How my 2019 spreadbetting tips fared | MoneyWeek

The Normie Playbook: Lacking a Catalyst

The Normie Playbook: Lacking a Catalyst
I'm going to give an honest look at my DD for this week, show you what I see in the macro landscape, and provide insight into how I'll try and make money. Caution, my last play didn't go well:

A Bullish Case

Stock market rallies don't simply end because people wake up one day in mass and decide things are over priced. There's a catalyst. Lacking a catalyst, assuming current assumptions around the COVID-19 recovery hold true, it's fair to expect the market to work higher. Sprinkle in FED action, which while down 89% from it's 3/25 peak, still dumped another $65 billion into the financial system.
Bulls are expecting a quick recovery, and while battered, they haven't been knocked off that position. There's continued discussion around a vaccine, optimism, stage 2 trials, and numerous companies and universities pursuing it. We're north of 300k daily tests, and the positive test rate is declining, states are reopening, we got through Easter, and we found remdesivir effective. P/E is high, but even if you believe that governments are propping equities up, this ponzi scheme still puts US equities at the top, likely to bleed the least and profit the most. It's not to say a dip wasn't warranted, it was just an over-reaction, hope you enjoyed the ride back to appropriate valuations.
Money right now is easy. Interest rates are low, and will remain there, maybe even negative, with a FED heavily accommodating of markets. Liquidity is flowing like rain, banks across the globe are jumping on the QE train. Shorting the market is shorting the governments ability to continue the rally, and as Buffet says, don't bet against America.
Oh, and guess what, Congress is going to hand everyone more money.

A Bearish Case

Despite the optimism, the Fed can't create demand. Consumer spending is not going to come back to where it was. Millions will remain unemployed, the jobs aren't all coming back. The idea of a V shaped recovery is ridiculous, even a U shaped recover is irrational. Given the market expects such a recovery, the theta from news is going to burn bulls, day over day as the recovery doesn't manifest with the expected velocity, gravity of expectations will pull bulls to the ground.
June will see auto delinquencies appear in servicer reports, by end of July extensions 3 month payment extensions run out, auto repossessions will begin again, and the extra unemployment comes to a close. With September comes standard unemployment insurance running out for initial layoffs, followed by the end of our foreclosure moratorium.
Now imagine we never get a vaccine, it's never proved easy for other SARs diseases, why would this one be any different? The market hasn't priced in a significant bounce. States reopening too soon. The US outside NY/NJ/PA still rising in case counts, and people are sick of being quarantined. Oh, and good luck getting the US culture to adopt masks.
The market expects COVID to be beaten, when the reality is it needs to be endured. We've shot most of our stimulus shots, we shot wildly and while some hit, we wasted too much and we will pay in time. This virus will be with us for years, and so will the impacts. The world is heading for a recession, and they'll drag the US right down with them.

My Take

Both cases above have some FUD, but both also have merits.
First, separate Main Street (consumer and production economy) from Wall Street (financial markets), as they are different. The FED can do wonders for financial markets and in turn Wall Street, but it can't manifest demand. Congress can. Stimulus can.
There likely will be another round of stimulus and it'll boost spending, can kicked down the road. Now it may not come until June, but US equities are strong and as long as the assumption holds, so will the near term impact of it's expected arrival. Sure, the house of cards may fall in time, but what's going to bring it down? We lack a clear short term catalyst.
The bulls ate more straw off our camel's back than bears threw on. States are reopening, there's talk of more stimulus, curves are flattening, positive treatments, vaccine's progressing, and the market is recovering. The bearish news is the unknown, the whispers in the wind, we'll see in two weeks, wait until September, and the reality that so much is wrong with Main Street, that things can't be this positive with Wall Street. Can't say they're wrong, but they don't weigh as much. The market's priced in awful Q2 results, with no guidance, and a market that by it's nature wants to rise, there's little besides whispers to hold it down.

In Search of a Catalyst

So what could bring what we feel, and the equity market into better alignment? We need a catalyst, some options:

  • Consumer Spending - Eventually, Wall Street and the financial market is still tied to Main Street and the need for production via demand from a consumption economy. If unemployment remains low, and wages decrease, you can throw stimulus at it, but spending will drop. As spending drops, the volume of decline, if severe, can open up a world of hurt for equities as guidance and P/E fall as a reaction.
  • Bankruptcies and Defaults - Governments can solve liquidity issues and prop up prices, but good luck fixing the solvency of a business when margins crash due to lack of spending and debts exceed the ability for business (or people) to pay them. Less hoarding cash by businesses (profitable for financial institutions), more drawing down (cash crunch), more borrowing. Add to that regulatory tightening for banks post 2008 and minimum levels required will strain them further. All this can create a rush to hoard cash, which will restart a massive equity outflow. The challenge is, I don't see this coming near term, even if you believe it is coming.
  • The Dollar - The dollar is the standard of the world, but that's not always great, especially when supply causes issues. When you have massive debt that results in bankruptcies, the money supply starts to dwindle as unemployment ramps, confidence fades, money gets hoarded, and deflation sets in. This unavailability of dollars is a huge risk. Currencies are getting crushed by the dollar, negative interest rates could become a trigger of insolvency, an outflow of equities to generate cash, and a massive crash as a result.
  • Significant COVID Resurgence - Obviously, anything approaching a country wide lock down in the US will send markets back to their knees.
  • Guidance - As the recovery comes, guidance will return. More than half of Wall Street has pulled guidance, less than a quarter are expected to offer full year guidance, and analysts are flying blind. As that spigot turns back on, the reality of impacts could be more bearish than expected similar to how we saw with Q1 under-performing. CEO's tapering FY21 expectations, discussing reduced consumer sentiment, shifts in culture, and a recovery that carries deep into 2022 could be enough to tip companies to truer valuations.
  • Reality - As all of the above hit in less severe degrees, there is the sum of parts which becomes significant enough that equities fall, perhaps not at an accelerated pitch, but fall significantly all the same.
None of the above are assured. There is an ever increasing reality that this market has a bottom. I struggle to comprehend that at times, and there are so many threads to pull that can crumble things. But perhaps the FED is able to unwind QE without impact, perhaps the dollar's global position is the strength needed for the US to recover faster despite being hit harder. Perhaps.
Right now, my sentiment is short term bull. Medium term uncertain. Long term bear. Unclear on if we've found bottom. This past week has trended bullish across the board.

The Next Play

The only thing this weekend tells me is: be patient. It's unclear our direction, even in the near term. I could make a case in either direction. This week, is going to be a short term week. I'll avoid holding overnight, avoid going long (barring very clear signals), and will play the swings (up or down) as my TA dictates.
I like to end "plays" when a theme shifts, it helps me avoid chasing losses, so that's what I'm doing and I now consider my prior play done, and failed. I've allocated another $5000 to a new play, I'll call this play "Patiently Waiting". I expect most positions this week to be smaller, in the $500 to $1000 range, in and out, and I'll be surprised if I fully deploy my allocated capital at one time.
I don't have a planned entry. I doubt I do anything before noon on Monday, if Monday at all. I'll create a shorter post once I find my entry, and will track critical TA for the week as well as the profitability of the play in there.

TLDR

There's a bull case, there's a bear case, the bull's had a stronger week. Many links, much news. No clear TA giving confidence in a position, will take short term day trades while waiting for clarity to emerge, will add a post later to track how much I lose.

Updates

5/12 @ 7:00 : I said I'd make a new post when I found a move, but also said I didn't think I'd do much Monday. I ended up not doing anything Monday.
Wedge forming
We saw a major wedge break on the 23rd of April. As it's downside break failed, a new wedge started forming, which lead to my exit from my prior play. The wedge has continued to hold since. I hesitate to trade it yet, but it's a converging indicator along with the .618 FIB retracement, you can see the two together formed a strong resistance to the upward movement on the 8th and 11th, forming a double top. The wedge says it's time to retest the bottom support, and in theory we should see movement downward today into tomorrow.
I'm not planning to play it, but you could enter some 5/15 290p if you see it bounce top of wedge today. You'd need to exit by tomorrow at latest, exit by EOD may be the best play, really depends on where it goes.
5/13 @ 7:00 : Bummer. Life got in the way of about a 200% gain trade, would have opened around 1.3 and closed north of 4 on a 5/15 290p. I didn't get to play it. The wedge was strengthened by yesterday's movement:
SPY this morning, 200d EMA on 1 HR interval acting as support
ES and the same wedge
Above you'll see SPY and a slight dip out of wedge, open will see us right back in. ES never broke wedge due to lower lows on 5/4. It's a better than average bet we stay in wedge today, which gives us a 6 point 287 to 293 range. SPY closes with support at 287 in wedge, yet on the ES, the wedge supports at 282, truth might be somewhere in the middle.
If we open 286.5 to 287 range, I'll enter a 3-4 contract position of 288c. Be mindful, everyone thinks the FED buying ETFs is a tailwind, I see it as a short term headwind given the outflow of equities to the newfound safety in those bonds as a result. But that's a macro view, and this week, I'm intraday.
5/14 @ 7:00 : Let's start with unemployment. The estimate for claims this week is 2.7m, the smallest gain in 8 weeks, but still pushing us to over 35 million unemployed since early March. Some estimates have ~5m people returning to work in the past few weeks, but the flow is still higher towards layoffs. They've been button on of late with estimates, I expect them +/- 250k, anything with a 2 in the front isn't going to move the needle.
As to market direction ...
.5 FIB Supporting
Bears couldn't break the .5 FIB, it held back on 5/4 and it held yesterday, though saw 15% more volume this go and was a deeper cut at breaking. We have had two straight large red days, we bounced off a support line, and are in oversold territory (that indicator flashed literally right as we bounced off the FIB, trended down since).
A really nice bear case would see us retest the FIB, break it, and thus the neckline, forming a really nice head and shoulders from the 4/5 time frame. I don't see it as likely, but breaking the 280-279 churn sees us down towards 272-273.
Don't trade this as a prediction, lazily drawn example.
A more likely scenario is we track the 5/4 bounce, but don't bounce as high, before regrouping to retest the FIB once more.
Our rising channel from the bottom.
We've been in a rising channel for some time, quickly bounced into the churn zone, decided we were bullish, and started tracking the upper segment with support holding all the while. Of late we're fading, and there are signs it's time to give our supports a good test. The natural rise in the channel paired with fading momentum could cause us to naturally coil for a while before enough energy returns for a strong move.
I'll be watching today, might look to enter a 5/15 283c position, not something that would look to track the full height of the rebound, rather the initial velocity and bounce, which should occur today into AH assuming we confirm that as our direction.
5/14 @ 7:30 : On 5/12 we saw the wedge, and thought it's likely it bounces off the top and test support. On 5/13 it did just that. On 5/14 we expected a bounce off the .5 FIB, and that's what we got:
Blue are yesterday's expectations, green what we got. Don't trade that second bounce yet.
5/4's bounce was 115 points, current was 96. The 5/4 pullback was 68 points or 54% of bounce, current is 37 points or 39% of bounce (though still forming, assuming 2824 holds as support). 5/4's continuation bounce was 121 points or 105%, let's assume we get 83% of that bounce (same as initial comparatively), that would see us to about 2924. You'll notice that aligns with my hastily drawn bounce chart yesterday.
If gravity is taking hold, you'd expect our second bounce on the second test of the FIB to be smaller, the second dip could go either way:
  • Smaller: 2824 holds as support. We got a smaller initial bounce, a smaller still dip, and likely a smaller still second bounce, perhaps towards 286-292 range.
  • Bigger: If our second dip breaks 2824, I'd expect us to retest the .5 FIB. If that were to happen, we're really putting a beating on that FIB level, it's not proving as oversold as it was, and each test weakens it further. We could bounce right off it, or the really bear case bursts through it before bouncing.
There are a lot of scenarios here. I can't make a call. I can say that you can see gravity in the charts. We weren't as oversold on this FIB test as we were on the 5/4 test. We didn't rise as high into overbought territory this time before turning back down. I can see downward momentum building.
A head and shoulders that I don't quite believe in.
There's a weak head and shoulders that strengthens with a downturn. I don't put much stock in it, but fun to watch anyways. For whatever reason, I just can't get on board with a really bearish short term outlook.
Our general channel
Instead, my gut tells me we stay in this rising channel, trending towards the middle chop zone. That leaves the market very sideways, with energy continuing to coil, for what could then break either direction, though which my gut says breaks downward. Feels like a roller coaster just being released after riding up, yet we're in the front car, and the back car hasn't been set free.
Possible plays: Day trade scalping ... Wait for us to bottom, into calls for rebound ... AAPL calls during rebound ... or given 2824 doesn't seem to have held (for now) go permabear and jump into puts! I'm probably staying cash today. If I had the time, I'd wait for the dip to bottom, then day trade scalp the upward momentum until it stalls (which is the same thing I did yesterday).
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A Resource List (Youtube, Twitter, Web, Books)

A Resource List (Youtube, Twitter, Web, Books)
If you would like to be considered for this list, please contact me. We love lesser-known quality educators. No solicitation, please.

https://preview.redd.it/ge1ryrfxkmb51.png?width=157&format=png&auto=webp&s=9fa8bc63cfbe30d4c2db72305ff59fd734d7fdd6
Trendspider Automated Charting, Scanning, Alerts My favorite platform

Books Author Subject
Market Mind Games Denise Shull Trading Psychology
The Alpha Masters Maneet Ahuja Interviews
Market Wizards Jack D. Schwager Interviews
The New Market Wizards Jack D. Schwager Interviews
One Up On Wall Street Peter Lynch Trading Theory
A Man For All Markets Edward O. Thorp From Vegas to Wall Street
Trading In The Zone Mark Douglas Master Your Emotions
Fibonacci Trading Carolyn Broden She is the Fibonacci Queen
How to Make Money In Stocks William J. O'Neil Trading Theory
Trend Trading For Dummies Barry Burns Trend Trading 101
Bollinger on Bollinger Bands John Bollinger No One Better on BB
Options Volatility and Pricing Sheldon Natenberg The Options Bible
The Options Playbook Brian Obery Options Theory
Harmonic Trading Scott Carney One of my Heros
Candlestick Charting Explained Gregory Morris Candlestick Encyclopdia
12 Rules for Life Jordan Peterson Get Your Life In Order
Limitless Jim Quick Memory Techniques
Thinking Fast and Slow Farrar, Straus and Giroux Learn How You Learn Best


Twitter People I Follow
@Alphatrends Brian Shannon, CMT #AVWAP
@TrendSpider Charts, Videos
@TipRanks Trade Ideas
@MWebster1970 Investor's Business Daily LMA
@KRose_TDA TD Ameritrade CMT Free TOS Scans & Indicators
@BadCharts1 Commodities
@TradeHawk News
@JerryCap News
@Guv999 Low Float
@HarmonicTrader Harmonics
@TMLTraders True Market Leaders #TML
#TheStrat @RobInTheBLack @ssabatino84 @chuckinfones @QaimarQ @WeeklyStockChar https://bit.ly/2ZGHjHS https://ggle.io/3DBR
@Couzin_Vinny Investing
@FinTwitWisdom Investing
@LongShortGame Price Action Game
@Duckman1717 Investing
@saxen_puru Investing
@Ray_TL Investing
@Scot1andT Investing
@LiveTradePro Investing
@StockAuthority Investing
@TradeSmartStocks Investing
@Cybercash28 Investing
@Ripster47 Investing
@FinPsychCenter Financial Emotional Support

