The market offers a host of different financial instruments, each of which have their advantages and disadvantages. The following is a comparison of different S&P 500 derivatives, so that you can make informed choices which ones to use. TL;DR version provided at bottom.
| ||SPY ||SPY** Options ||SPX* Options ||/ES & /SP Futures ||/ES & /SP Options ||SPXU ||SPXU Options |
|Option Style ||N/A ||American ||European ||N/A ||European (except quarterlies) ||N/A ||American |
|Option Settlement ||N/A ||SPY Stock ||Cash ||N/A ||1x /ES or /SP contract ||N/A ||SPXU Stock |
|Annual Dividend Yield ||1.85% ||None ||None ||None ||None ||1.85% ||None |
|Net Expense Ratio ||0.0945% ||None ||None ||None ||None ||0.91% ||None |
|Leverage ratio vs SPY ||1:1 ||100:1 ||1,000:1 ||500:1 (/ES), 2,500:1 (/SP) ||500:1 (/ES), 2,500:1 (/SP) ||-30:1 ||-3,000:1 |
|Risk Management ||Stop order (non guaranteed) ||Guaranteed with defined-risk trades ||Guaranteed with defined-risk trades ||Stop order (non guaranteed) ||Guaranteed with defined-risk trades ||Stop order (non guaranteed) ||Guaranteed with defined-risk trades |
|U.S. Taxation ||Traditional capital gains ||Traditional capital gains ||Section 1256 ||Section 1256 ||Section 1256 ||Traditional capital gains ||Traditional capital gains |
|Relative Liquidity ||High ||High ||Med ||High ||Variable ||High ||High |
|Contract Expirations Traded ||N/A ||M/W/F weeklies, monthlies, quarterlies, leaps ||M/W/F weeklies, monthlies, quarterlies, leaps ||M/W/F weeklies, monthlies, quarterlies ||M/W/F weeklies, monthlies, quarterlies ||N/A ||Monthlies |
|Exchanges Where traded ||Most exchanges ||Most exchanges ||CBOE ||GLOBEX ||GLOBEX ||Most exchanges ||Most exchanges |
|Hours traded ||9:30-4 Eastern ||9:30-4:15 Eastern ||9:30-4:15 Eastern ||See here ||See here ||9:30-4 Eastern ||9:30-4:15 Eastern |
|Commissions ||Depends on exchange & broker ||High ||Med ||Med ||Med ||Depends on exchange & broker ||Med-Low |
*Note that SPX cannot be traded, as it is not an ETF like SPY. However, it is possible to trade *options* on SPX. Also, 1 SPY = 1/10 of SPX.
**Note 2: Northstat
helpfully points out that XSP
is a mini-SPX contract (european style, cash settled, and section 1256 tax treatment), but is sized 1/10 of SPX just like SPY. However, at a glance it seems to be pretty thinly traded, so use DD here if you decide to brave the bid/ask spreads.
There are two option styles: American and European. American options can be exercised at any time the option is ITM. European options can only be exercised upon expiration.
European options are simpler and more predictable since no one can exercise on you early and potentially screw up your trades, so I prefer them for day-trading for that reason.
Options can settle to the underlying equity or can settle to cash.
If you sell a cash-secured SPY put that expires ITM, you will be obligated to buy the SPY shares at the strike price, and will receive those SPY shares in your account.
If you sell a cash-secured SPX put that expires ITM, your account will pay the difference between SPX index price and SPX contract strike price in cash. There are no SPX stock/ETF/shares, so it settles with cash instead.
Annual Dividend and Expense Ratios
S&P 500 ETFs will pay dividends to the stock holder. Holding options
on those ETFs won't get you squat - you will only get dividends on shares that you actually in possess of in your account.
You'll notice that inverse ETFs like SPXU pay dividends just like the SPY ETF. That's because when you're shorting shares (which is effectively what ETFs like SPXU are doing), you get the dividends on the borrowed shares if you happen to be holding them on the ex-dividend date.
Most ETFs will also have an expense ratio, which cover the costs of managing the ETF. These fees have a compounding effect against you for ETFs held over the long-term. The SPY ETF expense ratio is fairly low, although it's worth noting that there are some mutual funds like FNILX
which offer a 0% expense ratio.
SPXU has a higher expense ratio in relation to SPY, but both the dividend payment (as well as the expense ratio) are effectively a non-factor, because you should not be holding inverse ETFs for more than a few days. In fact, the promised returns for leveraged inverse ETFs are only on a daily
basis, which is the holding period they're designed for. See here
to understand the problem with longer-term holding periods for leveraged ETFs.
Also keep in mind that some brokers offer a "share lending" program, which will pay you interest on shares loaned to other people who want to short those shares. When loaning your shares, you don't get the dividend payments (the borrower does). But one issue with these programs is that interest paid to you for share loans is taxed at your ordinary income rate, whereas dividends are taxed at the more favorable long-term capital gains rates (more on this further below).
Leverage Ratio Vs SPY
1 SPY = 1/10 SPX
1 /ES = 50 SPX
1 SPXU = 3 SPX
100 units per contract of SPY, SPX, and SPXU. 1 unit per contract of /ES and /SP.
/SP futures and options on 3x-leveraged ETFs have the highest total leverage. Use extra DD when trading these.
First, some terms. Defined Risk
= max loss is guaranteed to some known value. Undefined Risk
= max loss is unconstrained.
With options, you can avoid undefined risk when using the right spreads. For example, debit spreads are one way of limiting the maximum potential loss (which is limited to the debit paid to enter the trade).
With other instruments like stocks, you can set stop-losses as the desired loss levels. However, you run the risk of a gap-down, especially when held overnight or over the weekend, which blows past your stop limit.
Therefore, options are superior when it comes to risk-management when used appropriately. However, not all options trades are defined risk (e.g., naked puts).
Also note that your risk relative to the leverage ratios above. Obviously you are putting a lot more money at risk in one /ES options contract than in one SPY options contract.
The following explains tax implications as of 2020 for a U.S. citizen. It may be different if you are outside the U.S., but I can only speak to the U.S. tax code. Traditional Capital Gains
: 100% short-term
capital gains if holding period <= 365 days, 100% long-term
capital gains otherwise. Taxes are assessed at time of sale, regardless of holding period. Wash-sale rule applies for traditional contracts. Section 1256 Contracts
: 60% long-term
, and 40% short-term
capital gains/losses, regardless of holding period. Taxes are assessed at the end of each calendar year
regardless whether you sold it or not. Wash-sale rule is N/A for 1256 contracts.
I won't post the tax rates
here, but suffice to say as of 2020, long-term capital gains tax rates are much more favorable rate than short-term gains (roughly half, depending on your brackets).
Something else you need to understand about how capital gains are calculated. First, long-term gains cancel out long-term losses, and short-term gains cancel out short-term losses. Only after this can short-term and long-term capital gains/losses cancel out each other.
Some scenarios that help drive home the implications of the above:
- You trade Section 1256 contracts this year and are profitable. This saves you approximately 7-10% on taxes levied on your trading activity by trading contracts like SPX instead of contracts like SPY.
- You hold profitable Section 1256 contracts as long-term investments through the end-of-year. You are hit with 60/40 taxes on the "gains" of these contracts for tax year 2020 (even though you haven't sold them). You sell the contract a year after you bought it at a further gain in 2021, and pay the 60/40 split on your 2021 taxes for any additional gains since the 2020 end-of-year tax payment. You would have been better off with a traditional contract that A) would have deferred your full tax payment to 2021, and B) would be taxed at the more favorable 100% long-term capital gains instead of 60/40 split.
- You hold unprofitable Section 1256 contracts as long-term investments through the end-of-year. You get a 60/40 tax writeoff on the "losses" of these contracts for tax year 2020 (even though you haven't sold them). You sell the contract a year after you bought it at a loss in 2021, and get a 60/40 writeoff on your 2021 taxes on any additional losses since the 2020 end-of-year tax deduction. You have done yourself a favor in this case because A) you reduced your taxes in 2020 instead of deferring losses to 2021, and B) you have more useful short-term losses to offset other higher-taxed short-term gains, rather than 100% long-term losses for traditional contracts held for over 1 year. (If you're wondering why you can't take advantage of (A) for traditional contracts, lookup the Wash Sale rule.)
- You trade traditional contracts this year and are unprofitable. Your losses are 100% short-term capital losses, which is more helpful in offsetting other higher-taxed short-term capital gains you have from other trading activities (e.g. those sweet TSLA puts).
