY AIRPORT EXPRESS TRAIN OPTION. You may see the Gatwick Express can get you to London Victoria in 30 minutes, or the Heathrow Express can get you to London Paddington in 15 minutes or 20 minutes if it’s Terminal 5. And they can. But unless you are specifically going from that airport and your nearest station to your accommodation is the relevant London location, these options are a waste of money. A journey from Heathrow Terminal 5 to Green Park by conventional Underground takes 50 minutes and costs under £15 for that and all your other public transport for the day. The same journey involving the super fast train to Paddington and then changing for the Bakerloo (Brown) and Jubilee (Silver) lines takes two minutes longer and just the Heathrow Express part alone costs £22.00.
You may think about getting a cab from Heathrow to your hotel. It’s £65 one way, almost $85. Don’t be a dozy pillock, that’s the kind of money you could be spending on beer.
You may be thinking of a hire car for the week. Don’t be an even more dozy pillock. Cost of fuel? Parking? Steering wheel on the other side of the car? All the other cars on the other side of your car? Road signs you don’t understand? Road markings that mean you’re not allowed to pull into this intersection, do you know what they look like? Rush hour in a city with nine million residents and millions more commuting in and out, plus a few million more tourists? Good luck with that idea, you’re having a laugh mate. Stick to the buses and tube and trains.
WHEN USING THE ESCALATORS, ALWAYS STAND TO THE RIGHT AND WALK ON THE LEFT. One station tried changing the system for six months in 2016. It nearly led to an overthrow of society as we know it. When someone comes out of their own Personal Tube Bubble to call something a “fresh hell”, you know the system has failed! The experiment was scrapped because, and I am not making this up, it “goes against everything about being British”. Someone else said it went against etiquette and “there was always the danger of people thinking they could stand on the left at other Tube stations - can you imagine?” which is possibly the most British thing I’ve ever heard.
You have all your travel pre-paid before you even fly out, if you have one of the following:
This is because Transport for London (TfL) has been rolling out contactless pay for seven years now. Buses in late 2012, and the rest of the network in 2014. All these things contain a standard type of chip that deals with the payments.
HOWEVER - some people reported problems with trying to use a non-UK card payment to jaunt around. There is a card you can get specially as a travel smartcard. It's called the Oyster Card and there are two types. You can either buy one when you get to London, it's the standard blue one… but I recommend getting the one only Visitors from other nations can get, the Visitor Oyster Card. It makes for a nice souvenir, and you can pay for it with an amount preloaded onto it. That way, you arrive in London and head straight for the public transport, press the card on the sensor and it starts deducting your fares. And there are a few perks with the Visitor version …for example, if you spend £5 ($6.50) in the Beatles Store near Baker Street tube station and show a Visitor Oyster Card, you get a free gift. 15% off your purchase at M&M World. Alright. I give in. Go to the M&M store for half an hour. Treat yo self.
Currency. Forgot about currency. One pound, £1, will cost you around $1.30 or so. The exchange rate fluctuates but right now it's around that. Something costs £10, that's around $13. A Big Mac in a McDonalds (if you must) is £2.69 (that's $3.49, which is actually cheaper than what it costs over here). Something £10 is $13, £50 is $65. Add a third on top to any British price to get a close conversion to how much that is in dollars. And there's very little tipping for service, it's a cultural difference. Visa and MasterCard are accepted everywhere too, but call your card issuer on their number on the back of your card to tell them when you’ll be in London. That way your account won’t be frozen for suspicious transactions when you’re 3,500 miles from home. ApplePay and SamsungPay and GooglePay too because they use the same chips as the cards and it all links back to Visa and MasterCard anyway... those contactless payment terminals are everywhere. I paid for a pub meal in Hertfordshire (just north of London) last year using my iPhone 8 because I have my LLBean Visa card stored as a method of payment. Used it to buy pre-packed sandwiches and a bottle of water at a pharmacy (Boots Pharmacy, the UK version of CVS).
Just don’t expect anyone to take dollars. Any shop that does will give a lousy rate of return. Get maybe £150 in cash for the week for small transactions like buying beers but do most stuff on credit card. Payment protected, and you get the best rate of return. If you have to exchange dollar bills into Pound banknotes and coins over there, go into a high street bank or building society (they’re a little like credit unions, you could say) and ask if they exchange foreign currencies. The exchange rate is better than at a street “Bureau de Change”.
ATMs are everywhere. The locals call them “cash machines” (like the Hard Fi song) or “hole in the wall” (like the eleventh pub’s name in The World’s End). Your bank may charge an additional fee or you may have an account that waives ATM transaction fees worldwide. Ask at your local bank.
That’s money dealt with.
Back to travel. Going back to that large map, and see London and its Zones. Most of the tourist stuff are in Zones 1 and 2. The stadium is near Stratford and Stratford International stations to the east (E20, remember) in Zone 3 and is served by above ground trains and the Central (red) line of the Tube. Heathrow is in Zone 6 on that dark blue (Piccadilly) line to the bottom left in South West London. Gatwick is out of the Zones and is mentioned at the bottom of the map.
When you travel, there is a maximum you will be charged. Once you reach that Daily Cap, every trip after that is effectively free. And the price depends on what Zones you use. The further you travel, the larger the cap for that day. This man suggests buying the Oyster Card in London. You don’t get the shopping perks but you can surrender the hardware on a standard card at the end of your trip and get the £5 fee back, and maybe just load £15 onto it for the first day and then top it up on a regular basis during your stay. And as you see, everyone stares at their phones and has earphones in too. If you do that, you can check your travel plans on your smartphone screen and nobody needs to know you’re a tourist.
If you travel via Heathrow Airport in Zone 6 into the middle of the sideways milk bottle in Zone 1, the most you can charged for that day, Zone 1 to Zone 6, is £12.80.