Youtube

ThinkOrSwim Resources


Websites

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Here is u/madrigalaxy’s post consolidating the answers from Lorin’s stop-by yesterday

hey everyone! thanks again for joining earlier :)
compiled all the questions and answers from a bit ago - they are below!! if you have any other questions or thoughts you were hoping to get a response to, feel free to drop them here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/BassLoveHere/permalink/619658425321297/
hope yall have a great weekend 💗 and enjoy the new tunes!!
Alex: Bro this book reading list is such a good idea!!!
Lo Fi: are you familiar with any of the three titles? got one in mind in particular? :)
Alex: I am going to check out how to be an antiracist. I want to arm myself with more knowledge and perspective to fight this BS head on
Ashley: Hi Lorin!!!!
Lo Fi: oh HAI
Phillip: Thank you for the Music and the Love and respect you put out. It really changes so many people's lives. Keep doing you and ignore the haters. I don't agree with every single thing you put out politically but that doesn't even matter. I love you <3
Lo Fi: i also do not agree with every single thing i put out politically :) my mind is always changing and always seeking to grow and learn... but i'm glad that you feel it - mUCH LOVE TO YOU HOLMZ
Madeleine: Do you think New Years Eve will be coming around and if so can the donation drive be oriented towards the BLM movement??
Lo Fi: truly no idea if we will get to enjoy live events this year... if our society was more altruistic, conscientous, and socially responsible we could have conquered this months ago, and then HELL YAAAAA new years eve would be ON.... like in New Zeland, they are fuckin BACK ON..... but our country has mishandled this crisis and made it so much worse, so i just truly dont know. hope you and yours are safe and sound though M!
Michael: Thank you so much for the album!!!
Lo Fi: SMOOCHES!
Liz: Lorin I love you! And after hearing random acts of kindness I am going to try to incorporate more into my life
Lo Fi: to be honest its literally one of my favorite activities in the universe... it's what i like to do for FUN :) if you get the chance [and if u fux wit subtitles] watch the movie Amelie... that movie always makes me think about how truly FUN it is to spend your time being kind to others :)
Drew: hi lorin i miss you a lot, thanks for everything you do for us! wondering how you deal with constant trolls that like your music but support everything you stand against? You seem very patient and poised while also being very passionate about social issues and as a long time fan I commend your consistency & the way you use your platform to address injustice. Much love to you ️
Lo Fi: DREW!!!!! this topic is SO important and so pervasive, i am gonna try and organize my thoughts and i will attempt to address it in the future because there is just so much to say about how to navigate online culture in a productive, constructive way. And it's not just online... the fact is that HUMAN BEINGS ARE ALLLLLL prone to being frustrated, rude, short tempered, trivial, taking things personally, over-reacting, or reacting before they think, or communicating carlessly [myself too, and im sure you as well]....
we ALL have our lame moments where we lose our temper, get stuck in traffic, or endure something frustrating and we all have non-constrcutive outbursts, but online its just so much worse... so finding constructive ways to navigate this is a HUGE endeavor.
  1. i am reading a book called Nonviolent Communication, which is helping with some insights
  2. with so much misinformation [innaccurate info] and so much DISinformation [intentionally misleading innaccurate info] it is so fucking imperative that we all are careful about whose words/comments we read or take in... for me i am rarely online, but when i am i simply NEVER read comments. There is no way i will subject myself to just any random bot or troll or mean person with some insane opinion... i wont let them derail me and i wont let them pollute my mind
  3. its all about FILTERS... which is something i will try and address later, but essentially identifying sources of CONFIRMED ACCURATE CREDIBILITY, and making THOSE the voices your receive and allow into your mind. and simply not allowing the trolls access.
much love
Caleb: I know you haven't had any spare time in the last decade +, but have you ever thought about writing a book yourself?
Lo Fi: always thought of it, but to be honest i really ddont want any attention to myself, i dont really even feel that comfortable online here talking about "i" and "me"...its weird. i have just been immensely affected by all the energy and attention over the years...and the last thing i want to be is the center of attention... id rather highlight OTHER PEOPLE who have incredible thoughts to share and amplify their voices :)
Tyler: Keep speaking the truth and being political. We need more of that. No matter what people comment.
Lo Fi: like Michael Franti said - SPEAK OUT LOUD AND PROUD just never read the comments :)
Johnny: How are you feeling brother beautiful album first official one since I starting following in 2016 amazing
Lo Fi: so happy you enjoying it :))))) like i said it felt HELLA weird to release music right now, but im glad it can bring joy to others :)
Kaitlyn: Got deep respect for you man. The new album is incredible also ️🧡
Lo Fi: back atcha!
Jacob: Hope you've been enjoying time for yourself this 2020! "All colors" is AMAZING!
Lo Fi: not yet haha :) but yah man, i feel SO LUCKY [i believe WE ALL ARE SO LUCKY...if you own an iphone or a laptop you are LUCKY] and so i just feel motivated to give :)
Chris: With the world changing is there any promises for a album about fighting for what’s right in the world? I know you can get political sometimes and I love that you take a stand with your music!!!
Lo Fi: i mean... i think i just did that? we spent 2 weeks straight GOING IN on political theory and activism, then released 15 songs [with themese and messages like Kindness, All Colors, or the protest song "Skin on the drum"] so i personally feel like i did that... and dont really feel like making a 15 song Bernie Sanders Rap album :)but truly i am just more inspired to be a part of social change than to make music now... i hope i can inspire others, amplify positive voices, and do whatever i can to help
THAT SAID!!! i been working with the nonprofit and we are planning a lot of interactive engagements for the election :)
LOVE YOU CHRIS!
Keri: Aloha! Thank you for sharing your views and perspective. Also, for such an awesome opportunity such as the 1000 Books.
What is something you think we can do moving forward? Progressively. Positively.
Lo Fi: the list is LONG! how about immediately hit pause on what you are doing, take stock of all your blessings, all the ways your are lucky and privileged, and think about how you can put those privileges to work, ...how you can give back?
in terms of racism: JUST BE ANTI RACIST FOREVER. :)
Keri i really hope you take us up on the book offer! :) we are taking all the money from the album pre-orders and literally buying people books about how they can help. if you read one of the books you can share it with friends? i hope it helps :)
Emma: I’m going through a really hard time right now, and your music has helped me so much just in the past day. It has given me hope, and optimism for our future. It has reminded me of all the love in our community and how grateful I am to be a part of it. Thank you so much Lorin for everything you do and how active you’ve been in helping and speaking out against injustice in our community during this tragic time. ️
Lo Fi: FEEL THAT EMMA!!!!! i feel like everyone has been going through it [i have personally been STRUGGLING so hard] but i do want to say if you feel like it's getting serious or overwhelming, please reach out to your close friends and family and IF POSSIBLE, i just SO SO SO SO SO reccomend therapy... a very simple and easy way to do this is with Better Help... they can pair you with a therapist and you can just text and chat with them freely. it's not about a psychiatristwho gives meds, its about a trained therapist who shares advice, insight, and encouragement. i hope you feel better! :)
Jose: Hey Lo just wanted to tell you how much I appreciate everything you’ve done for the scene, your music just calms me down and balances me. God speed
Lo Fi: SPOD GEED!!!! :) much love jose! :)
Malanka: Not a question but more a FUCK YEAH to doing what you do, and BEING an activist and making it a point to do so, even though you're a "music artist". Artists change the fucking world man, and I'm so darn proud of the example you set. Fuck the haters. Fuck the people that tell you to stick to the music (lol, as if they would change you anyway) stick to being YOU <3 <3 <3
Lo Fi: LOVE YOU !
Ria: Thank you for the continued solidarity with black folks. This scene has not always been the most welcoming but BNF is always love ️
Lo Fi: it is literally not even anything you should thank me for, i will always have the deepest respect for victims of prejudice and injustice, and wholeheartedly stand in solidarity with you and with everyone... i literally CANNOT WAIT for our society to evolve to a place where skin color is as irrelevant as hair color [there is an amazing author Thomas Chatterton Williams who you should check out]
SO MUCH LOVE TO YOU! ALWAYS! :)
Kyle: as someone with a life threatening illness, i have been pretty much cut out of all interaction with people as i lock myself down. your music has been the light in the tunnel for me. thank you for everything you do 🖤
Lo Fi: damn Kyle: sendig you all the love in the world!!!
Oliver: You heard the new Halogenix EP?
Lo Fi: have not listened to anything in eons [and i fuckin LOVE Halogenix] but stopped taking in musical input around April, and then in June stopped even THINKING about music... gonna enjoy a big break from music, and when i come back i bet there will be so much good stuff to discover!
Hannah: Hi Lorin, thank you for this amazing new album and everything else!! I am wrapping up a PhD in Science Education, but I sadly have never read Sapiens before. I feel like this book could give me a lot of insight into how we can better communicate science and the deep story of how we humans have arrived to where we are. I’m wondering what is something you took away from this book???...excited to dig deep
Lo Fi: HELL YAH!!!! congrats on your studies and YES i truly reccomend that book... i honestly got CHILLS when reading about our evolution [biological, cultural, philosophical] and it shared fascinating perspectives which i had not considered until i viewed our species from this vantage point. SO EXCITED FOR YOU TO READ :)
Kelsi: What do you think we can do in the music industry to progress sustainably towards racial equity?
Lo Fi: i am certainly not an expert on anything but my gut reaction is that i am not limited to thinking about specific industries,but rather to the ENTIRE SOCIETY AS A WHOLE... the government, the constitution, the economy, reparations, like LITERALLY RESETTING THIS ENTIRE SOCIETY to make up for the immense atrocity. dude READ "A People's History of the United States"! :)
Michael: You are the man lo thank you for sharing your words of wisdom. I do have to admit that some of the thing you say and share with us at least me brings me immense joy and peace during times likes these. It reminds me that yes we are all going thru some tuff times but at the end it will get better and everything will be fine. ONCE AGAIN THANK YOU SO MUCH AND I SAY THAT WITH EVERY INCH OF LOVE THAT I HAVE IN NY HEART. LOVE YOU MAN.
Lo Fi: thankyou so much !!!! lov you right back!
Karen: Respect! This is one of the reasons i started following you. Keep using your platform, as a poc seeing one of my favorites be vocal & active it means a lot.
Lo Fi: PRAYER HANDS!!!!!
Sydney: What books are you currently reading? What are you doing to occupy time these days? I suggest 1984 if you haven’t read yet. Much love Lo 🖤🦋
Lo Fi: Boreta and I are working on concepts for an expanded interactive book club [including podcasts, talks, lectures, and stuff] but for today and now i am focused on promoting/sharing the 3 titles in our 1000 Books campaign - i wish i had a quick link handy anyone got one? but yah, we are giving away 1000 copies of 3 books to try and encourage learning and critical thinking. please join us :)
Rene: What’s up Lorin? We probably won’t be seeing you until sometime next year (hopefully) but do you got any plans at future events of doing something to support BLM and get more bassheads hip to the this massive protest that need to be heard by more !
Lo Fi: since future events are so far away we are focusing on RIGHT NOW.... please tune in to Be Interactive, we have been goin INNNNNNNNNNN and now with this 1000 Books Campaign hopefully you can join us? :)
Danielle: I’m so excited for this reading list! Thank you for putting that together. Sapiens was such an interesting book I can’t wait to read the others.
I recently had to excuse my grandma from my life because she is a racist. It’s hard to stay optimistic. I wanted to changer her mind and I thought I could because I’m a POC but she won’t have it. Lo Fi Tips on optimism during this time?
Lo Fi: damn...i feel you [i have several loved ones whom i am struggling with this on]... i guess:
  1. educate yourself, ALWAYS assume you are prone to mistakes and you have a lot to learn. always be open to being wrong and learning how to be right
  2. thirst for knowlege, and always THINK CRITICALLY...try and slow down a little before reacting or speaking... think carefully and mindfully
  3. search for conscientious ways you can share truth and knowlege with her? Potentially read NONVIOLENT COMMUNICATION because it teaches how to build bridges and communicate constructively,....which LAWD NOSE aint easy :)
Cassie: I have to say I have seen a lot of videos, resources and information I might not have seen thanks to your retweets on twitter throughout all of this.....I live in a place where those type of things don’t always get shared so it’s really helped me to get that information out to people in my little corner of the world who otherwise might not have seen it. Personally I have never felt more aligned with the bassnectar then I do right now. It’s been so refreshing to see you use your voice to shout information that needs to be shouted. Much love to you and thank you for being the voice we needed during this. You could have stayed quite but you didn’t and I applaud you for every bit of that.
Lo Fi: YAY!!!!! my friend recently teased me that im tryna be "BNN"
Trey: I think music is exactly what the world needs right now. It truly has the power to heal. I love how the title of a few of these tracks really pertain to emotions that are going on now
Lo Fi: absolutely agree :)
Christopher: Just wanted to say I appreciate your intervention during such a tumultuous time. Thank you so much for speaking up and inspiring others to do so as well- especially to recognize BLM. The initiative this community has taken has been quite impressive!
Lo Fi: not lookin to impress, but DEEPLY hoping to contribute, so i am glad we are feeling each other :)
Chelcie: Thank you for taking Time to pour yourself into so many different things. The album is GOLD. When we all finally have a chance to get back together it’s going to be more than incredible. I love you, the team and all the wonderful people I’ve met due to the music. THANK YOU LO!
Lo Fi: DUUUUUDE> i just cannnot fuckin WAIIIITTTT
It's literally like this deep enchanting sense of sorrow i feel for the imaginary world which i created this music for... an alternate universe where 2020 was BLASTING FULL FORCE, just had SO MANY plans and visions for Deja, Freestyle, Bonnarooo, etc etc!!!
BUT ALSO: as fucking horrific and intense as the last few months have been, i am glad this happened because our society ABSOLUTELY MUST wake up to confront our racist core foundation and work together immediately to change things :)
Quinton: You literally privately text and message kids who are actively racist in their words and ways if that's not extra ironic awkwardness IDK what is
Lo Fi: Quinton: while i really dislike your tone [what the heck makes you feel ok about being so snarky to me?] i assume you are trying to say
"why do you communicate with someone who is racist?"
to which i would answer that in a case by case basis I may be trying to share love or compassion with someone whose heart needs healing, or i may be attempting to share new persoectives... "before a revolution can start in the streets, it first has to happen in the mind".
again, please take a second and consider how abrasive your language was with your comment. you come off as rude, aggressive and just POINTLESSLY non-constructive.
Corinne: I appreciate your sentiment on this SO much. Use what you’ve been given: talent, platform, etc to spread the messages that need to be spread and to amplify black voices. Thank you for being you. We love you and this album is a beacon of light in an uncertain time. I am wanting to hear more from you in a more personal vibe like this about where you stand on the protests & injustice in this country right now. I am a huge fan and it’s been tough to see other fans not understanding what’s happening and I think hearing more personal messages from Lorin’s mouth will help people to make the decision to learn more & expand their ideology. Stay safe.
Lo Fi: thanks CG! one thing i have to say is it is just NOT comfortable speaking 'on a personal vibe' because the climate of outrage and hatred is so deafening... but literally the most honest math formula for me is:
Sensitivity + Empathy + Compassion = COMPULSIVE NEED to share and give back
not trying to be preachy, but WE ALL are so lucky...so insanely lucky...our 1st world lives are unimaginably blessed
so i think each of us HAS FULL POTENTIAL to take stock of our blessings and decide how they want to use their privilege to give back to the world around them. and i think this HAS TO BE a personal decision.
Maybe someone does not feel a lot of empathy or compassion. maybe they are struggling through hard times and don't have much to give or share. and that's ok! let's give and share love and compassion with those people. and if you [or any of us] feel the opposite: LIKE YOU ARE SO GRATEFUL FOR ALL YOUR BLESSINGS AND YOU JUST WANNA GIVE BACK:
then DO IT. :)
submitted by JMRooDukes808 to bassnectar [link] [comments]

9 Tips to Identify Your Bad Sports Betting Habits

Even the most successful punters in the world develop bad habits.
But, the difference between them and the large majority of punters is that they are aware of what those habits are, and when these habits return, they immediately do something about them to ensure they don’t become a problem.
If you have been betting for a long time then you too have probably developed some bad habits.
Here are nine of the more common sports betting habits that can be a problem for punters. What they all have in common is that they can be easy traps to fall into, and they can be very costly if they are not identified and corrected.
Let’s take a look at each sports betting habit in detail.

