Bitch you better read if you want your Robinhood to look like this: gainz, bitch Why am I telling you this? Because I like your dumb asses. Even dickbutts like cscqb4. And because I like seeing Wall St. fucking get rekt. Y’all did good until now, and Wall St. is salty af. Just google for “retail traders” news if you haven’t seen it, and you’ll see the salty tears of Wall Street assholes. And I like salty Wall St. assholes crying like bitches. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-investors-are-crushing-hedge-funds-again That said, some of you here are really motherfucking dense & the sheer influx of retardation has been driving away some of the more knowledgeable folks on this sub. In fact, in my last post, y'all somehow managed to downvote to shit the few guys that really understood the points I was making and tried to explain it to you poo-slinging apes. Stop that shit yo! A lot of you need to sit the fuck down, shut your fucking mouth and listen. So I'm going to try and turn you rag-tag band of dimwits into a respectable army of peasants that can clap some motherfucking Wall Street cheeks. Then, I'm going to give you a mouthbreather-proof trade that I don't think even you knuckleheads can mess up (though I may be underestimating you). If you keep PM-ing me about your stupid ass losses after this, I will find out where you live and personally, PERSONALLY, shit on your doorstep. This is going to be a long ass post. Read the damned post. I don't care if you're dyslexic, use text-to-speech. Got ADHD? Pop your addys, rub one out, and focus! Are you 12? Make sure to go post in the paper trading contest thread first. THE RULES:
Understand that most of this sub has the critical reading skills of a 6 year old and the attention span of a goldfish. As such, my posts are usually written with a level of detail aimed at the lowest common denominator. A lot of details on the thesis are omitted, but that doesn't mean that the contents in the post are all there is to it. If I didn't do that, every post'd have to be longer than this one, and 98% of you fucks wouldn't read it anyway. Fuck that.
Understand that my style of making plays is finding the >10+ baggers that are underpriced. As such, ALL THE GOD DAMN PLAYS I POST ARE HIGH-RISK / HIGH-REWARD. Only play what you can afford to risk. And stop PM-ing me the second the market goes the other way, god damn it! If you can't manage your own positions, I'm going to teach your ass the basics.
Do you have no idea what you're doing and have a question? Google it first. Then google it again. Then Bing it, for good measure. Might as well check PornHub too, you never know. THEN, if you still didn't find the answer, you ask.
This sub gives me Tourette's. If you got a problem with that, well fuck you.
This shit is targeted at the mouthbreathers, but maybe more knowledgeable folk’ll find some useful info, idk. How do you know if you’re in the mouthbreather category? If your answer to any of the following questions is yes, then you are:
Are you new to trading?
Are you unable to manage your own positions?
Did you score into the negatives on the SAT Critical Reading section?
Do you think Delta is just an airline?
Do you buy high & sell low?
Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap?
Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2?
Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr?
Do you think I'm trying to sell you puts?
If you take a trade you see posted on this sub and are down, do you PM the guy posting it?
Do you generally PM people on this sub to ask them basic questions?
Is your mouth your primary breathing apparatus?
Well I have just the thing for you! Table of Contents: I. Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS IV. Busting your retarded myths V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND VI. The mouthbreather-proof trade - The Akimbo VII. Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers Chapter I - Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about I'm not here to rip you off. Every fucking time I post something, a bunch of dumbasses show up saying I'm selling you puts or whatever the fuck retarded thoughts come through their caveman brains.
Sit down, Barney, I'm not here to scam you for your 3 cents on OTM puts. Do I always get it right? Of course not, dumbasses. Eurodollar play didn't work out (yet). Last TQQQ didn't work out (yet). That’s just how it goes. Papa Buffet got fucked on airlines. Plain retard Burry bought GME. What do you fucking expect? Meanwhile, I keep giving y'all good motherfucking plays:
28/10/2019: "I'ma say this again, in case you haven't heard me the first time. BUY $JNK PUTS NOW!". Strike: "11/15, 1/17 and 6/19". "This thing can easily go below 50, so whatever floats your boat. Around $100 strike is a good entry point."
3/9/2020: "I mean it's a pretty obvious move, but $JNK puts."
3/19/2020, 12pm: "UVXY put FDs are free money." & “Buy $UVXY puts expiring tomorrow if we're still green at 3pm. Trust me.”
3/24/2020: “$UUP 3/27 puts at $27.5 or $27 should be 10-baggers once the bill passes. I'd expect it to go to around $26.”
And of course, the masterpiece that was the TQQQ put play. Chapter II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression Do you really understand what happened? Let's go through it. I got in puts on 2/19, right at the motherfucking top, TQQQ at $118. I told you on 2/24 TQQQ ($108) was going to shit, and to buy fucking puts, $90ps, $70ps, $50ps, all the way to 3/20 $30ps. You think I just pulled that out of my ass? You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is? Well, let's take a look at what the fuckstick Kevin Cook from Zacks wrote on 3/5: How Many Sigmas Was the Flash Correction Plunge?
"Did you know that last week's 14% plunge in the S&P 500 SPY was so rare, by statistical measures, that it shouldn't happen once but every 14,000 years?" "By several measures, it was about a 5-sigma move, something that's not "supposed to" happen more than once in your lifetime -- or your prehistoric ancestors' lifetimes! "According to general statistical principles, a 4-sigma event is to be expected about every 31,560 days, or about 1 trading day in 126 years. And a 5-sigma event is to be expected every 3,483,046 days, or about 1 day every 13,932 years."
On 3/5, TQQQ closed at $81. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right? That's what fuckstick says:
"Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences. This was the primary lesson of Nassim Taleb's 2007 book The Black Swan, written before the financial crisis that found Wall Street bankers completely ignorant of randomness and the risks of ruin." I also took advantage of the extreme 5-sigma sell-off by grabbing a leveraged ETF on the Nasdaq 100, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ. In my plan, while I might debate the merits of buying AAPL or MSFT for hours, I knew I could immediately buy them both with TQQQ and be rewarded very quickly after the 14% plunge."
"The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).
Let's see what Stephen Mathai-Davis, CFA, CQF, WTF, BBQ, Founder and CEO of Q.ai - Investing Reimagined, a Forbes Company, and a major fucktard has to say at this point:
"Our AI models are telling us to buy SPY (the SPDR S&P500 ETF and a great proxy for US large-cap stocks) but since all models are based on past data, does it really make sense? " "While it may or may not make sense to buy stocks, it definitely is a good time to sell “volatility.” And yes, you can do it in your brokerage account! Or, you can ask your personal finance advisor about it." "So what is the takeaway? I don’t know if now is the right time to start buying stocks again but it sure looks like the probabilities are in your favor to say that we are not going to experience another 7 standard deviation move in U.S. Stocks. OTM (out-of-the-money) Put Spreads are a great way to get some bullish exposure to a rally in the SPY while also shorting such rich volatility levels."
"tinygiraffe21 1 point 2 months ago Haha when? I’m loading up in 4/17 25 puts" "dlkdev Scratch that, helicopter money is here." "AfgCric 1 point 2 months ago What does that mean?" "It means the Fed & Trump are printing trillions with no end in sight. If they go through with this, this was probably the bottom."
Idiot, I have no way of knowing that Billy boy Ackman was going to go on CNBC and cry like a little bitch to make everyone dump, so he can get out of his shorts. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it. Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything? No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags. Video of Billy & the Fed train Here's what Billy boy says:
“But if they don’t, and the government takes the right steps, this hedge could be worth zero, and the stock market could go right back up to where it was. So we made the decision to exit.”
https://www.businessinsider.sg/bill-ackman-explains-coronavirus-trade-single-best-all-time-podcast-2020-5 Also, “the single best trade of all time.” my ass, it was only a 100-bagger. I gave y’all a 150-bagger. So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp. Chapter III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS RULE 1. YOU NEVER BUY OPTIONS AT OPEN. You NEVER OVERPAY for an option. You never FOMO into buying too fast. You NEVER EVER NEVER pump the premium on a play. I saw you fuckers buying over 4k TQQQ 5/22 $45 puts in the first minutes of trading. You pumped the premium to over $0.50 dudes. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. Let me explain simply: Let's say a put on ticker $X at strike $50 is worth $1, and a put at strike $51 is worth $2. If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher. If you overpay at $2 for the $50p, the market maker will just buy $51ps for $2 and sell you $50ps for 2$. Or he'll buy longer-dated $50ps and sell you shorter-dated $50ps. Max risk for him is now 0, max gain is $1. You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats. You need to get in with patience, especially if you see other autists here wanting to go in at the same time. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. If it doesn't fill, AND the price of the option hasn't moved much recently, you can bump the bid $0.01. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all? You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later. RULE 2. WATCH THE TIME. Algos are especially active at x:00, x:02, x:08, x:12, x:30 and x:58. Try not to buy at those times. RULE 3. YOU USE MULTIPLE BROKERS. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. If you don't have another one, open up a tasty, IB, TD, Schwab, whatever. But for cheap faggy puts (or calls), Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money!", Robinhood is the best. Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays. RULE 4. YOU DON'T START A TRADE WITH BIG POSITIONS. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you. You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to RULE 5. MANAGING YOUR WINNERS: Your position going for you? Good job! Now POUND THAT SHIT! And again. Move your strikes to cheaper puts/calls, and pound again. And again. Snowball those gains. RULE 6A. POUND THOSE $0.01 PUTS: So you bought some puts and they’re going down? Well, the moment they reach $0.01, YOU POUND THOSE PUTS (assuming there’s enough time left on them, not shit expiring in 2h). $0.01 puts have amazing risk/return around the time they reach $0.01. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? Well it’s the reverse of that. RULE 6B. MANAGING YOUR LOSERS: Your position going against you? Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? WRONG DUMBASS. You manage that by POUNDING THAT SHIT. Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around. You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage. The market can only react. That's your edge, so USE IT! Like this: Example 1: Initial TQQQ 5/22 position = $5,000. Starts losing? You pound it. https://preview.redd.it/gq938ty8e5151.png?width=944&format=png&auto=webp&s=734ab7ed517f0e6822bfaaed5765d1272de398d1 Total pounded in 5/22 TQQQ puts = $10,824. Unfortunately expired worthless (but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads) Then the autists show up:
"Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?" - cscqb4