So let's imagine that day you arrive. You arrive early on a weekday morning on that red eye flight from JFK and start travel before 0930 because you got a flight arriving dead early, and you take the Piccadilly Line regular tube service and get off at Piccadilly Circus station so that's £5.10 charged (your hotel is in the middle of Piccadilly Circus, Leicester Square, and Oxford Circus and the app said that's the shortest walking route). Get to your hotel and they say you can check in before the usual 2pm (or whatever) check in time because there is a room already cleaned that wasn't used last night, and it still feels like six in the morning to you even though it's 11am local time so you set an alarm for 2 hours and grab a quick sleep. Wake up, shower, change of clothing, you connect to the hotel WiFi and Google map somewhere to eat that involves a short Tube ride. There's a pub called The White Lion, it's two stops further up that same dark blue Piccadilly line at Covent Garden (totally in the middle of that milk bottle) and that English guy that writes novels for tourists on the Yankees subreddit said their fish and chips in their upstairs dining area are good and their beer is decent and cheap enough because the pub is owned by a brewery called Nicholson's and they serve their own product (and you want to try a local beer so that's perfect). That trip cost another £2.40 because it's totally within the middle two zones, so you're up to £7.50. You then travel to Kings Cross (Zone 1) after your lunch and slow beer to visit the Harry Potter store on Platform 9 and three quarters so that's another £2.40 so you're up to £9.90. You heard that Camden Market is the place to check out Doc Marten boots like Vinnie Jones wore in Lock Step & Two Smoking Barrels so off to Camden Town tube stop in Zone 2 for another £2.40 which puts you up to £12.30. You see a London double decker bus going to Euston (your PDF map and the CityMapper app show you that's back in Zone 1) and buses are only £1 so you should be up to £13.30… but this first day is capped at £12.80 so the bus only cost you 50p (50 pence. The subdivision of one pound is one hundred pennies, or one hundred pence). The tube back to Piccadilly Circus or Oxford Street or Leicester Square for the hotel is free because you hit your cap.
Just make sure you tap in on a sensor at the start and the end of any journey involving rails, and on a bus you just need to tap in on the sensor at the start of your journey. Tap in, tap out.
The next day you stay totally within Zones 1 and 2. Palace, Westminster, London Dungeon, Baker Street, but never outside the middle. That day caps out at £7.00 so your third trip on the Tube is discounted and anything after that is free.

Travel to the London Stadium. If you have tickets, it'd be a shame not to use them.

On the day you go to the game, you need to travel to the Stratford area of East London in Zone 3. The daily cap for that day, assuming you don't venture further out into Zone 4 and beyond (effectively residential areas) is £8.20. When you get off at either Stratford (regular rail station or Underground station, they're the same thing) or Stratford International from St Pancras International (the six minute train ride on a Eurostar type train), there'll be lots of people helping the fans. The stadium is an Olympic stadium, it's huge. And everyone will be walking to it. It's like following the crowds up River Street if you've never been to Yankee Stadium. The crowd carries you forward.
The stadium is now the home to Premier League team West Ham United so head for the 55,000 seater stadium that says West Ham United on it. Their colors are claret red / light blue / white and their emblem is a shield with two hammers on it, so their nickname is either “The Hammers” or “Irons”. They used to play at the Boleyn Ground just three miles or so away in East 13 but the opportunity came to move into a new already-built stadium starting in 2017 so they took it because their old place dated back to 1904. The old place was demolished and it’s a park now. A bit like the old Yankee Stadium story ten years ago. Here is what it was like for fans of The Hammers when they went to their first home game at the new stadium in 2017. That’s the experience you’ll have.
So you’ve probably figured out how much to load onto the pre-paid Visitor Oyster Card (which you should order soon so it gets delivered before your trip). £12.80 for the day you arrive. £7.00 for any day just doing tourist stuff in Zones 1 and 2. £8.20 for game day. If you’re only going to Heathrow on the final day, another £5.10 for that single journey. Add up the days based on that, come to a total, and pre-order that amount on the Oyster Card ASAP.
This is all part of the transport info, but what do you do with any small amount of credit left on the card when you get to Heathrow for the flight back home? Well, you can check the remaining balance at any time from a machine at the stations and that machine will also refund a balance up to £10 so don’t put TOO much pre-paid on it. But what if you don’t put enough on it? Well, you can use those same machines to top up the card with a few quid more.
Quid is a slang term for pounds, like bucks is slang for dollars. It’s always quid, never quids. Ten quid is thirteen bucks.

Get me to a bar of likeminded fans. The vaguest section here.

Right now, I don't know of any bars or pubs that have said "we're definitely showing the game, and we want as many Yankees fans to come" but that will change. Keep watching YES to see if they mention a place, keep reading the subreddit in case info makes it here. It will. And that's when you make those plans.
If you’re over there, watch ITV News London or BBC London News.
And if we find out anything, I’ll amend the shit out of this section.

General tourist information and how you know more British stuff than you think.

The same rules apply in London as in New York. People that look like they know where they're going don't get accosted by society's more nefarious people. Anyone that looks fifty years old that steps off a Tube train wearing an NYU sweatshirt and a Giants cap may as well paint a huge target on their back as being a potentially easy target. Tourists don't know the place well, they don't know you have to dial 999 for emergency services instead of 911, they're more likely to be carrying around lots of currency they're not naturally comfortable with and more credit cards than the average punter. This woman will set you right on how to blend in. Blending in is always key.
Don't flash cash and cards around. Don't talk at 95 decibels about how new you are and how confusing everything is and how you're totally lost. Generally: don't be a feckless wanker. Be smart, which means be criminally minded (to borrow a line from KRS-One).
Culturally you'll fit right in. Britain and the States share a lot of media, and a lot of that is centered around London and New York. If you or your wife likes Leona Lewis or Adele or Mumford & Sons or Gorillaz songs, they're from the general London area or have members that are so you know that. If you remember Wonderwall by Oasis or Song 2 by Blur or Common People by Pulp, you basically already know of the Britpop music scene of the '90s (which is a major part of the contemporary British psyche). You may already know some slang from Harry Potter films, you may know a few Bond movies and how Austin Powers makes that stuff comical (and Mike Myers is Canadian), Star Wars has had a British and American influence for over 40 years. You may even be able to carry on lengthy conversations with a Londoner about the best moments in Top Gear, Doctor Who, Monty Python, Game Of Thrones, anything starring Idris Elba… all it is when it comes to being there is the small differences. Steak sauce is brown sauce, a truck is a lorry, pants are trousers and so on. Just look at the small language differences as being like a form of slang.

Some stuff can be weird and unexpected. Some nice, some just weird.

The voltage is different. Make sure you have the travel plugs and adaptors you need for the UK. They're at 220-240 volts, 50 Hertz.
There are free newspapers at stations on weekdays. Metro in the morning, Evening Standard in the afternoon. Grab a copy to keep up with the world. I’m sure Metro will have the Yankees - Red Sox games in it the Monday after the games. Grab a copy as a free souvenir.
Washcloths. My wife reminded me of this. You get the usual assortment of of hand towels and bath towels and floor towels, but enough places haven’t had washcloths (or as the British call them: a flannel) that I’m including it. There is a chance your London hotel doesn’t do washcloths and I don’t know why. Pack a cheap washcloth or a shower poof from the dollar store for the trip and leave it in the shower. Usually, hotels only wash towels you leave on the floor because it’s an ecological thing so hang the washcloth in the shower and you’ll be fine.