1. Betting without a goal

If you have no idea what you are trying to do as punter, then you are just wandering the desert with no direction. Your goal could be anything as small as betting on major sporting events like the Super Bowl or FA Cup or as grandiose as “to win enough money so you can quit your day job and never have to work again!
Without a goal, you’re just throwing money at a sports betting site with no idea when to cash out – or more importantly, when to stop adding funds to your online wallet.

2. Believing your own hype

Punters typically have an ego.
They need one to make the riskier bets and believe they are smart enough to outsmart the sportsbooks and the betting public.
When your winning bets are successful, then that’s great. The problem, though, is that when you have an ego it is easy for that ego to become inflated. If you have some success and make a profit then it can be easy to believe that you can’t lose. That could mean that you take risks that you don’t have the bankroll for, or make bets on sports you know nothing about.
It is crucial for punters to remember that they are only as good as their next winning bet, and that every winning streak they have just brings the next losing streak that much closer. If you lack that humility and self-awareness – or if you misplace it for a while – then you are going to be in trouble when it comes to sports betting.

3. Cutting corners

Once people have been betting for a while – and when they start to enjoy their success – they begin to try to cut some corners to make the process a bit less troublesome. And this leads to spending less time conducting research or watching games.
The problem not following your trusted methods is that when you cut corners you are no longer practicing what you were doing when you were winning! Getting lazy means you will not be able to guarantee your success as with your previous bets.

4. Blaming others for your losses

You ask your betting mate who he likes. You scour Twitter for hot picks. You visit forums in search of sports betting tips and finally settle on the one you like with the best logic of winning. Then, when you lose, you blame others and not yourself!
This is sinful sports betting behavior. You picked your bet, stick by it. Blaming others leads you down a dangerous road of making bets against your better judgement. Better to determine what went wrong so you don’t repeat the same sports betting mistakes in the future.

5. Failing to innovate

The world of sports betting is always changing and advancing.
New betting options are always available, and new information can be easily found to help you understand and interpret games. With the amount of online information available, punters are becoming smarter, betting on sports the bookmakers know little about, or cashing out when results are not going their way.
Punters who fail to innovate and take advantage of every option are going to lose ground against the bookmakers and betting profits will inevitably decrease.

6. Chasing Losses

Let's assume you lost $1,000 on a bet that you were sure was going to win. It doesn’t so you decide that the best thing you can do is get a quick $1,000 win to make up for that loss. And the following week, you have calculated that your new bet has an even better chance of winning - so you bet high to be able to recoup the losses from the previous week.
As nothing is guaranteed, now you're facing possibility of going completely broke if the bet does not happen as you expected - and you lose even more money because you were chasing your losses. This might work some of the time, but it won't work every time. You're embracing a high risk strategy when you chase your losses like this.
Eventually, you'll wind up going broke. A broke punter doesn't win any money, so don’t chase your losses.

7. Following the Crowd

The general public is almost always wrong.
In fact, you should take any chance you get to bet against the general public. If you only get into this one habit, you could turn around the entire future of your sports betting career.
This strategy is called "fading the public". The public loves a winner, and wishes to be in the winning camp with the media inflating this view. The public do not do their research like you do - so there is a better chance your bet will be correct (and no doubt with better odds) than what the public is going with.

8. Making Too Many Bets

Effective punters only bet when they have the best of it. In other words, if a bet doesn't have a positive expected value, they just walk away from it. This means that some weeks you'll place more bets than others.
Think about poker. The players who fold their bad hands make more money. Passing up bad sports bets is like folding bad hands in poker.
You're better off increasing the amount you wager on fewer bets that you're more confident in. Spreading your bets may sound a logical strategy but then you’ll require nearly all of them to win to obtain any profit.

9. Sticking to same teams or sports

There are punters who only bet on certain teams, leagues, or sports.
Or for some, they only place bets on live betting.
These punters do this because it is what they know, and what they are comfortable with. Unless you can be sure, though, that those teams or leagues offer the best possible betting opportunities for your skills (or interests) then you could be missing out.
It could be that another conference or league offers much better value because there is less media attention. As we mentioned earlier, failing to innovate and experimenting with different teams and sports can be counterproductive to your betting profits.
During the 2015/16 football season, punters who always bet on Premier League favorites Chelsea FC had their hopes and subsequent bets suddenly dashed as the club lost game after game. Innovative punters who bet on Leicester City FC saw an unfancied team (who were favorites for relegation) win game after game - outsmarting the bookmakers and increasing their profits.
submitted by PresentType to verificationsportsbet [link] [comments]

Rebuttal to Mother's Basement's video on Alicization (warning: super long)

One of Mother's Basement's latest videos on SAO criticized Alicization's first two cours, and while I'd say it's slightly better than his average vid, yet again, a lot of what he says is flat out wrong or purposefully misinterpreted.

Why'd I type all this out?
Even today, a lot of people seem to believe that MB is a reliable source when it comes to SAO, and those who disagree are just making stuff up without any evidence. Ergo, there's a need for evidence, and boy is there a boatload of that...

Bonus: MB claims that he's going treat the anime fairer in this video and onwards.
Kind of a sub criticism since the evidence is strewn across his entire video,and thus is strewn across my rebuttal (I'll mark each separate instance with an *).
Even if you ignore the fact that he never should have been half the ass he was in previous videos (Actual quotes: "Pretty much everyone over the age of 12 agrees that SAO is a bad anime", "Some people seem to be under the impression that SAO's OP's are actually good" etc, etc) he really hasn't changed right now either. There are plenty of instances where he's needlessly rude or vitriolic towards the anime. Hell, within the very title he describes SAO as a "Dumpster fire". Aren't there a 100 different ways that he could have said the same thing without being so inflammatory? Then again, maybe that's because being inflammatory and attracting the attention of mindless SAO haters isn't something he wants to avoid.
Besides, the apparent apology seems very suspect to me considering that he did the exact same thing many SAO videos earlier, talking about how he'd look at the series in a more generous lens and even try reading the LN. Right before proceeding to make multiple videos bashing SAO with the same level of untruths and inaccuracy. Hmm. This definitely isn't the exact same sentiment repackaged.
But in all honesty, it seems to me that this isn't a legitimate change of heart from him, but rather some calculated decision he made in order to net more views. Even in the past, there are many times where it seemed to me that he didn't really believe what he was saying, but rather, he was willing to twist the truth and make SAO look bad if he thought it would benefit him. Take his video on SAO's OPs for example. In other OP analyses videos (and he has a lot of them) he goes through every detail with a fine toothed comb, and yet for the SAO OP's he misses out on so many points that even a random SAO viewer could probably notice. Likely reason? He saw that SAO had much symbolism, but decided to go with insults because that'd be more popular with the viewers. And it was.
I find it difficult to believe that the guy who talked about how blood personality theory connected to the character of Hero-Killer Stain, and made an entire video on a bag of chips from Death Note is so blind that when he sees Asuna in Crossing Field huddling within a blanket in a dark room as another version of her strides across the screen, all he can say is "This shows that Asuna has a sensitive side". That sounds like the kind of vague and terrible analysis I'd make in a rushed Lit paper forgotten about until the night before it was due back in middle school. That's what makes me think it's the same calculated decision here. "People are getting tired of me repetitively complaining about SAO? Alright, I'll pretend to be different to switch things up and get their interest."

Yui destroys all dramatic tension within the show
Not true at all. Let's look at the primary goal/source of dramatic tension each arc vs What Yui does in that arc
Aincrad-Clearing all 100 floors/defeating Kayaba | Saves Asuna and Kirito once
Fairy Dance-Saving Asuna|Provides info & advice, gets through the World Tree barrier thanks to Asuna
Phantom Bullet- Stopping Death Gun| Turning on a TV
Mother's Rosario- Beating a floor boss with just the SK guild | Helping Kirito stall the enemy guild while the Sleeping Knights challenge the floor boss
Alicization- Defeating Quinella and the Axiom Church | Is able to partially help in finding Kirito.

Saying that there's a single arc where Yui destroys all dramatic tension is simply wrong, and saying that this is the case for every single arc is complete nonsense.

Fluctlights are pure pseudoscience
The underlying concept of Fluctlights is based on real life research by experts in the field of Quantum Physics from decades ago, and some of the mentioned aspects like "Microtubules" and "Photons in the brain" are perfectly real as well. It seems rather unfair that Reki Kawahara did actual research and work on the topic only for a random youtuber with no background in the field to claim that it's made up fiction, and to even mock it in his twitter* continuously as BS comparable to Midichlorians in terms of ridiculousness. Hell, all you have to do is just google "Photons in the brain" and you'll find a relevant article, like this. But of course using a search bar and entering a few words is too much effort for the guy.

The fact that Rath attempts to create bottom-up AI, when we've already seen top-down AI like Yui show an ability to learn must be some sort of plot hole
This complaint is pure presumption stemming from a lack of info to back it up. The very first Alicization LN mentions how Yui, despite being (to Kirito's knowledge) the highest standard of AI to exist as a result of how she monitored and learned from the actions and psychological states of thousands of players back in Aincrad, still isn't perfectly human, and can have difficulty reacting to situations she has no experience with, "showing an AI-like expression" on her face in such scenarios. The second LN goes a bit more in depth, and mentions how as a top-down AI, Yui essentially knows how to act as a result of being in a certain situation, and learning that they should react in a certain manner. Bottom Up AI like the Artificial Fluctlights however, know to act human in a completely natural manner.
Granted, these are explained in more detail in the LN, and MB admits at the end that there are some differences in the LN that might explain or remedy the flaws he mentioned. However, this seems very disingenuous* considering how ready he is to delve into LN material as long as it supports one of his criticisms, but then look the other way when it goes against his criticisms.
And even then, it's not as if we see any evidence supporting the opposite. This is all speculation from what we don't know by MB, which makes for a very weak critique.

Even if top-down AI aren't as advanced as bottom-up AI, why would you want the latter for something as simple as "going places and shooting things"?
Why would a military want to have state of the art tech, when they can simply settle for something mediocre? Of course Rath would their AI soldiers to be as intelligent, and as adaptable as possible. Additionally, just like a nuclear arms race, there's a good chance that an AI race would be sparked, where both, if not all sides (consisting of major countries) would be competing for the superior, most developed AI that they could use to outwit the other side in a future war. There's no way that Rath would want to fall behind with inferior technology.

And saying that all you need for an effective soldier is someone who can "go places and shoot things" seems rather flippantly rude to actual soldiers- you might as well say "all you need to be a pro gamer is the ability to press a bunch of buttons". There are clearly many other such things that you need to account for:
-Strategies and tactics to use in combat
-Ethical protocols when dealing with enemy troops, civilians, POW's
-How to react in unexpected situations (eg: an ambush/surprise attacks, equipment failing, guns jamming)
etc.
Considering the danger that Articial Fluctlight's can produce (eg: a Skynet type incident), it doesn't make sense that the Taboo Index is seen as a problem
Mother's Basement is severely exaggerating the threat that those of the Underworld pose. AF's have hacking capabilities comparable to the average human, if not worse, considering that they don't even know basic IT, and lack the intrinsic system manipulating abilities of an AI like Yui. Your chances of Skynet are next to 0.
The most that Quinella-an exceptional, one in a million case of a AF who knew the Sacred Arts system better than anyone else in her world-could achieve (in terms of influencing the outside world) after hundreds of years and a helping hand from the other side was simply a means to transfer herself out of the Underworld. What could a random Artificial Fluctlight like, say Alice do, when they lack all those advantages and are under greater surveillance (a single person within a single machine, as opposed to thousands of people within a huge world, as well as being far easier to observe (since it is unlikely that Rath would continue using Fluctlight Acceleration after the AF were extracted, and thus they could quickly intervene if they noticed something sketchy going on)).
What MB ignores is that the AF escaping the Underworld and wreaking havoc is extremely unlikely. Imagine that tomorrow you realised that you were living in a simulation. Could you escape it? No, because that's not physically possible. Same for the AF, assuming that the Sacred Arts system was removed, something that Cardinal stated was certainly possible.
Even if the AF used the robot shells they controlled to, say, attack RATH, there can still obviously be fail-safes (like your basic kill switch) present, and the members of RATH surveying their actions. And though many movies and books circumvent this issue by having the AI hack or disable their failsafe, again, that's far beyond the capabilities of an AF.

It doesn't make sense that Rath wouldn't use the Integrity Knights as soldiers, since they've been shown to be capable of injuring and potentially even killing others who've been labelled enemies.
Firstly, the main 'advantage' to using the Knights that MB stated was already debunked one point ago.
Secondly, the way that they are limited means that they lack the ingenuity and ability to improvise when faced with an unexpected situation. Let's take Alice as an example: fighting on her own turf, she managed to almost defeat Kirito and withstand Eugeo's Enhance Armament. But put her in combat in a situation where she has no experience at all, like balancing precariously on the side of the Axiom Church while fighting winged monsters, and she freezes. Then, put her back to a (relatively) normal fighting terrain (the terrace from where she and Kirito stood) and she's at ease again. In the LN, Kirito even states this:
("In general, the people of the Underworld tended to react poorly towards situation beyond their expectations or common sense.
Their adaptability towards «originally impossible circumstances» was especially low...").
Rath has been aiming to create AI where their main advantage is how adaptable they are (Hence the A in A.L.I.C.E), so why would they settle for an AI which is clearly not at its full potential even after investing undoubtedly a *lot* of money and time into the project and even obtaining official government endorsement.
Thirdly, the Integrity Knights are capable of combat only in the explicit conditions of their own world. Just like an ordinary Underworld citizen, they're still bound to their own laws and restrictions.If they were extracted to the real world, and told to follow a new system of rules and ethics, they'd likely be frozen and incapable of fighting. And since they have been raised and trained to believe that their sole duty is to protect their own land, how would they react to orders telling them to protect a completely different one?
If Rath tried using the Integrity Knights, they'd be settling for Artificial Fluctlights that were clearly not at the standards they aimed for, were barely less of a risk, and might not even be functional at all.

It doesn't make sense that Eugeo thinks Kirito wouldn't want to replace Alice S30 with Alice Zuberg, nor is Kirito ever shown expressing such thoughts.
Eugeo and Kirito know each other very well after their years together. After Eugeo sees Alice S30 expressing a true compassionate personality of her own when they re-unite at the top floor of the Axiom Church, it's not too big of a stretch for Eugeo to realise that Kirito, the same guy who would sacrifice Cardinal's dagger and their ticket to defeat Quinella just to save the life of an enemy who tried to kill him (Fanatio), would probably be unwilling to sacrifice S30.
And with Kirito it's clear that he was against Alice S30 giving up her life. It's not said verbally, but it's pretty damn obvious from the expression Kirito gives when Alice S30 says "After all, I must return what I've stolen, right (in reference to her body)", that is he isn't comfortable with what she plans to do. This is even obvious when you consider Kirito's approach to Cardinal's plan to 'save' the Underworld. He'll go along with it for now because there aren't any other options, but he'll still keep searching for another way.