You have a downside position, but market going up or nowhere? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit. Example 2: 5/22, long weekend coming right? So you use your brain & try to predict what could happen over the 3-day weekend. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play. I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play. Sold some ES_F spreads (for those unaware, ES is a 50x multiplier, so 1 SPX = 2 ES = 10 SPY, approximately). -47x 2955/2960 bear call spreads for $2.5. Max gain is $2.5, max loss is 2960-2955 = $5. A double-or-nothing basically. That's $5,875 in premium, max loss = 2x premium = $11,750. Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3,014 now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. How? I have: 47x 2960 calls -47x 2955 calls Pajama traders getting all up in my grill? Well then I buy back 1 of the 2955 calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over 2980, around 2982-ish. Paid $34.75, initially shorted at $16.95, so booked a -$892 loss, for now. But now what do I have? 46x 2955/2960 bear calls 1x 2960 long call So the fuckers can pump it. In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make. Each $2.5 move up in the futures covers the max loss for 1 spread. With SPX now at ~3015, that call is $55 ITM. Covers 24/46 contracts rn. If they wanna run it up, at 3070 it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over 3050 if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? well under 2960 it's profit time again. They wanna do a shitty pin at 3000 today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there. Later edit: that was written yesterday. Got out with a loss of only $1.5k out of the max $5,875. Not bad. And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position. RULE 7 (ESPECIALLY FOR BEARS). YOU DON'T KEEP EXTRA CASH IN YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker. But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Why? Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans. Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. Your individual cash probably doesn't make a dent, but a million autists with an extra $1200 trumpbucks means $1.2b. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Even if it's FDIC or SIPC insured, it's gonna take time until you see that money again. Chapter IV. BUSTING YOUR RETARDED MYTHS MYTH 1 - STONKS ONLY GO UP Do you think the market can go up forever? Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr? Do you think SPX will be at 5000 by the end of the month? Do you think $1.5 trillion is a good entry point for stonks like AAPL or MSFT? Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap? Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2? Well, this section is for you! Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs. What's your target for the SPX top? Think 3500 by the end of the year? 3500 by September? 4000? 4500? 5000? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables. Let's say SPX only goes up, a moderate 0.5% each period as a compounded avg. (i.e. up a bit down a bit whatever, doesn't matter as long as at the end of your period, if you look back and do the math, you'll get that number). Let's call this variable BRRR = 0.005. Can you do the basic math to calculate the value at the end of x periods? Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you. Let's say our period is one week. That is, SPX goes up on average 0.5% each week on Fed BRRR: 2950 * (1.005^x), where x is the number of periods (weeks in this case) So, after 1 month, you have: 2950 * (1.005^4) = 3009 After 2 months: 2950 * (1.005^8) = 3070 End of the year? 2950 * (1.005^28) = 3392 Now clearly, we're already at 3015 on the futures, so we're moving way faster than that. More like at a speed of BRRR = 1%/wk 2950 * (1.01^4) = 3069 2950 * (1.01^8) = 3194 2950 * (1.01^28) = 3897 Better, but still slower than a lot of permabulls would expect. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX 4000-4500 by September. Like this dude, David Hunter, "Contrarian Macro Strategist w/40+ years on Wall Street". IDIOTIC. https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/status/1263066368414568448 That'd be 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4000 => BRRR = 1.0257 and 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4500 => BRRR = 1.0358, respectively. Here's why that can't happen, no matter the amount of FED BRRR: Leverage. Compounded Leverage. There's currently over $100b in leveraged etfs with a 2.5x avg. leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. TQQQ alone is now at almost $6b in AUM (topped in Fed at a little over $7b). Now, let's try to estimate what happens to TQQQ's AUM when BRRR = 1.0257. 3XBRRR = 1.0771. Take it at 3XBRRR = 1.07 to account for slippage in a medium-volatility environment and ignore the fact that the Nasdaq-100 would go up more than SPX anyway. $6,000,000,000 * (1.07^4) = $7,864,776,060 $6,000,000,000 * (1.07^8) = $10,309,100,000 $6,000,000,000 * (1.07^12) = $13,513,100,000 $6,000,000,000 * (1.07^28) = $39,893,000,000. What if BRRR = 1.0358? => 3XBRR = 1.1074. Take 3XBRRR = 1.10. $6,000,000,000 * (1.1^4) = $8,784,600,000 $6,000,000,000 * (1.1^8) = $12,861,500,000 $6,000,000,000 * (1.1^12) = $18,830,600,000 $6,000,000,000 * (1.1^28) = $86,526,000,000 And this would have to get 3x leveraged every day. And this is just for TQQQ. Let's do an estimation for all leveraged funds. $100b AUM, 2.5 avg. leverage factor, BRRR = 1.0257 => 2.5BRRR = 1.06425 $100b * (1.06^4) = $128.285b $100b * (1.06^8) = $159.385b $100b * (1.06^12) = $201.22b $100b * (1.06^28) = $511.169b That'd be $1.25 trillion sloshing around each day. And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable. In the long run, it doesn't matter if the Fed goes BRRR, if TQQQ takes in it's share of 3XBRRR. And the Fed can't go 3XBRRR, because then TQQQ would take in 9XBRRR. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things. Watch (or rewatch) this: Selena Gomez & Richard H. Thaler Explaining Synthetic CDO through BLACKJACK My general point, at the mouth-breather level, is that Fed BRRR cannot be infinite, because leverage. And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. TQQQ and SQQQ started out at $8m each. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. When TQQQ made a million, SQQQ lost a million (minus a small spread, which was the bank's profit). Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened. Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular. And so, TQQQ ended up being $6-7b, while SQQQ was at $1b. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. Long leveraged ETF AUM became disproportionate to short AUM. And it matters a whole fucking lot. Because if you think of the casino, TQQQ walks up every day and says "I'd like to put $18b on red", while SQQQ walks up and says "I'd only like to put $3b on black". And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge. Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself. If you were a time traveller, how much money do you think you could make by trading derivatives? Do you think you could make $20 trillion? You know the future prices after all... But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Call it the Time-travelling WSB Autist Paradox. If you had a bucket with a hole in the bottom, even if you poured an infinite amount of water into it, it would never be full. Because there's a LIQUIDITY SINK, just like there is one in the markets. And that, my mouth-breathing friends, is the reason why FED BRRR cannot be infinite. Or alternatively, "STONKS MUST GO BOTH UP AND DOWN". MYTH 2 - YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET On Jan 14, 2020, I predicted this: Assuming that corona doesn't become a problem, "AAPL: Jan 28 $328.3, Jan 31 $316.5, April 1 $365.7, May 1 $386, July 1 $429 December 31 $200." Now take a look at the AAPL chart in January. After earnings AAPL peaked at $327.85. On 1/31, after the 1st hour of trading, when the big boys make moves, it was at $315.63. Closed 1/31 at $309.51. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too? Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. And these days, we have a whole lot of RETARDED FLOW. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Stuff like:
ETF flows. If MSFT goes up and AAPL goes down, part of that flow is going to move from AAPL to MSFT. Even if MSFT flash-crashes up to $1000, the ETF will still "buy". Because it's passive.
Option settlement flows. Once options expire, money is going to flow from one side to another, and that my friends is accurately predictable from the data.
Index rebalancing flows
401k passive flows
Carry trade flows
Tax day flows
Flows of people front-running the flows
And many many others. Spot the flow, and you get an edge. How could I predict where AAPL would be after earnings within 50 cents and then reverse down to $316 2 days later? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? Well, AAPL earnings (The 8-K) come out on a Wednesday. The next morning, after market opens the 10-Q comes out. And that 10-Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares. But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the 10-Q. And that gives you EDGE. Which leads to MYTH 3 - BUYBACKS DON'T MATTER Are you one of those mouthbreathers that parrots the phrase "buybacks are just a tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders"? Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. Second bit: On 1/28, AAPL's market cap is closing_price x free_float_outstanding_shares. But that's not the REAL MARKET CAP. Because the number of outstanding shares is OLD AS FUCK. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on.
"But ETFs won't change the number of shares they hold, they will still hold the same % of AAPL in the index" - random_wsb_autist
Oh my fucking god you're dumb as fuck. FLOWS change. And the next day, when TQQQ comes by and puts its massive $18b dong on the table, the market will hedge that differently. And THAT CAN BE PREDICTED. That's why AAPL was exactly at $316 1 hour after the market opened on 1/31. So, what can you use to spot moves? Let me show you: Market topped on 2/19. Here’s SPY. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines. https://preview.redd.it/7agm171eh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=d94b90dcd634c8dc688925585bf0a02c3299f71b Nobody could have seen it coming, right? WRONG AGAIN. Here: https://preview.redd.it/i1kdp3cgh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a1e086e9217846547efd3b6c5249f4a7ebe6d9e In fact, JPYUSD gave you two whole days to see it. Those are NOT normal JPYUSD moves. But hey maybe it’s just a fluke? Wrong again. https://preview.redd.it/fsyhenckh5151.png?width=3693&format=png&auto=webp&s=03200e10b008257ae15d40b474c4cf4d8c23670f Forex showed you that all over the place. Why? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH. It doesn’t matter why, but remember people pulling cash out of ATMs all over the world? Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means. The reversal: https://preview.redd.it/4xe97l0oh5151.png?width=1336&format=png&auto=webp&s=07aaa93f6b1d8f542101e40e431edccbc109918f https://preview.redd.it/v6i0pdmoh5151.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=74d5589961db2f978d4d582e6d7c58a85f6305f9 But it wasn’t just forex. Gold showed it to you as well. Bonds showed it to you as well. https://preview.redd.it/40j53u8th5151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe39ab51321d0f98149d33e33253e69f96c48e23 Even god damn buttcoin showed it to you. https://preview.redd.it/43lvafhvh5151.png?width=3705&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef53283cbc0fb97f71c1ba935c0bd747809636e And they all did it for 2 days before the move hit equities. Chapter V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND You see all these bankruptcies that happened so far, and all the ones that are going to follow? Do you think that’s just dogshit companies and it won’t have major effects on anything outside them? WRONG. Because there’s a lot of leveraged instruments on top of those equities. When the stock goes to 0, all those outstanding puts across all expirations get instantly paid. Understand that Feb-March was a liquidity MOAB. But this will end with a liquidity nuke. Here’s just HTZ for example: $239,763,550 in outstanding puts. Just on a single dogshit small-cap company (this thing was like $400m mkt. cap last week). And that’s just the options on the equity. There’s also instruments on etfs that hold HTZ, on the bonds, on the ETFs that hold their bonds, swaps, warrants, whatever. It’s a massive pile of leverage. Then there’s also the ripple effects. Were you holding a lot of HTZ in your brokerage margin account? Well guess what big boi, when that gaps to 0 you get a margin call, and then you become a liquidity drain. Holding long calls? 0. Bonds 0. DOG SHIT! And the market instantly goes from holding $x in assets (HTZ equity / bonds / calls) to holding many multiples of x in LIABILITIES (puts gone wrong, margin loans, derivatives books, revolvers, all that crap). And it doesn’t matter if the Fed buys crap like HTZ bonds. You short them some. Because when it hits 0, it’s no longer about supply and demand. You get paid full price, straight from Jerome’s printer. Is the Fed going to buy every blown up derivative too? Because that's what they'd have to do. Think of liquidity as a car. The faster it goes, the harder it becomes to go even faster. At some point, you can only go faster by driving off a cliff. THE SQUEEZE. But you stop instantly when you hit the ground eventually. And that’s what shit’s doing all over the place right now. Rewatch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hG4X5iTK8M And just like that fucker, “I’m standing in front of a burning house, and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.” Don’t baghold! Now is not the time to baghold junk. Take your cash. Not the time to buy cheap crap. You don’t buy Hertz. You don’t buy USO. You don’t buy airlines, or cruises, or GE, or motherfucking Disney. And if you have it, dump that shit. And the other dogshit that’s at ATH, congrats you’re in the green. Now you take your profits and fucking dump that shit. I’m talking shit like garbage SaaS, app shit, AI shit, etc. Garbage like MDB, OKTA, SNAP, TWLO, ZM, CHGG etc. And you dump those garbage ass leveraged ETFs. SQQQ, TQQQ, whatever, they’re all dogshit now. The leverage MUST unwind. And once that’s done, some of you will no longer be among us if you don’t listen. A lot of leveraged ETFs will be gone. Even some non-leveraged ETFs will be gone. Some brokers will be gone, some market makers will be gone, hell maybe even some big bank has to go under. I can’t know which ones will go poof, but I can guarantee you that some will. Another reason to diversify your shit. There’s a reason papa Warrant Buffet dumped his bags, don’t think you’re smarter than him. He may be senile, but he’s still a snake. And once the unwind is done, THEN you buy whatever cheap dogshit’s still standing. Got it? Good. You feel ready to play yet? Alright, so you catch a move. Or I post a move and you wanna play it. You put on a small position. When it’s going your way, YOU POUND DAT SHIT. Still going? Well RUSH B CYKA BLYAT AND PLANT THE GOD DAMN 3/20 $30p BOMB. Chapter VI - The mouthbreather-proof play - THE AKIMBO Still a dumbass that can’t make a play? Still want to go long? Well then, I got a dumbass-proof trade for you. I present to you THE AKIMBO: STEP 1. You play this full blast. You need some real Russian hardbass to get you in the right mood for trading, cyka. STEP 2. Split your play money in 3. Remember to keep extra bankroll for POUNDING THAT SHIT. STEP 3. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy SQQQ 9/18 $5p, pay $0.05. Not more than $0.10. STEP 4. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy TQQQ 9/18 $20p, pay around $0.45. Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous, 7/17 $35p’s for around $0.5. STEP 5. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy VIX PUT SPREADS 9/15 $21/$20 spread for around $0.15, no more than $0.25. That is, you BUY the 21p and SELL the 20p. Only using Robinhood and don’t have the VIX? What did I just tell you? Well fine, use UVXY then. Just make sure you don’t overpay. Chapter VII - Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers Quick tips, cuz apparently I'm out of space, there's a 40k character limit on reddit posts. Who knew?