- You acquire SPY shares which you plan to hold for more than 2 years. You collect dividends and avoid paying taxes on capital gains, potentially indefinitely (i.e. if you never sell). Whereas with options, the farthest-dated LEAPs are 2 years out, after which time you would have to realize a capital gain or loss. You can sell covered calls for additional income, but may want to wait 1 year before doing so to avoid your shares being called away during that period and paying short-term capital gains. It's complicated.
- For profitable short-term trading activities (0-1 yrs), trade Section 1256 contracts
- For unprofitable short-term trading activities (0-1 yrs), trade traditional options contracts
- For profitable long-term trading activities (1-2 yrs), trade traditional options contracts
- For unprofitable long-term trading activities (1+ yrs), trade Section 1256 contracts
- For profitable long-term bets with > 2 year holding period, hold SPY shares. Sell covered calls after 1 year holding period for additional income if desired.
Since 1 SPY = 1/10 SPX, we expect bid/ask spreads for SPX options to be 10x as big as SPY. Anecdotally in the last couple weeks, I saw larger spreads than expected in SPX options, especially when IV got pumped up. This is the primary drawback I have seen so far trading SPX options.
/ES futures are very solid in daytime trading hours. I haven't traded /ES options and SPXU or SPXU options, so I'm not entirely sure how they compare.
Contract Expirations Traded
Keep in mind that different contract expirations will have different liquidity. In general, I have seen the highest liquidity for monthly contracts. Near-dated weeklies can be alright, but I usually see the largest volume on the monthlies.
I would avoid the quarterlies on SPX, as they seem to have the lowest volume. LEAPs are somewhere in between, and obviously is your only choice for long-term speculation besides owning SPY shares outright.
Exchanges and Hours Traded
Different contracts trade on different exchanges, and each exchange can have its own rules about hours of operation, comissions, etc.
For this reason it's possible that the same
contract could trade at different
hours depending which exchange your contract is traded on.
For example, CBOE allows for options trading on its exchanges for another 15 minutes after markets close, but this is not true for all exchanges. Furthermore, the same exchange
can have different trading hours
for different contracts
It gets even more crazy when you look at holidays and other special events, as different exchanges have different rules about when they shutdown depending on the day-of-week that different holidays fall on.
Depending on your broker, you may be able to select the desired exchange explicitly, or your broker may offer a "smart order router" which tries to intelligently route your order to the exchange with the best fill price.
Commissions vary widely depending on the exchange your order is routed to, in addition to your broker's fees. There are a lot of gotchas here. For example, some brokers (e.g. IBKR) levy heavy fees for trading /CL compared with other futures.
More generally, the total commissions you pay will depend on the type of contract, and will be inversely correlated to the leverage ratio. In other words, it's cheaper to trade one /ES options contract than it is to trade the equivalent 250 SPY options contracts. However, being mindful of your risk tolerance is the more important consideration here.
Reasons to trade leveraged inverse ETFs?
I haven't traded the inverse ETFs, so I don't know as much about them. However my understanding is that it could be advantageous to trade SPXU rather than buying premium-rich puts in a high-IV environment, or if you want to avoid the possibility of IV crush. There are also other ways to hedge IV (e.g. put spreads, options contracts placed on the VIX, etc). However, they have their own set of gotchas
We'll make the assumption that you're profitable, and that your primary motivation is choosing the most tax-advantaged strategy which matches your investment horizons. In this case:
- Use SPX options, /ES, and /ES options for short-term trades (trades closed in less than 1 year).
- Be careful if you hold any of these contracts through the end of the calendar year (you'll owe taxes on any gains because they are "marked to market").
- Consider SPXU and/or spreads or VIX IV hedging if IV is too high to buy straight puts.
- Use SPY LEAP options for trades that will last 1-2 years.
- Either roll-out at expiration for another 1-2 years, or exercise to hold SPY shares (see #3 below).
- In current high IV environment, cash-secured puts and put credit spreads work well for long-term bullishness.
- Hold SPY shares if you plan to keep them for over 2 years.
- SPY shares can be initially acquired with long-dated leaps above, or via a short-dated cash-secured put if you want to own spy shares sooner.
- Optionally begin selling covered calls for additional income after holding shares for 1 year.
TL;DR of TL;DR
Trade Index Options like SPX and futures instead of SPY to save on taxes and stick it to the IRS. Don't give mnuchin any more of your tendies, make him get them from big daddy powell instead. Money printer go brrr already and doesn't need your help, so don't give it.
This is the first iteration of a new Newbie Guide to Investing in CSGO, covering most basic issues. Some subjects are in the work and will be added at a later date.
Before we start, THIS
is a fantastic overview of CSGO Market History (until April 2019) and a must-have, including timeframes for regular and operation drops, many important events and lots of useful info, made by steamfrag
Which items can be invested in?
Discontinued consumables (cases, stickers and basically all containers) are better items for long term investment than non-consumables, since consumables get deleted from the market when used, thus reducing their quantity over time, unlike skins which are only deleted if a user gets banned or if the skins are used in trade-up contracts. Specific skins/knives/gloves could be profitable to invest and to hold long term, if you know exactly what you are doing. But generally skins are better suited for frequent trading and not long term investing, or if you want skins to play with and more or less hold their value with some potential to go up in price. As an example, Here
is a video from TDM HeyJesus from last year explaining what I mean. If you are more interested in trading with others, nice knives and gloves, etc. and not mid/long term investing, visit /GlobalOffensiveTrade
- Discontinued Cases: You could buy 3 cent cases (or less, depending on your currency from steam market, or 1 to 2 cents from cashout sites) when they get discontinued from the active drop pool and are moved to rare drops. This usually happens when a new case is released, the oldest case from active drop pool moves to rare drops. Active drop pool usually consists of 5 cases. Be aware that cases with high volume on market will take a very long time to rise in price. You could also invest in cases at a later time, for instance after few years of being 3 cents, lower quantities on market and upwards price trend, you could jump in or even at an earlier stage when they are still as active drop but anticipated to be the next case to move to rare drops, if you're in it for the very long haul, and if you can get the cases for extremely cheap prices in bulk (1 cent or less). Some cases are much older and/or rarer than others and therefore cost more, for example Operation Bravo case. Sometimes unexpected things happen with cases, for instance Valve decided to make the Hydra Case a rare drop as soon as Operation Hydra ended, even though most people were expecting the Hydra Case to become a common drop after end of the operation and to become 3 cents for a long time. Instead, they went up in price very quickly and very high. So if you invested in hydra cases during the end of operation for 10 cents, you could have made a lot of money by now. But note that the more cases are released, the more options case openers have to chose from. Therefore the rise in price of cases might slow down during time and take longer, as more and more cases are released. This can only be countered by increasing number of players and case openers (natural demand). Last but not least, the popularity and prices of the skins in the cases will influence the price development of discontinued cases (and vice versa).
- UPDATE: Lately Valve has done some weird things like dropping a large number of older cases such as Shadow cases, Chroma 2 cases, etc. for non prime accounts. So the old system isn't that reliable anymore
List of all CSGO Cases in Chronological Order:
|Case Name ||Release Date ||Rare or Active Drop |
|CSGO Weapon Case ||14. August 2013 ||Confirmed Rare |
|eSports 2013 Case ||14. August 2013 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Operation Bravo Case ||19. September 2013 ||Confirmed Rare |
|CSGO Weapon Case 2 ||08. November 2013 ||Confirmed Rare |
|eSports 2013 Winter Case ||18. December 2013 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Winter Offensive Weapon Case ||18. December 2013 ||Confirmed Rare |
|CSGO Weapon Case 3 ||12. February 2014 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Operation Phoenix Weapon Case ||20. February 2014 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Huntsman Weapon Case ||01. May 2014 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Operation Breakout Weapon Case ||01. July 2014 ||Confirmed Rare |
|eSports 2014 Summer Case ||10. July 2014 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Operation Vanguard Weapon Case ||11. November 2014 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Chroma Case ||08. January 2015 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Chroma 2 Case ||15. April 2015 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Falchion Case ||26. May 2015 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Shadow Case ||17. September 2015 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Revolver Case ||08. December 2015 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Operation Wildfire Case ||17. February 2016 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Chroma 3 Case ||20. April 2016 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Gamma Case ||15. June 2016 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Gamma 2 Case ||18. August 2016 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Glove Case ||28. November 2016 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Spectrum Case ||15. March 2017 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Operation Hydra Case ||23. May 2017 ||Confirmed Rare |
|Spectrum 2 Case ||14. September 2017 ||Active |
|Clutch Case ||15. February 2018 ||Active |
|Horizon Case ||02. August 2018 ||Possibly Rare (needs more data) |
|Danger Zone Case ||06. December 2018 ||Active |
|Prisma Case ||13. March 2019 ||Active |
|CS20 Case ||18. October 2019 ||Active |
|Shattered Web Case ||19. November 2019 ||Active |
- CSGO Major Stickers and Sticker Capsules: Usually at the end of each Tournament, Valve offers a sticker sale (between 50% and 75% off normal price) in-game store. You could buy stickers and capsules during that sale and either sell shortly after the sale ends, for a small quick profit (not guarantied but happened almost every time till now), or wait longer (usually over a year) for a possibly much larger profit. For instance if you bought Atlanta Legend Capsules 2 years ago, you would have 20x your money as of today! As more tournaments are being held and more stickers are released, it is difficult for most stickers to distinguish themselves among the huge mass of other stickers. Only invest and hold on to stickers that you think are promising. The profit from stickers depends on how nice they look, how popular they are, how well the teams perform in the future and how many people invested in them (basically a combination of all these factors). Sometimes teams disband, players quit or become successful, teams/players get banned, etc. which sometimes drive up the price of the related stickers.