Kirito's tearful scene makes no sense and is just meant to quickly introduce Incarnation
Homesickness is believable when you haven't seen your family and friends in two years, and Kirito has repressed negative emotions before, only for a catalytic event to draw them out (Phantom Bullet). It seems rather hypocritical to shun a character for seemingly having no character development, and then to shun him for having it.

And while Incarnation is introduced in this scene, that doesn't lessen the validity of what had previously happened. One of the aspects of Kawahara's writing that I enjoy is how certain points in SAO have more than one role in the story
eg: The LN only scene where Cardinal mentions how to create those high priority daggers she had to cut her hair and convert them into blades fulfills two objectives. 1) It introduces us to the idea of converting objects into weapons and gives some background information. 2) Adds to Cardinal's character on how she often pretends to lack humanity, but subconsciously shows glimpses of it.
Or when Kirito and Alice are outside the Axiom Church after defeating the minions and Alice remarks on Kirito's hunger: 1) Shows a difference in personality between Alice and Kirito, where the latter is (generally) more childish and carefree 2) Sets up a point of humor with Alice's stomach rumbling 3) Reminds us of how skilled Alice is at Sacred Arts 4) Sets up Kirito accidentally revealing her past.

Every single battles is way too predictable in their usage of the environment
This is simply wrong, and probably one of the worst complaints in his entire video if you consider not only how inaccurate it is, but also how big of an issue he claims it to be. The only instances with involvement of the environment are: Eugeo vs Bercouli, Alice vs Kirito, and Quinella when she summons the Sword Golem (though even then, with the latter two it's quite a stretch).

On the other hand, other fights like (*takes deep breath*) the GGO fight, Vs Goblins, Zakkaria Fight 1, Zakkaria Fight 2, Vs Sortiliena ,Vs Levantein ,Sortiliena Vs Levantein ,Eugeo Vs Humbert, Kirito Vs Raios, Cardinal Vs Quinella, Vs Eldrie, Vs Deuselbert, Vs Fanatio, Vs Minions, Kirito Vs Eugeo, Eugeo vs Quinella, Vs Chudelkein, Vs Sword Titan, Eugeo (sword form) vs Sword Titan and Quinella, Kirito vs Quinella have no such usage.
In other words, even after looking at it very liberally, 87.5% of the battles showcase no usage of the environment.
That is extremely different from MB's statement of "In basically every room where Kirito and Eugeo have to fight someone, there are two or three objects or structures or substances in the immediate vicinity that without fail are utilised in the fight". What he's claiming isn't just completely and utterly wrong, but again, he seriously exaggerates how big of an issue that non-existent problem is.
Let me repeat that. In a season with plenty of battles, MB criticises all of them for supposedly having a problem to a huge extent, when in reality that problem doesn't exist at all.
MB also says that Fanatio's fight counts because Kirito used the surrounding pillars for cover from Fanatio's beams of light... but that makes me wonder whether he was even paying attention to the fight. At no point at all in the entire fight (and I re-watched it all just to be sure) did Kirito use the pillars to block her rays. He did jump away from her Release Recollection at one point, landing near the pillars, but clearly wasn't using them for cover, since he gets blasted through the shoulder seconds later whilst in that exact position. And even if MB somehow mis-remembered this scene so that in his mind, Kirito did use that pillar for the cover, it would still be just ~20 seconds in a ~10 minute fight, and certainly no 'ultimate trump card move' like he implies.

And about him making it sound a lot worse than it is: from those three examples I mentioned, only one of them would properly classify as "two or three conveniently placed items that are utilised". Alice v Kirito only involved the collapsing wall (barely counts at all), and with Eugeo vs Bercouli, there honestly wasn't any environmental factor involved aside from the pool of water, (and even then Eugeo could have pulled off his win without that pool, since the majority of his strategy relied on just his Perfect Armament Art). Thinking realistically, the only places where the pool would have helped would be in knocking Bercouli off his balance and freezing the area around them. Even if the entire room was flat and dry, Bercouli could have been knocked down and frozen- it'd have just been a bit harder.
MB mentions the Sword Titan's creation as being another example of every room having something that ends up factoring into the fight. But as a complaint, this makes 0 sense. Aside from the environment not factoring into the battle at all, but merely into the ST's creation, why would the crystals in the ceiling and swords on the wall be a bad thing? This is Quinella's ultimate weapon- why would you expect her to leave it lying around anywhere but her room? One might as well complain about how awfully convenient it is that Fanatio had her sword in the exact moment that she fought Kirito. Geoff essentially complains about how an antagonist keeps the keys to her secret weapon near herself.

He also claims that this 'predictability' means that "when I tell you that Eugeo with his magic ice sword fights a samurai dude in a room full of water, that's all I have to say for you to form a more or less complete picture of that fight in your mind", and to be honest, I'm just dumbfounded.

Does he really expect that someone hearing "Eugeo fights a samurai (though not really) in a room full of water" would instantly realise "Bercouli has the power to launch strikes that remain in that same spot even after time has passed, which catches Eugeo off guard and flings him in a bloodied state into the pool. To counter this Eugeo uses his Enhance armament to send an icy wave roaring towards Bercouli, which is destroyed by a single blow from Bercouli's sword. Eugeo uses the time he bought to clear the gap between them and tricks Bercouli into the two of them clashing their swords together, only to reveal that Eugeo simply used an icicle as a fake blade. He then tackles Bercouli and takes advantage of the icy floor so that Bercouli loses his footing and tumbles into the pool, where Eugeo launches a quick sacred art to break the ice that held his real blade to the ceiling from earlier, catches his sword and then uses his release recollection art to freeze the entire pool. Bercouli tries to resist using his raw strength, only for Eugeo to use the second aspect of his art- icy flowers that drain life, with the goal of sapping both their health until Bercouli (who had less health due to his greater age) had his life fall to the point of defeat".
It's a very wordy block of text, but that's the point. There's so much that you don't get by hearing just a single line from MB, despite his nonsensical claim.
And if you say you can get all of that, or even most of that, from just that single sentence by MB, I'd say you're either a liar or a psychic.

The Perfect Weapon Control is only a gimmick introduced because the fights would be "tedious" otherwise
Firstly, it's worth noting that there's a sort of hostility in MB's words here*. Instead of treating the Perfect Weapon Control Art as, say, a means of adding a new twist to the fights and making them more interesting for viewers, he treats it as if it's some sort of crutch to compensate for how incompetent the fights would otherwise be, and looks at it from a solely negative perspective. With that sort of biased logic, you could say that any anime with good animation must be the studio's attempt to compensate for the lackluster content and plot. I highly doubt he'd act in such a rude and judgmental manner if this were any other series.

Secondly, it's clear that the Perfect Weapon Control Art isn't just there as a gimmick for the fights: it sets up the main climax of the second cour, after all. The Sword Titan is created using the Perfect Weapon Art, where the blade's memories were unleashed to strengthen it and use it as a living weapon.
So in the case of the Sword Titan, which consisted of multiple humans in the past, it gained the ability to move and act like an organism, as well a fast HP regeneration rate. I doubt that with all those factors coming together, you can truly say that the PWC art still had no other purpose or meaning. Without it, the Sword Titan, a major factor in the endgame of Alicization's first half, would not exist at all.

Charlotte is an AI like Yui, so it doesn't make sense that Kirito is surprised by Charlotte's compassion.
Charlotte is stated as being the equivalent of an ordinary game's NPC. While an NPC does have a basic AI controlling its decisions, it cannot compare at all to Yui, a state-of-the-art AI designed to mentally counsel humans and thereby from those interactions, grow more human herself as well over the course of two years (and with a core program alone which contains 3 Terabytes).

Alice is purely a Saber knock off
This strikes me as quite a presumptuous and rude claim from someone doesn't even bother to give any evidence as to why Alice is apparently a rip-off of Saber before accusing Kawahara of plagiarism.
Firstly, just because they share a few superficial similarities doesn't mean one's a rip-off of the other.
Glasses from One Punch Man and Gohan from Dragon Ball Z are both non-MC physical fighters who look very similar (when the latter is wearing his tracksuit). But this doesn't mean that ONE decided to rip-off DBZ.
Todoroki from BNHA and Zuko from ATLA are both teenage boys who start off with a sub antagonistic role, have issues with a father who tried to force his legacy onto them, fire powers, a mother who disappeared when they were young and a large scar running across their face, centered on their eye. But Kohei Horikoshi himself has stated that this was not purposeful. In other words, he didn't decide to rip-off another series either.
And besides, as someone who's watched every episode of Alicization as well as their LN counterparts, and has seen every main continuity Fate adaptation (Zero, Stay/Night, UBW, Heaven's Feel), Alice and Saber strike me as clearly separate, distinguishable characters.

Eugeo never reunites with Alice and experiences closure to his arc
He does. He re-unites with the Alice he knew, after working together to take down the Sword Titan and then sacrificing themselves together. It's not the happy ending that Eugeo originally envisioned, but he knows that the world they care about will be safe, and he can be together with Alice- at least in death.
MB also seems to confuse Alice S30 with Alice Zuberg here, by complaining about how S30 and Eugeo never connect. But, put simply... why? To Eugeo, Alice S30 is nothing more than a stranger in his childhood friend's body, seeing as how there's a separate memory fragment storing Zuberg's entire personality and soul. What do you say to someone who has your closest childhood friend's body, but is a completely separate person? Nothing was directly said between the two, because nothing needed to be said. Eugeo and Alice S30 respected each other as fighters against Quinella's tyranny, but there was no way that Eugeo expected her to be the same as the Alice he knew.

Kirito and Eugeo are assholes for trying to trying to control Alice's body (yes, this is a real criticism)
Without context, this argument might seem somewhat legitimate, but with context it's absolutely not. Alice S30 had decided that she only came into being through unnatural means and at the cost of Zuberg's ownership over her body, and thus it was her duty to return her body, even if she 'died' as a result.
Early on, Eugeo was willing to do this as well, because it hadn't registered for him that she had a personality aside from a mindless knight fighting against the Axiom Church's enemies (similar to how Eugeo S32 was). Kirito, after realising that S30 was her own person, didn't want such a thing to happen- he wanted to find another way. So, according to Mother's Basement, Eugeo is an asshole for trying to remove a soul he didn't believe existed from the body of someone who was more than willing to accommodate, and Kirito is an asshole for... trying to save Alice's life?? This is flabbergastingly stupid.
He might as well say that suicide prevention groups are assholes for trying to control other people's bodies.

Eugeo is an asshole for purposefully taking Alice Zuberg's soul away from S30
This is factually false, and Alice died due to damage to her memory fragment. Even if they didn't directly state it, and it somehow didn't occur to MB after the seeing the vessel that contained her shatter, the fact that she embraces Eugeo with open arms, and later on walks to her death with a content expression on her face, should probably have tipped him off to the idea that she wasn't forced to die by him at all. It's not as if Eugeo suddenly felt lonely and decided to yank Alice's soul to deletion as well.
Besides, MB strays from his own logic here. Zuberg made the conscious decision to sacrifice herself and work together with Eugeo, but for some reason what Zuberg does with herself is unfair to S30? What happened to it being her body? MB acts like he's playing the role of the noble voice who speaks for S30, but Alice Synthesis 30 herself said that she regarded Zuberg to be the 'true' Alice. So then if something is done involving her (Zuberg's) memories, then why is it unfair to S30?

Quinella's death showed bad writing
Controversial & unorthodox ≠ bad. Her death held meaning if you paid attention. And I've heard some people, MB included, who try the very lazy route of presenting the situation with as little context as possible and in the worst possible light, and thus say that it is so weird that it must be bad-Ermahgerd, a flaming clown humped (not really) the naked antagonist to death! (He's also done similarly in the past with ALO, like greatly exaggerating Suguha's feelings towards Kirito for shock value and mindless bashing)*.
But by that very premise, a lot of anime would automatically be considered terrible. I don't watch JoJo's Bizzare Adventures, but to my knowledge, it has a major villain who's defining feature and motive for crime is that he has a fetish for cutting off women's hands and chatting them (the hands) up, after first getting a boner from seeing Mona Lisa's bare hands. He's also considered one of the series' best villains. There are many other such examples in anime to prove my point.

Chudelkein humped Quinella to death
Not only was the jester holding on to her for less than half a minute, it's worth noting that he was on fire! And he's not immune to its aftereffects, as evidenced by how his first instance using the flame sacred arts ended up completely searing the flesh around his eyes. ("It would feel just a little warm when thermal elements were brought forth several centimeters from your fingers, but he would never get out unscathed when maintaining ones that large right before his eyeballs. The skin around his eyes started sizzling at once").
Similarly, when his face started breaking down into the rough shape of a skull as he grasped Quinella, it wasn't just a shift in art style- his face was literally being melted down. I highly doubt his crotch would be in working condition for what MB implies. Besides, even aside from that, we never even saw him humping Quinella. Why would one just jump to conclusions like that?

Fanatio's complex doesn't make sense (why would she care about a Dark Knights words, why don't other female Integrity Knights act in such a way, why does this belief persist when the leader of their world is a woman) and only exists to keep the fight from getting repetitive
Who's to say that an enemy's words would have no effect on her? The fact that Fanatio's an Integrity Knight who has very little contact with other humans aside from her own fellow knights (as Alice stated, Integrity Knights are prohibited with mingling with citizens except in the line of duty) means it's very possible that her own experience with an enemy who looked down on her could lead to her own personal complex. If Fanatio fought a Dark knight who acted in a sexist manner, then can could very well leave a mark on her mind. And the way that other female knights like Alice don't feel this way can simply be because
  1. They haven't had such an experience
  2. Different people react differently to the same/similar situation.
Take the character of Death Gatling from One Punch Man for example. In a hierarchical hero system, he holds a grudge against the Hero Association because of how A Class heroes (like him) are often treated as much less important than those of the S Class. He believes in this to such an extent that he actively avoided bringing S Class back-up to the fight against Garou when he clearly needed it. But there are many other heroes in A class, and nobody other than him is shown having that same bone to pick with the HA. That's for the same reason that not every woman in the Underworld feels the same way as Fanatio.
And the fact that the Pontifex is a woman isn't necessarily some immediate fix to her complex. Misogny was a thing in the Victorian Era, for example, where the ruler of Britain was a woman. Did the entire country just go "Wait, a second, our leader is female! In that case, let's immediately abolish sexist laws and give women suffrage and equal rights and whatnot"? Answer: No they didn't.

And her complex has a pretty clear reason for existing within the story. It's to do with Eugeo's character development. At the point within the story where he met Fanatio, he's angry. Partially just at himself for being what he considers to be a monster (in a world where simply injuring someone is a grave crime, he has committed what he considers tantamount to murder), but he's angry at the Integrity Knights as well. His faith in the system has crumbled, to the point where he sees them as the church's mindless puppets, who'd whisk away a little girl and tie her in chains for falling a centimeter further than she should have, but then fail to even safeguard Rulid from the threat of murderous goblins. Once Eugeo has seen the Axiom Church as the enemy, he's automatically inclined to take that idea to the extreme. But Fanatio challenges that belief.
"Humans... Yeah... you're right. I understood that much when I fought them. She's human; that's why she was so strong.” When Eugeo muttered that, Kirito let out a slight laugh and agreed.
“Those guys might say that they're absolute good, and they might be absolute evil in your eyes, but they're living humans just like us."
Fanatio's complex is what shows Kirito and especially Eugeo that she is her own person, in spite of any preconceived notions that the latter had. Insecurity and anger at something so personal and simple makes her undeniably human, and proves that she is more than a soulless, hollow puppet. If it wasn't for that, Eugeo would've gone the entire fight without reaching that conclusion.