Hi Guys!! I’m back again with another post as I continue my forex trading journey! I’ve opened a live account on XM with the $30 trading bonus they give for joining as a new member just to begin really trading with real money after spending some time on demo for a bit. Long story short, I didn’t know it was a lot more tougher growing a small account, like really really tough!! I’m making at most $1,70 per trade (3 trades per day) and the minimum is like 85c! My risk management is pretty damn tight! I’m starting to see that you really have to bump up the risk quite a bit to even see decent returns on an account that’s less than $100. However I’m not ready for that yet. So I’ll continue to work with this $30 account until I eventually blow it, I’ll see how long I can keep it going for. At the moment my lot size I’m trading with is 0.01! I’m seeking for advice on how to try and possibly grow such a small account as best as I can. And my final question is, when I’m ready to make that leap, how much do I realistically need to begin trading to see a decent amount of growth in profits? I’m not wanting to get rich. My aim is to 1 day earn $100 a day. Which is enough for me to live off in my country when all is calculated up in a month! Thank you for taking your time to respond your advice in the past has allowed me to continue. Take care and stay blessed!
https://www.safeinvestingsites.com/minimizing-risk-in-the-forex-trading-useful-software-forex-trendy/ Why did Forex Traders fail? One of the reasons is the lack of risk management! Most people try Forex trading because they heard or read the success story of Forex Trader somewhere. He may be a relative, friend, or experienced trader. They jump into Forex trading and here they get the option of Leverage or margin. Every Forex trading account provider allows you to trade big against less balance in your account. It is good but only experienced traders can use it for profit. It gives you a bigger chance to earn money but, even bigger risk opens, as you may lose entire money in your account in just one trade!!! It is no joke. It happens to every trader because of shame he doesn’t tell others about his huge loss. There are many reasons to fail in Forex trading like over trading, trading addiction, not adapting to market conditions, trade without a proper plan, and most important unrealistic expectations. The trader expects a huge profit in a single trade and even if he is in loss, he doesn’t exit the trade by taking a minimum loss. He waits, waits, and waits until the end. The result is obvious. Huge Loss! Here comes the Forex risk management calculator to help you. There are many Forex risk management calculators in the market. You can download it from the Google play store. Using the Forex risk management calculator you get an idea about how to trade safely in the Forex market
Hey, I hope you're doing well. Forex market gives you all sorts of emotion at the start. You'll learn to not feel anything in your journey. The reason I wrote the post is to give some tips, see I started not too long ago and found out some tips that would have saved me from blowing my account. 1) Don't bet against the market, you aren't pro yet like in the Big Short. Trade the trends. 2) Price actions matters most, technical analysis and fundamental analysis are good tools but what's telling you what is the charts. 3) Use ATR (average true range) to determine how many lots you want to allocate. Also don't forget to calculate the price per pip. 4) Don't trade on public holidays. Most heavy movers are not there so the market tend to have very high spreads. This will eat you up unless you know what you're doing and your stop loss is very strong. 5) When you have bad trade days, quit trading. Don't chase it. I know this feeling man, it sucks. But you have to accept the error and learn from it. Trade when everything is in your favor. 6) Don't get overconfident just because you're ahead! Protect your wins at all costs. Sometimes it's better not to trade. You do not have to trade daily, while the idea of making money everyday sounds cool realistically some days you will be sitting in front of screen planning your next trade. 7) This one is something you might already know, don't ever sell low and buy high. It works sometime but you are giving yourself a huge risk. And your stop loss will likely hit, basically wasting good money. 8) Take your wins, don't get too greedy. Currencies are correalated with one another, check the health of the trend if it starts slowing down you might want to take your profits. 9)Don't put too much pressure on yourself, you will get there. You will learn and be successful how you want. Don't rush, don't over trade. That's all that I can think of. Personally, I have blown 2 live accounts with thousands in it. Right now I am seeing profits consistently, but it wasn't easy. It's hard to win back your losses, so cut them off when you can. And don't hold on to them! Never put your hard earned money hoping for someone else to move the trend. Ride the trend, respect it and enjoy your winnings. I hope this helps you out, from the bottom of my heart. To my senior traders, please feel free to give me further advice. I am always looking to learn and improve. Good luck and stay safe!
eToro Review, how to recover money lost trading on eToro
Exchanging has consistently been a precarious activity; accomplishing higher alpha is among the top needs of store chiefs. In spite of the fact that this may appear to be a negligible 'savvy work', with the zillion measure of data moving during each time into the monetary markets, a store administrator (FM) is rendered unfit to adapt and complete his activity elite and most extreme return. eToro Review, how to recover money lost trading on eToro Multi-resource (cross-resource) class exchanging includes great measure of research and examination, and to make a benefit through this training requires a FM to effectively work nearby the broker - Alpha is the thing that it is about (Skinner, 2007). Discovering liquidity and making benefit on exchanges executed with more prominent spreads and returns has been a definitive point of most fence FM's. In any case, with expanded guideline and straightforwardness in the present monetary markets FM's have needed to investigate better ways to deal with accomplish the ideal alpha and at last make benefits. Utilization of calculations in exchanging has seen critical development in the previous decade. Different systems exist to help a FM in his/her mission for alpha. These vary across resource classes, exchange sizes, chance craving and different elements. Exchanging plans to talk about the basics of algorithmic exchanging with a view on displaying procedures which may help in choosing a calculation system. In resulting articles we hypothetically manufacture an alpha-model fit for keen request directing over different settings. We will likewise address a couple of calculation assessment rules dependent on examine around there. We finish this arrangement of articles with accentuation on the effect of innovation in the development of calculation exchanging. The arrangement closes with investigation on a thought of utilization of distributed computing to actualize algorithmic models. Shouldn't something be said about gambling 1%? Would that be more secure? Shockingly, the appropriate response is no. On the off chance that you hazard excessively little on each exchange, you wind up devastating your record development seriously over the long haul. Gambling too little is similarly as awful as gambling an excessive amount of with regards to boosting your exchanging benefits. As should be obvious, Forex exchanging cash the executives resembles navigating a precarious situation... you have to get the correct equalization to remain on course. As a matter of first importance, you should realize that the 2% rule is intended to augment your benefits while limiting your hazard over the long haul. If you somehow managed to chance say 10% or even 5%, you would think that its difficult to recuperate your misfortunes after a couple losing exchanges. For instance, if you somehow happened to lose 20% of your record, you would need to have a 25% increase just to earn back the original investment. What a great many people don't understand is that the ideal hazard per exchange isn't really 2% for each framework. It truly shifts dependent on the hazard profile of the exchanging framework you're running. 2% is considered as extremely traditionalist for most frameworks, and for certain frameworks it's similarly as awful as gambling 1% on the grounds that it's excessively low. In the event that you need to err on the side of caution, you should focus on a hazard for every exchange of between 2-4%, 2% being the most moderate setting and 4% being the most forceful. The distinction between 2-4% can be twofold or even triple your exchanging benefits for the year! With everything taken into account, Forex exchanging cash the executives is an imperative part of exchanging Forex productively and effectively. Without an ideal Forex exchanging cash the executives procedure, you're costing yourself a great many dollars consistently. Obviously, regardless of how great your cash the executives methodology might be, you need a gainful Forex exchanging framework to supplement it also. With these two components set up, your exchanging will be relentless! Forex is my obsession, which is the reason I truly love helping anybody to defeat their difficulties and become beneficial in their own exchanging.
This is gonna be a somewhat detailed post, please scroll down for the bottom line. I have been interested in financial markets since high school, but I lacked any knowledge of basics economics as I was a physics major. Fast forward today I am a second year BBA and I feel like I have learned a lot, but only because I have started from scratch, meaning there is still a lot left for me to learn. I like to be very prepared before I go into anything which is why I have never even considered trading until I feel I have a very solid knowledge of finance and macroeconomics. However during this pandemic the market was just too good to miss on, I saw people making insane profits and I could not resist, I wanted my share of profits as well! I started buying and selling TVIX for very short amount of times and making some profits (nothing significant, also very small capital). However as exams approached I realised I could not watch my screen the whole day to collect a few euros here and there, so late aprilI bought some stocks that I beleived most definitely will go up long term, name SPY,TSLA, and AAL. yesterday AAL was up 40% and though the earnings were little given my small investment, the euphoria I got was truly something else, nonetheless I am fully aware that if I start day trading I will definitely lose money because I still do not fully understad how this thing really works, if I do not go fully prepared for something, and do not understand it thouroughly, I will fuck up which is something I learned during my high school years,therefore I have checked a few websites, and youtube channels but they jump directly into indicators and tools for technical analysis and how to use them, which really numbs my brain. What I'm asking for is books,channels,websites and any similar resources that will help me understand the fundamentals of macroeconomics and banking system and really anything else that could help, I'm talking CDO's, investment vehicles, debt term structure, anything even tangential to trading as long as it is thorough and explains everything in excruciating detail (deriving formulas,psychology and logic and calculations behind indicators etc...). I plan on trading mainly options, forex and stocks, so I want to be very knowledgeable before I jump into anything, and I do not mind taking my time before I start.