Temperatures are in Celsius. Quick rough-and-ready conversion that’s super easy and pretty accurate: take the Celsius number, double it, then add thirty. So if it’s going down to 10°C at night, double it to 20 and add 30 to get 50°F (which is actually correct). If they say the high will be 27°C or 27 degrees, double it to 54 and add 30 to get 84°F (27°C is actually closer to 80°F but it’s close enough for you to know it’s short sleeve weather).
Daylight is longer. London is 52 degrees north of the equator, New York is between 40 and 41 degrees north. The Bronx is closer to the equator than the North Pole, but with London it’s the opposite. That means winter days are shorter but summer days are longer because you’re further north in summer. They have daylight savings time (British Summer Time, BST for short) so the birds start their twilight singing at 3.00am or so. I’m not even joking, if the clocks hadn’t been put forward that shit would be 2am local time. Sunrise is at 4.45am the time you’re there. Sunset is 9.20pm. It won’t get totally dark until around 11pm. Look forward to long summery late evenings. I bet you didn’t think astronomy would be in this guide, but if you’re not ready for songbirds “giving it all that” at three in the morning it could be quite an unexpected shock. I promised you lot a comprehensive guide and that’s what you have.
And try actual British Cadbury’s chocolate. I recommend the Cadbury Flake. You’ve not experienced chocolate until you eat a Flake.
You'll do alright. Wait, I typed HOW MUCH?!?
submitted by Jackpot777 to NYYankees [link] [comments]

Quotes

Quotes on climate science, climate policy, clean energy, and what you can do that matters the most. (This 'quotes' page melds into the 'Background' page, boundaries are not distinct.)
On children and climate:
"Our house is still on fire. Your inaction is fueling the flames by the hour. And we are telling you to act as if you loved your children above all else." (g.t., 2020)
"Adults need to stop talking to kids about climate change, and do something about it". (source, age 11)
"[Almost 30 years ago] the IPCC projected future CO₂ levels and warned of potential global warming. in that time, we've cut [only] <5 ppm from that 1992 [business as usual] scenario." (slightly mangled quote; link, with graph)
"more and more [children] understand that when it comes to doing what it takes to avoid future hell-on-Earth scenarios, adults are, on the whole, failing them." (source)
“By failing to address climate change in a meaningful way, we are failing our children, and they know it.” (source)
[Globally(?)] "we have 10 years to do a 55% emissions reduction to have a 50% chance of a +1.5C world" (S.G., source)
"One could view climate change as [the outcome of] a massive spending spree, the end result of humanity spending down its 600-million-year inheritance." (*)
A strategy for what we can do to solve climate change: "taking over the biggest government in the world and making it work to solve this problem." (T.S., source)
For the U.S. government, "If it's not job one, it won't get done" (J.I., source)
Also, about the IPCC 'land' report:
"Climate change requires us to alter the biogeochemical organism that we call the global economy on the fly, in our lifetimes. Such a task should command most of the time and attention of every economist, agriculturalist, investor, executive, and politician—anyone who fancies themselves a leader in the physical workings of the economy."
Quotes on the big picture:
  • "The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing" - Stephen Covey (link)
  • "The climate crisis is the issue to which all the others must somehow bend." (source)
  • "The climate emergency is not an issue, it's an era, and we're only at the beginning of it." (source)
  • "Winning slowly is the same thing as losing." (source; quoted at 9:30 by G.T. here)
  • "We may be the children of this country, but we’re also its parents." (via)
  • "There are no born heroes in this world; only ordinary people who stand up and step forward." (source)
  • "My growing fear is that we will spend so much money on climate adaptation that we won't have any left for mitigation..." (source)
To some:
  • "People listen to you. They are influenced by you. And therefore you have an enormous responsibility. ..." (source, 3:00)
Quotes on climate Science
  • "The climate system is an angry beast, and we are poking it with sticks"
  • "a good analogy? We are as certain that humans are responsible for recent climate change as we are that cigarettes are dangerous to your health." (source)
  • "Some people complain that this is the hottest summer in the last 125 years, but I like to think of it as the coolest summer of the next 125 years!" (source)
  • "Within a few generations ... [humanity] is burning the fossil fuels that slowly accumulated in the earth over the past 500 million years" (climate scientist to president, 1965)
  • Longevity of effects:
    • "“Irreversible on human timescales” is a phrase that ought to spring to mind whenever we hear someone claiming they have a plan to “reverse climate change.”" (source)
    • "about 3/4 of the CO2 will go away in a few centuries, but the rest will remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years" - david archer (source, graph (via)
    • "If you keep emitting CO2 for another ten years, CO2 levels in the atmosphere will increase further for another ten years, and then stay higher for centuries to come. " (source); “The amount of carbon we pump out in the next 50 or 100 years is going to determine what climate humanity will have to live with for essentially most of the [assumed half-million year] rest of the lifetime of our species.” - Raymond Pierrehumbert, 2012, AGU talk
  • Quantity (of emissions, of heat, ...)