Incarnation is a retcon for when Kirito brought himself back to life in S1
While they are based on related concepts, Incarnation is in no way a retcon. The rough concept from S1 was since the Nervegear picked up signals from your brain, a temporary emotional burst could allow you to momentarily defy the system (like surviving for a little longer when he should have died, or breaking through a paralysis effect, as Asuna did). True Incarnation from Alicization comes from how the Underworld in particular operates, making True Incarnation something unique to it.
A retcon is something which changes the established canon. How does the Underworld having such a system alter the previously established worldbuilding of Aincrad? The very reason why Incarnation exists in the Underworld is because it runs on a different system from Aincrad after all.

The only reason why things turned out as they did in the episodes leading up to Ep 24 was because of Kawahara's need to keep Kirito as a self-insert for the audience to project themselves onto
Kirito in MB's mind: Flawless self-insert for the audience who never fails at anything in this arc
Kirito in reality: Gets stabbed and almost killed by the Sword Titan in a matter of seconds, watches as Cardinal, Charlotte and Eugeo die in front of him due to his own powerlessness, loses his right arm and spends the next six months and many episodes as a vegetative, half-alive cripple.

Logically speaking, it doesn't make sense that Kirito couldn't save Eugeo, considering that he was capable of hacking SAO to save Yui, has an open access panel right there on the top floor and has even seen the entire command list after it was shown to him by Cardinal.
Kirito couldn't save Eugeo with Sacred Arts learnt from the list because:
-As Quinella stated, there weren't enough spatial resources to heal major injuries anymore within the room.
-It's unlikely that Kirito could've learned the complex Sacred Arts that Cardinal showed him because of how advanced sacred arts are long and difficult to memorise, he had more important things for Cardinal to fill him in on, he had to memorise the long complex Perfect Weapon Control Art command etc.
-And even aside from that, it's unlikely that Kirito had the system authority to use such high ranking spells.

And again, Kirito never hacked into the system in SAO. Not only did Reki Kawahara clear this misconception up in a public tweet from around the same time the episode aired, he mentioned it in an Alicization novel as well.
"To be specific, I simply accessed the SAO's program space from a system console, searched for the files that made up Yui, compressed them, and set that as an object; carrying it out in the few tens of seconds before Cardinal [Aincrad's Cardinal System] detected my system intervention and quarantined it, however, was probably a true miracle in itself."
-Alicization Rising
You can't get much more thorough than that, providing an explanation within the source material as well as in a public word of god statement. Not to mention how old that tweet is. MB is literally spreading untruths from 7 years ago, that the author himself has personally and publicly debunked.

So, Kirito couldn't save Eugeo using the access panel because:
-It's unlikely that Kirito had the skills to do so. In Yui's case, he could simply use the pre-existing function to convert an NPC into an in-game item. Not only is there no evidence to imply that such a funtion exists in Alicization, it's not as if Kirito knew Eugeo's file name to search him up and convert him. The rules were completely different this time.
-There's no evidence to imply that the access panel could even do such a thing.

There's no excuse that Eldrie and Deuselbert don't have more character development and focus
Eldrie had a grand total of about 6 minutes of screentime (disregarding the period in which he was immobilized by the Piety Module), and even then about half of that was taken up by his fight with Kirito and Eugeo.

Deuselbert had about 16 minutes of screentime, but about 90% of it was taken up by his fight, and that the character development focus during those 16 minutes was on Eugeo.
Besides, there's a narrative purpose to the two of them not being too developed and distinctive from your idea of a classic, benevolent(ish) knight. In terms of Eugeo's development, he still held the idea that the Integrity Knights were to blame for his pain, and that they were soulless beings who simply served the church. When he met Fanatio, that idea was challenged by the emotions she expressed. If both Eldrie and Deuselbert had dramatic and detailed backstories, it would ruin that order.

Bercouli has no character aside from being an "old, confident knight who's loyal to the church but is starting to have his doubts"
While I'd argue that the level of development a character has is highly subjective there's still a fair amount of details that MB skips out on like
-Bercouli's uncle-niece type relationship with Alice Synthesis S30
-How despite being confident, he still holds a casual and informal air while talking to Eugeo.
-And again, despite being confident, he's humble enough to admit his failures in the past (how he lost badly at first against the forces of the Dark Territory). "You can bet I was beaten senseless at first".
-His cleverness in his fighting style, instead of working with brute strength and overwhelming power, which contrasts Eugeo and Kirito. Rather than adapt himself to the situation, he adapts the situation to himself.
-How he cares towards Fanatio, though that's a more subtle point.
And even then, that's with about 15 minutes of screentime.
submitted by AFellow_2003 to swordartonline [link] [comments]

PSA / FYI: For any customers who order food via delivery - thru Postmates, GrubHub, or DoorDash.

Edit 01/20/20: Long story short all these companies are shady AF. Deal with them as you would with a guy selling watches on the pedestrian overpass - you may or may not get what you wanted, but it's gonna be a hassle if you end up wanting your money back.
Edit 09/09/19: New pay model is in effect for LV. Rolling out incrementally across the country by 09/30. You can now safely tip in-app knowing that the tip goes 100% to the driver, & not to DD's coffers. You can also choose not to tip or to tip in cash, but that probably isn't the best strategy, b/c driver offer screens look like this now when you zero the tip out. Doubtful to get your food on time, if at all. But at least for customers the tipping shenanigans for DD are over, so much of what is written here can be disregarded as outdated reference.
Edit 07/26/19: DD recently announced they will be changing their pay model. No details given & status quo for now, but best guess is by Week 1 NFL they will have changed things (read: pay cut), & my advice about DD will become outdated. Will update accordingly for anyone keeping tabs. Lastly, don't believe a word Tony Xu says. He's a liar & a fatmouth & would steal your socks if you weren't looking. Scroll the comments to his tweet for verification.
TLDR: Okay this this going to be super long, but it is meant as a comprehensive expository regarding what you as a customer are paying for, & the root motivation behind it is that locals are being deceived, & to an extent, stolen from.
Source: Full-time driver for the past 15 months.
Disclaimer: Depending on your reaction, this may benefit me financially. I invite you to cross-check my claims with other drivers, driver subs, google, other references, etc.
First of all, I need to thank you as customers. I have my gripes with the platforms, but you customers have enabled me to pay off quite a few bills. In 15 months I've taken 11 days off, usually clocking 10-12 hr days, racking up around 75,000 miles & putting a proper beating on more than one vehicle. So I do feel like I've earned it - but much moreso than to the restaurants or the platforms, I owe a debt of gratitude to you.
The most beneficial info here will be to DoorDash customers - but the only way I can really explain what's going on there is to break down the other platforms first, so bear with me.
Postmates. PM works most similarly to how you would tip a server at a restaurant - you order your food, & then post-delivery, you rate & tip accordingly, based on the service. Late food / poor service, & you have every right to withhold your tip. Good communication / prompt delivery, & do what you feel is right.
However, keep in mind regarding PM - they hire anybody/everybody. All bets are off on arrival time, if your driver is on a moped with a milkcrate, if he ate half your food, or if he robs you at gunpoint. Don't mean to exaggerate here; they have good drivers too, but like I said - no bets.
GrubHub. Probably the most reliable to receive your order correct & on time (if you tip). The reason for this is b/c you have to set your tip when you order, so the offer screen sent to the driver shows the total payout, including your tip. Thus, the driver knows up front exactly what they'll be paid, & is properly motivated to get it delivered quickly & move on to the next delivery.
The flip side to the GH coin, when you don't tip (or zero it out to say 'cash tip'), is that the offer screen shows the total payout as low as $2-$3. Most drivers will reject that offer, & your no-tip order may sit in the queue for an hour or more before GH can find a driver to accept it. That driver is also likely to be less than enthusiastic.
[Please note that while you might tip in cash every time, 99/100 customers don't. So drivers never rely on cash tips, & regularly reject lowball offers.]
Just to recap; on PM with no tip I get shit, & they don't show if you tipped or how much until the next day. So I'm very wary of accepting PM offers b/c I don't want to get stiffed. On GH, I see the total payout including your tip before I accept the delivery, so naturally I reject the no-tip/low-tip offers, & cherry-pick the big ones.
Which brings me to DoorDash. Finally. The point of the damn post, & where you as a customer might be throwing money away.
DD plays the middle for the driver & says, "Hey, with DD you'll never get stiffed, b/c our minimum payout is $7.00." So even when the customer tips $0, the driver still gets $7, as opposed to $2 on GH or PM. Sounds great, right? Except that money has to come from somewhere, & FYI, locals - it's coming out of your pocket.
Grab your shovel & dig this: - If you tip $0, DD pays me $7. - If you tip $3, DD pays me $4, I still get $7. - If you tip $5, DD pays me $2, I still get $7. - If you tip $8, DD pays me $1, I get $9.
In essence, DD uses your tip to subsidize driver pay. When you tip any amount $6.00 or less, the driver doesn't get a penny more than if you had tipped nothing. When you tip $6.01 or more, that means DD only has to pay the driver $1.00. The vast majority of my DD deliveries include a $1-$5 in-app tip. I receive absolutely none of that. In-app tips do not really go to the driver - you are only paying DD a higher fee for your order.
Solution: if you use DD, zero out the in-app tip, then tip your driver in cash upon delivery, assuming it's on time & correct. Totally understandable if you prefer to not use cash, but in that case I suggest using other platforms b/c DD is just playing verbiage games. "100% of tips go to the driver" - technically true, but I think you see what's going on here.
[That last part applies to DD only; if you tip in the app on PM or GH, the driver gets it with no shenanigans.]
Again, I apologize for post length, but this is about your money, so please help spread the word. With your friends & neighbors, on FB, etc. Not looking for any credit & it wouldn't make sense to link to this long ass post, but here is a pic you can download & share, taken from this driver activist site. (Note that the minimum payout is different for every market - in Vegas it's $7, but I have seen other cities where it's lower than $5.)
I really just want to effectively convey the message that Vegas locals who use this service are spending more than they have to, & are being deceived about the tips they give.
And to hell with all that.
.
Edit: Formatting, clarification, additional points.
Example of DD payout screen after delivery.
An interesting Forbes article about how Instacart recently reversed a similar pay model under pressure, but DD & Amazon refused.
A petition page where Tech workers have been boycotting working for DD b/c of this pay model.
submitted by SonOfOak to vegaslocals [link] [comments]

⚠️I NEVER thought it would happen to me - IT privacy guru (26M) sextortion & catfish victim after using dating apps for 5 years and how I dealt with it. :(

Hey guys,
So I didn't know where or how to best post this for about a week now (I felt like a new reddit account for this content added a layer of protection and comfort for me), but I figured it can do WAY more good being out there on the line. (The Internship plug). I read a lot on how (especially young) people suicide from these events. I was quite lucky my footage was quite short and lowly lit. (It was never published publicly as far as I'm aware, it was just threatened to).
If you can relate I would feel really more comforted to hear your stories and thoughts too. I know I feel so stupid after knowing it was a catfish and giving away my personal email address + footage (I never heard of Sextortion before it happened to me, I had heard of catfishing but thought it was a thing troll did but not to this criminal extent - I've had friends and dates say they've been catfished in-person but never online like this, I feel quite ashamed talking about it with people I know, I haven't told anyone I know about it but rather just been suggesting to enhance online privacy), but you have to understand when you're in a lonely place, somewhat depressed and you match with a warm person, things can go lopsided very quickly! That's the part I wasn't honestly expecting :(
So last week I was viciously sextorted after being catfished online on OkCupid via Google Hangouts/Facebook. I had honestly never been catfished to this extent and I'm generally utmost careful about these things.
Some points to consider leading up to the online sextortion:
The attacker didn't get much of me in the video; at most it as a short video < a minute, and didn't show my face in full while doing it. It was also a dimly lit environment but they did ask throughout the video to show my face on cam and kiss it while showing a girl playing with herself on their end of the live cam which was a fake stream. I had my hesitations throughout it though being a self-conscious and private guy. The attacker kept asking me to using my selfie cam instead of my rear camera, I thought that was odd, but I was in a daze at the time, so I did a bit, but luckily I tried not to show my face in the same frame as my D as much. Thank god the light was behind my head and not in front of it or a downlight which would have lit the room up a lot more.
I wish Google did more to track these scammers (but if they're using a VPN & internet cafe it could be next to impossible to trace back, maybe the FBI has some tools or this other international internet crime fighting body I saw, Internet Crime Complaint Center https://www.ic3.gov/default.aspx, we also have DFAT here too), these attackers are literally killing people while being virtually untraceable. It's super sad.
It really has made me backflip on trusting anyone online.
I've been using Google advanced search + searching popular porn sites for my name, but so far nothing has come up with some relief.
I just don't like being constantly on edge. I have setup Google Keyword alerts too. My recorded video was a particular length as well which could help aid in spotting it on search engines if it ever does surface.
Seems like these scammers just move onto their next target if they can't get any money. I've read stories of young people suiciding after this. I guess my case was quite lucky. My internet dropped out as well and I had a lowly lit room (the light was behind the back of my head which made my face appear dark) which was really lucky because I usually would have went to a brighter room, the bathroom, but for some reason I didn't since it was taken. Thank god because the bathroom is waay more lit with a downlight and would have showed my face MUCH more clearly. I was lucky their recording was only < a minute. (according to the screenshot they sent from their Facebook account of the uploaded video set to an only me privacy setting). Probably not worth uploading for them to other sites. Anyone had this case before? The eSafety organisation said this is quite common.
Even better if OkCupid and Google could track the attacker's IP address to geolocate them via which ever ISP the attacker is using to use OkCupid / Google Hangouts; provided the attacker is not using some kind of VPN. (Which they probably are if they're this organised in a scripted cybercrime organisation, although I didn't see any VPN software on the attacker's PC through the screenshot but it looked like an internet cafe computer - fresh of no bloated software; but VPN tech could also be applied at the routemodem level too.
Potentially Google has a better chance of tracking the attacker's IP address down and contacting the relevant ISP in the Phillipines about this mischievous Google account's real user. OkCupid may have auto-logged the attacker's IP address, if they even do that.
Again, Google needs the Gmail address associated with the attacker which I don't have as explained in my previous email. https://www.wikihow.com/Report-a-Gmail-Account
Official Google Gmail Abuse Report page: https://support.google.com/mail/contact/abuse (I submitted feedback to Google that Hangouts needs better warnings in place similar to G Suite when you try to email someone out of your organisation).
I regret having used my personal Hangouts email account, usually I don't for strangers but this one time, she seemed real for the Facebook search cross check I did (I never added her on FB though), but it was a totally different girl with the same name, just lived in Sydney too. The attackers are getting smarter at this or maybe it was by chance the same named girl was also on FB in my local city.
Any how, after this incident I have definitely clamped down on online privacy a WHOLE lot more. I've set my Instagram, Twitter and parts of LinkedIn to private as well as changed a lot of my content on FB to friends only. Now I need to clean out my friends list.
I found a few good links here:
https://www.esafety.gov.au/women/being-social/online-dating/dating-apps-and-websites
https://www.esafety.gov.au/women/being-social/social-media/social-media-safety-tips
I read last night that Facebook has a tool where you can submit images to them to pre-screen obscene images via Machine Learning as the uploader uploads them. https://www.facebook.com/safety/notwithoutmyconsent/tools (mentions eSafety as well).
Luckily before this happened I had my Facebook's friend’s list visibility list set to only me. I’ve never made it public, at most, temporarily friends only. But 'only me' is your best bet, I mean, do you really know everyone you’ve added on Facebook?
The attacker started browsing tags of people in my public photos and threatened to send copies of the unknowingly recorded video to them. They seemed to have uploaded it to their own fake FB profile with visibility to set to 'only me' and then changed their profile's name to my full name. I quickly reported the profile and it was removed within a few minutes. Facebook also has a team of people monitoring for explicit content in the background any way if you never report. There's even an FB threats reporting tool if you happen to have some of the media. https://www.facebook.com/help/contact/567360146613371 I was never shown the video, just screenshots.
It seems like the attacker left me alone literally the moment I stopped contacting them over Hangouts. It definitely felt like a criminal syndicate organisations running in the Phillipines (their Hangouts chat was in Philippino language), noobs. Also contained notepads of their copy and pasted transcripts of what to say to victims. :(
My wish is that Google or OkCupid worked with FBI/Interpol to track down these bastards. People literally kill themselves over this. https://www.thedailybeast.com/sextortion-killed-their-son-cops-looked-the-other-way
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/prosecutors-bid-extradite-filipino-man-7394580
https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/long-reads/article/2069492/sextortion-lies-and-videotape-philippine
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6978369/facebook-scammers-posing-as-beautiful-women-are-conning-men-into-sending-sex-photos-before-blackmailing-them-for-thousands-of-pounds/
Here are some tips I did:
Good graphic here on sextortion https://twitter.com/CioAmaro/status/1187333675534434307
It's even happening in the job market too. https://www.howtogeek.com/410387/scam-alert-fake-job-recruiters-tried-to-catfish-us-here%E2%80%99s-what-happened/
Just don't even let a scammer trick you into thinking your life is over. Even if your content does surface, there will always be ways to mitigate that content's spread (it often won't be a big spread any way since Social Networks and Search Engines will try to down play that content and have tools to remove it) and if they attacker has sent it to your family or friends, just rest assured, your family will come around as to what's happened.
If you need help, please contact Life line 13 11 14, https://www.lifeline.org.au/ or your relevant country contact body for these queries. I contacted eSafety for my case https://www.esafety.gov.au/image-based-abuse/action/remove-images-video/. I haven't been to the Police yet - if at all, I don't know if I should. They would seem pretty powerless in this overseas cybercrime case, and I don't really have the time to report it to them.
Just remember, no life is worth a sextortion attempt. :(
Thank you!
submitted by sextortionhope to catfish [link] [comments]