- Operation Pass: Sold by Valve in-game in order to get access to an operation. After the operation, all it does is give you access to a coin which you can display (which some players like to collect). You can buy passes during operation (or possibly during a sale of the pass at the end of the operation) then hold on to them and sell at a later date. There were few exceptional circumstances such as Vanguard pass which sold well as it didn't reach as low a discount as people were expecting and wasn't on sale for a long time, so not many were bought. Furthermore, Valve stopped selling the Vanguard Pass before the operation ended, which caused players who wanted to complete the missions to buy it from the market. Similar things happened to the Wildfire Pass. The Wildfire pass didn't even go on sale which caused its price to tripple in a single day when it got removed, then rose in price even more during time.
- Viewer Pass: Introduced with the Katowice 2019 Major, a Viewer Pass was a purchasable in-game item which gave purchasers exclusive access to an upgradeable Event Coin, Souvenir Packages, The Major Pick'Em Challenge and Unlimited team graffiti for the duration of the Major. Similar to Operation Pass, all it does now is to give you a collectible coin. The Katowice 2019 Viewer Pass went on sale for 50% for few days during the last days of the major (before the sticker sale!). Some people bought them at 50% off but some people were expecting it to become even cheaper during the sticker sale (75% off), which didn't happen, instead it got removed, thus causing those investors to panic buy. I expect that Valve will use the Viewer Pass System in the next majors too (speculative opinion), as it was probably a big financial success and a lot of passes were sold in addition to a lot of major stickers.
- Souvenir Packages: Drops in matches during majors. Research the different packages and their skins. Cobblestone is the most desirable due to the very desired and expensive Souvenir Dragon Lore. Also Cobblestone was removed from the map pool and replaced by Dust 2 in April 2018 and was not available in London 2018 and Katowice 2019 majors, thus increasing its price even more. Recently Vertigo replaced Cobblestone in March 2019. During the tournaments, the supply of souvenir packages will obviously be the highest, but also the interest in them is the highest. Try to buy them as cheap as possible and simply wait. Generating profit with souvenir packages might be a very slow process depending on the souvenir packages you have and the volume which was dropped in the majors. Note: as of Katowice 2019 major, only Viewer Pass owners were eligable to receive Souvenir Packages and Souvenir Packages no longer dropped during matches, but Pass owners could chose a match of their choice and get the Souvenir Package for it. This caused an equilibrium in prices, since most people chose the popular new 2018 Nuke and Inferno packages and the Overpass Package, causing their quantities to be much higher than other less popular packages in the major.
- Sticker Capsules 1 and 2 and Community Sticker Capsule: These capsules were common drop for a long time, opened with sticker capsule keys and pretty much worthless (just like cheap cases), then they got discontinued and rose to high prices reaching a peak in May 2016. Probably with a June 2016 patch, they became rare drops which increased their quantity and crashed their prices (combined with the inevitable crash after the crown foil hype). However, after an initial crash they slowly rose in price again and sticker capsule 2 is at its all time high right now (as of May 2019). I assume its also just a hype correlated to the now second Crown Foil sticker hype which could crash back again. At these price levels, invest very cautiously. Also look at specific stickers in these capsules, such as Flammable foil, headhunter, crown foil, etc. At the right prices, these might be interesting items.
- Gift Packages: Around christmas time Valve sold gift packages for $1. If you open a gift package on a server, it awards a random player a random regular skin drop. In the past players who opened the most packages were displayed on a leader-board in the beginning of every game of every Valve NA CSGO server. This has been exploited for advertising. In 2013, people didn't anticipate that the Gift Packages are limited to the Winter months and in the following year, CSGO exploded in popularity. This multiplied the price of these packages until they were sold again in 2014. In 2014, many people expected the same thing to happen, so the supply of Gift Packages increased. CSGO exploded again, but this time the price of gift packages increased much more because gambling sites started to boom and they competed for advertising. Fast forwards, Valve eventually removed the leaderboard feature a long time ago. For a long time gift packages were even below the in-game price. Recently though (since around end of 2018) the supply seams to dry up slowly and the price is climbing again (this time probably due to natural demand from people who actually just want to gift). We can see a similar trend with pallet of presents (which gives up to nine people in the user's match a random item). There is also the Audience Participation Parcel which drops up to 25 gifts randomly to viewers, but this item hasn't done anything interesting price wise yet.
- Skins from Cases: Unlikely to be more profitable than consumables and it is more risky, unless you really know what you're doing. Sometimes Valve changes the design or details of a skin, which could also affect the prices. Also nerfs and buffs for a specific weapon tend to change the prices of skins for that gun (depending on how severe the buff/nerf is), for instance the AUG skins experienced a rise in price after Valve lowered the price (in game!) to $3.150 in Oct. 2018 and pro players used the AUG in the major. Skins which are used as trade up fodder tend to go up in price, whenever a new case or collection is released. There are a lot of other factors which determine the price development of skins which can't be all covered here
- Skins from Collections Exclusive to Operations: skins which only drop during operations tend to rise when the operations end. However, the more operations they have been through, the higher the total supply on market and thus the longer it usually takes for them to go up in price during the breaks between operations. The following collections were dropped during the last 3 Operations (Bloodhound, Wildfire and Hydra). Operation Hydra was the last operation we had and it did end on November 13, 2017, which is more than a year ago! Note that these skins only dropped for those who owned the operation pass for the operation. Those who didn't own the pass, got their drops from the regular active collections.
- The Cache Collection
- The Chop Shop Collection
- The Cobblestone Collection
- The Gods and Monsters Collection
- The Overpass Collection
- The Rising Sun Collection
- The Danger Zone Collection: the Danger Zone Collection was basically just one skin, the MP5 Lab Rats. Players could get the skin by reaching Prime Status after CSGO went F2P in December 2018. The skin was available for a few weeks. A lot of the CSGO playerbase got the skin, which makes it a questionable investment since there are probably a LOT out there and the gun/skin isn't that popular. Could be a long term investment nonetheless, if you start to see quantities lowering over time and some stable price action.
- Skins from Inactive or Retired Collections: The following collections are either inactive for now or completely retired. But some of them could be reintroduced in the future.
- The Assault Collection
- The Aztec Collection
- The Baggage Collection
- The Dust Collection
- The Inferno Collection (The Old One)
- The Militia Collection
- The Mirage Collection
- The Nuke Collection (The Old One)
- The Office Collection
- The Vertigo Collection
- Skins from Active Collections: The following collections are current active collections which drop skins in-game. Usually It is not recommanded to invest in any active collections (though some old skins which are suitable as fodder for certain trade-ups see occasional spikes whenever new cases and collections are released). Also the new Nuke and Inferno Collections are popular and people use skins from them to trade-up to better skins of these collections.
- The 2018 Inferno Collection
- The 2018 Nuke Collection
- The Bank Collection
- The Dust 2 Collection
- The Italy Collection
- The Lake Collection
- The Safehouse Collection
- The Train Collection
- Knives: If you know what you're doing and are familiar with patterns, etc. you can make some profit. But as mentioned knives are better suited for frequent trading and simply as play skins, even though some knives like the Butterfly Knife experienced significant price rise in the past, it is usually not a good idea to use knives as investment items. For instance the same amount of money you paid for a knife 3 years ago spent in specific stickers, would have generated much more profit in the same timeframe.
