Curious about the Bitcoin (BTC) buzz? Do you feel like you missed the BTC train? I’ve done a good amount of due diligence on BTC (starting in 2013) and wanted to share my thoughts.
BTC Summary: It cannot be used a currency. It’s not a tangible asset like gold or other precious metals. It has no revenue, no annual sales, no P/E. It has arguably no inherent worth.
- BTC was not meant to be a speculative financial instrument as it is today. The intent was to create a digital currency, based on the use of blockchains or “distributed ledgers”, to de-centralize institutional banking (aka “big banks”). The general benefits are low transaction fees, almost-instantaneous transactions and, due to the unique nature of blockchains, anonymity.
- BTC has proven itself not to be a credible currency; it’s too volatile. Banks themselves might have the most to gain with BTC as they de-centralize - and make more-efficient - their own internal banking functions. However, they cannot exploit this technology due to its' wild fluctuations of, for example, 100% gains and 50% losses in a single day. In contrast, for Currency Traders on the FOREX, a “wild fluctuation” is USD/EURO $1.08 -> $1.16 and this is over the course of months.
“I see this hugely bullish phenomenon called Bitcoin, what’s going on?”
“I see this hugely bullish phenomenon called Bitcoin, should I invest?”
- During 2013 to 2015 BTC ranged from $30/BTC to $300/BTC. In late 2014, there was a massive buy-in and another one in late 2015. This was China. China had a massive influx of capital over this time and it was strategically converted into BTC. Consider these entities state-controlled institutional investors. What happened next is responsible for BTC’s exponentially increasing valuation: a steady buy-in over the next 2 years, at a self-perpetuating inflated purchase price, with virtually no selloff.
- In September 2017 this reached a crescendo when China’s powers-that-be shut down their own BTC exchange. Institutional buyers were barred from purchasing any more BTC. The price at this point was $5000 and the uncertainty around the halt-of-trading caused the value to fall 40% before settling at $3000. Consider this China’s last “price/share” in a cost-basis analysis.
- No. The cost-basis, the blended “price/share” of all of purchases made my institutional investors in China, is somewhere between $500 and $5000. For discussion purposes let’s call this number $2500. Assume the market will correct down to this. An institutional investor will see the current 400% return and be compelled - if not legally-bound - to sell. Thus, it’s a really bad time to get into BTC. The old adage holds true. Buy low, sell high. Here we have an example of the opposite.
- BTC, as mentioned, is a distributed technology. The computing power needed to “run” the functions necessary to make it all work is distributed over millions of computers world-wide. This is known as bitcoin mining. As an incentive for people to use their personal computers for this purpose a fee is paid out for every BTC mined (~ $10/day/computer). Is bitcoin mining truly distributed? No. China, has massive state-sponsored Bitcoin Mining farms. This, again, gives them a massive advantage over other investors because not only is most of the invested BTC in China but now most of the mining-derived BTC is there, too.
- Litecoin and other digital currencies, although they have a lower “price/share”, they appear tightly pegged to the BTC. Thus they too suffer wild fluctuations which discredit them from being a useful currency. Perhaps better investment option would be in the other “distributed ledger”, non-currency technologies like ICON: https://icon.foundation/en/
References: https://www.coindesk.com/information/what-is-bitcoin/ https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-too-volatile-for-goldman-sachs-says-ceo/ https://www.worldcoinindex.com/coin/bitcoin https://techcrunch.com/2013/11/18/btc-china-series-a/ https://qz.com/1081161/bitcoin-btc-investors-in-china-are-flocking-to-peer-to-peer-platform-localbitcoins-after-the-main-exchanges-shut-down/ http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2113560/chinese-investors-fume-over-beijings-bitcoin-crackdown https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/11/16288898/china-shutdown-rumored-bitcoin-exchanges-crackdown https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/networks/why-the-biggest-bitcoin-mines-are-in-china https://qz.com/1026605/photos-chinas-bitcoin-mines-and-miners/ https://digitalcurrencyindex.io
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