Going full-time after 2 years, 2M+ downloads. Learnings and where to go from here.

Hey everyone,
I recently made the decision to leave my career and company of 7 years to pursue podcasting full-time. Today marks the 2-year anniversary of starting my podcast, and one week from today will be my last day at my day-job. I've always appreciated learning from other people's journey's on this sub, so I thought people might be interested in hearing a bit about my own. I'd also like to get some thoughts on where to go from here. Because, to be honest, there is a big part of me that is terrified :)
To preface, before starting the podcast I had no following. This is from scratch. And on the download numbers, it's a daily pod, so that's across 400 episodes. I'm seeing around 8,500/ep right now. This will be long, TL;DR at the bottom.
BACKGROUND
I've always loved business, technology, and investing. For the last 5-6 years, I have been fascinated with and obsessively followed one company that captured my interest on all of those fronts: Tesla. A few years back, I found myself spending 2-3 hours every day after work reading about the company and the industry and the stock and the technology. I'd talk about Tesla to anyone that would listen. After about three years of this, I noticed two major things.
  1. I was still spending the same amount of time every day reading about these things, but I wasn't learning as much anymore.
  2. The amount of consistent misinformation, poor journalism, and just plain inaccurate reporting was staggering. A few friends had made the decision to invest in the company and would constantly be asking about some report on CNBC or from some major newspaper, which I could then easily add context to or correct inaccuracies, etc.
INCEPTION
One day I had a 9 hour drive, and on that drive it occurred to me to search for Tesla podcasts. There were a handful, maybe 4 that were active. They were interesting, but none of them quite captured what I was actually interested in (with 1 exception) -- the business and the technology and the future. They were either focused on the cars themselves or were recaps of the news for the week. Solid podcasts, but not enough of what I wanted to hear about Tesla. At this point, the idea clicked for me. I could do this. I'm already spending so much time on Tesla and people are already asking me for my thoughts. Why not just spend a few minutes a day recapping my thoughts, then my friends won't have to ask! When I got home from that trip, I spent a couple hours watching videos on how to publish a podcast, spent a day or two tinkering with my podcast art, bought a domain, created a Twitter account, recorded and published my first episode. I already had equipment from tinkering around with recording music. From idea inception to launch was less than a week.
GOALS
Even though the idea came quickly, a podcast fit really well into things I was already trying to accomplish in my personal life. As a natural introvert, I had long since felt like my speaking ability was the one thing that would hold my career back. I had been reading a lot about neuroplasticity and was fascinated by the ability of the brain to physically change neural pathways based on repetitive action (derp, fancy way of saying you get better with practice). But for some reason, the physical adjustment to the brain really resonated with me and I realized that my whole life, my brain has been wired for input. Sitting in class, listening, reading, learning. Sure, you get speaking opportunities, but they're infrequent. Understanding that my brain would rewire itself if I did something every day gave me the motivation I needed to commit to doing a podcast every day. In addition to helping people be better informed, that is the reason I chose a daily format. I shared some thoughts on my goals in a post about 2.5 months into the start of my podcast.
Personally, I had three goals when starting my podcast. (Tesla Daily, news and analysis on Tesla, Inc.)
-Improve my speaking ability to help me advance in my career. This is why I chose to do my podcast daily.
-Get 1,000 listeners per episode
-Generate revenue to offset an unnecessary personal cost I will be taking on soon.
In that post I shared how those goals had quickly evolved.
Now that I am close to achieving my original goals, I have new goals in addition to shifting from my original goals. I am continuing to focus on improving my speaking ability and gaining listeners, but my motives have changed a little. I am no longer tying to drive revenue to offset a personal cost. I would now restate my goals as follows.
-Improve my speaking ability to help me advance in my career.
-Get 2,000 listeners per episode
-Generate revenue to fund advertising and fun giveaways to grow the audience
My shift with goal #3 is due to the success that I have had so far, and opening up my eyes to the possibilities of the podcast. I believe my niche is larger than I originally thought, and I believe the topics to be more expansive. I want to grow the audience primarily to increase my credibility which I can leverage to bring more and more influential guests on the show to create better and better content. This also allows me to improve my own personal brand and network which has become more appealing to me than the profit I could make from the show.
I have made great progress in some regards, but a lot of work yet to do.
GROWTH
Ok, so how did I grow? This is pretty niche, right? Well, that was the feedback I got from another redditor when I shared my podcast on teslamotors a couple days after starting.
Daily? Seems like you're only catering to an awfully small niche of Tesla enthusiasts who want daily updates in an audio form and don't already get their information from online sources. You should make sure you know who you're targeting. I would do monthly. Let people stay up to date without obsessing. Not everyone has the time to stay up to date that folks in /teslamotors do nor do they need all the detail. It gives you more time to polish every episode, line up advertisers, etc.
This person was genuinely trying to help, and I appreciated the feedback. But thank goodness I trusted myself and didn't listen. I knew from the discussion I was seeing online -- people like talking about Tesla. I like talking about Tesla. There was no downside to trying to do daily. It would always be easier to reduce frequency if I needed to.
Back to growth, I attribute my growth to three main factors. The first two are passion and expertise.
With a daily podcast you are putting out a lot of content. There is a lot of opportunity to create something that someone might tell someone else about. But the signal to noise ratio is important, for any podcast. If I put out worthless episodes 90% of the time, people are gonna tune out for the 10% that matters, and my podcast goes no where. I'm a perfectionist, so I could never put out anything I wasn't happy with. This is where the pain comes in. My podcast is about 8 minutes per day. For the past two years, I've spent ~3 hours a day to research, analyze, fact-check, ideate, edit, and publish. That's been hard and has required sacrifice. It's meant 70-80 hour work weeks for two years when added on to my day job. Everyone's process doesn't need to be this painstaking. But for me, it's what works. Without passion, no way I would be able to work that hard every night after the full time job. That passion (and now, my listeners) is the only thing that will get me through. The second is a natural outcome of passion, and that's expertise. I think this goes without saying for any podcast that aims to inform rather than entertain. I have to be the subject matter expert. If there is something I'm not sure about, I don't rest until I figure that thing out and can explain it well. Sometimes that means publishing my podcast at midnight and getting 6 hours of sleep before doing the whole thing all over again.
The third factor is product/market fit. If my podcast was Cotton Candy Daily, it wouldn't be as popular (I don't think?), no matter how perfect it was. I was fortunate that my passion aligned well enough with other people's. But at the same time, that person above who was literally on the Tesla subreddit said it was too niche. You might have to give it a shot to really know. I never thought I'd see the numbers I'm seeing now.
All of that is content related. My growth has been from great content. The credibility that has earned me has gotten me on a couple other podcasts and youtube videos along the way, and those have added a nice bump. But I got there by being an expert, not by marketing. I simply haven't had time to do any real marketing. I do social on twitter, but that's about it. Let me know if you want any specifics on the growth and I can try and answer.
FUNDING
I'm probably in a unique situation here. I've never run an ad. I've never done any paywall content. I've relied 100% on patron support which has been strong, currently around $1,600/mo. Not as lucrative as ads, but at least enough for me to get something for my time. I believe this is because my audience knows how much work I put in and they want and have the means to support that. Idealistically, I want this to stay the same as I go full time. I put the call out to my audience on today's episode when I announced this move. We'll see how it goes. My hope is to roughly cover my cost of living so that I can sustain myself while having the time to build on this base (see future section).
If you're curious on my Patreon set up, it's very simple. The only real incentive is shoutouts on the podcast. This is probably an area I can improve on. I don't want anything critical to be paywalled, but I can probably do a better job of rewarding my patrons for being such amazing supporters.
FUTURE
The podcast has given me confidence that I have a voice. I am capable of making an impact and providing value to people. That's why I am making the move. I want to do as much of that as I can. Quitting frees up my time for a number of different ideas. Podcasting can be a relatively poor medium for spreading information, there's nothing naturally funneling traffic to you. Discovery is weak. So it's all word of mouth. My goal is to inform people, so I'm hoping for the podcast to free up enough time for me to do that more effectively. Of course this will allow me to do a better job with the podcast which I am excited about, but really I view that as just the tip of the iceberg. What lies beneath the surface, I'm not sure yet. But I'm really excited to have a chance to find out.
LEARNINGS
TL;DR
Started a podcast in a pretty niche area two years ago, growth has exceeded my expectations and I just quit my solid job to continue building on this base even though I'm losing the vast majority of my income. My podcast has given me the confidence to bet on myself. Please let me know if you have questions or suggestions.
submitted by TeslaDaily to podcasting [link] [comments]

Are you ready for Community Day? Here's everything you need to know!

Wanted to put together a compilation of tips for our upcoming community day. Sound off in the comments if I miss anything important.

Basics

Date
Saturday, February 24th
Time
Europe, Middle East, Africa, India: 10am to 1pm UK or GMT, 11am to 2pm CET
North America, South America and Greenland: 11am to 2pm PST, 2pm to 5pm EST
Asia Pacific: 12pm to 3pm JST
Official Site <- Specific event info!
Countdown Site
Know where you're going to be playing
Community is a huge part of this game. Make the most of your day- including having fun with people you enjoy!
While still in it's early stages, you can try to find you local Discord group here. Community day is the perfect opportunity to organize a get-together with your local raiders and players. If you don't have a group local, it can be you that starts one!
Show up early BUT
because Stardust for catches is tripled, I don't advise catching anything until start time (and I'm not sure if existing spawns can change to Dratini) Showing up early is still great to familiarize youyourself with the lovation, park, and use the restroom before the event. If you’re going somewhere without a restroom, plan accordingly.
Prepare for your day accordingly
water, winter jacket, rain poncho, as well as snacks/lunch, water, medical nessessities, battery packs, and fully charged devices.
A small note on location/weather
If you have the ability to choose it: Windy weather = Boosted Dratini. This will increase your stardust/level on those catches but decrease your overall catchrate/Pinap-rate as higher leveled Pokemon are harder to catch. Personally, I'm not going to stress about Windy as my local groups have already picked a spot and both have positive and negative.
If the previous event is any indication, biome is likely irrelevant. Pikachu were everywhere and I would expect Dratini rates to be similar in every location (similar to how Luvdisc was able to spawn everywhere recently for those that missed the last Community Day). Dratini should be plentiful regardless of where you chose to play.

In-game prep

6/7 Incense + Lures
If you want to make a serious dent in your Dragon Medal, having incense running will increase your rates. 7 insures no downtime as soon as the event starts. Dratini CAN spawn through incense and lures if this event works like last time. (though incense started before the event may not spawn Dratini. let me know if you have info on this) Lures started before the posted start times will only last 30 minutes. Lures started any point after that will last the full 3 hours. Keep walking! Incense spawns more Pokémon while you’re moving!
Pinaps, Razz, and Ultraballs
I'm going to fill my inventory with as many of these as possible.
Pokeballs for Go+ users
Likely catching everything will be impossible. This may give you some free catches you wouldn't otherwise have time for.
6/7 Star Pieces
If you want to maximize your grinding, this event is going to be quite insane. I also plan on having Star Pieces constantly running. It's not too late to stockpile some coins to purchase some Star Pieces for the event!
Nanab too?
Because you'll be running star pieces, saving these bad berries to dump too will grant you 10 bonus dust and will let you save your good berries. You get a lot more dust from catching so remote feeding during the event window likely isn't worth it (especially with the current increased chance to crash). Your bag space is likely spent better on any of the previous items though. If you use 7 Star Pieces, dumping your Nanabs on the rollover Pieces at the beginning and end of the event could be useful.
Because of the above, I'll ALSO make sure to be in a few gyms beforehand that I can remote berry to easily but wait till after the event proper to take advantage of that.
Lastly, Lured and Incensed Pokemon DO attack and dodge more, so Nanabing them may allow you to nab a few more while wasting less balls/time.
A Note on Eggs
There are NO special eggs and there are NO egg related bonuses. This is simply to maximize your gains while Star Pieces are already running.
Players that constantly run 9 incubators should continue to do so. Players that will only run a few should follow this advice: (please if anyone can dig up the thread that originally suggested this I'd love to give them credit)
Start saving 2ks now. This is because, if using the free incubator, 2ks have the best dust/km ratio. That means if you're not using any blue incubators, your preference should be 2ks, then 5ks, then 10ks. If you have 10ks and can super incubate, do so, and consider prioritizing 5ks as the event ends (unless you're using 7 Star Pieces with the rollover strategy). I currently have 6 2ks and 2 10ks and plan on super incubating any additional 10ks I find. Also, you can force quit to skip multiple hatch animations.