- Graffitis: Since Valve offered free graffiti for the duration of the major (since Katowice 2019 major and now in Berlin 2019 major), but none for sale, it is an option to invest in all previous major graffitis. The quantities for some old team graffitis could go down significantly and thus increase the price (which it has already done).
- CSGO Keys: CSGO keys have a fixed price in game of $2.50 and are used as currency amoung traders, and of course to open cases. Investing in keys is pointless, unless you want to park your money, or trade or cashout, or unless you can buy keys at a cheaper rate than one normally could (currency issues). There is a special situation going on with the Hydra key which crashed significantly in price after the Operation Hydra Case became a rare drop and became an expensive case. There are different opinions as how the Hydra Key price will develop in the future. Some say it will crash even more, some say it will more or less stablize at the current price levels (1 Euro), others even invest in it right now and say the price will go up again, as soon as the old supply is dried out. For this guide, I remain neutral and leave it up to you to make up your own mind about this specific key. Note: currently this key is not accepted by most traders. There are other keys tied to expensive cases such as Winter Offensive keys which are also not accepted by many traders, though they are low in supply and thus still hold a stable price on market.
- IMPORTANT KEY UPDATE: Valve made newly bought keys in shop non marketable and non tradable as of Nov. 2019. Older existing keys are not affected and can still be traded and listed on steam market. Read more here https://blog.counter-strike.net/index.php/2019/10/26113/
Note: Some skins were banned from a case, but can be traded up to with trade-up contracts
- M4A4 Howl (removed due to copyright violation) - The only Contraband item in CSGO
- Dual Berettas Retribution (removed due to artist ban)
- P90 Desert Warfare (removed due to artist ban)
- CZ75-Auto Poison Dart (removed due to artist ban)
- MAC-10 Curse (removed due to artist ban)
- USP-S Orion (removed due to artist ban)
- Sticker Howling Dawn (removed due to copyright violation)
- Sticker King on the Field (removed due to artist ban)
- Sticker Winged Defuser (removed due to artist ban)
- Sticker Harp of War (Holo) (removed due to artist ban)
- Removed and Reintroduced Stickers: there were a lot of other old stickers which were offered in the in-game shop of Valve and which were discontinued in the past and went up in price really high, but were reintroduced in 2016 to the in-game shop and remained there till today as random coupon offers, which caused their price crash back to around 1 Euro for normal stickers (more for the holos/foils). These sticker were the community series stickers (1,2,3,4 and 5) and the Halloween 2014 series. It is an option to buy these stickers in-game whenever you get a coupon offer and hope that some day they will be removed again, but this is a gamble. Also since these were available for a fixed price for so long in the shop, some investors might have had the same idea and stocked up on them. And the quantities might be too high for significant gains in the future. Also most of them aren't that popular anymore.
- Current in-game Coupon Offers: each player has a coupon offer section with 4 slots with some items (sticker capsules, music kits, pin capsules, single stickers) offered. You could buy these items in-game and hold with the idea that at some point some of these items might get removed, but this is a gamble and impossible to predict and pretty much dead money until something happens. Note that whenever you buy an item from this section, the slot which you bought the item gets automatically refilled with another offer. This was not always the case. In the past after you bought all your 4 offers, you had to wait for new offers. But Valve always comes up with new ideas to make bank.
- StatTrak™ Swap Tool: these tools are sold as a 2-pack in-game for a fixed price. People bought this, used one and sold the other one on the market. For the longest time these tools were around 10 cents on steam market which is quite a big difference to what they logically should be (half the price you pay in game). Recently they have gone up in price and reached that level. So right now, its pointless to do anything with them. If they ever go back down to those previous lows, you might want to consider them if you can get them very cheap. But keep in mind that there is max. cap of what they can rise up to obviously, and that there are better investment options out there
Other ways to profit on the market than long/mid term investing
- Flipping Items in Coupon Section from in-game Store: You could buy stickers, sticker capsules, pins capsules and music kits when you get a coupon offer in-game. Check the price on steam market and if the price you pay in-game + steam tax is still lower than the lowest steam market price, then simply buy in-game and instantly sell on steam market for few cents quick profit. Mostly there is no or just a few cents to be made, but sometimes some offers give you better instant profit. Note: with the introduction of the EZ4ENCE music kits, Valve added a "new releases" category, which enabled users to buy as many of these music kits as they wanted as long as these were sold in this category. This means that potential investors could have stocked up on these items.
- Trade-up Contracts: Determine if a certain skin can be traded up to profitably (consider Steam tax). If so, buy the lower level skins (either through buy orders at steam market, external cashout sites, or trading sites), and sell the traded-up skin on the market until it becomes unprofitable. This is already being done by bots and many other users. Note that the float value of the traded-up-to weapon is a function of the average float value of the traded-up-from skins. For more information and good trade-up contracts, visit the youtube channel of TDM Heyzeus. But remember that whenever a video is posted, a lot of people copy and paste the trade-ups shown in the videos making them unprofitable instantly, so it might be wise to revisit older trade-ups or come up with your own trade-up ideas. Use the trade-up calculator of csgo exchange to double check. Remember to switch the formula to calculate odds to new theory "based on outcome" (the old theory was incorrect).
- Wide Daily Seasonality: Some items peak every day at around noon and tank after midnight (EST). If the difference tends to offset the Steam tax (15%), it can be taken advantage of. Usually, this requires a large volume to be reasonably profitable. If you engage in this technique, keep in mind that there is a scalability limit for the profitability.
- Expansion and Contraction: After a popular game/operation/case/tournament/Steam-sale/market-bug is introduced, players try to dump their items on the market to buy whatever is hot. At the same time, buyers tend to also go for what's hot. Old investment supplies increase, and demand lessens. It is usually wise to do the opposite of the general market behavior and buy on these market crashes. When you want to sell something, it's usually best to wait until the market has fully recovered. Further, during some crashes, it might be better to wait until the end to buy-in as many investors try to buy in early.
- Tournament Sticker Capsule Opening Arbitrage: During a period of time of some Major sticker sales, it was profitable to buy capsules from the market, open them, and then resell the stickers on the market (in the average case). Examine the EV carefully.
- Wide Bid/Ask Spreads: take advantage if the daily bid/ask spread is larger than the Valve tax. Buy commodities that are being demanded at a much lower price than they are being listed at, then sell them back. Don't do this en masse before an expected downturn.
- Grinding Weekly Drops: When a new case is released it can be worthwhile to accumulate in-game time in order to get the new highly-priced case.
- Hunting for sub-variations of items: Some items on various markets have specific sub-patterns/properties that are more valuable than the usual ones (ex., 5-7 Case Hardened blue pattern and other desired knive patterns, specific signature Souvenir Packages, skins with expensive stickers, etc.) and they are sometimes undervalued (especially during market downturns).
- Currency Arbitrage: If a particular conversion is highly skewed and Valve's adjustment is slow, it can become profitable for users in a certain country to buy items in the store or Community Market and resell them off the community market to another country. Note that using VPN to fake your place of residency is against Valve TOS and bannable
- Listing High, Hoping for a Market Bug: List items for a higher price than their market value and hope that a Steam bug will occur where sellers temporarily won't be able to create new listings, while buyers can still buy the items, or hope that someone decides to buy heavily in one of your items and buys a lot at once
How many items can I hold in my inventory?
Officially, 1000. You can list excess items on the steam market (for high unrealistic prices) and basically use the steam market as extra space. Note that the price of your listed items on market + your steam wallet cannot exceed $2000 at any given time. You can increase the number of items in your inventory and the amount of steam wallet money through some tricks. It is however recommanded that instead you simply make extra accounts and prepare them for usage as extra space and as storage accounts, if you need more space.
How much is the Tax/Fee on Steam Community Market?
Approx. 13%-15% total for most. Here
is one in Euro by donbernie
is one for items under $1 by HwanZike
Yes, if you want to make Gaben really happy, sell for 3 cents and give him 2
What are some real-money marketplaces for CSGO items? Use all external sites at your own risk
I've personally used skinbaron and skinbay and had no problems so far. There are others out there like cs deals. Update (Oct 2019): I used Bitskins before they changed ownership in Oct. 2019. I am waiting to see who the new owners are (still unknown) and how the site develops, before using them again.
Also note that the most popular one, OPSkins was BANNED
by Valve in 2018. Do not use OPSkins if you want to cash out from or cash in to Steam anymore. Their so called VGO Skins aren't actual CSGO skins, even though they look similar. Update (Oct. 2019): OPSkins apparently made a comeback with a P2P system without using Bots. Proceed with caution, because Valve basically sent them a cease and desist letter in the past letting them know that they aren't allowed to be associated with CSGO and use any intellectual property of Valve on their websites at all anymore.