    • "There is still no sign of a peak in global emissions" (source) / "We haven’t even succeeded in reversing direction yet. ... Global carbon emissions...were up 1.7 percent in 2018". (source) (the 1st src says 2%)
    • "More than half of all the carbon emissions ever produced in the entire history of humanity have been produced in Taylor Swift’s lifetime." (source)
    • "If you burn a lump of coal, the greenhouse effect from the carbon dioxide released from burning that coal will, over its lifetime in the atmosphere, heat the Earth about 100,000 times more than the thermal energy released from burning that coal." (source, source)
    • "RCP8.5 emissions [trajectory] are not 'business-as-usual' [emissions ('8.5' is worse), ] BUT it's important to note that in Earth System models, the RCP8.5 CO2 concentration pathway can still arise from a lower emissions scenario (eg. SRES A1B) if feedbacks are strong." (source)
  • Sea level:
    • at "a time in which the Earth was two to three degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial era -- sea level was as much as 16 meters higher than the present day." (source (Mallorcan cave))
    • "Because of the Moon's climate, Neil Armstrong's footprint will be there for thousands of years. Because of the Earth's climate, which we are changing fast by burning fossil fuels, both the Johnson & Kennedy space centers are likely to be gone in a century ([from] rising seas)." - (source)
  • In the end, we have two choices: 1, Burn all the carbon because of short-term profit. 2, Leave the carbon in the ground and/or reinsert it into minerals after burning it. The key parameter of the problem is not "How much will we emit before 2100?" The key parameter of the problem is "How much will we emit?" (source)
  • "the only important period of time [in the past temperature record] is the last 10,000 years during which human civilization developed." (source)
  • "A global climate 10 degrees warmer than present is not remotely the same thing as taking the current climate and simply adding 10 degrees everywhere. This is an admittedly widespread misconception, but arguably quite a dangerous one." (source)
  • "When you find places that have experienced [extreme climate change] – and we have – then you learn something else. You learn what every other place will have to prepare for in the future." (source)
  • "The science [of climate disruption] doesn’t mainly speak of ‘great opportunities to create the society we always wanted’. It tells of unspoken human sufferings, which will get worse and worse the longer we delay action..." (source)
Quotes about inactivism and climate complacency
  • "the argumentation about "end of civilization" not resulting from climate change seems narrow. The question is how humanity responds to climate change. It's fairly easy to cause the end of civilization through thermonuclear war, so any increase in tension is unwelcome." (source)
  • "One of the grim realities of climate politics today is that the elites bankrolling climate-denier politicians have made a simple calculation. They aren’t betting that the scientific consensus is wrong. They are betting that the impacts of climate change won’t fall directly on them." (source)
Quotes on Science
  • "it is NOT science's job to persuade, and it's a very grave and consequential category error to think otherwise." (source)
  • "Uncivilized people try to "win" debates. Civilized people try to resolve them. Debate is not a sport." (source)
  • "The purpose of scientific debate is to arrive at the truth. The purpose of political debate is to use such truth as is available to arrive at a workable compromise that solves problems while minimizing injury to those affected by the solution." (source)
Quotes on finance, cost of climate action, capitalism, the economy, how to make money from investing
  • "I can't help you make money in the oil and gas stocks anymore. They seem like a slowly melting ice cube, a wasting asset."— ⁦@jimcramer (source)
  • "Stopping climate change is only expensive compared to an imaginary world where climate change doesn't exist. It's incredibly cheap compared to the actual cost of a 3 degree [C] warmer world." (source)
  • "while those risks and costs [from climate inaction] will fall almost entirely on the younger two-thirds of the population (and future generations), the money from climate destruction is being mostly accumulated by the older third." (source)
  • "'Degrowth' is "the abstinence education of climate policy"" (via)
Quotes on climate communication by scientists:
  • "How will history judge us if we watch the threat unfold..but fail to communicate urgency of acting to avert potential disaster? How would I explain to future children of my 8-year-old daughter that grandfather saw the threat, but didn’t speak up in time? Those are the stakes." (source)
  • "“What’s the use of having developed a science well enough to make predictions if, in the end, all we’re willing to do is stand around and wait for them to come true?” ― F. Sherwood Rowland (source)
  • "If there’s an asteroid hurtling toward the Earth, you want the relevant experts to let us know." (JK, source)
  • "It's very hard dealing with pain and suffering one on one. ... But the suffering that will result from our profession's failure to explain our understanding of our planetary circumstances is far greater than any individual worker sees up close [today]." (source)
  • "If scientists choose not to engage in the public debate, we leave a vacuum that will be filled by those whose agenda is one of short-term self-interest..." (source: nyt)
re the "structural" communications problem of the citizenry wanting to know how to solve climate change, but scientists not being climate policy analysts - "there isn't really a logical home for delivering credible, carefully assessed, accurate information about how we can respond to climate change productively." (video clip)
Quotes on climate Policy: (policies) have moved to the 'Quotes on climate policies' page, for size reasons.
Quotes on...
  • Efficiency vs Electrification
    • "you can't 'efficiency' your way to zero carbon" (griffith, ezrakleinshow (12:40))
  • Adaptation vs. mitigation: (coping with climate change, vs. preventing it)
    • "The cost of adaptation will be immense. $119B for a sea wall around NY will cost every American $300. This addresses just one problem (sea level rise) in one locale (NY).... This [the cost of adaptation] is going to bankrupt us." (thread)
    • "mitigation spending is more egalitarian, more just — everyone on Earth benefits from it — whereas adaptation spending is inevitably local and skewed to those with more wealth and resources." (source)
  • Adaptation:
    • "Adaptation without mitigation is futile." (source)
      • "adaptation alone — building ever-higher walls to keep out the sea and simply turning up the air-conditioning as the outdoors becomes uninhabitable — won’t save us." (source)
      • "climate adaptation is just going to be so expensive and heartbreaking. People are going to fight with each other every step of the way - clawing for safety, and their own preferences among only-bad choices in a world of limited resources." (source)
      • "the majority of the world population cannot adapt to #ClimateChange" (link)
      • "If we try to adapt to a moving target, what we're doing... is just wasting our money" - Gavin Schmidt *
      • “Trying to adapt to the consequences of climate change while continuing to burn fossil fuels is like trying to mop up an overflowing sink while the taps are still running.” (source)
      • "in our rapidly warming, rapidly changing world[,] sea walls and levees will never be high enough or strong enough" (source)
    • "Adaptation measures [which are] responding to (acceptably moderate) projections of change in order to maintain the status quo is not a strategy, it’s a PR play." (source)
Quotes on miscellany:
  • "Calling out BS is not censorship." (source)
  • "Good intentions may not necessarily translate to good policies" (source)
  • "People who avoid plastic straws don't understand how big the world is. People who think humans can't change the Earth's atmosphere don't understand how small the world is." (source) (or rather, how thin the atmosphere is)
  • "Disruption is inevitable. We get to choose the ratio -- disruptions wrought by climate change vs. disruptions wrought by aggressive climate policy -- but that's it. Placid maintenance of the status quo is not an option." (source)
  • "As long as we are reducing carbon on [aka 'cleaning up'] the grid, every single electrical device is getting cleaner throughout its life." (source)
  • "until we mine, manufacture and drive on low carbon energy, EVERY car emits a lot of CO2." (source)
  • On dangerous or otherwise misguided policies, or misguided views: (see also the 'Policies' FAQ and policies quotes)
    • Geoengineering - "the idea of “fixing” the climate by hacking the Earth’s reflection of sunlight is wildly, utterly, howlingly barking mad." (source)
    • "the claim that we can "buy time" to reduce emissions by committing to the future deployment of some combination of as-yet-untested sequestration strategies is...dangerously naive" (source)
    • "Globally, subsidies to fossil fuels were up 11 percent between 2016 and 2017, reaching $300 billion a year"; while "Total investment in renewable energy (not including hydropower) was [down, to] $288.9 billion in 2018 — less than fossil fuel subsidies and an 11 percent decrease from 2017." (source)
  • "The ice caps don't care about systems of oppression..." (source)
Quotes on the need (& potential) for a transition to clean energy and electrification:
  • " Climate change is shaping up to be the biggest catastrophe in human history, and it demands not wishful thinking, but a clear-eyed view of reality and human nature." (source)
  • "This is more like retooling for World War II, except with everyone playing on the same team." - reportedly Saul Griffith of @otherlab
  • "When Franklin D Roosevelt said we would build a historic air force of 185,000 planes to defeat the Nazis, we barely had an airlines industry. We were producing only about 3,000 planes a year. We didn’t know if we could do it, but we knew we had to try. By the end of the second world war, we had produced more than 324,000 military aircraft (in less than five years)." (link) (20+ times faster than prewar)
  • "Anyone who doubts the technological arc of electric cars, look at the arc of cellphones in your own life"; "the most important renewable energy is the power of perseverance" (source, 32m & 34:30)
  • "As long as we are reducing carbon on the grid, every single electrical device is getting cleaner throughout its life." (source)
  • "growth rates [of wind and solar installation] up until now are largely irrelevant. The whole point of growing renewables has been to drive down their cost...What matters is that policies up until now have driven down the cost of solar, wind, and energy storage by more than an order of magnitude...[If] renewables ...drop another factor of 2 or 3 in price – on top of the factor of 10 or more that they’ve fallen already, then we’ll enter a new domain where renewable growth rates aren’t determined by fickle policy. Instead, they’ll be limited only by the pace at which renewables can be deployed. ... " (source) - "solar and wind power had to drop by a factor of nearly 10 in price – from 60 cents / kwh for new electricity to roughly 6 cents / kwh for new electricity – to move from their early days to being competitive for new power. But they only have to drop by another factor of 2 or 3 to move from being competitive for new power to being cheaper than the operating cost of existing coal and gas."