Make Room in Your Storage

Players all over the world caught 80-200 Pikachu alone last event! This time, because of bonus stardust, you'll likely want to catch 'em all. Pokemon Storage availability is also super important prep to make sure you're not wasting time during the event figuring out which Pokemon to delete. The more bag space you can leave yourself, the better, based on how much you'll play. Don't be afraid to over-delete, especially on evolve fodder. Lures and incense will fill your bag quick! Shameless plug: I am currently editing a video series wherein I discuss which Pokemon you can safely transfer (and power up, etc.)

Catch Ratios and When to Berry

u/nadia_diaz did a lot of the ground work already, especially geared at players with limited resources.
Bronze/Silver Badge
Gold Badge ~ Original Post
Bronze 10-287 Pinap (90% catchrate), then consider Razz as it increases
Silver 10-334 Pinap (90% catchrate), then consider Razz as it increases
Gold 10-381 Pinap (90% catchrate), then consider Razz as it increases
Begin to use Razz and GRB at your own discretion and spawnrates. You'll likely have a lot more catching at your ready so increasing your odds and Stardust is a good strategy. I want to also just note that CP isn't what affect catchrate- only pokemon level, so slightly higher CP Pokemon continue to be safe bets as they're unlikely 100% IV.
Remember that your badge may change during the event so all of these are useful. Also remember that every evolve counts towards the badge, including Dratini -> Dragonair. I don't believe many players should take advantage of that but it's worth knowing. Factor into that the ability to transfer Dratini to get you that little bit closer. I personally Pinap every Swablu and Horsea too because every bit helps.

Maximizing Your Time - New Mechanical Exploit Found

There are a lot of priorities to consider with Draco Meteor, Dragon Badges, possible Shinies, and more- the most dedicated players will be focused on one thing, gaining as much stardust as possible- and that means catching EVERYTHING possible. Any efforts to maximize your time should be strongly considered. This thread details an exploit WITH VIDEO that is repeatable, practicable, and unlikely to get patched out before Community Day. If you're comfortable using something that may be considered a bug or an exploit, start practicing this now. Maximizing your time could likely be a combination of this, Go+ing and Shiny checking (not confirmed)- but this process is extremely fast and worth practicing and also a great method to Shiny check in and of itself. At the very least, practice the technique to familiarize yourself with it. If done incorrectly it can crash or force you to restart your game so come prepared.
Warning: This trick does not work on incensed Pokemon (though the exploit functions normally on lures) as detailed here. Incensed Pokemon are easily identifiable by the pink cloud ring around them. Either catch these Pokemon normally or via Go+. I recommend manual catches for anything weather boosted or evolved as those will award even more Stardust so they're worth it (in addition to Dratini)! One last tip while using the animation skip technique; don't immediately click the same Pokemon you just attempted to catch. Instead, move onto the next Pokemon in that cluster. This prevents you from seeing Error 25. If the Pokemon did flee or get caught, it will simply not be there, otherwise you can attempt again.

Working Together

The last Community Day was almost a solo competition in catching Pikachu in both Medals and Shinies with the double XP portion encouraging teamwork and community. During this event, many players will probably find themselves wanting to raid before or after the event window, with Stardust being the focus. One opportunity for people to work together is in IV checking Dratini. We may be working with limited time in terms of Draco Meteor (more on that below) so knowing which Dratini are junk and which are WondeAmazing quickly can save you time appraising in case you need to evolve during the event. Shout out any stellar catches and encourage teamwork. There's no sense in everyone appraising the exact same Dratinis.
The following string can be used to look for perfect IV Dratini
147&cp12,cp38,cp64,cp90,cp116,cp142,cp168,cp194,cp219,cp245,cp270,cp295,cp319,cp344,cp368,cp393,cp418,cp442,cp467,cp491,cp516,cp540,cp565,cp590,cp614,cp639,cp663,cp688,cp713,cp737,cp749,cp762,cp774,cp786,cp799
Pokemon with these CP are not guaranteed to be 100% IV but this could help you narrow that search.

Draco Meteor

Dragonite that are evolved or caught during the event window will be given the exclusive move Draco Meteor. This likely means that anything caught and evolved during the event will have get the move, in addition to Dratini caught beforehand and evolved during.
So is Draco Meteor any good?
u/biowpn breaks it down here
Draco Meteor may not be better but it will be legacy and it will be good. A rework favoring Charge moves could happen... and we all know how much Niantic likes charge moves. One huge question I have for the community; Did you only have the 3 hour window to create Surfing Pikachu via TM last community day? I don't remember. If so, this is a decision that will have to be made quickly. You'll probably want to evolve any shiny (not confirmed) Dratini into Meteor but otherwise you'll need to weigh that decision.
Hedging Your Bets?
If you evolve a Dragonite NOT during the event, you're 1/3 to get Outrage, 1/3 to get Hurricane, 1/3 to get Hyper Beam. DURING the event you're 100% to get Draco Meteor. Though likely worse than Outrage fractionally, it will save you Charged TMs if you just need a Dragon move. If you know that in the future you will want your Pokemon to have Outrage, WAITING to evolve gives you a 1/3 shot to not have to spend a TM, followed by a series of 50/50 chances. Evolving now and then switching to Outrage later therefor, on average, will cost one additional TM to acquire.

Shiny Chance

We don't know yet weather or not Shiny Dratini will spawn during the event. What we do know is that Shiny Pikachu spawned somewhere around the rate of 1 IN 22.7 during the last Community Day.

Thoughts on TMing

For those not aware, last community day (and Christmas), while Legacy movesets were granted to Pikachu, players realized that you could TM Pikachu for a guaranteed change to that move. Niantic has stated that this will NOT be the case this Community Day.
"Remember Trainers, Fast TMs and Charged TMs will not grant exclusive moves during #PokemonGOCommunityDay. To learn an exclusive move, you must catch or evolve the featured Pokémon during Community Day hours."
"Note: Fast TMs and Charged TMs will not grant exclusive moves during Community Day. To learn the exclusive move, you must catch or evolve the featured Pokémon during Community Day hours."
What sticks out to me is the word "remember," though this is NEW information. This leaves me with some questions and I would not be surprised if pre-existing Dragonites CAN be TMd during the event. We will get this answer as soon as the first group of trainers has Community day go live, so pay attention to the Road when the event goes live. I will also update this space.

*Checking in

I almost forgot! Another reason to arrive early or stick around let is to check in with the Silph Road's handshake/badge feature. My local discord will likely be doing check ins (and raids) before and after so people don't have to break from catching. You can set up your Trainer Card ahead of time here.

Thanks for reading!

Will also be updating this guide with any other info that seems pertinent from the comments. Let me know if there's unanswered questions or you've got an idea that I didn't really discuss.
Lastly, this may all be information YOU know but not every trainer follows the Road as closely as you. Spread the word and have fun!
~NoLucksGiven
submitted by NoLucksGiven to TheSilphRoad [link] [comments]

FDev Team's Answers to a LOT of Questions on Various Topics, Including Beyond Ch1 (from forums)

Key to FDev team members:
To easily follow the FDev team's communications on Reddit, forums, Twitter, etc, use the Elite Dev Tracker (linked in the sidebar).
 
Will's collated answers from livestream-chat questions
CRIME AND PUNISHMENT
How does this affect pirates and what’s the point of being a pirate?
The cost of piracy and smuggling are not increasing substantially, only the 'murder' crime is being boosted. We have also added the megaship interactions that will offer new gameplay options for pirates. You can read about new megaship interactions here or watch the livestream here to find out more.
 
Can markets be updated to attract people to anarchy systems for bigger profits, encouraging more risk for everyone involved?
This already happens, to a degree, but we will look into increasing this.
 
What is going to happen to things like smuggling, spec-ops, pirating, and anything else that gives you bounties? Are we going to have a viable 'pirate route' for credits and reputation?
The crime segment of this update is focusing on ensuring consequences for crime are appropriate. In addition, having crimes attached to ships gives you more options when deciding how to deal with your criminal status.
 
If one CMDR pirates another CMDR with limpets (not even shooting them) will they now suffer under the new mechanic? Are they going to lose access to Starport services as well?
Strictly regarding piracy, they will not suffer any more than they do now. Black markets are always available at ports, even when with anonymous access.
 
Are services restricted in Anarchy Starports?
Services are restricted at ports located in jurisdictions where your ship is wanted. Anarchy jurisdictions recognize no crimes, so will never be restricted. No authority ships, including ATR, are available in Anarchy jurisdictions.
 
How do these changes work for PVE?
The changes to the crime system apply to PvE and PvP equally.
 
How will these changes affect accidental fire charges?
The threshold for accidental fire becoming a crime is increasing, allowing more damage to occur before triggering. There will be a new crime of accidental weapon discharge that triggers at the current threshold, but this will only result in a fine.
 
Will Starports shoot at us if a wingmate becomes wanted?
They currently don't, and will continue not to.
 
What happens if you have accidentally forget to turn off 'report crimes against me' off... can we FORGIVE?
Currently, no. The status of your crime reporting software should always be a top priority.
 
If you shoot a wanted ship before finishing a scan will the fine disappearonce the scan shows the ship as wanted?
No. When you shoot at a ship before scanning it, you are, in the eyes of the law, committing the crime of 'Assault'. Scan before you bam!
 
What happens if you can't pay the fines at detention centers?
If you can't pay off your legal bill, even by using the 'Creditor's Loan' and selling other ships as collateral you will become bankrupt and must choose the default Sidewinder option.
 
What if you can't pay at the detention centre? Can we break people out of the detention area?
You can't avoid the law. Legal fees must be paid. It's not currently possible to break people out of the detention area.
 
Kill Warrant Scanner will reveal the single largest bounty- Can someone explain why is that? Isn't the point of KWS to 'reveal' ALL sins of particular NPC or CMDR across all jurisdictions in the bubble and potentially get a huge variable list of bounties when criminal is destroyed?
The way the KWS worked was incompatible with the new crime system, which is why it had to change it.
 
If you have a fine/bounty, so have no station facilities, can you still access the Black Market (should there be one) to sell any illegal cargo you have?
Of course. It's the black market, they rely on villains like you.
 
Will all current bounties (including dormant bounties) and fines beconverted to the new system when the update is released? Will they be cleared before the changes go live?
There will be a one-time amnesty of all crimes when the change goes live.
 
If a player is murdered and has a full cargo hold of trade goods, is that calculated into the combined murder bounty?
No.
 
If I rack up huge amounts of fines for looting and pirating NPC ships, what kind of bounty would I get for that?
As long as you didn't kill those ships, the legal costs will not be any more than they currently are. Only the 'murder' crime has seen a significant bounty increase.
 
Are bounties affected by system states like Anarchy, Corporate, etc?
There is some minor variation based on factions.
 
Will we now be safe inside Starport docks regardless of scanned bounties or not?
No, the changes do not provide any protection - if you are scanned inside the dock expect to be destroyed.
 
If I commit a crime (murder) in my Python and then switch ship before I'm a destroyed – on which ship will my bounty be based upon?
The bounty remains with the ship that committed the crime, in this example, the Python. Remember though, the bounty will never expire, you'll have to pay Interstellar Factors to clean the ship or end up getting destroyed in it and pay the legal costs before the bounty is removed.
 
Why don't you lose bounty when you get destroyed by a bounty hunter?
When a bounty hunter destroys your ship, you will respawn at a detention centre where you will have to pay off your bounty value for the jurisdiction and any other costs, such as rebuy, after which the bounty is removed from your ship. Bounties from other jurisdictions are not removed because the factions are not informed of the kill.
 
Will there be any indicators for missions that result in gaining bounties? For example, if I receive a 'tip off' to go to a settlement and scan its data points, will it be clear that this mission might result in bounties?
We will be doing our best to ensure any mission in which you may now be asked to perform an illegal action will have a warning.
 
Are there other ways to get rid of a bounty even if it's a very low bounty?
Interstellar Factors in Low Security and Anarchy systems will be shown on the galaxy map once you have visited a systems and allow you to pay off any fines and bounties.
 
How are the new changes to bounties going to affect the 'Top 5 Local Bounty Board' and'Crime Report' for systems?
The top five bounties list will remain, and be joined by a top five 'power bounties this cycle' list to help those pledged to powers.
 
If a wing of commanders attack you but one of the wing doesn't attack (but is hostile toward you), will we get a bounty for attacking them?
Yes. You can only legally attack ships that you know are wanted (i.e. you have scanned them and detected they are wanted anyway, or they have attacked and hit your ship, which makes them wanted and auto scans them for you) in the current jurisdiction.
 
What would happen if someone sold a module from a 'hot' ship to another player?
It's not possible to sell modules to another player.
 
Will you be able to transfer ships around anarchy systems if they're 'hot'?
A hot ship can be transferred to any location where it is not wanted. Since anarchies do not recognize crimes, you are always able to transfer hot ships to them.
 
Is it safe to say that there will be no option for the player in question to simply sell said 'hot' ship, and thus avoid paying the penalties? Can any criminal simply store modules and sell ship hull to fix his record? And will there be a 'wanted' status on ship modules? If your ship becomes 'hot' - is it possible to just change the modules to another ship and avoid the penalties?
Ship can be sold but the interstellar factors take a cut. Any module associated with 'hot' ships are also hot and any module added to the hot ship also become hot. Hot modules cannot be added to a clean ship without paying for them to be cleaned.
 
What's to stop groups of players simply getting huge bounties and notoriety values, only then to take it in turns destroying each other to obviously not only reset their notoriety, but also claiming nice big inflated bounties? Or, are the claimable bounties (for destroying a CMDR who's wanted) not the same as what's being applied to their rebuy?
The maximum claim for a bounty is still currently one million credits. In this instance, the villain is still going to get landed with eye-watering fees that they will have to pay, assuming they have racked up a lot of murders with a high notoriety. Amount paid by the criminal is not the same as amount claimed by the bounty hunter.
 
Is there a system in place to stop players intentionally blowing themselves up to reduce notoriety?
You only lose notoriety when your ship is destroyed by authorities or bounty hunters that have detected your bounty. In these cases, you will have to pay legal costs as you will respawn at a detention centre.
 
Will higher notorious levels increase the value of Black Market goods?
No.
 
CRIME & PUNISHMENT - Powerplay
Will we gain Interstellar Bounties when trying to grind out merits?
Powerplay activities will not incur bounties. Instead, they will incur 'Power Bounties'. These can only be detected and claimed by pledged ships, and do not use the criminal flow for respawning, so no additional legal fees are incurred.
 
Will Powerplay bounties still be active if you defect to another Power?
These bounties will be removed upon defection or leaving Powerplay.
 
Will attacking hostile Powerplay ships at station be a crime?
Attacking any ship near a Starport is a crime/will trigger a lethal response. This will not change.
 
What is the rebuy cost for dying in Powerplay-related activities?
There are no additional legal fees when ship destruction occurs due to Powerplay interactions.
 
What will happen to merits for killing a wanted Powerplay CMDR?
Nothing has changed to the way merits are handed out.
 
With the introduction of the ATR, how will undermining Powers work?
Because Powerplay activities now use Power bounties which do not involve the authorities, ATR will never be summoned for them.
 
What does this mean for Powerplay (in regards to ATR) I definitely feel as if ships that are wanted for powerplay purposes should be immuneto the summoning of ATRs. Any input?
This is correct. Ships with Power bounties will not draw the attention of the authorities, including ATR.
 
WING MISSIONS
Does a wing mission disappear if a wing is disbanded?
In this instance the owner of the mission will still have the active mission, if the wing is reformed then they can share it with their wingmates once more.
 