What is the most efficient way to cash out?
Sell the items directly at Bitskins, Skinbaron or another trustworthy site. Depending on the items, this can take a while. As an alternative you can exchange your investments into liquid items (popular skins for frequently used weapons, certain knives, case keys, sticker keys, nametags etc. - spend some time to determine which item gives you the best rate) and sell those liquid items on external cashout sites. The latter method will increase the speed at which you get money but will lose you a larger percentage. Keep in mind that BitSkins/Skinbaron take a percentage (5% to 15%), Paypal takes a percentage (~2%), and that the item values on external sites (real money value) are always lower than in the Steam Community Market. Also, every transaction on the Steam Community Market takes away 15% already. Occasionally the items on external sites are so cheap compared to SCM that it becomes worth it to sell them on SCM instead, buy keys from the in-game store, and then sell those keys on external sites again. When selling on SCM it almost always is correct to sell with an order that's higher than the highest buy order and higher than the lowest sell order if the lowest sell order is lower than recent trends display.
What is the most efficient way to buy in?
Buy items (not necessarily CSGO only) from trustworthy external cashout sites or from highly reputable sellers with high cash rep if they offer a better deal (you can find some on /GlobalOffensiveTrade
) and sell the items on the Steam Community Market. Spend some time to determine which item gives you the best discount compared to Steam Market Price. Be aware that some items such as souvenir skins, certain Stattrak knives, etc. might have a very high discount, but are very very hard to resell back on steam market, avoid these items and stick to popular items. There is a reason why they have such a high discount. Also be aware that some items might be manipulated on steam market, thus showing a very high discount on 3rd party sites when compared, avoid these items and check their market history to be sure. http://csgo.steamanalyst.com/hotdeals
is one of the tools that can help you with good deals, or the deals section at BitSkins. The general rule is also the cheaper the items, the higher the possible discount. For instance you could buy very cheap stickers for sometimes 50% off, and resell on steam market. But the downside is that it takes a lot of time and effort than a single expensive item, but gives you more steam wallet money at the end. Make sure that after steam tax, you always get more money than if you deposit the money directly to Steam, otherwise this whole process becomes completely pointless.
What are the case opening odds?
| ||Normal ||StatTrak |
|Knives and Gloves ||0.26% ||0.026% |
|Covert ||0.64% ||0.064% |
|Classified ||3.20% ||0.32% |
|Restricted ||15.98% ||1.598% |
|Mil-Spec ||79.92% ||7.992% |
Why did item X increase/decrease in price?
Possible reasons: CS:GO updates/balance changes/game changes/market changes (e.g., Tradeup Contract), new cases/operations (both short-term, due to opening frenzies, and long-term, due to increased supplies of skins), a famous streameyoutuber hypes an item, someone tries to manipulate the market, a AAA game is released, a tournament is taking place (CS:GO, DOta 2 etc.), a Steam-sale like Summer sale is going on, a market-bug is ongoing, the ingame drop rate was increased/decreased, legal issues about things related to the CSGO market (e.g., betting/gambling), etc.
If I create a new Steam account, how do I transfer items to that account? How long does this take?
Create a new account, log in (via the thick client), set up your profile, enable Steam Guard, wait 15 days, and transfer the items to the account from your main (double check that it is your account). If you intend to use the thin client (e.g., via Chrome), make sure that you log in from there as well because Steam will impose a 7 day trade restriction on your account when you attempt to create a new transaction from a new device (a device meaning a new browser). Also, if you do not have mobile authentication enabled on the alt account, there will be a 3 day delay for trades. You can use the same phone number & email address for many Steam accounts. Also, Gmail forwards emails addressed to your account even if dots (.) are added in between the username characters of your email address.
If I create a new Steam account, how do I use the Community Market? How long does this take?
Same steps as above, but you need to purchase a game that costs at least $5 or deposit $5 into your Steam wallet (and wait a month) before being able to use the Community Market. Keep in mind that using a new payment method will trigger a weeklong community market cooldown on your account.
After buying a CSGO item from the Steam Community Market, how long do I have to wait until I can sell/trade it?
They are sellable immediately on the Market. You need to wait 7 days until you can trade them to another account. Note that items from some other games, have the 7 days cool down both for trading AND steam market (like Rust).
How do buy orders work?
When you place a buy order, the market first looks for all the cheapest items that can fulfill your order. Then the oldest listing (i.e. the seller who has waited the longest) is selected and purchased. If the items are listed in multiple currencies, the amounts are first converted into your currency before being selected (i.e. a 0.03 RUB listing has no priority over a 0.03 USD listing). If multiple buy orders satisfy a new market listing, the oldest matching buy order will be selected. It used to be different in the past, but was changed in 2017.
How do I create multiple listings at once on Steam Market?
You could use one the addons listed in the "useful sites and tools" section of this guide down below. The current most secure way (since no external extensions are used) is a solution suggested by u/soldture
. Simply copy this link: https://steamcommunity.com/market/multisell?appid=730&contextid=2&items=Falchion%20Case
to your desired item name. This solution only works with commodity items. This also works with other games (you have to change the appid and replace it with the appid of that game, for instance Rust is 440.
Item X hyped and is going to moon. Should I Buy?
Usually parabolic moves are followed by a crash (not always but most of the time). It is almost never a good idea to buy when something is mooning because of a video, some news, manipulation, mass hysteria and hype or whatever else. Buy the rumour, sell the news.
Item X is crashing hard. The Market is crashing. I am shaking and panicking. Should I Sell?
Stay calm, take a deep breath and find out what is really going on and what you really think about it. As an example: there was a huge panic when gambling sites were being banned. Many people panicked and sold their items for ridiculously low prices. People were telling eachother that the skin market will crash and never recover if there is no gambling and the world is going to end. And here we are in 2019, and almost everything (including skins) is at its all time high. However, sometimes you just need to sell fast. Let's say you have a skin from a collection which was inactive for a long time, making the prices of the skins go very high, and then suddenly the collection became active again for whatever reason. Or Gaben officially tells us that he is going to do something crazy with the market which will inevitably crash everything. In that case yes, sell fast (just an example)
Useful sites and tools Use all external sites, tools and addons at your own risk, some are risky to use, some old and not updated
- Steam Inventory Helper - mass listing, WARNING READ THIS before deciding to use or not
- Steam Wizard - mass listing (some other functions don't work anymore or are outdated)
- CSGOFloat Market Checker - float value, paint seed, and screenshots of CS:GO items
- Better Buy Orders - see all the buy orders of an item in the Steam Community Market
- Steam Enhancer
Useful Youtube Channels
: FAQ 2.0 (huge shoutout, copied a lot of stuff from this FAQ, sometimes word by word) Steamfrag
: Very useful graphs and market data
Disclaimer: The information offered here is not financial advice. We, the mod team, are just a bunch of gamers and hobby investors. Do your own due dilligence before investing any real money in to a game and do it at your own risk! Use all external links, sites, tools, addons, etc. at your own risk! Any information in this thread may be outdated at any given time. You should be mentally prepared to lose everything invested in virtual items. Valve could change the rules affecting the market anytime. Third party cashout and trading sites and their BOTS could be banned anytime. External events such as successful lawsuits against Valve, new state laws, new country laws, etc. could also affect the market anytime by forcing Valve to take measures (for instance case opening is now restricted in Belgium and Netherlands, OPSkins got banned, Gambling sites were banned, etc.). Also note that all of your items legally belong to Valve, even if you paid for them.
Suggestions and potential corrections to this guide are always welcomed and will be added if necessary and approved by the mod team. I will try to keep this guide updated.
Last updated: Nov. 2019
I have found a very interesting thread in a forum, I decided to copy and paste all the comments that the author of the post made. The author posted this in 2018, the author also posted another in 2019 about the same subject. But this will be about the 2018 post (part 1)
Here is the link for part 2: https://www.reddit.com/The2020s/comments/exoexp/copied_and_pasted_a_long_thread_about_the_2020s/
As I write this thread it is the year 2018, which is only two years away from the 2020s. It wasn't long ago when I felt that the coming decade felt like a distant future, but now it is very near.
I want to try and predict what could happen in the 2020s, I have based my predictions on considering the age of all the generations that will be alive then and deciding their most likely role. The generations I will include in the overview are as follows: Generation Z,
people born from 2002 to current present. Generation Y,
people born from 1981 to 2001. Generation X,
people born from 1965 to 1980. Baby boomers,
people born from 1946 to 1964.