  • ""We know that sustainable energy is the end point. So why are we doing this experiment [of burning fossil fuels]? It's an insane experiment. It's the dumbest experiment in human history." - elon musk. (and a little more from that interview)
  • "Don't cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it."
  • "[For Republicans:] If we really decided to commit the nation in all its might to solving this problem, do you not believe that American ingenuity and American industry could get the job done? " (source)
  • .
Quotes on prioritizing various climate actions
  • "people should prove that we can actually get the CO2 emissions down first, before worrying about whether we are doing enough to get methane emissions down.”" (source)
  • "There isn’t time to convince everyone to adopt a low carbon lifestyle. This implies that intense pressure must remain on regulatory and technical progress." (source) (keyword footprintism)
Quotes on psychology
  • "Actual useful research in persuasion is not coming from academic sources. The real experts in persuasion are the people with a million percent as much data and zero per cent as many regulatory constraints on how to collect and use it." (source)
  • What can motivate climate delayers & deniers: "When your sole definition of who you are is the position you hold, then you will do anything not to lose that sense of who you are.” (source)
Quotes on delaying climate action, and climate delayers
  • On "complexity" - "...."There's plenty of complexity for those of you who like complexity. But we now know, to a fair degree of certainty, that if we keep doing what we're now doing, we will face unthinkable catastrophe... That's the take-home message. (source)
  • "Be suspicious of anyone who argues we should plant a lot of trees, but oppose mandates or taxes to accelerate decarbonization. " (source)
  • Why humanity delays: the fossil fuel industry benefits from delay, it keeps making money. As for human voters: "...we fear the solutions more than we fear the impacts." (source)
  • "1/6 of North Americans are locked in a culture war with physics, and vow to go down fighting." (source)
  • "you can care about it now when you can still do something about it or you can care about it later when you can't." (source)
  • "We look like we're going to hell in a handcart, but, we don't have to. And that is our choice..." - K.Anderson, podcast, at about 21:00
  • "There is no wall high enough to keep out the consequences of inaction on emissions." (source)
  • "climate defeatism is obedience to power." (source) (climate nihilism)
  • "a lot of environmental groups were under the impression that the Republican Party is a creature of business, and that if you can make business allies, you can get Republicans to do something." (source, via); "people...who think about problems scientifically...[have trouble believing] that the climate issue is ideologically polarizing." I softened this quote some, in line with my preferences. Is that legit.?
  • " 2-3 degrees doesn’t feel as dire if you’re used to Fahrenheit." (*)
  • "As Ray Pierrehumbert once told me, it's never too late to do something as long as there's a pound of coal left in the ground that we can choose not to burn." (source)
Quotes on What you can do / Activism
  • "It may be that... the thing we're going to be remembered for will boil down to where we were on this issue" (source)
  • on individual 'footprint' action vs. systemic action:
    • "We need systemic changes that will reduce everyone’s carbon footprint, whether or not they care." (source) (see also the "there isn't time..." quote; keyword footprintism)
    • "... People building cleaner more renewable energy need to drive cars, ride on planes, and heat their houses with gas, because that is what's available to them. Participating in the world as it is does not disqualify you from trying to improve it." (source?)
    • On individual changes -
      • "if only everybody just" arguments have zero merit." (*); "Except when it comes to voting, and then it just takes [over half]"
      • "If everyone does a little, we’ll achieve only a little." (source) (" This “if-everyone” multiplying machine is just a way of making something small sound big. ... it deflects people’s attention towards 25 million minnows instead of ...sharks.")
      • "the actual changes themselves are only there as a catalyst for conversation with others, to try and drive that change more widely...ultimately what we have to deliver, is system level change." - KA (source) (Babbage, Climate Change, 9/18/2019, at about 24:00)
      • "I’m not traveling like this because I want everyone to do so, I’m doing this to send a message that it is impossible to live sustainably today & that needs to change. It needs to become much easier." (Greta Thunberg, source)
      • "social scientists estimate that getting 3 or 4 percent of people involved in a movement is often enough to force systemic change, whereas if they acted solely as consumers that same number would have relatively little effect." (source)
      • "Big oil wants to talk about your carbon footprint [and stay quiet on the forces acting to keep humanity fossil-fuel-addicted or the pathways that work, to move off it to clean energy]" (*)
      • "Demands for individual action paralyse people, thereby preventing the large-scale change we so urgently need. " - "All we need is to create a consensus within society that we should not destroy our home and demand that governments make this their first priority." (source) ( On the (misguided) exhortations to limit your GHG 'footprint' as being the way that you should fight climate change, keep in mind this (link) (individuals' GHG emissions amount to only like 20% of emissions) (calculated for Finland)(does this include consumption?))