What is Forex Trading: Forex Trading is trading currencies from different countries against each other. Forex is an inter-bank market that took shape in 1971 when global trade shifted from fixed exchange rates to floating ones. This is a set of transactions among Forex market agents involving exchange of specified sums of money in a currency unit of any given nation for currency of another nation at an agreed rate as of any specified date. During exchange, the exchange rate of one currency to another currency is determined simply: by supply and demand - exchange to which both parties agree. Actually Forex is the financial game between BULLS and BEARS. The Major currencies pairs are: EUUSD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD And these are the 6 best Forex Markets. What are Forex Signals? Forex signals are indicators that let you know when it's a good time to buy or sell a currency pair. They provide you with insight as to what's going on in the Forex market without the necessity to monitor Forex trends throughout the day. If you are self-employed or employed by another company, Forex trading is likely a part-time endeavor for you. You won't have time to sit at the computer and monitor the Forex market all day. Forex signals can be delivered to you throughout the day by professional Forex traders to give you a heads-up on what's going on in the market. You can receive the signals, and then place the signals for buy or sell. Forex signals are basically "suggested" buy and sell points with price targets and stop-loss levels delivered by fx signal providers to traders. They may be delivered by email, instant messenger, cellphone, live currency trading systems or direct to your Forex signal metatrader on your desktop. Forex trading is a risky business and it takes some time to master the art of Forex trading signals. There are a number of fx signal providers but before you choose, you need to make sure you have done your homework. Always ask for the Free signals to deliver for 3 to 5 days and test those signals in your Demo Account. The main characteristics of Forex trading signals to be aware of are as follows; Cost: monthly subscription Complexity: Simple "one email a day" OR Full-Service Control: You keep full control OR the signal provider trades your a/c for you Most Forex trade signals charge a very modest subscription fee, usually in the region of USD $80 - $400 per month. If you're new to Forex trading, you probably realize how important it is to make the right trading decisions. One wrong trading move can drastically harm your portfolio while a good move can bring tremendous profits. That's why trading signals are so important. Once you've tried a Forex demo account for practice and created a strategy that works for you, you can add trading signal services as a useful tool in your Forex trading. With online Forex, finding a trading signal service is easier than ever. In their simplest form a Forex trading signal will send you a Forex alert email once a day listing trade set ups for the next 24 hours. Some Forex signal providers offer a free trial service, thus allowing currency traders to sample the signals to assess their worth. This is a helpful step, as it allows the trader to consider the quality and reliability of the signals before paying money. This is a crucial element in the research process, and weeds out the providers who want money upfront as they are not confident in their ability to call profitable trades. This is a good service that you can try for free for 3 to 5 days. Various fx signal providers offer a few complimentary services along with the featured ones. Look for a fx signal company that provides email support, phone assistance and even mentoring to their clients. This is of great value, especially to new traders. They assign their time assisting traders in taking buy/sell decisions. Forex traders depend upon and trust the recommendations of these professional signal providers, while making investing decision in the Forex market Forex signals are not meant to be a magic solution to all your Forex problems. They are designed to inform you about the market. Forex business timing is extremely crucial; a trader can earn millions or lose even more depending upon the his timely or untimely actions. Besides, being the biggest market on the face of earth - it generates business activity of almost 3 trillion USD, it operates around the clock, all over the globe, making it thus impossible for a trader to stay vigilant all the time about market fluctuation and probable changes therein. Therefore a trader needs alarms and indicators to get knowledge about the possible opportunities and probable pitch points. Hence the need for Forex signal or alerts. Basically Forex alert or signal is a communication or intimation to the trader indicating the ripe time to buy/sell and the suitable price to pay/ask. Most of the time, such signals and alerts are provided by trained professionals, either individual or companies. When choosing a Forex signal service, be sure the company offers the type of signal alerts you need. Every person is different. Some require computer or email alerts, while others are not accurate Forex signals are made for both professional traders and although new traders. The best Forex signals trading system is going to cover multiple situations on the Forex market. For instance the best Forex trade signals is going to cover all major currencies like GBP, USD, and EUR at all times the market is open, not only for specific situation. Simply to get the full value of your Forex trade you must know what is happening in regards to all the major currencies. The Forex system should also be able to give you at least 1-3 Forex trading signal alerts a day. Some Forex trading signals are high volume scalpers, calling many trades in a day aiming to profit a handful of pips on each. Others only call a few trades a day, aiming to profit 20 - 80 pips on each single trade. Forex trading signal providers help you in minimizing risks or losses in trading. Forex signals are generally given on a daily updated basis and all are contingent on factual market analysis and behavioral flow and not on mere hearsay and other speculations. The signals are calculated and generated by using different indicators such as trends, moving average, Elliott waves, Bollinger bands, Fibonacci series, etc. In spite of that, some uses strategies like: Pip Maximizer Method 1 Pip Maximizer Method 2 Pip Reversal Method Pip Divergence Method Instant Pip Method Pip Retracement Method Quantum Pip Strategy ... to give profitable and accurate signals. The following question I wish to raise, is the abundant selection of Forex signals from which we can choose. Because of the variety of service providers, they offer different services, of which we must be aware. The first type of Forex signal provider will just send out trade alerts by email, often daily, sometimes at several intervals throughout the day. Thus you need to have a laptop of email receiving device ready at all times, to gain the most from trading Forex signals. The next type to consider are through EA/Expert Advisors. These types of signals are not good at all because those are the computer oriented programs which can ruin your money within a few trades. But fortunately this is not such a big problem today, as more traders have email reading devices. The most crucial aspect concerning the format you receive the signals, is to ensure that you receive them immediately, and have the capability to act on them straight away - so you have to have immediate access to your Forex brokerage account, and place the trade as soon as you humanly can. A unique benefit of trading Forex signals is that it gives guidance and discipline in a Forex currency trader. Forex profit signals service providers send you alerts when the conditions are right for the trade. They use cutting-edge technology which constantly monitor all major currency pairs for generating technical indicators. Forex signal generators produce Forex signals which are indicators of ideal trading opportunities. These are certain algorithmic patterns which have been evident in successful Forex trades throughout the years. These Forex signals are then fed onto the program of Forex automated EA or Expert Advisors. This program will then either make Forex trading decisions for the individual while s/he is away from the computer or advice the individual about what to do. Forex EAs act like wizards which monitor currency ratings through online Forex Trading Platforms. One can look at Forex signals as triggers of commands which allow the automated system to function. Forex signals can immeasurably add to the profits of a Forex trader. How to Receive Forex Signals: Forex signal services are available to provide signals to you around the clock. These services usually have professional Forex traders who monitor the market 24/7 and provide you with up-to-date information. These services often charge a monthly or yearly subscription fee for their services. The methods used to deliver the Forex signals to you can vary from one service to the next. Signals can be sent through email alerts, to your phone or cell phone, through your pager, or even through a pop-up software system that will show a screen on your computer each time a signal is sent. The services also vary in how they present information to you. Some will provide live charts to give you more insight as to what as happening in the market. Time frame for which the Forex trading signals are generated is equally important. Few trading signals can be valid only for a few minutes or an hour; others may have recommendations that are valid for a day or more. If the Forex trading signal providers generate signals for shorter time frame, you need to monitor the market frequently. Some Forex signal service providers offer add-on services like email or mobile alerts. The service provider should have end-to-end technical support for the customers. Even with experienced traders calling your trades, it's prudent risk management to never ever risk more than 3% of your initial capital on any one trade, preferably only 1%. So, if for example your initial capital, (or to put it another way, the maximum you can afford to lose) is let's say 5,000, the position size you take on each trade should be such that if the trade hit your stop loss, your maximum loss would be no more than 1% x 5,000 = 50. Forex signal providers render Forex business quite a bit easy for traders, especially those who are relatively new in the business. Forex signal generation and provision can be either manual or automated and it provides entry/exit points of the trade streak for major or already chosen currency pairs. In manual signal generation system a simple trade signal is provided by the single provider. In automated signal generation system, the Forex system not only intimates and alerts the trade to either enter or exit the trade, but some times makes the deal by operating in synchronization with the trader's bank or broker. Initially Forex signals and alerts used to come in the form of telephone calls and facsimiles. Now as we have stepped into the era of information revolution which has brought forth amazingly advanced digital technology, Forex signals and alerts generation and provision system has also advanced and become much more sophisticated and quick. Now these alerts come in the form of e-mails, SMS (Short Message Service, a way of sending text messages to mobile devices), or desktop software. However with trading Forex signals, there is no such chance to over trade your account. It is absolutely possible to learn the mental aspects of trading, by following a set of rules, and not to deviate from those rules. Many trading Forex signals provide you with a complete set of instructions in order to take the trade. Frequently the signal will have multiple exits, which enable a trader to take money off the table in small steps. So this enables the currency trader to input all of these prices into his trading platform when he gets the signals, and then to switch off the computer. As for any purchase, it is essential that the Forex trader first does his research into the more effective trading Forex signal service for him or her. This involves a lot of careful research, and reading various reviews and testimonials of the service in question. Before I go, in conclusion, the trader is strongly advised to practice using the trading Forex signals on a demo account first, so that the Forex trader can totally test out the profitability of the signals. This has an supplementary benefit for a complete new, as it will enable the currency trader to become familiar with the trading platform, and reduce the possibility of making any mistakes. Whenever possible, go for a free demo account and then try your forex signals for a few days before becoming a paid member. Forex trading does involve some planning and strategy building so be prepared for a steep learning curve before trading with real money! I'm going to start by telling you some cool facts about the FOREX market. As you may already know, FOREX is the acronym for "The Foreign Exchange Market." This market concerns itself with the buying and selling of the currencies of just about every country on earth. This market is BIG! So big, in fact, it's hard to wrap your mind around the size of it. Listen. The daily average volume of FOREX is: Almost 5 TRILLION Dollars Per Day! I'm going to try to bring that fact home for you: The New York Stock Exchange has a daily volume of approximately 50 billion dollars. That means the FOREX is 100 times larger than the NYSE Actually, the daily volume of the FOREX is triple the size of all other investment markets combined! In spite of its size, the FOREX does not have a physical location or a central exchange. It operates through an electronic network of people, banks and companies that specialize in trading one currency for another. Almost all FOREX trades are executed on the internet by someone sitting at a computer with a high-speed connection. So, if you don't like working with a computer you may as well stop reading... because... you will be left out. Still with me? Good. The Only 24 Hour Financial Market In The Whole World Because the FOREX does not have a physical location or a central exchange, it is able to operate on a 24 hour basis leapfrogging from one time zone to another across the major financial centers of the world. The FOREX market actually follows the sun around the globe... because... as one country is closing for the day, another is just opening up. This market is open 24 hours a day, six days a week from 5:00 PM Sunday (East Coast Time) to 4:00 PM Friday (East Coast Time). This 24 hour access combined with its huge trading volume makes this... The Most Liquid Market On Earth! Except for Saturdays, you can enter or exit the FOREX market anytime night or day. This market has virtually no gaps whatsoever and your stop-loss orders are almost guaranteed. Can you imagine that? The multi-trillion dollar liquidity, combined with 24-hour trading access virtually guarantees your stop-loss orders will be executed without slippage. Just try to get that kind of guarantee from your stockbroker! The stock, futures and options markets cannot offer you this guarantee because the limited trading hours create frequent gap opens. Nearly all Forex brokers make sure their hours of operation coincide with the hours of operation of the global FOREX market. Let's see, what else? Oh, yeah, no one can corner the market. The FOREX market is so huge and has so many global participants that no single individual nor entity... not even a central bank... can control the market for any significant period of time. Plus, There Is No Insider Trading! Because of the vast size of the global FOREX market and its non-centralized nature, there is no chance whatsoever for disruptions caused by insider trading. There is less chance for fraud in the FOREX than in any other investment market. Best of all forex can never become zero but stocks can become zero and majority of the options expire worthless. There are no commissions. Yep, you read it right. No exchange fees, no closing fees, no government fees, no brokerage fees. This all adds up to a very low retail transaction cost. If you select your broker properly, your round-trip transaction cost could be as low as .07 percent. And know this, a very desirable by-product of extremely high liquidity is almost instantaneous transactions executed with blinding speed. You can leverage your trades by a factor of 50 to 1, 100 to 1 and even 400 to 1. Not only that, you can trade with a very low margin with relative safety compared to the disastrous potential of margin trading found in other financial markets. Also it is tax free income if the country you reside has no capital gain tax. And finally, if you get really great at currency trading, your potential financial reward is so big it can make your head swim!
https://preview.redd.it/gp18bjnlabr41.jpg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6054e7f52e8d52da403016139ae43e0e799abf15 Download PDF of this article here:https://docdro.id/6eLgUPo In light of the recent fall in oil prices due to the Saudi-Russian dispute and dampening demand for oil due to the lockdowns implemented globally, O&G stocks have taken a severe beating, falling approximately 50% from their highs at the beginning of the year. Not spared from this onslaught is Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (Hibiscus), a listed oil and gas (O&G) exploration and production (E&P) company. Why invest in O&G stocks in this particularly uncertain period? For one, valuations of these stocks have fallen to multi-year lows, bringing the potential ROI on these stocks to attractive levels. Oil prices are cyclical, and are bound to return to the mean given a sufficiently long time horizon. The trick is to find those companies who can survive through this downturn and emerge into “normal” profitability once oil prices rebound. In this article, I will explore the upsides and downsides of investing in Hibiscus. I will do my best to cater this report to newcomers to the O&G industry – rather than address exclusively experts and veterans of the O&G sector. As an equity analyst, I aim to provide a view on the company primarily, and will generally refrain from providing macro views on oil or opinions about secular trends of the sector. I hope you enjoy reading it! Stock code: 5199.KL Stock name: Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5199 Company website: https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/
Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL) is an oil and gas (O&G) upstream exploration and production (E&P) company located in Malaysia. As an E&P company, their business can be basically described as: · looking for oil, · drawing it out of the ground, and · selling it on global oil markets. This means Hibiscus’s profits are particularly exposed to fluctuating oil prices. With oil prices falling to sub-$30 from about $60 at the beginning of the year, Hibiscus’s stock price has also fallen by about 50% YTD – from around RM 1.00 to RM 0.45 (as of 5 April 2020). https://preview.redd.it/3dqc4jraabr41.png?width=641&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ba0e8614c4e9d781edfc670016a874b90560684 https://preview.redd.it/lvdkrf0cabr41.png?width=356&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f250a713887b06986932fa475dc59c7c28582e While the company is domiciled in Malaysia, its two main oil producing fields are located in both Malaysia and the UK. The Malaysian oil field is commonly referred to as the North Sabah field, while the UK oil field is commonly referred to as the Anasuria oil field. Hibiscus has licenses to other oil fields in different parts of the world, notably the Marigold/Sunflower oil fields in the UK and the VIC cluster in Australia, but its revenues and profits mainly stem from the former two oil producing fields. Given that it’s a small player and has only two primary producing oil fields, it’s not surprising that Hibiscus sells its oil to a concentrated pool of customers, with 2 of them representing 80% of its revenues (i.e. Petronas and BP). Fortunately, both these customers are oil supermajors, and are unlikely to default on their obligations despite low oil prices. At RM 0.45 per share, the market capitalization is RM 714.7m and it has a trailing PE ratio of about 5x. It doesn’t carry any debt, and it hasn’t paid a dividend in its listing history. The MD, Mr. Kenneth Gerard Pereira, owns about 10% of the company’s outstanding shares.