First of all the decade will start off strong with a presidential election, the eldest of Gen Z will be old enough to vote while the majority of voters will be Gen Y and X. The voting trend for authoritarian and socialist candidates will peak during this decade, more people will care about the environment and will be more willing to do something about it.
And yes, Donald Trump could win the next election.
More people will be willing to sacrifice some of their personal freedoms to work for a shared cause, I don't exactly know what that will be but I can guess it would have something to do with climate change or globalism.
Baby boomer power will lose its grip in this decade with Donald Trump being one of the last, Gen X will take their place with Gen Y being the driving force of the implemented changes. I can see Gen Y as becoming a group divided into different hive-minded tribelike groups, each group working hard together to make their ideologies a reality and to make changes.
The internal strife that we are seeing today will continue to worsen in the 2020s, with increasing conflict, upheaval and revolution being the defining themes of the early to mid 2020s.
Internal strife will eventually end by 2030, this could mark the end of Americans position as the worlds superpower with the spotlight to be replaced by a more authoritarian power. In such a scenario our values and lifestyles will change.
After the revolution the world will see an explosion of new technologies, the new technologies will give people hope about our future and will improve our life's but will also be a cause of new dangers and threats that we don't have today.
The new generation after Gen Z will be the first people born into the new world order.
I know this thread was slightly vague but I hope I have put in enough information to let the reader know of what I think could happen in the 2020s.
But what do you think would happen? Do you agree with any of those predictions? Would you like to add anything? If you want to share your thoughts I'd love to read them :-D
A decline in living standards for the many is definitely something I can see happening, and it will be a big reason why people will fight more and more for change in the coming years.
People will fight for a stronger community that better provides for its citizens, but things will continue to get worse before their protests are answered accordingly.
It is indeed a shame that people are still apathetic about the current situation, Jeremy Corbyn tried to help but all he got in return was mistreatment and its almost as if they are getting what's coming to them.
With the way the UK is headed I cannot say for sure what will happen, but my gut says that people will coerce the government into leaving the EU, I could be wrong. Do you think the UK will leave or remain in the EU?
---------- 'In short, what you both have described is pretty much the last 50 years, so it will probably continue as it is now.'
Its cool you pointed that out because I based the 2020s predictions from the late 1940s.
America 10 years ago was when its stock market crashed which resulted in the 2008 financial crisis, if the UK is 10 years behind we can assume that the UK is headed for an equally severe economic crisis if it hasn't happened already. 'to clarify, declining from now, or from the peak of 'living standards', if so, what year was that do you think?'
I meant declining from now, I'd largely blame climate change for the upcoming decline in living standards but for the sake of the thread I will blame economic and social dynamics as they are contributing factors too.
Thank you for your input :) And indeed 2010s saw the biggest political shift since the mid-1900s and politics will continue to change for a few more years to come (until 2030 max.), some people feel threatened by this new political climate while some embrace it. 'Putin held a press conference where he gloated and bragged that the US was in extreme decline, no longer the major power and how trump took his advice. We sent some umpty-ump there last week and he, supposedly an aggressive man, allowed Putin to insult American symbols and chuckled along.'
With the way Donald Trump is headed and the fact that he is friends with Russia and North Korea, it is not farfetched to assume that Donald Trump may do to America what Putin or Kim advices him to do, as Donald Trump is willing to sacrifice American liberty for profit and to maintain peace. 'I am encouraged by the younger generations becoming a political force.'
It is unlikely that you will be disappointed by a lack of young voters. It will be the decade where Gen X take over the white house, you could see the first Gen Y candidates and by then Gen Y will already be changing the world. The voice of Gen Z will become more influential too and by the end of the decade many Gen Z's will vote.
We will likely see the first Gen X president after Trump, the president would more likely be less conservative and would more likely deal with things in a sensible way as the president guides America through the next crisis of the mid-to-late 2020s.
Generation Y will most likely be more liberal than Gen X but they will value social and national security more than their parents will. They will likely vote for a liberal or socialist candidate that promises for free healthcare and education.
Generation Z will care the most about the environment, by the end of the 2020s a lot of Gen Z individuals may become green activists.
The 2020s could be summed up as a battle of the generations, with Gen Y and Gen Z growing more tired of reckless consumerism and capitalism, Gen X gladly taking the Baby Boomers place with the remaining Baby Boomers trying to remain in power.
---------- 'more surveillance I bet, secretly going towards George Orwell's vision.'
Very likely! Today we can share everything about ourselves (even our genetic code!), the trend of sharing everything about ourselves will continue to grow in the 2020s and could be the defining feature of the upcoming new world order.
Gen Y in particular are known to share everything about themselves online, in the 2020s Gen Y will make up the majority of the workforce which would mean that you are required to share your private information at the interview. This could expand into every area of our life and it will be increasingly difficult to keep your information private, but Gen Y will probably thrive the most in such an environment as they are more likely to give up their privacy. On a more positive note, there will be a decrease in terrorism and crime.
I worry, and this is a bit far fetched I know, what if we get a dictator in power, and turns Britian into a communist country, and then everything I've written and commented on youtube on the conspiracy theories, blaming the government for corruption, and stuff I've said about Trump's hair and Theresa May's dancing - I'd probably be rounded up and put in a prison camp. But don't think it's gonna get that far.
It likely won't get that far, at least not in America/Britain anyway so you should be fine :)
But it probably wouldn't be wise to troll online in the 2020s, trolling (in particular cyber-bullying) might become a criminal offence and it will be much easier to get into trouble and have your identity tracked by law enforcement.
True, no matter what year it is some things never change, that people in power will always allow human suffering for the pursuit of profit.
(Note: This focuses heavily on Gen Z and may seem out of topic.)
Thinking about Gen Z and what year marks the beginning of their generation is yet to be determined today, and I can't see the range of Gen Y and Gen Z to be fully confirmed until by 2030-2035.
When first posting the thread I marked the beginning of Gen Z at the time when 9/11 occurred (as controversial as that is), sure the event triggered the war in Iraq but it did not trigger a change in political leanings like we see today (2018).
Although 2001 is indeed a possible starting point for Gen Z, the most likely year I think is 2008 when the global financial crisis barged in like a rude awakening.
2008 changed the political climate more than 2001 may have done, the western world and many people got deeper into debt. In 2010 the conservatives took over the British parliament when David Cameron promised to improve the economic situation, in 2016 the Americans wanted a leader who would get them out of debt and to stay relevant which resulted in Donald Trumps victory.
2008 was the end of reckless spending, credit card purchases and economic consistency. But marks the beginning of Gen Z, a generation raised by worried parents wrought with uncertainty, growing up in a world that is becoming more authoritarian and to come of age as cautious and conforming citizens of the future new world order.
In the year 2020 the age range of Gen Z would be 0-12 years, in 2025 0?-17 and 2030 0?-22.
Spite their young age Gen Z will still be a political force to be reckoned with, especially by the late 2020s. Although they will likely be too young to vote, they will join inn the activism and will care much more about the environment than the previous generations.
About half of Gen Z's will grow up in the new world order where censorship and security is compulsory. Gen Z will probably look up to Gen X having an idealized view of the 1980s-1990s, a time of rebels, of manliness, of woman power dressing, of excess, and having the freedom and confidence to express oneself and to say what they really think.
Many new technologies we saw in the 2010s would be commercialised on a larger scale by the 2020s, technologies like virtual reality, 3D printing and robotics with sophisticated AI.
3D printing will become more practical and could become an affordable product for the public by 2030, 3D printing has the potential to revolutionise how a lot of products will be made since the potential of 3D printing is massive.
It is even possible to create synthetic organs using 3D printers, which in itself will revolutionise healthcare.
Virtual reality too will become more practical and affordable for the public, its level of commercial success will affect little of peoples attempt to improve its immersion. In the 2020s virtual reality headsets will likely be downsized into portable wireless glasses/goggles.
Researchers will continue to study robotics and AI. Robots will slowly replace humans in war, humans in factories and humans in data management, this process will not be a fast one and a process which will likely result in unemployment. The rise of Neo-Luddites (which will consist of people who fear technology and people who have lost their jobs to robots) is a real possibility in the 2020s and a movement that may disrupt the robotic movement.
Artificial intelligence will be implemented in the management of data as they are better at mathematics and do not tend to make mistakes, AI may also be implemented in the management of the economy in the hopes of preventing the next stock market crash. The new technologies that we could see in the 2020s are as follows: Vertical farming.