      • "In midst of an irreversibly destabilized global climate sometime in the future, will I have a good answer when my son/daughter (or niece/nephew/grandchild) asks, "What did you do about climate change when there was still time to solve the problem?" Personally, I don't want to say, "I recycled and bought a hybrid." " (source) ( "I want to say, 'I voted. I petitioned. I canvassed. I protested. I called my elected official. I tried to raise awareness about the severity of the issue.'" )
    • "Our greatest responsibility is to be good ancestors."-Jonas Salk
    • but - “The answer is not to strive for greater individual perfection, but to ask: who benefits from climate inaction? Whose status is maintained by political inertia? Whose structures render personal efforts insufficient? Take the fight back to politics, where it belongs.” (source) “The idea that ‘the personal is political’ has always made demands that were exceptionally hard to live by. It has become an injunction that until you are living perfectly, according to the values you espouse, you are a hypocrite and an irrelevance.”
    • "My strategy to solve climate change is taking over the biggest government in the world and making it work to solve climate change." (source)
  • "You don't need to understand any climate science beyond these two facts: 1) fossil CO2 accumulates in the environment, 2) the more there is, the worse the future will be. If you understand that, you are qualified to be active about the issue." (source, and thread)
  • [For young engineers:] "there are many ways of contributing toward innovation in the production of clean energy without going off and building [something of heft like] a fusion reactor. Look at the stuff around the things..." (source: what a technologist can do about climate change)
  • (One thing: talk about it.) "a major new study led by Yale researchers finds that just discussing the [climate change] issue with friends and family leads them to learn more facts about the climate crisis, which in turn leads to greater understanding and concern about the issue." (source )
    • But - "Like using reusable containers or recycling or carpooling, talking about climate change can be [just] an individual action. But it will make a much bigger difference if talking about climate isn’t solely an individual action, and if instead institutions work to foster that dialogue." (source)
  • .
Quotes on Urbanism & Transportation have been moved to the 'What cities can do' page) due to hitting size limits on this main 'Quotes' page.
Misc; including quotes on stepping up to the plate
  • “Do you want to give a better world to your children, or a catastrophe?” (source)
  • "Our stewardship of this planet shouldn’t be a partisan matter.” (source)
  • "The way I would prefer to envision climate change is as a major national challenge that we rose to as a national project, and led the world in dealing with, and stood taller because we did it." (source)
  • "We should be scared of the status quo, not [of] climate solutions." (source)
  • "Climate change isn’t an on-off switch. It’s a dial. Our action will determine how bad it will get." (source) (true, unless we hit tipping points)
  • "The climate emergency is not an ancient curse, it's a recent choice." (source) (with graph)
  • "If the average American had the carbon emissions of the average EU citizen, the country’s emissions would fall by 60%." (source) (U.S., presumably.); "The American electricity grid loses two-thirds of all energy produced as waste heat.[and] We discard something like 50% or 60% of all of our food."
  • "What I saw going to [climate] conferences was how hard it really is to get [not just] leaders, but really including most people on this planet, to act in a way that’s going to restrict their own growth, their own desire to use energy." (source: bryan walsh)
  • On the carbon cycle - 'Trees come out of the air' - Feynman
  • "the future with solutions is not scarcity, it is abundance" (source) - this is one view, and, we need to aim for that. But on the other hand, there's this 'big lifestyle changes needed' view. (But on the third hand, "'For every hour you spend cycling, you add one hour to your expected healthy lifespan. For every hour you sit in a car, you subtract an hour.'" (source, (via)) - some very appealing 'lifestyle' images here
The 'Metaphors' section has moved.(link)
submitted by CalClimate to ActOnClimate [link] [comments]

Izumi3682 Archives

'Mirror' analyzes your personality to show dangers of A.I. by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 0 points 1 month ago
Gawd! I hope this thing never judges my face. It's the same reason I will never ever go to a fortune teller. Because she will shit if she is genuine. This all ties into my beliefs about futurology and my own personal future.
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Tau uses AI and blockchain so a stadium of people can understand each and reach enlightened decisions by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
This looks to me like a sort of general step towards the development of a hive mind. You watch what happens when we start implementing things like BMIs (brain machine interface). Hopefully the "Tau" does not become afflicted and turn into unhelpful tau, that confuses and makes understanding more difficult.
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U.S. Military Declares Mandate on AI: “We Want to Be the Threat” by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
You are so amazing! But I still want you read everything I wrote! I have helpfully provided the hub link for your convenience lol!
https://www.reddit.com/useizumi3682/comments/8cy6o5/izumi3682_and_the_world_of_tomorrow/
Is that a metaphor or are you literally brain damaged? As in congenital or was it acquired? You seem to be about ten to fifteen years older than me. I am 58. What I'm trying to say is did you do so much acid it altered your mind permanently? I have been reading that psychedelics may be keys into insight that escapes our banal quotidian minds. Maybe it taps into the very quantum waveform infrastructure that brings about consciousness.
Like I said I study history. And I find it very telling how music changed from 1965 to 1969. In my studies I have observed that every single artist, writer and producer used LSD, Heroin and marijuana. Well except for Geo Martin, so it is claimed. My conclusion is that psychedelics ushered in this new age that began about 1965. Vietnam, technology, and rights were minor adjuncts to new ways of thinking. Both Paul and John stated that they could never have come up with such concepts or ideas in the absence of psychedelics.
I clicked on your link, but I only saw a lot of stuff I could not parse out. I'm interested in what you have to say.
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Weird Paradox Says 2 Losses Equals a Win. And It Could Lead to Fast Quantum Computers. by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
You rock! 8D
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U.S. Military Declares Mandate on AI: “We Want to Be the Threat” by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
link for that please!
I have a further comment. Yes, I understand that my writing style is not the same as your writing style. And that it is clear that your mind occupies a rarefied level of awareness that mine will never know. At least not without some kind of augmentation. But if I get my ideers across, then isn't that good enough. What I am asking is, are you being a snob? Are the thoughts you have so far above mine that mine merit no more consideration than I would consider what my cat thinks about something? Don't take this the wrong way. I am only discussing whether all that I have written in commentary to futurology topics is pointless and that I should just keep my thoughts to myself and not try to second guess thems that is my betters. I have been commenting freely for about 4 years now. Many people like what I write, but some don't. I understand. People have different tastes and outlooks and well, intelligence levels. I am no academic as you have plainly and accurately observed, but I care a lot about what is happening.
You know we could not have had such discussions in the year 2000. Things just moved way too slowly. Today the narrow AI improves by the month, if not the week, if not by the day!
I observe all of these changes and report my take. I love history and I think I am fairly well informed about how things go the way that they do. If my writing is not well structured and seems like some kind of stream of consciousness, well that is my personal quirky way of articulatin' myself. I think I do a pretty good job. Heck you may even come to understand my writing style and think it's not so bad!
Anyway don't worry about me. I will continue to do what I do. You will continue to blow me away. Just wow! And the world will keep on. Well until the AI takes over and extincts the lot of us. lol!