Reserves (Total recoverable oil) & Production (bbl/day)
To begin analyzing the company, it’s necessary to understand a little of the industry jargon. We’ll start with Reserves and Production. In general, there are three types of categories for a company’s recoverable oil volumes – Reserves, Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources. Reserves are those oil fields which are “commercial”, which is defined as below: As defined by the SPE PRMS,Reservesare “… quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions.” Therefore, Reserves must be discovered (by drilling, recoverable (with current technology), remaining in the subsurface (at the effective date of the evaluation) and “commercial” based on the development project proposed.) Note that Reserves are associated with development projects. To be considered as “commercial”, there must be a firm intention to proceed with the project in a reasonable time frame (typically 5 years, and such intention must be based upon all of the following criteria:) - A reasonable assessment of the future economics of the development project meeting defined investment and operating criteria;- A reasonable expectation that there will be a market for all or at least the expected sales quantities of production required to justify development;- Evidence that the necessary production and transportation facilities are available or can be made available; and- Evidence that legal, contractual, environmental and other social and economic concerns will allow for the actual implementation of the recovery project being evaluated. Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources are further defined as below: -Contingent Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets discovered volumes but is not (yet commercial (as defined above); and)-Prospective Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets as yet undiscovered volumes. In the industry lingo, we generally refer to Reserves as ‘P’ and Contingent Resources as ‘C’. These ‘P’ and ‘C’ resources can be further categorized into 1P/2P/3P resources and 1C/2C/3C resources, each referring to a low/medium/high estimate of the company’s potential recoverable oil volumes: - Low/1C/1P estimate: there should be reasonable certainty that volumes actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate;- Best/2C/2P estimate: there should be an equal likelihood of the actual volumes of petroleum being larger or smaller than the estimate; and- High/3C/3P estimate: there is a low probability that the estimate will be exceeded. Hence in the E&P industry, it is easy to see why most investors and analysts refer to the 2P estimate as the best estimate for a company’s actual recoverable oil volumes. This is because 2P reserves (‘2P’ referring to ‘Proved and Probable’) are a middle estimate of the recoverable oil volumes legally recognized as “commercial”. However, there’s nothing stopping you from including 2C resources (riskier) or utilizing 1P resources (conservative) as your estimate for total recoverable oil volumes, depending on your risk appetite. In this instance, the company has provided a snapshot of its 2P and 2C resources in its analyst presentation: https://preview.redd.it/o8qejdyc8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3ab9be8f83badf0206adc982feda3a558d43e78 Basically, what the company is saying here is that by 2021, it will have classified as 2P reserves at least 23.7 million bbl from its Anasuria field and 20.5 million bbl from its North Sabah field – for total 2P reserves of 44.2 million bbl (we are ignoring the Australian VIC cluster as it is only estimated to reach first oil by 2022). Furthermore, the company is stating that they have discovered (but not yet legally classified as “commercial”) a further 71 million bbl of oil from both the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, as well as the Marigold/Sunflower fields. If we include these 2C resources, the total potential recoverable oil volumes could exceed 100 million bbl. In this report, we shall explore all valuation scenarios giving consideration to both 2P and 2C resources. https://preview.redd.it/gk54qplf8br41.png?width=489&format=png&auto=webp&s=c905b7a6328432218b5b9dfd53cc9ef1390bd604 The company further targets a 2021 production rate of 20,000 bbl (LTM: 8,000 bbl), which includes 5,000 bbl from its Anasuria field (LTM: 2,500 bbl) and 7,000 bbl from its North Sabah field (LTM: 5,300 bbl). This is a substantial increase in forecasted production from both existing and prospective oil fields. If it materializes, annual production rate could be as high as 7,300 mmbbl, and 2021 revenues (given FY20 USD/bbl of $60) could exceed RM 1.5 billion (FY20: RM 988 million). However, this targeted forecast is quite a stretch from current production levels. Nevertheless, we shall consider all provided information in estimating a valuation for Hibiscus. To understand Hibiscus’s oil production capacity and forecast its revenues and profits, we need to have a better appreciation of the performance of its two main cash-generating assets – the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. North Sabah oil field https://preview.redd.it/62nssexj8br41.png?width=1003&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd78f86d51165fb9a93015e49496f7f98dad64dd Hibiscus owns a 50% interest in the North Sabah field together with its partner Petronas, and has production rights over the field up to year 2040. The asset contains 4 oil fields, namely the St Joseph field, South Furious field, SF 30 field and Barton field. For the sake of brevity, we shall not delve deep into the operational aspects of the fields or the contractual nature of its production sharing contract (PSC). We’ll just focus on the factors which relate to its financial performance. These are: · Average uptime · Total oil sold · Average realized oil price · Average OPEX per bbl With regards to average uptime, we can see that the company maintains relative high facility availability, exceeding 90% uptime in all quarters of the LTM with exception of Jul-Sep 2019. The dip in average uptime was due to production enhancement projects and maintenance activities undertaken to improve the production capacity of the St Joseph and SF30 oil fields. Hence, we can conclude that management has a good handle on operational performance. It also implies that there is little room for further improvement in production resulting from increased uptime. As North Sabah is under a production sharing contract (PSC), there is a distinction between gross oil production and net oil production. The former relates to total oil drawn out of the ground, whereas the latter refers to Hibiscus’s share of oil production after taxes, royalties and expenses are accounted for. In this case, we want to pay attention to net oil production, not gross. We can arrive at Hibiscus’s total oil sold for the last twelve months (LTM) by adding up the total oil sold for each of the last 4 quarters. Summing up the figures yields total oil sold for the LTM of approximately 2,075,305 bbl. Then, we can arrive at an average realized oil price over the LTM by averaging the average realized oil price for the last 4 quarters, giving us an average realized oil price over the LTM of USD 68.57/bbl. We can do the same for average OPEX per bbl, giving us an average OPEX per bbl over the LTM of USD 13.23/bbl. Thus, we can sum up the above financial performance of the North Sabah field with the following figures: · Total oil sold: 2,075,305 bbl · Average realized oil price: USD 68.57/bbl · Average OPEX per bbl: USD 13.23/bbl Anasuria oil field https://preview.redd.it/586u4kfo8br41.png?width=1038&format=png&auto=webp&s=7580fc7f7df7e948754d025745a5cf47d4393c0f Doing the same exercise as above for the Anasuria field, we arrive at the following financial performance for the Anasuria field: · Total oil sold: 1,073,304 bbl · Average realized oil price: USD 63.57/bbl · Average OPEX per bbl: USD 23.22/bbl As gas production is relatively immaterial, and to be conservative, we shall only consider the crude oil production from the Anasuria field in forecasting revenues.
Valuation (Method 1)
Putting the figures from both oil fields together, we get the following data: https://preview.redd.it/7y6064dq8br41.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a4120563a011cf61fc6090e1cd5932602599dc2 Given that we have determined LTM EBITDA of RM 632m, the next step would be to subtract ITDA (interest, tax, depreciation & amortization) from it to obtain estimated LTM Net Profit. Using FY2020’s ITDA of approximately RM 318m as a guideline, we arrive at an estimated LTM Net Profit of RM 314m (FY20: 230m). Given the current market capitalization of RM 714.7m, this implies a trailing LTM PE of 2.3x. Performing a sensitivity analysis given different oil prices, we arrive at the following net profit table for the company under different oil price scenarios, assuming oil production rate and ITDA remain constant: https://preview.redd.it/xixge5sr8br41.png?width=433&format=png&auto=webp&s=288a00f6e5088d01936f0217ae7798d2cfcf11f2 From the above exercise, it becomes apparent that Hibiscus has a breakeven oil price of about USD 41.8863/bbl, and has a lot of operating leverage given the exponential rate of increase in its Net Profit with each consequent increase in oil prices. Considering that the oil production rate (EBITDA) is likely to increase faster than ITDA’s proportion to revenues (fixed costs), at an implied PE of 4.33x, it seems likely that an investment in Hibiscus will be profitable over the next 10 years (with the assumption that oil prices will revert to the mean in the long-term).
Valuation (Method 2)
Of course, there are a lot of assumptions behind the above method of valuation. Hence, it would be prudent to perform multiple methods of valuation and compare the figures to one another. As opposed to the profit/loss assessment in Valuation (Method 1), another way of performing a valuation would be to estimate its balance sheet value, i.e. total revenues from 2P Reserves, and assign a reasonable margin to it. https://preview.redd.it/o2eiss6u8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=03960cce698d9cedb076f3d5f571b3c59d908fa8 From the above, we understand that Hibiscus’s 2P reserves from the North Sabah and Anasuria fields alone are approximately 44.2 mmbbl (we ignore contribution from Australia’s VIC cluster as it hasn’t been developed yet). Doing a similar sensitivity analysis of different oil prices as above, we arrive at the following estimated total revenues and accumulated net profit: https://preview.redd.it/h8hubrmw8br41.png?width=450&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d23f0f9c3dafda89e758b815072ba335467f33e Let’s assume that the above average of RM 9.68 billion in total realizable revenues from current 2P reserves holds true. If we assign a conservative Net Profit margin of 15% (FY20: 23%; past 5 years average: 16%), we arrive at estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves ofRM 1.452 billion. Given the current market capitalization of RM 714 million, we might be able to say that the equity is worth about twice the current share price. However, it is understandable that some readers might feel that the figures used in the above estimate (e.g. net profit margin of 15%) were randomly plucked from the sky. So how do we reconcile them with figures from the financial statements? Fortunately, there appears to be a way to do just that. Intangible Assets I refer you to a figure in the financial statements which provides a shortcut to the valuation of 2P Reserves. This is the carrying value of Intangible Assets on the Balance Sheet. As of 2QFY21, that amount was RM 1,468,860,000 (i.e. RM 1.468 billion). https://preview.redd.it/hse8ttb09br41.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=82e48b5961c905fe9273cb6346368de60202ebec Quite coincidentally, one might observe that this figure is dangerously close to the estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion we calculated earlier. But why would this amount matter at all? To answer that, I refer you to the notes of the Annual Report FY20 (AR20). On page 148 of the AR20, we find the following two paragraphs: E&E assets comprise of rights and concession and conventional studies. Following the acquisition of a concession right to explore a licensed area, the costs incurred such as geological and geophysical surveys, drilling, commercial appraisal costs and other directly attributable costs of exploration and appraisal including technical and administrative costs, are capitalised as conventional studies, presented as intangible assets. E&E assets are assessed for impairment when facts and circumstances suggest that the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount. The Group will allocate E&E assets to cash generating unit (“CGU”s or groups of CGUs for the purpose of assessing such assets for impairment. Each CGU or group of units to which an E&E asset is allocated will not be larger than an operating segment as disclosed in Note 39 to the financial statements.) Hence, we can determine that firstly, the intangible asset value represents capitalized costs of acquisition of the oil fields, including technical exploration costs and costs of acquiring the relevant licenses. Secondly, an impairment review will be carried out when “the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount”, with E&E assets being allocated to “cash generating units” (CGU) for the purposes of assessment. On page 169 of the AR20, we find the following: Carrying amounts of the Group’s intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO are reviewed for possible impairment annually including any indicators of impairment. For the purpose of assessing impairment, assets are grouped at the lowest level CGUs for which there is a separately identifiable cash flow available. These CGUs are based on operating areas, represented by the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC (“North Sabah”, the Anasuria Cluster, the Marigold and Sunflower fields, the VIC/P57 exploration permit (“VIC/P57”) and the VIC/L31 production license (“VIC/L31”).) So apparently, the CGUs that have been assigned refer to the respective oil producing fields, two of which include the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. In order to perform the impairment review, estimates of future cash flow will be made by management to assess the “recoverable amount” (as described above), subject to assumptions and an appropriate discount rate. Hence, what we can gather up to now is that management will estimate future recoverable cash flows from a CGU (i.e. the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields), compare that to their carrying value, and perform an impairment if their future recoverable cash flows are less than their carrying value. In other words, if estimated accumulated profits from the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are less than their carrying value, an impairment is required. So where do we find the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields? Further down on page 184 in the AR20, we see the following: Included in rights and concession are the carrying amounts of producing field licenses in the Anasuria Cluster amounting to RM668,211,518 (2018: RM687,664,530, producing field licenses in North Sabah amounting to RM471,031,008 (2018: RM414,333,116)) Hence, we can determine that the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. But where do we find the future recoverable cash flows of the fields as estimated by management, and what are the assumptions used in that calculation? Fortunately, we find just that on page 185: 17 INTANGIBLE ASSETS (CONTINUED) (a Anasuria Cluster) The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for Anasuria Cluster during the current financial year. In the previous financial year, due to uncertainties in crude oil prices, the Group has assessed the recoverable amount of the intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO relating to the Anasuria Cluster. The recoverable amount is determined using the FVLCTS model based on discounted cash flows (“DCF” derived from the expected cash in/outflow pattern over the production lives.) The key assumptions used to determine the recoverable amount for the Anasuria Cluster were as follows: (i Discount rate of 10%;) (ii Future cost inflation factor of 2% per annum;) (iii Oil price forecast based on the oil price forward curve from independent parties; and,) (iv Oil production profile based on the assessment by independent oil and gas reserve experts.) Based on the assessments performed, the Directors concluded that the recoverable amount calculated based on the valuation model is higher than the carrying amount. (b North Sabah) The acquisition of the North Sabah assets was completed in the previous financial year. Details of the acquisition are as disclosed in Note 15 to the financial statements. The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for North Sabah during the current financial year. Here, we can see that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field was estimated based on a DCF of expected future cash flows over the production life of the asset. The key assumptions used by management all seem appropriate, including a discount rate of 10% and oil price and oil production estimates based on independent assessment. From there, management concludes that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field is higher than its carrying amount (i.e. no impairment required). Likewise, for the North Sabah field. How do we interpret this? Basically, what management is saying is that given a 10% discount rate and independent oil price and oil production estimates, the accumulated profits (i.e. recoverable amount) from both the North Sabah and the Anasuria fields exceed their carrying amounts of RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. In other words, according to management’s own estimates, the carrying value of the Intangible Assets of RM 1.468 billionapproximates the accumulated Net Profit recoverable from 2P reserves. To conclude Valuation (Method 2), we arrive at the following:
Accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves
RM 1.452 billion
RM 1.468 billion
By now, we have established the basic economics of Hibiscus’s business, including its revenues (i.e. oil production and oil price scenarios), costs (OPEX, ITDA), profitability (breakeven, future earnings potential) and balance sheet value (2P reserves, valuation). Moving on, we want to gain a deeper understanding of the 3 statements to anticipate any blind spots and risks. We’ll refer to the financial statements of both the FY20 annual report and the 2Q21 quarterly report in this analysis. For the sake of brevity, I’ll only point out those line items which need extra attention, and skip over the rest. Feel free to go through the financial statements on your own to gain a better familiarity of the business. https://preview.redd.it/h689bss79br41.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed47fce6a5c3815dd3d4f819e31f1ce39ccf4a0b Income Statement First, we’ll start with the Income Statement on page 135 of the AR20. Revenues are straightforward, as we’ve discussed above. Cost of Sales and Administrative Expenses fall under the jurisdiction of OPEX, which we’ve also seen earlier. Other Expenses are mostly made up of Depreciation & Amortization of RM 115m. Finance Costs are where things start to get tricky. Why does a company which carries no debt have such huge amounts of finance costs? The reason can be found in Note 8, where it is revealed that the bulk of finance costs relate to the unwinding of discount of provision for decommissioning costs of RM 25m (Note 32). https://preview.redd.it/4omjptbe9br41.png?width=1019&format=png&auto=webp&s=eaabfc824134063100afa62edfd36a34a680fb60 This actually refers to the expected future costs of restoring the Anasuria and North Sabah fields to their original condition once the oil reserves have been depleted. Accounting standards require the company to provide for these decommissioning costs as they are estimable and probable. The way the decommissioning costs are accounted for is the same as an amortized loan, where the initial carrying value is recognized as a liability and the discount rate applied is reversed each year as an expense on the Income Statement. However, these expenses are largely non-cash in nature and do not necessitate a cash outflow every year (FY20: RM 69m). Unwinding of discount on non-current other payables of RM 12m relate to contractual payments to the North Sabah sellers. We will discuss it later. Taxation is another tricky subject, and is even more significant than Finance Costs at RM 161m. In gist, Hibiscus is subject to the 38% PITA (Petroleum Income Tax Act) under Malaysian jurisdiction, and the 30% Petroleum tax + 10% Supplementary tax under UK jurisdiction. Of the RM 161m, RM 41m of it relates to deferred tax which originates from the difference between tax treatment and accounting treatment on capitalized assets (accelerated depreciation vs straight-line depreciation). Nonetheless, what you should take away from this is that the tax expense is a tangible expense and material to breakeven analysis. Fortunately, tax is a variable expense, and should not materially impact the cash flow of Hibiscus in today’s low oil price environment. Note: Cash outflows for Tax Paid in FY20 was RM 97m, substantially below the RM 161m tax expense. https://preview.redd.it/1xrnwzm89br41.png?width=732&format=png&auto=webp&s=c078bc3e18d9c79d9a6fbe1187803612753f69d8 Balance Sheet The balance sheet of Hibiscus is unexciting; I’ll just bring your attention to those line items which need additional scrutiny. I’ll use the figures in the latest 2Q21 quarterly report (2Q21) and refer to the notes in AR20 for clarity. We’ve already discussed Intangible Assets in the section above, so I won’t dwell on it again. Moving on, the company has Equipment of RM 582m, largely relating to O&G assets (e.g. the Anasuria FPSO vessel and CAPEX incurred on production enhancement projects). Restricted cash and bank balances represent contractual obligations for decommissioning costs of the Anasuria Cluster, and are inaccessible for use in operations. Inventories are relatively low, despite Hibiscus being an E&P company, so forex fluctuations on carrying value of inventories are relatively immaterial. Trade receivables largely relate to entitlements from Petronas and BP (both oil supermajors), and are hence quite safe from impairment. Other receivables, deposits and prepayments are significant as they relate to security deposits placed with sellers of the oil fields acquired; these should be ignored for cash flow purposes. Note: Total cash and bank balances do not include approximately RM 105 m proceeds from the North Sabah December 2019 offtake (which was received in January 2020) Cash and bank balances of RM 90m do not include RM 105m of proceeds from offtake received in 3Q21 (Jan 2020). Hence, the actual cash and bank balances as of 2Q21 approximate RM 200m. Liabilities are a little more interesting. First, I’ll draw your attention to the significant Deferred tax liabilities of RM 457m. These largely relate to the amortization of CAPEX (i.e. Equipment and capitalized E&E expenses), which is given an accelerated depreciation treatment for tax purposes. The way this works is that the government gives Hibiscus a favorable tax treatment on capital expenditures incurred via an accelerated depreciation schedule, so that the taxable income is less than usual. However, this leads to the taxable depreciation being utilized quicker than accounting depreciation, hence the tax payable merely deferred to a later period – when the tax depreciation runs out but accounting depreciation remains. Given the capital intensive nature of the business, it is understandable why Deferred tax liabilities are so large. We’ve discussed Provision for decommissioning costs under the Finance Costs section earlier. They are also quite significant at RM 266m. Notably, the Other Payables and Accruals are a hefty RM 431m. What do they relate to? Basically, they are contractual obligations to the sellers of the oil fields which are only payable upon oil prices reaching certain thresholds. Hence, while they are current in nature, they will only become payable when oil prices recover to previous highs, and are hence not an immediate cash outflow concern given today’s low oil prices. Cash Flow Statement There is nothing in the cash flow statement which warrants concern. Notably, the company generated OCF of approximately RM 500m in FY20 and RM 116m in 2Q21. It further incurred RM 330m and RM 234m of CAPEX in FY20 and 2Q21 respectively, largely owing to production enhancement projects to increase the production rate of the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, which according to management estimates are accretive to ROI. Tax paid was RM 97m in FY20 and RM 61m in 2Q21 (tax expense: RM 161m and RM 62m respectively).
There are a few obvious and not-so-obvious risks that one should be aware of before investing in Hibiscus. We shall not consider operational risks (e.g. uptime, OPEX) as they are outside the jurisdiction of the equity analyst. Instead, we shall focus on the financial and strategic risks largely outside the control of management. The main ones are: · Oil prices remaining subdued for long periods of time · Fluctuation of exchange rates · Customer concentration risk · 2P Reserves being less than estimated · Significant current and non-current liabilities · Potential issuance of equity Oil prices remaining subdued Of topmost concern in the minds of most analysts is whether Hibiscus has the wherewithal to sustain itself through this period of low oil prices (sub-$30). A quick and dirty estimate of annual cash outflow (i.e. burn rate) assuming a $20 oil world and historical production rates is between RM 50m-70m per year, which considering the RM 200m cash balance implies about 3-4 years of sustainability before the company runs out of cash and has to rely on external assistance for financing. Table 1: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and exchange rates https://preview.redd.it/gxnekd6h9br41.png?width=670&format=png&auto=webp&s=edbfb9621a43480d11e3b49de79f61a6337b3d51 The above table shows different EBITDA scenarios (RM ‘m) given different oil prices (left column) and USD:MYR exchange rates (top row). Currently, oil prices are $27 and USD:MYR is 1:4.36. Given conservative assumptions of average OPEX/bbl of $20 (current: $15), we can safely say that the company will be loss-making as long as oil remains at $20 or below (red). However, we can see that once oil prices hit $25, the company can tank the lower-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 50m (orange), while at RM $27 it can sufficiently muddle through the higher-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 70m (green). Hence, we can assume that as long as the average oil price over the next 3-4 years remains above $25, Hibiscus should come out of this fine without the need for any external financing. Customer Concentration Risk With regards to customer concentration risk, there is not much the analyst or investor can do except to accept the risk. Fortunately, 80% of revenues can be attributed to two oil supermajors (Petronas and BP), hence the risk of default on contractual obligations and trade receivables seems to be quite diminished. 2P Reserves being less than estimated 2P Reserves being less than estimated is another risk that one should keep in mind. Fortunately, the current market cap is merely RM 714m – at half of estimated recoverable amounts of RM 1.468 billion – so there’s a decent margin of safety. In addition, there are other mitigating factors which shall be discussed in the next section (‘Opportunities’). Significant non-current and current liabilities The significant non-current and current liabilities have been addressed in the previous section. It has been determined that they pose no threat to immediate cash flow due to them being long-term in nature (e.g. decommissioning costs, deferred tax, etc). Hence, for the purpose of assessing going concern, their amounts should not be a cause for concern. Potential issuance of equity Finally, we come to the possibility of external financing being required in this low oil price environment. While the company should last 3-4 years on existing cash reserves, there is always the risk of other black swan events materializing (e.g. coronavirus) or simply oil prices remaining muted for longer than 4 years. Furthermore, management has hinted that they wish to acquire new oil assets at presently depressed prices to increase daily production rate to a targeted 20,000 bbl by end-2021. They have room to acquire debt, but they may also wish to issue equity for this purpose. Hence, the possibility of dilution to existing shareholders cannot be entirely ruled out. However, given management’s historical track record of prioritizing ROI and optimal capital allocation, and in consideration of the fact that the MD owns 10% of outstanding shares, there is some assurance that any potential acquisitions will be accretive to EPS and therefore valuations.