Vertical farms are greenhouses made into skyscrapers, they could revolutionise agriculture for later decades as climate change makes traditional farming more difficult and less productive, it will be a practical solution too as more and more people will be moving into cities.
Vertical farms would likely be self-sustaining as they water their plants with captured rainwater and run on renewable energy.
We will likely see the first vertical farm in the 2020s, and soon after more will appear. Hypersonic flight.
The first hypersonic planes will be in use for the public, especially for the rich. They are the 2020s equivalent of the Concorde from the 1970s, hypersonic airplanes will be much faster and will be able to fly higher in the sky. This technology will expand into hypersonic weaponry, which will be used in missiles and bombs. 5G technology.
5G technology means a faster internet, increased storage capacity, and increased internet connectivity. Gadgets will run much faster and internet delays could even be a thing of the past.
In the 2020s we may see a trend where more and more things will be able to connect to the internet, even mundane items. We could see tables with touchscreens, fridges with touchscreens, doors with touchscreens, we could even see touchscreens on walls. Smart grids.
Smart grids will be used to better manage our use and storage of poweresources, more and more houses will be connected to the smart grid. This will be a gradual process and won't be fully implemented until the 2030s. Advanced drilling.
This technology will likely be used to drill out the remaining sources of oil, gas and coal. It would also reveal more sources of energy that were previously undiscovered, could potentially replace fracking. Gradual technological projects: Cars will slowly switch to electricity.
It is not likely that all cars will be electric by 2030, but we will see a big increase in hybrid vehicles and an increase in electric cars. It will be easier to have an electric car as they become more efficient and power outlets will appear in many petrol stations. Increasing commitment to renewable energy.
More solar energy will be built, more windfarms will be erected, more geothermal plants will be constructed and more hydro-power plants will be installed in our rivers. Breakthroughs in carbon-capture.
In 2015 we have reached a dangerous atmospheric level of carbon dioxide, today some people are working hard to build carbon-capture plants and research a more efficient technology. By the 2020s we could have a more effective way to capture carbon dioxide from the air to store or sell, whether or not we will fully commit to this technology is yet to be seen.
The 2020s will indeed be an interesting age of technological upheaval, I nearly forgot to mention but it will also be an age of space exploration, India will conduct its first space mission and space tourism will be available for the rich.
I do think that the 2018 November election will indeed have a significant affect on how the beginning of the 2020s will play out.
If the Democrats win Donald Trump would be impeached and his ability to rule over America would be dramatically weakened. More aggressive investigations will be made against Donald Trump, going so far as to attempt to overthrow Trump. 'ATM, Joe Biden is the most popular choice to run in 2020. baby boomer, obviously.'
If the Democrats win it will surely make Bidens presidency more likely.
If the Republicans win Donald Trump would likely be in the same situation as before, except for a slight increase of approval for Trump within the office which will give him more power to implement his wishes. With the liberal-democrat movement being on hold.
Either way political division will remain in America as both sides continue to jostle for power, with political violence further increasing. I cannot predict which side will win, especially after the 2016 election where everyone thought that Hillary Clinton will win.
Thank you, but you have contributed much to this thread, so thank you for that also. :-D
Tea party rule would set us back disastrously.
Without a doubt and would actually add to the list of things to protest against for the liberals. If the Tea Party rule came to be I doubt that many people would allow it to run for long, especially if the majority by then have liberal leanings.
This may seem like a longshot but a republican victory could result in California vouching for independence, I do think that we will see at least one state earning independence at some point in the future, even as early as the 2020s.
The mid-term election results will make Donald Trumps re-election much less likely and his impeachment or resignation more so, drama within the white house will intensify more and more while Donald Trump remains in office. Such white house drama and the possibility of Trump impeachment will make the majority of American news.
What does the election results mean for the next election? There will be many more prominent Democratic candidates in 2020 and will have better chances of winning in my mind. The fight for the first woman president in 2016 may pale in comparison in 2020, there will be more women democratic candidates who may have more popularity than Hillary Clinton did. I'd be surprised if we do not see the first woman president by 2030 since many democrats are working hard to achieve their progressive milestone. I'm gonna type in my current prediction of the 2020s, which mainly focuses on the Western world:
The Democratic party may further dominate the white house progressively and will eventually look back at Trumpism as a temporary mistake or hiccup, a mistake that they blame Russia for. Relations between Russia and America could turn sour especially if the Republicans win votes even though the American public actually favour the Democratic candidate, Republicans may blame Russia or declare a war against cyber-hacking since voting numbers are very easy to tamper with.
Cyber-security will be heavily funded as a result, the government will hire skilled hackers to protect their voting numbers and other sensitive data from would-be hackers. Not long after more organizations will increase their cyber-security, hacking will become a more sought after talent and will become a valid way to make a lot of money.
However the internet will become more and more security enforced, in my mind it would not be far-fetched to assume that you will need a licence to use the internet and a record free of illegal hacking. The use of the dark web will explode in use, the government would likely make the dark web illegal to use due to the threat that hackers have on society.
I have mentioned that our society will become more strict and authoritarian and in my mind the Democrats will be the ones who will establish the New World Order. This process may begin in earnest in the 2020s, SJW's and feminists may likely have more power to enforce their ideology, many white will allow this to happen since they fear being ostracized for being racist/sexist.
I think the most accurate representation of the upcoming New World Order (which would be at its peak through 2026-2032) is 'Demolition Man', which is a film where a man from 1996 is frozen and thawed in the year 2032.
In the movie everything that is deemed bad is banned or illegal, people are more soft and are less equipped to deal with hard times. People in 2032 see themselves as the most enlightened and most peaceful people in history, and see people from the 20th century as 'savages'. I don't think that the upcoming New World Order would be as extreme as the society seen in Demolition Man, but it would likely share many similarities.
Here is a video link of predictions made by the film that may come true: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exILtC-3c_I
*Democrats may blame Russia or declare a war against cyber-hacking since voting numbers are very easy to tamper with.
---------- 'the number 1 issue among citizens is healthcare. young people are also more ambitious in making education available for all and regulating gun control.'
I noticed that young people are already working aggressively on regulating gun control, eventually gun control will be implemented I think which will result in outcry but the majority will approve.
Free or cheap healthcare may likely be implemented too, I can see this happening after the legalization of cannabis and the explosion of profit following the legalization.
Nearly all young people approve of the legalization of cannabis so it may be inevitable as soon as they are able to, cannabis tax will allow America to afford free healthcare which many people by then will be protesting for.
At the moment these events are in the air which is now surely cementing into reality, these events may truly take off when the next democratic president is elected or maybe even before that.
I cannot say for sure what will likely happen and how or in what order the following predictions will play out, but I think that sooner or later our government will be replaced with something else.
I've noticed lately that some people are not taking our governments seriously anymore and the people who feel that way do not see them as competent leaders, this trend will grow in the 2020s as fast as technology will.
Today the biggest threat to our outdated leaders is the internet, and I can see the government trying to control or censor the internet in a desperate attempt to stay relevant. Technology is advancing much quicker than our outdated leaders can keep up with and our society is moving ever faster, even today we can see that our leaders are not as effective as they once were in the 19th-20th century.
Today there is a British environmental 'Extinction Rebellion' movement who feel that the government has failed to take conservative measures to protect the environment hence threatening the future of our species, the 2020s will see a significant rise of similar groups who feel that their leaders have failed them.
The widespread unrest will spread the idea that todays government is no longer effective and may reach to the point where nobody takes the current government seriously anymore, this could result in a global power vacuum in which a new form of government takes its place.
As for Trumps presidency I cannot say what would happen, if Donald Trump wins the next election in 2020 his influence would more likely cause countries to pull out from the Paris Emission Agreement, the current protests in Paris may be a possible recipe for France itself to postpone or even cancel the Paris Emission Agreement.
If Donald Trump loses the next election or gets impeached then a Democratic candidate would likely take his place. A Democratic president will likely replace Trump at some point in the 2020s, the chances of Democratic dominance will increase as the decade marches on. If not 2020 then much more likely in 2024.
Due to personal bias I cannot see the Conservatives fairing as well as Donald Trump, if a public rebellion were to happen the Conservatives would likely back down and implode due to resignation.
The 2020s will indeed be a time when the current government will gradually crumble as they cannot keep up. The point where the government gives up their power would not happen until probably around 2025-2040, but until then they would likely try to remain in power as long as possible while the public and the internet grow stronger.
The 2020s would also be a time much like the start of the Industrial revolution, in the 1700s machines took peoples jobs and the rich got richer while the poor got poorer which rhymes a lot with today.
