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submitted by jcpersemmn to u/jcpersemmn [link] [comments]

[uncensored-r/Bitcoin] The current state of BTC: A cautious narrative that speaks for itself

The following post by PlanetCheez is being replicated because the post has been silently removed.
The original post can be found(in censored form) at this link: Bitcoin/comments/7m31bj
The original post's content was as follows:
Curious about the Bitcoin (BTC) buzz? Do you feel like you missed the BTC train? I’ve done a good amount of due diligence on BTC (starting in 2013) and wanted to share my thoughts.
  1. BTC was not meant to be a speculative financial instrument as it is today. The intent was to create a digital currency, based on the use of blockchains or “distributed ledgers”, to de-centralize institutional banking (aka “big banks”). The general benefits are low transaction fees, almost-instantaneous transactions and, due to the unique nature of blockchains, anonymity.
  2. BTC has proven itself not to be a credible currency; it’s too volatile. Banks themselves might have the most to gain with BTC as they de-centralize - and make more-efficient - their own internal banking functions. However, they cannot exploit this technology due to its' wild fluctuations of, for example, 100% gains and 50% losses in a single day. In contrast, for Currency Traders on the FOREX, a “wild fluctuation” is USD/EURO $1.08 -> $1.16 and this is over the course of months.
BTC Summary: It cannot be used a currency. It’s not a tangible asset like gold or other precious metals. It has no revenue, no annual sales, no P/E. It has arguably no inherent worth.
“I see this hugely bullish phenomenon called Bitcoin, what’s going on?”
  1. During 2013 to 2015 BTC ranged from $30/BTC to $300/BTC. In late 2014, there was a massive buy-in and another one in late 2015. This was China. China had a massive influx of capital over this time and it was strategically converted into BTC. Consider these entities state-controlled institutional investors. What happened next is responsible for BTC’s exponentially increasing valuation: a steady buy-in over the next 2 years, at a self-perpetuating inflated purchase price, with virtually no selloff.
  2. In September 2017 this reached a crescendo when China’s powers-that-be shut down their own BTC exchange. Institutional buyers were barred from purchasing any more BTC. The price at this point was $5000 and the uncertainty around the halt-of-trading caused the value to fall 40% before settling at $3000. Consider this China’s last “price/share” in a cost-basis analysis.
“I see this hugely bullish phenomenon called Bitcoin, should I invest?”
  1. No. The cost-basis, the blended “price/share” of all of purchases made my institutional investors in China, is somewhere between $500 and $5000. For discussion purposes let’s call this number $2500. Assume the market will correct down to this. An institutional investor will see the current 400% return and be compelled - if not legally-bound - to sell. Thus, it’s a really bad time to get into BTC. The old adage holds true. Buy low, sell high. Here we have an example of the opposite.
  2. BTC, as mentioned, is a distributed technology. The computing power needed to “run” the functions necessary to make it all work is distributed over millions of computers world-wide. This is known as bitcoin mining. As an incentive for people to use their personal computers for this purpose a fee is paid out for every BTC mined (~ $10/day/computer). Is bitcoin mining truly distributed? No. China, has massive state-sponsored Bitcoin Mining farms. This, again, gives them a massive advantage over other investors because not only is most of the invested BTC in China but now most of the mining-derived BTC is there, too.
  3. Litecoin and other digital currencies, although they have a lower “price/share”, they appear tightly pegged to the BTC. Thus they too suffer wild fluctuations which discredit them from being a useful currency. Perhaps better investment option would be in the other “distributed ledger”, non-currency technologies like ICON:
Cheers. -PC
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