As with the existence of risk, the presence of material opportunities also looms over the company. Some of them are discussed below: · Increased Daily Oil Production Rate · Inclusion of 2C Resources · Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating Increased Daily Oil Production Rate The first and most obvious opportunity is the potential for increased production rate. We’ve seen in the last quarter (2Q21) that the North Sabah field increased its daily production rate by approximately 20% as a result of production enhancement projects (infill drilling), lowering OPEX/bbl as a result. To vastly oversimplify, infill drilling is the process of maximizing well density by drilling in the spaces between existing wells to improve oil production. The same improvements are being undertaken at the Anasuria field via infill drilling, subsea debottlenecking, water injection and sidetracking of existing wells. Without boring you with industry jargon, this basically means future production rate is likely to improve going forward. By how much can the oil production rate be improved by? Management estimates in their analyst presentation that enhancements in the Anasuria field will be able to yield 5,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 2,500 bbl/day). Similarly, improvements in the North Sabah field is expected to yield 7,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 5,300 bbl/day). This implies a total 2021 expected daily production rate from the two fields alone of 12,000 bbl/day (current: 8,000 bbl/day). That’s a 50% increase in yields which we haven’t factored into our valuation yet. Furthermore, we haven’t considered any production from existing 2C resources (e.g. Marigold/Sunflower) or any potential acquisitions which may occur in the future. By management estimates, this can potentially increase production by another 8,000 bbl/day, bringing total production to 20,000 bbl/day. While this seems like a stretch of the imagination, it pays to keep them in mind when forecasting future revenues and valuations. Just to play around with the numbers, I’ve come up with a sensitivity analysis of possible annual EBITDA at different oil prices and daily oil production rates: Table 2: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and daily oil production rates https://preview.redd.it/jnpfhr5n9br41.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbe4b512bc17f576d87529651140cc74cde3d159 The left column represents different oil prices while the top row represents different daily oil production rates. The green column represents EBITDA at current daily production rate of 8,000 bbl/day; the orange column represents EBITDA at targeted daily production rate of 12,000 bbl/day; while the purple column represents EBITDA at maximum daily production rate of 20,000 bbl/day. Even conservatively assuming increased estimated annual ITDA of RM 500m (FY20: RM 318m), and long-term average oil prices of $50 (FY20: $60), the estimated Net Profit and P/E ratio is potentially lucrative at daily oil production rates of 12,000 bbl/day and above. 2C Resources Since we’re on the topic of improved daily oil production rate, it bears to pay in mind the relatively enormous potential from Hibiscus’s 2C Resources. North Sabah’s 2C Resources alone exceed 30 mmbbl; while those from the yet undiagnosed Marigold/Sunflower fields also reach 30 mmbbl. Altogether, 2C Resources exceed 70 mmbbl, which dwarfs the 44 mmbbl of 2P Reserves we have considered up to this point in our valuation estimates. To refresh your memory, 2C Resources represents oil volumes which have been discovered but are not yet classified as “commercial”. This means that there is reasonable certainty of the oil being recoverable, as opposed to simply being in the very early stages of exploration. So, to be conservative, we will imagine that only 50% of 2C Resources are eligible for reclassification to 2P reserves, i.e. 35 mmbbl of oil. https://preview.redd.it/mto11iz7abr41.png?width=375&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9028ab0816b3d3e25067447f2c70acd3ebfc41a This additional 35 mmbbl of oil represents an 80% increase to existing 2P reserves. Assuming the daily oil production rate increases similarly by 80%, we will arrive at 14,400 bbl/day of oil production. According to Table 2 above, this would yield an EBITDA of roughly RM 630m assuming $50 oil. Comparing that estimated EBITDA to FY20’s actual EBITDA:
FY21 (incl. 2C)
Daily oil production (bbl/day)
Average oil price (USD/bbl)
Average OPEX/bbl (USD)
EBITDA (RM ‘m)
Hence, even conservatively assuming lower oil prices and higher OPEX/bbl (which should decrease in the presence of higher oil volumes) than last year, we get approximately the same EBITDA as FY20. For the sake of completeness, let’s assume that Hibiscus issues twice the no. of existing shares over the next 10 years, effectively diluting shareholders by 50%. Even without accounting for the possibility of the acquisition of new oil fields, at the current market capitalization of RM 714m, the prospective P/E would be about 10x. Not too shabby. Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating Hibiscus shares have recently been hit by a one-two punch from oil prices cratering from $60 to $30, as a result of both the Saudi-Russian dispute and depressed demand for oil due to coronavirus. This has massively increased supply and at the same time hugely depressed demand for oil (due to the globally coordinated lockdowns being implemented). Given a long enough timeframe, I fully expect OPEC+ to come to an agreement and the economic effects from the coronavirus to dissipate, allowing oil prices to rebound. As we equity investors are aware, oil prices are cyclical and are bound to recover over the next 10 years. When it does, valuations of O&G stocks (including Hibiscus’s) are likely to improve as investors overshoot expectations and begin to forecast higher oil prices into perpetuity, as they always tend to do in good times. When that time arrives, Hibiscus’s valuations are likely to become overoptimistic as all O&G stocks tend to do during oil upcycles, resulting in valuations far exceeding reasonable estimates of future earnings. If you can hold the shares up until then, it’s likely you will make much more on your investment than what we’ve been estimating.
Wrapping up what we’ve discussed so far, we can conclude that Hibiscus’s market capitalization of RM 714m far undershoots reasonable estimates of fair value even under conservative assumptions of recoverable oil volumes and long-term average oil prices. As a value investor, I hesitate to assign a target share price, but it’s safe to say that this stock is worth at least RM 1.00 (current: RM 0.45). Risk is relatively contained and the upside far exceeds the downside. While I have no opinion on the short-term trajectory of oil prices, I can safely recommend this stock as a long-term Buy based on fundamental research.
Strategies are a natural way to get the maximum benefit out of algorithmic Trading. Based on the duration of holding the investment, Algo Trading Strategies are classified as Long term and short-term strategies. Automated TradingTrading has been enhanced with specific rule-based decision making. Long Term Strategies
Pricing Strategies are more focused on the expected returns
Mathematical model-based Strategies are developed purely based on mathematical calculations, models.
Trend Based Strategies follow market trends. By using the statistics, patterns are studied, and further strategies are developed.
Arbitrage strategies use algorithms to figure out price differences and trade according to opportunities for profit.
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) & strategies, break the large volume of stock into smaller and later issues them according to market conditions to earn more yield.
Implementation shortfall strategy uses algorithms to target involvement in dealing when stock prices are high and vice versa.
Short-Term Strategies Short term strategies are generally executed in Intraday Trading strategies, where assets are bought and sold on the same day. Here stocks are not purchased for investment purpose but to earn the profit by connecting with the stock market trend. Algo trading strategies are incorporated in Intraday Trading to reap more benefits. Following are the Intraday trading strategies using algorithmic TradingTrading:
Reversal trading strategies use algorithms to find out the highest and lowest points of the day. Based on these points as the secure time, price and quantity start reversing; it gives alerts to either buy or sell the assets.
Trend based strategies analyse the trends using Algorithms, and further strategy is developed.
Bull flag trading strategy based on the highest peak and steady decrease in trend during the day. To get the target prices on the patterns of bull flag shape, algorithms are used. Based on these trends, ' strategies are developed.
Pullback Trading Strategy develops the low-risk buying opportunity.
Breakout trading strategy enables us to enter the market when prices change outside a specific range.
3 Efficient Intraday Trading Strategies Used in Algorithmic Trading Algo trading is an automated practical approach to TradingTrading. Strategies make the trading process very fast and much more result-oriented. The trades can be executed to the point of specified price and volume in minimal time. It reduces the losses due to the time lag between the sale and purchase of securities. When the algo trading is used with specific intraday trading strategies, it works amazingly well. Here are a few back-tested strategies used by successful traders as a part of Algo trading. These strategies can undoubtedly lead to maximize profits with the correct execution. 1.Momentum and Trend Based Strategy: It is the most commonly used and most straightforward strategy. There are no complex interpretations or predictions to be made. It is the momentum and trend-based strategy. You need to follow the trends, and the energy in the market and the trades will be executed accordingly. Trade will be based on technical indicators - the moving averages, the price level movements, channel breakouts, etc. If a set of conditions is fulfilled, then automated trading is generated. 2.Arbitrage Strategy: When there is a difference in the cost of the securities on different stock exchanges, Arbitrage profits take place. The algorithm identifies the price difference immediately using the computers and executes a trade to enable buying on the low-priced exchange and sell on the high-priced exchange. Although the cost difference is not too much, here, we can compare the speed and accuracy of Algo trading and manual TradingTrading. This strategy is mostly applicable to forex trading. Once the trade gets executed, arbitrage profits will be credited to the trader. 3.Weighted Average Price Strategy: This is also one of the most popular and efficient strategies. The objective of this strategy is to quick-execute the order to the volume-weighted average price or the time-weighted average price. The orders are executed in small parts. The order is based at either volume-weighted average price or the time-weighted average price in specific opening price in defined time slots. The algorithms are successful in releasing the orders in small parts with efficiency and accuracy in nanoseconds, which may not be possible by human traders. To know more strategies, refer to our Algorithmic Trading Strategies - Part 1.
A Short Story that Describes Imaginary Events and People of Worldwide Calamities and the Aftermath (the 2nd Edition)
The following story, all names, characters, and incidents portrayed in this post are fictitious. No identification with actual persons (living or deceased), places, buildings, and products is intended or should be inferred. However, the LINKS to real-life events and inspiring sources are placed here and there throughout the story. -------- Truth is the Only Light -------- INTRO ☞ [As of 2019] there are plenty of reasons to think the Chinese system will implode spectacularly without Japanese feeling the need to do a thing. — Peter Zaihan, Disunited Nations (Mar 03, 2020) It's apparent that two nations have been engaged in a high-stakes military & economy arms race. The current US admin has been hitting China with waves of tariffs, but that was merely a small part of what's actually going on.         On Oct 11, 2019, when they reached a tentative agreement for the first phase of a trade deal, the fact that China made the concession actually made my jaw drop. From where I sit, it was a worrisome scene. Aren't people saying, when challenging situations are bottled up, they will just grow and mutate into another terrible complications? Admittedly I was not certain how they are going to adhere to the agreement: It left most of the US tariffs (on China's exports) in place, and at the same time, came with an additional USD $200 Billion burden for China over the next two years. This agreement might seem a bit insignificant, but now China would need to purchase almost twice the size of the US products & services they did before the trade war began. With their current economic climate? I murmured, "No way." While watching Trump brag and boast around with said agreement, I expected China would soon come out and fling some improvised excuses in order to delay the document-signing process. It wouldn't be their first time. More importantly, even if China does so, there wouldn't be many (real) counterattack options left for the Trump admin during this year, the US presidential election year. Then, on Jan 16, 2020, the world’s two largest economies actually signed a partial trade agreement aimed at putting the brakes on an 18-month trade war. China would almost surely not sit down but come back to bite, I thought. Enter the worldwide chaos following so called the COVID-19 outbreak. -------- BACKGROUND ☞ Globalists have been heavily investing in China's economy and its components overseas. • Here are a couple of well known names: the Great Old One; George Soros; Koos Bekker; and Bill Gates. • For the sake of convenience, from here on, let's call these globalists, who are foreign investors in China's top tier state-owned/sponsored/controlled enterprises, Team-Z. • Team-Z has adopted big time lackeys like Henry Kissinger or small time ones like Larry Summers, Stephen Hadley, or Bill Browder as matchmakers to court Team-Z for China's top tier enterprises. When Israel's highest echelons chimed in, it has been through Israeli IT companies and the BRI projects. • Naturally, multinational investment banks have also been employed; such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), UBS Group AG (formerly Union Bank of Switzerland), Blackstone Group, Canaccord Genuity, BlackRock, Hermitage, or Mirae Asset. ☞ Note: The Great Old One didn't use any matchmakers, something peasants would need. Because the Great Old One's power level is over 9000. • China's Shanghai clique used to keep the nation's state-sponsored enterprises under their firm grip: Enterprises such as Alibaba Group, Tencent, Baidu, Wanda Group, HNA Group, Anbang Group, Evergrande Group, CEFC Energy and Huawei, all