Pro-Tip: If you care what you write about and want to preserve what you write in this sub-reddit, make sure you have a way to save or copy or consolidate what you have written because anything over 1000 posts, be it posts or commentary disappears into a black hole of inaccessibility. I learned the wycked hard way. I lost over 2 years of super important (to me) commentary. If you are smart enough that you know how I can re-access what I lost, I will be in your eternal debt.
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Weird Paradox Says 2 Losses Equals a Win. And It Could Lead to Fast Quantum Computers. by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
If you actually read the stuff I have written, you would see I espoused Roger Penrose's hypothesis more than a year ago. Of course at that time, such thinking would be regarded as "bad science".
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Why Teaching AI to Play Games Is Important by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
I thought humans were teaching a particular AI how to not only play "StarCraft 2", but with the goal of defeating all human comers. But I haven't heard anything about that lately. Are we in for a surprise in 2019?
The last update I am aware of from about a year ago had the AI defeated by the game tutorial AI that teaches humans the basics.
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AI Scours 1.2 Million Appointments to Cut Dreaded Wait at Doctor by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
When the AI, narrow or otherwise can accurately predict your wait time for the doctor, it is "game over" for humans. The variables involved with the complexity of Mrs. Johnson's visit are far and away too much for computing to handle today.
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Weird Paradox Says 2 Losses Equals a Win. And It Could Lead to Fast Quantum Computers. by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
How much faster can a quantum computer be than one that can solve in minutes a problem that would take a classical computer longer than the age of the universe to solve. One that could solve it in a split second?
What a future that awaits us!
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Driverless Cars? After Deadly Accidents, Most Americans Would Rather Take the Bus by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Not me.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, iudico delicata eam ex, ex simul regione eum. Ei sea rebum mucius.
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UK Launches Autonomous Driving Study. BMW Chief Claims Full Self-Driving Will Not Be Permitted by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
I understand the romantic sentiment and honest feeling about this by a few of the major automotive manufacturers, but I think the handwriting is pretty clearly on the wall by this point.
One of the logic errors these automotive manufacturers are making is that this is about cars and driving. It is not. What it's about is the tsunami of AI and robotics that is now beginning to sweep over us. If you think the news articles sound frantic now, just wait to you see what they look like when they are written by narrow AI in about 5 years.
AI is the new electricity. AI is the new oil. AI is the new "Moore's Law". In ten years it is going to be scary how AI runs everything. The implications are utterly staggering.
Right now when I say AI, I mean narrow AI. AI that has no general intelligence whatsoever, but I suspect that due to our inability to think exponentially the AI will probably become AGI in about 10 years or less.
Cars are just one arena where the AI, robotics and automation simply overwhelm. As a final nail in the coffin, all the SDVs are going to be E-SDVs. It is the end of an era. Why so surprised? The horse had a six thousand year run, what chance do internal combustion engines have...
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Van Jones: AI jobs are a route out of poverty for urban youth by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 13 points 1 month ago
This is a noble sentiment, but saying and doing are two very different things. The requirements are an absolute focus on STEM-C curriculum and our schools are sadly lacking in this kind of focus.
I have all kinds of fixes that verge on the fantastical like BMI and machine human intellect boosting, but they are still a good 20 years or so out.
I fear that this will go nowhere and society will continue a slow boil, compounded by financial inequality and technological unemployment in low skilled jobs and vocations. This will likely all come to a head in about 10 years and could result in a violent social upheaval. TL;DR: We would lose. The 1% would win.
Don't think that China (PRC) is unaware of this either. China (PRC) has more honor students, as defined by USA standards, than the USA has students.
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Weaponized drones. Machines that attack on their own. 'That day is going to come' by [deleted] in Futurology


[–]izumi3682 1 point 1 month ago
Here is scary and not so implausible a scenario for that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HipTO_7mUOw
About 3 days ago I purchased a very small drone that fits within my palm that cost only 30 dollars. It supposedly has a camera on it. When I receive it I can tell you more. It may be totally a useless thing or it may be the penetration into truly mass society...
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U.S. Military Declares Mandate on AI: “We Want to Be the Threat” by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
I didn't read it.
Aww yer no fun...
(Tell me when that book is out so I can get me a copy!)
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U.S. Military Declares Mandate on AI: “We Want to Be the Threat” by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Whoa! :O
(but do you think I'm right?)
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U.S. Military Declares Mandate on AI: “We Want to Be the Threat” by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Where is my logical errors?
https://www.reddit.com/useizumi3682/comments/8cy6o5/izumi3682_and_the_world_of_tomorrow/
98% of my links is my writing too. I'd be honored if you took a look! I am just so blown away by what is approaching. Thousands of years of human history and we are going to just omg! in the next 50 years.
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U.S. Military Declares Mandate on AI: “We Want to Be the Threat” by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 0 points 1 month ago
"God darnit, Mr. Wuliheron, you use your tongue prettier than a twenty dollar whore."
With apologies to "Blazing Saddles".
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U.S. Military Declares Mandate on AI: “We Want to Be the Threat” by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] -7 points 1 month ago
See! I said the same thing about that and I was so taken to task for it, but I knew I was right!
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/5bzr97/what_the_trump_win_means_for_tech_science_and/d9staus/
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Put holograms in your home with The Looking Glass display by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 1 month ago
See? My whole VR future I prophesied is gonna come true!
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/7r42h0/vr_is_going_to_be_like_nothing_the_world_has_eve
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Put holograms in your home with The Looking Glass display by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 4 points 1 month ago
Holy mackerel! This is crazy! Are we seeing the birth of 3D television for the 21st century. I've never seen anything like this. Not so easily and simply done I mean.
Think about TV in the year 1939. A five inch screen. Then in 1965 a 20" screen. 1996 a 45" screen. And now today. My screen is 4K and flat 75". In ten years will this hologram business be the new 200", flat screen way to view media. Yes, I think so. I bet it will play well with your VAMR too!
Pfft! Good-bye movie theaters...
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Virtual Reality Has Reached A "Tipping Point." It's Officially Here to Stay. by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 4 points 1 month ago
Oh. It's way more than "here to stay"...