Is there a reason why all missions cannot be completed in wings? I feel like this should be player choice, for example, multiple small ships can take a mission that might normally need a single big ship.
It’s a tremendous amount of work, requiring a lot of new functionality (such as the mission depot, partial complete, etc.) and a reworking of almost every mission template in the game. It was only feasible to add wing missions the way we have.
 
Do you think the introduction of wing missions will allow players to help and mentor newer players better, and aid friends in acquiring bigger ships faster?
It’s a possibility, we will of course be monitoring how the current rules around if and when we pay out rewards are working and if they need changing to maintain the overall balance of the game.
 
If you complete wing missions alone, will you receive more rewards than if two players completed the wing mission? Is the mission payout going to be split amongst wingmates?
No, the payout isn't split, it's duplicated. Each member of the wing will be viable for the same rewards.
 
If you leave the wing halfway through a mission: what happens then with completing the mission for each commander?
If you are not part of the wing when the mission completes you will not receive the rewards. Also note that if you have any cargo from that mission by that point, you are eligible to receive a fine.
 
Will a wing mission fail if everyone else in your wing disconnects?
No, as the owner has the main copy of the mission he can continue to complete it or reform a wing and share it again.
 
Do I need to be in the same system as my wingmate to share and accept a wing mission?
No.
 
Will there be wing missions that are harder than standard missions, rather than larger quantity - like "Kill 4 Thargoid Basilisk Interceptors"?
As mentioned on the stream, there are assassination missions that we are hoping fulfil this idea.
 
Can wing missions be completed solo?
Yes.
 
Are these wing mission changes also carrying over into non-wing missions? If I'm in a 50T cargo ship, can I grab a 200T cargo mission?
You can accept wing missions and perform them solo. With non-wing missions being linear, the mission depot (for wing missions) treat the mission as a loop and this inclusion changes missions on a fundamental level. So, normal delivery missions with not gain the mission depot at this time.
 
What happens if a wingmate no longer wants to contribute to the mission and doesn't abandon it?
This is the sort of area where we feel wings will have to police themselves.
 
Can wings accept multiple missions at the same time?
Each member of the wing can share one mission with their wingmates at a time. A single player may have multiple unshared wing missions. This is something we will be looking at during the beta.
 
Will you be adding in NPC wingmates?
Not at this time, no.
 
Will we get bigger wings (6 or 8 players) or perhaps have linked wings?
Not at this time, no.
 
MISSIONS - Types
In the livestream, we saw changes to the way cargo missions work, will these improvements be made for passenger missions? For example, possible bulk passenger routes (like bus routes).
This isn't planned at the current time no.
 
Will there be wing missions involving data point scanning or destroying generators?
Before deciding on more types of wing missions, we need to see how the current batch of wing missions (in the coming beta) work out. If new types of wing missions become available in the future, we'll definitely let you know.
 
So, to confirm, it will be possible to spread the load of tonnage between wing ships for a delivery mission?
For a wing delivery mission, yes. For normal delivery missions, no.
 
Will there be bounty hunting wing missions?
There will be some missions that require a wing to destroy a number of pirates, yes.
 
Are there mining wing missions?
Not at this time, no.
 
MISSIONS - Livestream Cargo Mission
Will the rewards shown in the livestream be tweaked or are they final?
As mentioned in the stream, we will look at rewards closer and probably during beta.
 
What if someone dies with the required cargo? Is the mission failed for the entire wing?
This is the exact reason we added the partial complete feature.
 
Why is there no 'fill all available cargo space' button for cargo hauling wing missions?
The clicker was designed to fill your ship quickly while still allowing finer control over what you're doing.
 
For the cargo hauling mission shown, will commanders be able to deliver some of the cargo amounts, at a time, until it's all delivered?
Yes.
 
Any chance we can turn down material mission rewards if we don't carry cargo racks?
The reason we've introduced the mission reward choice feature is so that players can turn down any reward package they don't like.
 
On completion, if someone is no longer a member of the wing? Do they (still) get a reward?
All members of the wing must be present to receive the reward.
 
Is the influence reward per commander or a fixed amount that is shared between commanders?
The influence reward is only available to the owner of the mission due to BGS.
 
If Elite-difficulty missions are chosen and your wing mate has a lesser rank, will they be able to get the wing mission – and if so, will they gain the same amount of reputation from the wing mission?
This is something we will be keeping an eye on during beta as you also have to consider the new reward options (including reputation boost) but currently all players receive the same reward options.
 
Will wing missions affect rank progression differently?
Reputation is a reward, so will work the same way as standard mission rewards.
 
Is it correct that wing members can contribute nothing yet still get the rewards?
Yes, this allows wingmates to act as escorts for larger trade ships for example. Forcing players to contribute cargo is something we have avoided for now but will keep an eye on during the beta.
 
"Livestream schedule - Beyond Chapter One content reveals"
Yeah even a couple of srv vids on the surfaces would have been nice. But still - can't wait to check the out myself.
Ed: We hear ya. We’ll squeeze in a planetary landing on Tuesday
 
"Content Recap - Beyond Chapter One Livestream"
I love what you're doing, TRULY. These changes coming get me so hyped I can barely stand it. These live streams are very disorganised tho, seem very unstructured. Great work tho, Devs!
Ed: Nope. They’re rehearsed and practised. Working with live builds often throws unforeseen problems our way. Also - we are all very busy, so if they ever seem unprepared it’s because we’re all working very hard right up to the point these go live. Thanks.
 
There is one thing i would like to ask which wasn't mentioned in the stream, Does the Chieftain have fighter hangar capabilities?
Steve: I can confirm that the Chieftan does not supports a fighter hanger.
 
I've got some questions regarding the new interaction mechanics with megaships:
  1. Is this new stuff only for megaships with no landing pads, or also for dockable ones?
  2. Will these actions negatively affect the faction that controls the megaship (by reducing influence or triggerig a lockdown for instance)?
  3. Will we have missions to pirate megaships? (for instance, "Steal 10 tons of gold from mining vessel Vulcano").
Steve: Thanks for the questions i can answer:
  1. Just the non dockable megaships for chapter 1.
  2. Crimes will affect the faction and the BGS.
  3. These kinds of missions will be coming in a later beyond update.
 
To which I'd like to add: will Outposts also get these interaction mechanics? The stream mentioned adding these interactions to installations, but outposts have interesting models with lots of places to add interactivity to as well.
Steve: At the moment we plan to add these types on interactions to installations and then investigate where else can benefit from this kind of gameplay. So no for now, but we will see.
 
Hello, is the Trade Data retroactive or do we have to dock/beacon scan each systems again to collect the Trade Data?
Steve: We do plan to make Trade data retroactive, so any systems you have docked in or scanned the nav beacon off will have unlocked trade data when the update is released.
 
Hello, is the Trade Data retroactive or do we have to dock/beacon scan each systems again to collect the Trade Data?
Steve: We do plan to make Trade data retroactive, so any systems you have docked in or scanned the nav beacon off will have unlocked trade data when the update is released.
 
Was it purely a time decision not to show any planetary surfaces in the stream last night?
Steve: Yes i'm afraid it was down to time. There was alot to show and unfortunately it meant we didn't have too much time to actually fly around. on the bright side it does leave something for you guys to see first hand in the beta.
 
What will the distribution of the Tech Broker be? Will Tech Brokers at different locations offer different blueprints? Can there be a correlation between location types and blueprints? Eg we have Scientific Outposts, Industrial Outposts, Military outposts, and similar ranges of settlements. It would be nice to peg eg exploration blueprints, trade/mining blueprints, and weapon blueprints to these types, respectively.
Steve: Tech brokers are distributed based on system stats across human inhabited space. In general terms they should appear in lawful, fairly high security and decently populated systems with certain economy types. I'm not going to go into more specifics as we want you to explore and find these guys.
The broker system can support different types of Tech Broker which would have some correlation to the economy they are available at and there would also be correlation between the type of broker and the blueprints they will offer.
 
I have 2 questions for Steve please. The Tech Brokers look interesting and the items shown in the stream have a taste of what to expect. Will there be a "tech tree" of the items tech brokers can unlock? For example, will going all out for the custom missiles lock you out of another branch of the tree? The second question is will the tech brokers have unique items? In much the way the engineer Felicity Farseer specialises in drive systems, will tech brokers specialise at all?
Steve: Selecting one item to unlock will not block you from buying any other item. We felt this would restrict players too much. You are free to unlock any and all items at your own pace. That said unlocking certain items is linked to certain types of gameplay. What we showed yesterday was just a taster. The best thing about the sytem is it is very expanable giving us and you plenty of flexibility.
At the moment the tech brokers have types which each have a pool of things they can offer. We decided on this approach to make the system as acccessible as possible with larger numbers of brokers in the galaxy rather than just X number in specific locations. But if we decide to we want to make unqiue specilist tech brokers in specific locations we can.
 
Once discovered, will they appear on the galaxy map so we don't have to remember where they are? I'm hoping for a dedicated icon to identify systems that have a Tech Broker that I have already discovered. I really loved the new trade features and planet updates in the stream! Can't wait to try all that out!
Steve: I can confirm that there will be a new By Services option in the Map view Configuration and you will be able to search for starport services including the tech brokers in the galaxy map with a 40LY radius of your current location (similar to the trade data system shown in the live stream) so that you can see where the nearest ones are to you as long as you have discovered them.
 
Ah, that is excellent news. Much appreciated. Will it also display services that have been disabled by states, power influences, story events, UA trolling and the like (perhaps greyed out or with an icon next to them or whatever)?
Steve: Disabled services will not be displayed, so you should never use it to find a location and then find out it is disabled when you get there.
 
Steve, seeing as you've been answering a few questions here I have one for you (apologies if it's been asked). The new recon limpet has sparked a debate about the number of diferent limpet controllers now available vs. the number of internal slots we have in our ships. Do you guys have any thoughts on reworking the whole limpets vs. limpet controllers mechanic? One thought I had was to add a "Limpet Rack" which works in a similar way to the SRV bay in that it would have a number of sub-slots (2 or maybe 3?) into which various limpet controllers could be then be fitted. Any comment at this juncture?
Steve: We have had lots of thoughts about new modules, however none I can share at the moment.
 
Hi Steve, is it a 40ly search around your current location, or is it 40ly around the current cursor position?
Steve: To confirm it is 40ly from your current location. As in it will show you the ones closest to you.
 
"So... that Tech Broker"
I don't think "personal narrative" is a good way to describe this new feature. It's just another system to lock content, like Navy ranks.
Ed: We just mean that it’s different from everyone unlocking the same thing... and building a ship that feels like it’s your own. I think that phrase will make more sense as time goes by.
 
"Devs deserve some love right now !"
Anyone wanna take bets on how many lines the beta launch changelog will be? As long as it contains more info than the 2.4.09 patch notes I'll be happy
Dom: It's actually going to be comprised of a single line... A link to this...
 
"Wing missions and the BGS"
By the way, I was looking the stream and do not find influence information for the mission. In chapter 1 (time 54:45) I see only rep++, but no influence info for the missions. Seems 2 me, that it should be returned to the screen, as shown now. And logfile specs\samples 4 wing missions will be VERY useful. At 1.04.37 influence is the same 4 all the choices... Strange...
Steve: As they were very fond of saying, this was a "hot build". The influence not showing magnitude was a bug which I have since fixed.
An improvement which you may be interested in is that the reputation and influence values will no longer simply be indications of the magnitude this mission type typically does, they will instead be fuzzily derived directly from the actual values for this particular instance of the mission.
In this instance, despite not being shown, the magnitude will have been the same for all choices; as there was no influence boosted reward option offered for that mission.
 
"Progress on Mode Swapping exploits"
When 2.4 landed we had a glorious mission board with lots of missions to do and they took it away, why? It was damn near perfect.
Dom: Missions are generated on our servers, these are then delivered to the client. The initial board sizes in 2.4 were too large to produce a satisfactory experience for users. We tuned the number to still be more than twice as many missions as you were getting on a board prior to 2.4, though.
The reason "mode switching" works is because if you connect to a different server, it has a different board of missions. Solo mode should always be using a separate set of servers to the multiplayer modes (because we don't try to cluster players by geography, since they can never meet eachother in game), so switching from Open to Solo will always cause a server switch.
It is undesirable and technically an exploit (It allows the players to derive an advantage from game systems unintended by the devlelopers.) but we're not going to take action against people using it at this point.
We've thought of a few ways to fix it and it is on our list of things to fix eventually, but it is a fairly substantial chink of work for multiple teams and other things get prioritised in front of it.
 
Pardon my ignorance (last time I read anything about mode hopping was more than a year ago), but wasn't at some point a change to the mission system where there was a limit to the number of missions of the same type? 3 or so? I'm just curious, what happened to that?
Dom: These were applied on a per-template basis and for the most part were removed when issues we had with mission stacking were solved. They were primarily used in the case of massacre missions, where players could stack multiple missions for the same targert and progress each mission from a single kill. Since you now can only progress one mission per faction from a single kill, this cap has been removed.
 
Are you in a position to comment on *why the mission boards are different on different servers? If the same seed was used for the RNG on each server then, presumably (to the layman), the mission boards could be the same between servers - other than the fact that CMDRs would be removing missions from the board by taking them on.*
Dom: The quick answer is because the same seed is not used on the servers and making them do so would be non-trivial. I've been doing some work in the background to unify certain of their seeds a bit more (mostly to minimise webserver data cache misses, but also to bring mission generation closer together), but it would take time to bring them fully into line with eachother.
 
Thanks for replying to my post. Can I ask what was unsatisfactory for players about receiving more missions? Was it a networking issue? I.e their old dial up modem's cant keep up?
Dom: A mix of several things. It introduced a lot more traffic in the network layer, for one. Which somewhat gummed up the works of the server (part of that could have been how I tried to use it rather than an underlying issue, but to fix that I'll need to go through and refactor, which takes time).
There will always be the people with bad connections, but the partial mission board was a concession to them, so we're fine with a certain amount of it. There was also a lot of negative player sentiment about the board taking longer to load because it was delivering considerably more data, so we took that into account.
If we can overcome some of these issues, we may be able to tweak up the values again. At which point it may also warrant getting GUI involved to help display them more attractively.
 
I don't mean to put you on the spot but is it true to say that menu-flipping was also a factor in causing a meltdown of the mission-generator? I seem to recall that everything was fine for a couple of days after 2.4 went live and then Rhea was discovered and people started getting these mission-board problems immediately afterwards. Given that menu-flipping is a thing, I can't help thinking that people WILL continue to do that regardless of whether there are 20 missions available or 100 missions. If a player is only taking 2 or 3 missions per menu-flip that's surely going to be easier on the mission-generator than if they're taking 15 missions, menu-flipping, discarding low-value missions and then replacing them with better ones.
Dom: There are other factors, too, but yes. Requesting a mission board was somewhat more expensive and people who were constantly flipping were contributing to constant high load.
 
"[Crime and Punishment] Why ATR ships will be useless?"
They just need to ask a PvP player for advice with making some good engineered ship builds and combine those with the best AI they are able to build... I can hear Sarah drooling...
Sarah: I am super grinning! ATR ships are all super-engineered, all piloted by Elite pilots with everything dialled to max, plus with some extra bits of AI logic thrown in for good measure! They have some pretty awesome weaponry, so don't expect those engineered shields to last long against these beasties! If you fight against these, you WILL be taking damage, so it becomes a question of how much you're prepared to spend on repairs... And if by some miracle you manage to destroy one, expect more and more to come...
submitted by StuartGT to EliteDangerous [link] [comments]

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