of which Team-Z has massively invested in. • Here is how Shanghai clique and Team-Z, esp. Bill Gates, started to get together:[LINK] • However, in the name of anti-corruption campaign, Xi Jinping & his Princelings have been taking those businesses away from Shanghai clique's hand, and transforming those state-sponsored private enterprises into the state-owned enterprises, declaring the 國進民退 movement. • Slaying Shanghai clique's control =       • 國進民退 + Slaying Shanghai clique's control = [A] [B] [C] • Xi's reign didn't arrive today without challenges though: the BRI projects' poor outcome has frustrated Israel's great expectations. And since the US-China trade war has started, the problems of China's economic systems started to surface, not to mention China's economy has long been decaying. • Coupled with the US-China trade war, the current US admin has been trying to block Huawei from accessing the international financial systems that the US can influence, as well as the US banking systems. This is a good time to remind you again that Bill Gates has had a very close-knit relationship with Huawei. -------- TRADE WAR & INTERNET-BASED COMPANIES ☞ It's the trade war, but why were internet-based companies such as Tencent and Baidu suffering losses? Answer: The state-sponsored companies like Tencent, Baidu, or Huawei have heavily invested in international trade and commodity markets, which are easily influenced by aspects that IMF interest rates, the US sanctions, or trade war can create. Example: Let's say, Tencent invests in a Tehran-based ride-hailing company. Then, through said ride-hailing company, Tencent invests in Iran's petroleum industry. Now, China's most valuable IT company is in international petrochemical trade. The business is going to make great strides until the US imposes trade embargoes oand economic sanctions against Iran. -------- TL;DR China's economy going down = Team-Z losing an astronomical amount of money. ★ Wednesday, Sep 26, 2018 ★ "Gentlemen, you guys might want to do something before it's too bloody late, no? Hisspeechlast night was .... (sniggers) Mr. Gates, now is as good a time as any. Mr.Soros, hm, don't look at melikethat." ".... But," "Yes, Mr. Soros, yourHNAis going down, too. .... Ah,Schwarzmanxiansheng, we're very sorry to learn about Blackstone'sIran&SinopecChinasituation. So, we're guessing, you'd be happy to join Mr. Gates's operation, yes? Of course, We already contactedKissingerxiansheng. ....Okaythen,Gentlemen?" • Now you can take a guess why George Soros has recently been sending out confusing messages regarding Xi Jinping. • Wait, how about Wuhan Institute of Virology? Doesn't this story concern the COVID-19 outbreak? Is the Wuhan Institute also associated with Shanghai clique? Yes, indeed. Here's How Wuhan Institute of Virology and Shanghai Clique are related:[LINK] -------- EIGHT OBJECTIVES ☞ Calling for the tide to be turned, Team-Z and Shanghai clique started to devise the plan. The objectives are: ① By shutting down international trade, crashing world economy, and exploiting its aftermath, the plan should produce an outcome letting Team-Z earn back their loss from the trade war & the US sanctions, and collect additional profits from China's BRI projects & stock markets worldwide, including the US stock markets. • Don't forget this: This point number ① also concerns the developing nations on the BRI with the large deposits of natural resources that Team-Z has invested in through China. If everything comes together nicely, Team-Z will pick up trillions of dollars from those nations alone as if they are light as a feather. Ironically this will reinforce the BRI project governance and mitigate fraud & corruption risks inherent to the international development projects. ② By utilizing the aftermath in the US, a new US administration consisted of pro-Beijing personnels should be fostered at the 2020 election. In a worst-case scenario, the aftermath should be abused enough to make Robert Lighthizer to leave the admin. Mr. Mnuchin could stay. ③ Sometime next year, the phase one trade deal must be reassessed with the new US admin. The reassessment should help China take the upper-hand at the second phase trade talk. ④ The pandemic crisis should yield a situation which allows China to delay the payments for its state-firm offshore debts. With the point number ①, this will give China a breathing room to manage its steadily-fallen forex reserves. ⑤ Since their current turf (in China) is education industry & medical science industry, Shanghai clique will have no issue with earning hefty profits by managing China's export of medical equipments & health care products which can be supplied worldwide mainly by China. People in the west will bent the knees for the clique's support. ☞ Regarding Jiang Zemin's son and medical science industry in China [LINK] ⑥ The outcome should weaken Xi & his Princelings' political power considerably in favour of Shanghai clique & Team-Z. This will let Jiang's Shanghai clique (A) reclaim some of political status & business interest controls they have lost to Xi & his Princelings. • And once this point number ⑥, with the point number ② , is realized, it would be much easier for the clique to (B) recover their huge assets hidden overseas that the current US admin or Xi & his Princelings have frozen. ⑦ Combining good old bribery with sex, the outcome should support China to re-secure control over the US governors. Once the plan is executed successfully, those governors would desperately need solutions to local economic problems and unemployment. ⑧ Lastly, implementing an e-ID system in the US similar to Beijing's Alipay and WeChat could be the cherry on top of the operation's entire outcomes. Who's supporting such a system worldwide? None other than Microsoft and Rockefeller Foundation. ಠ_ಠ -------- OLD COMRADE BECOMES A NEW RECRUIT ☞ They were afraid more talents were needed. The main target was the world’s largest economy with the most powerful military capability, after all. They ended up asking Mr. Fridman to see Lord Putin about that. The old Vova was going through a lot nowadays, people said. It could be because his nation's energy business to Europeseems to be hitting wall after wall. He is said to have enough on his plate with no end in sight, so maybe he'll join. ★ Monday, Jan 15, 2018 ★ "(pours a drink for himself) I know, but. ... What would happen if Bashar falls? How long you think you can keep it up? .... Erdogan is many things (sniggers) but he's nevergentle. (sips his drink slowly) WhenBenji'sEastMed Pipeline starts to actively compete, then what? They got the Chinamoneynow. ....Vagitand his buddies will be very unhappy. You know that. Not great, Vova." "...." "Ah, you mean what are we going to do? Hm? Hm. I'll tell you what we're going to do. This time, we're going to bankrupt the US shale gas sector. Then, of course, we can maybe convince Benji to take their time with the pipeline. Perhaps for good. (sips his drink slowly) Don't worry, Vova, It'll work. You worry too much. We'll come out the other side stronger." "So, how long until they set it off? "Hahaa, yes. They'll soon put all things in place. While marching in place, they'll play the tune a couple of months before the next sochelnik." "Nearly 20 months to brace things here, then?" "(nod slowly in happiness) Hm. Оторви́сь там, оттопы́рься, Vova" -------- USEFUL IDIOTS ☞ When the directive came, these idiots answered claiming they would be gladly "on it." All in the name of rejuvenating China's economy without grasping the real objective prevailing throughout the entire operation. Thing is, they would never realize what they are to Team-Z & their Asian overlord until it’s too late. Who are they? It's A and B, not A or B: (A) the American corporations that are too big to fail and have suffered a considerable loss because of the US-China trade war. Among those corporations, (B) the ones that have been structured with massive interest-profit relationships in/with China. "We need China in order for the US as a nation to continue being prosper," they've been shouting. No surprise there, because they've enjoyed the strides of extraordinary profits over the years while the US middle class has continued to shrink. But, in 2019 when China's stock markets nosedived for the first time since 2015 and China's authorities in financial stability & resiliency fumbled their response; it wiped that smile off their face. Still, they'll keep behaving not to offend their Asian overlord, nonetheless. -------- PERFECT PLAN ☞ Many crucial components had to come into play all at once in order to cause World War I. If one of the components were missing or different, it is unlikely that the World War I as we know of could be produced. ① The US in 2019: Overbought bubbles + Over borrowed corporations ② The US in 2020: It's an Election Year. ③ Russia has been dumping US Treasuries for the past few years. ④ Russia has been hoarding golds as if they were recreating Inca Empire. ⑤ China in 2019: Immense & long term financial troubles has started to surface. ⑥ China in 2020: The phase-one deal has been signed; leaving most of tariffs on China intact and adding another $200 Billion burden for China. ⑦ Team-Z sets up a situation in the US where some event(s) would freeze the US supply chains & demand for the next three to ten months. • Just like the 9/11, the event will be initiated at the clique's own region. However, unlike in China, the US will report multiple epicentres simultaneously. • And the CDC and the US medical task force will carry on with a number of sabotage acts, to secure enough time for the infected yet untested in those US epicentres to spread plenty.    • Here's a feasible timeline of the operation. ⑧ Then, the BOOM: Team-Z (a) manipulates the markets to make sure MM will have liquidity concerns (b) when they need it most. The (c) bottomed out oil price will be an enforcement, which will also wreck the US energy sector as a kicker. The (d) WHO will also join as a disinformation campaign office. • Then a couple of big name investment managers will lead a movement that (will try to) bring back foreign money back to China.   • Meanwhile, in US, the disinformation campaign will continue to be pushed until the second wave of attack arrives. -------- MEASURABLE SHORT-TERM OUTCOME ☞ We're now going through World War III. The global structure laid down by World War II had been shaken by globalization and the rise of China. This pandemic event will shock the structure further. Human history will be divided into Before 2021 and After 2021. ① Outcome pt. 1: Immediate Aftermath [pt.1] [pt.2] ② Outcome pt. 2: The US economy goes deep dive along with world economy, and the only thing Team-Z has to do is to exploit the aftermath which has been thoroughly calculated and eagerly anticipated. — Favoured assessment: There won't be a V curve ever, unless drastic measures taken within the timeframe of four months. Unprecedented market crash, the rapid unemployment acceleration because of the supply-chain shut down, and the near-death security which in turn forces consumer confidence to plummet. We're looking at a super long L shape curve unless the US prepares fast for the second wave of their asymmetric warfare. ③ Outcome pt. 3: Arguably the most important outcome. — Because of the unprecedented shutdown of international trade, the nations heavily rely on exporting natural resources will face the extreme financial threats. What if some of those are emerging markets AND massively in debt to China? What do you think China would do to said nations while the aftermath is hitting the globe hard? [PDF] Something comparable to Latin American Debt Crisis will happen. ④ Outcome pt. 4: Not that significant compared to the others but still notable outcome. — The world will need Shanghai clique's help to get medical products and equipments. -------- WHAT'S NEXT? ☞ Several analysts have discussed off the record that next it'd be a proxy warfare not using armed conflicts but with spreading a galaxy of counterfeit-currency across every possible channels. Coincidently, on Dec 13, 2017, Business Insider reported in an article "A $100 counterfeit 'supernote' found in South Korea could have been made in North Korea" that:
"It was the first of a new kind of supernote ever found in the world," Lee Ho-Joong, head of KEB Hana Bank's anti-counterfeit centre told Agence France-Presse.
Reporting the same news, The Telegraph published an article on Dec 11, 2017:
"It seems that whoever printed these supernotes has the facilities and high level of technology matching that of a government", said Lee Ho-jung, a bank spokesman from KEB Hana Bank in South Korea. "They are made with special ink that changes colour depending on the angle, patterned paper and Intaglio printing that gives texture to the surface of a note".
UK tax laws in 2020 - how do they apply to stablecoin lending/borrowing?
Hi All, I had a quick search on the sub for UK Tax threads, couldn’t find much within the last year so I’ve come to ask about a specific use case. My plan:
I have cash holdings in fiat (Pounds Sterling) which are not earning much interest
I want to exchange the fiat cash for a stablecoin pegged to fiat (such as DAI, which is pegged to the USD - I am aware it is not backed by USD ). I could do this on something like coinbase pro
I want to then lend the stablecoins on platforms like Compound
I expect to eventually use the stablecoins to make purchases either in crypto or in fiat once converted back.
I found two articles on UK tax laws re-crypto assets with a breakdown of how to calculate capital-gains-tax in a few scenarios here for a very neat breakdown by use case and this one - both from November 2019. Given my plan above, I feel like all I’m doing is effectively
Foreign Exchange of currency from GBP to USD (in the form of a pegged stablecoin)
Lending USD (stablecoin)
Receiving interest in USD (stablecoin)
Spending USD as a stablecoin, or foreign exchange of USD (stablecoin) back to GBP fiat and spending GBP fiat
I won’t be speculating on the price of any crypto asset, because the only crypto I will hold will be pegged to the USD. If this whole thing is treated as an asset trade and taxed as Capital-Gains, does that mean I should be checking to see what the difference in rate of exchange is between USD/GBP at time of exchange and eventual time of exchange back and paying CGT based on that? Presumably one doesn’t normally need to do this when exchanging fiat for fiat and back again? Do I need to pay any specific tax on the interest earned whilst lending the stablecoin? Would this be taxed as income? Does this also mean I get taxed twice (on the interest earned, and the FOREX change when going back to GBP fiat? TBH, I’m not planning on doing this for any huge amount at least to start with, maybe £1000 GBP. I am a higher rate tax payer for income (40%) , so I’m keen to know what personal allowances get impacted by this, and whether it’s worth it all to achieve the interests rates available for lending via apps like Compound compared to fiat savings accounts and other alternatives like P2P. Thanks for any advice help!
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