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/7r42h0/vr_is_going_to_be_like_nothing_the_world_has_eve
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How tech's richest plan to save themselves after the apocalypse: Silicon Valley’s elite are hatching plans to escape disaster – and when it comes, they’ll leave the rest of us behind by [deleted] in Futurology


[–]izumi3682 2 points 1 month ago
We are on a steady course of two classes in the USA. Have and have-not. If we don't do something to improve the financial inequality, I see a filter coming in the next ten years. I put it like this with some background as to why it's going to happen.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/8sa5cy/my_commentary_about_this_article_serving_the_2/
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Brookings survey finds only 21 percent willing to ride in a self-driving car by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Today, this morning on the freeway to my place I am temporarily working while my xray machine is being replaced, I encountered three human caused MVAs. One of them caused a backup that I was in for about an hour. Luckily I always leave about an hour and a half early for this other place, to take traffic into account. I just nap out in my car when I arrive with my alarm set, when I arrive early. I'm frighteningly OCD and regimented.
So say about ten years ago in the year 2008 if this sort of thing happened we would just suck it up as part of modern problems. Enough is enough. Because now we have a new path. An incredible, almost unbelievable new path.
Electric, level 5 autonomy self driving vehicles.
Such would be regarded as wild science fiction in the year 2008. But no longer. And I think we as a society should embrace these new transportation methods as fast as we can. Shoot this not even taking into account the 37,000 human lives lost in 2017 in the USA due to human caused MVAs.
We have a better way and it is time to go for it. Sure lots of people will not like giving up their personally owned vehicles, but times are changing rapidly now. The youth that are now about 5 years old do not expect to drive. At all. And because of deep financial societal inequality, I bet subscriptions E-SDVs will take off like a jet! People will vote with their pocketbooks to get rid of manually driven, internal combustion engines. Oh! And that'll make the 'Green' people happy too! Unicorns and rainbows all around.
Watch this space ten years from now...
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How autonomous vehicles might actually make cities more dependent on cars by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Why do people drive into cities? Well there is the museum, and the theater. There are many cultural entertainments that only cities can support. Like concerts and pro football. There are also lots of wonderful places to eat. All good reasons to drive into the city.
But the most likely reason people drive into the city is to go to work. The office, the clinic, the factory.
To me this article is the perfect demonstration of how humans fail to understand just what is actually happening. I see three things that are going to make it less important to go into the city. And in probably less than ten years to boot.
It is AI, robotics and automation taking pretty much all employ. There will still be things that humans must do, but it is about a 75% decrease in traffic going into and out of the city.
It is the VAR that is yet in its early black and white, 1948 television in a box that had a screen about 5 inches in diameter and cost a mint days. The VR is going to replace pretty much anything you used to go to see. And you are going to like it wayyyy better than real life.
It is a sea change coming to how we eat. In the 1960s humans in the USA would go out to eat maybe once a month. Even places like McDonalds. Once, maybe twice a month. Today humans in the USA eat out about 4 to 5 days out of 7. All the time too. All meals. Now in the last ohh I would say 3 years a strange but to me, wonderful new phenomenon has begun. It is starting to be possible to get any food from any eatery or restaurant delivered to you. Restaurants that never in ten million years would have delivered food in say 2010, now deliver food. I don't think this trend is going to fade. I think it is going to take over.
So that is just three ways that there is going to be a lot less cities depending on cars. We want the experience, not the physical location. And nobody is going to be working. Why would they? I would say that 25% of humans in any given city would be absolutely required to physically travel to the city to work. 75% would not. Would not be employed I mean. Hopefully there is "post-scarcity".
All this in about 10 years.
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AI, ML and Big Data popular domains for reskilling among working professionals by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
There is no sanctuary. All of this. Every single bit of this will be taken by AI, robotics and automation within 10 years.
If you don't believe me or think I'm being irrational I can serve you three examples right off the bat.
Four years ago. The year 2014, doesn't seem that long ago, does it? But it is a technological lifetime ago. There was virtually zero GPU based narrow AI. Autonomous vehicle were deemed to be at least 100 years in the future. And robots at the DARPA robotics challenge fell over comically and with human like vulnerability we could oh so easily empathize with. Over and over.
In 2015, "Deepmind" came into existence. Humans no longer compete against computers on "Jeopardy" any longer. We lost that edge to simple computer processing speed in the year 2011. Today the narrow AIs are learning every single one of our video games. From scratch. Bots sound exactly like a human voice on the phone. You just tell your mobile AI assistant what to say. And it takes over from there.
Now we are on the cusp of exa-scale computing, general quantum computing and the 5G to get that massive information out there. Information for the mobiles. Information for the E-SDVs. Information for the IoT.
I tell you that four years from today is going to look like crazy magic compared to today. But why are you surprised? Doesn't the most skeptical authority on AI state that the "technological singularity" is less than 50 years away? The most optimistic put it more around the year 2040. But just what exactly would the world be like in the year 2035? Like magick. There will be AI in everything. There will be human like robots with AI running around. We will probably be well into flying E-SDVs. Probably more than 1/3 of humans will be unemployed. I hope it's good unemployed, not starvation unemployed.
But to think for even a moment that humans can be retrained into some other task or vocation or job is the epitome of human hubris. The AI, robotics and automation are going to take any new employ almost immediately. Why? Because humans are going to make them do that. That's what humans do.
Sure we could employ a million humans digging roadways with spoons for minimum wage, but that is not how humans work. And that might just end up being our undoing. I wonder that as little as ten years from now we don't suffer a violent societal restoration of equilibrium. Like an EF5 tornado of change. Because that is what EF5 tornadoes do. They restore equilibrium to severe atmospheric imbalances, if you take my meaning. Such an upheaval would be bad news for me and most of the rest of us. But I suspect that plenty of humans would make it past that filter just fine. You and me? Long gone.
I never said the technological singularity was going to be safe and effective. Only that it is now inevitable. And if you ask me, I think it is going to be more around the year 2030, than 2045.
I hope we get that BMI (brain-machine interface) up and running soon too. If it was up to me I would put a "Manhattan Project" style priority on the merging of human minds with the processing power of computers. Let the "intelligence explosion" be within our minds, not external where intelligence could even possibly get all "Skynet" on us. And not even on purpose.
Anything that humans can do sitting down at a computer is going to be instantly taken by narrow AI. This is not even taking into account that general AI is also probably going to happen. Or the god forbid EI (emergent intelligence) we might inadvertently bring into existence.
I read the other day that a new species of "Moore's Law" has begun. You can call it umm "Moore's AI Law". The AI is going to grow the same way the computer processing grew from the year 1945 to today. But exponentially increasing narrow AI capability is going to transcend human capabilities in a jiffy. About 10 years I'd give it.
So in the short term. Say the next couple of years we need a negative income tax or some limited UBI. But in ten years we better have a "post-scarcity" world in place if we know what is good for us. More than ten years is just too many variables to accurately predict. Basically it breaks down into good and bad outcomes.
https://www.reddit.com/useizumi3682/comments/8cy6o5/izumi3682_and_the_world_of_tomorrow/
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