During the peak of the Industrial revolution in the 1800s London was over-populated and many working-class people suffered terrible living and working conditions. The 2020s may not be like 1800s London but at some point in the future it would reach to the point similar to 1800s London, how would this happen?
We are going through a trend where people are seeking for scientific methods to achieve immortality, knowing us this trend will never cease to grow until we actually do achieve immortality. The 2020s will likely see medical breakthroughs and a boom of immortality-based projects, hypochondria and health-obsession becomes normal, people use technology to monitor their own health and strive to live the healthiest longest life possible.
The 2020s will see a boom of personal healthcare which recommends lifestyles medicines and diets best suited for your genetic make-up.
The rich will likely have the most access to the latest cybernetic implants to extend their lifespans as well as the latest medicine, the 2020s would likely be the start of the Transhuman revolution as cyborgs become more common. The first Transhumans would likely be rich people while the poor people fall behind, the Transhuman trend may reach to the point (2035-2100) where we have a society of a powerful minority of elitist cyborgs and a great number of working-class humans who are struggling to survive, working-class humans may not be able to afford cybernetic implants and would likely die of a natural lifespan while cyborgs live longer.
The future Transhumans would likely not allow the majority to have access to life extensions due to the fact that the Earth may not be able to sustain such a high population, hence they believe that many people will have to die for the 'greater good'.
Below I have listed some likely trends of the 2020s for fun :-D Likely trends:
Britain and America continue to decline as global superpowers.
More people move into cities from rural areas.
Cities continue to grow into cosmopolitan centres of civilization while more rural areas become neglected.
The first megacity, likely in Asia.
More people get sick because of pollution.
The middle-east is the wealthiest region.
The first trillionaire, the rich become more rich and the poor poorer.
Unemployment reaches crisis levels as robots take over more jobs.
Environmentalist terrorism and uprisings.
Increase of obesity.
The first water wars, by 2030 water will be the most fought after resource and will become a weapon of war.
Increase of meat consumption.
More and more unemployed people get involved in protests and activism.
A continuous refugee and migrant crisis, in response right-wing and nationalist counties further reinforce their borders while left-wing countries allow the migrants to immigrate.
America accepts more refugees after Donald Trump leaves office.
A higher risk of war including World War III.
China becomes the first technocratic state.
I think Donald Trump would have to be lucky to remain in office until 2020, his disproval rating is generally one of the highest in Americas history if not the highest. With the way things are at the moment my gut feeling says that Donald Trump would more likely be impeached than remain until 2020.
Elizabeth Warren is a likely candidate that would be the next president after Trump, especially if the Democrats end up taking the majority of the seats in the White House. There would likely be a few Hillary Clinton-esque candidates who will fare better than Hillary Clinton did.
Meat consumption has indeed decreased in the Western World as well as some other developed countries, however meat consumption is on a rapid increase in developing countries.
In terms of meat consumption the developing world is currently in the same situation that American was in at 1950-1970 when it was on the rise, even today American meat consumption continues to increase but I doubt this would carry on for long especially if America implements a meat tax.
Personally I think little would discourage the developing nations from having a taste of what the western world has, unless Veganism becomes strong enough to reverse this trend.
Got some more predictions for the 2020s :-D
I may end up repeating a number of things I have previously mentioned already in this thread, but I think repeating themes is a way to work out likely outcomes as repeated predictions are a mathematical equivalent of working out the average. Increasing unrest and stress:
The brewing social unrest in the western world will heat up to the point it threatens the system (system being referred to as western society), many social unrests happen because the demands of society exceed the limit of what humans can tolerate.
Because of the technology that we have today, we have provided entertainment and other leisurely pursuits to distract the public from the pressures of day-to-day life and to offer temporarily relief, we also prescribe antidepressants to people who are depressed etc.
We have the technology to enhance the human threshold of tolerance and in our currant situation are prolonging the inevitable reform/revolution. A reform/revolution:
The 2020s will be a time with ever increasing stress, unhappiness and yet more unrest. A sense of powerlessness and a feeling of emptiness may be the primary force behind this trend as well as frustration, an increase of leftism being a primary symptom.
If a reform/revolution were to happen in the western world a leftist movement would likely take lead. The leftist movement would initially promise equality for everyone, that the system will care for every individual and provide free education/healthcare, peace and prosperity, and would also promise to solve unemployment.
Although the leftist reform would initially have good intentions things would likely not turn out as promised, while many leftists are moderate and tolerant the kind of leftists who would be in power will usually be the ones who want absolute power over everything.
Even in the 2020s soon after the reform people will notice that more things are being banned, political correctness would tighten its grip on personal freedom. This trend would set the stage of a socialist America that would eventually wane down in 2035-2065 due to hedonistic tech savvies. More Technology:
In the 2000s a cell phone was only an option because nobody needed a cell phone to be a functioning member of the system, in the 2010s however you are required to have a cell phone to be a functioning member of the system.
Imagine what would happen if implants became an option in the 2020s but became a requirement in the 2030s, it would not be farfetched to assume that you would not be able to do many things without an implant that tracks your health and/or any other information.
As technology advances life in the system will become more complex and stressful, technologies will often bring on problems not foreseen. For our currant civilization to survive it will have to reach a point where people are required to be upgraded so they can keep up and remain functional members of society.
The future leftist party would likely be pro-technology, because initially they believe that technology will solve all of our problems and will benefit humanity. Worsening economy:
The 2020s will be a time of worsening global recession, America would especially suffer from this. The economic crisis of the 2020s will likely be a huge contributing factor for whatever would happen in the 2020s.
The economic crisis could even result in a global shutdown and a global economic reset, it is possible that the reform/revolution would happen during this turbulent time.
Thank you :-D I'm glad that my predictions make sense and are believable (that's what I was aiming for), and there is nothing wrong with eating meat so don't worry about that, I thought I would try and predict the future trend of meat consumption since I covered many other things too.
Donald Trump sure is making quite a power vacuum which will be released once he leaves office, it is likely that Trump leaving office would start the leftist dominance of American politics.
This could happen as early as 2019 but most likely as soon as the 2020s begins at the 2020 election, however if that happens there may still be a reform/revolution in the 2020s but it would focus more on making America more left as some liberals would feel like not enough progressive action is taken.
FINANCIAL SPREAD BETTING. Financial spread betting is a way of gaining leveraged access to trade on world equities, indices, FX, bonds, interest rates and commodities markets.. Also known as 'financial spreadbetting' or simply 'financial betting', attractions to investors include no Capital Gains Tax or stamp duty on profits, the ability to benefit from prices falling as well as rising, and Spreadex - Corporate History; Spreadex Review; Spreadex Interview; Spreadex Interview Interview with Andy Mackenzie of Spreadex, conducted by Guido, co-editor - Financial-Spread-Betting.com. E-mail us for questions or to suggest an interview at traderATfinancial-spread-betting.com.. Financial-Spread-Betting: Today, we are pleased to interview Andy Mackenzie of Spreadex.com. I like to bet on different platforms:spreads,fixed odds,exchanges and I probably prefer spread betting.I have had an account with Spreadex for over twenty years and executed tens of thousands of trades and not once had a problem!Their online site is very easily navigable ,and payout is next day without fail.Winning or losing with them ,at least Spreadex Review: Spreadex have been around since the 1990’s and have won a plethora of awards, most recently the Wealth and Financial International, Alternative Investment Awards 2016 (Best Spread Betting Provider – winner) and City of London Wealth Management Awards 2016 (Best Spread Betting Provider – winner). Spreadex focuss heavily on building longer term relationships with their “The ease of spread betting” Written on: 27/09/2013 by Spikey123 (1 review written) Spread betting is my preferred method of betting and Spreadex are my preferred betting company. I mainly use the phone app for betting and this is pretty much perfect. It's fast, easy to use and very easy to navigate.
Rating is available when the video has been rented. ... Genworth Financial Commercial - Duration: ... What is Sports Spread Betting? - Duration: 2:07. Spreadex 9,668 views. Key Spread Betting Strategy 2: You Win Some, You Lose Some! As a financial speculator you mustn't expect to win every trade you carry out. This is by and large impossible and even the most ... Financial spread betting is simple with Spreadex. We give you instant access to a wide range of financial instruments and markets, and let you place bets on whether they'll be higher or lower at ... Spreadex http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/spreadex/Spreadex.html was started over 10 years old. To place a spread trade select a market and click 'Tra... Trade with Spreadex the financial spread betting experts. Trade with Spreadex the financial spread betting experts. Skip navigation ... Rating is available when the video has been rented.